Stocks will roar higher into year-end and January as an 'overshoot' in selling leads to a short squeeze, JPMorgan's quant guru says_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Stocks will roar higher into year-end and January as an 'overshoot' in selling leads to a short squeeze, JPMorgan's quant guru says

Markets Insider2021-12-20

A top Wall Street analyst offered an upbeat stock market outlook for the rest of 2021 and early 2022 after a bout of steep selling. JPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic based this prediction on ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks will roar higher into year-end and January as an 'overshoot' in selling leads to a short squeeze, JPMorgan's quant guru says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-20 09:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overselling-short-squeeze-year-end-january-rally-2021-12><strong>Markets Insider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A top Wall Street analyst offered an upbeat stock market outlook for the rest of 2021 and early 2022 after a bout of steep selling.\nJPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic based this prediction on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overselling-short-squeeze-year-end-january-rally-2021-12\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overselling-short-squeeze-year-end-january-rally-2021-12","article_id":"1140820877","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140820877","pubTimestamp":1639964582,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"A top Wall Street analyst offered an upbeat stock market outlook for the rest of 2021 and early 2022","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"businessinsider.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"摩根大通的定量专家说，股市将在年底和1月份大幅上涨，因为抛售的“过度”导致空头挤压","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"A top Wall Street analyst offered an upbeat stock market outlook for the rest of 2021 and early 2022 after a bout of steep selling.\nJPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic based this prediction on indications that short sellers will get squeezed soon.\nThe macroeconomic outlook remains strong despite the Omicron variant surge as coronavirus deaths have been muted.\n\nTraders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange\nStocks are poised for a year-end and early-2022 rally as the recent sell-off appears overdone and hints at moves by short sellers who will soon get squeezed, according to Marko Kolanovic, the chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nIn a note published Friday laying out his stock market outlook, the quant guru said US stocks are 28% off their highs. But the overall market, as measured by the Russell 3000, is still up about 22% for the year.\n\"Such a divergence is unknown to us, and indicates a historically unprecedented overshoot in selling smaller, more volatile, typically value and cyclical stocks in the last 4 weeks,\" Kolanovic wrote.\nHeadlines attribute the market decline to the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance and the surge in Omicron coronavirus cases. Actual selling, however, is due to de-risking and shorting from hedge funds, he said.\nBut the conditions needed for a successful short-selling effort don't exist, meaning \"this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January,\" Kolanovic predicted.\nHe pointed out volatility-targeting and risk-parity funds are adding exposure, with a strong value-growth rotation also underway. Overall, the situation from a technical or fundamental perspective doesn't resemble the massive stock market rout seen in the fourth quarter of 2018, he added.\nStill, Kolanovic said \"there is aggressive shorting, likely in a hope of declines in retail equity position and cryptocurrency holdings - while in fact both of these markets and retail investors have shown resilience in the past weeks.\"\nThose shorts now looked to get squeezed. Large short positions will likely need to be closed before January, when he expects a rally in small-cap, value and cyclical stocks. Plus, the closing of short positions may have a bigger impact than the opening of them, as liquidity conditions dry up.\nMeanwhile, the Omicron variant appears less threatening to the stock market outlook. Even though vaccinated people are more vulnerable to infections, fatality rates are not spiking. 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