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徐家小妹萌萌哒
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徐家小妹萌萌哒
05-22
$拼多多(PDD)$
上次财报先暴涨然后暴跌,这次反着来
徐家小妹萌萌哒
05-18
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
感觉meme股只要颓势一出来就回止不住跌
徐家小妹萌萌哒
05-14
$游戏驿站(GME)$
不是,你玩真的啊
徐家小妹萌萌哒
05-10
$Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$
为什么无法交易
徐家小妹萌萌哒
03-20
$拼多多(PDD)$
那个500万看空期权的哥呢
徐家小妹萌萌哒
03-19
$拼多多(PDD)$
怎么拼多多全是大单看跌期权,是老外有什么内幕消息吗
徐家小妹萌萌哒
03-05
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
为什么我会买到
$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$
这个垃圾[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
徐家小妹萌萌哒
03-04
$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$
怎么拉成这个样子
徐家小妹萌萌哒
02-22
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
跟大哥比起来太差劲了,枉我在你上面浪费几年青春[流泪] [流泪] 人生能有几次碰到英伟达
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2023-01-19
nikola不是骗子公司吗?
老虎锐评 | 除了特斯拉,美国其它造车新势力为啥起不来?
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-12-06
**老黄
【异动】英伟达盘前跌超3%,黄仁勋于上周出售股份
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-03-12
$亿邦国际(EBON)$
嘉楠,都涨50个点了,这垃圾还没回去。
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-03-04
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
别别跌了别跌了[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-02-22
$AMD(AMD)$
怎么回事呀,今年以来一直跌
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-02-17
$AMD(AMD)$
这是横了多久了,英伟达都涨
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-02-10
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
大盘跃跃欲跳
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-01-29
$晶科能源(JKS)$
你看看
$昱辉阳光(SOL)$
再看看你,垃圾李仙德
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-01-29
$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$
25跑了,老贾毕竟这个人人品还是不好。
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-01-28
$游戏驿站(GME)$
480挂的空单为什么说当前合约不允许做空
徐家小妹萌萌哒
2021-01-28
$晶科能源(JKS)$
晶科能源每天都是这种脑淤血走势,是不是那个国老在出货了。这也太恶心了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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人生能有几次碰到英伟达","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276768012431648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626610589,"gmtCreate":1674098080741,"gmtModify":1674098084350,"author":{"id":"52264971602181","authorId":"52264971602181","name":"徐家小妹萌萌哒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/135fa1f2a0684630f874286a3e6f4799","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"52264971602181","authorIdStr":"52264971602181"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nikola不是骗子公司吗?","listText":"nikola不是骗子公司吗?","text":"nikola不是骗子公司吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626610589","repostId":"1166333429","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166333429","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点,观察市场,提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673447105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166333429?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-11 22:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎锐评 | 除了特斯拉,美国其它造车新势力为啥起不来?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166333429","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"相较于闹哄哄的国内造车新势力,美国就非常冷清了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>谈谈美国的造车新势力</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在中国大幅降价后,引发了资本市场很多讨论。原来以为特斯拉会在美国也火速跟进降价,但是到目前为止还没有发生。我个人认为特斯拉在美国降价会发生,但是从特斯拉不着急的态度来看,特斯拉在美国的库存压力可能稍微小一点。</p><p>中国群雄四起的造车新势力,很容易让人联想到中国市场上的Android手机格局。这几年Android手机的厂商应该是少多了,几年前国产Android手机厂商多如牛毛,据说有的Android手机厂商为了销量把毛利做到50元人民币,但这些手机厂商最后消失了。当年也有冲击高端市场的Android手机厂商,比方说著名的锤子手机,但最后也是无功而返。毫不客气说,今天国内的造车新势力,就在复制当年国产Android手机的虚假繁荣。</p><p>相较于闹哄哄的国内造车新势力,美国就非常冷清了。除了传统车企努力在往EV转型过程中外和特斯拉以外,现在上市的有4个:NKLA、LCID、RIVN和FFIE,这4家至少有2家在资本市场被认为存在很大问题。市值最大的是Rivian,现在还有$150亿。关于Rivian一上市我就判断有水分的分析放在最后。美国的造车新势力格局也很像美国的Android手机厂商格局,毫无存在感。从全世界来看,说特斯拉是电动车里面的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>,一点都不为过。</p><p>为什么美国的新的造车势力起不来,从高维度分析有3个原因。</p><p><b>1,供应链的问题。</b>Rivian在2022年一共制造了不到25,000辆车,交付了大约20,000辆车。Lucid到现在也不公布它的2022年交付量,新闻媒体说今年应该可以生产6,000-7,000辆车。Rivian把产量上不去的原因部分归结于供应链问题,言下之意是它们拿不到零部件组装。这个完全可以理解,就像美国要开一个Android手机厂商,也会遇到拿不到零部件的问题,因为上游被中国基本上控制了。中国目前提炼世界上33%的镍,70%的锂和钴,99%的锰。</p><p>所以从这个角度来看,特斯拉当年在中国布局就非常明智了,市场和上游都能接触到。特斯拉的策略也很像苹果,尽管一定程度上受制于供应链,但是会尽可能自主研发。苹果手机的芯片是自己搞,特斯拉的电池也是自己搞,两者都不会完全依赖于供应链。自己搞的比例越大,成本就容易下去。去年车企普遍存在“缺芯”问题的时候,特斯拉的问题反而是最轻的。</p><p>所以从这个角度来看,美国的造车新势力,在美国的供应链建立起来之前,几乎是不可能发展起来的。产量很难上去,而产量上不去也就意味着成本下不来。</p><p><b>2,人才的问题。</b>特斯拉在发展过程中,曾经闹过一次高管纷纷离职,大概是2016-2017年。但是之后,人才就非常固定了。这批人,很多都是跟着特斯拉一起打江山的技术人员,这些技术人员对EV的整个发展都是了如指掌,可以说是世界最前沿。但是其他电动车新势力就很难有这样的人了,你别看Rivian上市融资了那么多,当年那么有钱,但是我就没听说过一个特斯拉高管从特斯拉转投Rivian的(有已经离职的特斯拉高管转投Rivian)。我相信Rivian肯定想挖人,但是没有成功。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc15c49bde5efa935f066237068b5e6a\" tg-width=\"421\" tg-height=\"145\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>下表是我们搜集的特斯拉的技术高管的任职时间,团队很稳定。的确,对于他们个人来说,待在特斯拉也是最佳选择。如果当初真的贪图Rivian上市的股票,估计现在肠子都悔青了。</p><p>倒是2016-2017年离职的那批人,最后都没什么好的归宿,比方说Nick Sampson离开特斯拉加入了FFIE,待了5年不到也离开了。最近刚加入BCG成为电动车咨询师,估计也是靠当年在特斯拉的经历。</p><p><b>3,美国造成新势力的CEO缺乏人设。</b>成功的科技公司,无论是不是电动车行业,都需要一个人设很强的CEO,这是灵魂。苹果的乔布斯,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的盖茨,都为了这个品牌增色不少。中国的电动三宝的3个CEO人设也很强,所以也是能够活到今天的重要原因。人设很强的CEO,能够引来资金,能够引来人才,更能够让整个供应链配合公司。</p><p>但是美国的造车新势力,无论是Rivian还是Lucid,CEO的存在感很低。不是说我对他们不了解,看看他们的维基百科个人介绍的长度就知道了。相较而言,对于一分钱广告都不投入的特斯拉,就凭借着天天制造话题,树立了非常强的人设,这对于特斯拉的成功功不可没。</p><p>中国的造车新势力会逐步进入整合阶段,而美国的造车新势力估计很难有存在感。</p><p><b>2021年11月10日,星期三:Rivian今日上市,估值$770亿 </b></p><p>本月初的时候,Rivian的IPO指导价是$57-62,到上周五的时候,IPO指导价提高到$72-74。昨晚的最后定价是$78,公司预计从市场融资$120亿。这个融资规模,能在美国历史上排到第6或者第7名(看绿鞋的情况)。第1名还是由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>占据,当年融资$210亿。和阿里巴巴不一样的是,这家公司到目前为止,依然是0收入,说是一家PPT公司也不为过(下图,来自于公司最新S1)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ce564820136ebc1f01c406213b1941\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这家公司最大的卖点,就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>的入股和支持,与其说这家公司的名字是Rivian,倒不如说是Amazon EV。我相信大部分机构抢购这家公司IPO,都是冲着亚马逊去的。亚马逊正在建立自己的快递车队,同时又承诺环境保护,Rivian的出现无疑和亚马逊的发展方向完美契合。Rivian承诺今年底会推出针对亚马逊的电动车,亚马逊也向Rivian订购了10万辆车。</p><p>大家都以为亚马逊是这家公司最大的卖点,但亚马逊其实是这家公司最大的软肋。</p><p>初创公司,特别是电动车初创公司,公司的创始人是一个标志性的“资产”。特斯拉的马斯克,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>的李斌,理想的李想,小鹏的何小鹏,甚至是法拉第的贾老板,每个人都是电动汽车的“脸面”。不光是因为这些创始人都有自己的传奇故事,更重要的是,面对电动车这种烧钱多见效慢的企业,无论是面对企业内部员工还是外部投资人,必须要一个强有力的人坐镇才行。多少股东曾经想和马斯克撕破脸,多少内部员工到处黑特斯拉的工作环境和马斯克的独断专行,但最后在马斯克的铁血统治下,公司依旧能够顺利前行。</p><p>除了创始人本身的魅力要足够大之外,公司的股权/投票权,必须要赋予创始人足够多的权力。</p><p>马斯克虽然只拥有约23%的股权/投票权,但是他通过一些列复杂的法律手段,保证了他对公司的绝对控制。中国的电动三宝就更不用说了,李斌的投票权39.3%,李想的投票权71%,何小鹏的投票权56.6%。再来看看Rivian的持股结构(下图),创始人Robert J. Scaringe在IPO之后,占股2%(A+B),投票权9.5%。无论是从利益分配,还是公司控制上,完全看不到创始人的动力。干得好,是为了其它大股东打工,干得不好,随时被各种大股东炒鱿鱼。千万别小看创始人持股或者控制权力,亏损企业能够一直在精神上打着鸡血前行,全靠股权上对创始人的刺激。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b150beeccc8da9dc36245803d737b0e8\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>除了创始人的股权过少外,亚马逊的持股数量更尴尬。</p><p>这个IPO最大的卖点之一,就是亚马逊和Rivian的10万辆车的合同。但仔细看S1文件,就会发现这个合同只是一个框架而已,并没有价格和数量的约束。(The EDV Agreement does not contain a minimum order quantity or minimum purchase requirements.)</p><p>很显然,亚马逊并非敞开胸怀拥抱Rivian,不然持股比例不可能只有20%左右。电动车是一个烧钱的行业大家都知道,要All-In是不可能的,但亚马逊又不愿意放弃战略投资,所以最后占比20%。亚马逊自认为20%的持股,进可攻退可守,但其它股东的持股决心,比亚马逊更不足。剩下的大股东持股比例也很平均。共同基金T Rowe Price(14.5%),中东投资公司Oryx不会对公司运营过度干预(12.2%),但这两家是说走就走;汽车公司Ford和Manheim (美国汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>交易平台Cox Automotive子公司)属于汽车相关行业,持股决心可能更强,但加起来持股才15%。一句话总结,大家都不愿意全力投入,都在想着自己的退路。而且一旦未来运营出现矛盾,这几家势必会玩各种宫斗剧,凑到50%的投票权。</p><p>当然,借着亚马逊的风,这家公司的股价肯定可以飞起来。但是从长远来看,无论是创始人还是大股东,全都在给自己留退路。最坏的情况,公司运营持续恶化,其它大股东不断撤离,最后亚马逊不得不被迫变成接盘侠,无限兜底。可惜,亚马逊现在还没预料到这种情况。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎锐评 | 除了特斯拉,美国其它造车新势力为啥起不来?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-11 22:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>谈谈美国的造车新势力</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在中国大幅降价后,引发了资本市场很多讨论。原来以为特斯拉会在美国也火速跟进降价,但是到目前为止还没有发生。我个人认为特斯拉在美国降价会发生,但是从特斯拉不着急的态度来看,特斯拉在美国的库存压力可能稍微小一点。</p><p>中国群雄四起的造车新势力,很容易让人联想到中国市场上的Android手机格局。这几年Android手机的厂商应该是少多了,几年前国产Android手机厂商多如牛毛,据说有的Android手机厂商为了销量把毛利做到50元人民币,但这些手机厂商最后消失了。当年也有冲击高端市场的Android手机厂商,比方说著名的锤子手机,但最后也是无功而返。毫不客气说,今天国内的造车新势力,就在复制当年国产Android手机的虚假繁荣。</p><p>相较于闹哄哄的国内造车新势力,美国就非常冷清了。除了传统车企努力在往EV转型过程中外和特斯拉以外,现在上市的有4个:NKLA、LCID、RIVN和FFIE,这4家至少有2家在资本市场被认为存在很大问题。市值最大的是Rivian,现在还有$150亿。关于Rivian一上市我就判断有水分的分析放在最后。美国的造车新势力格局也很像美国的Android手机厂商格局,毫无存在感。从全世界来看,说特斯拉是电动车里面的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>,一点都不为过。</p><p>为什么美国的新的造车势力起不来,从高维度分析有3个原因。</p><p><b>1,供应链的问题。</b>Rivian在2022年一共制造了不到25,000辆车,交付了大约20,000辆车。Lucid到现在也不公布它的2022年交付量,新闻媒体说今年应该可以生产6,000-7,000辆车。Rivian把产量上不去的原因部分归结于供应链问题,言下之意是它们拿不到零部件组装。这个完全可以理解,就像美国要开一个Android手机厂商,也会遇到拿不到零部件的问题,因为上游被中国基本上控制了。中国目前提炼世界上33%的镍,70%的锂和钴,99%的锰。</p><p>所以从这个角度来看,特斯拉当年在中国布局就非常明智了,市场和上游都能接触到。特斯拉的策略也很像苹果,尽管一定程度上受制于供应链,但是会尽可能自主研发。苹果手机的芯片是自己搞,特斯拉的电池也是自己搞,两者都不会完全依赖于供应链。自己搞的比例越大,成本就容易下去。去年车企普遍存在“缺芯”问题的时候,特斯拉的问题反而是最轻的。</p><p>所以从这个角度来看,美国的造车新势力,在美国的供应链建立起来之前,几乎是不可能发展起来的。产量很难上去,而产量上不去也就意味着成本下不来。</p><p><b>2,人才的问题。</b>特斯拉在发展过程中,曾经闹过一次高管纷纷离职,大概是2016-2017年。但是之后,人才就非常固定了。这批人,很多都是跟着特斯拉一起打江山的技术人员,这些技术人员对EV的整个发展都是了如指掌,可以说是世界最前沿。但是其他电动车新势力就很难有这样的人了,你别看Rivian上市融资了那么多,当年那么有钱,但是我就没听说过一个特斯拉高管从特斯拉转投Rivian的(有已经离职的特斯拉高管转投Rivian)。我相信Rivian肯定想挖人,但是没有成功。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc15c49bde5efa935f066237068b5e6a\" tg-width=\"421\" tg-height=\"145\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>下表是我们搜集的特斯拉的技术高管的任职时间,团队很稳定。的确,对于他们个人来说,待在特斯拉也是最佳选择。如果当初真的贪图Rivian上市的股票,估计现在肠子都悔青了。</p><p>倒是2016-2017年离职的那批人,最后都没什么好的归宿,比方说Nick Sampson离开特斯拉加入了FFIE,待了5年不到也离开了。最近刚加入BCG成为电动车咨询师,估计也是靠当年在特斯拉的经历。</p><p><b>3,美国造成新势力的CEO缺乏人设。</b>成功的科技公司,无论是不是电动车行业,都需要一个人设很强的CEO,这是灵魂。苹果的乔布斯,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的盖茨,都为了这个品牌增色不少。中国的电动三宝的3个CEO人设也很强,所以也是能够活到今天的重要原因。人设很强的CEO,能够引来资金,能够引来人才,更能够让整个供应链配合公司。</p><p>但是美国的造车新势力,无论是Rivian还是Lucid,CEO的存在感很低。不是说我对他们不了解,看看他们的维基百科个人介绍的长度就知道了。相较而言,对于一分钱广告都不投入的特斯拉,就凭借着天天制造话题,树立了非常强的人设,这对于特斯拉的成功功不可没。</p><p>中国的造车新势力会逐步进入整合阶段,而美国的造车新势力估计很难有存在感。</p><p><b>2021年11月10日,星期三:Rivian今日上市,估值$770亿 </b></p><p>本月初的时候,Rivian的IPO指导价是$57-62,到上周五的时候,IPO指导价提高到$72-74。昨晚的最后定价是$78,公司预计从市场融资$120亿。这个融资规模,能在美国历史上排到第6或者第7名(看绿鞋的情况)。第1名还是由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>占据,当年融资$210亿。和阿里巴巴不一样的是,这家公司到目前为止,依然是0收入,说是一家PPT公司也不为过(下图,来自于公司最新S1)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ce564820136ebc1f01c406213b1941\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这家公司最大的卖点,就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>的入股和支持,与其说这家公司的名字是Rivian,倒不如说是Amazon EV。我相信大部分机构抢购这家公司IPO,都是冲着亚马逊去的。亚马逊正在建立自己的快递车队,同时又承诺环境保护,Rivian的出现无疑和亚马逊的发展方向完美契合。Rivian承诺今年底会推出针对亚马逊的电动车,亚马逊也向Rivian订购了10万辆车。</p><p>大家都以为亚马逊是这家公司最大的卖点,但亚马逊其实是这家公司最大的软肋。</p><p>初创公司,特别是电动车初创公司,公司的创始人是一个标志性的“资产”。特斯拉的马斯克,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>的李斌,理想的李想,小鹏的何小鹏,甚至是法拉第的贾老板,每个人都是电动汽车的“脸面”。不光是因为这些创始人都有自己的传奇故事,更重要的是,面对电动车这种烧钱多见效慢的企业,无论是面对企业内部员工还是外部投资人,必须要一个强有力的人坐镇才行。多少股东曾经想和马斯克撕破脸,多少内部员工到处黑特斯拉的工作环境和马斯克的独断专行,但最后在马斯克的铁血统治下,公司依旧能够顺利前行。</p><p>除了创始人本身的魅力要足够大之外,公司的股权/投票权,必须要赋予创始人足够多的权力。</p><p>马斯克虽然只拥有约23%的股权/投票权,但是他通过一些列复杂的法律手段,保证了他对公司的绝对控制。中国的电动三宝就更不用说了,李斌的投票权39.3%,李想的投票权71%,何小鹏的投票权56.6%。再来看看Rivian的持股结构(下图),创始人Robert J. Scaringe在IPO之后,占股2%(A+B),投票权9.5%。无论是从利益分配,还是公司控制上,完全看不到创始人的动力。干得好,是为了其它大股东打工,干得不好,随时被各种大股东炒鱿鱼。千万别小看创始人持股或者控制权力,亏损企业能够一直在精神上打着鸡血前行,全靠股权上对创始人的刺激。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b150beeccc8da9dc36245803d737b0e8\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>除了创始人的股权过少外,亚马逊的持股数量更尴尬。</p><p>这个IPO最大的卖点之一,就是亚马逊和Rivian的10万辆车的合同。但仔细看S1文件,就会发现这个合同只是一个框架而已,并没有价格和数量的约束。(The EDV Agreement does not contain a minimum order quantity or minimum purchase requirements.)</p><p>很显然,亚马逊并非敞开胸怀拥抱Rivian,不然持股比例不可能只有20%左右。电动车是一个烧钱的行业大家都知道,要All-In是不可能的,但亚马逊又不愿意放弃战略投资,所以最后占比20%。亚马逊自认为20%的持股,进可攻退可守,但其它股东的持股决心,比亚马逊更不足。剩下的大股东持股比例也很平均。共同基金T Rowe Price(14.5%),中东投资公司Oryx不会对公司运营过度干预(12.2%),但这两家是说走就走;汽车公司Ford和Manheim (美国汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>交易平台Cox Automotive子公司)属于汽车相关行业,持股决心可能更强,但加起来持股才15%。一句话总结,大家都不愿意全力投入,都在想着自己的退路。而且一旦未来运营出现矛盾,这几家势必会玩各种宫斗剧,凑到50%的投票权。</p><p>当然,借着亚马逊的风,这家公司的股价肯定可以飞起来。但是从长远来看,无论是创始人还是大股东,全都在给自己留退路。最坏的情况,公司运营持续恶化,其它大股东不断撤离,最后亚马逊不得不被迫变成接盘侠,无限兜底。可惜,亚马逊现在还没预料到这种情况。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/246cd8c44f8d5b3ccb3590c3a62a3f19","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","FFIE":"Faraday Future","TSLA":"特斯拉","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166333429","content_text":"谈谈美国的造车新势力特斯拉在中国大幅降价后,引发了资本市场很多讨论。原来以为特斯拉会在美国也火速跟进降价,但是到目前为止还没有发生。我个人认为特斯拉在美国降价会发生,但是从特斯拉不着急的态度来看,特斯拉在美国的库存压力可能稍微小一点。中国群雄四起的造车新势力,很容易让人联想到中国市场上的Android手机格局。这几年Android手机的厂商应该是少多了,几年前国产Android手机厂商多如牛毛,据说有的Android手机厂商为了销量把毛利做到50元人民币,但这些手机厂商最后消失了。当年也有冲击高端市场的Android手机厂商,比方说著名的锤子手机,但最后也是无功而返。毫不客气说,今天国内的造车新势力,就在复制当年国产Android手机的虚假繁荣。相较于闹哄哄的国内造车新势力,美国就非常冷清了。除了传统车企努力在往EV转型过程中外和特斯拉以外,现在上市的有4个:NKLA、LCID、RIVN和FFIE,这4家至少有2家在资本市场被认为存在很大问题。市值最大的是Rivian,现在还有$150亿。关于Rivian一上市我就判断有水分的分析放在最后。美国的造车新势力格局也很像美国的Android手机厂商格局,毫无存在感。从全世界来看,说特斯拉是电动车里面的苹果,一点都不为过。为什么美国的新的造车势力起不来,从高维度分析有3个原因。1,供应链的问题。Rivian在2022年一共制造了不到25,000辆车,交付了大约20,000辆车。Lucid到现在也不公布它的2022年交付量,新闻媒体说今年应该可以生产6,000-7,000辆车。Rivian把产量上不去的原因部分归结于供应链问题,言下之意是它们拿不到零部件组装。这个完全可以理解,就像美国要开一个Android手机厂商,也会遇到拿不到零部件的问题,因为上游被中国基本上控制了。中国目前提炼世界上33%的镍,70%的锂和钴,99%的锰。所以从这个角度来看,特斯拉当年在中国布局就非常明智了,市场和上游都能接触到。特斯拉的策略也很像苹果,尽管一定程度上受制于供应链,但是会尽可能自主研发。苹果手机的芯片是自己搞,特斯拉的电池也是自己搞,两者都不会完全依赖于供应链。自己搞的比例越大,成本就容易下去。去年车企普遍存在“缺芯”问题的时候,特斯拉的问题反而是最轻的。所以从这个角度来看,美国的造车新势力,在美国的供应链建立起来之前,几乎是不可能发展起来的。产量很难上去,而产量上不去也就意味着成本下不来。2,人才的问题。特斯拉在发展过程中,曾经闹过一次高管纷纷离职,大概是2016-2017年。但是之后,人才就非常固定了。这批人,很多都是跟着特斯拉一起打江山的技术人员,这些技术人员对EV的整个发展都是了如指掌,可以说是世界最前沿。但是其他电动车新势力就很难有这样的人了,你别看Rivian上市融资了那么多,当年那么有钱,但是我就没听说过一个特斯拉高管从特斯拉转投Rivian的(有已经离职的特斯拉高管转投Rivian)。我相信Rivian肯定想挖人,但是没有成功。下表是我们搜集的特斯拉的技术高管的任职时间,团队很稳定。的确,对于他们个人来说,待在特斯拉也是最佳选择。如果当初真的贪图Rivian上市的股票,估计现在肠子都悔青了。倒是2016-2017年离职的那批人,最后都没什么好的归宿,比方说Nick Sampson离开特斯拉加入了FFIE,待了5年不到也离开了。最近刚加入BCG成为电动车咨询师,估计也是靠当年在特斯拉的经历。3,美国造成新势力的CEO缺乏人设。成功的科技公司,无论是不是电动车行业,都需要一个人设很强的CEO,这是灵魂。苹果的乔布斯,微软的盖茨,都为了这个品牌增色不少。中国的电动三宝的3个CEO人设也很强,所以也是能够活到今天的重要原因。人设很强的CEO,能够引来资金,能够引来人才,更能够让整个供应链配合公司。但是美国的造车新势力,无论是Rivian还是Lucid,CEO的存在感很低。不是说我对他们不了解,看看他们的维基百科个人介绍的长度就知道了。相较而言,对于一分钱广告都不投入的特斯拉,就凭借着天天制造话题,树立了非常强的人设,这对于特斯拉的成功功不可没。中国的造车新势力会逐步进入整合阶段,而美国的造车新势力估计很难有存在感。2021年11月10日,星期三:Rivian今日上市,估值$770亿 本月初的时候,Rivian的IPO指导价是$57-62,到上周五的时候,IPO指导价提高到$72-74。昨晚的最后定价是$78,公司预计从市场融资$120亿。这个融资规模,能在美国历史上排到第6或者第7名(看绿鞋的情况)。第1名还是由阿里巴巴占据,当年融资$210亿。和阿里巴巴不一样的是,这家公司到目前为止,依然是0收入,说是一家PPT公司也不为过(下图,来自于公司最新S1)。这家公司最大的卖点,就是亚马逊的入股和支持,与其说这家公司的名字是Rivian,倒不如说是Amazon EV。我相信大部分机构抢购这家公司IPO,都是冲着亚马逊去的。亚马逊正在建立自己的快递车队,同时又承诺环境保护,Rivian的出现无疑和亚马逊的发展方向完美契合。Rivian承诺今年底会推出针对亚马逊的电动车,亚马逊也向Rivian订购了10万辆车。大家都以为亚马逊是这家公司最大的卖点,但亚马逊其实是这家公司最大的软肋。初创公司,特别是电动车初创公司,公司的创始人是一个标志性的“资产”。特斯拉的马斯克,蔚来的李斌,理想的李想,小鹏的何小鹏,甚至是法拉第的贾老板,每个人都是电动汽车的“脸面”。不光是因为这些创始人都有自己的传奇故事,更重要的是,面对电动车这种烧钱多见效慢的企业,无论是面对企业内部员工还是外部投资人,必须要一个强有力的人坐镇才行。多少股东曾经想和马斯克撕破脸,多少内部员工到处黑特斯拉的工作环境和马斯克的独断专行,但最后在马斯克的铁血统治下,公司依旧能够顺利前行。除了创始人本身的魅力要足够大之外,公司的股权/投票权,必须要赋予创始人足够多的权力。马斯克虽然只拥有约23%的股权/投票权,但是他通过一些列复杂的法律手段,保证了他对公司的绝对控制。中国的电动三宝就更不用说了,李斌的投票权39.3%,李想的投票权71%,何小鹏的投票权56.6%。再来看看Rivian的持股结构(下图),创始人Robert J. Scaringe在IPO之后,占股2%(A+B),投票权9.5%。无论是从利益分配,还是公司控制上,完全看不到创始人的动力。干得好,是为了其它大股东打工,干得不好,随时被各种大股东炒鱿鱼。千万别小看创始人持股或者控制权力,亏损企业能够一直在精神上打着鸡血前行,全靠股权上对创始人的刺激。除了创始人的股权过少外,亚马逊的持股数量更尴尬。这个IPO最大的卖点之一,就是亚马逊和Rivian的10万辆车的合同。但仔细看S1文件,就会发现这个合同只是一个框架而已,并没有价格和数量的约束。(The EDV Agreement does not contain a minimum order quantity or minimum purchase requirements.)很显然,亚马逊并非敞开胸怀拥抱Rivian,不然持股比例不可能只有20%左右。电动车是一个烧钱的行业大家都知道,要All-In是不可能的,但亚马逊又不愿意放弃战略投资,所以最后占比20%。亚马逊自认为20%的持股,进可攻退可守,但其它股东的持股决心,比亚马逊更不足。剩下的大股东持股比例也很平均。共同基金T Rowe Price(14.5%),中东投资公司Oryx不会对公司运营过度干预(12.2%),但这两家是说走就走;汽车公司Ford和Manheim (美国汽车线上线下交易平台Cox Automotive子公司)属于汽车相关行业,持股决心可能更强,但加起来持股才15%。一句话总结,大家都不愿意全力投入,都在想着自己的退路。而且一旦未来运营出现矛盾,这几家势必会玩各种宫斗剧,凑到50%的投票权。当然,借着亚马逊的风,这家公司的股价肯定可以飞起来。但是从长远来看,无论是创始人还是大股东,全都在给自己留退路。最坏的情况,公司运营持续恶化,其它大股东不断撤离,最后亚马逊不得不被迫变成接盘侠,无限兜底。可惜,亚马逊现在还没预料到这种情况。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608717178,"gmtCreate":1638790153345,"gmtModify":1638790153345,"author":{"id":"52264971602181","authorId":"52264971602181","name":"徐家小妹萌萌哒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/135fa1f2a0684630f874286a3e6f4799","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"52264971602181","authorIdStr":"52264971602181"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**老黄","listText":"**老黄","text":"**老黄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608717178","repostId":"1177055716","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177055716","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638784306,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177055716?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】英伟达盘前跌超3%,黄仁勋于上周出售股份","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177055716","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月6日,英伟达盘前跌超3%,黄仁勋于上周出售44万股股份,总价值约1.4亿美元。\n根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的文件,12月1日,英伟达总裁,CEO黄仁勋行使期权购买了44万份期权,行权价","content":"<p>12月6日,英伟达盘前跌超3%,黄仁勋于上周出售44万股股份,总价值约1.4亿美元。</p>\n<p>根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的文件,12月1日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>总裁,CEO黄仁勋行使期权购买了44万份期权,行权价为3.615美元,再以每股326.16美元出售44万股英伟达股份,价值约1.4亿美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d198de71cbc1bc4a14e45b42d8d6fba6\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】英伟达盘前跌超3%,黄仁勋于上周出售股份\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-06 17:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月6日,英伟达盘前跌超3%,黄仁勋于上周出售44万股股份,总价值约1.4亿美元。</p>\n<p>根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的文件,12月1日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>总裁,CEO黄仁勋行使期权购买了44万份期权,行权价为3.615美元,再以每股326.16美元出售44万股英伟达股份,价值约1.4亿美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d198de71cbc1bc4a14e45b42d8d6fba6\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177055716","content_text":"12月6日,英伟达盘前跌超3%,黄仁勋于上周出售44万股股份,总价值约1.4亿美元。\n根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的文件,12月1日,英伟达总裁,CEO黄仁勋行使期权购买了44万份期权,行权价为3.615美元,再以每股326.16美元出售44万股英伟达股份,价值约1.4亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328166735,"gmtCreate":1615507436427,"gmtModify":1703490088599,"author":{"id":"52264971602181","authorId":"52264971602181","name":"徐家小妹萌萌哒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/135fa1f2a0684630f874286a3e6f4799","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"52264971602181","authorIdStr":"52264971602181"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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,然而财报后直接亏损百分之20。。此时的我已经心灰意冷,遂决定装死,无奈grpn依旧不争气,手上的仓位只剩下1000刀,亏损百分之66。。$GroupOn(GRPN)$ 的春季财报比较两眼,后来涨到了大约1700刀的样子,我卖出了,决定在这一财报季绝地反击。感谢@猫尔摩斯 的医药股分析,加上我是药学专业的学生,经过分析(xia mai)我买入了$凡利亚药品国际(VRX)$ ,这一波直接将我带到了2000刀以上,重新获得了杠杆机会。之后又赌了几个财报,暑假过后,资产上上下下,最高到了2800,不过还是定格在2200刀。$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$ 这只股票是我获得的最大日内收益的一支,彼时它因为旗下一款药品三期临床没有通过,暴跌百分之80,我决定抄底,在两天后,我莫名四点钟就醒了,直觉让我打开手机,一看一晚上涨了百分之50!!!不仅回本,还挣了几百刀。随后我没管住手,再次买入$二倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$ 以及$宜人贷(YRD)$ 等风险很大的股票,跟挣钱过意不去的我,再次来到","listText":"#炒美股有肉吃#相信这两年的美股大牛市已经让大家赚了不少肥肉了,然而我依旧承受着百分之20的亏损,艰难回本中。作为一个蠢蠢的大学生,15年高考结束后成功在a股大盘站上5000点时奋然入场,成了万千高位站岗的韭菜之一。16年春节过后,决定拿着自己仅有的两万元存款加入到美股大军中。然而之后的历程却是艰辛无比。关键词:回本初入美股,凭借着只知道杠杆etf的波动巨大,决定参与。第一笔便购入了大名鼎鼎的uvxy,第一天就成功被套。那时还是有些许忐忑,不过由于并不知道其损耗,而且简单得将他和标普500线性对应,让我死扛了几乎一个月后,看了老虎的杠杆etf教学后,大呼上当,决定放弃,拿下了800刀的亏损。紧接而来的财报季直接击倒了我,全仓赌入高朋$GroupOn(GRPN)$ ,然而财报后直接亏损百分之20。。此时的我已经心灰意冷,遂决定装死,无奈grpn依旧不争气,手上的仓位只剩下1000刀,亏损百分之66。。$GroupOn(GRPN)$ 的春季财报比较两眼,后来涨到了大约1700刀的样子,我卖出了,决定在这一财报季绝地反击。感谢@猫尔摩斯 的医药股分析,加上我是药学专业的学生,经过分析(xia 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