社区

Tesla released Q2 earnings and revenues last week that beat analysts' expectations.

"In the second quarter of 2021, we broke new and notable records," said Tesla in the company's second-quarter update. "We produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles, achieved an operating margin of 11% and exceeded [$1 billion] of GAAP net income for the first time in our history."

Here's a closer look at the quarter, captured by five must-see takeaways from the report.

1. Revenue hit $12 billion

Helped by a 121% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries, Tesla's revenue surged 98% year over year to approximately $12 billion. This crushed analysts' average forecast for revenue of $11.3 billion.

2. Profits skyrocketed

Of course, with revenue like this, it wasn't surprising to see profits soar. Net income increased from $104 million in the year-ago period to $1.14 billion. Non-GAAP (adjusted) net income increased 258% year over year to $1.6 billion. This translated to non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.45 -- far ahead of a consensus analyst estimate of $0.98.

The outsized growth in Tesla's profits demonstrates the scalability of the company's business model.

3. Free cash flow remains healthy

Tesla once again generated positive free cash flow, or cash flow from operations less capital expenditures. Free cash flow for the period increased from $418 million in the year-ago period to $619 million.

Total cash on hand fell from $17.1 billion in the first quarter of 2021 to $16.2 billion but this was primarily due to $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments.

4. Vehicle demand is robust

Tesla once again said demand for its vehicles achieved record levels. Indeed, demand is so robust that the company is supply constrained. "Global demand continues to be robust, and we are producing at the limits of available parts supply," Tesla explained.

5. There's more sharp growth to come

Importantly, Tesla remains optimistic about its growth trajectory. The company says it continues to expect to grow its total deliveries more than 50% year over year this year. This implies 2021 total deliveries of more than 750,000. So far, Tesla has delivered more than 386,000 vehicles this year.

"The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain," Tesla noted.

Four Challenges to Tesla’s Growth

However,investors are concerned with several factors that may slow Tesla's feverish share price growth soon.

High Valuation

Wall Street is an efficient market, discounting good news and bad news on listed companies. As a result, shares are run-up ahead of good news and sold-off ahead of bad news. Sometimes, Mr. Market—to use Benjamin Graham's terminology—is too optimistic, sending the shares of listed companies well above their fundamental or intrinsic value. Other times, Mr. Market is too pessimistic, sending shares of listed companies well below their intrinsic value.

Tesla's shares are overvalued by many standards. TipRanks, for instance, estimates Tesla's 12-month-trailing return on equity to be a modest 12.41%, while estimates put Tesla's intrinsic value at $160.11, well below its current price level.

Competition from Colonizers

Once, Tesla had little competition, as the electric vehicle (EV) market it pioneered had little competition from traditional automakers. However, that's no longer the case, as General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, and Toyota are invading the electric market.

These "colonizers" of the EV market have the manufacturing experience, expertise, and distribution networks to scale up EV production and cross the "tipping point" of bringing EVs to the masses. Meanwhile, the entry of new competitors into the EV market could unleash price competition that will erode Tesla's revenue growth and profit margins. That's something Wall Street is watching closely in quarterly financial statements.

Bitcoin Exposure

Tesla's CEO Elon Musk has an affinity for bitcoin. That's why he has been investing some of the company's cash in digital currency. As of the end of March, Tesla's $1.5 billion investment was worth $2.48 billion, based on the surge in bitcoin in the first quarter. However, that has its risks, too, given bitcoin's volatility.

Adding to bitcoin's volatility are accounting rules that treat the digital currency as an indefinite-lived intangible asset. Thus, it is subject to impairment losses if its fair value decreases below the carrying value during the assessed reporting period. Companies cannot recover impairment losses for any subsequent increase in fair value until the asset's sale. Tesla reported bitcoin-related impairments of $23 million in Q2 as the price of digital currency dived.

Rising Material Costs

Together with traditional automobile makers, Tesla faces a severe material shortage due to supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to slow down the pace of its feverish growth.

"While we're making cars at full speed, the global chip shortage situation remains quite serious," Musk told investors. "For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain," adding that there are a wide range of chips that will serve as that brake on growth.

Mixed reviews from Wall Street

Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill said Tesla shares are already priced to perfection, which could explain the stock’s weakness on Tuesday.

“Tesla's ‘priced to perfection’ valuation is hard for us to justify, even with more positive recent Results,” Gill wrote.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the quarter likely didn’t change the narrative for bulls or bears, and Tesla is still not a value stock priced at an enterprise multiple of 70x.

“Tesla is not only among the fastest growing auto companies in the world, it is also one of the most profitable,” Jonas wrote.

Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said auto gross margins were impressive, but they may not last.

“We see auto margins moderating in Q3/Q4 due to rising raw mat costs and mix dilution as the lower priced Model Y SR launches in China,” Langran wrote.

John Murphy with B. of A. Securities struck a more cautious tone. Despite the beat, "competition is fierce and heating up," he said. "(Tesla's) operating environment is shifting from that of a vacuum to an increasingly crowded space."

The quarterly beat was "very much helped by positive pricing dynamics and good execution," and Murphy raised his price target on the stock to $800 from $750, which represents an upside around 26% from Tuesday's prices. He kept B. of A.'s neutral rating on the stock.