汇丰出大事了！股价腰斩之后何时见大底？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

汇丰出大事了！股价腰斩之后何时见大底？

格隆汇2020-09-21

汇丰控股因被商务部纳入《不可靠实体清单》和被卷入客户涉嫌诈骗的两则负面消息中，今天大跌5.33%，股价创11年新低。汇丰股价自2018年1月18日创下历史新高以来，一路狂泻跌去60%。如今汇丰的股价已经跌到2008年金融危机期间的水平；而从估值上看，汇丰的估值更是跌到了金融危机的最低点。成立于1865年的汇丰，依靠香港和上海发展壮大成为全球举足轻重的银行，从2008年金融危机之后却止步不前，这两年...

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第一桶小米米
·2020-09-22
不作不死
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1
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ClampL
·2020-09-22
HSBC 🆚 Tiktok
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小韭菜爱收割
·2020-09-22
是因为洗钱吧
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1
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Jimmy洗米家
·2020-09-22
汇丰早就不是欧洲银行了，中资势力介入，两方文化不同，难磨合成好企业
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小石头W
·2020-09-22
我只关心我持仓的平安怎么处理
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- 小石头W:
  有关啊，平安是汇丰的第二大股东
  2020-09-22
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- 天虎:
  难道和平安有关？
  2020-09-22
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leen2020
·2020-09-21
报应，让你诬陷孟晚舟。人在做天在看，汇丰早晚会解散。
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- a晓鸽:
  你信谷歌的却不信中华人民共和国外交部的。汉奸!
  2020-09-22
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- tianchen:
  你确定是诬陷么？谷歌查查啥事。
  2020-09-22
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十分快乐
·2020-09-21
这个票起不来了
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1
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真的英雄
·2020-09-21
继续加大力度裁员吧
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2
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华尔街小街
·2020-09-21
德银，渣打一样暴雷，怕啥
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3
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vvhueric
·2020-09-21
HSBC网银是最垃圾的网银。
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仓又加倍
·2020-09-21
大家是把钱都存在汇丰了？还是咋的？咋没人跟着点赞起哄啊[得意]
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halving?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59b75f3ba22f931913fdcca8ef59eb03","symbols_score_info":{"00005":0.9,"HSBC":0.9},"content_text":"汇丰控股因被商务部纳入《不可靠实体清单》和被卷入客户涉嫌诈骗的两则负面消息中，今天大跌5.33%，股价创11年新低。汇丰股价自2018年1月18日创下历史新高以来，一路狂泻跌去60%。如今汇丰的股价已经跌到2008年金融危机期间的水平；而从估值上看，汇丰的估值更是跌到了金融危机的最低点。成立于1865年的汇丰，依靠香港和上海发展壮大成为全球举足轻重的银行，从2008年金融危机之后却止步不前，这两年更是走向没落之路。汇丰会跟英国的国运一样，在经历“日不落”的光辉后，从此泯然众人吗？正如投资圣经《证券分析》的封面所言：“现在已然衰朽者，将来可能重放异彩；现在备受青睐者，将来却可能黯然失色。”如今深陷困境的汇丰还会不会有重放异彩的机会？汇丰的股价何时才能见大底？01汇丰业绩持续“暴雷”汇丰的股价从2018年初开始下行，前面几个月没有什么利空的因素，主要是港股经历了2017年大牛市的正常回调；而后面，就是各种利空的持续出现。从大环境而言——2018年3月起，特朗普发起了贸易战，而且愈演愈烈，港股和A股都经历了全年的杀跌；2019年香港的政治事件对经济活动造成了很大的负面影响；而今年的新冠肺炎更是让香港的经济雪上加霜。所以这三年港股市场一直处在下行区间中，对汇丰的股价自然就造成了一定的抑制。但是汇丰本身经营上的问题才是其股价大跌的罪魁祸首——从业绩上来看，汇丰近三年虽然营收保持5.67%的年化正增长，但是归母净利润从2019年开始大幅“暴雷”式下滑。截至今年上半年，汇丰归母净利润同比大跌69%至31亿美元（2019年归母净利润同比大跌52.66%），营收也同比下降9%至267亿美元。汇丰2019年和今年上半年归母净利润的大幅下滑主要由两方面导致——信贷损失准备计提和商誉减值。今年上半年，因新冠肺炎对经济造成的巨大影响，使得汇丰计提的预期信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备增加，上半年共计提68.75亿美元，从而进一步摊薄利润。而汇丰2020年上半年的列账基准利润亦包括一项12亿美元的软件无形资产减值，主要来自欧洲；而2019年，汇丰更是商誉减值了73亿美元。2008年后，汇丰在北美洲一直受到洗钱案的指控和罚款。同时，美国十年期国债利率也从2%左右下滑至0%附近，息差的缩小进一步削减了银行业务在北美洲的利润。在欧洲市场方面，欧元区十年期公债和英国的十年期国债收益率从2005年的高位4%左右开始下滑，在2019 年双双徘徊在零利率附近；欧元区的十年期公债利率一度达到了-0.6%的利率水平。不断减少的息差空间挤占了汇丰在欧洲的利润，汇丰在欧洲的税前利润占比由2005 年的30.5%不断缩小变窄，并于2016 年起出现亏损，到2019 年年末，汇丰在欧洲的除税前利润已持续四年亏损。所以，现在汇丰经营上面临的最大问题是，亚洲业务为公司带来的盈利需要持续地给欧美亏损的业务输血。如今，汇丰开始在欧美大量精简架构、削减支出和出售低资本效益的业务。02汇丰的基本盘依旧扎实作为成立了155年的银行，汇丰几乎历经了近代经济史上的种种危机而屹立不倒，跟其稳健经营息息相关。远的各种金融危机不谈，最近的一次危机便是2016年英国脱欧——2016年6月23日英国脱欧公投通过，汇丰一天一度大跌12个点。英镑贬值、英国GDP大幅下降等等利空因素让市场对银行股的未来无比悲观。而汇丰在脱欧公决前就未雨绸缪，及时将20%的办公室搬到巴黎。事后证明汇丰很好地应对了脱欧的风险，英国的经济也没有大家想象中那么糟糕，汇丰的股价也随着业务的好转而迎来一波上攻。这一次，在新冠肺炎和欧美业务亏损的双重压力下，汇丰能不能再次绝地反击呢？银行作为信用型企业，资产质量是决定银行发展的基石。汇丰近几年虽然业绩上不如人意，但是基本盘却是不断地在加强——先来看核心一级资本充足率方面，2008年金融危机后，全球银行业的监管趋严，对资本充足率的要求越来越高。汇丰如今核心一级资本充足率达到15%，为近十年最高，有充足的准备金应对违约风险。而拨贷比方面，过去十年汇丰的总体趋势虽然是向下的，2018和2019年稍微反转，目前是1.01%,高于欧洲银行监管局的标准。不良贷款率方面，汇丰在坏账的控制上，自2010年后就一直比较严格，坏账率逐渐走低，说明了公司的风控能力不断增强，运营上也不段趋于稳定。即使今年上半年全球经济遭受重创，汇丰的不良贷款率也依旧保持在仅为1.43%的水平。汇丰的流动资金覆盖比率在2015 到2018 年间不断上升，在2019年从154%下降至148%，总体而言保持着不断流动性上升的趋势。所以，即使今年经济上有很大的负面不确定性，但是汇丰的资产负债表是十分健康的，足以说明汇丰的基本盘依旧很扎实。03汇丰股价何时见底？当谈到一只股票什么时候是底部的时候，特别是像汇丰这样在两年时间内跌去60%的情况，投资者往往关注的是利空是否释放完毕。因为底部代表公司在交易层面上已经没有太大的抛压，而在股价的启动上需要看到利空出尽后的利好预期。前面谈到的汇丰目前主要的利空有——1、  经济下行导致拨备提升2、  欧美业务亏损拖后腿3、  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