准确预测美股去年崩盘的大佬：清算之日即将到来_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

准确预测美股去年崩盘的大佬：清算之日即将到来

腾讯美股2021-04-28

投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。一年多以前，一位华尔街策略师成功预见到了2020年美股大崩盘，而现在，他发出了警告，称“清算之日即将到来”，并预测股市未来很多年内都很难提供得体的回报。在亨里奇（Sven Henrich）看来，一切都已经再清楚不过了——美股市场就是处在一场实实在在的泡沫当中。这不单单是感觉，更是他研究了一系列指标之后所得出的结论。美国股市总市值对美国...

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haiwei183
·2021-04-29
准吗？
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1
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顺风而行98
·2021-04-29
存多点子弹，2024年前可能回来一次大崩盘
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2
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- haiwei183:
  好
  2021-04-29
  回复
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StevenZ
·2021-04-29
只要天天喊跌总有蒙对的时候
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2
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- 反卡:
  蒙错很快就过去了，蒙对了就封神
  2021-04-29
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- 阿麦小乔:
  [强]
  2021-04-29
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Derick的日间
·2021-04-29
疫情清算？你是要世界毁灭么？健康回调可能性大。财报季拉高出货，顺势回调，然后来10年国债。。
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2
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- __小曦曦:
  [无语] [无语]
  2021-04-29
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洞幽烛远
·2021-04-28
预测大师太多了[笑哭] [捂脸]
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2
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UC震惊部主编
·2021-04-28
阴跌，不会马上跳水
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1
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- Derick的日间:
  跌，然后还是牛，至少2021年还是绿色的
  2021-04-29
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Savage_Never
·2021-04-28
做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹
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4
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- Savage_Never:
  蟹蟹
  2021-04-29
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- Supreme A:
  ，
  2021-04-28
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一遇风雨便化龙
·2021-04-28
长久了肯定跌呗
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点赞
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SiangTee
·2021-04-28
[微笑]
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2
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- GKAI:
  暴跌？
  2021-04-28
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- SiangTee:
  diodio
  2021-04-28
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- SiangTee:
  [笑哭]
  2021-04-28
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“我还可以列出很多的例子，不过大家知道大致如此就好。人们已经深深沉浸到奇特的投资行为当中，历史已经证明，作为这种行为根基的信念是无法自我实现的，因此这行为迟早要受到严厉的惩罚。”\n\n当然，这都是美联储的“功劳”。他们不断向市场注入海量的现金，而且还一再赌咒发誓，说他们会继续这样做下去，这就使得每一位投资者都成为了2020年的赢家，让他们高度确信自己是不可能输掉的，于是他们就更加大胆地去追捧日益高企的资产价格。\n不过，正如亨里奇所警告的，这样的派对是不可能无休止开下去的。虽然泡沫到底何时破灭，无人能够准确预言，但是那一天的到来只是迟早的问题。\n\n “你们可以不顾增税、不顾债务、不顾估值，但是归根结底，不顾这些都是将你们自己置于风险之下。”\n\n他警告说，“清算之日即将到来。”\n亨里奇还表示，伴随疫苗日益铺开，财政刺激力度持续提升，联储未必就会一直保持对市场这种全力支持的态度。他指出，在当前的氛围当中，像美国银行这样的机构已经觉得自己的财务高度安全，甚至开始大量回购股票了。\n2020年2月20日，即美股市场来到上一轮牛市高点前后，亨里奇在自己公司的网站上写道：\n\n “在我看来，市场已经来到了2000年以来最危险的境地。”\n\n果然，在那之后大约一个月的时间里，伴随疫情的突然爆发，标普500指数下跌了近35%。\n然而，局面随之改变，伴随市场强势反弹，过去十二个月的时间当中，投资者的乐观程度称得上是到了令人瞠目结舌的地步，去年11月疫苗利好消息传出之后尤甚。4月又是一个美股强势的月份，月初以来标普500指数上涨了大约5%，不断创下新高。\n这种情况下，华尔街的专家们越发谨慎起来。日前，美国银行发出警告说，投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。他们的标普500指数目标点位较之当下的实际点位要低了大约9%。美银首席美股策略师萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）在4月14日发布的研究报告当中写道：\n\n “在市场情绪欣快症气味日益浓烈、估值高企、刺激达到顶峰的情况下，我们持续认定，市场对这些利好消息的消化已经过度了。我们依然看好美国经济的前景，但并不看好标普500指数。”\n\n法国兴业银行策略师爱德华兹（Albert Edwards）也警告说，众多指标都显示市场已经涨过了头。虽然其他多数观察家都不曾预言将有大规模的抛售发生，但是主流观点在标普500指数今年还能涨多少这一点上，看法确实是相当保守的。\n在这种情况下，投资者的股票投资难度也就大幅度提升了。伴随经济逐渐重启，消费者打开已经是满满的钱包，支出预计将大为增长，但问题在于，这一利好也已经提前被市场看到和消化了。\n正如摩根士丹利的威尔森（Mike 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