耳东田木的个人主页 - 老虎社区

耳东田木

耳东田木

收手吧，阿祖，外面全是成龙！

IP属地：重庆

63关注

7粉丝

4主题

0勋章

08-01

预测蛮准的[财迷]

@拓拔野:$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今晚的资金差额会扩大到 12 亿左右，预计最高涨幅在 13.5-14% 之间

07-17

大跌！大跌眼镜！

07-11

$台积电(TSM)$ 又一个高开低走，又一个重复剧本！

07-10

$台积电(TSM)$ 最近一段时间，几乎都是在高开低走，为何？？？

07-08

$台积电(TSM)$ 今晚190问题不大了，看好到财报后，行情来了！

07-04

$台积电(TSM)$ 台积电的走势稳得一批，2季度的财报公布后，能否上200？

06-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 二季度的财报预计什么发呢[得意]

06-13

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今晚130，稳！

06-11

$中远海控(01919)$ 几个意思？

06-07

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这么趋势拆后短期肯定波动，但长期肯定盈利！红利吃到明年。

06-05

哈哈哈，太形象了

05-28

$台积电(TSM)$ 英伟达在猛冲，为什么你还在缓降？？？？

05-23

这次真的是猪都飞起来了

05-16

特斯拉转型，还有很长远的时间吧，今年短期不看好，长期看好，裁员的残酷以及对公司的影响，只有经历的人才懂

03-07

一句话理解：英伟达增长带动台积电增长，反之亦然。

抱歉，原内容已删除

02-09

$TSM(TSM)$ 台积电对比英伟达上涨的逻辑我看很多分析，英伟达现在的股价要接近拐点，跟风的风险很大，台积电本来股价就很低，虽然同样是芯片，但是上涨的逻辑不同，有没有大神预测一下今年台积电预计上涨到什么位置？

2023-01-03

实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 机构在故意搞马大嘴？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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台积电的走势稳得一批，2季度的财报公布后，能否上200？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323594204807352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321397507469320,"gmtCreate":1719496360622,"gmtModify":1719496361911,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; 二季度的财报预计什么发呢[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; 二季度的财报预计什么发呢[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。</p><p>图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85bb2997009c51b32774c71e02972bcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p><strong>要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。</strong></p><p>为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。</p><p>这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。</p><p>需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584c4313a46deab7e79bcc4cd3b99f77\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。</p><p>图3显示台积电和AMD的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02f7885875f66ee91986d297ff18c89\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。</p><p>AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。</p><p>显然，<strong>尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。</strong></p><p>Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0920a879616a0af67000eb55e74d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。</p><p>重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。</p><p>总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd8c00b45c00ec711e5e8e7257dba97\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58612281ee0c5cd71b89bd52d7ffee7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p>2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。</p><p>重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0da8434c7b95d44fe20c3c6bd195400\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bfb985aeb21ba721883d2b7e6e058a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97e038c1b87d8260f98b89b714bb03\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。</p><p>这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（&gt;20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。</p><p>作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。</p><p>领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。</p><p>首席执行官CC Wei指出：</p><blockquote><p>“N3成功进入量产，并在2023年下半年实现强劲增长，占2023年晶圆总收入的6%。</p><p>N3E已于2023年第四季度投入量产。</p><p>N2技术开发进展顺利，有望在2025年实现量产。”</p></blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。如果没有制造芯片的公司，英伟达和AMD将不会处于现在的地位，这是英伟达出色的第二季度至第四季度指引的催化剂。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-06 22:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。</p><p><strong>由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。</strong>整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。</p><p>2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。</p><p>图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85bb2997009c51b32774c71e02972bcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p><strong>要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。</strong></p><p>为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。</p><p>这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。</p><p>需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584c4313a46deab7e79bcc4cd3b99f77\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。</p><p>图3显示台积电和AMD的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02f7885875f66ee91986d297ff18c89\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。</p><p>AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。</p><p>显然，<strong>尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。</strong></p><p>Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0920a879616a0af67000eb55e74d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。</p><p>重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。</p><p>总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd8c00b45c00ec711e5e8e7257dba97\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58612281ee0c5cd71b89bd52d7ffee7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p>2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。</p><p>重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0da8434c7b95d44fe20c3c6bd195400\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bfb985aeb21ba721883d2b7e6e058a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97e038c1b87d8260f98b89b714bb03\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。</p><p>这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（&gt;20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。</p><p>作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。</p><p>领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。</p><p>首席执行官CC Wei指出：</p><blockquote><p>“N3成功进入量产，并在2023年下半年实现强劲增长，占2023年晶圆总收入的6%。</p><p>N3E已于2023年第四季度投入量产。</p><p>N2技术开发进展顺利，有望在2025年实现量产。”</p></blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。如果没有制造芯片的公司，英伟达和AMD将不会处于现在的地位，这是英伟达出色的第二季度至第四季度指引的催化剂。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164116bacf75498de0f6a675a0ea698","relate_stocks":{"LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM 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INC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202403062019588b0dcb12&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2417267830","content_text":"台积电被低估了。台积电是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和英伟达等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和英伟达是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，美光科技和三星电子有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。图3显示台积电和AMD的趋势线（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致趋势线（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。显然，尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（>20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。首席执行官CC 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几个意思？","text":"$中远海控(01919)$ 几个意思？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315630484787424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313571452702968,"gmtCreate":1717593920307,"gmtModify":1717593922325,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈， 太形象了","listText":"哈哈哈， 太形象了","text":"哈哈哈， 太形象了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313571452702968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308947503042864,"gmtCreate":1716454463292,"gmtModify":1716454560525,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这次真的是猪都飞起来了","listText":"这次真的是猪都飞起来了","text":"这次真的是猪都飞起来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308947503042864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306377242972336,"gmtCreate":1715833792950,"gmtModify":1715833795161,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉转型，还有很长远的时间吧，今年短期不看好，长期看好，裁员的残酷以及对公司的影响，只有经历的人才懂","listText":"特斯拉转型，还有很长远的时间吧，今年短期不看好，长期看好，裁员的残酷以及对公司的影响，只有经历的人才懂","text":"特斯拉转型，还有很长远的时间吧，今年短期不看好，长期看好，裁员的残酷以及对公司的影响，只有经历的人才懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306377242972336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628063768,"gmtCreate":1672759419354,"gmtModify":1672759958316,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了","listText":"实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了","text":"实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628063768","repostId":"1155044358","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155044358","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672754855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155044358?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-03 22:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"老虎锐评 | 3大指标暗示港股仍具向上空间；特斯拉恐慌性抛售会否再现？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155044358","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"先说港股其实上周就想写，因为恒生指数迟迟没有突破20,000点，一定会有人耐心不足，认为“久涨不下就要崩盘”。但是还没来得及写，恒生指数昨晚就从2%变成涨2%，一举突破20,000点，拿下开门红。拿下","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b><u>先说港股</u></b></p><p>其实上周就想写，因为恒生指数迟迟没有突破20,000点，一定会有人耐心不足，认为“久涨不下就要崩盘”。但是还没来得及写，恒生指数昨晚就从2%变成涨2%，一举突破20,000点，拿下开门红。拿下开门红这件事，除了在中国传统的文化上有点象征意义外，对于投资并没有什么前瞻意义，不是说有了开门红就一定一年都会好。</p><p>根据统计，过去10年，有3年（不算今年）恒生指数首日涨幅超过1%，但是随后一个月的涨跌幅不一定。2018年涨了1个月，但是2020年1月的后半月却急转直下（新冠）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d44df74cd932498b03b17fadb0eede\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>人都愿意在市场大涨之后继续看涨，大跌之后继续看跌，这是天性。但是投资其实是一个每天都需要平常心对待的工作，大涨之后更应该审视市场是否过于愉悦，有掉头的风险。上涨趋势中继续看涨，心理压力一点也不小。从3个指标来看，目前港股仍然具有向上空间。</p><p>1，人民币的趋势。港股从11月初开始转向，人民币也从11月初开始转向。CNH已从7.3涨到了6.9，这一波人民币升值应该是超乎了绝大部分人的预期。下图是蓝线是人民币，白线是恒生指数，两者的趋势完全一致。所以我一直强调，要想判断港股趋势判断人民币趋势就行。<b>留一个问题，人民币会持续看涨吗？</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b4b7ffac43d76257fb744a430fdc56\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2，外资并没有完全进入。CNH是一个非常敏感的市场，人民币升值并非说明外资进入，而只能说明沪港通进入的资金多。要看外资是否进入，还是需要看美港两地上市股票的价格差。下表是12月以来，两地上市股票的价格差，绝大部分时候美股收盘价都低于港股，这证明外资还没有进入。下表什么时候开始变绿了，就证明外资开始进入了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a0c359a3e50accf8f404fc12b9f9fa\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>外资为什么面对反弹37%的港股迟迟不愿意入场呢？除了之前被伤害的太深以外，还有一个原因是美国的媒体铺天盖地的负面宣传，这段时间又在喊疫情失控。当初Tiger Global宣布离开中国市场可以认为是港股触底，那么Tiger Global某天宣布重回中国市场可以认为是外资正式进入中国的序幕打开。</p><p>3，中资券商还没有喊买。恒生指数从最低点到今天收盘已经反弹了37%，为何没有见到任何一家中资券商喊买？这和市场往年那种券商一起躁动喊买，券商股先涨的“阶段牛市”不一样。也正是因为这个原因，A股在这波反弹中远远落后于港股，下图是白线是恒生指数（反弹37%），蓝线是沪深300（反弹10%）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5d3dcf089e125d643f530f444442bb\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为什么中资券商迟迟不喊买，我猜测有两个原因：（1）现在的经济状况不乐观，特别是群体免疫还在形成的过程中，各种问题很多；（2）还没有统一的指导思想。但这些问题都不大，2020年美国3月大跌之后，经济局面也是乱七八糟，但这丝毫不影响市场反弹。等到3月份两会召开，统一思想会形成，中资券商基本会在那个时候开喊。</p><p>从这3个指标来看，现在的港股市场并没有太多的“过度兴奋”，还是比较安全。</p><p><b><u>再说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></u></b></p><p>特斯拉昨天公布了4Q数据，市场参与者都非常关注。不好的是交付不及预期，甚至低于了华尔街最低预期，好的是特斯拉全年交付量同比依旧+40%，而且几个关键数据都在“线上”——比方交付数是40万+，而不是39万+（4和3的区别），全年交付量是1.3m而不是1.29m（3和2的区别）。</p><p>特斯拉盘前现在跌4%，盘后怎么走没人知道，但是我的一个感觉是多头和空头此刻都在观望，因为这个数据真的没法说还有恐慌性抛售的必要，特别是在现在这个价位上。</p><p>1，分析师的反应。昨天4Q数据出来之后，有很多分析师都下调了目标价格，但也有提高的，比方说GS从235-&gt;205，Citi反而上调了141-&gt;176，JP从150-&gt;125<b>分析师们向来是看着股价，借着新闻数据，把目标价和当前股价“调整”靠近。但特斯拉股价在120，交付不如预期，分析师们都没法把股价调到120附近，这证明特斯拉的基本面肯定是好于120。</b>JP的态度最说明问题，JP向来是最恨特斯拉的，连JP都认为特斯拉至少值125。</p><p>2，马斯克的经济状况在好转。马斯克的所有公司，特斯拉、推特、SpaceX…都是高度绑定。最近关于SpaceX融资的新闻非常频繁，昨天又融资了$1.75亿。在12月中的时候，彭博爆出了这么一个新闻“Elon Musk’s SpaceX is offering to sell insider shares at a price that would raise the closely held company’s valuation to about $140”。SpaceX只有一个insider，那就是马斯克自己。所以马斯克最近一定在通过SpaceX把股票换现金，来拯救他的推特，进而缓解他的margin call问题。</p><p>3，目前特斯拉还是一个增长率提高的公司（一阶导数还在增加），即使有一天增长率放缓了，那么股价就不上涨了吗？目前华尔街当前的预期也是很离谱，一阶导数还在增加的公司都不满意。苹果公司早就进入了个位数增长率，一阶导数早就不增加了，但股价依然能够持续上涨。不过特斯拉股价经过这次大幅回撤，散户们肯定被伤到了，要想回到2020-2021年那种状态非常困难，除非别的想象空间能够打开（自动驾驶，皮卡）。</p><p>现在特斯拉的基本面对得住这个股价，我不觉得空头还有很大的空间。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎锐评 | 3大指标暗示港股仍具向上空间；特斯拉恐慌性抛售会否再现？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎锐评 | 3大指标暗示港股仍具向上空间；特斯拉恐慌性抛售会否再现？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-03 22:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b><u>先说港股</u></b></p><p>其实上周就想写，因为恒生指数迟迟没有突破20,000点，一定会有人耐心不足，认为“久涨不下就要崩盘”。但是还没来得及写，恒生指数昨晚就从2%变成涨2%，一举突破20,000点，拿下开门红。拿下开门红这件事，除了在中国传统的文化上有点象征意义外，对于投资并没有什么前瞻意义，不是说有了开门红就一定一年都会好。</p><p>根据统计，过去10年，有3年（不算今年）恒生指数首日涨幅超过1%，但是随后一个月的涨跌幅不一定。2018年涨了1个月，但是2020年1月的后半月却急转直下（新冠）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d44df74cd932498b03b17fadb0eede\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>人都愿意在市场大涨之后继续看涨，大跌之后继续看跌，这是天性。但是投资其实是一个每天都需要平常心对待的工作，大涨之后更应该审视市场是否过于愉悦，有掉头的风险。上涨趋势中继续看涨，心理压力一点也不小。从3个指标来看，目前港股仍然具有向上空间。</p><p>1，人民币的趋势。港股从11月初开始转向，人民币也从11月初开始转向。CNH已从7.3涨到了6.9，这一波人民币升值应该是超乎了绝大部分人的预期。下图是蓝线是人民币，白线是恒生指数，两者的趋势完全一致。所以我一直强调，要想判断港股趋势判断人民币趋势就行。<b>留一个问题，人民币会持续看涨吗？</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b4b7ffac43d76257fb744a430fdc56\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2，外资并没有完全进入。CNH是一个非常敏感的市场，人民币升值并非说明外资进入，而只能说明沪港通进入的资金多。要看外资是否进入，还是需要看美港两地上市股票的价格差。下表是12月以来，两地上市股票的价格差，绝大部分时候美股收盘价都低于港股，这证明外资还没有进入。下表什么时候开始变绿了，就证明外资开始进入了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a0c359a3e50accf8f404fc12b9f9fa\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>外资为什么面对反弹37%的港股迟迟不愿意入场呢？除了之前被伤害的太深以外，还有一个原因是美国的媒体铺天盖地的负面宣传，这段时间又在喊疫情失控。当初Tiger Global宣布离开中国市场可以认为是港股触底，那么Tiger Global某天宣布重回中国市场可以认为是外资正式进入中国的序幕打开。</p><p>3，中资券商还没有喊买。恒生指数从最低点到今天收盘已经反弹了37%，为何没有见到任何一家中资券商喊买？这和市场往年那种券商一起躁动喊买，券商股先涨的“阶段牛市”不一样。也正是因为这个原因，A股在这波反弹中远远落后于港股，下图是白线是恒生指数（反弹37%），蓝线是沪深300（反弹10%）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5d3dcf089e125d643f530f444442bb\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为什么中资券商迟迟不喊买，我猜测有两个原因：（1）现在的经济状况不乐观，特别是群体免疫还在形成的过程中，各种问题很多；（2）还没有统一的指导思想。但这些问题都不大，2020年美国3月大跌之后，经济局面也是乱七八糟，但这丝毫不影响市场反弹。等到3月份两会召开，统一思想会形成，中资券商基本会在那个时候开喊。</p><p>从这3个指标来看，现在的港股市场并没有太多的“过度兴奋”，还是比较安全。</p><p><b><u>再说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></u></b></p><p>特斯拉昨天公布了4Q数据，市场参与者都非常关注。不好的是交付不及预期，甚至低于了华尔街最低预期，好的是特斯拉全年交付量同比依旧+40%，而且几个关键数据都在“线上”——比方交付数是40万+，而不是39万+（4和3的区别），全年交付量是1.3m而不是1.29m（3和2的区别）。</p><p>特斯拉盘前现在跌4%，盘后怎么走没人知道，但是我的一个感觉是多头和空头此刻都在观望，因为这个数据真的没法说还有恐慌性抛售的必要，特别是在现在这个价位上。</p><p>1，分析师的反应。昨天4Q数据出来之后，有很多分析师都下调了目标价格，但也有提高的，比方说GS从235-&gt;205，Citi反而上调了141-&gt;176，JP从150-&gt;125<b>分析师们向来是看着股价，借着新闻数据，把目标价和当前股价“调整”靠近。但特斯拉股价在120，交付不如预期，分析师们都没法把股价调到120附近，这证明特斯拉的基本面肯定是好于120。</b>JP的态度最说明问题，JP向来是最恨特斯拉的，连JP都认为特斯拉至少值125。</p><p>2，马斯克的经济状况在好转。马斯克的所有公司，特斯拉、推特、SpaceX…都是高度绑定。最近关于SpaceX融资的新闻非常频繁，昨天又融资了$1.75亿。在12月中的时候，彭博爆出了这么一个新闻“Elon Musk’s SpaceX is offering to sell insider shares at a price that would raise the closely held company’s valuation to about $140”。SpaceX只有一个insider，那就是马斯克自己。所以马斯克最近一定在通过SpaceX把股票换现金，来拯救他的推特，进而缓解他的margin call问题。</p><p>3，目前特斯拉还是一个增长率提高的公司（一阶导数还在增加），即使有一天增长率放缓了，那么股价就不上涨了吗？目前华尔街当前的预期也是很离谱，一阶导数还在增加的公司都不满意。苹果公司早就进入了个位数增长率，一阶导数早就不增加了，但股价依然能够持续上涨。不过特斯拉股价经过这次大幅回撤，散户们肯定被伤到了，要想回到2020-2021年那种状态非常困难，除非别的想象空间能够打开（自动驾驶，皮卡）。</p><p>现在特斯拉的基本面对得住这个股价，我不觉得空头还有很大的空间。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155044358","content_text":"先说港股其实上周就想写，因为恒生指数迟迟没有突破20,000点，一定会有人耐心不足，认为“久涨不下就要崩盘”。但是还没来得及写，恒生指数昨晚就从2%变成涨2%，一举突破20,000点，拿下开门红。拿下开门红这件事，除了在中国传统的文化上有点象征意义外，对于投资并没有什么前瞻意义，不是说有了开门红就一定一年都会好。根据统计，过去10年，有3年（不算今年）恒生指数首日涨幅超过1%，但是随后一个月的涨跌幅不一定。2018年涨了1个月，但是2020年1月的后半月却急转直下（新冠）。人都愿意在市场大涨之后继续看涨，大跌之后继续看跌，这是天性。但是投资其实是一个每天都需要平常心对待的工作，大涨之后更应该审视市场是否过于愉悦，有掉头的风险。上涨趋势中继续看涨，心理压力一点也不小。从3个指标来看，目前港股仍然具有向上空间。1，人民币的趋势。港股从11月初开始转向，人民币也从11月初开始转向。CNH已从7.3涨到了6.9，这一波人民币升值应该是超乎了绝大部分人的预期。下图是蓝线是人民币，白线是恒生指数，两者的趋势完全一致。所以我一直强调，要想判断港股趋势判断人民币趋势就行。留一个问题，人民币会持续看涨吗？2，外资并没有完全进入。CNH是一个非常敏感的市场，人民币升值并非说明外资进入，而只能说明沪港通进入的资金多。要看外资是否进入，还是需要看美港两地上市股票的价格差。下表是12月以来，两地上市股票的价格差，绝大部分时候美股收盘价都低于港股，这证明外资还没有进入。下表什么时候开始变绿了，就证明外资开始进入了。外资为什么面对反弹37%的港股迟迟不愿意入场呢？除了之前被伤害的太深以外，还有一个原因是美国的媒体铺天盖地的负面宣传，这段时间又在喊疫情失控。当初Tiger Global宣布离开中国市场可以认为是港股触底，那么Tiger Global某天宣布重回中国市场可以认为是外资正式进入中国的序幕打开。3，中资券商还没有喊买。恒生指数从最低点到今天收盘已经反弹了37%，为何没有见到任何一家中资券商喊买？这和市场往年那种券商一起躁动喊买，券商股先涨的“阶段牛市”不一样。也正是因为这个原因，A股在这波反弹中远远落后于港股，下图是白线是恒生指数（反弹37%），蓝线是沪深300（反弹10%）。为什么中资券商迟迟不喊买，我猜测有两个原因：（1）现在的经济状况不乐观，特别是群体免疫还在形成的过程中，各种问题很多；（2）还没有统一的指导思想。但这些问题都不大，2020年美国3月大跌之后，经济局面也是乱七八糟，但这丝毫不影响市场反弹。等到3月份两会召开，统一思想会形成，中资券商基本会在那个时候开喊。从这3个指标来看，现在的港股市场并没有太多的“过度兴奋”，还是比较安全。再说特斯拉特斯拉昨天公布了4Q数据，市场参与者都非常关注。不好的是交付不及预期，甚至低于了华尔街最低预期，好的是特斯拉全年交付量同比依旧+40%，而且几个关键数据都在“线上”——比方交付数是40万+，而不是39万+（4和3的区别），全年交付量是1.3m而不是1.29m（3和2的区别）。特斯拉盘前现在跌4%，盘后怎么走没人知道，但是我的一个感觉是多头和空头此刻都在观望，因为这个数据真的没法说还有恐慌性抛售的必要，特别是在现在这个价位上。1，分析师的反应。昨天4Q数据出来之后，有很多分析师都下调了目标价格，但也有提高的，比方说GS从235->205，Citi反而上调了141->176，JP从150->125分析师们向来是看着股价，借着新闻数据，把目标价和当前股价“调整”靠近。但特斯拉股价在120，交付不如预期，分析师们都没法把股价调到120附近，这证明特斯拉的基本面肯定是好于120。JP的态度最说明问题，JP向来是最恨特斯拉的，连JP都认为特斯拉至少值125。2，马斯克的经济状况在好转。马斯克的所有公司，特斯拉、推特、SpaceX…都是高度绑定。最近关于SpaceX融资的新闻非常频繁，昨天又融资了$1.75亿。在12月中的时候，彭博爆出了这么一个新闻“Elon Musk’s SpaceX is offering to sell insider shares at a price that would raise the closely held company’s valuation to about $140”。SpaceX只有一个insider，那就是马斯克自己。所以马斯克最近一定在通过SpaceX把股票换现金，来拯救他的推特，进而缓解他的margin call问题。3，目前特斯拉还是一个增长率提高的公司（一阶导数还在增加），即使有一天增长率放缓了，那么股价就不上涨了吗？目前华尔街当前的预期也是很离谱，一阶导数还在增加的公司都不满意。苹果公司早就进入了个位数增长率，一阶导数早就不增加了，但股价依然能够持续上涨。不过特斯拉股价经过这次大幅回撤，散户们肯定被伤到了，要想回到2020-2021年那种状态非常困难，除非别的想象空间能够打开（自动驾驶，皮卡）。现在特斯拉的基本面对得住这个股价，我不觉得空头还有很大的空间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623390769,"gmtCreate":1671029427351,"gmtModify":1671030274975,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>机构在故意搞马大嘴？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>机构在故意搞马大嘴？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 机构在故意搞马大嘴？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623390769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}