Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021

Seeking Alpha2021-08-13

Summary Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an "easy" quarter. The company is growing at an ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

117

Rteo
·2021-08-13
It still has its potential anyway.
回复
点赞
举报
WKB
·2021-08-13
I believe Tesla can go back to at least $900
回复
4
举报
收起
- Rteo:
  I second that
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
Spaclover
·2021-08-13
U
回复
2
举报
收起
- Spaclover:
  T
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
IZLIN
·2021-08-13
@Meow17 @Sagi08 @simplydkamfor a read!
回复
5
举报
收起
- Meow17:
  OK noted
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
MoneyCub
·2021-08-13
Hmmm. Let’s see and monitor then.
回复
3
举报
Aoyjai
·2021-08-13
It’s okay, with wild expectations fromeven the professionals, big range for traders! Cheers
回复
4
举报
收起
- JerryChiang:
  yeah, go Tesla go
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
LTJonahHeg
·2021-08-13
Nope.
回复
3
举报
Lanying
·2021-08-13
O
回复
4
举报
收起
- Lanying:
  O
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
Eslechia
·2021-08-13
Thank you!
回复
3
举报
sQzC
·2021-08-13
Latest
回复
3
举报
收起
- Wenikho:
  Ok
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
NRN
·2021-08-13
🚀🚀🚀
回复
6
举报
收起
- Charging:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
NKT9493
·2021-08-13
Wow
回复
6
举报
BeautyTrade
·2021-08-13
More focus on FB
回复
8
举报
收起
- Wenikho:
  Okok
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
Kevin92
·2021-08-13
Like and comment
回复
7
举报
收起
- MoneyCub:
  Ok
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
- NKT9493:
  Wow
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
77663629
·2021-08-13
Nice closing
回复
5
举报
收起
- Kevin92:
  Like and comment
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
SandDust
·2021-08-13
I will say the stock remain very exciting, however Tesla will see more competition going forward.
回复
2
举报
收起
- JCBL:
  ok...thanks for sharing...
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
- CPCat回复JCBL:
  yes, I think a bit late to enter now. at the 600 level last quarter probably still good to buy and let go now for >10% gain. it'll take many more quarters to hit 1k now.
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
- JCBL:
  Too late to buy in now...price might be over-valued...what do u think?
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
查看更多 1 条评论
SeanSak
·2021-08-13
Like n comment
回复
3
举报
收起
- AdrinaChow:
  ok reply with like and comment pls
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
BotakTur
·2021-08-13
Yay
回复
3
举报
收起
- BotakTur:
  Good
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
- Ernfei:
  Good
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报
chaisiewling
·2021-08-13
Like
回复
3
举报
收起
- chaisiewling:
  Like
  2021-08-13
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1176759606","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","media":"Seeking Alpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","article_id":"1176759606","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"特斯拉股票预测：2021年剩余时间考虑什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":894814690,"gmtCreate":1628816269710,"gmtModify":1633689275489,"author":{"id":"3582595806100338","authorId":"3582595806100338","authorIdStr":"3582595806100338","name":"Rteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba4c61a94c707cd25f18400b8cc52a4c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582595806100338"},"htmlText":"It still has its potential anyway.&nbsp;","listText":"It still has its potential anyway.&nbsp;","text":"It still has its potential anyway.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894814690","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894811640,"gmtCreate":1628816035880,"gmtModify":1633689280315,"author":{"id":"3580984813011332","authorId":"3580984813011332","authorIdStr":"3580984813011332","name":"WKB","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580984813011332"},"htmlText":"I believe Tesla can go back to at least $900","listText":"I believe Tesla can go back to at least $900","text":"I believe Tesla can go back to at least $900","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894811640","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511870,"gmtCreate":1628816228908,"gmtModify":1631894061002,"authorId":3582595806100338,"author":{"id":3582595806100338,"authorId":3582595806100338,"name":"Rteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba4c61a94c707cd25f18400b8cc52a4c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894811640,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I second that","text":"I second that","html":"I second that"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894897033,"gmtCreate":1628815244522,"gmtModify":1633689293184,"author":{"id":"3565238397133271","authorId":"3565238397133271","authorIdStr":"3565238397133271","name":"Spaclover","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565238397133271"},"htmlText":"U","listText":"U","text":"U","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894897033","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511659,"gmtCreate":1628815279892,"gmtModify":1635152874891,"authorId":3565238397133271,"author":{"id":3565238397133271,"authorId":3565238397133271,"name":"Spaclover","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894897033,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"T","text":"T","html":"T"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894802589,"gmtCreate":1628814627941,"gmtModify":1633689303493,"author":{"id":"3581848609787274","authorId":"3581848609787274","authorIdStr":"3581848609787274","name":"IZLIN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2241963762942310c858a3aae49c0d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581848609787274"},"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581561113691319\">@Meow17</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582026494482473\">@Sagi08</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582502706085184\">@simplydkam</a>for a read!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581561113691319\">@Meow17</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582026494482473\">@Sagi08</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582502706085184\">@simplydkam</a>for a read!","text":"@Meow17@Sagi08@simplydkamfor a read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894802589","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5512335,"gmtCreate":1628818212859,"gmtModify":1635152812514,"authorId":3581561113691319,"author":{"id":3581561113691319,"authorId":3581561113691319,"name":"Meow17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb44c855c6634e62b2e1d492bb4bcee1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894802589,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"OK noted","text":"OK noted","html":"OK noted"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894808756,"gmtCreate":1628814552475,"gmtModify":1633689305582,"author":{"id":"3559862059870297","authorId":"3559862059870297","authorIdStr":"3559862059870297","name":"MoneyCub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ae708d214afbc1b0b1f68ecc65c7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559862059870297"},"htmlText":"Hmmm. Let’s see and monitor then.&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmm. Let’s see and monitor then.&nbsp;","text":"Hmmm. Let’s see and monitor then.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894808756","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894172185,"gmtCreate":1628814131047,"gmtModify":1631893848822,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","authorIdStr":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578371382142637"},"htmlText":"It’s okay, with wild expectations fromeven the professionals, big range for traders! &nbsp;Cheers&nbsp;","listText":"It’s okay, with wild expectations fromeven the professionals, big range for traders! &nbsp;Cheers&nbsp;","text":"It’s okay, with wild expectations fromeven the professionals, big range for traders! Cheers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894172185","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511589,"gmtCreate":1628814964107,"gmtModify":1631893848824,"authorId":3576907825888639,"author":{"id":3576907825888639,"authorId":3576907825888639,"name":"JerryChiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537811c4027e5f1664a45ab303892cb1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894172185,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yeah, go Tesla <u>go</u>","text":"yeah, go Tesla <u>go</u>","html":"yeah, go Tesla <u>go</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894146008,"gmtCreate":1628813598304,"gmtModify":1628813598304,"author":{"id":"3561548364525556","authorId":"3561548364525556","authorIdStr":"3561548364525556","name":"LTJonahHeg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5de5c974a271be1562937f45efd9cf9","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561548364525556"},"htmlText":"Nope.&nbsp;","listText":"Nope.&nbsp;","text":"Nope.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894146008","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894154791,"gmtCreate":1628813321813,"gmtModify":1633689329165,"author":{"id":"3571641801586244","authorId":"3571641801586244","authorIdStr":"3571641801586244","name":"Lanying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44079e6feb39117800ea99462f8cae40","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571641801586244"},"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894154791","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511191,"gmtCreate":1628813328214,"gmtModify":1635152919316,"authorId":3571641801586244,"author":{"id":3571641801586244,"authorId":3571641801586244,"name":"Lanying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44079e6feb39117800ea99462f8cae40","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894154791,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"O","text":"O","html":"O"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894155722,"gmtCreate":1628813249066,"gmtModify":1631889299534,"author":{"id":"3586039357257394","authorId":"3586039357257394","authorIdStr":"3586039357257394","name":"Eslechia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586039357257394"},"htmlText":"Thank you!","listText":"Thank you!","text":"Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894155722","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894156054,"gmtCreate":1628813143078,"gmtModify":1633689332399,"author":{"id":"4090500580946240","authorId":"4090500580946240","authorIdStr":"4090500580946240","name":"sQzC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ce8b4966fa803f0c04a59852fded4a","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090500580946240"},"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894156054","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511161,"gmtCreate":1628813202897,"gmtModify":1635152921852,"authorId":3583735307988740,"author":{"id":3583735307988740,"authorId":3583735307988740,"name":"Wenikho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d673eefef20f75808048d78501a48f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894156054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894159549,"gmtCreate":1628813013981,"gmtModify":1633689335220,"author":{"id":"3563581390514944","authorId":"3563581390514944","authorIdStr":"3563581390514944","name":"NRN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3561ad0f76bae7ec1e64062bc70f0207","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563581390514944"},"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894159549","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511304,"gmtCreate":1628813797852,"gmtModify":1635152908768,"authorId":3574924744683779,"author":{"id":3574924744683779,"authorId":3574924744683779,"name":"Charging","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb132b01616074824a4d1a4b8478727e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894159549,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894127004,"gmtCreate":1628812869808,"gmtModify":1633689337666,"author":{"id":"3576583202640797","authorId":"3576583202640797","authorIdStr":"3576583202640797","name":"NKT9493","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6332e9e73fa2d969a123da1e4579ec09","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576583202640797"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894127004","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894124433,"gmtCreate":1628812861522,"gmtModify":1631884932654,"author":{"id":"3584182854667058","authorId":"3584182854667058","authorIdStr":"3584182854667058","name":"BeautyTrade","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f8e238d1760fe32b24660344219105","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584182854667058"},"htmlText":"More focus on FB","listText":"More focus on FB","text":"More focus on FB","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894124433","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511165,"gmtCreate":1628813212284,"gmtModify":1635152921425,"authorId":3583735307988740,"author":{"id":3583735307988740,"authorId":3583735307988740,"name":"Wenikho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d673eefef20f75808048d78501a48f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894124433,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Okok","text":"Okok","html":"Okok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894124027,"gmtCreate":1628812829769,"gmtModify":1633689338604,"author":{"id":"3576274545052910","authorId":"3576274545052910","authorIdStr":"3576274545052910","name":"Kevin92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ff4addbbdb8d9d15fec29f9709b0c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576274545052910"},"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894124027","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511066,"gmtCreate":1628812860993,"gmtModify":1635152930591,"authorId":3559862059870297,"author":{"id":3559862059870297,"authorId":3559862059870297,"name":"MoneyCub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ae708d214afbc1b0b1f68ecc65c7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894124027,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5511067,"gmtCreate":1628812862426,"gmtModify":1635152930483,"authorId":3576583202640797,"author":{"id":3576583202640797,"authorId":3576583202640797,"name":"NKT9493","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6332e9e73fa2d969a123da1e4579ec09","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894124027,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Wow","text":"Wow","html":"Wow"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894126438,"gmtCreate":1628812765124,"gmtModify":1633689340783,"author":{"id":"3585109808495850","authorId":"3585109808495850","authorIdStr":"3585109808495850","name":"77663629","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585109808495850"},"htmlText":"Nice closing","listText":"Nice closing","text":"Nice closing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894126438","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511055,"gmtCreate":1628812822717,"gmtModify":1631896306917,"authorId":3576274545052910,"author":{"id":3576274545052910,"authorId":3576274545052910,"name":"Kevin92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ff4addbbdb8d9d15fec29f9709b0c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894126438,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","html":"Like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894126877,"gmtCreate":1628812759399,"gmtModify":1633689341250,"author":{"id":"3581331938298103","authorId":"3581331938298103","authorIdStr":"3581331938298103","name":"SandDust","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6083d742fc232449a625fb122842c8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581331938298103"},"htmlText":"I will say the stock remain very exciting, however Tesla will see&nbsp;more competition going forward.&nbsp;","listText":"I will say the stock remain very exciting, however Tesla will see&nbsp;more competition going forward.&nbsp;","text":"I will say the stock remain very exciting, however Tesla will see more competition going forward.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894126877","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5517640,"gmtCreate":1628858253960,"gmtModify":1631894227557,"authorId":4087218051185710,"author":{"id":4087218051185710,"authorId":4087218051185710,"name":"JCBL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52754657c86fcbf3892ea1fec33f39d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894126877,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok...thanks for sharing...","text":"ok...thanks for sharing...","html":"ok...thanks for sharing..."},{"id":5511644,"gmtCreate":1628815194038,"gmtModify":1631894227548,"authorId":3582520228861009,"author":{"id":3582520228861009,"authorId":3582520228861009,"name":"CPCat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bafaf3d39abfb78a4bedf785310721a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":4087218051185710,"repliedAuthor":{"id":4087218051185710,"authorId":4087218051185710,"name":"JCBL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52754657c86fcbf3892ea1fec33f39d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":894126877,"type":1,"supId":5511164,"prevId":5511234,"content":"yes, I think a bit late to enter now. at the 600 level last quarter&nbsp; probably still good to buy and let go now for &gt;10% gain. it'll take many more quarters to hit 1k now.","text":"yes, I think a bit late to enter now. at the 600 level last quarter&nbsp; probably still good to buy and let go now for &gt;10% gain. it'll take many more quarters to hit 1k now.","html":"yes, I think a bit late to enter now. at the 600 level last quarter&nbsp; probably still good to buy and let go now for &gt;10% gain. it'll take many more quarters to hit 1k now."},{"id":5511234,"gmtCreate":1628813516156,"gmtModify":1631894227539,"authorId":4087218051185710,"author":{"id":4087218051185710,"authorId":4087218051185710,"name":"JCBL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52754657c86fcbf3892ea1fec33f39d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894126877,"type":1,"supId":5511164,"prevId":0,"content":"Too late to buy in now...price might be over-valued...what do u think?","text":"Too late to buy in now...price might be over-valued...what do u think?","html":"Too late to buy in now...price might be over-valued...what do u think?"},{"id":5511164,"gmtCreate":1628813211845,"gmtModify":1631894227531,"authorId":3572428109068921,"author":{"id":3572428109068921,"authorId":3572428109068921,"name":"DChia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcfaaf6da9577d8a6da421538592a0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894126877,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agree","text":"Agree","html":"Agree"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894120791,"gmtCreate":1628812560513,"gmtModify":1633689345076,"author":{"id":"3581585664475701","authorId":"3581585664475701","authorIdStr":"3581585664475701","name":"SeanSak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a62d3d455150e01d4dc6c67bd4f9c0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581585664475701"},"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894120791","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5511290,"gmtCreate":1628813760333,"gmtModify":1635152910051,"authorId":3583131237618472,"author":{"id":3583131237618472,"authorId":3583131237618472,"name":"AdrinaChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b867f4c2019d6ec313665b1af8431b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894120791,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok reply with like and comment pls","text":"ok reply with like and comment pls","html":"ok reply with like and comment pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894120536,"gmtCreate":1628812551625,"gmtModify":1633689345302,"author":{"id":"4090202748844200","authorId":"4090202748844200","authorIdStr":"4090202748844200","name":"BotakTur","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfb7690052b45745da7270aa672c42d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090202748844200"},"htmlText":"Yay","listText":"Yay","text":"Yay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894120536","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5510972,"gmtCreate":1628812561678,"gmtModify":1635152938740,"authorId":4090202748844200,"author":{"id":4090202748844200,"authorId":4090202748844200,"name":"BotakTur","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfb7690052b45745da7270aa672c42d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894120536,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":5511011,"gmtCreate":1628812699785,"gmtModify":1635152935704,"authorId":3579777142034674,"author":{"id":3579777142034674,"authorId":3579777142034674,"name":"Ernfei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc1cd93bef32da12deb25d8f5ccf6ce7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894120536,"type":1,"supId":5510972,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894167256,"gmtCreate":1628812491575,"gmtModify":1631892778452,"author":{"id":"3584578813080112","authorId":"3584578813080112","authorIdStr":"3584578813080112","name":"chaisiewling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a4a1e448f0d39c51c24533166eb658","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584578813080112"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894167256","repostId":1176759606,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176759606","pubTimestamp":1628811991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176759606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176759606","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective t","content":"<h3><b>Summary</b></h3>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.</li>\n <li>The company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.</li>\n <li>What is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><b>Article Thesis</b></h3>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.</p>\n<h3><b>TSLA Stock Price</b></h3>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c5307cde7c9d89e71b61e7ebb49a9f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>TSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.</p>\n<p>The issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.</p>\n<h3><b>Business Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries</b></h3>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.</p>\n<p>Of course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DMLRY\">Daimler AG</a>, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated&nbsp;EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion&nbsp;during the period.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.</p>\n<p>Tesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.</p>\n<p>Other recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's&nbsp;CEO had still talked about&nbsp;being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the&nbsp;Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.</p>\n<p>Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.</p>\n<p>Also of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers&nbsp;declined slightly&nbsp;in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.</p>\n<p>On top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Co., Ltd.</a>&nbsp;are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.</p>\n<p>This wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>, Daimler, Ford, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.</p>\n<h3><b>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2021</b></h3>\n<p>The strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.</p>\n<p>The current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to&nbsp;$12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31703c291feebd49c025f176261366d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by&nbsp;YCharts</p>\n<p>The difference, of course, is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, with<i>higher</i>expected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.</p>\n<p>Based on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<h3><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h3>\n<p>For those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.</p>\n<p>If TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that&nbsp;gambling on an AV win&nbsp;is a great choice here, but others may disagree.</p>\n<p>Primarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast: What To Consider For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448463-tesla-stock-forecast-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176759606","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been more successful in Q2 than expected, but we should see this in perspective to the results of other auto companies. Q2 was an \"easy\" quarter.\nThe company is growing at an attractive pace overall but seems to have some market share issues in China - the world's most important automobile market.\nWhat is priced into the current valuation? TSLA's growth may not be high enough to warrant the current valuation.\nI do much more than just articles at Cash Flow Kingdom: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\n\nArticle Thesis\nTesla Motors has generated massive returns in 2020, but 2021 has not been so kind to investors, despite ongoing progress for the company on an operational basis. The reason for that is Tesla's high valuation, which does already account for a lot of growth. In this article, we'll look into a couple of recent news items and what they could mean for Tesla going forward.\nTSLA Stock Price\nTesla, Inc. had an outstanding 2020, as shares rose from around $90 to around $700 in just twelve months, which equates to a massive 670% gain for those that held shares throughout that time frame. Those that bought at various points during 2020 may not have the same performance, however, and as Tesla received a lot of attention following steep gains in H1 2020, it seems logical to assume that a considerable portion of the company's investor base bought at prices that are, by far, not as favorable compared to those that bought in early 2020 or prior to that.\n2021 has been a way less exciting year for Tesla so far, as shares have risen by just 1% to date:\nData by YCharts\nTSLA has significantly lagged the broad market so far this year, as stretched valuations and declining hype around EV investments have not been kind to Tesla. The same holds true for others in this space, as TSLA is not the only EV company that trades well below all-time-highs right now - NIO Inc., Lucid Group Inc, and many more are trading 20%, 30%, or even 50%+ below their highs. Analysts are currently not seeing a reversal from this underperformance, as the consensus price target of $680 implies that shares are actually trading above where they will trade a year from now.\nThe issue that keeps Tesla's shares from rising in 2021 is not a lag of underlying business progress, of course, as growth has remained strong and recent results and profitability during the most recent quarter were actually better than expected. The more likely cause for the underperformance of Tesla, Inc. when it comes to equity markets this year is that valuations were just way too stretched going into 2021, and due to very high expectations, there is no real catalyst in sight that could propel shares higher right now.\nBusiness Overview: Improving Profitability, China Market Share Worries\nLooking at Tesla's underlying performance in H1, there are positives and negatives that are noteworthy. First, looking through the Q1 earnings report, it should be noted that Tesla was surprisingly profitable during the period. The company easily beat the consensus estimate, reporting GAAP earnings per share of $1.02, which was roughly 100% higher than the consensus estimate. This was the result of a better-than-expected gross margin, which was, unlike in some previous quarters, not boosted too much by ZEV credit sales. Instead, it was Tesla's actual car business that was able to surprise with profitability levels that were higher than what was expected.\nOf course, a company generating $1 in quarterly EPS, or $4 on an annualized level, is still trading at an extremely high valuation at a share price of $700+. With an earnings multiple well in excess of 100, TSLA is priced for perfection, and when we take a look at the profitability levels of some of Tesla's peers, the company still doesn't stack up too well. Daimler AG, for example, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, generated EBIT of €5.4 billion, or $6.4 billion during the second quarter alone, which is roughly 5x as much as Tesla's operating profit of$1.3 billion during the period.\nIn other words, despite the fact that Tesla's profitability was higher than expected, the company's profits are not even close to those of some of its peers, and Daimler is far from the largest legacy player in the car industry. It seems like the second quarter, overall, was a pretty good one for the car industry, with many legacy players generating strong results as well. This does, at least to some extent, put Tesla's profit beat in perspective - it looks like profit beats were easy to achieve for car companies in Q2. Daimler does, for reference, trade at a market capitalization of $93 billion, or roughly one-eighth of Tesla's market cap - despite generating massively higher profits.\nTesla did, unlike Daimler and other legacy players, generate very strong volume growth, however, breaching 200,000 deliveries during a single quarter for the first time. This undoubtedly was a strong feat for the company, which absolutely deserves respect for breaching an annual sales rate of 800,000 less than two decades after the company was founded.\nOther recent news was not as positive, however. Tesla did, for example, push back the Cybertruck delivery date to 2022. This didn't come as too much of a surprise to many that follow the company, but the company's CEO had still talked about being able to deliver at least some Cybertrucks this year. It looks like, once again, Tesla leadership has overpromised and underdelivered when it comes to setting expectations for new product releases, in what seems to be the case relatively often - the same occurred with robo-taxis, the Tesla Semi, the Model S Plaid Plus, and so on.\nCybertruck deliveries being pushed back does not only mean that this new model will not provide any revenues or profits for Tesla in H2, but on top of that, deliveries being pushed back may weaken Tesla's position in the electric pick-up truck segment. The Ford 150 Lightning will be released in spring 2022 as well, and might actually come to market before the Cybertruck.\nThis is, of course, bad news for bulls that had hoped for deliveries to start in 2021, which would have meant that the Cybertruck could have gained sales momentum before Ford had its model on the market. Right now, it looks like the competition will be stiffer, with both highly-anticipated electric trucks coming out around the same time.\nAlso of note, Tesla seems to be having issues in keeping or growing its market share in China. Production numbers declined slightly in July, and most of the cars that the company produced in Shanghai were exported. This does, of course, not mean that these cars do not generate any revenue - they do, even when shipped to Europe, for example. But with shipping rates at very high levels, it seems reasonable to assume that margins on these exported cars will not be especially high, due to high transportation costs.\nOn top of that, even when we account for the fact that Tesla's exports from China are always the highest in the first month during a quarter, it still is noteworthy that sales in China keep declining: The company sold more than 15,000 cars locally in January, with that amount declining to 12,000 in April, and to less than 9,000 in July. Since the Tesla Shanghai plant was not built for export markets primarily, this trend may spell trouble for Tesla in the world's biggest automobile market. Local EV players, such as NIO, XPeng Inc., or BYD Co., Ltd. are growing their sales quickly, and do have a similar market share in their home markets compared to Tesla. Li, for example, sold 8,589 cars in July, versus 8,621 for Tesla.\nThis wouldn't be a major problem if Tesla was not valued at a very high valuation, of course. But Tesla is, as a matter of fact, trading at a market capitalization that is higher than that of Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, XPeng, NIO, and BYD combined. In this situation, with a valuation this high, Tesla's obvious market share issues and declining local sales in China seem like an issue that investors should keep an eye on - it will be very hard for Tesla to become a dominant automobile company when it is struggling in the world's largest automobile market.\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2021\nThe strong share price gains in 2020 have made TSLA's stock very expensive, and even with 100% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, shares are way more expensive than they were one year ago, as the market capitalization has risen by way more than that in the same time frame. It seems pretty clear that Tesla will be able to grow its revenues and profits in 2021, 2022, and beyond, but to me, it seems highly questionable whether future growth will justify the current valuation.\nThe current EPS consensus for 2021 is $5.43, and earnings per share are forecasted to grow to $12.72 in 2025. This equates to an annual growth rate of 24%, which is attractive for sure. But, for reference, this is in-line or below the growth rates that are expected from the following companies:\nData by YCharts\nThe difference, of course, is that Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Netflix are generating higher margins, have less capital-intense business models, and are valued at very low valuations relative to how Tesla is valued - TSLA trades at 130x this year's expected profits, with mid-20s earnings growth, while GOOG trades for 28x net profits, withhigherexpected growth. Clearly, Tesla is an absolute outlier when it comes to valuation among mega-cap growth companies. I believe that this will not be a positive for investors going forward.\nBased on current consensus price targets, there is no upside for Tesla's shares over the next year, and actually some downside potential. With Cybertruck deliveries being pushed back, robo-taxis not around the corner, and competition intensifying, I doubt that shares will be a great investment for the remainder of 2021.\nIs TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nFor those that bought TSLA before its meteoric share price gains in 2020, the company undoubtedly has been a great investment. But past returns do not equate to future returns, and it seems like shares have burned out to some extent. TSLA has significantly underperformed the market this year, and it does not look like there is a major catalyst waiting around the corner that could change that.\nIf TSLA manages to solve autonomous driving on a global scale before anyone else, shares could be a good investment. But from what we know today, it does not look like this is a very likely scenario - others, including XPeng, Alphabet, etc., are ahead of Tesla in AV tech. I thus don't think that gambling on an AV win is a great choice here, but others may disagree.\nPrimarily due to its excessively high valuation, both versus legacy auto players and other growth mega-caps, I think Tesla remains an avoid right here. If I held shares, I'd think about locking in gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5510964,"gmtCreate":1628812504126,"gmtModify":1635152939610,"authorId":3584578813080112,"author":{"id":3584578813080112,"authorId":3584578813080112,"name":"chaisiewling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a4a1e448f0d39c51c24533166eb658","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894167256,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":117,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}