巴菲特的宵夜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

巴菲特的宵夜

巴菲特的宵夜

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IP属地：浙江

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5主题

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巴菲特的宵夜

2022-09-16

$RLX科技(RLX)$没买，但总觉得会跟那气候一块钱的蔚来一样。预测一波。

巴菲特的宵夜

2022-10-01

$RLX科技(RLX)$准备动手准备动手

巴菲特的宵夜

2022-10-12

$RLX科技(RLX)$新烟弹过审才值得买，在这瞎起哄

巴菲特的宵夜

01-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 没有为什么，就是因为马斯克还没卖股票

巴菲特的宵夜

2022-10-25

$RLX科技(RLX)$来咯来咯，小飞棍来咯

巴菲特的宵夜

2022-10-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$11点，看戏

巴菲特的宵夜

04-29

截图截一半，6 啊

特斯拉中国官方的FSD购买页面描述改为“即将推出”

巴菲特的宵夜

04-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 你们先买，我觉得落地 6 个小时解除禁令已经是给面子了。再把 fsd 落地，是把中国路面信息拿去哪学习？国企可能性高，特斯拉还不是亲儿子大家先冲，祝大家埋在山脚。

巴菲特的宵夜

2022-10-07

$海天味业(603288)$不抓这种卖国企业去打靶？

巴菲特的宵夜

2022-09-28

$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$何小鹏成功套牢了自己

巴菲特的宵夜

2022-09-05

宝马可拉倒吧

干掉宝马之前，蔚来决定先干掉自己

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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17:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一，特斯拉盘前涨幅扩大至7%！中国官方的FSD购买页面描述由“稍后推出”改为“即将推出”。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc30e420474165dcfdedd79f0ef2657\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"127\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290a926943b005684050ecac00a4d851\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"442\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8806c00394949b847f7006c786c22729","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190469068","content_text":"周一，特斯拉盘前涨幅扩大至7%！中国官方的FSD购买页面描述由“稍后推出”改为“即将推出”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300494619021608,"gmtCreate":1714382462297,"gmtModify":1714382464418,"author":{"id":"4087781366898670","authorId":"4087781366898670","name":"巴菲特的宵夜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca8d43ad73ed468abfef4c1aba0c9af","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 你们先买，我觉得落地 6 个小时解除禁令已经是给面子了。 再把 fsd 落地，是把中国路面信息拿去哪学习？ 国企可能性高，特斯拉还不是亲儿子 大家先冲，祝大家埋在山脚。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 你们先买，我觉得落地 6 个小时解除禁令已经是给面子了。 再把 fsd 落地，是把中国路面信息拿去哪学习？ 国企可能性高，特斯拉还不是亲儿子 大家先冲，祝大家埋在山脚。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 你们先买，我觉得落地 6 个小时解除禁令已经是给面子了。 再把 fsd 落地，是把中国路面信息拿去哪学习？ 国企可能性高，特斯拉还不是亲儿子 大家先冲，祝大家埋在山脚。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300494619021608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":259191558246632,"gmtCreate":1704309166672,"gmtModify":1704340537104,"author":{"id":"4087781366898670","authorId":"4087781366898670","name":"巴菲特的宵夜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca8d43ad73ed468abfef4c1aba0c9af","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">$海天味业(603288)$</a>不抓这种卖国企业去打靶？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">$海天味业(603288)$</a>不抓这种卖国企业去打靶？","text":"$海天味业(603288)$不抓这种卖国企业去打靶？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668701964","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668998238,"gmtCreate":1664350976224,"gmtModify":1664352366940,"author":{"id":"4087781366898670","authorId":"4087781366898670","name":"巴菲特的宵夜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca8d43ad73ed468abfef4c1aba0c9af","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$</a>何小鹏成功套牢了自己","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$</a>何小鹏成功套牢了自己","text":"$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$何小鹏成功套牢了自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668998238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669633323,"gmtCreate":1662369117362,"gmtModify":1662369237708,"author":{"id":"4087781366898670","authorId":"4087781366898670","name":"巴菲特的宵夜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca8d43ad73ed468abfef4c1aba0c9af","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"宝马可拉倒吧","listText":"宝马可拉倒吧","text":"宝马可拉倒吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669633323","repostId":"2265395777","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2265395777","pubTimestamp":1662367464,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2265395777?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-05 16:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"干掉宝马之前，蔚来决定先干掉自己","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265395777","media":"虎嗅","summary":"无论是自己抑或同行，人总得有个对手","content":"<html><body><p><span label=\"序列备注\">出品丨虎嗅汽车组</span></p><p><span label=\"序列备注\">作者丨周到</span></p><p><span label=\"序列备注\">编辑丨张博文</span></p><p><span label=\"序列备注\">头图丨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span></p><p>曾经低调的汽车行业，如今却完全不缺乏豪言壮语。从西方到东方，你很难说这回到底是哪阵风压倒了谁。</p><p><strong>在这方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>一贯都是一把“放卫星”的好手。</strong></p><p>8月26日的成都车展上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>总裁秦力洪再次立了个FLAG：新车ET5将在交付一年后，月销量超过宝马3系。</p><p>无论从任何角度来说，蔚来这颗卫星放得都有点太大了。纵观蔚来过去交付量总和的巅峰，最高的一个月才有12961辆。要知道，这还是该公司旗下4款车（ET7、ES8、ES6、EC6）交付量的总和。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/04/215542112246.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p>相比之下，宝马3系显然是座难以逾越的山峰。这辆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>品牌在中国市场中的B级轿车标杆及时在中国汽车市场最艰难的4月份，单车销量也比蔚来全系高出2000多辆。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/04/215919842801.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p>当然了，按照秦力洪一贯的风格，他一定会给蔚来的“大话”加上一系列限定语：</p><blockquote><p>“平均下来，宝马3系一个月的销量大多在1.2-1.5万辆，ET5在一年后也会维持这个水平。我们给到全国的蔚来营销经理的，都是这个明确目标。<strong>当然，有可能是蔚来多了，宝马也没少。</strong>”</p><p>“接下来的半年内，唯一的悬念是ET5的产量爬坡速度。我们的ET5产多少，就会交多少。”</p></blockquote><p>那么问题来了：既然蔚来自己假定宝马3系没少，ET5的销量多了，那么谁被干掉了呢？</p><p>显然，这个答案得在ET5稳定交付以后再说。<strong>但目前能看到的是，蔚来已经把自己给“干掉”了。</strong></p><p label=\"大标题\">蔚来的阳谋</p><p>相比较4季度才交付的ET5，我们先看看刚刚8月28日刚刚开始交付的新车ES7。根据蔚来官方公布的销量数据，在8月最后的4天里ES7一共交付了398辆。相比较之前公布的所有车型，这款6月发布9月就交付的新车，尽管已经创下了蔚来车型从发布到交付的时间最短记录，但获得的关注似乎是最少的。</p><p>另外，这款车的价格和配置，笔者此前在《拧巴的蔚来新车，小心翼翼的李斌》一文中曾有过分析，与其自家价格更低的ES6之间形成了倒挂，妥妥的左右手互博，完全违背了汽车行业的规律。对于这个问题，秦力洪对笔者进行了回应。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/05/015449630185.jpeg?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/jpeg/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">蔚来ES7</p><p>“ES7的上市对自家866（ES8、ES6、EC6）阵营是有一定冲击的。<strong>但你不冲击自己，就得被别人冲击。</strong>”秦力洪说道，“任何车型产品都有自己的生命周期，866三款车明显就在生命周期的后半段。我们是在用ES7来丰富自家的SUV产品线。”</p><p>诚然，在标配了高级别辅助驾驶、激光雷达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>Orin X芯片和多个大尺寸中控屏的理想L9和即将上市的小鹏G9面前，在2015年就完成了产品定义的866是相对落后的。尽管蔚来在6月发布了866搭载<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>8155座舱芯片的改款车型，但整车平台的落后让其在硬件层面无法进行更大程度的升级。</p><p>更不用说，以采用直销体系的造车新势力们一旦对现有产品大幅度的更新换代，必然会导致潜在车主的持币观望，以及近期提车的新车主们愤怒。这点在理想和小鹏近期销量环比下滑乃至腰斩上就能看到，详情可以参考虎嗅汽车昨天的文章《理想和小鹏，被自家新车坑惨了》。尤其是后者的愤怒所引发的反噬，不仅会大大削弱既有车主“老带新”的积极性，还会带来广泛的“退车/退款”维权活动。</p><p>而一向以“用户企业”自居的蔚来，则直接开创了产品换代的新赛道：给既有的产品序列中塞进一个看似“左右手互博”的新车型，然后稳住自己在这一细分市场的基本盘。对于866的老车主，蔚来不仅没有官方降价，还提供了8155芯片、360环视摄像头和5G网卡的硬件升级方案。这一系列动作看似抖了个大机灵，实际上背后少不了对用户心理的充分洞察，完善的研发体系，以及充沛的资源投入所提供的支撑。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/05/015517318425.jpeg?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/jpeg/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">2022款的蔚来“866”。有些粗心的读者可能觉得外观上没区别，实际上：就是没区别</p><p>对于这个判断，我们从秦力洪的采访中也得到了验证。“对我们来说，ES7的上市+866新款切换新组合的目标，就是加起来能稳住此前的销量，甚至更多。”他表示，在既有的SUV车型之外，新的增长责任主要落在ET7和ET5身上。“接下来，蔚来接下来将在短期内呈现大家看得到的增长曲线。”</p><p>当然，蔚来的产品迭代策略也不是完全的八面玲珑。比如这次发布的AR眼镜设备，就明确了只有ES7、ET7和ET5等基于NT 2.0平台打造的新车才能适配。老的866车型无论是否升级到了搭载8155芯片的“Alder·赤杨”系统，都用不上AR眼镜。</p><p><strong>这就让才成为EC6车主满1年的笔者不太高兴了。</strong></p><p>对此，秦力洪给出了两个方案：第一，他们正在研究在EC6上使用AR眼镜时，可以联动车载音响。</p><p>第二，“你可以换车嘛，我们的二手车服务也是非常不错的。”</p><p>是啊，届时我们又可以好好聊聊二手电动车的残值问题了呢。</p><p label=\"大标题\">“李斌忙着研发，而我忙着迭代”</p><p>出完了“好主意”，秦力洪又严肃地表示，蔚来会在硬件允许的范畴内尽量带着每位用户走，为其提供软件乃至硬件的升级方案，但不会一直这么做下去，毕竟客观条件不允许。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/05/020338084386.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">蔚来联合创始人、总裁 秦力洪</p><p>秦力洪透露，对于今后一年的蔚来而言，主要的工作都是产品迭代。事实上，这件事不光对于蔚来，小鹏和理想的注销车型P7、理想ONE都将在近期迎来换代。这两款分别在2020年4月和2019年12月开始交付的车型，在技术层面和蔚来的866不相上下，都是2017年乃至更早时期完成的基础技术架构定义。</p><p>而在这个档口，越来越多的信息也都传了出来。据称，小鹏P7即将发布的新款也将入P5一样搭载激光雷达，理想则将停产“功勋车型”理想ONE，将新品命名为理想L8，纳入以“L”为命名的产品序列。</p><p>在疫情防控政策以及地缘政治等复杂因素的影响下，供应链、生产制造以及测试等环节的不确定性正在困扰着每一个车企。而很多人忽略的是，既有车型的软件维护也成为了考验车企产品和技术迭代能力的关键问题。简单来说，一辆传统燃油车只要按时按需保养，就能安稳运转许多年。而一辆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动车如果不能持续获得软件更新，不光会丧失车企长期标榜的“持续生长能力”，甚至因为软件出现的漏洞造成车机屏卡顿乃至黑屏，甚至遭遇黑客攻击引发信息安全事件。</p><p><strong>毕竟，产品能够实现“智能”的原因，是其能够得到厂商持续的维护和支持。一旦丧失这些，那么一款智能设备就真的“死而不僵”了。</strong></p><p>在这件事上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>就做的很好。在该公司官网上我们看到，目前其仍然在对2017年9月上市的iPhone 8进行软件维护。相比之下，笔者在一家国内知名安卓手机的官网看到，其官方系统能够维护的机型最老只到2019年10月的一款，类似的情况在安卓阵营中相当普遍。也许，这也是为何苹果的二手手机更能卖出高价的原因。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/05/015644429828.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">苹果IOS系统能够继续维护的手机硬件</p><p>但是，想在智能汽车领域复刻智能手机的软件维护思路显然是不合适的。毕竟后者的更换周期是前者的五到十倍乃至更多。因此，车企需要在集团战略高度的层面提前做好规划。</p><p>据了解，蔚来目前推出的3套软件版本，分别是老款866搭载的Aspen·白杨，新款866的Alder·赤杨，以及ES7、ET7和ET5的Banyan·榕。这三者依托不同的硬件平台，分别由不同的软件团队负责更新和维护。可见，蔚来在产品定义之初便尽可能缩减硬件种类和版本数量，以便控制维护成本。</p><p><strong>毕竟，电动车从后市场可不像燃油车能卖保养和零部件，根本赚不了几个钱。</strong></p><p>“软件版本维护和迭代时间长了，比硬件成本还高。以一辆车的退出周期15年计算，蔚来现在基本是每季度一个版本，15年少说40个版本，多了在60个以上。”秦力洪对此说道。这也是为何蔚来在NT 2.0车型上少了诸如智能驾驶的选装模块，并为每个车型都搭载了激光雷达，无论这个用户是否会在未来订阅L4自动驾驶服务。</p><p>“这也就是我这一年主要忙的事情。李斌忙着研发，而我忙着迭代。”秦力洪最后说道，“蔚来过去经常被人cue交付量落后了，实际上是我们率先进入了弯道。接下来就是蔚来出弯的过程，我们的速度会回来。”</p><p label=\"大标题\">想学苹果的车企，又多了一个</p><p>在这次交流中，笔者还向秦力洪问起了蔚来新品牌，内部代号“阿尔卑斯”的最新进展。对此，秦力洪除了再次介绍了诸如“主打20-30万元市场”、“品牌独立于蔚来”、“能换电，服务更好”等老消息之外，第一次表示该品牌的定位就是做“服务更好、能换电”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。“毕竟，特斯拉距离蔚来的用户已经很远了，双方产品的平均开票价已经差出10万元以上，这相当于好几个细分市场。”</p><p>但是，尽管阿尔卑斯已经早在多年前就开始规划，但秦力洪也承认其2024年新车发布的时间点没赶上今年20-30万元电动车市场的大爆发。而据笔者了解，该品牌目前的进展远没有蔚来当年迅速，其中无论是团队还是品牌，以及车型和技术都有大量工作需要推进。</p><p><strong>也许，其CEO——前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>大中华区总经理艾铁成还需要和李斌一样，需要在汽车行业经历更多学习和历练？</strong></p><p>但是，中国汽车市场轰隆前进的车轮并不会因为某家企业的动态哪怕有一刻的停转，蔚来也在围绕着2025年的中国车市进行布局。秦力洪表示，如此前李斌所说的，中国乃至全球高端汽车市场，“三分天下有蔚来”的目标依旧是企业的长期目标。为此，蔚来也在积极布局海外市场，今年将在欧洲的德国、丹麦、瑞典、挪威和荷兰5过交付，2023年下半年开始下一批国家的拓展。</p><p>不过他也坦言，中国汽车市场已经注定是存量市场。“每年两千多万辆新车，也不会有三千万的事。如果没有灾难性的变化，也不会出现1500万辆的情况。”<strong>而在这长期每年不到三千万辆新车的市场中，蔚来要做一家怎样的公司？是否有自己的参照系呢？</strong></p><p>对此秦力洪谈了个人判断。他认为在做电动车这件事上，特斯拉是福特。就像20世纪初的福特一样，马斯克执掌的特斯拉在用自动化生产线、超级快充和智能技术，尽可能降低整车价格门槛，让电力取代化石能源，让更多人开得起、愿意开电动车。而蔚来的目标是做电动汽车的苹果。“首先产品要做好，涉及、硬件、软件、服务和生态一体化。”</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/05/020640736570.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/jpg/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p>你瞧瞧，大家光记得理想把乔布斯和苹果当教师爷，而很多时候把蔚来给忘了。</p><p label=\"大标题\">写在最后：</p><p>想学乔布斯和苹果的企业很多。设计、产品、UI、交互乃至领导人穿着，这几年无论是真情致敬还是邯郸学步，我们都看了太多太多。但大家总是容易忽略，乔布斯和苹果取得成功的开始，到底是因为什么？</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202209/05/020514165650.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/jpg/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">这款产品你们还记得吗？</p><p>在笔者看来，是Itunes音乐商店和iPod。在此之前，北美乃至欧洲用户要听数字音乐，往往要到不同的平台乃至唱片公司购买不同格式和标准的资源，版权方也深受盗版猖獗的困扰。而这时，苹果音乐商店横空出世，搭配了堪称艺术品的iPod音乐播放器，在提供了革命性数字音乐出版和交易平台的同时，带来了前所未有的用户体验。</p><p>解决用户乃至行业痛点，创造新的需求和使用场景，提供超出行业平均水平的软硬件体验，搭建富有生命力生态……笔者认为，只有全面打卡了这一切成就，一家公司才可能拥有和苹果比肩的基础。</p><p>当然，还少不了创始人的天才与战略眼光。</p><p>蔚来是不是这样一家公司？目前来看，肯定说不好。但其在战略层面的思考和落地产品，起码显示出该公司正在往苹果的方向迈进。当然了，要走多远谁，要过多久，咱们还得拭目以待。</p><p><strong>也许，在车上用AR这件事，蔚来能给我们一些惊喜？</strong></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>干掉宝马之前，蔚来决定先干掉自己</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n干掉宝马之前，蔚来决定先干掉自己\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-05 16:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/653418.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>出品丨虎嗅汽车组作者丨周到编辑丨张博文头图丨视觉中国曾经低调的汽车行业，如今却完全不缺乏豪言壮语。从西方到东方，你很难说这回到底是哪阵风压倒了谁。在这方面，蔚来一贯都是一把“放卫星”的好手。8月26日的成都车展上，蔚来总裁秦力洪再次立了个FLAG：新车ET5将在交付一年后，月销量超过宝马3系。无论从任何角度来说，蔚来这颗卫星放得都有点太大了。纵观蔚来过去交付量总和的巅峰，最高的一个月才有12961...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/653418.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/cover/202209/05/020149462534.jpg?imageView2/1/w/720/h/405/|imageMogr2/strip/interlace/1/quality/85/format/jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK1588":"回港中概股","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/653418.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265395777","content_text":"出品丨虎嗅汽车组作者丨周到编辑丨张博文头图丨视觉中国曾经低调的汽车行业，如今却完全不缺乏豪言壮语。从西方到东方，你很难说这回到底是哪阵风压倒了谁。在这方面，蔚来一贯都是一把“放卫星”的好手。8月26日的成都车展上，蔚来总裁秦力洪再次立了个FLAG：新车ET5将在交付一年后，月销量超过宝马3系。无论从任何角度来说，蔚来这颗卫星放得都有点太大了。纵观蔚来过去交付量总和的巅峰，最高的一个月才有12961辆。要知道，这还是该公司旗下4款车（ET7、ES8、ES6、EC6）交付量的总和。相比之下，宝马3系显然是座难以逾越的山峰。这辆豪华品牌在中国市场中的B级轿车标杆及时在中国汽车市场最艰难的4月份，单车销量也比蔚来全系高出2000多辆。当然了，按照秦力洪一贯的风格，他一定会给蔚来的“大话”加上一系列限定语：“平均下来，宝马3系一个月的销量大多在1.2-1.5万辆，ET5在一年后也会维持这个水平。我们给到全国的蔚来营销经理的，都是这个明确目标。当然，有可能是蔚来多了，宝马也没少。”“接下来的半年内，唯一的悬念是ET5的产量爬坡速度。我们的ET5产多少，就会交多少。”那么问题来了：既然蔚来自己假定宝马3系没少，ET5的销量多了，那么谁被干掉了呢？显然，这个答案得在ET5稳定交付以后再说。但目前能看到的是，蔚来已经把自己给“干掉”了。蔚来的阳谋相比较4季度才交付的ET5，我们先看看刚刚8月28日刚刚开始交付的新车ES7。根据蔚来官方公布的销量数据，在8月最后的4天里ES7一共交付了398辆。相比较之前公布的所有车型，这款6月发布9月就交付的新车，尽管已经创下了蔚来车型从发布到交付的时间最短记录，但获得的关注似乎是最少的。另外，这款车的价格和配置，笔者此前在《拧巴的蔚来新车，小心翼翼的李斌》一文中曾有过分析，与其自家价格更低的ES6之间形成了倒挂，妥妥的左右手互博，完全违背了汽车行业的规律。对于这个问题，秦力洪对笔者进行了回应。蔚来ES7“ES7的上市对自家866（ES8、ES6、EC6）阵营是有一定冲击的。但你不冲击自己，就得被别人冲击。”秦力洪说道，“任何车型产品都有自己的生命周期，866三款车明显就在生命周期的后半段。我们是在用ES7来丰富自家的SUV产品线。”诚然，在标配了高级别辅助驾驶、激光雷达和英伟达Orin X芯片和多个大尺寸中控屏的理想L9和即将上市的小鹏G9面前，在2015年就完成了产品定义的866是相对落后的。尽管蔚来在6月发布了866搭载高通8155座舱芯片的改款车型，但整车平台的落后让其在硬件层面无法进行更大程度的升级。更不用说，以采用直销体系的造车新势力们一旦对现有产品大幅度的更新换代，必然会导致潜在车主的持币观望，以及近期提车的新车主们愤怒。这点在理想和小鹏近期销量环比下滑乃至腰斩上就能看到，详情可以参考虎嗅汽车昨天的文章《理想和小鹏，被自家新车坑惨了》。尤其是后者的愤怒所引发的反噬，不仅会大大削弱既有车主“老带新”的积极性，还会带来广泛的“退车/退款”维权活动。而一向以“用户企业”自居的蔚来，则直接开创了产品换代的新赛道：给既有的产品序列中塞进一个看似“左右手互博”的新车型，然后稳住自己在这一细分市场的基本盘。对于866的老车主，蔚来不仅没有官方降价，还提供了8155芯片、360环视摄像头和5G网卡的硬件升级方案。这一系列动作看似抖了个大机灵，实际上背后少不了对用户心理的充分洞察，完善的研发体系，以及充沛的资源投入所提供的支撑。2022款的蔚来“866”。有些粗心的读者可能觉得外观上没区别，实际上：就是没区别对于这个判断，我们从秦力洪的采访中也得到了验证。“对我们来说，ES7的上市+866新款切换新组合的目标，就是加起来能稳住此前的销量，甚至更多。”他表示，在既有的SUV车型之外，新的增长责任主要落在ET7和ET5身上。“接下来，蔚来接下来将在短期内呈现大家看得到的增长曲线。”当然，蔚来的产品迭代策略也不是完全的八面玲珑。比如这次发布的AR眼镜设备，就明确了只有ES7、ET7和ET5等基于NT 2.0平台打造的新车才能适配。老的866车型无论是否升级到了搭载8155芯片的“Alder·赤杨”系统，都用不上AR眼镜。这就让才成为EC6车主满1年的笔者不太高兴了。对此，秦力洪给出了两个方案：第一，他们正在研究在EC6上使用AR眼镜时，可以联动车载音响。第二，“你可以换车嘛，我们的二手车服务也是非常不错的。”是啊，届时我们又可以好好聊聊二手电动车的残值问题了呢。“李斌忙着研发，而我忙着迭代”出完了“好主意”，秦力洪又严肃地表示，蔚来会在硬件允许的范畴内尽量带着每位用户走，为其提供软件乃至硬件的升级方案，但不会一直这么做下去，毕竟客观条件不允许。蔚来联合创始人、总裁 秦力洪秦力洪透露，对于今后一年的蔚来而言，主要的工作都是产品迭代。事实上，这件事不光对于蔚来，小鹏和理想的注销车型P7、理想ONE都将在近期迎来换代。这两款分别在2020年4月和2019年12月开始交付的车型，在技术层面和蔚来的866不相上下，都是2017年乃至更早时期完成的基础技术架构定义。而在这个档口，越来越多的信息也都传了出来。据称，小鹏P7即将发布的新款也将入P5一样搭载激光雷达，理想则将停产“功勋车型”理想ONE，将新品命名为理想L8，纳入以“L”为命名的产品序列。在疫情防控政策以及地缘政治等复杂因素的影响下，供应链、生产制造以及测试等环节的不确定性正在困扰着每一个车企。而很多人忽略的是，既有车型的软件维护也成为了考验车企产品和技术迭代能力的关键问题。简单来说，一辆传统燃油车只要按时按需保养，就能安稳运转许多年。而一辆智能电动车如果不能持续获得软件更新，不光会丧失车企长期标榜的“持续生长能力”，甚至因为软件出现的漏洞造成车机屏卡顿乃至黑屏，甚至遭遇黑客攻击引发信息安全事件。毕竟，产品能够实现“智能”的原因，是其能够得到厂商持续的维护和支持。一旦丧失这些，那么一款智能设备就真的“死而不僵”了。在这件事上，苹果就做的很好。在该公司官网上我们看到，目前其仍然在对2017年9月上市的iPhone 8进行软件维护。相比之下，笔者在一家国内知名安卓手机的官网看到，其官方系统能够维护的机型最老只到2019年10月的一款，类似的情况在安卓阵营中相当普遍。也许，这也是为何苹果的二手手机更能卖出高价的原因。苹果IOS系统能够继续维护的手机硬件但是，想在智能汽车领域复刻智能手机的软件维护思路显然是不合适的。毕竟后者的更换周期是前者的五到十倍乃至更多。因此，车企需要在集团战略高度的层面提前做好规划。据了解，蔚来目前推出的3套软件版本，分别是老款866搭载的Aspen·白杨，新款866的Alder·赤杨，以及ES7、ET7和ET5的Banyan·榕。这三者依托不同的硬件平台，分别由不同的软件团队负责更新和维护。可见，蔚来在产品定义之初便尽可能缩减硬件种类和版本数量，以便控制维护成本。毕竟，电动车从后市场可不像燃油车能卖保养和零部件，根本赚不了几个钱。“软件版本维护和迭代时间长了，比硬件成本还高。以一辆车的退出周期15年计算，蔚来现在基本是每季度一个版本，15年少说40个版本，多了在60个以上。”秦力洪对此说道。这也是为何蔚来在NT 2.0车型上少了诸如智能驾驶的选装模块，并为每个车型都搭载了激光雷达，无论这个用户是否会在未来订阅L4自动驾驶服务。“这也就是我这一年主要忙的事情。李斌忙着研发，而我忙着迭代。”秦力洪最后说道，“蔚来过去经常被人cue交付量落后了，实际上是我们率先进入了弯道。接下来就是蔚来出弯的过程，我们的速度会回来。”想学苹果的车企，又多了一个在这次交流中，笔者还向秦力洪问起了蔚来新品牌，内部代号“阿尔卑斯”的最新进展。对此，秦力洪除了再次介绍了诸如“主打20-30万元市场”、“品牌独立于蔚来”、“能换电，服务更好”等老消息之外，第一次表示该品牌的定位就是做“服务更好、能换电”的特斯拉。“毕竟，特斯拉距离蔚来的用户已经很远了，双方产品的平均开票价已经差出10万元以上，这相当于好几个细分市场。”但是，尽管阿尔卑斯已经早在多年前就开始规划，但秦力洪也承认其2024年新车发布的时间点没赶上今年20-30万元电动车市场的大爆发。而据笔者了解，该品牌目前的进展远没有蔚来当年迅速，其中无论是团队还是品牌，以及车型和技术都有大量工作需要推进。也许，其CEO——前WeWork大中华区总经理艾铁成还需要和李斌一样，需要在汽车行业经历更多学习和历练？但是，中国汽车市场轰隆前进的车轮并不会因为某家企业的动态哪怕有一刻的停转，蔚来也在围绕着2025年的中国车市进行布局。秦力洪表示，如此前李斌所说的，中国乃至全球高端汽车市场，“三分天下有蔚来”的目标依旧是企业的长期目标。为此，蔚来也在积极布局海外市场，今年将在欧洲的德国、丹麦、瑞典、挪威和荷兰5过交付，2023年下半年开始下一批国家的拓展。不过他也坦言，中国汽车市场已经注定是存量市场。“每年两千多万辆新车，也不会有三千万的事。如果没有灾难性的变化，也不会出现1500万辆的情况。”而在这长期每年不到三千万辆新车的市场中，蔚来要做一家怎样的公司？是否有自己的参照系呢？对此秦力洪谈了个人判断。他认为在做电动车这件事上，特斯拉是福特。就像20世纪初的福特一样，马斯克执掌的特斯拉在用自动化生产线、超级快充和智能技术，尽可能降低整车价格门槛，让电力取代化石能源，让更多人开得起、愿意开电动车。而蔚来的目标是做电动汽车的苹果。“首先产品要做好，涉及、硬件、软件、服务和生态一体化。”你瞧瞧，大家光记得理想把乔布斯和苹果当教师爷，而很多时候把蔚来给忘了。写在最后：想学乔布斯和苹果的企业很多。设计、产品、UI、交互乃至领导人穿着，这几年无论是真情致敬还是邯郸学步，我们都看了太多太多。但大家总是容易忽略，乔布斯和苹果取得成功的开始，到底是因为什么？这款产品你们还记得吗？在笔者看来，是Itunes音乐商店和iPod。在此之前，北美乃至欧洲用户要听数字音乐，往往要到不同的平台乃至唱片公司购买不同格式和标准的资源，版权方也深受盗版猖獗的困扰。而这时，苹果音乐商店横空出世，搭配了堪称艺术品的iPod音乐播放器，在提供了革命性数字音乐出版和交易平台的同时，带来了前所未有的用户体验。解决用户乃至行业痛点，创造新的需求和使用场景，提供超出行业平均水平的软硬件体验，搭建富有生命力生态……笔者认为，只有全面打卡了这一切成就，一家公司才可能拥有和苹果比肩的基础。当然，还少不了创始人的天才与战略眼光。蔚来是不是这样一家公司？目前来看，肯定说不好。但其在战略层面的思考和落地产品，起码显示出该公司正在往苹果的方向迈进。当然了，要走多远谁，要过多久，咱们还得拭目以待。也许，在车上用AR这件事，蔚来能给我们一些惊喜？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}