阿里百亿罚款，靴子落地了吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

阿里百亿罚款，靴子落地了吗？

格隆汇2021-04-12

1中国史上最大罚单国家市场监督管理总局，终于开出了新中国成立以来最大的罚单——4月10日，市场监管总局对阿里巴巴实施“二选一”的垄断行为做出了行政处罚，责令阿里停止违法行为，并处以其2019年中国境内销售额4557.12亿元4%的罚款，计182.28亿元。这是中国有史以来做出的最大罚款，之前对国内企业最大的反垄断罚款是2017年对18家实施价格垄断的聚氯乙烯树脂(PVC)企业处以2016年度相关...

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抱负韭零后
·2021-07-23
该罚！罚少了！阿里不是一般的黑，一个专门框钱的平台。
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全球甩锅王特斯拉
·2021-04-14
腾讯垄断即时通讯游戏是有目共睹的微信不让其他公司发链接怎么都不见罚款
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1
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Justin_L
·2021-04-12
当抓痒，程咬金
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美美滴玩
·2021-04-12
炒巴巴还是多多呢
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小苹果APPLE
·2021-04-12
罚款好过被拆分！这是最近阿里最好的消息了
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小苹果APPLE
·2021-04-12
利空落地是利好[开心]
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hepeguo
·2021-04-12
然后拿这180多亿买阿里的股票[眼眼]
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川大智胜
·2021-04-12
我就说一件事，为什么历来战略正确的马云，这两年频频失误，想明白这事，就知道了。说实话，阿里的开发水平在互联网里面很差的，如果不是战略上总是快人一步，屡屡命中国家方向，不会有今天的阿里，但这个优势怎么来的，现在也怎么失去了，不信，走着看。去年11月，我就给朋友说，几年之内不要碰阿里股票，因为…呵呵呵。君以此始，必以此终。
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- T202112140009回复川大智胜:
  确实。阿里认错了走在双减政策出的当天我没必要跟你捣腾
  2021-11-24
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- T202112140009回复川大智胜:
  你这点钱跟周期配跟我说话吗
  2021-07-23
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- 川大智胜:
  兄弟，我苹果落袋了，你阿里慢慢懂政治吧，祝亏损愉快！
  2021-07-23
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HOPE_5256
·2021-04-12
罚款了，反倒涨价了，和拼多多事件一样
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只赚自己能赚的钱
·2021-04-12
还有个靴子没落地了，蚂蚁金服怎么处理？
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1
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- 亿财纷呈:
  估计也得被磨灭[捂脸]
  2021-04-12
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- 刘杨秋晨:
  阿里不得直接持有蚂蚁的股份，蚂蚁的股份将直接转给阿里的股东
  2021-04-12
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xxyhdd
·2021-04-12
180多吗?人家一年赚多少
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- 川大智胜:
  2019年全年利润的20%，你说多不多
  2021-04-12
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气球气球
·2021-04-12
你听过保护费只交一次的吗？
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- 噜啦啦:
  那要看你在间歇期能不能赚到了。头部的科技大股，有谁没罚过？谷歌，微软，facebook
  2021-04-12
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昨夜梦见你
·2021-04-12
活该
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11:14阿里公开信：处罚是警醒和鞭策对投资者来说，现在最关心的一个问题是，天价罚款落地后，究竟是靴子落地，抄底时机，还是这会是阿里由盛转衰的转折点？2反垄断的威力到底几何？要搞清这个问题，先要搞清反垄断的杀伤力到底多大。表面看来，反垄断的举措对阿里巴巴有许多限制。但从另一方面看，从行业来讲，涉嫌垄断等不正当竞争的不只是阿里巴巴，多家头部互联网公司面临类似监管压力，182.28亿元是开始，却不是结束。这导致的结果是，互联网巨头的“流量围墙”将会逐步打开。阿里申请微信小程序或许就是最好的说明，如此行业创新和竞争环境变得更好，大家都不用陷于过去的“流量焦虑”，只用用心做好产品和服务。就在罚款出台前几日，4月8日，唯品会、京东、美团、饿了么、每日优鲜、盒马鲜生、携程、去哪儿网、如祺出行、滴滴出行等10家互联网平台企业代表在广州签署《平台企业维护公平竞争市场秩序承诺书》，承诺不会采用大数据杀熟手段。山雨欲来风满楼，互联网行业反垄断与反不正当竞争的决心与力度，比此前各界想象的要大。这就类似于电影院看电影，如果一个人站起来了，人人都站起来了，阿里限制腾讯，腾讯也限制阿里。现在法律要求人人坐下，并不全是坏事。在新的游戏规则下，会有新的发展机会。能不能得到这些发展机会，最终取决于各公司的人，这点，我觉得阿里的人是没问题的。在反垄断罚款之后，大家最关心的就是电商的行业格局变化。在可以多平台销售，可以多平台进行促销策略下，拥有和阿里几乎差不多可付费用户的拼多多是不是可以和阿里去掰掰手腕？尽管目前看拼多多似乎对阿里形成了很大的威胁，但两者是有差异的。拼多多虽然在付费用户数实现了逆袭，但是单用户付费金额这块，阿里差不多12000元还是实力碾压拼多多的3000不到。通过便宜形成的用户心智，很难让用户在拼多多上在没有补贴的情况下去花费上千元甚至上万元进行消费。而阿里的发展，明显也是在往天猫这类高品质产品去倾斜。如果看电商的终局，阿里至少能守住半壁江山，但是阿里多年积累的运营效率还是领先于行业，利润份额仍将远超50%。面对“流量型对手”的“高频打低频”，阿里市场份额的下滑在所难免。但只要阿里充分发挥流量外的差异化优势，单纯有流量优势的对手很难撼动阿里地位。所以，个人看来，阿里的护城河依然非常稳固。那我们再看一下182亿的当期具体财务影响。这个182.8亿的罚款对阿里来说并不算特别多，阿里在2020财年（自然年2019Q2-2020Q1）的营业利润就高达930亿，预计2021财年营业收入可以达到1200多亿，也就是大概15个点左右。但实际这是不可能的，因为一是这是一次性损失，二是这件事情股价其实已经反应了，并非突然的。3那些天价反垄断罚款后来怎么样了？我们还可以看下国外天价反垄断后，受影响公司的股价走势。1、Google搜索引擎垄断，欧盟反垄断罚款：2017年6月27日宣布罚27亿，股价-2.47%2、Google滥用市场地位，欧盟反垄断罚款：2018年7月18日宣布罚43.4亿，股价-0.01%，次日-1.14%。3、Facebook“剑桥分析”丑闻：2019年4月24日财报表示可能有50亿美元罚款，25日股价+5.85%；7月12日正式宣布罚50亿，股价+1.81%。4、Facebook人脸识别纠纷：2020年1月29日宣布罚5.5亿美元，1月30日及31日分别-6.14%、3.64%；（后期大幅下跌和FB自身无关，当时美股出现了整体的下跌）从国外的几个大型反垄断案看，短期，几天的维度，可能对股价有一定的情绪影响，但后期基本都能迅速走出反垄断阴影。考虑阿里巴巴因为这个事悬着，股价已经持续下跌，这个罚款下来，很可能反而是靴子落地。4估值再来讲阿里巴巴的估值。讲这个之前先讲个有意思的事情。最近阿里巴巴还有一个重磅新闻就是查理芒格一季度重仓持有了阿里巴巴。要知道，查理芒格已经97岁了，而其投资风格——比如持有的银行股，持有期限都超过30个季度，那么说句得罪老爷子的话，投资阿里巴巴有可能是其人生的最后一笔投资。更有趣的是，芒格曾经在一季度Daily Journal中评价过阿里和马云：“我认为马云评论中国政府的做法非常傲慢。（I think Jack Ma was very arrogant to be telling the Chinese government how dumb they were and how stupid their policies were and so forth. ）这不是马云应该做的。我认为中国人在管理经济方面表现得非常精明，他们在管理经济方面取得了比我们更好的成果，而且我相信他们还能够延续下去。当然我知道中国和美国有不同的传统，我想说，没有任何一个世界上的国家可以像中国这样在很短的时间内让8亿人脱贫，我觉得是让人非常的震惊，也让人非常的羡慕。”老爷子一边说人傲慢，一边买人家公司，这个操作也是非常令人难以捉摸。或许在他看来，马云退出公司管理和董事会，对公司整体长远发展是个利好。也有可能如他对中国经济评论的那样，他看好的是中国整体的经济增长，然后选择一个中国经济的相对稳妥的大Beta股。当然，更重要的可能就是我们要讲的估值。阿里因为负面事件导致的估值非常低。回顾历史，可以发现，好公司，往往只有遇到一个非常坏的但非致命的事件时，才会提供市场一个非常好的投资机会。从投资角度，反垄断罚款很有可能是靴子落地。阿里的股价，反垄断调查开始，走了一波反弹，但随着中国股市跌回调，如今又回到了反垄断调查的同一位置，估值也几乎到了历史最低点，那么未来只要稍有利好，股价就会迎来反弹。所以，从交易层面，从基本面层面，从估值层面，阿里的这个位置，应该说，具备了一定的投资价值，跟着芒格老爷子，大概率不会亏。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":175381475,"gmtCreate":1627007132797,"gmtModify":1627008583830,"author":{"id":"3584342020617291","authorId":"3584342020617291","name":"抱负韭零后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657c8e60c0b57a7f1e00a84f0b97a0cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584342020617291","authorIdStr":"3584342020617291"},"htmlText":"该罚！罚少了！阿里不是一般的黑，一个专门框钱的平台。","listText":"该罚！罚少了！阿里不是一般的黑，一个专门框钱的平台。","text":"该罚！罚少了！阿里不是一般的黑，一个专门框钱的平台。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175381475","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":344808051,"gmtCreate":1618392396373,"gmtModify":1618392396373,"author":{"id":"3481024126652616","authorId":"3481024126652616","name":"全球甩锅王特斯拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3caba10273b9a5953215946af1aee1b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3481024126652616","authorIdStr":"3481024126652616"},"htmlText":"腾讯垄断即时通讯 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怎么都不见罚款","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344808051","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":342843992,"gmtCreate":1618202432716,"gmtModify":1618202432716,"author":{"id":"3501113550178595","authorId":"3501113550178595","name":"Justin_L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4fc9cc59f9e5eff9a291919842f8f5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3501113550178595","authorIdStr":"3501113550178595"},"htmlText":"当抓痒，程咬金","listText":"当抓痒，程咬金","text":"当抓痒，程咬金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342843992","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":342880035,"gmtCreate":1618197991027,"gmtModify":1618197991027,"author":{"id":"3432436743234777","authorId":"3432436743234777","name":"美美滴玩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc1ae21ba1a5565fd00de55225ea9cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3432436743234777","authorIdStr":"3432436743234777"},"htmlText":"炒巴巴还是多多呢","listText":"炒巴巴还是多多呢","text":"炒巴巴还是多多呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342880035","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":342817297,"gmtCreate":1618197972119,"gmtModify":1618197972119,"author":{"id":"3571204857308194","authorId":"3571204857308194","name":"小苹果APPLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e7b181369820fe6d8beb8d18c80c58","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571204857308194","authorIdStr":"3571204857308194"},"htmlText":"罚款好过被拆分！这是最近阿里最好的消息了","listText":"罚款好过被拆分！这是最近阿里最好的消息了","text":"罚款好过被拆分！这是最近阿里最好的消息了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342817297","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":342814190,"gmtCreate":1618197891910,"gmtModify":1618197891910,"author":{"id":"3571204857308194","authorId":"3571204857308194","name":"小苹果APPLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e7b181369820fe6d8beb8d18c80c58","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571204857308194","authorIdStr":"3571204857308194"},"htmlText":"利空落地是利好[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"利空落地是利好[开心]&nbsp;","text":"利空落地是利好[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342814190","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":342812037,"gmtCreate":1618197621629,"gmtModify":1618197621629,"author":{"id":"3456265435629239","authorId":"3456265435629239","name":"hepeguo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/0ecbe4beba14b5cb908efca40539f33d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3456265435629239","authorIdStr":"3456265435629239"},"htmlText":"然后拿这180多亿买阿里的股票[眼眼]&nbsp;","listText":"然后拿这180多亿买阿里的股票[眼眼]&nbsp;","text":"然后拿这180多亿买阿里的股票[眼眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342812037","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":342896401,"gmtCreate":1618195615703,"gmtModify":1618197263783,"author":{"id":"3562672234399883","authorId":"3562672234399883","name":"川大智胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/989d8c7544430b8dc7ff7853062d1f61","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562672234399883","authorIdStr":"3562672234399883"},"htmlText":"我就说一件事，为什么历来战略正确的马云，这两年频频失误，想明白这事，就知道了。说实话，阿里的开发水平在互联网里面很差的，如果不是战略上总是快人一步，屡屡命中国家方向，不会有今天的阿里，但这个优势怎么来的，现在也怎么失去了，不信，走着看。去年11月，我就给朋友说，几年之内不要碰阿里股票，因为…呵呵呵。君以此始，必以此终。","listText":"我就说一件事，为什么历来战略正确的马云，这两年频频失误，想明白这事，就知道了。说实话，阿里的开发水平在互联网里面很差的，如果不是战略上总是快人一步，屡屡命中国家方向，不会有今天的阿里，但这个优势怎么来的，现在也怎么失去了，不信，走着看。去年11月，我就给朋友说，几年之内不要碰阿里股票，因为…呵呵呵。君以此始，必以此终。","text":"我就说一件事，为什么历来战略正确的马云，这两年频频失误，想明白这事，就知道了。说实话，阿里的开发水平在互联网里面很差的，如果不是战略上总是快人一步，屡屡命中国家方向，不会有今天的阿里，但这个优势怎么来的，现在也怎么失去了，不信，走着看。去年11月，我就给朋友说，几年之内不要碰阿里股票，因为…呵呵呵。君以此始，必以此终。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342896401","repostId":2126032240,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6706392,"gmtCreate":16377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