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2021-06-21

Up up up~[看涨] [看涨]

NIO Takes On The World

2021-07-07

[思考]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-27

$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ shooting up 🎉🚀

2021-09-30

🤔

2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains

2021-06-18

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Nice [得意]

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already

2021-06-13

[正经] [正经]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

[微笑]

3 Things New Investors Should Do in a Bear Market

2021-06-08

What do you think on this stock? Going to bullish?[惊讶] [疑问]

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2021-06-07

Bullish soon[看涨]

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>&nbsp;shooting up 🎉🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>&nbsp;shooting up 🎉🚀","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ shooting up 🎉🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d698a9ba549fce64f356e1b81467d632","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855313346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865500340,"gmtCreate":1632994501390,"gmtModify":1632994502141,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865500340","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&amp;P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&amp;P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&amp;P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.</p>\n<p>Performance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500® Index, or the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.</p>\n<p>Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.</p>\n<p>Copyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.</p>\n<p>Frank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.</p>\n<p>Products and services described on this website are intended for<b>United States residents only</b>. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. 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Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140428262,"gmtCreate":1625669460156,"gmtModify":1631890026569,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140428262","repostId":"1106187901","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167236357,"gmtCreate":1624269421179,"gmtModify":1631890026576,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"Up up up~[看涨] [看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167236357","repostId":"1172678753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172678753","pubTimestamp":1624268694,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172678753?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Takes On The World","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172678753","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.NIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.NIO Inc.stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.NIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the wor","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.</li>\n <li>First stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.</li>\n <li>NIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.</p>\n<p>In this article, we will analyze NIO's global expansion plans, as well as an updated analysis of the stock's trading, valuation, financials, and risks. Please also read my recent article<i>NIO Is Winning</i>for a broader analysis of the company's competitive advantages.</p>\n<p><b>The Plan</b></p>\n<p>NIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the world. Now, the company is set to take on the world. First stop: Norway.</p>\n<p>In May of this year, NIOannouncedthat it plans to sell the NIO ES8, the company's flagship seven-seater SUV, in its first overseas store in Oslo starting in September this year. By 2022, the company aims to expand its store network to other Norwegian cities and deliver the ET7.</p>\n<p>Norway is an excellent starting point given its affluent citizens, supportive attitude towards EVs, and relatively high global prestige. For example, in 2020,Norway'sper-capita GDP is over $75,000, well above theUK's$43,000.</p>\n<p>Another important reason for starting in Norway is the lack of domestic competitors. In Germany, you have Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In France, you have Stellantis (STLA). In other words, it should be easier to win in Norway, and winning Norway will give the company credibility and momentum to win the rest of Europe and the rest of the world.</p>\n<p>This is a very smart move indeed.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4ee92152d74d6051bcdf874b7a9b5a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Company</p>\n<p>Unlike SAIC, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and XPeng (XPEV) - which are also exporting to Europe - NIO is taking a different approach. The company plans to localize its entire ecosystem to create a unique premium EV ownership experience that parallels the Chineseecosystem strategy.</p>\n<p>Like in China, NIO will build both digital and physical infrastructure to support the brand. A dedicated mobile app will be available in Norway, supported by a lifestyle brand campaign in collaboration with local artists and a user advisory board. The firstNIO Houseoutside China will officially open in the third quarter in Oslo. In 2022, four NIO Spaces will open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim, and Kristiansand.</p>\n<p>In addition, the company will also open an 18,000 square meter service center, charging stations, and battery swapping stations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa22e0e80d298cc13c2d3dac50d93d12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Company</p>\n<p>All of this will cost a lot of money, but it is important to establish a successful beachhead in Europe, and the company has plenty of cash (see<i>Financial</i>section).</p>\n<p><b>The Opportunity: Europe</b></p>\n<p>It might come as a surprise to readers that EVs already dominate the Norwegian carmarketwith a 54% market share in 2020 and a 66.7% market share in December 2020. Adoption of EVs is driven by the country's aggressive target of ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2025.</p>\n<p>In 2020, 76,804 electric vehicles weresoldin Norway. That is a lot of EVs, but just a small fraction of the 1.4 million electric vehiclessoldin Europe that year.</p>\n<p>Europe offers massive growth opportunities for NIO, and management has repeatedly expressed interest in going after all of Europe. In 2020, the combined EV markets of this economic blocksurpassedChina for the first time. The combination of regulation, incentives, and public acceptance sent purchases of new EVs in Europe last year to 1.4 million from 595,000 the year before. Sales of EVs in China came in at 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million the yearbefore.</p>\n<p>According to JATO Dynamics, plug-in EVs accounted for 12% of all new car sales in the EU last year, and Europe has a global market share of 43% in EVs. China and the EU together account for nearly the entire global market for EVs (mid-80% range).</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO's serviceable addressable market (\"SAM\") doubles once it establishes a successful beachhead in Oslo. Stay tuned for September!</p>\n<p><b>Trading &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Sentiment on the stock has been improving significantly since May 2021. Since the beginning of June, the stock has been trading above its 200-day moving average after spending the previous month below this important technical indicator.</p>\n<p>Although the stock has been on a tear recently, short interest remains stable and low at around 5.2% of shares outstanding. This suggests little skepticism from professional skeptics - an assuring sign.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021.</p>\n<p>After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited2020with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Expanding outside of China comes will take a lot of capital and come with plenty of uncertainty. The company will need to establish credibility in mature automotive markets with consumers accustomed to buying from legacy OEMs.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chipshortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The more I learn about NIO, the more impressed I am by the company'sinnovation, competitive advantages, and ambition. Entering the European market through Norway, backed up by a sound and comprehensive execution plan, strikes me as a brilliant move. The company has billions on the balance sheet to support its global vision and currently trades at a reasonable valuation.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Takes On The World</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Takes On The World\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 17:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.\nFirst stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.\nNIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1172678753","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.\nFirst stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.\nNIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.\n\nNIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.\nIn this article, we will analyze NIO's global expansion plans, as well as an updated analysis of the stock's trading, valuation, financials, and risks. Please also read my recent articleNIO Is Winningfor a broader analysis of the company's competitive advantages.\nThe Plan\nNIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the world. Now, the company is set to take on the world. First stop: Norway.\nIn May of this year, NIOannouncedthat it plans to sell the NIO ES8, the company's flagship seven-seater SUV, in its first overseas store in Oslo starting in September this year. By 2022, the company aims to expand its store network to other Norwegian cities and deliver the ET7.\nNorway is an excellent starting point given its affluent citizens, supportive attitude towards EVs, and relatively high global prestige. For example, in 2020,Norway'sper-capita GDP is over $75,000, well above theUK's$43,000.\nAnother important reason for starting in Norway is the lack of domestic competitors. In Germany, you have Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In France, you have Stellantis (STLA). In other words, it should be easier to win in Norway, and winning Norway will give the company credibility and momentum to win the rest of Europe and the rest of the world.\nThis is a very smart move indeed.\n\nSource: Company\nUnlike SAIC, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and XPeng (XPEV) - which are also exporting to Europe - NIO is taking a different approach. The company plans to localize its entire ecosystem to create a unique premium EV ownership experience that parallels the Chineseecosystem strategy.\nLike in China, NIO will build both digital and physical infrastructure to support the brand. A dedicated mobile app will be available in Norway, supported by a lifestyle brand campaign in collaboration with local artists and a user advisory board. The firstNIO Houseoutside China will officially open in the third quarter in Oslo. In 2022, four NIO Spaces will open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim, and Kristiansand.\nIn addition, the company will also open an 18,000 square meter service center, charging stations, and battery swapping stations.\nSource: Company\nAll of this will cost a lot of money, but it is important to establish a successful beachhead in Europe, and the company has plenty of cash (seeFinancialsection).\nThe Opportunity: Europe\nIt might come as a surprise to readers that EVs already dominate the Norwegian carmarketwith a 54% market share in 2020 and a 66.7% market share in December 2020. Adoption of EVs is driven by the country's aggressive target of ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2025.\nIn 2020, 76,804 electric vehicles weresoldin Norway. That is a lot of EVs, but just a small fraction of the 1.4 million electric vehiclessoldin Europe that year.\nEurope offers massive growth opportunities for NIO, and management has repeatedly expressed interest in going after all of Europe. In 2020, the combined EV markets of this economic blocksurpassedChina for the first time. The combination of regulation, incentives, and public acceptance sent purchases of new EVs in Europe last year to 1.4 million from 595,000 the year before. Sales of EVs in China came in at 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million the yearbefore.\nAccording to JATO Dynamics, plug-in EVs accounted for 12% of all new car sales in the EU last year, and Europe has a global market share of 43% in EVs. China and the EU together account for nearly the entire global market for EVs (mid-80% range).\nIn other words, NIO's serviceable addressable market (\"SAM\") doubles once it establishes a successful beachhead in Oslo. Stay tuned for September!\nTrading & Valuation\nSentiment on the stock has been improving significantly since May 2021. Since the beginning of June, the stock has been trading above its 200-day moving average after spending the previous month below this important technical indicator.\nAlthough the stock has been on a tear recently, short interest remains stable and low at around 5.2% of shares outstanding. This suggests little skepticism from professional skeptics - an assuring sign.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021.\nAfter the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nFinancials\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited2020with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nExpanding outside of China comes will take a lot of capital and come with plenty of uncertainty. The company will need to establish credibility in mature automotive markets with consumers accustomed to buying from legacy OEMs.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chipshortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nThe more I learn about NIO, the more impressed I am by the company'sinnovation, competitive advantages, and ambition. Entering the European market through Norway, backed up by a sound and comprehensive execution plan, strikes me as a brilliant move. The company has billions on the balance sheet to support its global vision and currently trades at a reasonable valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166341337,"gmtCreate":1623993658229,"gmtModify":1631890026580,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;Nice&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;Nice&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ Nice [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166341337","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185349293,"gmtCreate":1623634714412,"gmtModify":1631890735595,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185349293","repostId":"2143785586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143785586","pubTimestamp":1623633840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143785586?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 09:24","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"3 Things New Investors Should Do in a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143785586","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You need these key investing principles now more than ever.","content":"<p>Bear markets are tough on all investors, but they can be especially nerve-wracking for new investors who are still learning the ropes. Some may feel they're doing something wrong because they're losing money, and that could tempt them to make decisions that turn a temporary loss into a permanent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. If you're new to investing and aren't sure how to handle a market crash, try some of these tips.</p>\n<h2>1. Focus on the long term</h2>\n<p>Losses can be devastating, but you have to remember that if you've invested in sound companies, they're probably temporary. You often don't need to do anything to fix the situation because it'll fix itself in time. In fact, trying to sell your investments off quickly before you lose more money or buying more feverishly to try to make up for your losses could just create more problems for you.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecc64949055e4e56eddc4186b015ebe8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>There are some cases where you should rethink your asset allocation. For example, if you only have your money invested in a couple of stocks and they're all in a single sector, that's a clear sign you're not diversified enough. You're putting yourself at risk for huge losses if your few investments don't do well, so it makes sense to move some of your money around. But when you're already well diversified and invested in large, stable companies, often the best thing you can do is leave your investments alone.</p>\n<h2>2. Stop checking your portfolio every day</h2>\n<p>If looking at your portfolio is stressing you out and tempting you to make rash moves, it's best to step back for a while. Don't check on it every day or every week. In reality, even month-to-month performance doesn't matter that much when you plan to hold a stock for decades.</p>\n<p>See if you can set up automated contributions if you haven't already. This automatically pulls money out of your bank account every month and invests it according to your direction. This is actually a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging. It's a great <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> for most investors, but especially beginners because it's so simple. You don't have to time the market. You just invest a regular amount of money on a predictable schedule. Sometimes, you'll buy when prices are high and other times when prices are low. In the end, you pay a fair price for all of your shares.</p>\n<h2>3. Consider an index fund</h2>\n<p>Index funds are a great way to diversify your portfolio, and you can easily use dollar-cost averaging to invest more in them over time. An index fund is a type of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- a bundle of stocks you purchase together. What sets them apart from other mutual funds or ETFs is that index funds are created to mimic the performance of their underlying index. So an S&amp;P 500 index fund contains the stocks of all 500 companies that make up the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>The idea is that when the index does well, the people invested in index funds do well too. And that strategy works well for a lot of people. Warren Buffett is a huge fan of index funds and once bet a top hedge fund manager that it couldn't outperform an S&amp;P 500 index fund over 10 years. Buffett won in a landslide.</p>\n<p>Index funds usually don't deliver the exact same return as the index itself because, like all mutual funds, they have some fees, known as expense ratios. But index fund expense ratios are usually extremely low. The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF only charges you $3 per year for every $10,000 you have invested in it. These low fees help you hold onto more of your earnings, which are often pretty substantial over the long term.</p>\n<p>If you'd invested $10,000 in the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF at the beginning of 2011, you'd have nearly $42,000 as of the end of May of this year. S&amp;P 500 index funds see their ups and downs. But again, as long as you're focused on the long term, these short-term fluctuations shouldn't worry you too much.</p>\n<p>It can be difficult to have confidence in your investing decisions when you're still new to the game, but in a market crash, second-guessing yourself can have devastating consequences. Take a good hard look at your portfolio to decide if there are any serious issues, like a lack of diversification, that need to be addressed. But otherwise, stay the course and keep reminding yourself that the market will recover eventually.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things New Investors Should Do in a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things New Investors Should Do in a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 09:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/3-things-new-investors-should-do-in-a-bear-market/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bear markets are tough on all investors, but they can be especially nerve-wracking for new investors who are still learning the ropes. Some may feel they're doing something wrong because they're ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/3-things-new-investors-should-do-in-a-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ISBC":"投资者银行","NGD":"New Gold",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/3-things-new-investors-should-do-in-a-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143785586","content_text":"Bear markets are tough on all investors, but they can be especially nerve-wracking for new investors who are still learning the ropes. Some may feel they're doing something wrong because they're losing money, and that could tempt them to make decisions that turn a temporary loss into a permanent one. If you're new to investing and aren't sure how to handle a market crash, try some of these tips.\n1. Focus on the long term\nLosses can be devastating, but you have to remember that if you've invested in sound companies, they're probably temporary. You often don't need to do anything to fix the situation because it'll fix itself in time. In fact, trying to sell your investments off quickly before you lose more money or buying more feverishly to try to make up for your losses could just create more problems for you.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nThere are some cases where you should rethink your asset allocation. For example, if you only have your money invested in a couple of stocks and they're all in a single sector, that's a clear sign you're not diversified enough. You're putting yourself at risk for huge losses if your few investments don't do well, so it makes sense to move some of your money around. But when you're already well diversified and invested in large, stable companies, often the best thing you can do is leave your investments alone.\n2. Stop checking your portfolio every day\nIf looking at your portfolio is stressing you out and tempting you to make rash moves, it's best to step back for a while. Don't check on it every day or every week. In reality, even month-to-month performance doesn't matter that much when you plan to hold a stock for decades.\nSee if you can set up automated contributions if you haven't already. This automatically pulls money out of your bank account every month and invests it according to your direction. This is actually a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging. It's a great one for most investors, but especially beginners because it's so simple. You don't have to time the market. You just invest a regular amount of money on a predictable schedule. Sometimes, you'll buy when prices are high and other times when prices are low. In the end, you pay a fair price for all of your shares.\n3. Consider an index fund\nIndex funds are a great way to diversify your portfolio, and you can easily use dollar-cost averaging to invest more in them over time. An index fund is a type of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- a bundle of stocks you purchase together. What sets them apart from other mutual funds or ETFs is that index funds are created to mimic the performance of their underlying index. So an S&P 500 index fund contains the stocks of all 500 companies that make up the S&P 500.\nThe idea is that when the index does well, the people invested in index funds do well too. And that strategy works well for a lot of people. Warren Buffett is a huge fan of index funds and once bet a top hedge fund manager that it couldn't outperform an S&P 500 index fund over 10 years. Buffett won in a landslide.\nIndex funds usually don't deliver the exact same return as the index itself because, like all mutual funds, they have some fees, known as expense ratios. But index fund expense ratios are usually extremely low. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF only charges you $3 per year for every $10,000 you have invested in it. These low fees help you hold onto more of your earnings, which are often pretty substantial over the long term.\nIf you'd invested $10,000 in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF at the beginning of 2011, you'd have nearly $42,000 as of the end of May of this year. S&P 500 index funds see their ups and downs. But again, as long as you're focused on the long term, these short-term fluctuations shouldn't worry you too much.\nIt can be difficult to have confidence in your investing decisions when you're still new to the game, but in a market crash, second-guessing yourself can have devastating consequences. Take a good hard look at your portfolio to decide if there are any serious issues, like a lack of diversification, that need to be addressed. But otherwise, stay the course and keep reminding yourself that the market will recover eventually.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186572037,"gmtCreate":1623515117229,"gmtModify":1631893073911,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[正经]&nbsp;[正经]&nbsp;","listText":"[正经]&nbsp;[正经]&nbsp;","text":"[正经] [正经]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186572037","repostId":"2142378818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117141139,"gmtCreate":1623125636321,"gmtModify":1631893073947,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What do you think on this stock? Going to bullish?[惊讶]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"What do you think on this stock? Going to bullish?[惊讶]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"What do you think on this stock? Going to bullish?[惊讶] [疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117141139","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114052592,"gmtCreate":1623038106416,"gmtModify":1631893073985,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish soon[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"Bullish soon[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"Bullish soon[看涨]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c856c7414028fbd02e7206e2b88a4c","width":"1080","height":"2501"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114052592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":167236357,"gmtCreate":1624269421179,"gmtModify":1631890026576,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"Up up up~[看涨] [看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167236357","repostId":"1172678753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172678753","pubTimestamp":1624268694,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172678753?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Takes On The World","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172678753","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.NIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.NIO Inc.stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.NIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the wor","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.</li>\n <li>First stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.</li>\n <li>NIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.</p>\n<p>In this article, we will analyze NIO's global expansion plans, as well as an updated analysis of the stock's trading, valuation, financials, and risks. Please also read my recent article<i>NIO Is Winning</i>for a broader analysis of the company's competitive advantages.</p>\n<p><b>The Plan</b></p>\n<p>NIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the world. Now, the company is set to take on the world. First stop: Norway.</p>\n<p>In May of this year, NIOannouncedthat it plans to sell the NIO ES8, the company's flagship seven-seater SUV, in its first overseas store in Oslo starting in September this year. By 2022, the company aims to expand its store network to other Norwegian cities and deliver the ET7.</p>\n<p>Norway is an excellent starting point given its affluent citizens, supportive attitude towards EVs, and relatively high global prestige. For example, in 2020,Norway'sper-capita GDP is over $75,000, well above theUK's$43,000.</p>\n<p>Another important reason for starting in Norway is the lack of domestic competitors. In Germany, you have Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In France, you have Stellantis (STLA). In other words, it should be easier to win in Norway, and winning Norway will give the company credibility and momentum to win the rest of Europe and the rest of the world.</p>\n<p>This is a very smart move indeed.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4ee92152d74d6051bcdf874b7a9b5a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Company</p>\n<p>Unlike SAIC, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and XPeng (XPEV) - which are also exporting to Europe - NIO is taking a different approach. The company plans to localize its entire ecosystem to create a unique premium EV ownership experience that parallels the Chineseecosystem strategy.</p>\n<p>Like in China, NIO will build both digital and physical infrastructure to support the brand. A dedicated mobile app will be available in Norway, supported by a lifestyle brand campaign in collaboration with local artists and a user advisory board. The firstNIO Houseoutside China will officially open in the third quarter in Oslo. In 2022, four NIO Spaces will open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim, and Kristiansand.</p>\n<p>In addition, the company will also open an 18,000 square meter service center, charging stations, and battery swapping stations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa22e0e80d298cc13c2d3dac50d93d12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Company</p>\n<p>All of this will cost a lot of money, but it is important to establish a successful beachhead in Europe, and the company has plenty of cash (see<i>Financial</i>section).</p>\n<p><b>The Opportunity: Europe</b></p>\n<p>It might come as a surprise to readers that EVs already dominate the Norwegian carmarketwith a 54% market share in 2020 and a 66.7% market share in December 2020. Adoption of EVs is driven by the country's aggressive target of ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2025.</p>\n<p>In 2020, 76,804 electric vehicles weresoldin Norway. That is a lot of EVs, but just a small fraction of the 1.4 million electric vehiclessoldin Europe that year.</p>\n<p>Europe offers massive growth opportunities for NIO, and management has repeatedly expressed interest in going after all of Europe. In 2020, the combined EV markets of this economic blocksurpassedChina for the first time. The combination of regulation, incentives, and public acceptance sent purchases of new EVs in Europe last year to 1.4 million from 595,000 the year before. Sales of EVs in China came in at 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million the yearbefore.</p>\n<p>According to JATO Dynamics, plug-in EVs accounted for 12% of all new car sales in the EU last year, and Europe has a global market share of 43% in EVs. China and the EU together account for nearly the entire global market for EVs (mid-80% range).</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO's serviceable addressable market (\"SAM\") doubles once it establishes a successful beachhead in Oslo. Stay tuned for September!</p>\n<p><b>Trading &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Sentiment on the stock has been improving significantly since May 2021. Since the beginning of June, the stock has been trading above its 200-day moving average after spending the previous month below this important technical indicator.</p>\n<p>Although the stock has been on a tear recently, short interest remains stable and low at around 5.2% of shares outstanding. This suggests little skepticism from professional skeptics - an assuring sign.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021.</p>\n<p>After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited2020with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Expanding outside of China comes will take a lot of capital and come with plenty of uncertainty. The company will need to establish credibility in mature automotive markets with consumers accustomed to buying from legacy OEMs.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chipshortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The more I learn about NIO, the more impressed I am by the company'sinnovation, competitive advantages, and ambition. Entering the European market through Norway, backed up by a sound and comprehensive execution plan, strikes me as a brilliant move. The company has billions on the balance sheet to support its global vision and currently trades at a reasonable valuation.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Takes On The World</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Takes On The World\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 17:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.\nFirst stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.\nNIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1172678753","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.\nFirst stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.\nNIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.\n\nNIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.\nIn this article, we will analyze NIO's global expansion plans, as well as an updated analysis of the stock's trading, valuation, financials, and risks. Please also read my recent articleNIO Is Winningfor a broader analysis of the company's competitive advantages.\nThe Plan\nNIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the world. Now, the company is set to take on the world. First stop: Norway.\nIn May of this year, NIOannouncedthat it plans to sell the NIO ES8, the company's flagship seven-seater SUV, in its first overseas store in Oslo starting in September this year. By 2022, the company aims to expand its store network to other Norwegian cities and deliver the ET7.\nNorway is an excellent starting point given its affluent citizens, supportive attitude towards EVs, and relatively high global prestige. For example, in 2020,Norway'sper-capita GDP is over $75,000, well above theUK's$43,000.\nAnother important reason for starting in Norway is the lack of domestic competitors. In Germany, you have Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In France, you have Stellantis (STLA). In other words, it should be easier to win in Norway, and winning Norway will give the company credibility and momentum to win the rest of Europe and the rest of the world.\nThis is a very smart move indeed.\n\nSource: Company\nUnlike SAIC, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and XPeng (XPEV) - which are also exporting to Europe - NIO is taking a different approach. The company plans to localize its entire ecosystem to create a unique premium EV ownership experience that parallels the Chineseecosystem strategy.\nLike in China, NIO will build both digital and physical infrastructure to support the brand. A dedicated mobile app will be available in Norway, supported by a lifestyle brand campaign in collaboration with local artists and a user advisory board. The firstNIO Houseoutside China will officially open in the third quarter in Oslo. In 2022, four NIO Spaces will open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim, and Kristiansand.\nIn addition, the company will also open an 18,000 square meter service center, charging stations, and battery swapping stations.\nSource: Company\nAll of this will cost a lot of money, but it is important to establish a successful beachhead in Europe, and the company has plenty of cash (seeFinancialsection).\nThe Opportunity: Europe\nIt might come as a surprise to readers that EVs already dominate the Norwegian carmarketwith a 54% market share in 2020 and a 66.7% market share in December 2020. Adoption of EVs is driven by the country's aggressive target of ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2025.\nIn 2020, 76,804 electric vehicles weresoldin Norway. That is a lot of EVs, but just a small fraction of the 1.4 million electric vehiclessoldin Europe that year.\nEurope offers massive growth opportunities for NIO, and management has repeatedly expressed interest in going after all of Europe. In 2020, the combined EV markets of this economic blocksurpassedChina for the first time. The combination of regulation, incentives, and public acceptance sent purchases of new EVs in Europe last year to 1.4 million from 595,000 the year before. Sales of EVs in China came in at 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million the yearbefore.\nAccording to JATO Dynamics, plug-in EVs accounted for 12% of all new car sales in the EU last year, and Europe has a global market share of 43% in EVs. China and the EU together account for nearly the entire global market for EVs (mid-80% range).\nIn other words, NIO's serviceable addressable market (\"SAM\") doubles once it establishes a successful beachhead in Oslo. Stay tuned for September!\nTrading & Valuation\nSentiment on the stock has been improving significantly since May 2021. Since the beginning of June, the stock has been trading above its 200-day moving average after spending the previous month below this important technical indicator.\nAlthough the stock has been on a tear recently, short interest remains stable and low at around 5.2% of shares outstanding. This suggests little skepticism from professional skeptics - an assuring sign.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021.\nAfter the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nFinancials\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited2020with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nExpanding outside of China comes will take a lot of capital and come with plenty of uncertainty. The company will need to establish credibility in mature automotive markets with consumers accustomed to buying from legacy OEMs.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chipshortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nThe more I learn about NIO, the more impressed I am by the company'sinnovation, competitive advantages, and ambition. Entering the European market through Norway, backed up by a sound and comprehensive execution plan, strikes me as a brilliant move. The company has billions on the balance sheet to support its global vision and currently trades at a reasonable valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140428262,"gmtCreate":1625669460156,"gmtModify":1631890026569,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140428262","repostId":"1106187901","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855313346,"gmtCreate":1635335470630,"gmtModify":1635335475997,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>&nbsp;shooting up 🎉🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>&nbsp;shooting up 🎉🚀","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ shooting up 🎉🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d698a9ba549fce64f356e1b81467d632","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855313346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865500340,"gmtCreate":1632994501390,"gmtModify":1632994502141,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865500340","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&amp;P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&amp;P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&amp;P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.</p>\n<p>Performance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500® Index, or the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.</p>\n<p>Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.</p>\n<p>Copyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.</p>\n<p>Frank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.</p>\n<p>Products and services described on this website are intended for<b>United States residents only</b>. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.\nPerformance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.\nThe S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\nThe MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.\nIndexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.\nCopyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.\nFrank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.\nProducts and services described on this website are intended forUnited States residents only. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.\nRussell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.\nRussell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166341337,"gmtCreate":1623993658229,"gmtModify":1631890026580,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;Nice&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;Nice&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ Nice [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166341337","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186572037,"gmtCreate":1623515117229,"gmtModify":1631893073911,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[正经]&nbsp;[正经]&nbsp;","listText":"[正经]&nbsp;[正经]&nbsp;","text":"[正经] [正经]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186572037","repostId":"2142378818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185349293,"gmtCreate":1623634714412,"gmtModify":1631890735595,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185349293","repostId":"2143785586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143785586","pubTimestamp":1623633840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143785586?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 09:24","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"3 Things New Investors Should Do in a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143785586","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You need these key investing principles now more than ever.","content":"<p>Bear markets are tough on all investors, but they can be especially nerve-wracking for new investors who are still learning the ropes. Some may feel they're doing something wrong because they're losing money, and that could tempt them to make decisions that turn a temporary loss into a permanent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. If you're new to investing and aren't sure how to handle a market crash, try some of these tips.</p>\n<h2>1. Focus on the long term</h2>\n<p>Losses can be devastating, but you have to remember that if you've invested in sound companies, they're probably temporary. You often don't need to do anything to fix the situation because it'll fix itself in time. In fact, trying to sell your investments off quickly before you lose more money or buying more feverishly to try to make up for your losses could just create more problems for you.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecc64949055e4e56eddc4186b015ebe8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>There are some cases where you should rethink your asset allocation. For example, if you only have your money invested in a couple of stocks and they're all in a single sector, that's a clear sign you're not diversified enough. You're putting yourself at risk for huge losses if your few investments don't do well, so it makes sense to move some of your money around. But when you're already well diversified and invested in large, stable companies, often the best thing you can do is leave your investments alone.</p>\n<h2>2. Stop checking your portfolio every day</h2>\n<p>If looking at your portfolio is stressing you out and tempting you to make rash moves, it's best to step back for a while. Don't check on it every day or every week. In reality, even month-to-month performance doesn't matter that much when you plan to hold a stock for decades.</p>\n<p>See if you can set up automated contributions if you haven't already. This automatically pulls money out of your bank account every month and invests it according to your direction. This is actually a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging. It's a great <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> for most investors, but especially beginners because it's so simple. You don't have to time the market. You just invest a regular amount of money on a predictable schedule. Sometimes, you'll buy when prices are high and other times when prices are low. In the end, you pay a fair price for all of your shares.</p>\n<h2>3. Consider an index fund</h2>\n<p>Index funds are a great way to diversify your portfolio, and you can easily use dollar-cost averaging to invest more in them over time. An index fund is a type of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- a bundle of stocks you purchase together. What sets them apart from other mutual funds or ETFs is that index funds are created to mimic the performance of their underlying index. So an S&amp;P 500 index fund contains the stocks of all 500 companies that make up the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>The idea is that when the index does well, the people invested in index funds do well too. And that strategy works well for a lot of people. Warren Buffett is a huge fan of index funds and once bet a top hedge fund manager that it couldn't outperform an S&amp;P 500 index fund over 10 years. Buffett won in a landslide.</p>\n<p>Index funds usually don't deliver the exact same return as the index itself because, like all mutual funds, they have some fees, known as expense ratios. But index fund expense ratios are usually extremely low. The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF only charges you $3 per year for every $10,000 you have invested in it. These low fees help you hold onto more of your earnings, which are often pretty substantial over the long term.</p>\n<p>If you'd invested $10,000 in the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF at the beginning of 2011, you'd have nearly $42,000 as of the end of May of this year. S&amp;P 500 index funds see their ups and downs. But again, as long as you're focused on the long term, these short-term fluctuations shouldn't worry you too much.</p>\n<p>It can be difficult to have confidence in your investing decisions when you're still new to the game, but in a market crash, second-guessing yourself can have devastating consequences. Take a good hard look at your portfolio to decide if there are any serious issues, like a lack of diversification, that need to be addressed. But otherwise, stay the course and keep reminding yourself that the market will recover eventually.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things New Investors Should Do in a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things New Investors Should Do in a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 09:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/3-things-new-investors-should-do-in-a-bear-market/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bear markets are tough on all investors, but they can be especially nerve-wracking for new investors who are still learning the ropes. Some may feel they're doing something wrong because they're ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/3-things-new-investors-should-do-in-a-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ISBC":"投资者银行","NGD":"New Gold",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/3-things-new-investors-should-do-in-a-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143785586","content_text":"Bear markets are tough on all investors, but they can be especially nerve-wracking for new investors who are still learning the ropes. Some may feel they're doing something wrong because they're losing money, and that could tempt them to make decisions that turn a temporary loss into a permanent one. If you're new to investing and aren't sure how to handle a market crash, try some of these tips.\n1. Focus on the long term\nLosses can be devastating, but you have to remember that if you've invested in sound companies, they're probably temporary. You often don't need to do anything to fix the situation because it'll fix itself in time. In fact, trying to sell your investments off quickly before you lose more money or buying more feverishly to try to make up for your losses could just create more problems for you.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nThere are some cases where you should rethink your asset allocation. For example, if you only have your money invested in a couple of stocks and they're all in a single sector, that's a clear sign you're not diversified enough. You're putting yourself at risk for huge losses if your few investments don't do well, so it makes sense to move some of your money around. But when you're already well diversified and invested in large, stable companies, often the best thing you can do is leave your investments alone.\n2. Stop checking your portfolio every day\nIf looking at your portfolio is stressing you out and tempting you to make rash moves, it's best to step back for a while. Don't check on it every day or every week. In reality, even month-to-month performance doesn't matter that much when you plan to hold a stock for decades.\nSee if you can set up automated contributions if you haven't already. This automatically pulls money out of your bank account every month and invests it according to your direction. This is actually a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging. It's a great one for most investors, but especially beginners because it's so simple. You don't have to time the market. You just invest a regular amount of money on a predictable schedule. Sometimes, you'll buy when prices are high and other times when prices are low. In the end, you pay a fair price for all of your shares.\n3. Consider an index fund\nIndex funds are a great way to diversify your portfolio, and you can easily use dollar-cost averaging to invest more in them over time. An index fund is a type of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- a bundle of stocks you purchase together. What sets them apart from other mutual funds or ETFs is that index funds are created to mimic the performance of their underlying index. So an S&P 500 index fund contains the stocks of all 500 companies that make up the S&P 500.\nThe idea is that when the index does well, the people invested in index funds do well too. And that strategy works well for a lot of people. Warren Buffett is a huge fan of index funds and once bet a top hedge fund manager that it couldn't outperform an S&P 500 index fund over 10 years. Buffett won in a landslide.\nIndex funds usually don't deliver the exact same return as the index itself because, like all mutual funds, they have some fees, known as expense ratios. But index fund expense ratios are usually extremely low. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF only charges you $3 per year for every $10,000 you have invested in it. These low fees help you hold onto more of your earnings, which are often pretty substantial over the long term.\nIf you'd invested $10,000 in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF at the beginning of 2011, you'd have nearly $42,000 as of the end of May of this year. S&P 500 index funds see their ups and downs. But again, as long as you're focused on the long term, these short-term fluctuations shouldn't worry you too much.\nIt can be difficult to have confidence in your investing decisions when you're still new to the game, but in a market crash, second-guessing yourself can have devastating consequences. Take a good hard look at your portfolio to decide if there are any serious issues, like a lack of diversification, that need to be addressed. But otherwise, stay the course and keep reminding yourself that the market will recover eventually.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117141139,"gmtCreate":1623125636321,"gmtModify":1631893073947,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What do you think on this stock? Going to bullish?[惊讶]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"What do you think on this stock? Going to bullish?[惊讶]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"What do you think on this stock? Going to bullish?[惊讶] [疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117141139","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114052592,"gmtCreate":1623038106416,"gmtModify":1631893073985,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish soon[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"Bullish soon[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"Bullish soon[看涨]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c856c7414028fbd02e7206e2b88a4c","width":"1080","height":"2501"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114052592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}