李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？

锦缎2020-08-18

优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：1997年IPO时投资亚马逊，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上，它向...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

CHINaNIO大赢家
·2020-08-19
哈哈哈哈😂我就是要买蔚来股票咋啦
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Godlike
·2020-08-19
看到大家都在骂我就放心了
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Aliaosa
·2020-08-18
脑残文章，“友”军花了多少钱？
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3
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粥喝咖啡
·2020-08-18
脑残文章，这种人也能发文章，这种文章也能发表推送，真的是无脑
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1
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清野星光
·2020-08-18
水军真TM多
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1
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paral
·2020-08-18
李斌：真是难。研发投入多被喷，投入少也被喷[捂脸] [捂脸]
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3
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蔚来哎隆马斯克
·2020-08-18
大哥，看我名字！能等我买了车再发么？我真想买车，现在天天开小牛，夏天热死了
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4
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娟的
·2020-08-18
😊😊
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一刀兄
·2020-08-18
一套技术入门时的门槛是很高，但已经具有技术框架和主体内容之后，除了为完善内容的投资之外，还需要继续往里投什么钱？要投也是投到下一代框架和内容里。爹妈成天光搞研发，不搞生产，还能有你吗？挣了钱才能继续研究下一代的娃。
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6
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Petexu
·2020-08-18
写的什么玩意，对汽车行业了解吗？在换电研发，车身研发，电机电控研发都已经完成的情况下，每年开发一款新车花5亿美元，花费分摊18-24个月，这样算下来，两个车型一起开发，一年30亿差不多呀！毕竟只需要开发车身结构和验证测试什么的，相比前期从0起步要省钱多了。而且很多模块组件都是共用的，说明不久的将来，蔚来不但毛利进一步提升，整体盈利也是指日可待。涨40倍要看从几块钱算起，1.19最低点算起，我觉得不止40倍。按目前总市值来算的话，千亿市值在5年内就能达成。
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杜科长
·2020-08-18
是的 Q2财报以后公司可能区域平庸。等股价到十五块清仓了
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罗罗罗汉
·2020-08-18
如果不向资本低头车子会烧个不停的。这就是吸血的资本。
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看上去很美
·2020-08-18
未来小鹏都是在抢特斯拉的蛋糕。国内纯电市场增长没那么快。就算电池价格大幅下调电动车也对大部分家庭来说也只是有了一辆油车后第二辆开始考虑购买。人家特斯拉是全球卖。特斯拉现在翻一翻都没把握。你TM涨四十倍。你配吗
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波动使者
·2020-08-18
说的太好了，但关我屁事，继续持仓[笑哭]
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5
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绿K
·2020-08-18
這人懂市場嗎，減了研发又BB，真扯
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1
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静静的百合May
·2020-08-18
一本正经的胡说八道。总把假药停的故事拿出来说事儿的人，怕是不懂得政治和人心吧，too young too naive
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3
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史法拉
·2020-08-18
同意加1
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股票小白001
·2020-08-18
二货，通篇胡说八道
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7
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-08-18
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鲜嫩de韭菜
·2020-08-18
现在什么阿猫阿狗都厚着脸皮来点评了，了解蔚来吗？开过蔚来吗？前期巨额研发投入，目前还没新车型，企业投资做调整不很正常吗？
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frankyxu
·2020-08-18
这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。
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Times?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8514a714d6f0f14da3caf618fa219","symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9},"content_text":"优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：1997年IPO时投资亚马逊，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上，它向资本市场低头了。如果一家企业向资本市场投降，向股东投降，最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本，即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本，最典型的莫过于研发投入。前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说，蔚来要涨40倍。呵呵，从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司，研发投入不跟上，股价还能涨40倍的。话说回来，之所以短期利益变得更加重要，也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资，但这并不简单，也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议，如果完不成，蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。01、“投降”趋势蔚来在研发投入上的态度，从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是：没钱砍研发。2019年下半年，蔚来融资不利，现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降，2019Q3，同比+0%；2019Q4，同比-33%；2020Q1，同比-52%。有钱砍研发。2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资，以及六家银行百亿授信，2020Q2，同比-58%。有钱没钱砍研发。8月11日的电话会里，蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的，“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内，我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发，大约5-6亿元/季度的投入，每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。▲图1：蔚来研发费用。来源：公司财报，锦缎。预感有人会拿特斯拉出来说事，这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。现在的特斯拉，从单季度营收来看，当前的蔚来（Q2收入37.2亿元）大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当，后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元（按当时6.28的汇率，折合人民币35.3亿元）。特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级（单个季度三四十亿元）的2013年，四个季度研发费用分别同比下降：-19%，-31%，-10%，-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以？蔚来当然不可以，橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦，我们具体问题具体分析：当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞，四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元，经营的不确定很大。这个时期，研发费用下降无可厚非，下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢，交付量节节攀升：2019年Q4交付量为8224辆，平均89.4辆/天；中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势；2020年Q2交付量为10331辆，平均113.5辆/天；2020年Q3可能也会不错，因为除了ES6和ES8，EC6九月份也要开始交付了。交付量上去了，营收上去了，研发费用却大幅降低，情况就是这么个情况，这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协，一种投降。投降于资本市场的蔚来，对于用户来说，未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。02、实惠减少二季度，蔚来迎来里程碑时刻：毛利率转正且可持续（预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利）。▲图2：蔚来毛利率变化图。来源：公司财报，锦缎。这对股东来说是好事，这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个：第一， 规模效应。这个大家都懂，规模大了，工人更熟练，学习曲线上去了，浪费减少，毛利率自然提高。但是，咱回头来看看，规模确实提高了，今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆，这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗？改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗（去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%）？如果是这样，月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高？所以我们认为，这次毛利率转正过程中，规模效应不是主要的原因。第二，节省BOM。BOM即Bill of Material，物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说，“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率，我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间，例如通过节省BOM等方式，10%是可以实现的，但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间，从各方面来说都有改善机会，但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”过去，蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力，为了用户不惜用料，你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题，也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。而现在，蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制，表示，“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究，实惠减少了。03、魔幻蔚来研发费用变少，实惠可能也会逐步变少，那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心，又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢？答案是：AI的故事，无人驾驶的故事。2020年8月14日，媒体消息：任少卿加盟蔚来，担任“助理副总裁”。▲图3：任少卿简历。引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述：“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊！Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络，它试图拟合残差，训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone；而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术，无敌的存在。而任少卿，基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn，他是一作！”科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点，这简直是男人的Viagra。蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力，任少卿加盟支撑算法，再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”，L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗？在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道，但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人，早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看，Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶，高科技感十足的专利聚类包括：▲图4：Faraday Future专利分类。来源：incopat模式识别302件；导航数据203件；位置测量误差202件；集成驱动185件；门铰链173件。最终，Faraday 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