forex的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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IP属地：天津

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0勋章

2023-12-05

$AFRM 20240119 20.0 CALL$ 完犊子了，🩲没有了

2022-10-03

$苹果(AAPL)$反弹也不敢买了留点资金。因为要给加息结束后的降息逻辑来做多

2022-10-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$终究是股民扛下了所有

2021-03-13

$亿邦国际(EBON)$果然行情来到了矿机这个货消息其实是交易所矿机性能排10名开外

2021-03-11

$白银ETF(iShares)(SLV)$赌一把

2021-02-28

$Fisker Inc.(FSR)$熊市之际这个股还有点肉不容易

2021-02-22

$First Majestic Silver Corporation(AG)$首次开仓跟上节奏

2021-02-20

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$平仓2手先感谢美联储。剩下的明年一月平仓

2021-02-12

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$经历过洗礼方才明白做时间的炮友是多么的痛苦和幸福

2021-02-09

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$干就完了继续耐心持有

2021-01-08

一季度美股大概率会上涨

2021-01-08

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$坚持耐心

2020-12-03

$Snowflake(SNOW)$吊炸天就是这个股代名词

2020-11-15

瞎扯淡

遭做空！谁在戳破造车泡沫：4000亿市值的蔚来，189亿现金的理想

2020-07-30

就tmd的10股兄弟们还担心破发还是不破发真是蛋疼

2020-07-20

$吉利德科学(GILD)$ 你大爷的割肉了你就涨

2019-03-08

$Adobe(ADBE)$ 别崩着了赶紧跌吧，多难受啊

2019-02-25

$百度(BIDU)$ 今天晚上这个辣鸡能涨3个点吗真是服了狗了

2019-02-05

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 云计算🈶️下跌的吗这货

2019-01-31

$微软(MSFT)$ 这货盘前难道想逆袭开盘后106的call 低位可以buy下博反弹

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>吊炸天就是这个股代名词","text":"$Snowflake(SNOW)$吊炸天就是这个股代名词","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396995128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307976437,"gmtCreate":1605435495029,"gmtModify":1703837715119,"author":{"id":"38136444741210","authorId":"38136444741210","name":"forex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a960e6e163bd03e43eea4b3b5796da53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"瞎扯淡","listText":"瞎扯淡","text":"瞎扯淡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307976437","repostId":"2083484051","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2083484051","pubTimestamp":1605425265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2083484051?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-15 15:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"遭做空！谁在戳破造车泡沫：4000亿市值的蔚来，189亿现金的理想","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2083484051","media":"新浪科技综合","summary":"谁在戳破造车泡沫：4000亿市值的蔚来，189亿现金的理想，毛利率转正的小鹏 | 撩车来源：创业邦作者：若然 大湿兄中概股的噩梦又来了？在11月12日，小鹏汽车公布第三季度财报。次日，理想汽车也公布上市后首份财报，而蔚来将于下周的11月17日公布最新财报。从目前已上交的成绩单来看，小鹏汽车与理想汽车都交出了亮眼的数据。小鹏汽车今年上半年实现营收10.03亿元，不仅与蔚来和理想差距明显，而且同比下降18.6%。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：遭做空！谁在戳破造车泡沫：4000亿市值的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>，189亿现金的理想，毛利率转正的小鹏 | 撩车</p><p>来源：创业邦</p><p>作者：若然 大湿兄</p><p><font><font><font>中概股的噩梦又来了？</font></font></font></p><p><font>这次是中国的新造车势力。美国当地时间11月13日，香橼研究公司（Citron Research）针对蔚来汽车，连续发布了做空的推文和报告，认为蔚来股价只值25美元，仅为当时股价53美元的一半，堪称拦腰折断。</font></p><p><font>曾发布150多份做空报告，把7家公司“干”退市的<font>香橼</font>，这次出手直接引发三家新造车美股上市公司的股价崩盘。</font></p><p><font>13日美股，蔚来收跌近8%，盘后继续再跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>收跌6.13%，盘后下挫3.19%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>收跌1.83%，盘后下挫2.56%。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/transform/58/w550h308/20201115/226f-kcysmrv6269434.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>蔚来、理想汽车、小鹏汽车股价情况（来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>）</span></div><p><font>截止11月13日收盘，蔚来最新市值为605.8亿美元（约3994亿人民币），小鹏汽车市值为291.5亿美元（约1922亿人民币），理想汽车市值为260.9亿美元（1720亿人民币），三者市值之和达到1158.2亿美元（约7636亿人民币）。</font></p><p><font>但即便是受到做空的影响，<font>三家新势力上市公司的市值，依然超过美国三大车企</font>（通用市值为约为3887亿元、福特市值约为2240亿元、菲亚特克莱斯勒市值约为1501亿元）的市值之和。</font></p><p><font><font><font>新造车企业，到底有没有真材实料？</font></font></font></p><p><font>在11月12日，小鹏汽车公布第三季度财报。次日，理想汽车也公布上市后首份财报，而蔚来将于下周的11月17日公布最新财报。从目前已上交的成绩单来看，小鹏汽车与理想汽车都交出了亮眼的数据。这也使得，在财报电话会上两家公司的CEO都表现出极度的自信。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/760/w550h210/20201115/b24d-kcysmrv6266200.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>蔚来汽车CEO李斌、理想汽车CEO李想、小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏（从左至右）</span></div><p><font>或许就像理想汽车创始人李想前两天所说的，“<font>我确实不关心股价，因为我也不打算卖，所以股价跟我关系不大，我还是想把企业经营好、产品做好，这是所有的核心。</font>”</font></p><p><font><font>看营收规模，谁更吸金？</font></font></p><p><font><font>蔚来优势明显，理想厚积薄发</font></font></p><p><font>根据三家车企公布的2018年、2019年、2020年上半年业绩，以及最新的Q3财报数据显示：</font><font><font><font>蔚来汽车，近三年来营业收入均排在首位，且远高于理想汽车和小鹏汽车。</font></font></font></p><p><font>理想汽车虽然是三家之中最晚实现交付的公司，但理想ONE自交付以来，连续三个季度实现正增长，今年以来表现出强劲的增长势头。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/80/w550h330/20201115/26ea-kcysmrv6266254.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>今年上半年理想实现营收27.52亿元，Q3实现营收25.11亿元，相较于Q2的19.5亿元，环比增长28.9%。理想预计第四季度营收约为31.1亿-33.9亿元，环比增长23.9%-35.1%。</font></p><p><font><font><font>相比之下，小鹏汽车今年的表现稍显疲软。</font></font></font><font>虽然小鹏在2018年就实现了整车交付，但其在2019年、2020年上半年的营收规模均远低于蔚来汽车，而且今年以来，开始被后来者理想汽车赶超。</font></p><p><font>小鹏汽车今年上半年实现营收10.03亿元，不仅与蔚来和理想差距明显，而且同比下降18.6%。不过，自P7今年5月实现交付之后，小鹏汽车开始实现反弹。</font></p><p><font>财报显示，小鹏Q3实现总营收19.9亿元，其中汽车销售收入18.98亿元，占到总营收的95%，同比和环比均实现三位数增长。</font><font>其中，P7功不可没。小鹏Q3总计交付8578辆，P7销量就占了72.4%，直接推动Q3总营收入同比增长了342.5%。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/137/w550h387/20201115/abee-kcysmrv6266304.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>小鹏P7和小鹏G3（来源：小鹏汽车）</span></div><p><font><font><font>就目前的形式来看，卖车仍是这三家造车新势力的营收来源。</font></font></font><font>除了蔚来通过能源体系、软件付费、APP电商等形式获取营收。从蔚来的Q2的数据来看，92%左右营收来自车辆销售，2019全年占比在93%左右。而理想汽车和小鹏汽车，目前主要靠卖车营收，销售收入占到95%~98%以上。</font></p><p><font><font>商业模式多元化不够清晰的阶段，卖车依旧是车企活命的关键。</font></font></p><p><font><font>看交付量，谁卖得更好？</font></font></p><p><font><font>蔚来领跑，小鹏有机会反超理想</font></font></p><p><font>对新造车企业而言，销量的多少直接决定收入的高低，蔚来、理想、小鹏这三家车企的营收与销量变化趋势，也再次佐证这一点。</font></p><p><font>2020年Q3，蔚来ES8、ES6分别交付4204辆、8700辆，季度交付1.2万辆。截至今年10月31日，蔚来旗下三款车累计交付逾6.3万辆，在数量上，遥遥领先另外两家新造车势力。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/91/w550h341/20201115/cbc0-kcysmrv6266380.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>此外值得注意的是，蔚来第三款量产车型EC6今年9月开始交付，使得蔚来产品更加多元化。不过相较于ES6在交付后的第二个月就实现了4200辆，EC6是一款轿跑SUV，10月份销量仅为883辆，未来能否打开市场，实现连续增长，仍有不确定性。</font></p><p><font>从前期交付数据来看，理想汽车可以说是三家车企中成绩最亮眼的一位。</font><font><font><font>仅凭理想ONE这一款车型，理想汽车就赶超小鹏</font></font></font><font><font>，</font></font><font>连续保持三个季度销量正增长。</font></p><p><font>2020年Q3理想交付8660辆，环比增长31%。</font><font>今年前10个月，理想累计交付2.2万辆，在三家之中最快突破2万辆。</font><font>此外，理想ONE在9月-10月连续两个月位居中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>SUV单一车型的销量榜首。</font><font>据理想汽车联合创始人、总裁沈亚楠判断，11月理想ONE仍有可能保持第一。</font></p><p><font><font>根据乘联会公布的10月新能源汽车销量排行，新造车企业的产品中，仅理想ONE一款车型入榜，位列第8。</font></font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/100/w550h350/20201115/6cf5-kcysmrv6266430.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>与蔚来、理想走中高端路线不同，小鹏主打中低端，但明显的价格优势，并没有促进其销量增长。2020年上半年，小鹏累计交付5499辆，同比下降23.3%，几乎是理想的1/2，蔚来的1/3。</font></p><p><font>小鹏P7今年5月交付后，小鹏交付量开始增长，Q3小鹏交付8578辆，其中P7交付逾6千辆。不过，目前P7补贴后售价区间为23-35万，对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Model 3，但Model 3已经降至27万，小鹏P7的价格优势将受到一定威胁。</font></p><p><font>此外，小鹏汽车的劲敌——自主品牌的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>汉售价区间21.98-27.95万，与小鹏P7短兵相接，在汉车型7月上市后，9月实现销量0.56万辆，环比增长 40%，Q3总销量为1.08万辆。可以说前有“外敌”，后有“内战”。</font></p><p><font>从另一个层面来看，</font><font><font>蔚来、小鹏、理想都在充电问题上给出解决方案，从用户痛点出发，实现刺激销量增长的效果。</font></font></p><p><font>蔚来最在2017年就推出换电模式，曾通过“终身免费”的福利吸引用户买车。但今年10月，蔚来换电体系的升级，对新购车用户的免费换电政策有所调整，增加了诸多限制条件，把“薅羊毛”的可能性降至最低。</font></p><p><font>但同时也推出BaaS电池租用服务，降低购车成本。并提供灵活升级，既考虑老车主的利益，也保证了新车主的权益。</font></p><p><font>小鹏则跟随蔚来与特斯拉的步伐，在9月北京车展上推出超充免费加电计划。小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏在财报电话会上表示，截至9月底，小鹏品牌的超级充电站已运营达135座，覆盖了50座城市。</font></p><p><font>预计在今年的年底前实现不少于60个城市实施免费超充服务。小鹏在未来几年将大规模超高效率的全国超充网络作为一个战略投入来做。</font></p><div><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/116/w550h366/20201115/6e2c-kcysmrv6266488.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>理想ONE（来源：理想汽车）</span></div></div><p><font>理想的思考方式则有些不同，它使用增程式的动力系统，既可以使用电能续航，也可以使用燃油续航，在解决“里程焦虑”这一问题上，理想汽车优势明显，而这也是其上市后迅速打开市场的一个重要原因。</font></p><p><font>理想汽车创始人李想在财报电话会上表示，</font><font><font>公司认为增程不是技术路线，将其视为类似特斯拉的超级充电站，蔚来的换电站一样的产品。</font></font></p><p><font>“增程是更适合中国中长期市场需求的充电解决方案。具体来讲是，把一个发电机通过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>化的算法控制，有效的放在车上，解决客户补能便捷性。理想ONE最大的特点是一辆更好智能电动车，只是具备了非常方便的充电条件。”</font></p><p><font><font><font>三兄弟的差异化定位，也体现在毛利率上。</font></font></font></p><p><font><font>看毛利率，谁能更早实现盈利</font></font></p><p><font><font>理想“成本杀手”，小鹏首度转正</font></font></p><p><font>对于蔚来、理想和小鹏来说，今年最大的利好消息，莫过于终于实现毛利率转正，不再是“卖一辆亏一辆”了。</font></p><p><font><font><font>蔚来和理想，处于两个极端，一个是“豪放”，以2019年的亏损情况计算，蔚来每卖一辆车就亏损55万。</font></font></font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/92/w550h342/20201115/99b5-kcysmrv6266521.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>今年二季度蔚来终于实现毛利转正，为8.4%，车辆毛利率达到历史最高9.7%。而2019年Q2和今年Q1蔚来车辆毛利率还分别是-24.1%和-7.4%。</font></p><p><font>成本控制上的优异表现，也使得蔚来汽车上半年综合毛利率达到2.9%，远高于去年同期的-23%。</font></p><p><font>另一个则是“抠门”到了极致，理想自交付以来，毛利率就一直为正向水平，且在今年前三季度呈现持续提升趋势。</font></p><p><font>理想汽车Q1、Q2和Q3毛利率分别为8%和13.3%和19.8%。而毛利率的提升则主要得益于部分零部件采购价格的下降，以及理想ONE产量提升带来的单车制造成本的下降。</font></p><p><font>根据此前披露的数据，理想Q1单车成本、单车售价分别为26.6万和29万，相当于每卖一辆就赚2.46万元。</font></p><p><font><font>李想甚至“抠门”到连翻译都舍不得请。</font></font></p><p><font>理想汽车创始人李想在财报电话会上，全程使用中文在讲话，而帮他把讲话内容翻译成英文的，是李想的搭档——理想汽车联合创始人沈亚楠。理想汽车一位内部人士告诉邦哥，<font>他们</font>在路演时也是这么搭档的。相比之下，每次的财报电话会上，蔚来创始人李斌需要一位专门的翻译为其逐句转述为英文。</font></p><p><font><font><font>但在开源节流的同时，投资未来也极为重要。</font></font></font></p><p><font><font>看研发投入，谁才是真材实料</font></font></p><p><font>据创业邦粗略估算，2016年-2020年上半年，蔚来汽车在研发上的投入达到136亿元，平均每年研发投入约为30亿元。今年以来在研发上的投入有所减少。</font></p><p><font><font><font>小鹏和理想在研发投入上虽不像蔚来那么阔绰，但也在全力投入。</font></font></font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/46/w550h296/20201115/31fb-kcysmrv6266614.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>从2018年-2020年Q3，小鹏汽车研发总投入为43.85亿元。2019年，小鹏的研发费用率为89%，今年上半年降低至63%。目前小鹏共有研发人员1569名，占比达到42.7%。</font></p><p><font>相比以上两家，理想汽车投入相对较少，2018年-2020年Q3，理想汽车总研发费用为26.86亿元，目前理想汽车研发团队共有1005人。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/59/w550h309/20201115/f93e-kcysmrv6266706.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>蔚来位于北京车展上的展台（来源：蔚来）</span></div><p><font><font>做一个不恰当，但很有必要的对比。</font></font></p><p><font>据比亚迪年报数据显示，公司2019年研发费用56.29亿元，同比增长12.83%。相比之下，另外两家自主品牌中，长城在2019全年的研发支出总额42.48亿元，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>集团2019年在研发上的支出为30.67亿元。</font></p><p><font>由此可见，能挤进国产品牌研发投入第一梯队的，只有蔚来一家。</font></p><p><font><font>看净亏损，谁最烧钱</font></font></p><p><font><font>理想收窄，小鹏扩大</font></font></p><p><font>尽管三家今年三季度均取得了不错的销量成绩，同时车辆毛利也实现转正，但从长期来看，离公司真正实现全面盈利，仍然有较长的路走。</font></p><p><font>具体而言，理想汽车今年Q1、Q2和Q3净亏损分别为7710万元、7520万元和1.07亿元，第三季度净亏损环比增长42.2%。</font></p><p><font>但在非美国通用会计准则下，理想Q3净利润为1600万元，而第二季度净亏损为1.59亿元，意味着Q3实现扭亏为盈。</font></p><div><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/64/w550h314/20201115/6cb1-kcysmrv6266836.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div></div><p><font>此外，今年11月6日，理想汽车宣布召回10469辆理想ONE电动汽车。有市场分析认为，召回带来的成本或将影响理想Q4财务数据。</font></p><p><font>在Q3财报电话会上，沈亚楠称，召回预计在3个月内完成，并未造成对成本和新增订单的重大影响。“新订单增长势头与之前一样，召回事件影响金额约为1000万元。” 显然，该金额相比理想汽车单季25亿的营收，只是一点皮毛。</font></p><p><font>蔚来汽车向来是“烧钱大户”，不过今年上半年亏损率已经收窄为-56.3%，去年同期这一比例高达-188.2%，2019年全年亏损率则为-144.4%。</font></p><p><font>小鹏汽车Q3净亏损为11.48亿元，与去年同期净亏损7.763亿元相比，有所扩大。财报显示，其亏损除用于运营、研发外，主要与上市后股权激励息息相关。</font></p><p><font><font>看现金流，谁最土豪？</font></font></p><p><font><font>理想、小鹏现金储备充裕</font></font></p><p><font>根据财报，理想Q3经营性现金流为9.30亿元，环比大幅增长105.8%，同时自由现金流为7.50亿元，环比增长149.3%，上述两个指标连续两个季度皆为正。</font></p><p><font>此外，截至第三季度末，理想汽车现金储备为189亿元，相比2019年的37亿元，翻了5倍。</font></p><p><font>截至今年9月30日，小鹏汽车拥有现金、现金等价物、受限资金和短期投资共计人民币199亿元。</font></p><p><font>第三季度，小鹏汽车成功完成9亿美元的C+融资和17亿美元IPO融资，一共融资接近26亿美元。对于小鹏汽车来说，当前现金流还算比较充裕。</font></p><p><font><font>无论是小鹏还是理想，这些资金的大头将会流向自动驾驶。</font></font></p><p><font>理想汽车联合创始人沈亚楠在专访中曾向创业邦表示，<font>智能自动驾驶方面的投入占比会越来越高。</font><font>按照预估，到了2023年的时候，</font></font><font><font><font>在研发占比上，智能化的投入就会超过其他所有的部分之和。甚至</font></font><font>每年开发车型的投入都要小于在智能自动驾驶方面投入。</font></font></p><p><font>此前，小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏也说，相信小鹏汽车是中国唯一一家全栈自研自动辅助驾驶软件和智能座舱整车企业。而蔚来也在近日，被爆出开始自研芯片，并已在近期推出</font><font>NOP自动辅助驾驶系统，再度拉近与特斯拉的技术差距。</font></p><p><font><font>写在最后</font></font></p><p><font>香橼“做空”蔚来主要有三大方面。</font></p><p><font>其一，蔚来汽车面临来自特斯拉的竞争，导致股价在高位难以为继。日前，国产特斯拉Model Y已完成工信部的申报工作。</font><font>其二，香橼认为蔚来汽车估值过高。</font><font>目前蔚来估值是未来12个月销售额的17至18倍，而特斯拉为9倍，双方差距创下历史新高；</font><font>其三，其中充斥着大量的投机者。</font></p><p><font>香橼认为，</font><font><font>“押注中国汽车市场电气化转型有更好的方法，现在是时候获利了结，并寻找下一个颠覆性技术了。”</font></font></p><p><font>而一位自主品牌车企的高管近日在交谈中，也向邦哥坦言，对于新造车企业股价的暴涨，需要等到1年、2年后再去看。如果到那个时候，它们的股价依旧能保持这样的增长，才能说明它们有真正的价值。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/126/w550h376/20201115/c5c9-kcysmrv6266988.png/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>何小鹏、李斌、李想（从左至右）</span></div><p><font>三家新造车企业的高估值能持续多久，没有答案。可以确定的是，蔚来小鹏理想，是一条船上的兄弟。谁先掉下船，对于另外两人都是危险的信号。</font></p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n遭做空！谁在戳破造车泡沫：4000亿市值的蔚来，189亿现金的理想\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-15 15:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-15/doc-iiznezxs1971951.shtml><strong>新浪科技综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：遭做空！谁在戳破造车泡沫：4000亿市值的蔚来，189亿现金的理想，毛利率转正的小鹏 | 撩车来源：创业邦作者：若然 大湿兄中概股的噩梦又来了？这次是中国的新造车势力。美国当地时间11月13日，香橼研究公司（Citron Research）针对蔚来汽车，连续发布了做空的推文和报告，认为蔚来股价只值25美元，仅为当时股价53美元的一半，堪称拦腰折断。曾发布150多份做空报告，把7家公司“干”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-15/doc-iiznezxs1971951.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b71d696bed7d7f2622aa052fa49f99","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-15/doc-iiznezxs1971951.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2083484051","content_text":"原标题：遭做空！谁在戳破造车泡沫：4000亿市值的蔚来，189亿现金的理想，毛利率转正的小鹏 | 撩车来源：创业邦作者：若然 大湿兄中概股的噩梦又来了？这次是中国的新造车势力。美国当地时间11月13日，香橼研究公司（Citron Research）针对蔚来汽车，连续发布了做空的推文和报告，认为蔚来股价只值25美元，仅为当时股价53美元的一半，堪称拦腰折断。曾发布150多份做空报告，把7家公司“干”退市的香橼，这次出手直接引发三家新造车美股上市公司的股价崩盘。13日美股，蔚来收跌近8%，盘后继续再跌超2%，小鹏汽车收跌6.13%，盘后下挫3.19%，理想汽车收跌1.83%，盘后下挫2.56%。蔚来、理想汽车、小鹏汽车股价情况（来源：老虎证券）截止11月13日收盘，蔚来最新市值为605.8亿美元（约3994亿人民币），小鹏汽车市值为291.5亿美元（约1922亿人民币），理想汽车市值为260.9亿美元（1720亿人民币），三者市值之和达到1158.2亿美元（约7636亿人民币）。但即便是受到做空的影响，三家新势力上市公司的市值，依然超过美国三大车企（通用市值为约为3887亿元、福特市值约为2240亿元、菲亚特克莱斯勒市值约为1501亿元）的市值之和。新造车企业，到底有没有真材实料？在11月12日，小鹏汽车公布第三季度财报。次日，理想汽车也公布上市后首份财报，而蔚来将于下周的11月17日公布最新财报。从目前已上交的成绩单来看，小鹏汽车与理想汽车都交出了亮眼的数据。这也使得，在财报电话会上两家公司的CEO都表现出极度的自信。蔚来汽车CEO李斌、理想汽车CEO李想、小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏（从左至右）或许就像理想汽车创始人李想前两天所说的，“我确实不关心股价，因为我也不打算卖，所以股价跟我关系不大，我还是想把企业经营好、产品做好，这是所有的核心。”看营收规模，谁更吸金？蔚来优势明显，理想厚积薄发根据三家车企公布的2018年、2019年、2020年上半年业绩，以及最新的Q3财报数据显示：蔚来汽车，近三年来营业收入均排在首位，且远高于理想汽车和小鹏汽车。理想汽车虽然是三家之中最晚实现交付的公司，但理想ONE自交付以来，连续三个季度实现正增长，今年以来表现出强劲的增长势头。今年上半年理想实现营收27.52亿元，Q3实现营收25.11亿元，相较于Q2的19.5亿元，环比增长28.9%。理想预计第四季度营收约为31.1亿-33.9亿元，环比增长23.9%-35.1%。相比之下，小鹏汽车今年的表现稍显疲软。虽然小鹏在2018年就实现了整车交付，但其在2019年、2020年上半年的营收规模均远低于蔚来汽车，而且今年以来，开始被后来者理想汽车赶超。小鹏汽车今年上半年实现营收10.03亿元，不仅与蔚来和理想差距明显，而且同比下降18.6%。不过，自P7今年5月实现交付之后，小鹏汽车开始实现反弹。财报显示，小鹏Q3实现总营收19.9亿元，其中汽车销售收入18.98亿元，占到总营收的95%，同比和环比均实现三位数增长。其中，P7功不可没。小鹏Q3总计交付8578辆，P7销量就占了72.4%，直接推动Q3总营收入同比增长了342.5%。小鹏P7和小鹏G3（来源：小鹏汽车）就目前的形式来看，卖车仍是这三家造车新势力的营收来源。除了蔚来通过能源体系、软件付费、APP电商等形式获取营收。从蔚来的Q2的数据来看，92%左右营收来自车辆销售，2019全年占比在93%左右。而理想汽车和小鹏汽车，目前主要靠卖车营收，销售收入占到95%~98%以上。商业模式多元化不够清晰的阶段，卖车依旧是车企活命的关键。看交付量，谁卖得更好？蔚来领跑，小鹏有机会反超理想对新造车企业而言，销量的多少直接决定收入的高低，蔚来、理想、小鹏这三家车企的营收与销量变化趋势，也再次佐证这一点。2020年Q3，蔚来ES8、ES6分别交付4204辆、8700辆，季度交付1.2万辆。截至今年10月31日，蔚来旗下三款车累计交付逾6.3万辆，在数量上，遥遥领先另外两家新造车势力。此外值得注意的是，蔚来第三款量产车型EC6今年9月开始交付，使得蔚来产品更加多元化。不过相较于ES6在交付后的第二个月就实现了4200辆，EC6是一款轿跑SUV，10月份销量仅为883辆，未来能否打开市场，实现连续增长，仍有不确定性。从前期交付数据来看，理想汽车可以说是三家车企中成绩最亮眼的一位。仅凭理想ONE这一款车型，理想汽车就赶超小鹏，连续保持三个季度销量正增长。2020年Q3理想交付8660辆，环比增长31%。今年前10个月，理想累计交付2.2万辆，在三家之中最快突破2万辆。此外，理想ONE在9月-10月连续两个月位居中国新能源SUV单一车型的销量榜首。据理想汽车联合创始人、总裁沈亚楠判断，11月理想ONE仍有可能保持第一。根据乘联会公布的10月新能源汽车销量排行，新造车企业的产品中，仅理想ONE一款车型入榜，位列第8。与蔚来、理想走中高端路线不同，小鹏主打中低端，但明显的价格优势，并没有促进其销量增长。2020年上半年，小鹏累计交付5499辆，同比下降23.3%，几乎是理想的1/2，蔚来的1/3。小鹏P7今年5月交付后，小鹏交付量开始增长，Q3小鹏交付8578辆，其中P7交付逾6千辆。不过，目前P7补贴后售价区间为23-35万，对标特斯拉Model 3，但Model 3已经降至27万，小鹏P7的价格优势将受到一定威胁。此外，小鹏汽车的劲敌——自主品牌的比亚迪汉售价区间21.98-27.95万，与小鹏P7短兵相接，在汉车型7月上市后，9月实现销量0.56万辆，环比增长 40%，Q3总销量为1.08万辆。可以说前有“外敌”，后有“内战”。从另一个层面来看，蔚来、小鹏、理想都在充电问题上给出解决方案，从用户痛点出发，实现刺激销量增长的效果。蔚来最在2017年就推出换电模式，曾通过“终身免费”的福利吸引用户买车。但今年10月，蔚来换电体系的升级，对新购车用户的免费换电政策有所调整，增加了诸多限制条件，把“薅羊毛”的可能性降至最低。但同时也推出BaaS电池租用服务，降低购车成本。并提供灵活升级，既考虑老车主的利益，也保证了新车主的权益。小鹏则跟随蔚来与特斯拉的步伐，在9月北京车展上推出超充免费加电计划。小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏在财报电话会上表示，截至9月底，小鹏品牌的超级充电站已运营达135座，覆盖了50座城市。预计在今年的年底前实现不少于60个城市实施免费超充服务。小鹏在未来几年将大规模超高效率的全国超充网络作为一个战略投入来做。理想ONE（来源：理想汽车）理想的思考方式则有些不同，它使用增程式的动力系统，既可以使用电能续航，也可以使用燃油续航，在解决“里程焦虑”这一问题上，理想汽车优势明显，而这也是其上市后迅速打开市场的一个重要原因。理想汽车创始人李想在财报电话会上表示，公司认为增程不是技术路线，将其视为类似特斯拉的超级充电站，蔚来的换电站一样的产品。“增程是更适合中国中长期市场需求的充电解决方案。具体来讲是，把一个发电机通过智能化的算法控制，有效的放在车上，解决客户补能便捷性。理想ONE最大的特点是一辆更好智能电动车，只是具备了非常方便的充电条件。”三兄弟的差异化定位，也体现在毛利率上。看毛利率，谁能更早实现盈利理想“成本杀手”，小鹏首度转正对于蔚来、理想和小鹏来说，今年最大的利好消息，莫过于终于实现毛利率转正，不再是“卖一辆亏一辆”了。蔚来和理想，处于两个极端，一个是“豪放”，以2019年的亏损情况计算，蔚来每卖一辆车就亏损55万。今年二季度蔚来终于实现毛利转正，为8.4%，车辆毛利率达到历史最高9.7%。而2019年Q2和今年Q1蔚来车辆毛利率还分别是-24.1%和-7.4%。成本控制上的优异表现，也使得蔚来汽车上半年综合毛利率达到2.9%，远高于去年同期的-23%。另一个则是“抠门”到了极致，理想自交付以来，毛利率就一直为正向水平，且在今年前三季度呈现持续提升趋势。理想汽车Q1、Q2和Q3毛利率分别为8%和13.3%和19.8%。而毛利率的提升则主要得益于部分零部件采购价格的下降，以及理想ONE产量提升带来的单车制造成本的下降。根据此前披露的数据，理想Q1单车成本、单车售价分别为26.6万和29万，相当于每卖一辆就赚2.46万元。李想甚至“抠门”到连翻译都舍不得请。理想汽车创始人李想在财报电话会上，全程使用中文在讲话，而帮他把讲话内容翻译成英文的，是李想的搭档——理想汽车联合创始人沈亚楠。理想汽车一位内部人士告诉邦哥，他们在路演时也是这么搭档的。相比之下，每次的财报电话会上，蔚来创始人李斌需要一位专门的翻译为其逐句转述为英文。但在开源节流的同时，投资未来也极为重要。看研发投入，谁才是真材实料据创业邦粗略估算，2016年-2020年上半年，蔚来汽车在研发上的投入达到136亿元，平均每年研发投入约为30亿元。今年以来在研发上的投入有所减少。小鹏和理想在研发投入上虽不像蔚来那么阔绰，但也在全力投入。从2018年-2020年Q3，小鹏汽车研发总投入为43.85亿元。2019年，小鹏的研发费用率为89%，今年上半年降低至63%。目前小鹏共有研发人员1569名，占比达到42.7%。相比以上两家，理想汽车投入相对较少，2018年-2020年Q3，理想汽车总研发费用为26.86亿元，目前理想汽车研发团队共有1005人。蔚来位于北京车展上的展台（来源：蔚来）做一个不恰当，但很有必要的对比。据比亚迪年报数据显示，公司2019年研发费用56.29亿元，同比增长12.83%。相比之下，另外两家自主品牌中，长城在2019全年的研发支出总额42.48亿元，吉利汽车集团2019年在研发上的支出为30.67亿元。由此可见，能挤进国产品牌研发投入第一梯队的，只有蔚来一家。看净亏损，谁最烧钱理想收窄，小鹏扩大尽管三家今年三季度均取得了不错的销量成绩，同时车辆毛利也实现转正，但从长期来看，离公司真正实现全面盈利，仍然有较长的路走。具体而言，理想汽车今年Q1、Q2和Q3净亏损分别为7710万元、7520万元和1.07亿元，第三季度净亏损环比增长42.2%。但在非美国通用会计准则下，理想Q3净利润为1600万元，而第二季度净亏损为1.59亿元，意味着Q3实现扭亏为盈。此外，今年11月6日，理想汽车宣布召回10469辆理想ONE电动汽车。有市场分析认为，召回带来的成本或将影响理想Q4财务数据。在Q3财报电话会上，沈亚楠称，召回预计在3个月内完成，并未造成对成本和新增订单的重大影响。“新订单增长势头与之前一样，召回事件影响金额约为1000万元。” 显然，该金额相比理想汽车单季25亿的营收，只是一点皮毛。蔚来汽车向来是“烧钱大户”，不过今年上半年亏损率已经收窄为-56.3%，去年同期这一比例高达-188.2%，2019年全年亏损率则为-144.4%。小鹏汽车Q3净亏损为11.48亿元，与去年同期净亏损7.763亿元相比，有所扩大。财报显示，其亏损除用于运营、研发外，主要与上市后股权激励息息相关。看现金流，谁最土豪？理想、小鹏现金储备充裕根据财报，理想Q3经营性现金流为9.30亿元，环比大幅增长105.8%，同时自由现金流为7.50亿元，环比增长149.3%，上述两个指标连续两个季度皆为正。此外，截至第三季度末，理想汽车现金储备为189亿元，相比2019年的37亿元，翻了5倍。截至今年9月30日，小鹏汽车拥有现金、现金等价物、受限资金和短期投资共计人民币199亿元。第三季度，小鹏汽车成功完成9亿美元的C+融资和17亿美元IPO融资，一共融资接近26亿美元。对于小鹏汽车来说，当前现金流还算比较充裕。无论是小鹏还是理想，这些资金的大头将会流向自动驾驶。理想汽车联合创始人沈亚楠在专访中曾向创业邦表示，智能自动驾驶方面的投入占比会越来越高。按照预估，到了2023年的时候，在研发占比上，智能化的投入就会超过其他所有的部分之和。甚至每年开发车型的投入都要小于在智能自动驾驶方面投入。此前，小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏也说，相信小鹏汽车是中国唯一一家全栈自研自动辅助驾驶软件和智能座舱整车企业。而蔚来也在近日，被爆出开始自研芯片，并已在近期推出NOP自动辅助驾驶系统，再度拉近与特斯拉的技术差距。写在最后香橼“做空”蔚来主要有三大方面。其一，蔚来汽车面临来自特斯拉的竞争，导致股价在高位难以为继。日前，国产特斯拉Model Y已完成工信部的申报工作。其二，香橼认为蔚来汽车估值过高。目前蔚来估值是未来12个月销售额的17至18倍，而特斯拉为9倍，双方差距创下历史新高；其三，其中充斥着大量的投机者。香橼认为，“押注中国汽车市场电气化转型有更好的方法，现在是时候获利了结，并寻找下一个颠覆性技术了。”而一位自主品牌车企的高管近日在交谈中，也向邦哥坦言，对于新造车企业股价的暴涨，需要等到1年、2年后再去看。如果到那个时候，它们的股价依旧能保持这样的增长，才能说明它们有真正的价值。何小鹏、李斌、李想（从左至右）三家新造车企业的高估值能持续多久，没有答案。可以确定的是，蔚来小鹏理想，是一条船上的兄弟。谁先掉下船，对于另外两人都是危险的信号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942847993,"gmtCreate":1596120782412,"gmtModify":1704211225546,"author":{"id":"38136444741210","authorId":"38136444741210","name":"forex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a960e6e163bd03e43eea4b3b5796da53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就tmd的10股 兄弟们还担心破发还是不破发 真是蛋疼","listText":"就tmd的10股 兄弟们还担心破发还是不破发 真是蛋疼","text":"就tmd的10股 兄弟们还担心破发还是不破发 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