Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings: Upside To At Least $37_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings: Upside To At Least $37

seekingalpha2021-04-23

Summary Based on historical P-S ratios, NCLH is undervalued and has upside through appreciation. Earnings revisions and upgrades, like the one from Goldman Sachs this week, serve as catalysts. With ...

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Tslverde
·2021-04-23
Nice
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Xxgwxx
·2021-04-23
Like and comment back pls
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Norwegian Cruise Line Companies has a potential stock price target of $37.\nWhere the industry stands\nCruise line companies remain non-operational in the US based on CDC guidance, but legislative efforts attempt to achieve an earlier reopening, possibly by summer.\nEarlier this month, three US senators introduced a new bill seeking to revoke the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Conditional Sail Order on cruises. The aim of the bill: To allow cruise ships to sail to and from US ports again.\nThe bill was introduced by Republican senators and comes after Florida has sued the CDC to lift its no-sail order. Alaska just joined Florida in suing the CDC. Pressure is mounting on the CDC to lift its cruise ban and allow the reopening of a sector that remains completely closed for business in the US. A sooner-than-expected reopening of the cruise line sector is potentially a catalyst and not priced into valuations of cruise line companies.\nAnalysts creating catalysts\nEarnings revisions to the upside are the clearest indication that the cruise line industry is rising from the ashes, and this comes with serious upside for cruise line stocks.\nNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings soared 10% after Goldman Sachsre commended NCLH as a “Buy” on Wednesday citing strong pent-up demand, focus on the North American market and a long liquidity runway. The bank raised its stock price target from $27 to $37. The upgrade pulled the entire sector up as well.\nMore analysts could follow and earnings revisions for FY 2021 and FY 2022 have been increasing in the last 30 days, which reflects a generally improving industry outlook set to brighten even more once the CDC lifts its cruise ban.\n(Source: Yahoo)\nStock price targets for NCLH and the other two cruise line companies Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) have only gone up over the last year, which is the logical consequence when earnings expectations are revised up.\n(Source: TipRanks)\nStock price target $37\nNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings traded between $50 and $60 during most of FY 2019 and earned $4.30-share for FY 2019, meaning it was valued between 11 to 14 times earnings. Once cruises resume and the business runs on full capacity, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings should be able to return to this earnings multiplier factor again, but a $60 or even $50 stock price should not be achievable due to dilution and higher debt.\nWhether cruises start in summer or later this year, FY 2021 will not be a good year, but FY 2022 should see a return to a normalized operating income of $1b because pent-up demand should fill up cruise ships quickly. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings had $1.2b in operating income in the FY 2018 and FY 2019 pre-COVID-19 record years.\nShort term, the industry is going to produce more losses but sales should recover quickly, so it makes sense to look at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' historical P-S ratio and see what the cruise line company traded at before COVID-19.\nNCLH traded at a factor of two or more of future sales in the years before COVID-19, and substantially above two in 2015. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' average P-S ratio over the five year period preceding COVID-19, on an end-quarter basis, was 2.3.\nThe 2021 spike in Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ P-S ratio in the red box below is due to market expectations that the cruise line company will operate only in the fourth quarter, not the entire year, and therefore the P-S ratio has little value.\nIf you calculate the P-S ratio based on estimated FY 2022 revenues, which I will do below, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' P-S ratio normalizes again.\n(Source: Macrotrends)\nBased on FY 2022 estimated revenues, NCLH has a P-S ratio of 1.8 which is lower than the historical valuation. If we were to use the 5-year average P-S ratio, 2.3, on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ expected sales of $6b in FY 2022 - $500m below FY 2019 sales of $6.5b - the calculator shows 26.6% upside, not counting a full revenue recovery to or above FY 2019 levels.\nWith a 26.6% upside, we can calculate a stock price target of $37.35, which is slightly above Goldman Sachs’ stock price target.\nThe revenue estimates and P-S ratios based on FY 2022 for all cruise line companies look like this:\n(Source: Author)\nIf we were to assume that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings can fully return to its pre-COVID-19 revenues of $6.5b in FY 2022 or FY2023 and apply the historical sales multiplier factor of 2.3 to this revenue level, we get a potential \"best case\" equity value of $40.47.\nThere is no guarantee that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' stock price will approach $37 or $40, and the sector, despite an improving outlook, faces profound uncertainty, mostly related to its spiraling debt. A new COVID-19 outbreak at sea and a potential extension of the no-sail order would make things considerably worse for the sector.\nBullish trend is restored\nThe Goldman Sachs upgrade and resulting 10% increase in Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ price have restored a bullish chart picture after NCLH dropped below the lower bound trend line this week.\n(Source: FinViz)\nClosing thoughts\nNCLH is a BUY with upside to at least $37. It is unlikely that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings will ever get back to its $60 or even $50 pre-COVID-19 valuation because it raised so much debt and sold shares which will lower earnings per share, but that doesn’t mean it can’t go a lot higher from here to catch up to its historical valuation standard.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":372312975,"gmtCreate":1619177123997,"gmtModify":1634287982528,"author":{"id":"3556329315079497","authorId":"3556329315079497","name":"Tslverde","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f52f5991ed363792008cd868f78181c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556329315079497","authorIdStr":"3556329315079497"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372312975","repostId":1171276214,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":372309279,"gmtCreate":1619173479891,"gmtModify":1634288004846,"author":{"id":"3575258337722148","authorId":"3575258337722148","name":"Xxgwxx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/477d0c1db49d90a28cc1fd9b01b89200","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575258337722148","authorIdStr":"3575258337722148"},"htmlText":"Like and comment back pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment back pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment back pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372309279","repostId":1171276214,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4112968,"gmtCreate":1619176128390,"gmtModify":1635513142444,"authorId":3581676808108385,"author":{"id":3581676808108385,"idStr":"3581676808108385","authorId":3581676808108385,"name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":372309279,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment ","text":"Comment ","html":"Comment "},{"id":4119285,"gmtCreate":1619232632611,"gmtModify":1635512628782,"authorId":3582289270251610,"author":{"id":3582289270251610,"idStr":"3582289270251610","authorId":3582289270251610,"name":"Linus94","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed7c76af3044d9d7aa3fee95f22379","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":372309279,"type":1,"supId":4112968,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}