华尔街看涨水平创近20年新高，分析师警告：物极必反_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

华尔街看涨水平创近20年新高，分析师警告：物极必反

华尔街见闻2021-08-15

企业强劲的利润复苏正在催化华尔街的乐观情绪，认为美国股市将延续牛市，但已有分析师对市场的“自满自大”发出了警告。多位分析师预计，企业可能面临利润率下行的压力，将很难保持目前的高盈利增长，从而对股市产生影响。华尔街看涨水平创20年来新高据彭博统计，在标普500指数包含的所有股票中，约有56%被分析师列为“买入”，这是2002年以来的最高水平。同时，欧洲的Stoxx 600指数成分股中，约52%...

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187

龙腾虎跃168
·2021-08-16
希望是真的！
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云里梦里飞
·2021-08-16
666
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1
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Youn7276
·2021-08-16
阅！
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7
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- 铭发:
  🤔🤔🤔
  2021-08-16
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- leewei:
  good
  2021-08-18
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小虎小虎小小虎
·2021-08-16
666
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2
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- 小虎小虎小小虎:
  666
  2021-08-16
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Linda2240
·2021-08-16
[微笑]
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4
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- Linda2240:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-16
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hangyuliang
·2021-08-16
[微笑]
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- hangyuliang:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-16
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yuliang559
·2021-08-16
[微笑]
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- yuliang559:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-16
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liuxiangwei
·2021-08-16
[微笑]
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- liuxiangwei:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-16
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Mingzu
·2021-08-16
[微笑]
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- Mingzu:
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  2021-08-16
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juanjuanjuan
·2021-08-15
[呆住]
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2
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- juanjuanjuan:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-15
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Eclim
·2021-08-15
[微笑]
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2
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龙腾虎乐
·2021-08-15
抓紧时间清仓？[捂脸] [捂脸] 还是富贵险中求[鬼脸]
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3
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- 云里梦里飞:
  吓韭菜呢
  2021-08-16
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jy17
·2021-08-15
Good
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3
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Ivan55
·2021-08-15
哇好
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4
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神话者
·2021-08-15
[微笑]
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1
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AdeCK
·2021-08-15
要到头了吗？
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1
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SDLiuSG
·2021-08-15
拐点在路上
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3
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- CJing:
  [财迷]
  2021-08-15
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- SDLiuSG:
  我等很久了
  2021-08-15
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LittleGuiLin
·2021-08-15
好呀
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3
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- 高明兴_8399:
  准吗？
  2021-08-15
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- Diaschy:
  厲害
  2021-08-15
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Amy1224
·2021-08-15
又来，天天物极必反，我的空单都快爆了，也没见反
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6
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- LittleGuiLin:
  [开心]
  2021-08-15
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- hhyw:
  好
  2021-08-16
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Ysw16888
·2021-08-15
赞我回复我
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9
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- Wandakdash:
  赞
  2021-08-16
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- 要把梦藏在树叶里:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-15
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- 反卡:
  回复你啦
  2021-08-15
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things will turn against each other","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8772bd65aeb4b04f292ba6b6f00e6c39","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"企业强劲的利润复苏正在催化华尔街的乐观情绪，认为美国股市将延续牛市，但已有分析师对市场的“自满自大”发出了警告。\n多位分析师预计，企业可能面临利润率下行的压力，将很难保持目前的高盈利增长，从而对股市产生影响。\n华尔街看涨水平创20年来新高\n据彭博统计，在标普500指数包含的所有股票中，约有56%被分析师列为“买入”，这是2002年以来的最高水平。同时，欧洲的Stoxx 600指数成分股中，约52%被分析师们列为“买入”，这也是10年来的高点。\n在亚洲，这一数字跃升至75%，至少是2010年以来的最高水平。这反映了在强劲的企业财报季后，市场看多情绪的再次高涨。\n虽然分析师历来看涨股市，但在股市持续上涨和企业盈利超出预期的情况下，他们变得更加乐观了。\n信安环球资产配置(Principal Global Asset Allocation)首席投资官Todd Jablonski在一份报告中表示：\n\n 推动风险资产需求的不仅仅是整体金融环境和低利率，预计到2022年，市场将出现巨大的基本面改善。\n\n企业盈利强劲 推高股市\n在从疫情中复苏后，美国企业的盈利正以2008年以来最强劲的速度增长。\n根据FactSet的数据，标普500指数中蓝筹股的利润已经飙涨了约90%，销售额也上升了约四分之一；欧洲企业的利润增长71%，比预期高16%。\n与此同时，标普500指数所包含公司的平均利润率从上一季度的12.8%跃升到了创纪录的13%，也是2008年以来的最高值。\n这些数据显著高于华尔街分析师在财报发布前的预测。在3月底，分析师预计企业利润平均增长53%，营业收入平均增长16%。\n这帮助推动美国股市创下了新高。\n今年到目前为止，标普500指数上涨超过18%。该指数已经从去年3月的低点上涨了近一倍，当时疫情的侵袭使全球金融市场陷入混乱。\n\n据金融时报报道，贝莱德全球配置基金的投资组合经理Russ Koesterich说：\n\n 经济增长正以几十年来最快的速度运行，这对企业盈利来说是个巨大的推动力。\n\n在上调了企业的盈利增长预期后，高盛和瑞士信贷的分析师近期紧接着上调了12个月内对标普500指数的预期。\n根据FactSet的数据，华尔街分析师对标普500指数未来12个月的预期为4949点，预计涨幅为11%。\n股市仍存在下行风险\n尽管第二季度企业的利润率预计将继续保持在较高水平，但Koesterich警告称，在未来几个季度，企业无法转嫁雇员工资等成本的上升，利润率压力将对股市和企业的高估值带来考验。\n而美国企业盈利面临的另一个不利因素是，在拜登推行全球最低税的压力之下，企业会缴纳更多的税款。\n据金融时报报道，纽约梅隆银行的高级市场策略师Lale Akoner指出：\n\n 随着市场开始将这些更高的税收纳入评估体系，企业盈利增长可能已经见顶，并将在未来几个月内放缓。我预计，在10月至12月之间，市场将开始表现出这一点。\n\n对于投资者来说，情况似乎更具挑战性。因为股市的乐观情绪已经处于饱和状态，总体估值居于历史高位使看多也变得不利。\n摩根大通资产管理公司首席全球策略师David Kelly表示：\n\n 尽管对标普指数来说，这是一个表现十分亮眼的季度，但问题是投资者将如何做出反应？与世界其它地区相比，美国企业的总体估值仍然较高，企业将很难维持这一高位。\n\n华尔街见闻此前提及，美国银行策略师Savita Subramanian预测，标普500年底相对目前有14%的下跌空间，回调风险正在聚集。\nJones Trading Annapolis的ETF主管Dave Lutz在一份报告中表示：\n\n 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