韭菜PIKA的个人主页 - 老虎社区

韭菜PIKA

韭菜PIKA

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IP属地：湖北

155关注

31粉丝

7主题

0勋章

2022-01-05

总共买了多少

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-27

哈哈，前几天买了，套的死死地

@Eventide:$维珍银河(SPCE)$抄底了

2021-04-07

稳步下行 [笑哭]

@Hoshihara:$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$就看你今晚会不会跌破1

2020-12-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

中金策略：疫情、疫苗与政策刺激的赛跑

2020-08-10

完了😱

@空军大队长:$腾讯控股(00700)$兄弟们抄底吗

2020-04-27

2020-04-26

港片《风云当当》上演

李国庆发告全体员工书：本人全面接管公司

2020-04-12

$达美航空(DAL)$双方在博弈中。财政部要求给航空公司援助是贷款和换股，航空公司觉得我负债低经营利润率高，疫情结束困难就过去了，为什么要接受条件差的援助？！我又不是波音。再说，现在每天在烧钱，大头是员工工资，把员工辞退了，再加上贷款，我就可以度过困难。辞退员工工资还是你**发。川普急了，快点解决。援助定了，航空业定了，人心才稳了。看看双方能谈出什么样的援助方案，拭目以待。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-11

$吉利德科学(GILD)$在我看来，副作用大，死亡率降低一半，效果不明显。不过媒体和专业人士都说不错，那应该不错。如果股票涨说明市场认可。通过市场反映判断疗效[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-05

小赌怡情，大赌伤身

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$特斯拉不常有，病猫常有。～来自接飞刀的人。

2020-02-15

$吉利德科学(GILD)$ 最新官方消息。集中主要药物的现状。貌似第二种第三种效果都不错。第二批瑞德西韦药物已经到了武汉，应该是扩大临床试验范围。

2016-04-29

美股这是怎么了？将会怎么样?

美股禁不起称赞的孩子，今年刚刚涨上来，最近$标普500指数ETF-SPDR(SPY)$ 有阴跌，为什么会这样?哪些原因导致的?大家对今年大盘有啥预测?为什么做这样的预测?请各抒己见，大家互相探讨一下。@Tony特别帅 @猫尔摩斯 @番茄君 @老虎证券 @IB关联户 @哆啦A梦

美股这是怎么了？将会怎么样?

2016-01-14

迪士尼上海6月份要开园了

$迪士尼(DIS)$ 迪士尼马上要开园，利好消息，这么大盘子，上浮大吗？

迪士尼上海6月份要开园了

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21:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中金策略：疫情、疫苗与政策刺激的赛跑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2091481583","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　短期来看，市场主要受疫情、疫苗和政策刺激这三股力量赛跑和拉锯的影响。与此同时，更多州也都开始出台更为严格的限制措施以应对疫情的升级。　　ii.疫苗：FDA批准美国首支疫苗使用，接下来关注获批疫苗具体投放情况。获得疫苗后，各州政府将有权决定哪些人群享有优先接种权。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<blockquote><p>　　炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p></blockquote> <p>　　来源： Kevin策略研究</p>\n<p>　　疫情、疫苗与政策刺激的赛跑</p>\n<p>　　——2020年12月7日~12月13日</p>\n<p>　　短期来看，市场主要受疫情、疫苗和政策刺激这三股力量赛跑和拉锯的影响。从上述三个变量角力看，疫苗积极进展和新一轮财政刺激出炉都有望成为提振情绪的新催化剂，但由于疫情仍在升级且预期提前计入，我们预计短期市场更多受此影响和压制，等待新催化剂出现。</p>\n<p>　　i. 疫情：美国第三波疫情持续升级，继续沿着新增&gt;&gt;住院&gt;&gt;ICU&gt;&gt;死亡的链条快速传导，各方面仍在恶化。与此同时，更多州也都开始出台更为严格的限制措施以应对疫情的升级。</p>\n<p>　　ii. 疫苗：FDA批准美国首支疫苗使用，接下来关注获批疫苗具体投放情况。最初的疫苗分配将仅能覆盖美国人口的一小部分，最有可能在医院和其他医疗机构中被率先使用，而大规模的接种最早可能在明年进行。</p>\n<p>　　iii. 财政刺激：新一轮财政刺激仍值得期待，但短期缺乏进展。由于圣诞节临近，美国国会将于21日休会至年末，所以如果下周仍无进展的话，新一轮财政刺激在年内通过的概率相对较低</p>\n<p>　　市场动态：疫情继续升级、FDA批准首支疫苗；市场盘整、利率回落</p>\n<p>　　过去一周，海外市场多数承压、欧美股市回落、美债利率特别是实际利率下行，这与我们在上周周报《美国当前疫情有多严重？》与12月资产配置月报《顺周期修复走到哪一步了？》中提示的总体大方向不变但短期情绪驱动且明显超买后可能出现波动的观点一致。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/22/w550h272/20201213/3b87-kffctca8658715.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　经过上周局部的盘整回调后，部分市场和资产的超买情况已经得到缓解，美股和美元的空头仓位也明显增加；但铜期货多头再创新高，新兴市场和原油也依然超买。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/142/w550h392/20201213/cc54-kffctca8665362.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/154/w550h404/20201213/71b7-kffctca8659125.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　短期来看，市场主要受疫情、疫苗和政策刺激这三股力量赛跑和拉锯的影响。1）如果仅看疫情的话，当前美国正在面临的第三波疫情严重程度要甚于以前过去一轮、对医疗资源的挤兑也愈发明显；新增、住院、ICU、死亡都早已超出3月高点。2）因此，如果没有11月以来多支疫苗积极进展的支撑，市场很难独善其身。周末FDA批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>首支疫苗在美国使用，具有重要“托底”意义，特别是对市场而言。但从疫情实际防控看，疫苗“远水不解近渴”，采取更多防控措施尽快压平曲线依然是必要的。3）疫情不断升级也使得新一轮财政刺激的必要性和期待增加，但短期缺乏进展，可能要到明年初。</p>\n<p>　　因此往前看，从上述三个变量角力的角度，疫苗积极进展和新一轮财政刺激出炉都有望成为提振情绪的新催化剂，但由于疫情仍在升级且预期提前计入，我们预计短期市场更多受此影响和压制，等待新催化剂出现。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/174/w550h424/20201213/eb4b-kffctca8659161.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　►资产表现：大宗&gt;债&gt;股；发达下跌、实际利率回落。过去一周，美元计价下，VIX多头、俄罗斯与巴西股汇、印度、原油、澳元、美国国债等领先；A/H股、欧洲股市、英镑、美股等落后。美股各板块中，仅能源、电信服务、生物科技上涨，汽车与零部件、半导体、房地产等大跌。此外，10年美债利率回落，特别是实际利率。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/27/w550h277/20201213/2d28-kffctca8659202.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/148/w550h398/20201213/37f7-kffctca8659239.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/179/w550h429/20201213/851c-kffctca8659266.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　►情绪仓位：VIX抬升，新兴超买；美股美元空头增加，铜多头新高。过去一周，VIX和美股看空/看多期权比例均有所抬升，美欧日股市RSI点位回落，但新兴市场继续抬升并进入超买区间。与此同时，美股美元空头大幅增加，而铜期货多头仓位继续增加并再创新高。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/184/w550h434/20201213/ec7a-kffctca8659289.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/176/w550h426/20201213/af00-kffctca8659315.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　►资金流向：欧美加速流入，中国继续吸引资金大幅流入。过去一周，美国、欧洲流入加速，新兴市场流入也依然强劲，为第12周流入，其中中国继续吸引大量资金。债券方面，高收益债及信用债流出，利率债转为大幅流入。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/182/w550h432/20201213/ca0f-kffctca8659345.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　►基本面与政策：美国11月通胀继续上行。美国11月通胀环比继续上行，同比持平；首申人数因疫情升级抬升，但12月密歇根消费者信心指数继续改善。盈利上，标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期继续上修，但盈利调整情绪下滑。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/109/w550h359/20201213/67ec-kffctca8659396.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/189/w550h439/20201213/df74-kffctca8659423.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　►市场估值：主要市场估值仍处高位。美股12月动态PE降至22倍；当前标普500指数28.6倍静态P/E略低于增长（11月PMI=57.5）和流动性（10年美债利率0.90%）能够支撑的合理水平（~28.9倍）。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/173/w550h423/20201213/b472-kffctca8659458.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　焦点讨论：疫情、疫苗与财政刺激的“赛跑”</p>\n<p>　　疫情、疫苗和财政刺激是三股左右短期市场表现的主要力量。正是得益于11月以来多支疫苗的积极进展，风险偏好特别是顺周期资产能够在疫情持续升级下大幅反弹。当前，美国疫情仍在升级尚无改善迹象，而FDA刚刚批准了首支辉瑞疫苗在美国的使用，但财政刺激谈判却依然进展缓慢。我们梳理了上述这三个变量的变化如下，供投资者参考。</p>\n<p>　　i. 疫情：美国第三波疫情持续升级，继续沿着新增&gt;&gt;住院&gt;&gt;ICU&gt;&gt;死亡的链条快速传导，各方面仍在恶化。与此同时，更多州也都开始出台更为严格的限制措施以应对疫情的升级。具体来看，根据OurWorldInData数据，截止2020年12月10日，1）美国日度新增确诊逼近23.2万人，再创高位；2）住院人数增加至10.7万人，ICU重症监护人数也继续攀升，医疗资源明显承压；3）在此背景下，日度新增死亡人数也持续增加，超过3月高点。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/104/w550h354/20201213/dd80-kffctca8659500.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/41/w550h291/20201213/c883-kffctca8659561.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/159/w550h409/20201213/2feb-kffctca8659593.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/174/w550h424/20201213/22a0-kffctca8659642.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/181/w550h431/20201213/5c01-kffctca8659683.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　为了控制疫情蔓延，美国更多州开始出台疫情防控限制性措施。例如，纽约州州长下令从下周起将再次关闭室内餐厅，私人住宅的室内及室外聚会不得超过10人[1]；加州州长宣布新的居家隔离令，并禁止在ICU病床可使用率低于15%的地区展开任何规模的聚会，除关键设施和零售业外其余商业运营全部关闭，要求强制佩戴口罩[2]。当前疫情的不断升级和防控措施的不断出台难免继续拖累复工进展，这从近期公布的宏观数据也能得到印证，例如上周首申人数从前一周的71.6万人再度攀升至85.3万人。目前欧美复工进展约为疫情前的65%，在过去的一个月基本持平微降。</p>\n<p>　　若没有疫苗积极进展的支撑，市场可能早已承压。虽然美国疫情自11月以来持续升级，但疫苗的积极进展频出抵消了市场对疫情的担忧，也在不断推动顺周期的修复逻辑。因此向前看，疫情和疫苗之间的“赛跑”仍是影响市场情绪的关键。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/118/w550h368/20201213/679e-kffctca8659727.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/481/w550h731/20201213/cd6c-kffctca8665660.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/87/w550h337/20201213/11ee-kffctca8658722.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/87/w550h337/20201213/f309-kffctca8664723.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/87/w550h337/20201213/9567-kffctca8659132.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　ii.疫苗：FDA批准美国首支疫苗使用，接下来关注获批疫苗具体投放情况。美国FDA本周五正式批准了辉瑞疫苗的使用，并有望在本月批准Moderna疫苗的使用[3]。辉瑞首批疫苗将于其位于密歇根州波塔奇的分销中心寄出。“曲速行动”项目（Operation Warp Speed）首席执行官表示美国预计获得640万剂辉瑞疫苗，其中第一批290万剂可能最早在本周末到达全国各医院，第二批290万剂将在几周后交付（新冠疫苗每人需接种两针，两针间隔21天）[4]。整体来看，最初的疫苗分配将仅能覆盖美国人口的一小部分，最有可能在医院和其他医疗机构中被率先使用，而大规模的接种最早可能在明年进行。</p>\n<p>　　根据美国国防部声明，疫苗在美国各州的分配是按比例确定的（与该州18岁以上成年人口成正比[5]）。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>的统计，加州预计本月将获得约200万剂疫苗（辉瑞 + Moderna），德州可能在年底前获得约140万剂疫苗[6]。获得疫苗后，各州政府将有权决定哪些人群享有优先接种权。以纽约州为例，州长表示最初分配到的17万剂疫苗（可为约9万人接种，占该州疫情医护人员的40%）将首先分配给养老院的居民和员工以及“高风险”医务人员，其次是需长期护理的患者和其他医务人员[7]。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/172/w550h422/20201213/e4e7-kffctca8659177.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　从各国采购情况来看，发达国家大幅领先新兴市场，与我们在2021年展望《疫情径曲、补库通幽》中分析的情形一致。从各国采购的疫苗情况看，当前备选疫苗领先的辉瑞和Moderna疫苗订单最多的国家和地区主要分布在欧盟、美国、英国、加拿大和日本。根据杜克大学的统计，截止2020年12月11日，美国共订购了1亿剂辉瑞疫苗和1亿剂Moderna疫苗[8]，“曲速行动”项目果没有11月以来多又增加了1亿剂Moderna疫苗的订单[9]。值得注意的是，疫苗运输同时受到政府批准速度、产能、和运输能力（-70℃）三个因素影响[10]。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/156/w550h406/20201213/74e0-kffctca8659207.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/164/w550h414/20201213/3e75-kffctca8664868.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　iii. 财政刺激：新一轮财政刺激仍值得期待，但短期缺乏进展。疫情的持续升级以及封锁措施对增长和需求的拖累都意味着新一轮财政刺激依然必要且关键，但短期来看进展缓慢。此前共和民主两党在刺激规模上的分歧较大（民主党2.2万亿美元vs.共和党5000亿美元），财政部长姆努钦周二向众议院长佩洛西提出规模9160亿美元的提议，包括个人和家庭补贴，但取消了每周300美元的失业救济。当前该计划受到两党关注，两党也正在协同完善此前由参议院推出的9080亿美元的刺激方案版本。不过由于圣诞节临近，美国国会将于21日休会至年末，所以如果下周仍无进展的话，新一轮财政刺激在年内通过的概率相对较低[11]。</p>\n<p>　　[1] https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home</p>\n<p>　　[2] https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/</p>\n<p>　　[3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-is-authorized-in-the-u-s-11607740101</p>\n<p>　　[4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-09/first-u-s-shipments-of-pfizer-vaccine-will-be-2-9-million-doses</p>\n<p>　　[5] https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2441698/pro-rata-vaccine-distribution-is-fair-equitable/</p>\n<p>　　[6] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/11/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html</p>\n<p>　　[7] https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-vaccination-distribution-plan</p>\n<p>　　[8] https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19</p>\n<p>　　[9] https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/government-buys-moderna-vaccine-444626</p>\n<p>　　[10]https://www.wsj.com/articles/fragile-covid-19-vaccine-rolled-out-in-the-u-k-tests-global-supply-network-11607468333?mod=hp_lead_po1</p>\n<p>　　[11] https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2020_schedule.htm</p>\n<p>　　近期重点专题报告</p>\n<p>　　#1 2021年展望：疫情径曲、补库通幽</p>\n<p>　　紧盯需求来源（美国消费库存回补）；关注供给变化（新兴何时用上疫苗）；配置中美联动逻辑；但此“顺周期”非彼顺周期（相比2016年，供给和需求两端冲击方式和方向都不同），库存能否转化为资本开支还有路要走；美债利率抬升复制中国2~3季度；至于美元，是否预期过于趋同？</p>\n<p>　　#2 资产配置专题：如果新一轮补库周期开启</p>\n<p>　　但，这次很不一样</p>\n<p>　　#3 美国大选结果的三层影响</p>\n<p>　　对美国自身、对国际格局、对中美关系对内大幅支出、缩窄贫富差距；对外重塑全球影响力</p>\n<p>　　#4 疫情后美股盈利修复如何？哪些板块更强？</p>\n<p>　　#5 疫情对美国企业资产负债表的影响与启示</p>\n<p>　　#6美股当前顺周期轮动持续性如何？</p>\n<p>　　#7 拜登新内阁主要人选的主张与可能影响</p>\n<p>　　#8 海外资产配置月报：顺周期修复走到哪一步了?（2020-12）</p>\n<p>　　#9 美国当前疫情有多严重？</p>\n<p>　　文章来源</p>\n<p>　　本报告摘自：2020年12月6日已经发布的《美国当前疫情有多严重？》</p>\n<p>　　分析师：刘   刚，CFA SAC  执业证书编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867</p>\n<p>　　联系人：李赫民 执业证书编号：S0080120090056</p>\n<p>　　分析师：王汉锋，CFA SAC 执证编号：S0080513080002 SFC CE Ref：AND454</p>\n<p>　　法律声明</p>\n<p>　　向上滑动参见完整法律声明及二维码</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/305/w550h1355/20200116/ee91-imztzhp3841873.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/><span></span></div>\n<div>\n<span>扫二维码 领开户福利！</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</font><p><span>免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</span></p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：陈志杰 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金策略：疫情、疫苗与政策刺激的赛跑</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金策略：疫情、疫苗与政策刺激的赛跑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-13 21:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2020-12-13/doc-iiznezxs6732546.shtml><strong>新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　来源： Kevin策略研究\n　　疫情、疫苗与政策刺激的赛跑\n　　——2020年12月7日~12月13日\n　　短期来看，市场主要受疫情、疫苗和政策刺激这三股力量赛跑和拉锯的影响。从上述三个变量角力看，疫苗积极进展和新一轮财政刺激出炉都有望成为提振情绪的新催化剂，但由于疫情仍在升级且预期提前计入，我们预计短期市场更多受此影响...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2020-12-13/doc-iiznezxs6732546.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e559c5a8390713a5a8d4b07a2667368d","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2020-12-13/doc-iiznezxs6732546.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2091481583","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　来源： Kevin策略研究\n　　疫情、疫苗与政策刺激的赛跑\n　　——2020年12月7日~12月13日\n　　短期来看，市场主要受疫情、疫苗和政策刺激这三股力量赛跑和拉锯的影响。从上述三个变量角力看，疫苗积极进展和新一轮财政刺激出炉都有望成为提振情绪的新催化剂，但由于疫情仍在升级且预期提前计入，我们预计短期市场更多受此影响和压制，等待新催化剂出现。\n　　i. 疫情：美国第三波疫情持续升级，继续沿着新增>>住院>>ICU>>死亡的链条快速传导，各方面仍在恶化。与此同时，更多州也都开始出台更为严格的限制措施以应对疫情的升级。\n　　ii. 疫苗：FDA批准美国首支疫苗使用，接下来关注获批疫苗具体投放情况。最初的疫苗分配将仅能覆盖美国人口的一小部分，最有可能在医院和其他医疗机构中被率先使用，而大规模的接种最早可能在明年进行。\n　　iii. 财政刺激：新一轮财政刺激仍值得期待，但短期缺乏进展。由于圣诞节临近，美国国会将于21日休会至年末，所以如果下周仍无进展的话，新一轮财政刺激在年内通过的概率相对较低\n　　市场动态：疫情继续升级、FDA批准首支疫苗；市场盘整、利率回落\n　　过去一周，海外市场多数承压、欧美股市回落、美债利率特别是实际利率下行，这与我们在上周周报《美国当前疫情有多严重？》与12月资产配置月报《顺周期修复走到哪一步了？》中提示的总体大方向不变但短期情绪驱动且明显超买后可能出现波动的观点一致。\n\n　　经过上周局部的盘整回调后，部分市场和资产的超买情况已经得到缓解，美股和美元的空头仓位也明显增加；但铜期货多头再创新高，新兴市场和原油也依然超买。\n\n\n　　短期来看，市场主要受疫情、疫苗和政策刺激这三股力量赛跑和拉锯的影响。1）如果仅看疫情的话，当前美国正在面临的第三波疫情严重程度要甚于以前过去一轮、对医疗资源的挤兑也愈发明显；新增、住院、ICU、死亡都早已超出3月高点。2）因此，如果没有11月以来多支疫苗积极进展的支撑，市场很难独善其身。周末FDA批准辉瑞首支疫苗在美国使用，具有重要“托底”意义，特别是对市场而言。但从疫情实际防控看，疫苗“远水不解近渴”，采取更多防控措施尽快压平曲线依然是必要的。3）疫情不断升级也使得新一轮财政刺激的必要性和期待增加，但短期缺乏进展，可能要到明年初。\n　　因此往前看，从上述三个变量角力的角度，疫苗积极进展和新一轮财政刺激出炉都有望成为提振情绪的新催化剂，但由于疫情仍在升级且预期提前计入，我们预计短期市场更多受此影响和压制，等待新催化剂出现。\n\n　　►资产表现：大宗>债>股；发达下跌、实际利率回落。过去一周，美元计价下，VIX多头、俄罗斯与巴西股汇、印度、原油、澳元、美国国债等领先；A/H股、欧洲股市、英镑、美股等落后。美股各板块中，仅能源、电信服务、生物科技上涨，汽车与零部件、半导体、房地产等大跌。此外，10年美债利率回落，特别是实际利率。\n\n\n\n　　►情绪仓位：VIX抬升，新兴超买；美股美元空头增加，铜多头新高。过去一周，VIX和美股看空/看多期权比例均有所抬升，美欧日股市RSI点位回落，但新兴市场继续抬升并进入超买区间。与此同时，美股美元空头大幅增加，而铜期货多头仓位继续增加并再创新高。\n\n\n　　►资金流向：欧美加速流入，中国继续吸引资金大幅流入。过去一周，美国、欧洲流入加速，新兴市场流入也依然强劲，为第12周流入，其中中国继续吸引大量资金。债券方面，高收益债及信用债流出，利率债转为大幅流入。\n\n　　►基本面与政策：美国11月通胀继续上行。美国11月通胀环比继续上行，同比持平；首申人数因疫情升级抬升，但12月密歇根消费者信心指数继续改善。盈利上，标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期继续上修，但盈利调整情绪下滑。\n\n\n　　►市场估值：主要市场估值仍处高位。美股12月动态PE降至22倍；当前标普500指数28.6倍静态P/E略低于增长（11月PMI=57.5）和流动性（10年美债利率0.90%）能够支撑的合理水平（~28.9倍）。\n\n　　焦点讨论：疫情、疫苗与财政刺激的“赛跑”\n　　疫情、疫苗和财政刺激是三股左右短期市场表现的主要力量。正是得益于11月以来多支疫苗的积极进展，风险偏好特别是顺周期资产能够在疫情持续升级下大幅反弹。当前，美国疫情仍在升级尚无改善迹象，而FDA刚刚批准了首支辉瑞疫苗在美国的使用，但财政刺激谈判却依然进展缓慢。我们梳理了上述这三个变量的变化如下，供投资者参考。\n　　i. 疫情：美国第三波疫情持续升级，继续沿着新增>>住院>>ICU>>死亡的链条快速传导，各方面仍在恶化。与此同时，更多州也都开始出台更为严格的限制措施以应对疫情的升级。具体来看，根据OurWorldInData数据，截止2020年12月10日，1）美国日度新增确诊逼近23.2万人，再创高位；2）住院人数增加至10.7万人，ICU重症监护人数也继续攀升，医疗资源明显承压；3）在此背景下，日度新增死亡人数也持续增加，超过3月高点。\n\n\n\n\n\n　　为了控制疫情蔓延，美国更多州开始出台疫情防控限制性措施。例如，纽约州州长下令从下周起将再次关闭室内餐厅，私人住宅的室内及室外聚会不得超过10人[1]；加州州长宣布新的居家隔离令，并禁止在ICU病床可使用率低于15%的地区展开任何规模的聚会，除关键设施和零售业外其余商业运营全部关闭，要求强制佩戴口罩[2]。当前疫情的不断升级和防控措施的不断出台难免继续拖累复工进展，这从近期公布的宏观数据也能得到印证，例如上周首申人数从前一周的71.6万人再度攀升至85.3万人。目前欧美复工进展约为疫情前的65%，在过去的一个月基本持平微降。\n　　若没有疫苗积极进展的支撑，市场可能早已承压。虽然美国疫情自11月以来持续升级，但疫苗的积极进展频出抵消了市场对疫情的担忧，也在不断推动顺周期的修复逻辑。因此向前看，疫情和疫苗之间的“赛跑”仍是影响市场情绪的关键。\n\n\n\n\n\n　　ii.疫苗：FDA批准美国首支疫苗使用，接下来关注获批疫苗具体投放情况。美国FDA本周五正式批准了辉瑞疫苗的使用，并有望在本月批准Moderna疫苗的使用[3]。辉瑞首批疫苗将于其位于密歇根州波塔奇的分销中心寄出。“曲速行动”项目（Operation Warp Speed）首席执行官表示美国预计获得640万剂辉瑞疫苗，其中第一批290万剂可能最早在本周末到达全国各医院，第二批290万剂将在几周后交付（新冠疫苗每人需接种两针，两针间隔21天）[4]。整体来看，最初的疫苗分配将仅能覆盖美国人口的一小部分，最有可能在医院和其他医疗机构中被率先使用，而大规模的接种最早可能在明年进行。\n　　根据美国国防部声明，疫苗在美国各州的分配是按比例确定的（与该州18岁以上成年人口成正比[5]）。根据纽约时报的统计，加州预计本月将获得约200万剂疫苗（辉瑞 + Moderna），德州可能在年底前获得约140万剂疫苗[6]。获得疫苗后，各州政府将有权决定哪些人群享有优先接种权。以纽约州为例，州长表示最初分配到的17万剂疫苗（可为约9万人接种，占该州疫情医护人员的40%）将首先分配给养老院的居民和员工以及“高风险”医务人员，其次是需长期护理的患者和其他医务人员[7]。\n\n　　从各国采购情况来看，发达国家大幅领先新兴市场，与我们在2021年展望《疫情径曲、补库通幽》中分析的情形一致。从各国采购的疫苗情况看，当前备选疫苗领先的辉瑞和Moderna疫苗订单最多的国家和地区主要分布在欧盟、美国、英国、加拿大和日本。根据杜克大学的统计，截止2020年12月11日，美国共订购了1亿剂辉瑞疫苗和1亿剂Moderna疫苗[8]，“曲速行动”项目果没有11月以来多又增加了1亿剂Moderna疫苗的订单[9]。值得注意的是，疫苗运输同时受到政府批准速度、产能、和运输能力（-70℃）三个因素影响[10]。\n\n\n　　iii. 财政刺激：新一轮财政刺激仍值得期待，但短期缺乏进展。疫情的持续升级以及封锁措施对增长和需求的拖累都意味着新一轮财政刺激依然必要且关键，但短期来看进展缓慢。此前共和民主两党在刺激规模上的分歧较大（民主党2.2万亿美元vs.共和党5000亿美元），财政部长姆努钦周二向众议院长佩洛西提出规模9160亿美元的提议，包括个人和家庭补贴，但取消了每周300美元的失业救济。当前该计划受到两党关注，两党也正在协同完善此前由参议院推出的9080亿美元的刺激方案版本。不过由于圣诞节临近，美国国会将于21日休会至年末，所以如果下周仍无进展的话，新一轮财政刺激在年内通过的概率相对较低[11]。\n　　[1] https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home\n　　[2] https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/\n　　[3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-is-authorized-in-the-u-s-11607740101\n　　[4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-09/first-u-s-shipments-of-pfizer-vaccine-will-be-2-9-million-doses\n　　[5] https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2441698/pro-rata-vaccine-distribution-is-fair-equitable/\n　　[6] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/11/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html\n　　[7] https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-vaccination-distribution-plan\n　　[8] https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19\n　　[9] https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/government-buys-moderna-vaccine-444626\n　　[10]https://www.wsj.com/articles/fragile-covid-19-vaccine-rolled-out-in-the-u-k-tests-global-supply-network-11607468333?mod=hp_lead_po1\n　　[11] https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2020_schedule.htm\n　　近期重点专题报告\n　　#1 2021年展望：疫情径曲、补库通幽\n　　紧盯需求来源（美国消费库存回补）；关注供给变化（新兴何时用上疫苗）；配置中美联动逻辑；但此“顺周期”非彼顺周期（相比2016年，供给和需求两端冲击方式和方向都不同），库存能否转化为资本开支还有路要走；美债利率抬升复制中国2~3季度；至于美元，是否预期过于趋同？\n　　#2 资产配置专题：如果新一轮补库周期开启\n　　但，这次很不一样\n　　#3 美国大选结果的三层影响\n　　对美国自身、对国际格局、对中美关系对内大幅支出、缩窄贫富差距；对外重塑全球影响力\n　　#4 疫情后美股盈利修复如何？哪些板块更强？\n　　#5 疫情对美国企业资产负债表的影响与启示\n　　#6美股当前顺周期轮动持续性如何？\n　　#7 拜登新内阁主要人选的主张与可能影响\n　　#8 海外资产配置月报：顺周期修复走到哪一步了?（2020-12）\n　　#9 美国当前疫情有多严重？\n　　文章来源\n　　本报告摘自：2020年12月6日已经发布的《美国当前疫情有多严重？》\n　　分析师：刘   刚，CFA SAC  执业证书编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867\n　　联系人：李赫民 执业证书编号：S0080120090056\n　　分析师：王汉锋，CFA SAC 执证编号：S0080513080002 SFC CE Ref：AND454\n　　法律声明\n　　向上滑动参见完整法律声明及二维码\n\n\n\n扫二维码 领开户福利！\n\n\n新浪声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：陈志杰","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944510565,"gmtCreate":1597061826357,"gmtModify":1704214197448,"author":{"id":"51471756433604","authorId":"51471756433604","name":"韭菜PIKA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8790a4e6a56229acc72938aca19079cc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"51471756433604","idStr":"51471756433604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"完了😱","listText":"完了😱","text":"完了😱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944510565","repostId":"944224871","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":944224871,"gmtCreate":1597046551393,"gmtModify":1704214117829,"author":{"id":"74125836878304","authorId":"74125836878304","name":"空军大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491ac6b2de4e6f00b0c07853ca1c186b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"74125836878304","idStr":"74125836878304"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>兄弟们抄底吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>兄弟们抄底吗","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$兄弟们抄底吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d35e6bf49456dec23c2f51533b26488","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944224871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925868133,"gmtCreate":1587974443322,"gmtModify":1704365896739,"author":{"id":"51471756433604","authorId":"51471756433604","name":"韭菜PIKA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8790a4e6a56229acc72938aca19079cc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"51471756433604","idStr":"51471756433604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"李国庆抢走公章的真相：意在离婚案平分股权，“想算计我一分钱，我都拼命”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3514329116425907\">@小虎AV</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\">@Tony特别帅</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532831849818465\">@许亚鑫</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3481170827495699\">@smallnew小牛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/422101323672\">@lily李</a>","listText":"李国庆抢走公章的真相：意在离婚案平分股权，“想算计我一分钱，我都拼命”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3514329116425907\">@小虎AV</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\">@Tony特别帅</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532831849818465\">@许亚鑫</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3481170827495699\">@smallnew小牛</a><a 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2020-04-26/doc-iirczymi8428893.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca5a0b68bdcd00f3117962abbedc90e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2020-04-26/doc-iirczymi8428893.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132934930","content_text":"4月26日消息，据我是律师的朋友、首席内幕官等微博大V爆料，李国庆今日率4条大汉上门抢当当公章。并在公司张贴《告当当网全体员工书》，告员工书指出，李国庆全面接管公司，负责公司的经营管理。俞渝不再担任当当公司执行董事、法定代表人及总经理。俞渝无权在当当公司公司形式任何职权，无权向当当员工发出任何指示，无权代表当当公司对外做出任何意思表示或者行为。划重点：1．李国庆出于维护当当大局和家庭关系的维系等因素，禅让公司管理权3年。2．俞渝拒绝给股东分红，在公司连续5年盈利的情况下从不分红。3．新冠肺炎疫情期间，当当网员工确诊。六十余名员工被集中隔离观察，二百余名员工居家隔离观察。4．李国庆于2020年4月24日召开临时股东会，并作出决议：公司依法成立董事会。5．自2020年4月24日起，俞渝不再担任当当公司执行董事、法定代表人及总经理。俞渝无权在当当公司公司形式任何职权，无权向当当员工发出任何指示，无权代表当当公司对外做出任何意思表示或者行为。6．李国庆全面接管公司，负责公司的经营管理。同时宣布以下决定：1．自2020年2月1日始至今，以“开除、辞退、优化”等方式的人事流程全部终止，已被单方面辞退的员工，可与公司协商，协商一致重新签署劳动合同返岗。2． 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a>双方在博弈中。财政部要求给航空公司援助是贷款和换股，航空公司觉得我负债低经营利润率高，疫情结束困难就过去了，为什么要接受条件差的援助？！我又不是波音。再说，现在每天在烧钱，大头是员工工资，把员工辞退了，再加上贷款，我就可以度过困难。辞退员工工资还是你**发。川普急了，快点解决。援助定了，航空业定了，人心才稳了。看看双方能谈出什么样的援助方案，拭目以待。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a>双方在博弈中。财政部要求给航空公司援助是贷款和换股，航空公司觉得我负债低经营利润率高，疫情结束困难就过去了，为什么要接受条件差的援助？！我又不是波音。再说，现在每天在烧钱，大头是员工工资，把员工辞退了，再加上贷款，我就可以度过困难。辞退员工工资还是你**发。川普急了，快点解决。援助定了，航空业定了，人心才稳了。看看双方能谈出什么样的援助方案，拭目以待。","text":"$达美航空(DAL)$双方在博弈中。财政部要求给航空公司援助是贷款和换股，航空公司觉得我负债低经营利润率高，疫情结束困难就过去了，为什么要接受条件差的援助？！我又不是波音。再说，现在每天在烧钱，大头是员工工资，把员工辞退了，再加上贷款，我就可以度过困难。辞退员工工资还是你**发。川普急了，快点解决。援助定了，航空业定了，人心才稳了。看看双方能谈出什么样的援助方案，拭目以待。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928884209","repostId":"2026931261","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2026931261","pubTimestamp":1586647260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2026931261?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-12 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airlines want U.S. Treasury to scrap proposal to make some grant money repayable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2026931261","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"By David Shepardson and Tracy Rucinski\nWASHINGTON/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Major U.S. airlines were urgin","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<img src=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/images/news2/167/16733765/resize_LYNXNPEG3A0JN.jpg\"/>\n</div>\n</div>\n<p>By David Shepardson and Tracy Rucinski</p>\n<p>WASHINGTON/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Major U.S. airlines were urging Treasury officials and the federal government's outside advisers on Saturday to scrap or revise a proposal that would make part of the $25 billion earmarked by Congress to help keep workers on the payroll repayable in the form of low-cost loans.</p>\n<p>Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the airlines on Friday the government would require them to repay 30% of the grants in low-cost loans over 10 years -- with the first five years at 1% interest -- before the interest rate would rise. The government is also seeking warrants equal to 10% of the loan amount.</p>\n<p>U.S. airlines have idled more than 2,200 airplanes, a third of the fleet, canceled hundreds of thousands of flights and sought to shore up their balance sheets as travel demand has fallen by about 95% because of the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>Airlines, in calls with U.S. Treasury officials and the government's outside advisers, were making the case that Treasury should not require them to repay a big chunk of grants, in part because the $25 billion is not sufficient to cover the full amount of payroll costs submitted.</p>\n<p>Airlines for America, a trade group representing American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL), United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU), Alaska Airlines (NYSE: ALK) and others, said Saturday it believes the $25 billion in payroll assistance was \"to be only in grants – which is considerably more effective for our employees – and not a combination of grants and loans.\"</p>\n<p>Under the terms laid out in the statute, companies receiving funds cannot lay off employees before Sept. 30 or change collective bargaining agreements. Mnuchin has authority to demand compensation for the grants but is not required to do   so.</p>\n<p>Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants union, wrote on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> Saturday that if Treasury insists on airlines repaying $7 billion in grants, \"job cuts will happen now AND longer term cuts will come in October. This is absolutely stealing from the money Congress allocated directly to workers.\"</p>\n<p>Congress set aside another $25 billion in loans to passenger airlines, but no action on those is expected until Treasury makes decisions on the grants.</p>\n<p>Some airlines were seeking other changes in the terms including ensuring grant funds are paid as a lump sum rather than on a monthly basis.</p>\n<p>The Treasury said Friday Mnuchin will not require passenger air carriers that will receive $100 million in assistance or less to provide compensation.</p>\n<p>Reuters first reported the terms Mnuchin proposed to carriers.</p>\n<p>Treasury said Friday it is working with 12 larger passenger air carriers \"to secure appropriate financial instruments to compensate taxpayers.\"</p>\n<p>Airlines were told they could apply for the amount they paid in salaries and benefits in the second and third quarters of 2019. American Airlines, with the largest number of employees, had said it was seeking around $6 billion. </p>\n\n<p> (Reporting by David Shepardson and Tracy Rucinski; Editing by Leslie Adler)</p> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airlines want U.S. Treasury to scrap proposal to make some grant money repayable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirlines want U.S. Treasury to scrap proposal to make some grant money repayable\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-12 07:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=16733765><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>By David Shepardson and Tracy Rucinski\nWASHINGTON/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Major U.S. airlines were urging Treasury officials and the federal government's outside advisers on Saturday to scrap or revise a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=16733765\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAL":"美国航空","DAL":"达美航空","UAL":"联合大陆航空"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=16733765","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2026931261","content_text":"By David Shepardson and Tracy Rucinski\nWASHINGTON/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Major U.S. airlines were urging Treasury officials and the federal government's outside advisers on Saturday to scrap or revise a proposal that would make part of the $25 billion earmarked by Congress to help keep workers on the payroll repayable in the form of low-cost loans.\nTreasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the airlines on Friday the government would require them to repay 30% of the grants in low-cost loans over 10 years -- with the first five years at 1% interest -- before the interest rate would rise. The government is also seeking warrants equal to 10% of the loan amount.\nU.S. airlines have idled more than 2,200 airplanes, a third of the fleet, canceled hundreds of thousands of flights and sought to shore up their balance sheets as travel demand has fallen by about 95% because of the coronavirus pandemic.\nAirlines, in calls with U.S. Treasury officials and the government's outside advisers, were making the case that Treasury should not require them to repay a big chunk of grants, in part because the $25 billion is not sufficient to cover the full amount of payroll costs submitted.\nAirlines for America, a trade group representing American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL), United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU), Alaska Airlines (NYSE: ALK) and others, said Saturday it believes the $25 billion in payroll assistance was \"to be only in grants – which is considerably more effective for our employees – and not a combination of grants and loans.\"\nUnder the terms laid out in the statute, companies receiving funds cannot lay off employees before Sept. 30 or change collective bargaining agreements. Mnuchin has authority to demand compensation for the grants but is not required to do   so.\nSara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants union, wrote on Twitter Saturday that if Treasury insists on airlines repaying $7 billion in grants, \"job cuts will happen now AND longer term cuts will come in October. This is absolutely stealing from the money Congress allocated directly to workers.\"\nCongress set aside another $25 billion in loans to passenger airlines, but no action on those is expected until Treasury makes decisions on the grants.\nSome airlines were seeking other changes in the terms including ensuring grant funds are paid as a lump sum rather than on a monthly basis.\nThe Treasury said Friday Mnuchin will not require passenger air carriers that will receive $100 million in assistance or less to provide compensation.\nReuters first reported the terms Mnuchin proposed to carriers.\nTreasury said Friday it is working with 12 larger passenger air carriers \"to secure appropriate financial instruments to compensate taxpayers.\"\nAirlines were told they could apply for the amount they paid in salaries and benefits in the second and third quarters of 2019. American Airlines, with the largest number of employees, had said it was seeking around $6 billion. \n (Reporting by David Shepardson and Tracy Rucinski; Editing by Leslie Adler)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928833082,"gmtCreate":1586603099846,"gmtModify":1704361754837,"author":{"id":"51471756433604","authorId":"51471756433604","name":"韭菜PIKA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8790a4e6a56229acc72938aca19079cc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"51471756433604","idStr":"51471756433604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$吉利德科学(GILD)$</a>在我看来，副作用大，死亡率降低一半，效果不明显。不过媒体和专业人士都说不错，那应该不错。如果股票涨说明市场认可。通过市场反映判断疗效[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$吉利德科学(GILD)$</a>在我看来，副作用大，死亡率降低一半，效果不明显。不过媒体和专业人士都说不错，那应该不错。如果股票涨说明市场认可。通过市场反映判断疗效[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$吉利德科学(GILD)$在我看来，副作用大，死亡率降低一半，效果不明显。不过媒体和专业人士都说不错，那应该不错。如果股票涨说明市场认可。通过市场反映判断疗效[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928833082","repostId":"2026266699","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2026266699","pubTimestamp":1586601691,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2026266699?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-11 18:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鹅知道｜瑞德西韦临床结果来了！效果超预期 改善重症患者作用明显","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2026266699","media":"腾讯科技＆知乎","summary":"（本文由知乎答主庄有猫撰文，腾讯科技整理，作者系知乎医学话题优秀回答者、日本北海道大学硕士、丁香医生签约作者）4月11日，吉利德在《新英格兰医学》杂志上发布了瑞德西韦（Remdesivir）治疗新冠肺","content":"<div>\n<p>（本文由知乎答主庄有猫撰文，腾讯科技整理，作者系知乎医学话题优秀回答者、日本北海道大学硕士、丁香医生签约作者）4月11日，吉利德在《新英格兰医学》杂志上发布了瑞德西韦（Remdesivir）治疗新冠肺炎（COVID-19）的首个临床研究结果。结果显示，在53名来自美国、欧洲、加拿大及日本的严重和危重新冠肺炎患者中，瑞德西韦给68%（36人）的患者带来临床改善。其中，57％（30/53）接受机械通气...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xw.qq.com/tech/20200411012101/TEC2020041101210100\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鹅知道｜瑞德西韦临床结果来了！效果超预期 改善重症患者作用明显</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鹅知道｜瑞德西韦临床结果来了！效果超预期 改善重症患者作用明显\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-11 18:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xw.qq.com/tech/20200411012101/TEC2020041101210100><strong>腾讯科技＆知乎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（本文由知乎答主庄有猫撰文，腾讯科技整理，作者系知乎医学话题优秀回答者、日本北海道大学硕士、丁香医生签约作者）4月11日，吉利德在《新英格兰医学》杂志上发布了瑞德西韦（Remdesivir）治疗新冠肺炎（COVID-19）的首个临床研究结果。结果显示，在53名来自美国、欧洲、加拿大及日本的严重和危重新冠肺炎患者中，瑞德西韦给68%（36人）的患者带来临床改善。其中，57％（30/53）接受机械通气...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xw.qq.com/tech/20200411012101/TEC2020041101210100\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_ls/0/11571250560_640330/0","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学"},"source_url":"https://xw.qq.com/tech/20200411012101/TEC2020041101210100","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2026266699","content_text":"（本文由知乎答主庄有猫撰文，腾讯科技整理，作者系知乎医学话题优秀回答者、日本北海道大学硕士、丁香医生签约作者）4月11日，吉利德在《新英格兰医学》杂志上发布了瑞德西韦（Remdesivir）治疗新冠肺炎（COVID-19）的首个临床研究结果。结果显示，在53名来自美国、欧洲、加拿大及日本的严重和危重新冠肺炎患者中，瑞德西韦给68%（36人）的患者带来临床改善。其中，57％（30/53）接受机械通气的患者中有17例已拔管。共有47％（25/53）的患者出院，13％（7/53）患者死亡；在接受有创通气的患者中，死亡率为18％（6/34），而未接受有创通气的患者为5％（1/19）。在安全性方面，总计32名患者（60%）出现副作用，最常见的是肝脏酶指标升高、腹泻、皮疹、肾功能障碍和高血压。总计12名（23%）患者出现严重副作用，其中包括多器官多器官功能障碍综合征、败血性休克、急性肾脏损伤和高血压。先把这个结果的几个重点给大家划出来：-这个公布的是「同情给药」的研究结果，患者都是重症患者，包括需要接受机械通气治疗或者已经上了ECMO的；-在最终收集到的数据中，68%的重症患者获得了临床改善，其中有创机械通气患者的病死率为18%；-总体来说，瑞德西韦可以有效改善重症患者的临床表现，降低机械通气患者的病死率；什么是同情给药？同情给药这是一种基于人道主义的用药方式。很多国家都已经有同情给药制度，标准没有太大差别。根据咱们的标准，同情给药的目标人群是患有危及生命（或者严重影响患者生活质量）的疾病、需早期干预、但是目前无有效治疗手段的疾病的患者。通常来说，一个药物在实验室里开发出来之后，必须经过漫长的临床试验结果才能上市。然而，有些患者病情较重无法入组，或者临床试验尚未获得所在国的批准，而这个时候这个药物可能是他最后的救命稻草。这时候医生会尽一切办法为患者寻找可能有效的药物，哪怕是冒着各种各样的风险，这就催生了“同情给药”制度。在美国，美国的药品审评研究中心每年平均收到1215份同情给药的申请，其中99.5%获批。同情给药，于患者而言是新的希望， 于医生而言是新的武器，然而对于药企本身来说，同情给药往往不是最佳选择。这是因为，接受同情给药的患者通常都是重症患者，病情千变万化，同情给药并不像随机对照双盲临床试验那样，有严格的入组标准来控制变量，因此同情给药的结果往往更加不可控，另外药企还可能面临潜在的法律风险。越年轻，用药效果越好说完同情给药，咱们回到论文本身。下图NEJM这项研究的患者来源，我根据文章的数据简单做了个图。这些新冠肺炎患者都是重症患者，来自美国、欧洲/加拿大和日本，患者的自然吸气氧饱和度低于94%，或者已经开始接受呼吸机治疗。最终除去无法分析8例的患者，在剩下的53位患者中，美国（22位）是最多的，其次是意大利（12位）和日本（9位）。在这53名患者中，有30名患者（57％）正在接受机械通气治疗，而4名（8％）正在接受ECMO治疗。这些患者的临床数据见下图。基线是患者们开始使用瑞德西韦治疗的日期。条状图从深红到浅黄，表示的是患者接收的氧气支持类型，颜色由深到浅分别是：ECMO、机械通气（通常指气管插管）、无创正压通气、高流量输氧、低流量输氧和环境空气（通常指正常呼吸）。一些朋友通过这次疫情知道了有ECMO这种设备，它的重要性可以看下这幅图——ECMO再上去就没有了。简单来说，颜色越深的氧气支持创伤越大，也说明患者情况越重。而左侧的蓝色圆形，表示患者治疗后的状态，分别是改善、不变和恶化；右侧标志，黑色正方形表示死亡，空心菱形表示出院，没标志的代表还在治疗当中。这些重症患者所接受的治疗方式是瑞德西韦静脉输注，治疗首日用的是200mg，次日及之后是100mg，整个疗程为10天。最终结果显示，在53位重症患者当中，有36位患者（68％）的氧气支持情况得到了改善。其中30位（57％）接受气管插管的患者中，有17位已经可以拔管了；而4位原先接受ECMO治疗的患者中，有3位已经脱离ECMO了。53位重症患者中，有25位（47%）已经出院。另外并非所有患者都能获得改善，在对这些重症患者进行同情给药后，7位（13%）患者死亡，尤其是那些在开始接受瑞德西韦治疗时已经进行有创通气（气管插管或ECMO）的患者，这些患者的病死率为18％（6位）。但是，瑞德西韦的同情给药，仍然在很大程度上降低了重症患者的病死率，尤其是已经接受了有创通气的患者。3月13日，金银潭医院在JAMA Intern Med（美国医学会杂志 · 内科学）上发表了一篇研究论文，公布了201名住院患者的治疗情况，这些患者的整体病死率为22%，其中接受有创通气的患者当中病死率更是高达66%。结合论文中的另外两张图，瑞德西韦对于没有接收有创通气的患者以及相对年轻（越年轻、症状越轻的患者，效果越明显。而除了疗效以外，研究人员也详细记录了在治疗过程中患者出现不良反应。总体来说，在治疗过程中，重症患者们主要出现的不良反应有转氨酶升高（23%）、腹泻（9%）、皮疹（8%）、肾功能受损（8%）和低血压（8%）等，像多器官衰竭、感染性休克、急性肾损伤和低血压等严重不良反应各有2名患者出现。具体可以看下面这张图。另外，在论文后面提出了这项研究目前存在的一些不足，例如规模小、随访时间短、由于项目性质而可能出现的遗漏数据、缺乏8名治疗患者的信息以及缺乏随机对照组等。由于是同情给药，患者处于不同的国家、不同的医院，他们所采取的其他治疗方式（如通气操作的变化和辅助药物）也可能有很大的不同。因此，最终的结果，还是要来自随机对照的临床试验。瑞德西韦可能会被考虑作为临床一线用药实际上，瑞德西韦在这次同情给药的效果比预想的更好。瑞德西韦本质上是一种核苷类似物，通过阻止病毒RNA复制而发挥作用。从原理上来说 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