“5月抛售，清空两手”？华尔街分析师似乎不这么看_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

“5月抛售，清空两手”？华尔街分析师似乎不这么看

新浪财经综合2021-05-05

五月抛售？股市5-10月平均回报率不如前期，市场亦已在近期见顶，但策略师仍旧表示“季节性投资策略”是错误的。摘要 1．华尔街的格言“5月抛售，清空两手”指的是5月至10月期间，市场的平均表现不如前六个月。2．策略师表示，这并不意味着投资者应在5月撤出市场，并在年底重返市场。每年都不一样，留在市场上的钱有更好的回报。3．一位策略师表示，任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。但另...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

鹿尧ning
·2021-05-06
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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SanGuo
·2021-05-06
机构早就跑了
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1
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GenieWong
·2021-05-06
4月中旬我才学习投资股票...现在都不知从何下手了...
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浴缸潜水员
·2021-05-06
任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。[得意]
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3
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馒头卡喉咙啦
·2021-05-06
抛
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LQML
·2021-05-06
挑战EQ的时候到了
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1
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刘伯温控股
·2021-05-05
今时不同往日这种历史数据已不靠谱[吃瓜]
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收起
- Tsla1000:
  好像对 [思考]
  2021-05-05
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Dannyang
·2021-05-05
管谁说我爱怎么样就怎么样想卖和买是我的事
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2
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半柏子
·2021-05-05
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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2
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Wall Street analysts don't seem to see it that way","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f633c649d86fcab7bcab360f61f79e62","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9},"content_text":"五月抛售？股市5-10月平均回报率不如前期，市场亦已在近期见顶，但策略师仍旧表示“季节性投资策略”是错误的。\n摘要\n\n 1．华尔街的格言“5月抛售，清空两手”指的是5月至10月期间，市场的平均表现不如前六个月。2．策略师表示，这并不意味着投资者应在5月撤出市场，并在年底重返市场。每年都不一样，留在市场上的钱有更好的回报。3．一位策略师表示，任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。但另一位技术人员认为，市场已见顶，这意味着5月和未来几个月可能会很艰难。\n\n今年，“5月抛售，清空两手”的策略在华尔街不怎么受欢迎。\n市场专业人士承认，历史清楚地显示，市场表现最强劲的六个月是11月至4月，但他们也说，这未必是决定投资者一年计划的一个因素。\n瑞士信贷首席美国股市策略师Jonathan Golub表示：“任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。”基于成分股出色的财报表现，Golub周五将年底标普500指数目标价从4300点上调至4600点。他说，平均而言，5月至10月之间的市场表现确实比较疲弱，但这不是出逃股市的理由。\nGolub说：“如果每个5月都和去年5月一样，这就完全合理了。但仅仅将今年与去年相比，你就会发现巨大的反差。去年5月，市场开始走出谷底，而当前的背景已经完全改变了，从去年深受疫情影响，到现在的经济繁荣和收入增长时期。”\n\n“看看我们在这个财报季都收获了什么。美国公司业绩比预期高出22%——这个表现是前所未有的。这一数据是惊人的。”Golub预计第二季度美国公司的财报将更加强劲，这些财报将于7月份发布。\nGolub表示：“我不会在5月抛售，我也不会建议其他人这样做。在这样的市场中，你可能犯的最大错误是太天真，过早退出。你最好多待一会儿，而不是早走。”\n市场见顶？\nCornerstone Macro的首席市场技术人员Carter Worth也认为，一般而言，投资者如果在5月撤出市场，并在10月之前一直不入场，将得不到很好的回报。但他预计，今年市场将进入一段疲弱期。除季节性因素外，他预计市场已见顶。\nWorth研究了季节性趋势，发现从去年11月1日到今年4月30日，道指27.8%的累计涨幅表现是自1896年以来第四强劲的六个月期表现。\n“在11月至4月连续六个月表现特别好后，接下来的六个月将表现平平，” Worth称。他补充说，但在股市强劲上涨之后的任何六个月，都可能出现这种情况。\nWorth表示，从11月到4月，道指前10年的平均涨幅为27.5%，而随后5月到10月的平均涨幅为2.9%。在11月到4月这以六个月为期限表现最好的10个年份里，全年的平均总收益为23.7%。\n根据Worth的分析，从1896年以来的所有年份来看，11月至4月道指平均回报率为5.2%，5月至10月平均回报率为2.1%。所有年份的平均表现是7.3%。\n尽管Worth预计市场已在近期见顶，但他认为季节性投资策略是错误的。他表示：“从1896年至2020年，前六个月的回报率高于后六个月。但大家都知道，到目前为止，最好的策略是年复一年地保持你在市场上的敞口。”\n根据Worth的计算与猜测，从1896年开始，投资者在11月到4月这段时间里投资100万美元，然后在5月到10月间套现，将获得1.644亿美元的回报。在最初的100万美元投资基础上，全年投资的投资者将获得6.726亿美元的回报。\n夏季反弹趋势\n美国银行技术研究策略师Stephen Suttmeier说，标普500指数5月至10月的季节性疲软模式也很明显，但自1928年以来，平均回报率有66%是正值的。\n他说，由于该指数这一六月期的平均正回报率也有2.2%，所以’5月卖出’策略还有许多不足之处。\n他的研究证实了夏季反弹的趋势，而5月至10月期间的下跌是“前轻后重”。\n他在一份报告中写道：“应该是‘5月买进，7/ 8月抛售’，而不是‘5月抛售，清空两手’。月度季节性特征表明，在强劲的4月卖出，在风险规避的5月买入，在7月至8月卖出，9月是一年中最疲软的一个月。”\nSuttmeier指出，在新总统任期的第一年，夏季涨势可能会更强劲，4月和7月市场表现强劲，但5月也会有稳健回报。他写道：“今年春夏季的反弹和秋季的回调会在总统任期第一年被放大，预计4-6月平均上涨5.5%，8-10月平均下跌2.4%。”\nCRFA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall也通过标普等权重500指数（S&P Equal Weight 500）的表现，观察了“5月抛售”现象。该指数给予每只股票相等的权重，而不是标普500指数的市值权重。截至4月30日，标普等权重500指数今年累计上涨了16.2%，是该指数1990年创建以来第三强劲的前四个月开局。\nStovall在一份报告中写道：“投资者现在会问，这个未加权的美国大盘股指标是否走得太远、太快了。“\n他说，历史显示，这种早期的走势通常会在5月进入市场消化阶段。在今年最后三个月出现高于平均水平的涨幅之前，股市在9月份可能还会出现波动。\nCornerstone 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