KaiCheung的个人主页 - 老虎社区

KaiCheung

KaiCheung

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IP属地：广东

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2023-11-28

$拼多多(PDD)$ 拼多多和新东方无疑是2023的中概之光，经济下行叠加失业率上升等因素，多多占据天时地利人和，海外Temu也开始跑通，唯一担忧的是Temu 是否会遇上政治因素的干扰！！！今年最后悔的操作就是一直在等多多回调，结果越等越高

2022-08-19

$大健云仓(GCT)$大哥可不可长线持有

2023-09-19

$Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.)(CART)$

2023-09-15

$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ 小赚一波，等$Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.)(CART)$ 上市，继续炒一波

2022-08-20

$大健云仓(GCT)$差不多可以跑了

2022-08-19

$大健云仓(GCT)$年轻人的第一次+100%

11-09

$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 杀疯了，川普入主白宫后预计可以为老马的Space X带来更多国防订单投资了Space X的资产管理公司预计到上任后有不错的收益

10-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@Tsar:在降息与大选双周期，如何灵活配置资产

2023-12-31

展望2024下

2023-11-15

$新东方(EDU)$ 可不可以跌一跌让我加加仓 [财迷]

@小虎活动:【晒单有奖】中概大反弹，老乡快醒醒，行情回来了！

2023-11-15

$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$ 给点阳光真的很灿烂

@小虎活动:【晒单有奖】中概大反弹，老乡快醒醒，行情回来了！

2022-08-18

快了😭😭😭

@Mr. Popcorn:$大健云仓(GCT)$我就不信这股还能破发？[惊讶] 这么点流通这么大的量

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Ratio）。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场，这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时，我倾向于反其道而行之，做多另一个方向，不断在新的信息到来后以此往复，直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升，但等到9月总统辩论前，特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置；总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨，而到9月底为止，两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键，尤其是11月，这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%，符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期，这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","text":"最近一周，A股表现相当抢眼，而我也通过常用的波动策略，以天为单位平衡期权持仓，在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹，并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福，账户收益率创了新高。相比之下，美股大盘变动不大，高位震荡，但在降息与大选双周期中，未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点，前一周市场预期分歧非常大，直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风，本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天，50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点，历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动，因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念，不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲，以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点，而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明，美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策，如果就用这个指标进行回测，或许会有相当不错的夏普值（Sharpe 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Ratio）。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场，这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时，我倾向于反其道而行之，做多另一个方向，不断在新的信息到来后以此往复，直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升，但等到9月总统辩论前，特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置；总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨，而到9月底为止，两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键，尤其是11月，这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%，符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期，这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","listText":"最近一周，A股表现相当抢眼，而我也通过常用的波动策略，以天为单位平衡期权持仓，在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹，并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福，账户收益率创了新高。相比之下，美股大盘变动不大，高位震荡，但在降息与大选双周期中，未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点，前一周市场预期分歧非常大，直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风，本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天，50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点，历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动，因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念，不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲，以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点，而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明，美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策，如果就用这个指标进行回测，或许会有相当不错的夏普值（Sharpe 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Ratio）。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场，这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时，我倾向于反其道而行之，做多另一个方向，不断在新的信息到来后以此往复，直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升，但等到9月总统辩论前，特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置；总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨，而到9月底为止，两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键，尤其是11月，这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%，符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期，这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355912681791920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":257967210393832,"gmtCreate":1704013773069,"gmtModify":1704021301966,"author":{"id":"4115692000171630","authorId":"4115692000171630","name":"KaiCheung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b530100a1cc4bf101033e8544e43686","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115692000171630","authorIdStr":"4115692000171630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"展望2024下","listText":"展望2024下","text":"展望2024下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f1ef926318480fa8f54d79f7560e45","width":"1082","height":"2134"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257967210393832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":241733182284000,"gmtCreate":1700053116406,"gmtModify":1700053118681,"author":{"id":"4115692000171630","authorId":"4115692000171630","name":"KaiCheung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b530100a1cc4bf101033e8544e43686","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115692000171630","authorIdStr":"4115692000171630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\"> $新东方(EDU)$ </a>可不可以跌一跌让我加加仓 [财迷]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\"> $新东方(EDU)$ </a>可不可以跌一跌让我加加仓 [财迷]","text":"$新东方(EDU)$ 可不可以跌一跌让我加加仓 [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d690b4a60e95b46d26cc8bb493020b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/241733182284000","repostId":"241727790022688","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":241727790022688,"gmtCreate":1700046415534,"gmtModify":1700046467717,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【晒单有奖】中概大反弹，老乡快醒醒，行情回来了！","htmlText":"涨了！涨了！终于涨了！中概大反弹，老乡快醒醒，行情回来了！快来看看你赚了多少钱～香港下调印花税即使生效，受美国通胀降温以及中国经济持续相好影响，港股三大指数大涨。截至收盘，恒生指数涨3.92%，恒生科技指数涨4.41%，国企指数涨4.02%。核心科技股集体上涨，京东涨超6%， <a 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