十大券商一周策略：市场流动性趋紧，结构再平衡提前开启_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

十大券商一周策略：市场流动性趋紧，结构再平衡提前开启

格隆汇2021-07-26

上周，A股市场小幅反弹，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别按周涨0.31%、0.38%、1.08%，科创50指数反弹2.51%，两市日均成交额超万亿。而本周将迎来政治局会议和美联储议息会议，又会对市场带来怎样的影响？后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 1. 中信证券：市场流动性趋紧结构再平衡提前开启市场流动性开始趋紧，预计板块极致分化提前终结，但市场整体大幅修正风险很低，稳中向好...

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href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477382><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周，A股市场小幅反弹，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别按周涨0.31%、0.38%、1.08%，科创50指数反弹2.51%，两市日均成交额超万亿。而本周将迎来政治局会议和美联储议息会议，又会对市场带来怎样的影响？\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：市场流动性趋紧 结构再平衡提前开启\n市场流动性开始趋紧，预计板块极致分化提前终结，但市场整体大幅修正风险很低，稳中向好...</p>\n\n<a 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schedule","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781645ea3ddd6ecd19cb2b40428533db","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"上周，A股市场小幅反弹，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别按周涨0.31%、0.38%、1.08%，科创50指数反弹2.51%，两市日均成交额超万亿。而本周将迎来政治局会议和美联储议息会议，又会对市场带来怎样的影响？\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：市场流动性趋紧 结构再平衡提前开启\n市场流动性开始趋紧，预计板块极致分化提前终结，但市场整体大幅修正风险很低，稳中向好的宏观基本面支撑结构再平衡，成长板块从高位赛道轮动到低位，部分消费和医药行业具备左侧布局价值。\n首先，近期市场增量资金流入趋缓，场内活跃投资者仓位快速接近年初高点，存量资金恐慌性调仓，后续调仓效应趋于减弱，配置型外资年内首次持续流出新能源板块，流入消费板块。\n其次，宏观层面流动性仍然宽松，抱团瓦解的市场冲击弱于一季度，下半年宏观经济驱动力和亮点犹存，基本面支撑市场结构再平衡，传统核心资产负面预期已充分反映，再平衡过程中有估值修复空间。\n配置层面，结构再平衡过程中“高切低”将成为主要特征，部分景气回升的消费和医药行业当前就具备左侧配置价值。\n2. 国泰君安：大势拉升未完待续 科技成长行情将持续领涨\n大势拉升未完待续，风格上盈利决胜负而非估值比高低之下，科技成长行情将持续领涨且高低切换短期难现，同时信用预期边际向宽下中小市值风格亦将持续占优。行业配置上，推荐新能源车/半导体/光伏/医美/化妆品/家电/券商等。\n3. 中金：政策导向更加清晰，成长占优\n建议配置成长为主，兼顾周期；利率走低背景下，关注REITs及稳健高股息个股。\n1）高景气度、中国已具备竞争力或正在壮大的产业链：电动车产业链、光伏、科技硬件与软件、电子半导体、部分制造业资本品等。估值趋高，短线波动加大，但中期可能依然积极；\n2）泛消费行业：在泛消费，包括日常用品、轻工家居、酒店旅游、家电、汽车及零部件、医药及医疗器械等领域自下而上择股；\n3）逐步降低周期配置但关注部分结构有利或具备结构性成长特征的周期：有色金属如锂等，化工以及受益于财富及资管大发展趋势的金融龙头。部分稳健高股息资产或个股也值得关注。\n4. 中信建投：股票市场结构性行情持续 仍坚持景气主线\n现阶段股票市场结构性行情持续。仍然坚持景气主线，选择成长行业作为优先配置的方向。我们持续推荐新能源、新能源车、半导体、精细化工等行业。\n对于市场关心的教育双减政策，建投认为，K12教育行业的针对的是供给端，直接限制了企业定价权、业务拓展权利，上市融资权利。这直接影响了行业的商业模式。K12教育行业即使发力非学科培训产品，仍然会被严格监管。企业在战略调整方面存在着难度。且政策预计仍然具有持续性。\n5. 海通证券：下半年市场中枢有望不断抬高 智能制造为代表的中盘成长更有弹性\n对于下半年市场保持乐观态度，宏观流动性维持中性且微观资金面较为充裕，企业盈利依旧在扩张，市场的风险偏好也正上升，三大因素共同作用有望支撑市场中枢不断抬高。行业配置上智能制造为代表的中盘成长更有弹性。\n可从三个方向挖掘投资机会：①信息技术的应用：包括人工智能、工业软件、工业互联网等领域；②新能源技术的应用：包括智能汽车等领域；③传统制造技术改进与升级：包括智能家电、工业机器人等领域。\n6. 安信证券：券商搭台 成长更上一层楼\n成长继续成为市场中期主线的三大逻辑：①经济增长中枢长期下行：成长性稀缺；②中性偏松的货币政策基调：流动性利于成长风格；③成长赛道逻辑不被证伪：风格切换难以发生当前依然成立。\n从短期来看，行业高景气和基金配置方向的调整使得新能源、半导体等热门赛道持续维持强势，未来成长股行情有望向军工、券商等高景气的前期滞涨板块和汽车等近期出现边际改善的行业扩散，市场中期仍有望进一步向中小盘延伸。\n7. 兴业证券：市场整体上没有系统性风险，平淡中寻找新奇\n兴业证券认为，展望后市，中期维持“下半年宏观有惊无险、 A股不是熊市、行情先抑后扬”的基本判断，市场整体上没有系统性风险，平淡中寻找新奇，结构性机会精彩纷呈，科创长牛方兴未艾。\n但是，短期A股市场面临海外市场波动风险、国内化解存量风险过程中的阵痛，以及教育、互联网等监管政策变化带来的负面影响，所以，短期内市场进入颠簸期，科创等前期热点的赚钱难度提升，甚至有调整风险。\n8. 华安证券：风险偏好扰动 市场整体向上空间有限\n近期无论是增长层面还是流动性层面都相对比较平稳，但存在一些会对市场风险偏好造成持续影响的因素。\n考虑到一方面房地产和地方政府债务两大领域存在主动调控，二方面即将召开的政治局会议关于经济和政策表述可能存在超预期、美联储议息会议及美国三季度增长大幅下滑可能对美股造成扰动进而传导A股，三方面8月15日7000亿MLF到期，央行操作存在一定变数可能引发流动性预期甚至货币政策宽松预期变化等因素，市场整体向上空间有限，行业配置角度更加倾向于逐渐由成长转向均衡，规避高估值板块。\n9. 平安证券：资金面宽松提振A股市场情绪\n平安证券认为，资金面宽松有利于提振市场情绪，成长风格有望继续受资金偏爱；而上游资源品行业利润普遍高增，国内“保供稳价”政策不及预期，后续周期板块或仍有阶段性机会。因此，市场风格可能从之前的成长、周期分化，转向相对均衡。\n10. 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