诺奖得主席勒深度剖析美股疯涨_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

诺奖得主席勒深度剖析美股疯涨

腾讯美股2020-07-08

众所周知，美股在疫情时期的疯涨表现吊诡之极，让众多观察家大跌眼镜，也让众多投资专家欲哭无泪，哪怕到今天，也依然与经济基本面严重脱节。这样令人难以索解的一幕到底是如何上演的？诺贝尔经济学奖得主席勒（Robert Shiller）在报业辛迪加撰文指出，这也许该从群众心理学，观念的扩散，叙事的传播规律视角去观察。以下即全文。疫情期间的股市，尤其是美国股市，看上去似乎是在公然藐视逻辑。投资和就业全线...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

行天下639800
·2020-07-09
是的，大多数时候不会
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梓源之源
·2020-07-09
nb
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穷鬼搬砖头
·2020-07-08
所以经济学家表达的意思中国股民早就懂了，就是什么分析什么估值什么环境，毛用都没，消息一吹，大水一放，庄家一带，韭菜一冲动，大妈一进场，就是不讲道理往上涨
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- _7847:
  😄
  2020-07-09
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一年翻百倍
·2020-07-08
说了这么多废话？
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雪光映心
·2020-07-08
这不是回光返照？灾难多发、危机重重、经济重创，什么逻辑支撑现实的股市牛起来？增发货币是屡试不爽的良药？强心剂还是兴奋剂？股市代表经济，还是经济引导股市？
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-07-08
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TedZhang
·2020-07-08
其实智者应该就是这样: 能够理性地使用相对有限的知识来阐释一件事情。诺奖获得者也不是神，承认自己的无知就是对的。
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我很强我知道
·2020-07-08
诺奖得主如此智慧，应该炒股赚了不少
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- iAm22:
  惭愧记错人了[捂脸] 我看过席勒的公开课想着同一个人了
  2020-07-08
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- isilluna:
  耶鲁捐赠基金管理者是大卫斯文森啊
  2020-07-08
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- iAm22:
  校友捐赠基金
  2020-07-08
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查看更多 1 条评论
iAm22
·2020-07-08
席勒老爷子的意思就是他也不懂[丢脸] 也闷逼了不过他的公开课还不错看看挺好
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- iiislynn:
  甚得朕心啊！
  2020-07-08
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Shiller）在报业辛迪加撰文指出，这也许该从群众心理学，观念的扩散，叙事的传播规律视角去观察。以下即全文。\n\n疫情期间的股市，尤其是美国股市，看上去似乎是在公然藐视逻辑。投资和就业全线萎缩，需求遭受沉重打击，股价凭什么还能继续保持高水位？\n伴随经济基本面与市场日益脱节，人们头脑当中的问号也变得越来越大，但是，也许有一种思路可以打开这个问号——群众心理学，观念的扩散，叙事的传播规律。归根结底，驱动股市行情的，很大程度上其实并不是新闻本身，而是投资者认为其他人可能针对新闻做出怎样反应的判断。\n这是因为，大多数人都没有专业能力去评估一条经济或者科技新闻到底有多么重要，因此他们很大程度上就只能依靠自己认识的人对新闻的反应去做出结论，在一个大众高度不信任媒体的时代，这种倾向的体现尤其明显。\n不必说，这样一个过程是需要相当时间的，因此，虽然传统想法认为市场总是会对消息第一时间做出迅速而强烈的反应，而现实却常常让这样的逻辑落空。于是乎，尽管新闻确实可以在市场上造就全新趋势，但是专业投资人想要利用这种变化赚钱，却变得非常困难了，因为变化的时间节点总是很难踩对。\n当然，到底是什么在决定市场行情，这是很难猜测的，好在，我们至少可以站在事后论的立场上，根据各种已知的信息去反推。\n疫情期间，美股的前进轨迹可以明显地分为三个阶段：从1月30日到2月19日，标普500指数上涨了3%；之后到3月23日，指数下跌了34%；再之后到现在，指数又上涨了42%。这三个阶段的市场表现与新闻之间的关联都让人极为困惑，而这在很大程度上正是因为故事和投资者的反应都需要过滤的时间，因此市场的表现总是具有滞后性。\n\n第一阶段的起点是1月30日，世卫组织宣布疫情已经构成了“国际公共卫生紧急事件”。然而，之后二十天当中，标普500指数还是上涨了3%，于2月19日创下历史纪录。在全球很可能已经走到了重大灾难前夜的情况下，投资者为何要给予股票历史最高的估值？这段时间内，利率也不曾降低。都说股市是基于未来经济预期的，这次美股为何没能“预见到”即将到来的衰退，并因此下跌呢？\n一种推测是，对于投资大众而言，疫情是一种相对陌生的事件，2月上旬的时候，大多数投资者并不确信其他投资者和消费者会对这事情有多关注，直到媒体和市场做出了更为强烈的反应，他们才如梦方醒。\n毕竟，上一次美国遭遇类似规模的疫情，还要追溯到1918年大流感，而这就意味着这种变故的市场影响力缺乏足够的统计分析。全球媒体对中国1月下旬开始的封锁抗疫工作报道不足，乃至于直至2月11日世卫组织命名“COVID-19”之前，这种病毒连个正式的名字都没有。\n\n在2月19日前的几周当中，美国公众对那些存在已久的问题，比如全球变暖、长期经济停滞和债务麻烦等的关注已经在渐渐消退。特朗普的弹劾大戏已经于2月5日落幕，但依然是街谈巷议的热门话题，许多政治家都觉得，当时并不是就一场可能爆发的全球性灾难发布预警的合适时机。\n第二阶段是从2月19日到3月23日，标普500指数暴跌34%，堪称是1929年大崩盘的再现。然而，需要指出的是，2月19日的当时，中国之外的死亡病例报道数字依然极为有限。这也许正说明，改变了投资者想法的其实并不是一条叙事线，而是许多条相关叙事线的综合作用。\n一些新闻现在看上去甚至有些荒谬。2月17日，媒体提到了囤积厕纸的行为，这个话题迅速扩散开来，大家都拿它当笑话讲。当然，同期内，全球媒体也越来越关心病毒的传播。3月11日，世卫组织将疫情定义为全球性大流行病。3月8日至14日的一周时间里，“pandemic”一词的互联网搜索量达到了峰值，接下来的一周里，则是“coronavirus”搜索量达到了峰值。\n\n看上去，第二阶段当中，人们是在匆忙地学习补课，努力了解这一古怪的新变故到底是怎么回事。大多数人一时间自己都完全是束手无措，更说不上去推断别人可能会做出怎样的反应，以及市场行情可能会受到怎样的影响了。\n伴随股市持续走低，疫情的可怕，以及封锁对经济造成的严重影响等，都大量以最鲜活的故事形式呈现在投资者面前。比如，美国大众得知，在意大利，由于医院负荷超过极限，医生被迫在病人当中进行取舍，决定治疗谁和不治疗谁。与此同时，各种媒体也开始不断回顾1930年代大萧条时期的往事了。\n第三阶段，即标普500指数上涨40%的道路，其标志性的起点是那些关于财政和货币政策强力反应的报道。3月23日，在利率已经被降至几乎为零后，美联储宣布了一个激进的计划，推出了各种创新性的信贷工具。四天后，特朗普总统签署了2万亿美元的《新冠病毒援助、救济与经济安全法案》，出台了力度惊人的财政刺激。\n\n美国的这些政策，以及许多其他国家的类似做法被媒体描述为当年全球金融危机和大衰退时政策反应的翻版，而众所周知，这些政策造就了一场刚开始虽然是缓步前进，但到最后无可阻挡的超级大牛市。从2009年3月9日到2020年2月19日，标普500指数涨了五倍。大多数投资者并不清楚地了解美联储的计划或者援助法案的内容，但是他们清楚地记得，十年前类似的措施曾经至少在股市上大获成功。\n这时，媒体也开始转而报道各种小规模崩盘和之后强势复苏的故事，比如2018年就有两次。大众的回忆被唤起，开始后悔自己在2009年底部，以及之后的那些暴跌中没有及时买进，这也很可能构成了一种心理暗示，让他们越来越倾向于认为2020年的市场到现在已经跌得足够低了。最终，害怕错过涨势的心理占据了上风，而伴随越来越多人入场，股价被推高，这种心理又反过来得到了进一步的强化。\n不难看出，在这疫情下三阶段的每一个当中，真正的新闻的影响力都是显而易见的。只不过，行情未必就一定会即时做出符合逻辑的反应，或者还不如说，大多数时候都不会。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":949532719,"gmtCreate":1594266497031,"gmtModify":1704204829999,"author":{"id":"3444732750101190","authorId":"3444732750101190","name":"行天下639800","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/7a9872d82227fdf805e09770cb2961a8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3444732750101190","authorIdStr":"3444732750101190"},"htmlText":"是的，大多数时候不会","listText":"是的，大多数时候不会","text":"是的，大多数时候不会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949532719","repostId":1135925545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":949224875,"gmtCreate":1594245757397,"gmtModify":1704204744762,"author":{"id":"3544180720938679","authorId":"3544180720938679","name":"梓源之源","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af44e2632a2559e0448c71e1dbef791","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544180720938679","authorIdStr":"3544180720938679"},"htmlText":"nb","listText":"nb","text":"nb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949224875","repostId":1135925545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":949699790,"gmtCreate":1594218267210,"gmtModify":1704204532001,"author":{"id":"3473341349004971","authorId":"3473341349004971","name":"穷鬼搬砖头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4188589cf16b2a778c86865067f3380a","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3473341349004971","authorIdStr":"3473341349004971"},"htmlText":"所以经济学家表达的意思中国股民早就懂了，就是什么分析什么估值什么环境，毛用都没，消息一吹，大水一放，庄家一带，韭菜一冲动，大妈一进场，就是不讲道理往上涨","listText":"所以经济学家表达的意思中国股民早就懂了，就是什么分析什么估值什么环境，毛用都没，消息一吹，大水一放，庄家一带，韭菜一冲动，大妈一进场，就是不讲道理往上涨","text":"所以经济学家表达的意思中国股民早就懂了，就是什么分析什么估值什么环境，毛用都没，消息一吹，大水一放，庄家一带，韭菜一冲动，大妈一进场，就是不讲道理往上涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949699790","repostId":1135925545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2622703,"gmtCreate":1594260112716,"gmtModify":1594260112716,"authorId":3517654395210046,"author":{"id":3517654395210046,"idStr":"3517654395210046","authorId":351765439521004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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":949600792,"gmtCreate":1594217669816,"gmtModify":1704204516583,"author":{"id":"3531738431767015","authorId":"3531738431767015","name":"TedZhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d3bdea7c17615d2a0add3e7ef95815","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3531738431767015","authorIdStr":"3531738431767015"},"htmlText":"其实智者应该就是这样:&nbsp;能够理性地使用相对有限的知识来阐释一件事情。诺奖获得者也不是神，承认自己的无知就是对的。","listText":"其实智者应该就是这样:&nbsp;能够理性地使用相对有限的知识来阐释一件事情。诺奖获得者也不是神，承认自己的无知就是对的。","text":"其实智者应该就是这样: 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