马斯克本人的个人主页 - 老虎社区

马斯克本人

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马斯克本人

2021-12-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$手里永远保持现金，任何时候都不要all in 面对下跌一点都不用慌

马斯克本人

2021-11-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$永远不要去用常规的方法去分析特斯拉的走势

马斯克本人

2021-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$可以加仓了吗？

马斯克本人

2021-11-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$看不清形势下，选择不买也不卖

马斯克本人

2021-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$现在是预热，开盘后会跌得更多

马斯克本人

2021-11-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$作为长期投资者，真希望它不要拆股

马斯克本人

2021-11-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$作为散户，要出周一就应该出了，现在还没出，就老老实实持有吧

马斯克本人

2021-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$经历过腰斩，目前还是小风浪

马斯克本人

2021-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉一向都是大起大落😄

马斯克本人

2021-12-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$up up up

马斯克本人

2021-11-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$相信自己的判断

马斯克本人

2021-11-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$太狠了….

马斯克本人

2021-11-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$1060走

马斯克本人

2021-11-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$感觉马斯克在打哑谜，解开哑谜的人能成为亿万富翁

马斯克本人

2021-12-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天吃饱了

马斯克本人

2021-12-03

12 pro 换壳就是13

苹果及供应链股价下跌，传市场对iPhone13系列需求放缓

马斯克本人

2021-11-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$柏林工厂即将启动，上海工厂即将扩建

马斯克本人

2021-11-28

赚钱的好机会

特斯拉遭“空袭”！国际大行将目标价爆降75％，并全部清仓，嗅到了什么？马斯克仍在大举套现，影响多大？

马斯克本人

2021-11-24

昨天买了，1120…还是高了

文件披露显示马斯克卖出更多特斯拉股票

马斯克本人

2021-11-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$还好没有手贱在1060的时候下车[开心]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>相信自己的判断","listText":"<a 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10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"文件披露显示马斯克卖出更多特斯拉股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130446298","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。\n据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了2227","content":"<p>特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。</p>\n<p>据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了222711股股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25bb0db16e33cb4b784579049032ac66\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>文件披露显示马斯克卖出更多特斯拉股票</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n文件披露显示马斯克卖出更多特斯拉股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-24 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。</p>\n<p>据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了222711股股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25bb0db16e33cb4b784579049032ac66\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130446298","content_text":"特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。\n据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了222711股股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874017142,"gmtCreate":1637711774914,"gmtModify":1637711774914,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为长期投资者，真希望它不要拆股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为长期投资者，真希望它不要拆股","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$作为长期投资者，真希望它不要拆股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874017142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873543238,"gmtCreate":1636967585828,"gmtModify":1636967585828,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>永远不要去用常规的方法去分析特斯拉的走势","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>永远不要去用常规的方法去分析特斯拉的走势","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$永远不要去用常规的方法去分析特斯拉的走势","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873543238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873096252,"gmtCreate":1636788406503,"gmtModify":1636788406503,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>看不清形势下，选择不买也不卖","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>看不清形势下，选择不买也不卖","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$看不清形势下，选择不买也不卖","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873096252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879479169,"gmtCreate":1636768255391,"gmtModify":1636768255470,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为散户，要出周一就应该出了，现在还没出，就老老实实持有吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为散户，要出周一就应该出了，现在还没出，就老老实实持有吧","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$作为散户，要出周一就应该出了，现在还没出，就老老实实持有吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879479169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870889230,"gmtCreate":1636599974639,"gmtModify":1636601789867,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>还好没有手贱在1060的时候下车[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>还好没有手贱在1060的时候下车[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$还好没有手贱在1060的时候下车[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870889230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870090881,"gmtCreate":1636556861594,"gmtModify":1636557244063,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我都想抛了，又涨了[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我都想抛了，又涨了[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$我都想抛了，又涨了[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870090881","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847771989,"gmtCreate":1636556241474,"gmtModify":1636556272639,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>1060走","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>1060走","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$1060走","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847771989","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842534280,"gmtCreate":1636198239960,"gmtModify":1636198240028,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉最值钱的就是马老板，特斯拉的估值里有他的一半","listText":"特斯拉最值钱的就是马老板，特斯拉的估值里有他的一半","text":"特斯拉最值钱的就是马老板，特斯拉的估值里有他的一半","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842534280","repostId":"2181374865","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2181374865","pubTimestamp":1636159290,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2181374865?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-06 08:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉究竟值多少钱？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2181374865","media":"格隆汇","summary":"超出想象","content":"<p>美联储，终结<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>吧。</p>\n<p>这是所有空头的愿望，但事实可能是一厢情愿，因为美联储Taper落地，特斯拉继续高涨，空头估计已经被搞得没脾气了。</p>\n<p><b>当然，你可以说这次的落地早都在预期之内，没有新鲜事，也没有预期差，但问题就在于此，特斯拉或许根本不惧怕美联储。</b></p>\n<p>为何？</p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>估值模式探讨</b></h3>\n<p>股市说白了就是一个定价系统，价格总是围绕价值上下波动，所有金融系学生都会背的一个理论。这也衍生出了一个亘古不变的真理：涨多了跌，跌多了涨。所以，搞清楚价值是多少，才能知道价格是否合理，其实就是估值问题。</p>\n<p>首先说明一下，估值模型主要是基于现有的参考模型，或者会有“词不达意”的地方，所以无法做出非常精确的计算，只是想给大家提供一个参考。</p>\n<p><b>不管是硬件还是软件，最终都要以盈利说事，所以估值模型选择市盈率。特斯拉究竟会成长为一个什么样的巨兽，我们先不YY，来点实际的。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉的业务，现在主要分为<b>硬件和软件</b>，硬件就是<b>汽车</b>，这个相对简单，复杂的是<b>软件</b>，因为包含太多，大数据、自动驾驶、AI等。</p>\n<p>所以，理论上，特斯拉可以分开估值，最后加总。</p>\n<p><b>基于以上，我们亲自来做一下测算，看看特斯拉究竟值多少钱。</b></p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>测算</b></h3>\n<p><b>先看硬件。</b></p>\n<p>以特斯拉的发展路径，我们选择了两家对比度较高的公司，一个是<b>丰田</b>，另一个是<b>大众</b>，因为这两家公司都是多车型的综合车企，这点和特斯拉较为切合。截取最新的数据，丰田和大众平均每辆车的净利润分别为1.78万、0.9万（人民币），销售量都在1000万的级别，而PE常年在10-15倍的区间浮动。</p>\n<p>套用两家公司的模型，特斯拉硬件部分的估值区间就在1万亿--2.6万亿的区间（单位：人民币，下同，两种PE模型下，均值分别为1.38万亿、2.07万亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d2e3f76f7836712ab75ee80de70494\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>再说软件。</b></p>\n<p>美国上市的大型软件公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、Google这些，经营都已经相当成熟，净利润率水平大多在30%左右，PE在30倍左右，可以作为参考指标。</p>\n<p>至于软件业务的净利润，也需要分两种情况，以自动驾驶为例。</p>\n<p><b>1、买断式。</b></p>\n<p>现在特斯拉有两种买断式收费模式，以中国为例，基础版3.2万和增强版6.4万（美国的略贵，本次以中国作为参考），假如1000万的销量里，有三种渗透率，对应的利润情况如下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57f7822c04c3e35f5899fcabb45241b\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>三大渗透率所对应的估值分别为：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2376d87cdc5c136277932c8599fb213\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>2、订阅式。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉的订阅模式现在主要在美国本土推广，有199美元/月（约合15600元人民币/年），假设以此做为参考系，并以丰田的全球保有量做对标，目前全球汽车保有量为14亿辆，参考丰田10%的销售市占率计算，为1.4亿，每年带来的净利润测算如下：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358c67ef6da483a13c9038f6b0d24a88\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>三大净利润所对应的估值分别为：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02be5ffec0dad53652d4c5170ff52a25\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对软件的估值做一个简单的加总，可以有以下的结论：</p>\n<p><b>1、三种渗透率所对应的估值区间（平均）在3.59万亿--9.37万亿之间。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b495a83abc53e55b24fc991a21e5c1\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>2、订阅式所产生的商业价值更大。</b>因为它的计算基础是以每年的保有量，这显然比每年的新车销售多很多，乐观情况下，可以接近10万亿，这也从侧面反映了特斯拉较为热衷推广订阅式的原因。</p>\n<p>最后加总。</p>\n<p><b>硬件和软件两部分估值（均值）做个统计，结论如下：</b></p>\n<p>1、特斯拉最小的估值为4.97万亿，最大的估值可以到11.44万亿，按现在的汇率换算成美元，<b>为7775亿—17881亿，均值为12828亿，约等于现在的市值。</b></p>\n<p>这个结论也可以为特斯拉最终会冲上两万亿市值，复制<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>市值神话提供测算支撑，也从侧面解释了特斯拉在业绩完全无法支撑现在的高估值，但仍然有资金蜂拥而入。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c25b5b0f1f08a482dcef482206c6f7\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>2、相比起硬件，软件的商业价值更高。</b>所以马斯克才拼命地降低车价，因为他明白，让出的这点硬件利润，最后都会软件上几倍几倍地赚回来。</p>\n<p>当然，这个测算过程所设定的参数并不完全精确，因为特斯拉要达到年销售1000万台、保有量1.4亿台，会是很多年以后的事情，而自动驾驶的应用同样如此。</p>\n<p>这个过程快的话得10年，慢的话搞不好要20-30年，加上经济增长、通胀变化、人口增长、汽车销量以及保有量的动态增长、汽车售价以及净利润变化、以及可能出现的汽车产业商业模式的变化等等，当中所要面临的不确定性因素太多，所以这只能算一个不会偏离实际但却相对模糊的参考。</p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>信仰</b></h3>\n<p>如果说以前买入特斯拉，需要风投般的视死如归精神，那最近一年的买入，则安心很多，因为特斯拉除了节节攀升的交付量，更重要的是，它在盈利和现金流方面都交出了令人满意的答案。加上现在全球都在搞“碳中和”，特斯拉未来的预期，可以说非常的正面，这就是特斯拉信仰。</p>\n<p><b>除此之外，还有一个重要的支撑原因，那就是特斯拉有“章”可循，这个章，就是传统车企、苹果、微软等等，这些企业为特斯拉提供了对标。</b></p>\n<p>一般而言，投资最怕的是在无人区瞎碰，因为你不知道前面是万丈深渊还是一路坦途。资本市场对于未知的事物，也很容易犯糊涂，就拿2000年的互联网泡沫来说，那个时候即使是最资深的投资家，对于互联网公司值多少钱这个话题，都没法讲清楚，因为根本没有什么现成的“锚”可供参考。加上流动性充裕，还有三教九流在其中搞鬼，好浑水摸鱼，以至于狂热到如脱缰野马，最后一地鸡毛。</p>\n<p><b>这一次则不一样，特斯拉能够参考的标的太多了。</b>硬件的、软件的，都不是新鲜事，依靠这些对标物，能够大体知道特斯拉的价值处在什么区间，如果还要算上马斯克这个天才的想象力，未来再搞出什么新花样，那估值说不定还可以继续上扬。</p>\n<p><b>这就是资金有底气不断往上轰的原因。</b>只有长线增长逻辑没到尽头，每一次看似惊悚的下坠，拉长时间看，只不过是一朵小浪花。那些庆幸躲过一劫的投资者，用不着多久就会被证明是捡了芝麻丢西瓜。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a487f1ea0c285810769056b205e39060\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bf5f6a8079715ea65e2bbb62935d31\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>对于激进的投资者，特斯拉的每一次回调，都是买入机会。</b></p>\n<p>著名的特斯拉拥护者“木头姐”曾经发表过深度研究报告，指出特斯拉的价值会上到3万亿美元，比我们上述的估值还要激进，原因在于她的估值模型是基于<b>无人驾驶</b>，这种预测非常超前，是站在颠覆现有汽车业商业模式的基础之上。</p>\n<p>至于对不对，那就见仁见智了，因为无人驾驶还没有出现，用现有的逻辑框架是无法验证的。</p>\n<h3>4</h3>\n<h3><b>结语</b></h3>\n<p>明明拿了好股票，但就是拿不住，赚了一点小钱就早早下车，错过后面的主升浪。又或者，明明是不行的股票，就是不愿意放手，一路守着虚无缥缈的希望。</p>\n<p>相信这是很多股民的写照，当中的原因，除了各种人性、不成熟投资心理、资金成本作祟外，最重要的一点，就是对未来无法预知。</p>\n<p>这其实也是做投资最难的地方，毕竟没有一个人有水晶球。<b>芒格有句老话：“如果我知道会死在哪里，我就永远不会去那里。”</b></p>\n<p>不过，投资同样可以通过数量化测算，减少对未来认知的模糊性。</p>\n<p>若实在不想太麻烦，选择长长的坡，厚厚的雪，比什么都重要。现在，新能源就是这样一个长坡，而对于这个坡上的优质股票，最佳策略就是保有一定的底仓，是打死都不能卖，又留有一些筹码做高抛低吸，这样才可以既不错过长期的增值，也能够吃到短期股价波动的红利。最重要的，这种策略可以让躁动的心有一个出口，让管不住的手有发泄的地方。</p>\n<p>回到特斯拉，如果你还想买，基于保守原则，现在并非好机会，因为股价短时间被急剧拉升，风险也在加大。</p>\n<p>但是，如果特斯拉有大的回调，希望你不要错过。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉究竟值多少钱？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-06 08:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/494842><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储，终结特斯拉吧。\n这是所有空头的愿望，但事实可能是一厢情愿，因为美联储Taper落地，特斯拉继续高涨，空头估计已经被搞得没脾气了。\n当然，你可以说这次的落地早都在预期之内，没有新鲜事，也没有预期差，但问题就在于此，特斯拉或许根本不惧怕美联储。\n为何？\n1\n估值模式探讨\n股市说白了就是一个定价系统，价格总是围绕价值上下波动，所有金融系学生都会背的一个理论。这也衍生出了一个亘古不变的真理：涨多了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/494842\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc88ea6e80baf417076dafe2b56a22b","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/494842","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2181374865","content_text":"美联储，终结特斯拉吧。\n这是所有空头的愿望，但事实可能是一厢情愿，因为美联储Taper落地，特斯拉继续高涨，空头估计已经被搞得没脾气了。\n当然，你可以说这次的落地早都在预期之内，没有新鲜事，也没有预期差，但问题就在于此，特斯拉或许根本不惧怕美联储。\n为何？\n1\n估值模式探讨\n股市说白了就是一个定价系统，价格总是围绕价值上下波动，所有金融系学生都会背的一个理论。这也衍生出了一个亘古不变的真理：涨多了跌，跌多了涨。所以，搞清楚价值是多少，才能知道价格是否合理，其实就是估值问题。\n首先说明一下，估值模型主要是基于现有的参考模型，或者会有“词不达意”的地方，所以无法做出非常精确的计算，只是想给大家提供一个参考。\n不管是硬件还是软件，最终都要以盈利说事，所以估值模型选择市盈率。特斯拉究竟会成长为一个什么样的巨兽，我们先不YY，来点实际的。\n特斯拉的业务，现在主要分为硬件和软件，硬件就是汽车，这个相对简单，复杂的是软件，因为包含太多，大数据、自动驾驶、AI等。\n所以，理论上，特斯拉可以分开估值，最后加总。\n基于以上，我们亲自来做一下测算，看看特斯拉究竟值多少钱。\n2\n测算\n先看硬件。\n以特斯拉的发展路径，我们选择了两家对比度较高的公司，一个是丰田，另一个是大众，因为这两家公司都是多车型的综合车企，这点和特斯拉较为切合。截取最新的数据，丰田和大众平均每辆车的净利润分别为1.78万、0.9万（人民币），销售量都在1000万的级别，而PE常年在10-15倍的区间浮动。\n套用两家公司的模型，特斯拉硬件部分的估值区间就在1万亿--2.6万亿的区间（单位：人民币，下同，两种PE模型下，均值分别为1.38万亿、2.07万亿。\n\n再说软件。\n美国上市的大型软件公司，微软、Google这些，经营都已经相当成熟，净利润率水平大多在30%左右，PE在30倍左右，可以作为参考指标。\n至于软件业务的净利润，也需要分两种情况，以自动驾驶为例。\n1、买断式。\n现在特斯拉有两种买断式收费模式，以中国为例，基础版3.2万和增强版6.4万（美国的略贵，本次以中国作为参考），假如1000万的销量里，有三种渗透率，对应的利润情况如下。\n\n三大渗透率所对应的估值分别为：\n\n2、订阅式。\n特斯拉的订阅模式现在主要在美国本土推广，有199美元/月（约合15600元人民币/年），假设以此做为参考系，并以丰田的全球保有量做对标，目前全球汽车保有量为14亿辆，参考丰田10%的销售市占率计算，为1.4亿，每年带来的净利润测算如下：\n\n三大净利润所对应的估值分别为：\n\n对软件的估值做一个简单的加总，可以有以下的结论：\n1、三种渗透率所对应的估值区间（平均）在3.59万亿--9.37万亿之间。\n\n2、订阅式所产生的商业价值更大。因为它的计算基础是以每年的保有量，这显然比每年的新车销售多很多，乐观情况下，可以接近10万亿，这也从侧面反映了特斯拉较为热衷推广订阅式的原因。\n最后加总。\n硬件和软件两部分估值（均值）做个统计，结论如下：\n1、特斯拉最小的估值为4.97万亿，最大的估值可以到11.44万亿，按现在的汇率换算成美元，为7775亿—17881亿，均值为12828亿，约等于现在的市值。\n这个结论也可以为特斯拉最终会冲上两万亿市值，复制苹果市值神话提供测算支撑，也从侧面解释了特斯拉在业绩完全无法支撑现在的高估值，但仍然有资金蜂拥而入。\n\n2、相比起硬件，软件的商业价值更高。所以马斯克才拼命地降低车价，因为他明白，让出的这点硬件利润，最后都会软件上几倍几倍地赚回来。\n当然，这个测算过程所设定的参数并不完全精确，因为特斯拉要达到年销售1000万台、保有量1.4亿台，会是很多年以后的事情，而自动驾驶的应用同样如此。\n这个过程快的话得10年，慢的话搞不好要20-30年，加上经济增长、通胀变化、人口增长、汽车销量以及保有量的动态增长、汽车售价以及净利润变化、以及可能出现的汽车产业商业模式的变化等等，当中所要面临的不确定性因素太多，所以这只能算一个不会偏离实际但却相对模糊的参考。\n3\n信仰\n如果说以前买入特斯拉，需要风投般的视死如归精神，那最近一年的买入，则安心很多，因为特斯拉除了节节攀升的交付量，更重要的是，它在盈利和现金流方面都交出了令人满意的答案。加上现在全球都在搞“碳中和”，特斯拉未来的预期，可以说非常的正面，这就是特斯拉信仰。\n除此之外，还有一个重要的支撑原因，那就是特斯拉有“章”可循，这个章，就是传统车企、苹果、微软等等，这些企业为特斯拉提供了对标。\n一般而言，投资最怕的是在无人区瞎碰，因为你不知道前面是万丈深渊还是一路坦途。资本市场对于未知的事物，也很容易犯糊涂，就拿2000年的互联网泡沫来说，那个时候即使是最资深的投资家，对于互联网公司值多少钱这个话题，都没法讲清楚，因为根本没有什么现成的“锚”可供参考。加上流动性充裕，还有三教九流在其中搞鬼，好浑水摸鱼，以至于狂热到如脱缰野马，最后一地鸡毛。\n这一次则不一样，特斯拉能够参考的标的太多了。硬件的、软件的，都不是新鲜事，依靠这些对标物，能够大体知道特斯拉的价值处在什么区间，如果还要算上马斯克这个天才的想象力，未来再搞出什么新花样，那估值说不定还可以继续上扬。\n这就是资金有底气不断往上轰的原因。只有长线增长逻辑没到尽头，每一次看似惊悚的下坠，拉长时间看，只不过是一朵小浪花。那些庆幸躲过一劫的投资者，用不着多久就会被证明是捡了芝麻丢西瓜。\n\n\n对于激进的投资者，特斯拉的每一次回调，都是买入机会。\n著名的特斯拉拥护者“木头姐”曾经发表过深度研究报告，指出特斯拉的价值会上到3万亿美元，比我们上述的估值还要激进，原因在于她的估值模型是基于无人驾驶，这种预测非常超前，是站在颠覆现有汽车业商业模式的基础之上。\n至于对不对，那就见仁见智了，因为无人驾驶还没有出现，用现有的逻辑框架是无法验证的。\n4\n结语\n明明拿了好股票，但就是拿不住，赚了一点小钱就早早下车，错过后面的主升浪。又或者，明明是不行的股票，就是不愿意放手，一路守着虚无缥缈的希望。\n相信这是很多股民的写照，当中的原因，除了各种人性、不成熟投资心理、资金成本作祟外，最重要的一点，就是对未来无法预知。\n这其实也是做投资最难的地方，毕竟没有一个人有水晶球。芒格有句老话：“如果我知道会死在哪里，我就永远不会去那里。”\n不过，投资同样可以通过数量化测算，减少对未来认知的模糊性。\n若实在不想太麻烦，选择长长的坡，厚厚的雪，比什么都重要。现在，新能源就是这样一个长坡，而对于这个坡上的优质股票，最佳策略就是保有一定的底仓，是打死都不能卖，又留有一些筹码做高抛低吸，这样才可以既不错过长期的增值，也能够吃到短期股价波动的红利。最重要的，这种策略可以让躁动的心有一个出口，让管不住的手有发泄的地方。\n回到特斯拉，如果你还想买，基于保守原则，现在并非好机会，因为股价短时间被急剧拉升，风险也在加大。\n但是，如果特斯拉有大的回调，希望你不要错过。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":607892913,"gmtCreate":1639522416433,"gmtModify":1639522416433,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今天吃饱了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天吃饱了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601480099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601376247,"gmtCreate":1638494996135,"gmtModify":1638494996135,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12 pro 换壳就是13","listText":"12 pro 换壳就是13","text":"12 pro 换壳就是13","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601376247","repostId":"2188191715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188191715","pubTimestamp":1638487977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188191715?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 07:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"苹果及供应链股价下跌，传市场对iPhone13系列需求放缓","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188191715","media":"市场资讯","summary":"苹果股价下跌，之前该公司据悉通知零部件供应商，市场对iPhone 13系列的需求放缓。New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu说，“苹果公司对供应商的言论与我们对iPhone 13周期疲软的观点一致，我们认为这个问题不仅与客户对交付延迟不满有关，或许有一定联系，但主要问题是结构性的。”Ferragu是追踪的数据中对苹果给予卖出评级的仅有的两名分析师之一，他预计随着电子消费支出的正常化，2022年iPhone出货量将下降。他认苹果可能在新年发出警告。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>股价下跌，之前该公司据悉通知零部件供应商，市场对iPhone 13系列的需求放缓。</p>\n<p>该股在美国市场开盘时一度下跌4.2%，至157.80，创5月4日以来最大跌幅。供应链公司股票也纷纷下挫，其中Skyworks跌1.3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>跌1.6%。Qorvo一度下跌2.7%，此后才开始回升。欧洲市场，AMS跌5.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">意法半导体</a>跌6%。韩国的LG Innotek在亚洲一度跌13%。</p>\n<p>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu说，“苹果公司对供应商的言论与我们对iPhone 13周期疲软的观点一致，我们认为这个问题不仅与客户对交付延迟不满有关，或许有一定联系，但主要问题是结构性的。”</p>\n<p>Ferragu是追踪的数据中对苹果给予卖出评级的仅有的两名分析师之一，他预计随着电子消费支出的正常化，2022年iPhone出货量将下降。他认苹果可能在新年发出警告。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15466a1abc9c6ab36383480ebb89a0ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>高盛集团的Rod Hall在周报中表示，全球iPhone的交付周期继续缩短，“我们认为这表明供需接近平衡。”</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果及供应链股价下跌，传市场对iPhone13系列需求放缓</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果及供应链股价下跌，传市场对iPhone13系列需求放缓\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 07:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-02/doc-ikyakumx1662611.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>苹果股价下跌，之前该公司据悉通知零部件供应商，市场对iPhone 13系列的需求放缓。\n该股在美国市场开盘时一度下跌4.2%，至157.80，创5月4日以来最大跌幅。供应链公司股票也纷纷下挫，其中Skyworks跌1.3%，高通跌1.6%。Qorvo一度下跌2.7%，此后才开始回升。欧洲市场，AMS跌5.4%，意法半导体跌6%。韩国的LG Innotek在亚洲一度跌13%。\nNew Street ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-02/doc-ikyakumx1662611.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e46ccc58b991451403a7f9c8f23bbbaa","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-02/doc-ikyakumx1662611.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188191715","content_text":"苹果股价下跌，之前该公司据悉通知零部件供应商，市场对iPhone 13系列的需求放缓。\n该股在美国市场开盘时一度下跌4.2%，至157.80，创5月4日以来最大跌幅。供应链公司股票也纷纷下挫，其中Skyworks跌1.3%，高通跌1.6%。Qorvo一度下跌2.7%，此后才开始回升。欧洲市场，AMS跌5.4%，意法半导体跌6%。韩国的LG Innotek在亚洲一度跌13%。\nNew Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu说，“苹果公司对供应商的言论与我们对iPhone 13周期疲软的观点一致，我们认为这个问题不仅与客户对交付延迟不满有关，或许有一定联系，但主要问题是结构性的。”\nFerragu是追踪的数据中对苹果给予卖出评级的仅有的两名分析师之一，他预计随着电子消费支出的正常化，2022年iPhone出货量将下降。他认苹果可能在新年发出警告。\n高盛集团的Rod Hall在周报中表示，全球iPhone的交付周期继续缩短，“我们认为这表明供需接近平衡。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600546507,"gmtCreate":1638179074717,"gmtModify":1638180195801,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>柏林工厂即将启动，上海工厂即将扩建","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>柏林工厂即将启动，上海工厂即将扩建","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$柏林工厂即将启动，上海工厂即将扩建","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600546507","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600159232,"gmtCreate":1638101272564,"gmtModify":1638101272564,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赚钱的好机会","listText":"赚钱的好机会","text":"赚钱的好机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600159232","repostId":"2186328122","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2186328122","pubTimestamp":1638028858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186328122?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-28 00:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉遭“空袭”！国际大行将目标价爆降75％，并全部清仓，嗅到了什么？马斯克仍在大举套现，影响多大？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186328122","media":"券商中国","summary":"在马斯克持续减持的情况下，特斯拉股价正在遭遇挑战。Wind数据显示，截至3季度末，特斯拉共有1654家机构投资者，环比减少19.24%，机构持股总数也下降至1.53亿股，环比减少约61.23%。事实上，由于特斯拉股价今年以来累计上涨58%，马斯克净资产也增加了1000多亿美元。这意味着，在未来12个月内，摩根大通认为特斯拉股价存在下跌超过75%的风险，并建议投资者减持该股。有意思的是，摩根大通还在上周指控特斯拉违反了认股权证协议，要求其赔偿1.62亿美元。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/14234223423/0\"/><p>在马斯克持续减持的情况下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价正在遭遇挑战。</p><p>美国时间周二晚间，SEC公开文件显示，马斯克行使了215万份的股票期权，并以10.5亿美元的价格出手了93.41万股股票，理由是为了满足行使期权的预扣税义务。11月8日以来，马斯克已经出售了约920万股股票，总价值约98.5亿美元。</p><p>而根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>10月21日发布的最新分析师评级，特斯拉在2022年12月的目标价被定为250美元——这大大低于25日1116美元的收盘价。公开数据显示，尽管摩根大通给出的目标价是最悲观的，但华尔街分析师对特斯拉未来12个月平均目标价也仅为799.25美元，相比当前股价存在20%左右的下跌空间。</p><p><strong>此外，据媒体报道，马斯克和摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）一直不和，多年来马斯克一直不待见摩根大通，在扩张特斯拉时选择与其他银行合作，拒绝了摩根大通。</strong></p><p>而值得注意的是，除马斯克本人之外，机构投资者也在悄然从特斯拉撤退。Wind数据显示，截至3季度末，特斯拉共有1654家机构投资者，环比减少19.24%，机构持股总数也下降至1.53亿股，环比减少约61.23%。</p><p>马斯克套现百亿美元</p><p>事情还要从本月的一场网络投票说起。彼时，马斯克在推特上就“是否应该将所持特斯拉股票的10%变现”向网友征求意见。在获得网友的投票支持后，马斯克开始了本轮减持。</p><p>此前在2012年，马斯克获得了2280万股的特斯拉股票期权奖励，执行价为每股6.24美元。这些期权将于明年8月到期，行权获得的收益需支付所得税。但马斯克称，他没有从任何地方拿现金工资或奖金，要支付所得税只能靠出售股票。</p><p>于是自11月8日以来，马斯克已经累计售出约920万股特斯拉股票，价值约为98.5亿美元。马斯克日前进行民意调查时大约持有1.7亿股特斯拉股票，按照10%估算，预计总共将出售1700万股，目前抛售计划已经过半。</p><p>市场观点认为，按照股票出售以及期权行权速度，马斯克可能还需要4周左右来完成所有抛售计划。</p><p>而伴随着马斯克的大笔抛售，特斯拉股价近期也在持续下跌，11月8日至今，特斯拉股价已经累计下跌近9%。行情软件显示，特斯拉股价从11月4日的历史高点1243.49美元，一度<span>跌破</span>1000美元，但上周又开始<span>止跌回升</span>，目前市值已重返1万亿美元以上。</p><p>根据彭博亿万富翁指数，现年50岁的马斯克以超过3000亿美元的财富稳居世界首富宝座。事实上，由于特斯拉股价今年以来累计上涨58%，马斯克净资产也增加了1000多亿美元。</p><p>摩根大通看空特斯拉</p><p>早在马斯克宣布减持之前，华尔街投行就已经释放出了看空特斯拉的信号。</p><p>10月21日，摩根大通发布了一份分析师评级，将特斯拉2022年12月的目标股价定为250美元，大大低于24日1116美元的收盘价。这意味着，在未来12个月内，摩根大通认为特斯拉股价存在下跌超过75%的风险，并建议投资者减持该股。</p><p>据悉，分析师Ryan Brinkman在10月21日的报告中写道，这家汽车制造商拥有“前沿技术”，以及一系列“大胆、独特、优雅、驾驶愉悦”的产品，但特斯拉定价太高，“远远超出”摩根大通的预期。</p><p>摩根大通是这么说，也是这么做的。Wind数据显示，JPMORGAN CHASE &amp; CO自去年四季度起接连减持特斯拉股票，截至今年三季度末，其最高持有的1134万股特斯拉已经全部清仓。</p><p>而彭博数据显示，摩根大通目前250美元的目标股价是所有投行中最悲观的——华尔街分析师12个月平均目标价为799.25美元。</p><p>有意思的是，摩根大通还在上周指控特斯拉违反了<span>认股权证</span>协议，要求其赔偿1.62亿美元。</p><p>摩根大通曾于2014年从特斯拉购买认股权证，该权证于2021年6月、7月到期。此前马斯克准备<span>私有化</span>特斯拉时，摩根大通曾两次调整执行价格，而特斯拉认为此举“过于迅速”和“投机”。</p><p>而在今年合约到期时，特斯拉股价飙升，超过了原价和调整后的价格。摩根大通向特斯拉提出了支付要求，但特斯拉是按照当初的执行价格向摩根大通支付了赔偿金，却拒绝支付调整所需的额外金额。</p><p>机构投资者悄悄撤退</p><p>不止华尔街投行公开看空特斯拉，随着特斯拉股价在今年节节攀升，精明的机构投资者们也早早选择落袋为安。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/14234223424/0\"/><p>Wind数据显示，今年三季度，共有986家机构股东清仓了特斯拉股票，另有333家机构股东进行了减持。以至于在三季度末，特斯拉机构股东数量已从二季度末的2048家减少至1654家，而机构持股总数也从二季度末的3.94亿股减少至1.53亿股，环比下降61.23%。</p><p>总体而言，截至三季度末，仍有三家机构投资者持有超过1000万股以上的特斯拉股票。其中美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">道富银行</a>（STATE STREET CORP）最为激进，共持有3123万股，持有市值高达242亿美元。</p><p>其次是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGUK.UK\">BAILLIE GIFFORD</a> &amp; CO和JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC，分别持有1385万股和1063万股，持有市值约合107.5亿美元和82.5亿美元。值得注意的是，第二大机构投资者BAILLIE GIFFORD &amp; CO自去年四季度起就一直在减持特斯拉股票，持股数量相比于去年三季度末的3470万股，已经减持超过60%。</p><p>责编：汪云鹏</p><p><strong>百万用户都在看</strong></p><p>券商中国是证券市场权威媒体《证券时报》旗下新媒体，券商中国对该平台所刊载的原创内容享有著作权，未经授权禁止转载，否则将追究相应法律责任。</p><p>ID：quanshangcn</p><p>Tips：在券商中国微信号页面输入证券代码、简称即可查看个股行情及最新公告；输入基金代码、简称即可查看<span>基金净值</span>。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉遭“空袭”！国际大行将目标价爆降75％，并全部清仓，嗅到了什么？马斯克仍在大举套现，影响多大？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉遭“空袭”！国际大行将目标价爆降75％，并全部清仓，嗅到了什么？马斯克仍在大举套现，影响多大？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-28 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202111280019417c59bb88&s=b><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在马斯克持续减持的情况下，特斯拉股价正在遭遇挑战。美国时间周二晚间，SEC公开文件显示，马斯克行使了215万份的股票期权，并以10.5亿美元的价格出手了93.41万股股票，理由是为了满足行使期权的预扣税义务。11月8日以来，马斯克已经出售了约920万股股票，总价值约98.5亿美元。而根据摩根大通10月21日发布的最新分析师评级，特斯拉在2022年12月的目标价被定为250美元——这大大低于25日...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202111280019417c59bb88&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775d1226e1a74151383a7d012e179b82","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202111280019417c59bb88&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2186328122","content_text":"在马斯克持续减持的情况下，特斯拉股价正在遭遇挑战。美国时间周二晚间，SEC公开文件显示，马斯克行使了215万份的股票期权，并以10.5亿美元的价格出手了93.41万股股票，理由是为了满足行使期权的预扣税义务。11月8日以来，马斯克已经出售了约920万股股票，总价值约98.5亿美元。而根据摩根大通10月21日发布的最新分析师评级，特斯拉在2022年12月的目标价被定为250美元——这大大低于25日1116美元的收盘价。公开数据显示，尽管摩根大通给出的目标价是最悲观的，但华尔街分析师对特斯拉未来12个月平均目标价也仅为799.25美元，相比当前股价存在20%左右的下跌空间。此外，据媒体报道，马斯克和摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）一直不和，多年来马斯克一直不待见摩根大通，在扩张特斯拉时选择与其他银行合作，拒绝了摩根大通。而值得注意的是，除马斯克本人之外，机构投资者也在悄然从特斯拉撤退。Wind数据显示，截至3季度末，特斯拉共有1654家机构投资者，环比减少19.24%，机构持股总数也下降至1.53亿股，环比减少约61.23%。马斯克套现百亿美元事情还要从本月的一场网络投票说起。彼时，马斯克在推特上就“是否应该将所持特斯拉股票的10%变现”向网友征求意见。在获得网友的投票支持后，马斯克开始了本轮减持。此前在2012年，马斯克获得了2280万股的特斯拉股票期权奖励，执行价为每股6.24美元。这些期权将于明年8月到期，行权获得的收益需支付所得税。但马斯克称，他没有从任何地方拿现金工资或奖金，要支付所得税只能靠出售股票。于是自11月8日以来，马斯克已经累计售出约920万股特斯拉股票，价值约为98.5亿美元。马斯克日前进行民意调查时大约持有1.7亿股特斯拉股票，按照10%估算，预计总共将出售1700万股，目前抛售计划已经过半。市场观点认为，按照股票出售以及期权行权速度，马斯克可能还需要4周左右来完成所有抛售计划。而伴随着马斯克的大笔抛售，特斯拉股价近期也在持续下跌，11月8日至今，特斯拉股价已经累计下跌近9%。行情软件显示，特斯拉股价从11月4日的历史高点1243.49美元，一度跌破1000美元，但上周又开始止跌回升，目前市值已重返1万亿美元以上。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，现年50岁的马斯克以超过3000亿美元的财富稳居世界首富宝座。事实上，由于特斯拉股价今年以来累计上涨58%，马斯克净资产也增加了1000多亿美元。摩根大通看空特斯拉早在马斯克宣布减持之前，华尔街投行就已经释放出了看空特斯拉的信号。10月21日，摩根大通发布了一份分析师评级，将特斯拉2022年12月的目标股价定为250美元，大大低于24日1116美元的收盘价。这意味着，在未来12个月内，摩根大通认为特斯拉股价存在下跌超过75%的风险，并建议投资者减持该股。据悉，分析师Ryan Brinkman在10月21日的报告中写道，这家汽车制造商拥有“前沿技术”，以及一系列“大胆、独特、优雅、驾驶愉悦”的产品，但特斯拉定价太高，“远远超出”摩根大通的预期。摩根大通是这么说，也是这么做的。Wind数据显示，JPMORGAN CHASE & CO自去年四季度起接连减持特斯拉股票，截至今年三季度末，其最高持有的1134万股特斯拉已经全部清仓。而彭博数据显示，摩根大通目前250美元的目标股价是所有投行中最悲观的——华尔街分析师12个月平均目标价为799.25美元。有意思的是，摩根大通还在上周指控特斯拉违反了认股权证协议，要求其赔偿1.62亿美元。摩根大通曾于2014年从特斯拉购买认股权证，该权证于2021年6月、7月到期。此前马斯克准备私有化特斯拉时，摩根大通曾两次调整执行价格，而特斯拉认为此举“过于迅速”和“投机”。而在今年合约到期时，特斯拉股价飙升，超过了原价和调整后的价格。摩根大通向特斯拉提出了支付要求，但特斯拉是按照当初的执行价格向摩根大通支付了赔偿金，却拒绝支付调整所需的额外金额。机构投资者悄悄撤退不止华尔街投行公开看空特斯拉，随着特斯拉股价在今年节节攀升，精明的机构投资者们也早早选择落袋为安。Wind数据显示，今年三季度，共有986家机构股东清仓了特斯拉股票，另有333家机构股东进行了减持。以至于在三季度末，特斯拉机构股东数量已从二季度末的2048家减少至1654家，而机构持股总数也从二季度末的3.94亿股减少至1.53亿股，环比下降61.23%。总体而言，截至三季度末，仍有三家机构投资者持有超过1000万股以上的特斯拉股票。其中美国道富银行（STATE STREET CORP）最为激进，共持有3123万股，持有市值高达242亿美元。其次是BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO和JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC，分别持有1385万股和1063万股，持有市值约合107.5亿美元和82.5亿美元。值得注意的是，第二大机构投资者BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO自去年四季度起就一直在减持特斯拉股票，持股数量相比于去年三季度末的3470万股，已经减持超过60%。责编：汪云鹏百万用户都在看券商中国是证券市场权威媒体《证券时报》旗下新媒体，券商中国对该平台所刊载的原创内容享有著作权，未经授权禁止转载，否则将追究相应法律责任。ID：quanshangcnTips：在券商中国微信号页面输入证券代码、简称即可查看个股行情及最新公告；输入基金代码、简称即可查看基金净值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874957353,"gmtCreate":1637723303636,"gmtModify":1637723303714,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"昨天买了，1120…还是高了","listText":"昨天买了，1120…还是高了","text":"昨天买了，1120…还是高了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874957353","repostId":"1130446298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130446298","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637721416,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130446298?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"文件披露显示马斯克卖出更多特斯拉股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130446298","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。\n据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了2227","content":"<p>特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。</p>\n<p>据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了222711股股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25bb0db16e33cb4b784579049032ac66\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>文件披露显示马斯克卖出更多特斯拉股票</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n文件披露显示马斯克卖出更多特斯拉股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-24 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。</p>\n<p>据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了222711股股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25bb0db16e33cb4b784579049032ac66\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130446298","content_text":"特斯拉(TSLA.O)CEO马斯克在11月23日累计出售特斯拉股份934091股。\n据美国证交会文件：特斯拉CEO马斯克已于11月23日以6.24美元的价格行使215.268份期权，同时出售了222711股股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870889230,"gmtCreate":1636599974639,"gmtModify":1636601789867,"author":{"id":"4098751507564030","authorId":"4098751507564030","name":"马斯克本人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>还好没有手贱在1060的时候下车[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>还好没有手贱在1060的时候下车[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$还好没有手贱在1060的时候下车[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870889230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}