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二五仔
09:23
昨日大盘短线缩量企稳,今日大盘看窄幅震荡预期,短线还是控制仓位为主,轻仓试错。 方向看抖音豆包概念、AI眼镜和半导体芯片。 个股关注:中光学、卓翼科技、星宸科技;视觉中国、粤传媒;瑞斯康达。
$中光学(002189)$
$卓翼科技(002369)$
$星宸科技(301536)$
二五仔
09:22
根据行业分析,AI PC未来将成为更多消费者的首选PC产品。Canalys预测,2024年AI PC的全球出货量将达到4400万台,2025年则有望达到1.03亿台,这就意味着明年市场上会多出来5600万台AI PC,以15%的市场份额粗略估算,联想的AI PC增量就有近千万台,这数字相当可观了。
$联想集团(00992)$
二五仔
11-28
$日出东方(603366)$
把握过度小周期节点
二五仔
11-28
昨天尾盘大盘给的惊喜,今天情绪依然
$汤姆猫(300459)$
二五仔
11-28
昨晚,戴尔和惠普因为业绩表现不佳股价同时暴跌,反观联想的业绩和盈利能力俱佳,上季度营收同比增长24%,净利润同比增长48%,最近半年还给股东派了每股8.5港仙,对股东利益的重视和对自身财务的信心都很高,近期就等着股价再涨涨,给股东再来一波红利
$联想集团(00992)$
二五仔
10-25
在AI发展的这个时机点,值得重估联想的价值锚点,冲破阻力位只是时间问题
$联想集团(00992)$
二五仔
10-08
短线调整之后的新生机会已经来临,还会持续拉升!!
$上海贝岭(600171)$
二五仔
09-19
$我爱我家(000560)$
现在能进不?
二五仔
09-19
$中国船舶(600150)$
对标当年的中国神车,出道即巅峰
二五仔
09-19
Gartner最近也发布了今年二季度全球个人电脑出货量数据,其中EMEA市场连续第三个季度增长,与去年同期相比增长了4.8%。联想和沙特Alat的战略投资上周刚刚通过股东大会投票,企业加速拓展MEA市场和这个区域增长趋势相互叠加的话,增长势头应该会相当不错吧。
$联想集团(00992)$
二五仔
09-16
$联想集团(00992)$
IDC上周发布了《2024第二季度中国x86服务器市场报告》,联想集团继续蝉联中国服务器市场前三,而且同比收入大增214.7%,是所有品牌中增幅最快的,联想集团已经连续两季度同比增幅超过2倍,继续在国内服务器市场第一阵营站稳脚跟。
二五仔
09-13
一些专家早就呼吁企业在设计AI软硬件时要考虑电力消耗,温水水冷降低散热和回收热量的设计确实很绿色[微笑]
@美市傻辉:
$联想集团(00992)$
前不久,国家推动数字化绿色化转型出了新动作。发改委、工信部等十部门联合印发了《数字化绿色化协同转型发展实施指南》,明确要推动绿色数据中心、绿色电子信息产品等关键领域的绿色发展,这将大力推动数据中心液冷的技术发展。这就不得不提一下联想首创的“温水水冷”散热方案,这项技术兼顾绿色、低能耗以及安全等特性,联想一季报的最新数据,海神液冷服务器收入同比大增55%,市场需求还将持续增长,未来成长可期。
二五仔
09-09
厉害,[微笑]
@Yonny:我开仓了
$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$
,定投加仓美债,这个时候需要加大仓位做确定性最强的方向。股债配比或许应该调整到4比6了
二五仔
09-09
能把。
@美股择菜谋士:8月非农疲弱,美国经济还能软着陆吗?
二五仔
09-09
那款Auto Twist AI PC概念机的自动旋转屏,拿捏住我了。
@聊城老鹅:
$联想集团(00992)$
联想在IFA期间推出前所未有的革命性AI PC产品,答案揭晓了,有全新设计的高端商务本,有扩展后的AI PC产品组合,全球首款旋转屏AI PC,还有AI PC Fast Start解决方案,从产品到方案,果然很亮眼!
二五仔
09-03
$高鸿股份(000851)$
这票已经走出独立行情了,景峰对它影响不大了,景峰炸板它可能会炸但影响不到上涨趋势了。这封单量!都超景峰了!还好及时接回来了不然拍断大腿。可惜之前被套住在宁科了,不然2元的时候我就得杀进来。锁仓!这票五倍潜力股,看到七元左右,有主板资金过来完全可以到的。如果奕斯伟来了就更完美了,直追景峰,十元不见不散!
二五仔
09-03
$卓翼科技(002369)$
希望明天卓翼能缩量二板而不是5块出货,就目前人气来看,不缺人接筹码。
二五仔
09-03
支持你
@尔维斯肌肤:
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
AMD是我在重仓PDD前的第一大重仓股。而且目前AMD我是打算一直拿着的,拿到30年收益肯定会相当不错
二五仔
09-03
把握长期增长机遇!
@忙碌人:
$联想集团(00992)$
海通证券近期报告分析认为,联想集团是一家全球化ICT公司,联想PC销量居世界前列,积极推动“设备+云”和“基础设施+云”发展,以及智能化解决方案落地。随着AI PC迭代及加速渗透,PC市场复苏,以及服务器上游GPU供应链问题缓解,公司有望开启新成长。
二五仔
08-27
$中复神鹰(688295)$
青海西宁基地产能全开,西部大开发下碳纤维销量激增80%中复神鹰在西部大开发战略的助推下,其位于青海西宁的生产基地已成为公司的销售重镇,贡献了超过80%的总销量。随着2.5万吨新增产能于今年5月全面投产,西宁基地不仅实现了规模扩张,更是在碳纤维供应紧张的市场环境中,占据了有利地位。产品广泛应用于氢能、光伏及风电等新能源领域,展现出强劲的市场需求。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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$星宸科技(301536)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383149200781424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383095209517480,"gmtCreate":1734571365198,"gmtModify":1734571367222,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"根据行业分析,AI PC未来将成为更多消费者的首选PC产品。Canalys预测,2024年AI PC的全球出货量将达到4400万台,2025年则有望达到1.03亿台,这就意味着明年市场上会多出来5600万台AI PC,以15%的市场份额粗略估算,联想的AI PC增量就有近千万台,这数字相当可观了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a>","listText":"根据行业分析,AI PC未来将成为更多消费者的首选PC产品。Canalys预测,2024年AI PC的全球出货量将达到4400万台,2025年则有望达到1.03亿台,这就意味着明年市场上会多出来5600万台AI 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$联想集团(00992)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383095209517480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4187763347957340","authorId":"4187763347957340","name":"小六和阿梨","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4187763347957340","idStr":"4187763347957340"},"content":"ai技术加持让PC产品越来越成熟,选择也越来越丰富,也很符合促消费的经济大趋势","text":"ai技术加持让PC产品越来越成熟,选择也越来越丰富,也很符合促消费的经济大趋势","html":"ai技术加持让PC产品越来越成熟,选择也越来越丰富,也很符合促消费的经济大趋势"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375718279983136,"gmtCreate":1732758996901,"gmtModify":1732758998099,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300459\">$汤姆猫(300459)$</a>","text":"昨天尾盘大盘给的惊喜,今天情绪依然 $汤姆猫(300459)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375717911642392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375717716230528,"gmtCreate":1732758942417,"gmtModify":1732758944413,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"昨晚,戴尔和惠普因为业绩表现不佳股价同时暴跌,反观联想的业绩和盈利能力俱佳,上季度营收同比增长24%,净利润同比增长48%,最近半年还给股东派了每股8.5港仙,对股东利益的重视和对自身财务的信心都很高,近期就等着股价再涨涨,给股东再来一波红利 <a 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尽管失业率略有下降,但最新的劳动力市场报告显示了一个更广泛的疲软趋势。8月份失业率从7月份的4.3%降至4.2%,但这一数字仍高于去年同期的3.8%。 图片 非农就业新增14.2万人,尽管相比于上次报告中的11.4万人有所改善,但远低于过去一年20.2万人的平均增幅。这些数据清楚地表明劳动力市场正在放缓,尤其是高薪制造业表现疲软。 经济增长放缓的可能性大幅度增加 图片 随着失业率连续四个月保持在4%或更高,2024年迄今为止的平均失业率为4%。根据美联储的预测,这一失业率与2024年第四季度2.1%的GDP增长率基本一致。然而,失业率的上升通常与GDP增速的下降相关。按照奥肯定律,如果失业率保持在4.2%,第四季度GDP增长可能会降至1.5%。因此,如果美联储不采取快速行动调整利率,经济放缓几乎不可避免。 此外,费城联邦储备银行的调查显示,专业预测人士预计2024年第三和第四季度的GDP增速分别为1.9%和1.7%,低于长期趋势水平,这与失业率上升的预期相符。 利率前景:降息在即 图片 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月18日会议上降息25个基点。更有趣的是,市场对11月和12月进一步降息25个基点的可能性分别赋予了50%和40%的概率。如果美联储在未来降息周期中采取更大幅度的降息(如50个基点),那么政策利率可能在2024年结束前下降多达1个百分点。当前的经济数据支持美联储谨慎行动,但一旦降息周期开始,将可能持续进行。 市场表现与投资机会 当前,劳动力市场疲软的消息导致主要股指普遍下跌,本周三大指数皆出现了较大幅度的下跌。然而,从长期投资的角度来看,劳动力市场的放缓并不一定是负面的。GDP增速的上调和降息周期的开启,表明经济可能不会受到过度影响,甚至为软着陆创造了条件。 图片 在这种背景下,周期性行业如能源、非必需消费品和基础材料可能从这一趋势中","listText":"8月非农疲弱,经济还能软着陆吗? 尽管失业率略有下降,但最新的劳动力市场报告显示了一个更广泛的疲软趋势。8月份失业率从7月份的4.3%降至4.2%,但这一数字仍高于去年同期的3.8%。 图片 非农就业新增14.2万人,尽管相比于上次报告中的11.4万人有所改善,但远低于过去一年20.2万人的平均增幅。这些数据清楚地表明劳动力市场正在放缓,尤其是高薪制造业表现疲软。 经济增长放缓的可能性大幅度增加 图片 随着失业率连续四个月保持在4%或更高,2024年迄今为止的平均失业率为4%。根据美联储的预测,这一失业率与2024年第四季度2.1%的GDP增长率基本一致。然而,失业率的上升通常与GDP增速的下降相关。按照奥肯定律,如果失业率保持在4.2%,第四季度GDP增长可能会降至1.5%。因此,如果美联储不采取快速行动调整利率,经济放缓几乎不可避免。 此外,费城联邦储备银行的调查显示,专业预测人士预计2024年第三和第四季度的GDP增速分别为1.9%和1.7%,低于长期趋势水平,这与失业率上升的预期相符。 利率前景:降息在即 图片 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月18日会议上降息25个基点。更有趣的是,市场对11月和12月进一步降息25个基点的可能性分别赋予了50%和40%的概率。如果美联储在未来降息周期中采取更大幅度的降息(如50个基点),那么政策利率可能在2024年结束前下降多达1个百分点。当前的经济数据支持美联储谨慎行动,但一旦降息周期开始,将可能持续进行。 市场表现与投资机会 当前,劳动力市场疲软的消息导致主要股指普遍下跌,本周三大指数皆出现了较大幅度的下跌。然而,从长期投资的角度来看,劳动力市场的放缓并不一定是负面的。GDP增速的上调和降息周期的开启,表明经济可能不会受到过度影响,甚至为软着陆创造了条件。 图片 在这种背景下,周期性行业如能源、非必需消费品和基础材料可能从这一趋势中","text":"8月非农疲弱,经济还能软着陆吗? 尽管失业率略有下降,但最新的劳动力市场报告显示了一个更广泛的疲软趋势。8月份失业率从7月份的4.3%降至4.2%,但这一数字仍高于去年同期的3.8%。 图片 非农就业新增14.2万人,尽管相比于上次报告中的11.4万人有所改善,但远低于过去一年20.2万人的平均增幅。这些数据清楚地表明劳动力市场正在放缓,尤其是高薪制造业表现疲软。 经济增长放缓的可能性大幅度增加 图片 随着失业率连续四个月保持在4%或更高,2024年迄今为止的平均失业率为4%。根据美联储的预测,这一失业率与2024年第四季度2.1%的GDP增长率基本一致。然而,失业率的上升通常与GDP增速的下降相关。按照奥肯定律,如果失业率保持在4.2%,第四季度GDP增长可能会降至1.5%。因此,如果美联储不采取快速行动调整利率,经济放缓几乎不可避免。 此外,费城联邦储备银行的调查显示,专业预测人士预计2024年第三和第四季度的GDP增速分别为1.9%和1.7%,低于长期趋势水平,这与失业率上升的预期相符。 利率前景:降息在即 图片 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月18日会议上降息25个基点。更有趣的是,市场对11月和12月进一步降息25个基点的可能性分别赋予了50%和40%的概率。如果美联储在未来降息周期中采取更大幅度的降息(如50个基点),那么政策利率可能在2024年结束前下降多达1个百分点。当前的经济数据支持美联储谨慎行动,但一旦降息周期开始,将可能持续进行。 市场表现与投资机会 当前,劳动力市场疲软的消息导致主要股指普遍下跌,本周三大指数皆出现了较大幅度的下跌。然而,从长期投资的角度来看,劳动力市场的放缓并不一定是负面的。GDP增速的上调和降息周期的开启,表明经济可能不会受到过度影响,甚至为软着陆创造了条件。 图片 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a> 海通证券近期报告分析认为,联想集团是一家全球化ICT公司,联想PC销量居世界前列,积极推动“设备+云”和“基础设施+云”发展,以及智能化解决方案落地。随着AI PC迭代及加速渗透,PC市场复苏,以及服务器上游GPU供应链问题缓解,公司有望开启新成长。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a> 海通证券近期报告分析认为,联想集团是一家全球化ICT公司,联想PC销量居世界前列,积极推动“设备+云”和“基础设施+云”发展,以及智能化解决方案落地。随着AI PC迭代及加速渗透,PC市场复苏,以及服务器上游GPU供应链问题缓解,公司有望开启新成长。","text":"$联想集团(00992)$ 海通证券近期报告分析认为,联想集团是一家全球化ICT公司,联想PC销量居世界前列,积极推动“设备+云”和“基础设施+云”发展,以及智能化解决方案落地。随着AI PC迭代及加速渗透,PC市场复苏,以及服务器上游GPU供应链问题缓解,公司有望开启新成长。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345300945887416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342956290056352,"gmtCreate":1724734879932,"gmtModify":1724736111629,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688295\">$中复神鹰(688295)$</a> 青海西宁基地产能全开,西部大开发下碳纤维销量激增80%中复神鹰在西部大开发战略的助推下,其位于青海西宁的生产基地已成为公司的销售重镇,贡献了超过80%的总销量。随着2.5万吨新增产能于今年5月全面投产,西宁基地不仅实现了规模扩张,更是在碳纤维供应紧张的市场环境中,占据了有利地位。产品广泛应用于氢能、光伏及风电等新能源领域,展现出强劲的市场需求。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688295\">$中复神鹰(688295)$</a> 青海西宁基地产能全开,西部大开发下碳纤维销量激增80%中复神鹰在西部大开发战略的助推下,其位于青海西宁的生产基地已成为公司的销售重镇,贡献了超过80%的总销量。随着2.5万吨新增产能于今年5月全面投产,西宁基地不仅实现了规模扩张,更是在碳纤维供应紧张的市场环境中,占据了有利地位。产品广泛应用于氢能、光伏及风电等新能源领域,展现出强劲的市场需求。","text":"$中复神鹰(688295)$ 青海西宁基地产能全开,西部大开发下碳纤维销量激增80%中复神鹰在西部大开发战略的助推下,其位于青海西宁的生产基地已成为公司的销售重镇,贡献了超过80%的总销量。随着2.5万吨新增产能于今年5月全面投产,西宁基地不仅实现了规模扩张,更是在碳纤维供应紧张的市场环境中,占据了有利地位。产品广泛应用于氢能、光伏及风电等新能源领域,展现出强劲的市场需求。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342956290056352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":383095209517480,"gmtCreate":1734571365198,"gmtModify":1734571367222,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"根据行业分析,AI PC未来将成为更多消费者的首选PC产品。Canalys预测,2024年AI PC的全球出货量将达到4400万台,2025年则有望达到1.03亿台,这就意味着明年市场上会多出来5600万台AI PC,以15%的市场份额粗略估算,联想的AI PC增量就有近千万台,这数字相当可观了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a>","listText":"根据行业分析,AI PC未来将成为更多消费者的首选PC产品。Canalys预测,2024年AI PC的全球出货量将达到4400万台,2025年则有望达到1.03亿台,这就意味着明年市场上会多出来5600万台AI PC,以15%的市场份额粗略估算,联想的AI PC增量就有近千万台,这数字相当可观了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a>","text":"根据行业分析,AI PC未来将成为更多消费者的首选PC产品。Canalys预测,2024年AI PC的全球出货量将达到4400万台,2025年则有望达到1.03亿台,这就意味着明年市场上会多出来5600万台AI PC,以15%的市场份额粗略估算,联想的AI PC增量就有近千万台,这数字相当可观了。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a> IDC上周发布了《2024第二季度中国x86服务器市场报告》,联想集团继续蝉联中国服务器市场前三,而且同比收入大增214.7%,是所有品牌中增幅最快的,联想集团已经连续两季度同比增幅超过2倍,继续在国内服务器市场第一阵营站稳脚跟。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a> IDC上周发布了《2024第二季度中国x86服务器市场报告》,联想集团继续蝉联中国服务器市场前三,而且同比收入大增214.7%,是所有品牌中增幅最快的,联想集团已经连续两季度同比增幅超过2倍,继续在国内服务器市场第一阵营站稳脚跟。","text":"$联想集团(00992)$ IDC上周发布了《2024第二季度中国x86服务器市场报告》,联想集团继续蝉联中国服务器市场前三,而且同比收入大增214.7%,是所有品牌中增幅最快的,联想集团已经连续两季度同比增幅超过2倍,继续在国内服务器市场第一阵营站稳脚跟。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349888199426312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4187762554955870","authorId":"4187762554955870","name":"我不是虎友","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5a0ddea07540cbc1ec103e02b5e268","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4187762554955870","idStr":"4187762554955870"},"content":"服务器和算力需求增长,相应的液冷技术也得配备上,联想这点做得不错.","text":"服务器和算力需求增长,相应的液冷技术也得配备上,联想这点做得不错.","html":"服务器和算力需求增长,相应的液冷技术也得配备上,联想这点做得不错."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342956527878424,"gmtCreate":1724734789351,"gmtModify":1724736151868,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000062\">$深圳华强(000062)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603626\">$科森科技(603626)$</a> 华强之后谁更强,我感觉是科森科技?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000062\">$深圳华强(000062)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603626\">$科森科技(603626)$</a> 华强之后谁更强,我感觉是科森科技?","text":"$深圳华强(000062)$ $科森科技(603626)$ 华强之后谁更强,我感觉是科森科技?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342956527878424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"content":"都没能把华强按死,换手率也不大,说明有一部分人还在里面格局","text":"都没能把华强按死,换手率也不大,说明有一部分人还在里面格局","html":"都没能把华强按死,换手率也不大,说明有一部分人还在里面格局"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375717716230528,"gmtCreate":1732758942417,"gmtModify":1732758944413,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"昨晚,戴尔和惠普因为业绩表现不佳股价同时暴跌,反观联想的业绩和盈利能力俱佳,上季度营收同比增长24%,净利润同比增长48%,最近半年还给股东派了每股8.5港仙,对股东利益的重视和对自身财务的信心都很高,近期就等着股价再涨涨,给股东再来一波红利 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a>","listText":"昨晚,戴尔和惠普因为业绩表现不佳股价同时暴跌,反观联想的业绩和盈利能力俱佳,上季度营收同比增长24%,净利润同比增长48%,最近半年还给股东派了每股8.5港仙,对股东利益的重视和对自身财务的信心都很高,近期就等着股价再涨涨,给股东再来一波红利 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$</a>","text":"昨晚,戴尔和惠普因为业绩表现不佳股价同时暴跌,反观联想的业绩和盈利能力俱佳,上季度营收同比增长24%,净利润同比增长48%,最近半年还给股东派了每股8.5港仙,对股东利益的重视和对自身财务的信心都很高,近期就等着股价再涨涨,给股东再来一波红利 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,定投加仓美债,这个时候需要加大仓位做确定性最强的方向。股债配比或许应该调整到4比6了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346699371065376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347413745500472,"gmtCreate":1725847219297,"gmtModify":1725847220949,"author":{"id":"4187762490955730","authorId":"4187762490955730","name":"二五仔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ef00e0ff48d8c6fd3178ba8206375f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187762490955730","idStr":"4187762490955730"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能把。","listText":"能把。","text":"能把。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347413745500472","repostId":"347405844758840","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":347405844758840,"gmtCreate":1725845290405,"gmtModify":1725847012078,"author":{"id":"4095039866373700","authorId":"4095039866373700","name":"美股择菜谋士","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404d5e88d79ae54e02ec5fc3f47dd71d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095039866373700","idStr":"4095039866373700"},"themes":[],"title":"8月非农疲弱,美国经济还能软着陆吗?","htmlText":"8月非农疲弱,经济还能软着陆吗? 尽管失业率略有下降,但最新的劳动力市场报告显示了一个更广泛的疲软趋势。8月份失业率从7月份的4.3%降至4.2%,但这一数字仍高于去年同期的3.8%。 图片 非农就业新增14.2万人,尽管相比于上次报告中的11.4万人有所改善,但远低于过去一年20.2万人的平均增幅。这些数据清楚地表明劳动力市场正在放缓,尤其是高薪制造业表现疲软。 经济增长放缓的可能性大幅度增加 图片 随着失业率连续四个月保持在4%或更高,2024年迄今为止的平均失业率为4%。根据美联储的预测,这一失业率与2024年第四季度2.1%的GDP增长率基本一致。然而,失业率的上升通常与GDP增速的下降相关。按照奥肯定律,如果失业率保持在4.2%,第四季度GDP增长可能会降至1.5%。因此,如果美联储不采取快速行动调整利率,经济放缓几乎不可避免。 此外,费城联邦储备银行的调查显示,专业预测人士预计2024年第三和第四季度的GDP增速分别为1.9%和1.7%,低于长期趋势水平,这与失业率上升的预期相符。 利率前景:降息在即 图片 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月18日会议上降息25个基点。更有趣的是,市场对11月和12月进一步降息25个基点的可能性分别赋予了50%和40%的概率。如果美联储在未来降息周期中采取更大幅度的降息(如50个基点),那么政策利率可能在2024年结束前下降多达1个百分点。当前的经济数据支持美联储谨慎行动,但一旦降息周期开始,将可能持续进行。 市场表现与投资机会 当前,劳动力市场疲软的消息导致主要股指普遍下跌,本周三大指数皆出现了较大幅度的下跌。然而,从长期投资的角度来看,劳动力市场的放缓并不一定是负面的。GDP增速的上调和降息周期的开启,表明经济可能不会受到过度影响,甚至为软着陆创造了条件。 图片 在这种背景下,周期性行业如能源、非必需消费品和基础材料可能从这一趋势中","listText":"8月非农疲弱,经济还能软着陆吗? 尽管失业率略有下降,但最新的劳动力市场报告显示了一个更广泛的疲软趋势。8月份失业率从7月份的4.3%降至4.2%,但这一数字仍高于去年同期的3.8%。 图片 非农就业新增14.2万人,尽管相比于上次报告中的11.4万人有所改善,但远低于过去一年20.2万人的平均增幅。这些数据清楚地表明劳动力市场正在放缓,尤其是高薪制造业表现疲软。 经济增长放缓的可能性大幅度增加 图片 随着失业率连续四个月保持在4%或更高,2024年迄今为止的平均失业率为4%。根据美联储的预测,这一失业率与2024年第四季度2.1%的GDP增长率基本一致。然而,失业率的上升通常与GDP增速的下降相关。按照奥肯定律,如果失业率保持在4.2%,第四季度GDP增长可能会降至1.5%。因此,如果美联储不采取快速行动调整利率,经济放缓几乎不可避免。 此外,费城联邦储备银行的调查显示,专业预测人士预计2024年第三和第四季度的GDP增速分别为1.9%和1.7%,低于长期趋势水平,这与失业率上升的预期相符。 利率前景:降息在即 图片 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月18日会议上降息25个基点。更有趣的是,市场对11月和12月进一步降息25个基点的可能性分别赋予了50%和40%的概率。如果美联储在未来降息周期中采取更大幅度的降息(如50个基点),那么政策利率可能在2024年结束前下降多达1个百分点。当前的经济数据支持美联储谨慎行动,但一旦降息周期开始,将可能持续进行。 市场表现与投资机会 当前,劳动力市场疲软的消息导致主要股指普遍下跌,本周三大指数皆出现了较大幅度的下跌。然而,从长期投资的角度来看,劳动力市场的放缓并不一定是负面的。GDP增速的上调和降息周期的开启,表明经济可能不会受到过度影响,甚至为软着陆创造了条件。 图片 在这种背景下,周期性行业如能源、非必需消费品和基础材料可能从这一趋势中","text":"8月非农疲弱,经济还能软着陆吗? 尽管失业率略有下降,但最新的劳动力市场报告显示了一个更广泛的疲软趋势。8月份失业率从7月份的4.3%降至4.2%,但这一数字仍高于去年同期的3.8%。 图片 非农就业新增14.2万人,尽管相比于上次报告中的11.4万人有所改善,但远低于过去一年20.2万人的平均增幅。这些数据清楚地表明劳动力市场正在放缓,尤其是高薪制造业表现疲软。 经济增长放缓的可能性大幅度增加 图片 随着失业率连续四个月保持在4%或更高,2024年迄今为止的平均失业率为4%。根据美联储的预测,这一失业率与2024年第四季度2.1%的GDP增长率基本一致。然而,失业率的上升通常与GDP增速的下降相关。按照奥肯定律,如果失业率保持在4.2%,第四季度GDP增长可能会降至1.5%。因此,如果美联储不采取快速行动调整利率,经济放缓几乎不可避免。 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