chhhim的个人主页 - 老虎社区

chhhim

chhhim

个人简介：HK巴菲特

IP属地：广东

22关注

6粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2023-03-16

$瑞士信贷(CS)$ 搞小小啦

2023-02-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 安心啦！最坏打算就转走！不会没了！每只股票只收150usd。

2023-02-10

$富途控股(FUTU)$ 跑啊

2023-01-19

$Payoneer Global Inc.(PAYO)$ 众人以为我收皮实情做T已回来。今年将会大举买入p卡和Amazon

2022-12-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 又来了

2022-10-28

被期权伤得太深，买一点参与一下就好了 [喷血]

2022-10-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$财报结束，老马不得不特斯拉疯狂套现买推特

2022-09-22

好

美联储加息75个基点，利率水平升至2008年以来新高

2022-09-15

美国8月零售销售月率 0.3%，强化fed加息预期！加100吧！让暴风雨来得更猛烈

2022-08-22

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$继续坚持目前-30%。大盘跌10个点就可以回血了 [贱笑] [贱笑]

2022-07-28

$亚马逊(AMZN)$这个凉了吗。我还可以怎么操作。

2022-07-21

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$扛不住啦。sqqq

2021-12-28

$Payoneer Global Inc.(PAYO)$圣诞行情有没有呢。九块买的跌到6块。期待快点动起来！看好你payo

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跑啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd5490e7e26e08e5b9daba76e3d1097","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625973755","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626691524,"gmtCreate":1674068848168,"gmtModify":1674068850318,"author":{"id":"4102522404628020","authorId":"4102522404628020","name":"chhhim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6256a9b443afea28b7c4613de26e5be","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAYO\">$Payoneer Global Inc.(PAYO)$&nbsp;</a>众人以为我收皮 实情做T已回来。今年将会大举买入p卡和Amazon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAYO\">$Payoneer Global Inc.(PAYO)$&nbsp;</a>众人以为我收皮 实情做T已回来。今年将会大举买入p卡和Amazon","text":"$Payoneer Global Inc.(PAYO)$ 众人以为我收皮 实情做T已回来。今年将会大举买入p卡和Amazon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f3e595968b1ffd7403af5880e9fede","width":"760","height":"760"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626691524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623476744,"gmtCreate":1671633844288,"gmtModify":1671633846084,"author":{"id":"4102522404628020","authorId":"4102522404628020","name":"chhhim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6256a9b443afea28b7c4613de26e5be","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>又来了&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>又来了&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 又来了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/016108be42e7d3536e372df27580f26b","width":"600","height":"686"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623476744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665960280,"gmtCreate":1666898423940,"gmtModify":1666898428933,"author":{"id":"4102522404628020","authorId":"4102522404628020","name":"chhhim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6256a9b443afea28b7c4613de26e5be","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"被期权伤得太深，买一点参与一下就好了&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"被期权伤得太深，买一点参与一下就好了&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"被期权伤得太深，买一点参与一下就好了 [喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665960280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662196591,"gmtCreate":1666245547014,"gmtModify":1666245549408,"author":{"id":"4102522404628020","authorId":"4102522404628020","name":"chhhim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6256a9b443afea28b7c4613de26e5be","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>财报结束，老马不得不特斯拉疯狂套现&nbsp;买推特","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>财报结束，老马不得不特斯拉疯狂套现&nbsp;买推特","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$财报结束，老马不得不特斯拉疯狂套现 买推特","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662196591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661158389,"gmtCreate":1663784338642,"gmtModify":1663784340287,"author":{"id":"4102522404628020","authorId":"4102522404628020","name":"chhhim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6256a9b443afea28b7c4613de26e5be","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661158389","repostId":"1108206076","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108206076","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663783220,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108206076?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-22 02:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储加息75个基点，利率水平升至2008年以来新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108206076","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月21日，美联储加息75个基点将基准利率升至3.00%-3.25%区间，利率水平升至2008年以来新高。美联储宣布加息75个基点后，美股短线下挫，美股三大股指迅速转跌。美联储FOMC声明变化一览：声","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月21日，美联储加息75个基点将基准利率升至3.00%-3.25%区间，利率水平升至2008年以来新高。</p><p>美联储宣布加息75个基点后，美股短线下挫，美股三大股指迅速转跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57fb0ee71412eddafe708fabfd4f6eef\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储FOMC声明变化一览：声明全文除上调目标区间利率外一字未改</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f78011d2a05b40a3749195e14a853e\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"905\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>和今年7月的上次加息一样，本次美联储的加息幅度也符合市场预期，并且，这一加息决策得到全体FOMC投票委员支持。</p><p>在本周的决议声明中，美联储重申继续加息是适宜的，而且会后更新的利率预期中位值显示，联储决策者预计加息后利率明年达到的峰值为4.6%，比市场之前预计的明年峰值4.5%还高，意味着联储的加息力度最终比市场预期的还大。</p><blockquote>点阵图：几乎所有官员预计 到今年底加息至4%以上 明年高于4.25% 近三成官员预计后年还超过4%</blockquote><p>本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，相比今年6月发布的上次点阵图，本次美联储决策者预计的加息力度明显更强。</p><p>本次<b>除一人外其他所有18名联储官员都预计</b>，<b>到今年底</b>，<b>政策利率</b>联邦基金利率将<b>升至4.0%以上</b>，其中一人甚至预计届时利率将超过4.5%。而上次全体预计将升至3.0%以上，无一人预计会超过4.0%。</p><p>本次共有<b>18名官员预计，明年政策利率超过4.25%，只有一人预计低于4.0%，强烈暗示明年可能不会降息</b>；而上次只有5人预计利率超过4.0%、其中仅一人预计高于4.25%。</p><p>本次共有<b>13名官员预计</b>，<b>后年政策利率低于4.0%</b>，其中7人预计在3.5%到4.0%之间，4人预计在3.0%到3.5%之间，两人预计低于3.0%，<b>共有6人、占总人数超过31%的官员预计</b>，届时利率<b>还超过4.0%</b>；上次有4人预计后年利率低于3.0%，13人预计高于3.0%。</p><blockquote>美联储全线上调今明后三年利率预期 明年利率峰值高于市场预期</blockquote><p>本次会后公布的更新后经济展望显示，美联储官员不但全线上调今明后三年的利率预期，而且预计的三年间利率最高水平中位值达4.6%，超过华尔街和市场预计的利率峰值。本次联储公布加息前，大部分华尔街机构对联邦基金利率峰值的预期在4%到4.25%，而市场预期普遍偏高，预计明年3月可能达到4.5%。本次经济展望中，美联储预计：</p><ul><li>2022年年底的联邦基金利率为4.4%，较6月预计的3.4%上调100个基点。</li><li>2023年年底的联邦基金利率为4.6%，较6月预计的3.8%上调80个基点。</li><li>2024年底的联邦基金利率为3.9%，较6月预计的3.4%上调50个基点。</li><li>新增2025年底的联邦基金利率预期值为2.9%。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c18a8fd5cd5d3584eaee5bc7e5215457\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><blockquote>继续重申让通胀回落到目标的承诺 、未来适合继续加息</blockquote><p>在利率决策方面，美联储重申FOMC寻求实现充分就业和长期通胀达到2%的双重目标，在表示为支持以上双重目标而决定加息75个基点后，联储继续重申3月的表述：</p><blockquote>“（FOMC）委员会预期，让上调目标利率区间继续下去会是适合的。”</blockquote><p>和7月的上次声明一样，本次美联储会后声明继续重申了6月声明新增的这句话：</p><blockquote>“（FOMC）委员会<b>强烈承诺，将让通胀率回落至2%这一目标。</b>”</blockquote><p>继续重申联储高度关注通胀风险、高通胀体现能源涨价 改称支出和生产增长温和</p><p>本次会议声明继续重申3月声明首次提到的俄乌冲突的影响表述：俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，并且保持了和7月一样的说辞：</p><blockquote>俄乌冲突“相关事件正在对通胀制造新的上行压力，并正在对经济活动施压。”</blockquote><p>和7月声明一样，本次声明紧接着上面那句俄乌冲突影响后，<b>再次重申了5月追加的那句FOMC“高度关注通胀风险”</b>。</p><p>在评价经济时，本次声明继续重申了6月所说的“近几个月就业增长强劲、失业率保持低位”，并继续重申3月声明对通胀的评价：</p><blockquote>通胀依然高企，体现了新冠疫情、食品和能源价格上涨以及更大范围价格压力相关的供需失衡。</blockquote><p>和上次7月声明有所不同的是，本次将7月所说的“最近的支出和生产指标已减弱”，改为“最近指标显示，支出和生产增长温和”。</p><blockquote>继续重申缩表按5月计划进行</blockquote><p>今年5月美联储公布了缩减资产负债表（缩表）的路线，从6月1日起减少债券持仓，最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构抵押支持证券（MBS），三个月后月度减持最高规模提升一倍。</p><p>和6月及7月一样，本次声明未重申上述路线，而是说，将继续按5月公布的缩表路线减持国债、机构债和机构MBS。</p><p><b>市场评论：</b></p><p>美联储通过点阵图向市场发出强烈信号——未来的加息会更高幅度，持续更久。</p><p>分析师Jersey：美联储点状图显示的最终利率比我们预期的高出25个基点，因此条件反射式的熊市趋平对我们来说并不意外。我们仍预计两年期/10年期国债收益率曲线将至少倒挂60个基点。点状图的利率预期中值升高，向我们发出的信号是，美联储致力于抗击通胀的使命，因此，如果在此之前通胀没有继续下降，12月的预测可能会略高。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：美联储的预测显示对软着陆的信心正在减弱。根据决策者周三公布的预测，将通胀率降至2%目标的积极举措将需要数年时间才能完成，其代价是失业率明显上升，经济增长放缓。政策制定者周三发布的预测对所谓的“软着陆”前景构成了质疑。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：美联储主席鲍威尔希望，预期的利率路径将发挥作用，使他能够避免类似保罗•沃尔克的行动带来的高昂成本，包括10.8%的失业率。但这些预测确实表明，在美联储努力遏制通胀、防止鲍威尔所说的更糟糕结果出现之际，美国人将面临一些痛苦。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：所有的注意力都集中在对2022年和2023年的利率预测上，但我对点状图中2024年和2025年的显著分歧感兴趣。一些FOMC官员预计2024年将降息约100个基点，2025年将进一步降息。较长期预期基本相同（这并不令人惊讶），委员会中约有三分之一的人认为到2025年底将降息到2.5%的范围。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：美联储的点阵图是鹰派的。美联储发出的信号是最终利率是4.6%，市场很快就对这一利率进行了重新定价。重要的是，美联储还暗示今年将再加息125个基点，市场预计11月将加息75个基点，12月将加息50个基点。我们预计鲍威尔在新闻发布会上发布会有类似的鹰派论调。美联储正致力于降低通胀，并将隔夜拆借利率升至限制性区间。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储加息75个基点，利率水平升至2008年以来新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-22 02:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月21日，美联储加息75个基点将基准利率升至3.00%-3.25%区间，利率水平升至2008年以来新高。</p><p>美联储宣布加息75个基点后，美股短线下挫，美股三大股指迅速转跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57fb0ee71412eddafe708fabfd4f6eef\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储FOMC声明变化一览：声明全文除上调目标区间利率外一字未改</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f78011d2a05b40a3749195e14a853e\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"905\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>和今年7月的上次加息一样，本次美联储的加息幅度也符合市场预期，并且，这一加息决策得到全体FOMC投票委员支持。</p><p>在本周的决议声明中，美联储重申继续加息是适宜的，而且会后更新的利率预期中位值显示，联储决策者预计加息后利率明年达到的峰值为4.6%，比市场之前预计的明年峰值4.5%还高，意味着联储的加息力度最终比市场预期的还大。</p><blockquote>点阵图：几乎所有官员预计 到今年底加息至4%以上 明年高于4.25% 近三成官员预计后年还超过4%</blockquote><p>本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，相比今年6月发布的上次点阵图，本次美联储决策者预计的加息力度明显更强。</p><p>本次<b>除一人外其他所有18名联储官员都预计</b>，<b>到今年底</b>，<b>政策利率</b>联邦基金利率将<b>升至4.0%以上</b>，其中一人甚至预计届时利率将超过4.5%。而上次全体预计将升至3.0%以上，无一人预计会超过4.0%。</p><p>本次共有<b>18名官员预计，明年政策利率超过4.25%，只有一人预计低于4.0%，强烈暗示明年可能不会降息</b>；而上次只有5人预计利率超过4.0%、其中仅一人预计高于4.25%。</p><p>本次共有<b>13名官员预计</b>，<b>后年政策利率低于4.0%</b>，其中7人预计在3.5%到4.0%之间，4人预计在3.0%到3.5%之间，两人预计低于3.0%，<b>共有6人、占总人数超过31%的官员预计</b>，届时利率<b>还超过4.0%</b>；上次有4人预计后年利率低于3.0%，13人预计高于3.0%。</p><blockquote>美联储全线上调今明后三年利率预期 明年利率峰值高于市场预期</blockquote><p>本次会后公布的更新后经济展望显示，美联储官员不但全线上调今明后三年的利率预期，而且预计的三年间利率最高水平中位值达4.6%，超过华尔街和市场预计的利率峰值。本次联储公布加息前，大部分华尔街机构对联邦基金利率峰值的预期在4%到4.25%，而市场预期普遍偏高，预计明年3月可能达到4.5%。本次经济展望中，美联储预计：</p><ul><li>2022年年底的联邦基金利率为4.4%，较6月预计的3.4%上调100个基点。</li><li>2023年年底的联邦基金利率为4.6%，较6月预计的3.8%上调80个基点。</li><li>2024年底的联邦基金利率为3.9%，较6月预计的3.4%上调50个基点。</li><li>新增2025年底的联邦基金利率预期值为2.9%。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c18a8fd5cd5d3584eaee5bc7e5215457\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><blockquote>继续重申让通胀回落到目标的承诺 、未来适合继续加息</blockquote><p>在利率决策方面，美联储重申FOMC寻求实现充分就业和长期通胀达到2%的双重目标，在表示为支持以上双重目标而决定加息75个基点后，联储继续重申3月的表述：</p><blockquote>“（FOMC）委员会预期，让上调目标利率区间继续下去会是适合的。”</blockquote><p>和7月的上次声明一样，本次美联储会后声明继续重申了6月声明新增的这句话：</p><blockquote>“（FOMC）委员会<b>强烈承诺，将让通胀率回落至2%这一目标。</b>”</blockquote><p>继续重申联储高度关注通胀风险、高通胀体现能源涨价 改称支出和生产增长温和</p><p>本次会议声明继续重申3月声明首次提到的俄乌冲突的影响表述：俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，并且保持了和7月一样的说辞：</p><blockquote>俄乌冲突“相关事件正在对通胀制造新的上行压力，并正在对经济活动施压。”</blockquote><p>和7月声明一样，本次声明紧接着上面那句俄乌冲突影响后，<b>再次重申了5月追加的那句FOMC“高度关注通胀风险”</b>。</p><p>在评价经济时，本次声明继续重申了6月所说的“近几个月就业增长强劲、失业率保持低位”，并继续重申3月声明对通胀的评价：</p><blockquote>通胀依然高企，体现了新冠疫情、食品和能源价格上涨以及更大范围价格压力相关的供需失衡。</blockquote><p>和上次7月声明有所不同的是，本次将7月所说的“最近的支出和生产指标已减弱”，改为“最近指标显示，支出和生产增长温和”。</p><blockquote>继续重申缩表按5月计划进行</blockquote><p>今年5月美联储公布了缩减资产负债表（缩表）的路线，从6月1日起减少债券持仓，最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构抵押支持证券（MBS），三个月后月度减持最高规模提升一倍。</p><p>和6月及7月一样，本次声明未重申上述路线，而是说，将继续按5月公布的缩表路线减持国债、机构债和机构MBS。</p><p><b>市场评论：</b></p><p>美联储通过点阵图向市场发出强烈信号——未来的加息会更高幅度，持续更久。</p><p>分析师Jersey：美联储点状图显示的最终利率比我们预期的高出25个基点，因此条件反射式的熊市趋平对我们来说并不意外。我们仍预计两年期/10年期国债收益率曲线将至少倒挂60个基点。点状图的利率预期中值升高，向我们发出的信号是，美联储致力于抗击通胀的使命，因此，如果在此之前通胀没有继续下降，12月的预测可能会略高。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：美联储的预测显示对软着陆的信心正在减弱。根据决策者周三公布的预测，将通胀率降至2%目标的积极举措将需要数年时间才能完成，其代价是失业率明显上升，经济增长放缓。政策制定者周三发布的预测对所谓的“软着陆”前景构成了质疑。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：美联储主席鲍威尔希望，预期的利率路径将发挥作用，使他能够避免类似保罗•沃尔克的行动带来的高昂成本，包括10.8%的失业率。但这些预测确实表明，在美联储努力遏制通胀、防止鲍威尔所说的更糟糕结果出现之际，美国人将面临一些痛苦。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：所有的注意力都集中在对2022年和2023年的利率预测上，但我对点状图中2024年和2025年的显著分歧感兴趣。一些FOMC官员预计2024年将降息约100个基点，2025年将进一步降息。较长期预期基本相同（这并不令人惊讶），委员会中约有三分之一的人认为到2025年底将降息到2.5%的范围。</p><p>机构评美联储利率决议：美联储的点阵图是鹰派的。美联储发出的信号是最终利率是4.6%，市场很快就对这一利率进行了重新定价。重要的是，美联储还暗示今年将再加息125个基点，市场预计11月将加息75个基点，12月将加息50个基点。我们预计鲍威尔在新闻发布会上发布会有类似的鹰派论调。美联储正致力于降低通胀，并将隔夜拆借利率升至限制性区间。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108206076","content_text":"9月21日，美联储加息75个基点将基准利率升至3.00%-3.25%区间，利率水平升至2008年以来新高。美联储宣布加息75个基点后，美股短线下挫，美股三大股指迅速转跌。美联储FOMC声明变化一览：声明全文除上调目标区间利率外一字未改和今年7月的上次加息一样，本次美联储的加息幅度也符合市场预期，并且，这一加息决策得到全体FOMC投票委员支持。在本周的决议声明中，美联储重申继续加息是适宜的，而且会后更新的利率预期中位值显示，联储决策者预计加息后利率明年达到的峰值为4.6%，比市场之前预计的明年峰值4.5%还高，意味着联储的加息力度最终比市场预期的还大。点阵图：几乎所有官员预计 到今年底加息至4%以上 明年高于4.25% 近三成官员预计后年还超过4%本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，相比今年6月发布的上次点阵图，本次美联储决策者预计的加息力度明显更强。本次除一人外其他所有18名联储官员都预计，到今年底，政策利率联邦基金利率将升至4.0%以上，其中一人甚至预计届时利率将超过4.5%。而上次全体预计将升至3.0%以上，无一人预计会超过4.0%。本次共有18名官员预计，明年政策利率超过4.25%，只有一人预计低于4.0%，强烈暗示明年可能不会降息；而上次只有5人预计利率超过4.0%、其中仅一人预计高于4.25%。本次共有13名官员预计，后年政策利率低于4.0%，其中7人预计在3.5%到4.0%之间，4人预计在3.0%到3.5%之间，两人预计低于3.0%，共有6人、占总人数超过31%的官员预计，届时利率还超过4.0%；上次有4人预计后年利率低于3.0%，13人预计高于3.0%。美联储全线上调今明后三年利率预期 明年利率峰值高于市场预期本次会后公布的更新后经济展望显示，美联储官员不但全线上调今明后三年的利率预期，而且预计的三年间利率最高水平中位值达4.6%，超过华尔街和市场预计的利率峰值。本次联储公布加息前，大部分华尔街机构对联邦基金利率峰值的预期在4%到4.25%，而市场预期普遍偏高，预计明年3月可能达到4.5%。本次经济展望中，美联储预计：2022年年底的联邦基金利率为4.4%，较6月预计的3.4%上调100个基点。2023年年底的联邦基金利率为4.6%，较6月预计的3.8%上调80个基点。2024年底的联邦基金利率为3.9%，较6月预计的3.4%上调50个基点。新增2025年底的联邦基金利率预期值为2.9%。继续重申让通胀回落到目标的承诺 、未来适合继续加息在利率决策方面，美联储重申FOMC寻求实现充分就业和长期通胀达到2%的双重目标，在表示为支持以上双重目标而决定加息75个基点后，联储继续重申3月的表述：“（FOMC）委员会预期，让上调目标利率区间继续下去会是适合的。”和7月的上次声明一样，本次美联储会后声明继续重申了6月声明新增的这句话：“（FOMC）委员会强烈承诺，将让通胀率回落至2%这一目标。”继续重申联储高度关注通胀风险、高通胀体现能源涨价 改称支出和生产增长温和本次会议声明继续重申3月声明首次提到的俄乌冲突的影响表述：俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，并且保持了和7月一样的说辞：俄乌冲突“相关事件正在对通胀制造新的上行压力，并正在对经济活动施压。”和7月声明一样，本次声明紧接着上面那句俄乌冲突影响后，再次重申了5月追加的那句FOMC“高度关注通胀风险”。在评价经济时，本次声明继续重申了6月所说的“近几个月就业增长强劲、失业率保持低位”，并继续重申3月声明对通胀的评价：通胀依然高企，体现了新冠疫情、食品和能源价格上涨以及更大范围价格压力相关的供需失衡。和上次7月声明有所不同的是，本次将7月所说的“最近的支出和生产指标已减弱”，改为“最近指标显示，支出和生产增长温和”。继续重申缩表按5月计划进行今年5月美联储公布了缩减资产负债表（缩表）的路线，从6月1日起减少债券持仓，最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构抵押支持证券（MBS），三个月后月度减持最高规模提升一倍。和6月及7月一样，本次声明未重申上述路线，而是说，将继续按5月公布的缩表路线减持国债、机构债和机构MBS。市场评论：美联储通过点阵图向市场发出强烈信号——未来的加息会更高幅度，持续更久。分析师Jersey：美联储点状图显示的最终利率比我们预期的高出25个基点，因此条件反射式的熊市趋平对我们来说并不意外。我们仍预计两年期/10年期国债收益率曲线将至少倒挂60个基点。点状图的利率预期中值升高，向我们发出的信号是，美联储致力于抗击通胀的使命，因此，如果在此之前通胀没有继续下降，12月的预测可能会略高。机构评美联储利率决议：美联储的预测显示对软着陆的信心正在减弱。根据决策者周三公布的预测，将通胀率降至2%目标的积极举措将需要数年时间才能完成，其代价是失业率明显上升，经济增长放缓。政策制定者周三发布的预测对所谓的“软着陆”前景构成了质疑。机构评美联储利率决议：美联储主席鲍威尔希望，预期的利率路径将发挥作用，使他能够避免类似保罗•沃尔克的行动带来的高昂成本，包括10.8%的失业率。但这些预测确实表明，在美联储努力遏制通胀、防止鲍威尔所说的更糟糕结果出现之际，美国人将面临一些痛苦。机构评美联储利率决议：所有的注意力都集中在对2022年和2023年的利率预测上，但我对点状图中2024年和2025年的显著分歧感兴趣。一些FOMC官员预计2024年将降息约100个基点，2025年将进一步降息。较长期预期基本相同（这并不令人惊讶），委员会中约有三分之一的人认为到2025年底将降息到2.5%的范围。机构评美联储利率决议：美联储的点阵图是鹰派的。美联储发出的信号是最终利率是4.6%，市场很快就对这一利率进行了重新定价。重要的是，美联储还暗示今年将再加息125个基点，市场预计11月将加息75个基点，12月将加息50个基点。我们预计鲍威尔在新闻发布会上发布会有类似的鹰派论调。美联储正致力于降低通胀，并将隔夜拆借利率升至限制性区间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663509751,"gmtCreate":1663245753973,"gmtModify":1663245755697,"author":{"id":"4102522404628020","authorId":"4102522404628020","name":"chhhim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6256a9b443afea28b7c4613de26e5be","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国8月零售销售月率 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