美国三季度GDP增长大幅上修，美联储明年降息无望？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美国三季度GDP增长大幅上修，美联储明年降息无望？

金十数据2022-12-22

美国经济的弹性可能让降息“梦碎”？周四，由于出口和消费强劲，美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率终值录得3.2%，大幅超过预期的2.90%，前值为2.90%，初值为2.6%。这是美国经济连续两个季度萎缩后首次实现了正增长；消费的强劲再度超乎市场预期，美国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值录得2.3%，高于预期和前值的1.7%。与此同时，通胀形势依旧严峻，美国第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率终值录得...

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未知花开
·2022-12-22
一开始担忧经济衰退要跌，后面证明经济出现了正增长没有衰退又担心加息也要跌，加息之后又怕衰退又跌，就是为了跌而跌哪那么多利空
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Caron）就警告，市场可能低估了美联储愿意采取多大措施来遏制通胀的决心。Caron周三表示，他认为美联储的加息周期没有充分反映在价格中，“市场反映的是人们预期利率会下降，但我们需要多关注下政策制定者们的说法以及他们对通胀的担忧”。在通胀得到控制之前，政策制定者继续强化他们关于需要提高利率和收紧货币政策的鹰派信息。上周，几位政策制定者强调美联储将致力于实现2%的通胀目标，并需要有明确的证据表明价格压力有所缓解。Caron表示，除非发生戏剧性的事情，否则预计美联储将在一段时间内将利率维持在5.25%，以确保通胀得到控制。“美联储需要完成这项工作”。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius周三也称，他预计美联储不会在2023年降息，但这主要是因为他比大多数专家更乐观地认为美国经济能否避免衰退。Hatzius在接受CNBC采访时预测，由于金融环境收紧和货币政策紧缩会限制劳动力市场并降低GDP增长，但不足以引发经济衰退，这将阻止美联储在年内降低利率。他说：“我认为，美联储在通胀仍高于目标，而经济并未进入衰退的环境加息的门槛相对较高。”Hatzius补充说，展望2023年，即使有更多的加息，整体加息幅度应该在75个基点，这与美联储的预测相似。他预计金融状况受到的拖累会更小。与此同时，这位高盛经济学家认为，随着整体通胀回落，实际家庭可支配收入增加，以及消费者信心上升，将使经济获得增长的支撑。Hatzius承认，他对明年的经济预测比华尔街的大多数人都乐观。他估计经济衰退的可能性为35%，而世界大型企业联合会（The Conference Board）最新的一项面向CEO的调查显示可能性为60%-65% 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