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Winwin8

Winwin8

选择投资的目的是什么？赚钱？学习？还是抵抗通货膨胀

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0勋章

2021-10-07

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-02

Good

分析师：苹果调整iPhone隐私政策或为进军广告市场

2021-09-28

Tq

宇婷：微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，“员工体验”烧起TO B新年第一把火

2021-09-28

Tq

“女股神”又减持24361股特斯拉，本月第七次

2021-09-26

Is it

中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？

2021-09-22

$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$ igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF

2021-09-21

$Apple(AAPL)$ yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.

2021-09-20

Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage

2021-09-18

先买在最低点

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-17

CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us

Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?

2021-09-16

Tq

美股期权上周创2万亿交易量记录，对本周五的四巫日意味着什么？

2021-09-15

Great

微软宣布600亿美元股票回购计划，季度派息提高11%

2021-09-10

I'm would like to share the stock market won't collapse. Short term downtrend won't be long. Keep investing is plan for ffuture retirement. 😜😀

“全都是泡沫”，股市会因美联储加息崩盘吗？

2021-09-03

CHPT future green?

Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.

CHPT future green?

2021-09-03

Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.

@Winwin8:$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ Should I sell or long hold? Pls advise

2021-09-02

$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ Should I sell or long hold? Pls advise

2021-09-02

Long hold stock

Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today

2021-08-26

great job buy more earn more//@Win2彰恒: My first post

@Win2彰恒:$Apple(AAPL)$ apple is the king, who can compete me?? Show me一日一苹果医生远离我

2021-08-20

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ a pcs of sweet

2021-07-08

买入价格是多少,正在大跌

瑞穗证券：维持蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>资本市场分析师认为，苹果最近对iPhone的隐私政策调整表明该公司可能会进军<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>主导的互联网广告市场。</p>\n<p>自从今年4月进行软件升级以来，多数iPhone都允许用户自行决定哪些应用可以追踪用户活动，而这些信息恰恰是帮助Facebook等企业发布精准广告并衡量广告效果的关键数据。</p>\n<p>这项名为应用追踪透明度（ATT）的功能引发了许多数字广告和移动游戏公司的担忧。例如，Facebook就认为此举会导致品牌在其平台上投放广告的费用增加，难度加大。</p>\n<p>“我们认为（隐私变化）表明苹果可能希望参与全球广告市场竞争。”加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师布拉德·埃里克森（Brad Erickson）在周四晚些时候发布的研报中说。他同时给予Facebook、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和谷歌母公司Alphabet“跑赢大盘”的股票评级。</p>\n<p>根据Refinitiv的数据，埃里克森对互联网公司的业绩预测和投资建议的准确度为4星。</p>\n<div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div><p>“苹果可以利用数据隐私作为掩护，同时在幕后投资搜索算法。”他认为苹果可能会通过类似于谷歌的搜索引擎赚取广告收入。</p>\n<p>如果广告主“别无选择，只能在缺乏苹果数据的情况下盲目投放”，那么谷歌旗下的YouTube和亚马逊旗下的Connected TV将成为新的选择，从中获益。</p>\n<p>Evercore ISI分析师也在8月指出，苹果可能在觊觎广告市场，他说：“打压第三方广告”可能让其在广告市场成功地迈出第一步。但他们也指出，ATT主要是为保护用户隐私，而非商业化手段。</p>\n<p>苹果、Facebook和Alphabet均未对此置评。</p>\n<div>\n<img 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n分析师：苹果调整iPhone隐私政策或为进军广告市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-02 09:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.sina.cn/it/2021-10-02/detail-iktzscyx7533236.d.html?vt=4><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>苹果延迟推出儿童安全功能：用户担心隐私安全，引发巨大争议\n\n\n\n\n新浪科技讯 北京时间10月2日上午消息，据报道，一位加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师认为，苹果最近对iPhone的隐私政策调整表明该公司可能会进军Facebook和谷歌主导的互联网广告市场。\n自从今年4月进行软件升级以来，多数iPhone都允许用户自行决定哪些应用可以追踪用户活动，而这些信息恰恰是帮助Facebook等企业发布精准广告并...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2021-10-02/detail-iktzscyx7533236.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/transform/667/w400h267/20211002/6421-d60da02f779d0e622dfc4283f9e4b186.jpg/w120h90l50t1a33.jpg","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2021-10-02/detail-iktzscyx7533236.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2172196977","content_text":"苹果延迟推出儿童安全功能：用户担心隐私安全，引发巨大争议\n\n\n\n\n新浪科技讯 北京时间10月2日上午消息，据报道，一位加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师认为，苹果最近对iPhone的隐私政策调整表明该公司可能会进军Facebook和谷歌主导的互联网广告市场。\n自从今年4月进行软件升级以来，多数iPhone都允许用户自行决定哪些应用可以追踪用户活动，而这些信息恰恰是帮助Facebook等企业发布精准广告并衡量广告效果的关键数据。\n这项名为应用追踪透明度（ATT）的功能引发了许多数字广告和移动游戏公司的担忧。例如，Facebook就认为此举会导致品牌在其平台上投放广告的费用增加，难度加大。\n“我们认为（隐私变化）表明苹果可能希望参与全球广告市场竞争。”加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师布拉德·埃里克森（Brad Erickson）在周四晚些时候发布的研报中说。他同时给予Facebook、亚马逊和谷歌母公司Alphabet“跑赢大盘”的股票评级。\n根据Refinitiv的数据，埃里克森对互联网公司的业绩预测和投资建议的准确度为4星。\n“苹果可以利用数据隐私作为掩护，同时在幕后投资搜索算法。”他认为苹果可能会通过类似于谷歌的搜索引擎赚取广告收入。\n如果广告主“别无选择，只能在缺乏苹果数据的情况下盲目投放”，那么谷歌旗下的YouTube和亚马逊旗下的Connected TV将成为新的选择，从中获益。\nEvercore ISI分析师也在8月指出，苹果可能在觊觎广告市场，他说：“打压第三方广告”可能让其在广告市场成功地迈出第一步。但他们也指出，ATT主要是为保护用户隐私，而非商业化手段。\n苹果、Facebook和Alphabet均未对此置评。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866412856,"gmtCreate":1632796144375,"gmtModify":1632797567418,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866412856","repostId":"2170864553","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2170864553","pubTimestamp":1632711905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170864553?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 11:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"宇婷：微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，“员工体验”烧起TO B新年第一把火","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170864553","media":"36氪","summary":"“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。今年2月初，微软发布员工体验平台Microsoft Viva，这一平台基于Microsoft 365构建，与Microsoft Teams集成在一起。不只是微软，美国时间1月28日，体验管理平台Qualtrics开盘上市。不久前的1月末，Workday 用7亿美元收购丹麦的员工体验平台 Peakon ，意图解决员工体验问题。员工体验又对TO B行业有着怎样的启发？刘健告诉TO B新势力。","content":"<html><body><article><p>本文由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>企服点评专家团<strong>宇婷</strong>原创。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13863258598/0\"/><p>36氪企服点评专家团——宇婷</p><p>————正文————</p><p>英国组织行为学教授琳达·格拉顿(Lynda Gratton)曾开展了一次针对79个国家，1246位高管的调研，目的是了解现代企业面临的最大挑战——人力资源问题。</p><p>调研结果是：“员工体验”将会给企业带来巨大红利，而大量公司尚未捕获这些红利。</p><p>“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。对于这股红利的追逐，在2021年被推向高潮。<strong>今年2月初，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布员工体验平台Microsoft Viva</strong>，这一平台基于Microsoft 365构建，与Microsoft Teams集成在一起。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）通过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>表达，“Viva要将员工成功所需的一切都直接整合起来。”</p><p><strong>不只是微软，美国时间1月28日，体验管理平台Qualtrics开盘上市。</strong>首日大涨超50%，市值超过270亿美元。<strong>不久前的1月末，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a> 用7亿美元收购丹麦的员工体验平台 Peakon ，</strong>意图解决员工体验问题。</p><p>目前热衷于员工体验的企业主要分为几类：<strong>第一是企业用户自身在内部推动。第二是国外如微软，国内如CDP等厂商已经有了自己的方法论。第三，本来就注重产品体验的互联网公司如阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等。</strong></p><p>在与多位业内人士沟通后，<strong>TO B新势力得到一个共识：尽管员工体验的概念在行业内已经火了多年，微软等国外巨头的动作才标志着员工体验从理念走向实际落地。</strong></p><p>海外巨头的动作是否会带来行业的巨大变革？员工体验又对TO B行业有着怎样的启发？TO B新势力第一时间访问了上下游相关厂商、有所行动的企业用户，以及一线产品经理，调研他们的想法。</p><p>一、近5年逐渐升温的潮流</p><p>起源于HR领域的员工体验话题在近5年逐渐升温，并替代了之前人力资源应用在成本、服务等领域的视角。</p><p>2018年，安永提出消费者级别的员工体验是全球人力资源职能的六大主题之一，其他主题还包括：颠覆性技术、永不结束的人才争夺战、目标导向与以人为本、非正式员工的崛起、劳动力全球化。但被关注了5年以上时间的员工体验话题，此前的实践并不多，第三方调研机构的数据加速了巨头入局的决心。</p><p>一位HR应用产品经理向TO B新势力举例：“员工刷完了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>，突然来到公司的平台，发现功能不支持手机端登录，录入数据要花费半小时。这个体验会把员工推走。”</p><p>国内知名的HR SaaS公司CDP集团首席运营官刘健深扎行业多年，他的观点也佐证了上述现状：<strong>“传统的</strong><strong>ERP</strong><strong>、</strong><strong>e-HR</strong><strong>系统实现的是信息化和无纸化，系统的主要用户就是HR，这些平台在现在的数字化和体验化大趋势下显然都已经过时了，随着新生代员工逐渐步入社会，陈旧的ERP和HR系统已经无法满足员工的需求了，很多企业用户都在主动寻找更好的工具和平台。”</strong></p><p>多年前，CDP集团董事长兼CEO王炜和SuccessFactors的创始人Aaron Au也都曾预测，接下来市场会大热的产品会是EXP，也就是员工体验。2012年王炜的公司就开始投入建设数字化的员工体验门户，试图成为第一个吃螃蟹的厂商。</p><p><strong>企业经营核心的核心是生产和物流。但现在，这一核心变成员工。人是企业经营的核心资产，员工体验的提升可以推动企业的效率提升，带来更高营业额。</strong></p><p>“体验”强调员工个性化及个人的感受。对于国内不同年龄段的员工来说工作的意义各不相同，70后是为了事业，80后为了理想，90后是为了自我实现，00后的想法更加多元。</p><p><strong>人力资源的理论也在发生变化，它正在从以前的木桶理论——补短板，转变为激励个体，让长板更长，获得竞争优势。</strong></p><p>“员工的需求已经超越了薪资、物质，需要的是精神性的激励、成就感以及对行为的及时认可。”</p><p>“HR manager变成了people manager，要更多关注自然人的属性。企业要想真正解决企业增长核心问题，则要落实到人。原来员工最关注的是加薪，福利这些显性指标。但只有做到对员工的即时激励，才能把效果直接传达到客户处。”刘健告诉TO B新势力。</p><p>新的需求正在发酵，催发出一个更大的市场。</p><p>二、从积分卡到找导师</p><p>据TO B新势力了解，员工体验项目并非空白，诸如CDP等企业，近几年已经落地了员工体验项目。如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6S.UK\">拜耳公司</a>中国区已经把员工的工资提出来一部分，用作即时激励和认可互动。当公司经理发现下属有一个很好的行为时，会立刻通过一张卡片去鼓励员工。员工感知到这是团队所鼓励的事情，是团队需要的工作态度，就会固化自己的行为，并形成习惯。</p><p>拜耳中国设置了多种卡片类型，最基础的卡片叫感谢卡，用于员工之间互相认可和感谢，作为纯精神激励。还有击掌、鼓掌等对应奖金的卡片，额度不大，发放由管理人员决定。最后达到的效果是员工在平台里获取了积分，拿积分兑换礼品和奖金。激励卡整体机制让企业能够提升员工的绩效，降低员工的离职率。</p><p><strong>无论对于公司还是员工个人，激励无外乎是三件事。第一，能否在平台上激发员工去挑战之前不敢挑战的事情。第二，从成长视角看待，激励与组织体系设计、培训体系设计、人才体系设计都息息相关，同时要与SaaS拥有关联性。第三，让员工在企业工作时，能够拥有一个较为轻松、符合人性而又比较温暖的环境。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">华住</a>等企业也已经有相关的实践，但具体的切入口与拜耳中国并不相同。</p><p>据TO B新势力了解，碧桂园、华住等企业是从全面薪酬的视角切入员工体验应用。HR领域之前更多关注的是现金薪酬，对非现金薪酬的关注较弱。此前，非现金薪酬的最大挑战在于员工的认可度低，HR没有动力推。</p><p>疫情以后，弹性工时用工，远程办公等话题越来越受到关注，全面薪酬的视角更加重要。在全面薪酬的视角中，员工的弹性福利，员工收到的认可和激励，都决定了员工是否更加认同所在的企业。此外，企业里面推了很多年的导师制——员工入职了以后找师傅，在员工体验下也有了新的方式。传统的方式找师傅，新人不知道去找谁，企业安排给他一个人，新员工也不知道这个人是不是真的能帮到他，或者师傅忙不忙。师傅可能也在想，我为什么要帮？这对我有什么好处？</p><p>新方法是，员工可以通过平台在线拜师。拜师之前先了解师傅们的情况，比如在哪个领域拥有专长，是否与自身情况所需相符。拜师还可以成为一个双向仪式，员工和师傅之间实现双向选择。拜师成功后，师傅会收到一些需要挑战的任务，完成任务即可以获得对应积分；徒弟转正或者第一次晋升也可以获得对应的积分。联动积分让整个过程变得更加有趣。这些核心刚需背后，是人群代际和技术因素发生了改变。</p><p>首先，<strong>新一代员工不缺乏物质，更加注重体验、关怀和文化。对精神的要求越来越高。其次，互联网、大数据等技术迭代，能够支撑起人力资源领域早已成熟的理论，使之落地。</strong></p><p>比如，借助员工在平台上留存的行为数据，而非调研和访谈，来更真实地了解员工行为。以往员工喜欢什么，想要得到什么？HR即使去问，可能也得不到答案。但是关注员工的日常行为，如通过弹性的福利平台让员工选择自己喜欢的东西。不同年龄段、偏好的真实数据，会自然呈现。</p><p>三、发源于C端，国内领先于海外</p><p>实际上员工体验发源于TO C领域，逐渐“侵入”到TO B领域。因为国内的需求丰富，一些厂商的实践甚至领先于海外。</p><p><strong>“其实这个行业还真没有人做得好。员工体验是整个服务的叠加。咨询公司做方法论的人比较多。但是对于体验的设计，真正能把理念+设计+平台+实践并不多。”一位行业资深人士告诉TO B新势力。</strong></p><p>冯博是CDP集团客户成功的负责人，他认为TO B之前更多是从专业视角来做设计产品的。比如从人力资源角度关注到怎么把薪资算准，怎么去做一些人事的管理、数据的处理。人力资源领域对人才的创新需求，引发了对员工体验的重视。</p><p>员工体验强调的是员工的感受，又因为涉及到公司组织文化。员工体验设计变成了一个继续要自上而下，又需要自下而上的双重过程。</p><p>“自上而下”的核心在于跟企业文化相关。员工的需求是无穷无尽的，HR不可能把所有的员工需求全部都满足。以哪个为切入点，具体要做哪个项目，做这个项目想达到什么效果，与企业想推广一个什么样的文化，想打造一个什么样的体系，想建立一个什么样的团队与企业文化密切相关。</p><p>“自下而上”则是指在TO B级产品中糅合产品体验的理念，需要从前期方案设计、客户需求沟通到交付落地全流程的不断迭代。</p><p>“员工体验也并非一蹴而就，它是一个需要持续改善、持续提升的过程。首先，要找到和企业可以共创的项目，每个企业对员工体验的关注点和抓手不一样。在第一阶段中，共创的项目是找到具体契合点的突破口。”</p><p>冯博分享了他在负责员工体验中的一些实际做法：“会通过标准问卷和调研的一个框架，根据之前的经验去问企业一些核心的问题。但是这个过程肯定不是死的，它是一个灵活的东西。”</p><p>员工体验不仅仅是产品细节的创新，也包括背后的机制设定、文化承载等。</p><p>“我们会出一些理解和经验给客户分享，然后会和客户一起想新的方法。甚至会有一些很细节的事情，比如说像员工体验一般都会有个slogan，到底用什么样的slogan会让员工好记还能植入文化。logo的设计、宣传视频的设计、具体方案的落地、卡片叫什么名字，带不带金额，这些都是要逐步分解。”</p><p>冯博还强调了三点：</p><p><strong>第一，把所有利益攸关方整合进来。</strong>所谓的利益攸关方会涉及到一些代表性的经理、员工、管理层或者HR。模拟一些场景，让这些员工带着角色去体验，最后会有结果的输出，以确定是否需要持续改进。</p><p><strong>还有一部分是员工的行为分析</strong>，比如说员工在做卡片的时候，哪些卡片发得比较多，什么时间点发的，由谁发给谁的，这些可以根据员工系统中留存的数据，进行提炼和思考，确定方案是否需要改进。</p><p>国内企业在员工体验上的特点有哪些？</p><p>刘健认为：“以全球性企业、大型外企为例，其最终决策是国际总部。而国内项目则没有这层因素。互联网企业、中国民营企业的决策权就在中国，能做的、敢做的变革幅度会更大。”</p><p>“外资企业受制于总部的管理，往往在中国会先着眼于一个个应用场景，从点上去突破和不断革新，而国内的大型民营企业或互联网企业现在更多的会从顶层设计开始，从面上全方位考虑新一代员工体验平台的搭建。”</p><p>随着更多厂商关注到这一领域，“员工体验”的壁垒主要是两点，其一是在服务能力上，能否与上百个厂家共同形成一套生态体系，一起交付方案。</p><p><strong>此外，员工所感受到的简单的前端，其背后要有一个整体支撑，比如供应商、物流等等能否打得通。</strong>核心不在前端应用，而在于后端服务支持体系。有一定咨询能力、方案设计能力，并且能够与HR和公司沟通，交付产品，结合起来才能实现服务。</p><p>刘健和同事去年推动了新一代员工体验平台WorkLife的搭建。很多员工离职后还会登录到WorkLife的平台中，因为这个平台打通了员工工作和生活，可以把员工的体检记录，保险，家庭保障，甚至是新的求职机会展示出来。</p><p>“员工获取体验通过带来良好感受的场景以及服务。服务的背后是企业用户在业务流程上的优化。流程背后是自动行为数据的捕获，比如员工互动的时间。”这是他直观的感受。</p><p>盖洛普(Gallup) 的一项研究曾提到：近年来持续致力员工体验提升的公司生产力提高了17%，营业收入增加了40%。Gartner的调研亦显示：员工体验是员工与组织的文化、技术和物理环境互动的结合。到2022年，在员工体验方面进行持续投资的企业将实现员工敬业度得分净提升10个百分点。</p><p>“体验”一词以往常常被用在“客户体验”这个短语里，今天的员工又何尝不是企业的客户呢？新一代员工所关注的，早已不仅仅是薪资，还有尊重和成就感。</p><p><strong>当所有员工都在成长，公司就在成长。</strong></p><p>想要了解更多行业知识、软件推荐、功能对比、工具测评，敬请关注36kr企服点评官方网站（www.36dianping.com）。轻点鼠标，发现更多高效率的企服软件！</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13787718934/0\"/><p>www.36dianping.com</p><p>[免责声明]</p><p>原文标题：《微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，「员工体验」烧起TO B新年第一把火 | 专家视角》</p><p>作者：宇婷</p><p>本文来源于36氪企服点评</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>宇婷：微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，“员工体验”烧起TO 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{font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宇婷：微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，“员工体验”烧起TO B新年第一把火\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 11:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109271107467c412a55&s=b><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文由36氪企服点评专家团宇婷原创。36氪企服点评专家团——宇婷————正文————英国组织行为学教授琳达·格拉顿(Lynda Gratton)曾开展了一次针对79个国家，1246位高管的调研，目的是了解现代企业面临的最大挑战——人力资源问题。调研结果是：“员工体验”将会给企业带来巨大红利，而大量公司尚未捕获这些红利。“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。对于这股红利的追逐，在2021年被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109271107467c412a55&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bcdd40747dbacf61bd55b0f5f96a16","relate_stocks":{"WDAY":"Workday","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109271107467c412a55&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2170864553","content_text":"本文由36氪企服点评专家团宇婷原创。36氪企服点评专家团——宇婷————正文————英国组织行为学教授琳达·格拉顿(Lynda Gratton)曾开展了一次针对79个国家，1246位高管的调研，目的是了解现代企业面临的最大挑战——人力资源问题。调研结果是：“员工体验”将会给企业带来巨大红利，而大量公司尚未捕获这些红利。“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。对于这股红利的追逐，在2021年被推向高潮。今年2月初，微软发布员工体验平台Microsoft Viva，这一平台基于Microsoft 365构建，与Microsoft Teams集成在一起。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）通过Twitter表达，“Viva要将员工成功所需的一切都直接整合起来。”不只是微软，美国时间1月28日，体验管理平台Qualtrics开盘上市。首日大涨超50%，市值超过270亿美元。不久前的1月末，Workday 用7亿美元收购丹麦的员工体验平台 Peakon ，意图解决员工体验问题。目前热衷于员工体验的企业主要分为几类：第一是企业用户自身在内部推动。第二是国外如微软，国内如CDP等厂商已经有了自己的方法论。第三，本来就注重产品体验的互联网公司如阿里、腾讯等。在与多位业内人士沟通后，TO B新势力得到一个共识：尽管员工体验的概念在行业内已经火了多年，微软等国外巨头的动作才标志着员工体验从理念走向实际落地。海外巨头的动作是否会带来行业的巨大变革？员工体验又对TO B行业有着怎样的启发？TO B新势力第一时间访问了上下游相关厂商、有所行动的企业用户，以及一线产品经理，调研他们的想法。一、近5年逐渐升温的潮流起源于HR领域的员工体验话题在近5年逐渐升温，并替代了之前人力资源应用在成本、服务等领域的视角。2018年，安永提出消费者级别的员工体验是全球人力资源职能的六大主题之一，其他主题还包括：颠覆性技术、永不结束的人才争夺战、目标导向与以人为本、非正式员工的崛起、劳动力全球化。但被关注了5年以上时间的员工体验话题，此前的实践并不多，第三方调研机构的数据加速了巨头入局的决心。一位HR应用产品经理向TO B新势力举例：“员工刷完了抖音，突然来到公司的平台，发现功能不支持手机端登录，录入数据要花费半小时。这个体验会把员工推走。”国内知名的HR SaaS公司CDP集团首席运营官刘健深扎行业多年，他的观点也佐证了上述现状：“传统的ERP、e-HR系统实现的是信息化和无纸化，系统的主要用户就是HR，这些平台在现在的数字化和体验化大趋势下显然都已经过时了，随着新生代员工逐渐步入社会，陈旧的ERP和HR系统已经无法满足员工的需求了，很多企业用户都在主动寻找更好的工具和平台。”多年前，CDP集团董事长兼CEO王炜和SuccessFactors的创始人Aaron Au也都曾预测，接下来市场会大热的产品会是EXP，也就是员工体验。2012年王炜的公司就开始投入建设数字化的员工体验门户，试图成为第一个吃螃蟹的厂商。企业经营核心的核心是生产和物流。但现在，这一核心变成员工。人是企业经营的核心资产，员工体验的提升可以推动企业的效率提升，带来更高营业额。“体验”强调员工个性化及个人的感受。对于国内不同年龄段的员工来说工作的意义各不相同，70后是为了事业，80后为了理想，90后是为了自我实现，00后的想法更加多元。人力资源的理论也在发生变化，它正在从以前的木桶理论——补短板，转变为激励个体，让长板更长，获得竞争优势。“员工的需求已经超越了薪资、物质，需要的是精神性的激励、成就感以及对行为的及时认可。”“HR manager变成了people manager，要更多关注自然人的属性。企业要想真正解决企业增长核心问题，则要落实到人。原来员工最关注的是加薪，福利这些显性指标。但只有做到对员工的即时激励，才能把效果直接传达到客户处。”刘健告诉TO B新势力。新的需求正在发酵，催发出一个更大的市场。二、从积分卡到找导师据TO B新势力了解，员工体验项目并非空白，诸如CDP等企业，近几年已经落地了员工体验项目。如拜耳公司中国区已经把员工的工资提出来一部分，用作即时激励和认可互动。当公司经理发现下属有一个很好的行为时，会立刻通过一张卡片去鼓励员工。员工感知到这是团队所鼓励的事情，是团队需要的工作态度，就会固化自己的行为，并形成习惯。拜耳中国设置了多种卡片类型，最基础的卡片叫感谢卡，用于员工之间互相认可和感谢，作为纯精神激励。还有击掌、鼓掌等对应奖金的卡片，额度不大，发放由管理人员决定。最后达到的效果是员工在平台里获取了积分，拿积分兑换礼品和奖金。激励卡整体机制让企业能够提升员工的绩效，降低员工的离职率。无论对于公司还是员工个人，激励无外乎是三件事。第一，能否在平台上激发员工去挑战之前不敢挑战的事情。第二，从成长视角看待，激励与组织体系设计、培训体系设计、人才体系设计都息息相关，同时要与SaaS拥有关联性。第三，让员工在企业工作时，能够拥有一个较为轻松、符合人性而又比较温暖的环境。戴尔、碧桂园、华住等企业也已经有相关的实践，但具体的切入口与拜耳中国并不相同。据TO B新势力了解，碧桂园、华住等企业是从全面薪酬的视角切入员工体验应用。HR领域之前更多关注的是现金薪酬，对非现金薪酬的关注较弱。此前，非现金薪酬的最大挑战在于员工的认可度低，HR没有动力推。疫情以后，弹性工时用工，远程办公等话题越来越受到关注，全面薪酬的视角更加重要。在全面薪酬的视角中，员工的弹性福利，员工收到的认可和激励，都决定了员工是否更加认同所在的企业。此外，企业里面推了很多年的导师制——员工入职了以后找师傅，在员工体验下也有了新的方式。传统的方式找师傅，新人不知道去找谁，企业安排给他一个人，新员工也不知道这个人是不是真的能帮到他，或者师傅忙不忙。师傅可能也在想，我为什么要帮？这对我有什么好处？新方法是，员工可以通过平台在线拜师。拜师之前先了解师傅们的情况，比如在哪个领域拥有专长，是否与自身情况所需相符。拜师还可以成为一个双向仪式，员工和师傅之间实现双向选择。拜师成功后，师傅会收到一些需要挑战的任务，完成任务即可以获得对应积分；徒弟转正或者第一次晋升也可以获得对应的积分。联动积分让整个过程变得更加有趣。这些核心刚需背后，是人群代际和技术因素发生了改变。首先，新一代员工不缺乏物质，更加注重体验、关怀和文化。对精神的要求越来越高。其次，互联网、大数据等技术迭代，能够支撑起人力资源领域早已成熟的理论，使之落地。比如，借助员工在平台上留存的行为数据，而非调研和访谈，来更真实地了解员工行为。以往员工喜欢什么，想要得到什么？HR即使去问，可能也得不到答案。但是关注员工的日常行为，如通过弹性的福利平台让员工选择自己喜欢的东西。不同年龄段、偏好的真实数据，会自然呈现。三、发源于C端，国内领先于海外实际上员工体验发源于TO C领域，逐渐“侵入”到TO B领域。因为国内的需求丰富，一些厂商的实践甚至领先于海外。“其实这个行业还真没有人做得好。员工体验是整个服务的叠加。咨询公司做方法论的人比较多。但是对于体验的设计，真正能把理念+设计+平台+实践并不多。”一位行业资深人士告诉TO B新势力。冯博是CDP集团客户成功的负责人，他认为TO B之前更多是从专业视角来做设计产品的。比如从人力资源角度关注到怎么把薪资算准，怎么去做一些人事的管理、数据的处理。人力资源领域对人才的创新需求，引发了对员工体验的重视。员工体验强调的是员工的感受，又因为涉及到公司组织文化。员工体验设计变成了一个继续要自上而下，又需要自下而上的双重过程。“自上而下”的核心在于跟企业文化相关。员工的需求是无穷无尽的，HR不可能把所有的员工需求全部都满足。以哪个为切入点，具体要做哪个项目，做这个项目想达到什么效果，与企业想推广一个什么样的文化，想打造一个什么样的体系，想建立一个什么样的团队与企业文化密切相关。“自下而上”则是指在TO B级产品中糅合产品体验的理念，需要从前期方案设计、客户需求沟通到交付落地全流程的不断迭代。“员工体验也并非一蹴而就，它是一个需要持续改善、持续提升的过程。首先，要找到和企业可以共创的项目，每个企业对员工体验的关注点和抓手不一样。在第一阶段中，共创的项目是找到具体契合点的突破口。”冯博分享了他在负责员工体验中的一些实际做法：“会通过标准问卷和调研的一个框架，根据之前的经验去问企业一些核心的问题。但是这个过程肯定不是死的，它是一个灵活的东西。”员工体验不仅仅是产品细节的创新，也包括背后的机制设定、文化承载等。“我们会出一些理解和经验给客户分享，然后会和客户一起想新的方法。甚至会有一些很细节的事情，比如说像员工体验一般都会有个slogan，到底用什么样的slogan会让员工好记还能植入文化。logo的设计、宣传视频的设计、具体方案的落地、卡片叫什么名字，带不带金额，这些都是要逐步分解。”冯博还强调了三点：第一，把所有利益攸关方整合进来。所谓的利益攸关方会涉及到一些代表性的经理、员工、管理层或者HR。模拟一些场景，让这些员工带着角色去体验，最后会有结果的输出，以确定是否需要持续改进。还有一部分是员工的行为分析，比如说员工在做卡片的时候，哪些卡片发得比较多，什么时间点发的，由谁发给谁的，这些可以根据员工系统中留存的数据，进行提炼和思考，确定方案是否需要改进。国内企业在员工体验上的特点有哪些？刘健认为：“以全球性企业、大型外企为例，其最终决策是国际总部。而国内项目则没有这层因素。互联网企业、中国民营企业的决策权就在中国，能做的、敢做的变革幅度会更大。”“外资企业受制于总部的管理，往往在中国会先着眼于一个个应用场景，从点上去突破和不断革新，而国内的大型民营企业或互联网企业现在更多的会从顶层设计开始，从面上全方位考虑新一代员工体验平台的搭建。”随着更多厂商关注到这一领域，“员工体验”的壁垒主要是两点，其一是在服务能力上，能否与上百个厂家共同形成一套生态体系，一起交付方案。此外，员工所感受到的简单的前端，其背后要有一个整体支撑，比如供应商、物流等等能否打得通。核心不在前端应用，而在于后端服务支持体系。有一定咨询能力、方案设计能力，并且能够与HR和公司沟通，交付产品，结合起来才能实现服务。刘健和同事去年推动了新一代员工体验平台WorkLife的搭建。很多员工离职后还会登录到WorkLife的平台中，因为这个平台打通了员工工作和生活，可以把员工的体检记录，保险，家庭保障，甚至是新的求职机会展示出来。“员工获取体验通过带来良好感受的场景以及服务。服务的背后是企业用户在业务流程上的优化。流程背后是自动行为数据的捕获，比如员工互动的时间。”这是他直观的感受。盖洛普(Gallup) 的一项研究曾提到：近年来持续致力员工体验提升的公司生产力提高了17%，营业收入增加了40%。Gartner的调研亦显示：员工体验是员工与组织的文化、技术和物理环境互动的结合。到2022年，在员工体验方面进行持续投资的企业将实现员工敬业度得分净提升10个百分点。“体验”一词以往常常被用在“客户体验”这个短语里，今天的员工又何尝不是企业的客户呢？新一代员工所关注的，早已不仅仅是薪资，还有尊重和成就感。当所有员工都在成长，公司就在成长。想要了解更多行业知识、软件推荐、功能对比、工具测评，敬请关注36kr企服点评官方网站（www.36dianping.com）。轻点鼠标，发现更多高效率的企服软件！www.36dianping.com[免责声明]原文标题：《微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，「员工体验」烧起TO B新年第一把火 | 专家视角》作者：宇婷本文来源于36氪企服点评","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866418274,"gmtCreate":1632795980198,"gmtModify":1632797567682,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866418274","repostId":"2170209678","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2170209678","pubTimestamp":1632794845,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170209678?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 10:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“女股神”又减持24361股特斯拉，本月第七次","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170209678","media":"新浪美股","summary":"凯茜-伍德的方舟投资公司周一进一步减持了特斯拉股份，利用该公司股价持续上涨之际套现更多资金。\n伍德的两只基金——方舟自动化技术和机器人ETF与方舟下一代互联网ETF——周一卖出了24361股特斯拉股票","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dc34afbcdec70a2651a1f667c1693c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>凯茜-伍德的方舟投资公司周一进一步减持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股份，利用该公司股价持续上涨之际套现更多资金。</p>\n<p>伍德的两只基金——方舟自动化技术和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>ETF与方舟下一代互联网ETF——周一卖出了24361股特斯拉股票，按收盘价计算价值约1928万美元。</p>\n<p>特斯拉股价周一上涨2.19%，收于791.36美元。</p>\n<p>包括这次出售在内，方舟投资本月已七次减持特斯拉股份，总计套现了约3.3亿美元。</p>\n<p>伍德的三只基金——方舟自动化技术和机器人ETF、方舟创新ETF与方舟下一代互联网ETF——都将特斯拉作为最大重仓股。目前这三只基金仍持有特斯拉超过405万股股票，价值约32亿美元。</p>\n<p>伍德在上周一次投资会议上重申了她对特斯拉的坚定看多立场，并戏言如果该股明年就能达到她给出的5年目标价、即3000美元，她将离开清仓离场。</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“女股神”又减持24361股特斯拉，本月第七次</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“女股神”又减持24361股特斯拉，本月第七次\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 10:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-28/doc-iktzscyx6773839.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>凯茜-伍德的方舟投资公司周一进一步减持了特斯拉股份，利用该公司股价持续上涨之际套现更多资金。\n伍德的两只基金——方舟自动化技术和机器人ETF与方舟下一代互联网ETF——周一卖出了24361股特斯拉股票，按收盘价计算价值约1928万美元。\n特斯拉股价周一上涨2.19%，收于791.36美元。\n包括这次出售在内，方舟投资本月已七次减持特斯拉股份，总计套现了约3.3亿美元。\n伍德的三只基金——方舟自动化...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-28/doc-iktzscyx6773839.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dc34afbcdec70a2651a1f667c1693c","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-28/doc-iktzscyx6773839.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170209678","content_text":"凯茜-伍德的方舟投资公司周一进一步减持了特斯拉股份，利用该公司股价持续上涨之际套现更多资金。\n伍德的两只基金——方舟自动化技术和机器人ETF与方舟下一代互联网ETF——周一卖出了24361股特斯拉股票，按收盘价计算价值约1928万美元。\n特斯拉股价周一上涨2.19%，收于791.36美元。\n包括这次出售在内，方舟投资本月已七次减持特斯拉股份，总计套现了约3.3亿美元。\n伍德的三只基金——方舟自动化技术和机器人ETF、方舟创新ETF与方舟下一代互联网ETF——都将特斯拉作为最大重仓股。目前这三只基金仍持有特斯拉超过405万股股票，价值约32亿美元。\n伍德在上周一次投资会议上重申了她对特斯拉的坚定看多立场，并戏言如果该股明年就能达到她给出的5年目标价、即3000美元，她将离开清仓离场。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868233950,"gmtCreate":1632649159870,"gmtModify":1632798768244,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it","listText":"Is it","text":"Is it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868233950","repostId":"2170176756","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2170176756","pubTimestamp":1632648965,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170176756?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 17:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170176756","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点","content":"<p><b>此轮利率上行可能有何异同?</b></p>\n<p><b>—2021年9月20日~9月26日</b></p>\n<p><b>报告发布时间：2021年09月26日</b></p>\n<p>摘要</p>\n<p>近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等。</p>\n<p>往前看，我们维持对长端利率短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，实际利率隐含~100bp上行空间。对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，变动速度及市场所身处环境更关键。</p>\n<p>那么，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?</p>\n<p>1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：如疫情见顶基本对应实际利率见底，而财政政策的进展将会成为催化剂</p>\n<p>2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕。因此相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落、短端利率同样上行这三点不同。这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格会阶段转向价值，但中期还是成长</p>\n<p>3、美股估值：不论标普还是纳指都低于年初利率抬升时水平</p>\n<p>4、美国与非美周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快。对比当前，中国增长已明显放缓，部分新兴还在受疫情影响，进而导致美国和非美增长裂口扩大。因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴资金有流出压力。</p>\n<p>本周焦点：与2月份相比，此轮利率上行可能有哪些异同之处?</p>\n<p>近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行了28个基点(图表1)。</p>\n<p>此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合(图表2)(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，符合我们一直强调的利率上行往往发生在预期阶段、而货币政策正式开始操作时通常反而见顶的历史规律(《关于QE减量的八问八答》)，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已经悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等等(图表3~5)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab925c8d4fcd3ab9a129741c48aac75\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f840bb19004d84ee570b9660e466b9d\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>往前看，我们依然维持对于长端利率在短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，以部分“纠正”7~8月份因为疫情升级导致的名义利率大幅回落特别是实际利率定价扭曲的问题。我们测算，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，而实际利率按照与M2和储蓄率的历史关系看可能距离隐含的均衡水平存在~100bp左右的上行空间(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)(图表7~8)。</p>\n<p>对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，2月上一轮利率上行和8月初底部以来的抬升已经不止一次说明了这一问题。相比之下，利率变动的速度以及市场所身处宏观和自身环境更为关键(图表6)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1047b92b61ce2c4d94d022184b63677\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>那么，结合本轮利率上行，如果如我们预期的那样还有进一步空间的话，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?</p>\n<p><b>1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：疫情见顶与财政政策催化剂</b></p>\n<p>从利率短期变化的微观节奏上看，上一轮疫情见顶(1月初)基本对应着实际利率见底，这与当前的环境类似(图表9)。我们注意到近期美国疫情逐步筑顶(图表3)，服务型消费也有回暖迹象(图表10)(《美国服务消费有回暖迹象(9月25日)》)，这也是当前实际利率见底的大背景。</p>\n<p>随后利率在2月初的快速上行，则与当时1.9万亿美元财政刺激出现积极进展的催化剂有直接关系(《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近 2021年2月1日~2月7日》)。往前看，美国9月底到10月中旬也面临一系列的重要的财政政策日程，如5500亿基建计划、包含加税方案的3.5亿财政支出、10月1日新一财年的支出预算(如不能顺利通过则面临政府关门)、10月中旬可能触及的债务上限(可能导致政府违约)(图表12~13)。</p>\n<p>与2月初类似，这一系列财政政策的变化(如新的支出法案通过、或债务上限提升后TGA账户再度回升，图表11)都有可能成为利率变化的催化剂，而中间过程的曲折则可能会对市场造成扰动，这也是我们一再提示对此需要重点关注的原因(《9月海外市场的几个关键变量》)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42013f9424a839f2e3394b1aee3557e5\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕</b></p>\n<p>虽然在短期微观环境、节奏和事件性催化剂上，此轮利率变化与2月初有一些可以比较和借鉴之处，但是大的经济周期和政策环境已然不同，进而可能导致利率上行的形态和节奏存在差异。</p>\n<p>一方面，美国增长已经不像去年底处于修复的初期，向上的二阶导数最快的阶段逐步过去。从目前增长路径来看，二季度同比高点过去后，三季度原本预计是环比高点，但由于疫情升级在7~8月份造成了较大冲击，三季度反而提供了一个环比低基数，进而有可能推动四季度增长出现不错的环比改善。不过，即便如此，增长最快阶段可能已经逐步过去，明年初或逐步回落(图表14)，除非接下来基建和新一轮财政刺激计划大超预期，但目前来看3.5万亿支出计划存在一定变数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e546324010cf46bb1ada447f75a75318\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>另一方面，货币政策环境已然不同。最新的9月FOMC会议已经传递了较为强烈的QE减量即将开始的信号、而且结束时间也可能比预期预想的更要更鹰派(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，这与2月初的环境是截然不同的(图表15，19)。</p>\n<p>因此综合这两点不同，如果我们上面假设的路径是对的，那么相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短(正式减量后逐步筑顶以反映增长预期的逐步回落)、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落(流动性退出预期纠正被严重扭曲的实际利率定价，而通胀预期则很难再出现年初大宗商品在当时增长加速和再通胀预期下的大幅抬升)、短端利率同样上行(体现货币政策退出的效果)这三点不同(图表16~18，20，22)。</p>\n<p>这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格在利率阶段性上行期间可能会再转向银行等价值股，但由于增长周期也可能逐步回落，我们预计中期可能还是以与大的宏观增长环境相关性较低的成长为主(图表35)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0d5eb532977fb96d503667c00c12b6c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47994d71735efe52ffd31ff6bd197bab\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d155963d8454026b91ad7ca914ea436\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18cb3e41001723f1c98d8172671c206\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"711\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c7d3b259e5df5407c186e97bba67e5\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>3、美股估值：低于年初利率抬升时水平</b></p>\n<p>得益于美股盈利在一二季度持续且大幅的修复，当前美股估值不论是标普500(当前22倍 vs. 年初25~26倍)、还是偏成长的纳斯达克(当前30倍 vs. 年初32倍)，反而都要低于年初利率上行时的水平(图表21)。</p>\n<p>当前流动性和增长环境能够支撑的估值也高于也要高于当时(图表72)。</p>\n<p><b>4、美国与非美的增长周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快</b></p>\n<p>除了上述美国自身增长和政策环境外，美国和非美地区的相对对比也已经出现很大变化。去年底和今年初上一轮利率上行期间，中国和大部分新兴市场也处于增长改善和预期加速向上的阶段，这解释了当时资金大量流入包括中国在内的新兴市场(图表26~27)、美元走弱、以及大宗商品的快速走高。</p>\n<p>但是对比当前，中国增长已经明显放缓，而部分新兴市场还在受疫情升级和缺乏疫苗困扰导致增长一度大幅回落，如越南(图表28~30)。美国和非美国家增长裂口的扩大、叠加美联储政策退出的临近和美债利率上行，可能会在经常账户原本因为疫情提供受损的背景下，资本项下也面临压力。</p>\n<p>因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴市场资金有流出压力的情形。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b289733eadc7cd82eefb3624048197ed\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58fe36084f4f8b333d587fcc004a4bb3\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>市场动态：FOMC传递鹰派信号，利率美元走强，实际利率抬升，价值跑赢成长</p>\n<p>资产表现：大宗&gt;股&gt;债;利率快速抬升，价值领涨</p>\n<p>过去一周，周一美欧股市一度受港股房地产板块大幅波动波及而回调。周三结束的9月FOMC议息会议从多方面看都更为鹰派，传递了较为强烈的减量信号且结束时间可能更早，但不同资产的反映却存在一定分歧。长端国债在当天并未出现明显抬升，但周四明显上行至1.45%，可能反应了鹰派信号的滞后效果。相比之下，美股市场的表现更为积极，后三天持续反弹修复。不过我们依然建议需要关注利率快速抬升、以及后续一系列财政政策不确定性的可能扰动。利率的上行导致价值股再度领先、FAAMNG为代表的成长股下跌，这与历次规律和我们强调的情形一致。</p>\n<p>整体来看，美元计价下，大宗&gt;股&gt;债;原油、印度、铜领涨，比特币、VIX多头、美国中概、港股领跌。分行业来看，能源、银行、消费者服务等领涨，耐用消费品、房地产、公用事业等领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率快速抬升至1.45%，上升约9bp，其中实际利率抬升10bp，通胀预期下降1bp;美国投资级信用利差走阔，高收益债信用利差收窄。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83e3d37e64e5da70743d3771c18d3a6\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3434b0e35a935180ca55d3c9140b7d\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>情绪仓位：美股转为多头，美元净多头增加</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例较上周继续抬升;欧美股市超买程度均抬升，日本、新兴回落;黄金、布油抬升;美股投机性仓位由空转多</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd76be0c1a5bd3741f8748b3369cb10\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb501a93af2a3df319bb559be1ecae29\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>资金流向：股市38周流入后首度流出</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，债市流入大幅放缓，股市在连续38周流入后首度转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，欧美股市转为流出，日本及新兴市场加速流入。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fc6232fa61ab31813c417b88d298ae\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>基本面与政策：欧美9月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> PMI均出现回落且不及预期</b></p>\n<p>美国方面，9月MarkitPMI相对低迷。9月Markit制造业PMI初值降至60.5，创2021年4月以来新低，一定程度上也继续体现了疫情的影响。分项来看，产出创2020年10月以来新低，新订单降至2021年3月以来新低，在手订单抬升至2007年以来最高。生产线仍然受到原材料短缺、运输挑战以及劳动力短缺的困扰。与此同时，出厂价格抬升至历史新高，供应时间也创有记录以来最长。9月Markit服务业PMI初值同样回落至54.4且不及预期。8月新屋开工增幅超预期，建筑许可同样抬升，新屋销售也连续第二个月上涨。</p>\n<p>欧洲方面，9月Markit制造业及服务业PMI均出现回落且不及预期，最大经济体德国的PMI数据同样低于预期，显示出持续的供应链中断以及最近天然气价格的飙升对欧洲经济复苏造成一定困扰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1a0196dcbec9084d24308e1215b636\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4b1b95f81ecf8fb9f3661a14f7b6033\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>市场估值：美股估值略低于增长和利率环境支撑水平</b></p>\n<p>当前标普500指数24.9倍静态P/E低于增长(9月Markit制造业PMI=60.5)和流动性(10年美债利率1.45%)能够支撑的合理水平(~25.3倍)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fa79a0c24e4743004813027fb125e1f\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 17:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html><strong>Kevin策略研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170176756","content_text":"此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等。\n往前看，我们维持对长端利率短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，实际利率隐含~100bp上行空间。对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，变动速度及市场所身处环境更关键。\n那么，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?\n1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：如疫情见顶基本对应实际利率见底，而财政政策的进展将会成为催化剂\n2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕。因此相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落、短端利率同样上行这三点不同。这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格会阶段转向价值，但中期还是成长\n3、美股估值：不论标普还是纳指都低于年初利率抬升时水平\n4、美国与非美周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快。对比当前，中国增长已明显放缓，部分新兴还在受疫情影响，进而导致美国和非美增长裂口扩大。因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴资金有流出压力。\n本周焦点：与2月份相比，此轮利率上行可能有哪些异同之处?\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行了28个基点(图表1)。\n此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合(图表2)(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，符合我们一直强调的利率上行往往发生在预期阶段、而货币政策正式开始操作时通常反而见顶的历史规律(《关于QE减量的八问八答》)，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已经悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等等(图表3~5)。\n\n往前看，我们依然维持对于长端利率在短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，以部分“纠正”7~8月份因为疫情升级导致的名义利率大幅回落特别是实际利率定价扭曲的问题。我们测算，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，而实际利率按照与M2和储蓄率的历史关系看可能距离隐含的均衡水平存在~100bp左右的上行空间(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)(图表7~8)。\n对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，2月上一轮利率上行和8月初底部以来的抬升已经不止一次说明了这一问题。相比之下，利率变动的速度以及市场所身处宏观和自身环境更为关键(图表6)。\n\n那么，结合本轮利率上行，如果如我们预期的那样还有进一步空间的话，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?\n1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：疫情见顶与财政政策催化剂\n从利率短期变化的微观节奏上看，上一轮疫情见顶(1月初)基本对应着实际利率见底，这与当前的环境类似(图表9)。我们注意到近期美国疫情逐步筑顶(图表3)，服务型消费也有回暖迹象(图表10)(《美国服务消费有回暖迹象(9月25日)》)，这也是当前实际利率见底的大背景。\n随后利率在2月初的快速上行，则与当时1.9万亿美元财政刺激出现积极进展的催化剂有直接关系(《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近 2021年2月1日~2月7日》)。往前看，美国9月底到10月中旬也面临一系列的重要的财政政策日程，如5500亿基建计划、包含加税方案的3.5亿财政支出、10月1日新一财年的支出预算(如不能顺利通过则面临政府关门)、10月中旬可能触及的债务上限(可能导致政府违约)(图表12~13)。\n与2月初类似，这一系列财政政策的变化(如新的支出法案通过、或债务上限提升后TGA账户再度回升，图表11)都有可能成为利率变化的催化剂，而中间过程的曲折则可能会对市场造成扰动，这也是我们一再提示对此需要重点关注的原因(《9月海外市场的几个关键变量》)。\n\n2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕\n虽然在短期微观环境、节奏和事件性催化剂上，此轮利率变化与2月初有一些可以比较和借鉴之处，但是大的经济周期和政策环境已然不同，进而可能导致利率上行的形态和节奏存在差异。\n一方面，美国增长已经不像去年底处于修复的初期，向上的二阶导数最快的阶段逐步过去。从目前增长路径来看，二季度同比高点过去后，三季度原本预计是环比高点，但由于疫情升级在7~8月份造成了较大冲击，三季度反而提供了一个环比低基数，进而有可能推动四季度增长出现不错的环比改善。不过，即便如此，增长最快阶段可能已经逐步过去，明年初或逐步回落(图表14)，除非接下来基建和新一轮财政刺激计划大超预期，但目前来看3.5万亿支出计划存在一定变数。\n\n另一方面，货币政策环境已然不同。最新的9月FOMC会议已经传递了较为强烈的QE减量即将开始的信号、而且结束时间也可能比预期预想的更要更鹰派(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，这与2月初的环境是截然不同的(图表15，19)。\n因此综合这两点不同，如果我们上面假设的路径是对的，那么相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短(正式减量后逐步筑顶以反映增长预期的逐步回落)、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落(流动性退出预期纠正被严重扭曲的实际利率定价，而通胀预期则很难再出现年初大宗商品在当时增长加速和再通胀预期下的大幅抬升)、短端利率同样上行(体现货币政策退出的效果)这三点不同(图表16~18，20，22)。\n这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格在利率阶段性上行期间可能会再转向银行等价值股，但由于增长周期也可能逐步回落，我们预计中期可能还是以与大的宏观增长环境相关性较低的成长为主(图表35)。\n\n3、美股估值：低于年初利率抬升时水平\n得益于美股盈利在一二季度持续且大幅的修复，当前美股估值不论是标普500(当前22倍 vs. 年初25~26倍)、还是偏成长的纳斯达克(当前30倍 vs. 年初32倍)，反而都要低于年初利率上行时的水平(图表21)。\n当前流动性和增长环境能够支撑的估值也高于也要高于当时(图表72)。\n4、美国与非美的增长周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快\n除了上述美国自身增长和政策环境外，美国和非美地区的相对对比也已经出现很大变化。去年底和今年初上一轮利率上行期间，中国和大部分新兴市场也处于增长改善和预期加速向上的阶段，这解释了当时资金大量流入包括中国在内的新兴市场(图表26~27)、美元走弱、以及大宗商品的快速走高。\n但是对比当前，中国增长已经明显放缓，而部分新兴市场还在受疫情升级和缺乏疫苗困扰导致增长一度大幅回落，如越南(图表28~30)。美国和非美国家增长裂口的扩大、叠加美联储政策退出的临近和美债利率上行，可能会在经常账户原本因为疫情提供受损的背景下，资本项下也面临压力。\n因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴市场资金有流出压力的情形。\n\n市场动态：FOMC传递鹰派信号，利率美元走强，实际利率抬升，价值跑赢成长\n资产表现：大宗>股>债;利率快速抬升，价值领涨\n过去一周，周一美欧股市一度受港股房地产板块大幅波动波及而回调。周三结束的9月FOMC议息会议从多方面看都更为鹰派，传递了较为强烈的减量信号且结束时间可能更早，但不同资产的反映却存在一定分歧。长端国债在当天并未出现明显抬升，但周四明显上行至1.45%，可能反应了鹰派信号的滞后效果。相比之下，美股市场的表现更为积极，后三天持续反弹修复。不过我们依然建议需要关注利率快速抬升、以及后续一系列财政政策不确定性的可能扰动。利率的上行导致价值股再度领先、FAAMNG为代表的成长股下跌，这与历次规律和我们强调的情形一致。\n整体来看，美元计价下，大宗>股>债;原油、印度、铜领涨，比特币、VIX多头、美国中概、港股领跌。分行业来看，能源、银行、消费者服务等领涨，耐用消费品、房地产、公用事业等领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率快速抬升至1.45%，上升约9bp，其中实际利率抬升10bp，通胀预期下降1bp;美国投资级信用利差走阔，高收益债信用利差收窄。\n\n情绪仓位：美股转为多头，美元净多头增加\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例较上周继续抬升;欧美股市超买程度均抬升，日本、新兴回落;黄金、布油抬升;美股投机性仓位由空转多\n\n资金流向：股市38周流入后首度流出\n过去一周，债市流入大幅放缓，股市在连续38周流入后首度转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，欧美股市转为流出，日本及新兴市场加速流入。\n\n基本面与政策：欧美9月Markit PMI均出现回落且不及预期\n美国方面，9月MarkitPMI相对低迷。9月Markit制造业PMI初值降至60.5，创2021年4月以来新低，一定程度上也继续体现了疫情的影响。分项来看，产出创2020年10月以来新低，新订单降至2021年3月以来新低，在手订单抬升至2007年以来最高。生产线仍然受到原材料短缺、运输挑战以及劳动力短缺的困扰。与此同时，出厂价格抬升至历史新高，供应时间也创有记录以来最长。9月Markit服务业PMI初值同样回落至54.4且不及预期。8月新屋开工增幅超预期，建筑许可同样抬升，新屋销售也连续第二个月上涨。\n欧洲方面，9月Markit制造业及服务业PMI均出现回落且不及预期，最大经济体德国的PMI数据同样低于预期，显示出持续的供应链中断以及最近天然气价格的飙升对欧洲经济复苏造成一定困扰。\n\n市场估值：美股估值略低于增长和利率环境支撑水平\n当前标普500指数24.9倍静态P/E低于增长(9月Markit制造业PMI=60.5)和流动性(10年美债利率1.45%)能够支撑的合理水平(~25.3倍)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869872642,"gmtCreate":1632275920486,"gmtModify":1632801552279,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$</a>&nbsp;igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$</a>&nbsp;igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF&nbsp;","text":"$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$ igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e103ee92395c3c7a1f4ef780d2e6fce","width":"1080","height":"2608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869872642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860560063,"gmtCreate":1632188871152,"gmtModify":1632802194019,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/948689f325006159e5a6b18e9f123ab1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860560063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860982782,"gmtCreate":1632121895246,"gmtModify":1632802702486,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage&nbsp;","listText":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage&nbsp;","text":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a337ecef694c8e6e9f00298debc505d","width":"1080","height":"2737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860982782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884576406,"gmtCreate":1631923513405,"gmtModify":1632805363305,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"先买在最低点","listText":"先买在最低点","text":"先买在最低点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884576406","repostId":"2168754240","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884126376,"gmtCreate":1631869615895,"gmtModify":1631890230709,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","listText":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","text":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884126376","repostId":"2167935325","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167935325","pubTimestamp":1631718924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2167935325?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167935325","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This electric vehicle infrastructure company is positioned to capitalize on the energy transition.","content":"<p>Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company <b>ChargePoint </b>(NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone public via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) or de-SPAC in the past year, ChargePoint is part of a class of stocks that have dramatically underperformed the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 20% year-to-date gain.</p>\n<p>Although it's a hypergrowth company in an attractive industry, there's an argument to be made that ChargePoint's stock price got a little ahead of itself. Now that it's at a discount, there's more room for upside for aspirational shareholders. Let's break down ChargePoint's performance so far this year to see whether the stock has become too cheap to ignore.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F642150%2F1-chargepoint-red-car.jpeg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Recovering from a tough year</h2>\n<p>Part of the reason ChargePoint's stock has come under fire could be its lackluster fiscal year (FY) 2021 performance. FY 2021 represents the 12 months ended Jan. 31 2021.&nbsp;The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on ChargePoint, as the company generated $146.5 million in revenue in FY 2021, just 1% higher than the $144.5 million in FY 2020.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's goal is to offer a comprehensive charging network and services for commercial customers, fleets, and passenger vehicles. Yet the reality is that commercial sales dominate its revenue mix, accounting for 75% of Q2 FY 2022 revenue.</p>\n<p>Commercial customers can include businesses and office parks that want to offer free or low-cost charging as a perk to their employees and customers. The problem is that this perk becomes a lot less enticing if folks aren't commuting to work or shopping in person, as was the case during the height of the pandemic. The shift to work from home could be permanent for many Americans, a trend that could prove somewhat of an issue for ChargePoint.</p>\n<h2>Scorching hot growth rate</h2>\n<p>Despite these headwinds, ChargePoint did an impressive job putting up a monster top-line figure of $97 million for the first half of FY 2022. Full-year guidance was just raised to a range of $225 million to $235 million, suggesting second-half revenue of around $130 million. If ChargePoint hits its goal, it would represent 57% revenue growth from FY 2021.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint has set some lofty revenue goals for the years ahead -- such as its target of nearly $1 billion in sales by FY 2025. Instead of speculating on the feasibility of that goal, let's focus instead on some positives the business is demonstrating right now.</p>\n<p>One nugget from the company's Q2 FY 2022 earnings call from early September was management's commentary on workplace sales. ChargePoint reported that it's now growing faster on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis than it did in Q2 FY 2020. \"Our business volume is now above pre-COVID levels, and our growth rate is above pre-COVID levels, but COVID is not over yet,\" said CEO Pasquale Romano on the company's Q2 FY 2022 call. \"What we have seen is a mix shift due to COVID, but the overall growth in the space has been more than compensated for by the increased arrival rate in cars relative to the pre-COVID levels that we have seen. So, with all of that said, as workplace returns, it's all upside.\" In sum, ChargePoint is doing just fine even though many folks still aren't going back to the office.</p>\n<p>The company models its revenue forecast based on the number of EVs hitting the road, not where or when people are charging. If ChargePoint is correct that the number of EVs on the road is what really matters when it comes to generating sales, then there's an argument that it could very well sustain a hypergrowth rate for years to come. ChargePoint said its model has proved accurate for the three quarters it has produced as a public company. That's a good start, but too short of a streak to garner much credit.</p>\n<h2>Diversifying the business</h2>\n<p>ChargePoint could stand a better chance at sustaining its high growth rate if it can diversify its revenue mix to include more residential and fleet sales. The good news is that both categories are showing signs of improvement. In the recent quarter, the residential segment was able to grow sales by 79% year over year. ChargePoint called out particular strides from multifamily housing as complexes look to offer charging for their residents.</p>\n<p>In August, ChargePoint announced it was acquiring ViriCiti, a fleet vehicle management provider. ChargePoint's fleet segment had a record Q2 by increasing billings by 187% year over year. Gaining competitive advantages in the fleet business could be game-changing for ChargePoint. From delivery vehicles such as those that <b>United Parcel Service</b> and <b>FedEx</b> use, to <b>Waste Management</b>'s massive garbage trucks, to the needs of trucking and logistics companies, the transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy solutions looks to be a harder challenge for fleets than for passenger cars. However, the fleet segment has a lot of long-term upside if ChargePoint can establish itself as a leader early on and continue to land key partnerships. ViriCiti should improve ChargePoint's offering by letting customers monitor their operations data and gain visibility into fleet performance.</p>\n<h2>The bottom line</h2>\n<p>ChargePoint stock's decline could present a buying opportunity for investors looking for an up-and-coming EV growth stock. Despite strong top-line growth, the company's path to profitability remains unclear. Management continues to prioritize revenue growth and customer acquisitions above positive cash flow or profitability, trusting that results will come with time as the industry matures.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's investment thesis could take years to play out, and the stock could be quite volatile in the process. But for investors willing to stomach the risks, ChargePoint looks like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the better EV stocks on the market today.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-15 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167935325","content_text":"Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone public via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) or de-SPAC in the past year, ChargePoint is part of a class of stocks that have dramatically underperformed the S&P 500's 20% year-to-date gain.\nAlthough it's a hypergrowth company in an attractive industry, there's an argument to be made that ChargePoint's stock price got a little ahead of itself. Now that it's at a discount, there's more room for upside for aspirational shareholders. Let's break down ChargePoint's performance so far this year to see whether the stock has become too cheap to ignore.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nRecovering from a tough year\nPart of the reason ChargePoint's stock has come under fire could be its lackluster fiscal year (FY) 2021 performance. FY 2021 represents the 12 months ended Jan. 31 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on ChargePoint, as the company generated $146.5 million in revenue in FY 2021, just 1% higher than the $144.5 million in FY 2020.\nChargePoint's goal is to offer a comprehensive charging network and services for commercial customers, fleets, and passenger vehicles. Yet the reality is that commercial sales dominate its revenue mix, accounting for 75% of Q2 FY 2022 revenue.\nCommercial customers can include businesses and office parks that want to offer free or low-cost charging as a perk to their employees and customers. The problem is that this perk becomes a lot less enticing if folks aren't commuting to work or shopping in person, as was the case during the height of the pandemic. The shift to work from home could be permanent for many Americans, a trend that could prove somewhat of an issue for ChargePoint.\nScorching hot growth rate\nDespite these headwinds, ChargePoint did an impressive job putting up a monster top-line figure of $97 million for the first half of FY 2022. Full-year guidance was just raised to a range of $225 million to $235 million, suggesting second-half revenue of around $130 million. If ChargePoint hits its goal, it would represent 57% revenue growth from FY 2021.\nChargePoint has set some lofty revenue goals for the years ahead -- such as its target of nearly $1 billion in sales by FY 2025. Instead of speculating on the feasibility of that goal, let's focus instead on some positives the business is demonstrating right now.\nOne nugget from the company's Q2 FY 2022 earnings call from early September was management's commentary on workplace sales. ChargePoint reported that it's now growing faster on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis than it did in Q2 FY 2020. \"Our business volume is now above pre-COVID levels, and our growth rate is above pre-COVID levels, but COVID is not over yet,\" said CEO Pasquale Romano on the company's Q2 FY 2022 call. \"What we have seen is a mix shift due to COVID, but the overall growth in the space has been more than compensated for by the increased arrival rate in cars relative to the pre-COVID levels that we have seen. So, with all of that said, as workplace returns, it's all upside.\" In sum, ChargePoint is doing just fine even though many folks still aren't going back to the office.\nThe company models its revenue forecast based on the number of EVs hitting the road, not where or when people are charging. If ChargePoint is correct that the number of EVs on the road is what really matters when it comes to generating sales, then there's an argument that it could very well sustain a hypergrowth rate for years to come. ChargePoint said its model has proved accurate for the three quarters it has produced as a public company. That's a good start, but too short of a streak to garner much credit.\nDiversifying the business\nChargePoint could stand a better chance at sustaining its high growth rate if it can diversify its revenue mix to include more residential and fleet sales. The good news is that both categories are showing signs of improvement. In the recent quarter, the residential segment was able to grow sales by 79% year over year. ChargePoint called out particular strides from multifamily housing as complexes look to offer charging for their residents.\nIn August, ChargePoint announced it was acquiring ViriCiti, a fleet vehicle management provider. ChargePoint's fleet segment had a record Q2 by increasing billings by 187% year over year. Gaining competitive advantages in the fleet business could be game-changing for ChargePoint. From delivery vehicles such as those that United Parcel Service and FedEx use, to Waste Management's massive garbage trucks, to the needs of trucking and logistics companies, the transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy solutions looks to be a harder challenge for fleets than for passenger cars. However, the fleet segment has a lot of long-term upside if ChargePoint can establish itself as a leader early on and continue to land key partnerships. ViriCiti should improve ChargePoint's offering by letting customers monitor their operations data and gain visibility into fleet performance.\nThe bottom line\nChargePoint stock's decline could present a buying opportunity for investors looking for an up-and-coming EV growth stock. Despite strong top-line growth, the company's path to profitability remains unclear. Management continues to prioritize revenue growth and customer acquisitions above positive cash flow or profitability, trusting that results will come with time as the industry matures.\nChargePoint's investment thesis could take years to play out, and the stock could be quite volatile in the process. But for investors willing to stomach the risks, ChargePoint looks like one of the better EV stocks on the market today.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885293141,"gmtCreate":1631794853383,"gmtModify":1631890230716,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885293141","repostId":"1162449625","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162449625","pubTimestamp":1631791724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162449625?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 19:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股期权上周创2万亿交易量记录，对本周五的四巫日意味着什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162449625","media":"期权世界","summary":"美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普50","content":"<p>美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普500指数(SPX)期权到期，以及1.4万亿以美元为标的各种期权将于本周五下午收市时到期，其中包括了除一月外第二大量级的单只个股期权。</p>\n<p>以下是由高盛提供的对于本周五四巫日的三点观察：</p>\n<p>1、相较于Delta-one衍生品交易量，普通期权交易量持续增长。今年第三季度，不论指数和个股期权都显示出交易量增加，然而Delta-one的交易量(包括期货和个股)却有所降低。而过往交易量远低于100%的SPX期权的名义交易量，本季度已较对应的期货交易量翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ba30fecf405935aa1701fcb7342967\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>个股期权9月至今的名义交易量已经达到5000亿美元/日，是标的个股交易量的140%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c80c9d643738fff37047e7a81978ac\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对于那些追求使用波浪理论交易的散户交易者来说，期权市场逐步成为交易流动性不可或缺的重要来源，这已经不是什么秘密了。</p>\n<p>2、刚过去的周五(9月10日)是美国上市期权市场的第一个2万亿美元名义交易量日。将期权名义交易量与股票市值相比，上周五也创下了最大交易量的记录。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efe7b4b37a823836c78fd4985cfaea69\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这2万亿的交易量中包含了9750亿的SPX期权，其中有3300亿在同一日到期，1200亿在下一交易日(即9月13日周一)到期。高盛注意到，在标普500连续5日的下跌中，这些巨额、深度看跌的期权，反映出投资者并不会在日常交易中提前做好计划并持续对冲，而是在市场发生下跌后才会想起对冲。</p>\n<p>3、大量对冲：在短线临近到期日的期权对冲交易量很大的情况下，Skew曲线的左侧(downside，即下行)斜率非常大。高盛指出，尽管横切挂钩标的和波动率曲面(Vol Surface)的skew曲线斜率很大，但SPX左侧的交易仍表现强劲。短线临期的期权对冲量在提升：1到3个月的SPX深度价外看跌期权的交易量处于底部范围，然而近两周来，有15%的距离到期日不足一个月的深度价外看跌期权价格却创下了自2020年新冠疫情爆发以来的新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c015acb929d6546d055da2c5e55bca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>临期的个股期权交易量也有相似的活跃度：总交易量的71%是由不足2周到期的临期期权构成的。这些交易集中于少数标的——58%的活跃交易集中于5个标的，84%的交易量集中于前50大个股。标普500指数成分股一个月的skew曲线在第三季度显著提升，相较于去年，现在的价格处于其97%的历史分位。</p>","source":"lsy1631791748419","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股期权上周创2万亿交易量记录，对本周五的四巫日意味着什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股期权上周创2万亿交易量记录，对本周五的四巫日意味着什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-16 19:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EzfOEeipR5emUj-EjSJcHQ><strong>期权世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普500指数(SPX)期权到期，以及1.4万亿以美元为标的各种期权将于本周五下午收市时到期，其中包括了除一月外第二大量级的单只个股期权。\n以下是由高盛提供的对于本周五四巫日的三点观察：\n1、相较于Delta...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EzfOEeipR5emUj-EjSJcHQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","GS":"高盛","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EzfOEeipR5emUj-EjSJcHQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162449625","content_text":"美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普500指数(SPX)期权到期，以及1.4万亿以美元为标的各种期权将于本周五下午收市时到期，其中包括了除一月外第二大量级的单只个股期权。\n以下是由高盛提供的对于本周五四巫日的三点观察：\n1、相较于Delta-one衍生品交易量，普通期权交易量持续增长。今年第三季度，不论指数和个股期权都显示出交易量增加，然而Delta-one的交易量(包括期货和个股)却有所降低。而过往交易量远低于100%的SPX期权的名义交易量，本季度已较对应的期货交易量翻倍。\n\n个股期权9月至今的名义交易量已经达到5000亿美元/日，是标的个股交易量的140%。\n\n对于那些追求使用波浪理论交易的散户交易者来说，期权市场逐步成为交易流动性不可或缺的重要来源，这已经不是什么秘密了。\n2、刚过去的周五(9月10日)是美国上市期权市场的第一个2万亿美元名义交易量日。将期权名义交易量与股票市值相比，上周五也创下了最大交易量的记录。\n\n这2万亿的交易量中包含了9750亿的SPX期权，其中有3300亿在同一日到期，1200亿在下一交易日(即9月13日周一)到期。高盛注意到，在标普500连续5日的下跌中，这些巨额、深度看跌的期权，反映出投资者并不会在日常交易中提前做好计划并持续对冲，而是在市场发生下跌后才会想起对冲。\n3、大量对冲：在短线临近到期日的期权对冲交易量很大的情况下，Skew曲线的左侧(downside，即下行)斜率非常大。高盛指出，尽管横切挂钩标的和波动率曲面(Vol Surface)的skew曲线斜率很大，但SPX左侧的交易仍表现强劲。短线临期的期权对冲量在提升：1到3个月的SPX深度价外看跌期权的交易量处于底部范围，然而近两周来，有15%的距离到期日不足一个月的深度价外看跌期权价格却创下了自2020年新冠疫情爆发以来的新高。\n\n临期的个股期权交易量也有相似的活跃度：总交易量的71%是由不足2周到期的临期期权构成的。这些交易集中于少数标的——58%的活跃交易集中于5个标的，84%的交易量集中于前50大个股。标普500指数成分股一个月的skew曲线在第三季度显著提升，相较于去年，现在的价格处于其97%的历史分位。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882180770,"gmtCreate":1631667060290,"gmtModify":1631890230717,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882180770","repostId":"2167563578","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167563578","pubTimestamp":1631673744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2167563578?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"微软宣布600亿美元股票回购计划，季度派息提高11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167563578","media":"智通财经","summary":"微软周二表示，该公司董事会已经批准一项新的股票回购计划，规模最高可达600亿美元;此项股票回购计划没有截止日期，可能随时终止。与此同时，该公司将季度派息提高11%至每股0.62美元，较上一季度增加0.","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>周二表示，该公司董事会已经批准一项新的股票回购计划，规模最高可达600亿美元;此项股票回购计划没有截止日期，可能随时终止。与此同时，该公司将季度派息提高11%至每股0.62美元，较上一季度增加0.06美元。</p>\n<p>此外，微软还任命布拉德·史密斯(Brad Smith)担任微软总裁及副董事长。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04d1df2796e4dda17fce10b8507fc896\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微软宣布600亿美元股票回购计划，季度派息提高11%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软宣布600亿美元股票回购计划，季度派息提高11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-15 10:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/560268.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>微软周二表示，该公司董事会已经批准一项新的股票回购计划，规模最高可达600亿美元;此项股票回购计划没有截止日期，可能随时终止。与此同时，该公司将季度派息提高11%至每股0.62美元，较上一季度增加0.06美元。\n此外，微软还任命布拉德·史密斯(Brad Smith)担任微软总裁及副董事长。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/560268.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a4cc202709ea1e312bac26753316a5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/560268.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167563578","content_text":"微软周二表示，该公司董事会已经批准一项新的股票回购计划，规模最高可达600亿美元;此项股票回购计划没有截止日期，可能随时终止。与此同时，该公司将季度派息提高11%至每股0.62美元，较上一季度增加0.06美元。\n此外，微软还任命布拉德·史密斯(Brad Smith)担任微软总裁及副董事长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883288836,"gmtCreate":1631244169825,"gmtModify":1631890230720,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm would like to share the stock market won't collapse. Short term downtrend won't be long. Keep investing is plan for ffuture retirement. 😜😀","listText":"I'm would like to share the stock market won't collapse. Short term downtrend won't be long. Keep investing is plan for ffuture retirement. 😜😀","text":"I'm would like to share the stock market won't collapse. Short term downtrend won't be long. Keep investing is plan for ffuture retirement. 😜😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883288836","repostId":"1130229315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130229315","pubTimestamp":1631241839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130229315?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 10:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“全都是泡沫”，股市会因美联储加息崩盘吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130229315","media":"36氪","summary":"美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次都会触犯众怒。\n\n传奇投资人、橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯近日表示，现在是美联储考虑加息的时候了，否则将悔之晚矣...美联储的工作不是为投资者赚钱，当经济强","content":"<blockquote>\n 美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次都会触犯众怒。\n</blockquote>\n<p>传奇投资人、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">橡树资本</a>联合创始人霍华德·马克斯近日表示，现在是美联储考虑加息的时候了，否则将悔之晚矣...美联储的工作不是为投资者赚钱，当经济强劲时，美联储必须停止紧急措施，让利率回升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71045a59cc5366e44558149a3fe54b04\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图1：十年期美债收益率走势（2020.8.24-今）来源：wind，36kr制图</p>\n<p>事实上，今年以来，资本市场最担忧的正是全球流动性收紧。在此预期下，再叠加通胀的影响，3月间十年美债收益率一度升破1.7%，更依赖低利率环境的科技股也遭遇了一轮杀跌。</p>\n<p>加息为何会引起恐慌？加息之后的股市，特别是更依赖低利率环境的科技股将何去可从？</p>\n<p><b>01 美联储加息为何如此重要？</b></p>\n<p>美联储的政策框架是典型的双目标制，即货币政策的制定围绕就业与通胀这两大核心目标。</p>\n<p>由此可以看到，在经济衰退期，美联储一般采取宽松的货币政策，抑制衰退；而在经济扩张期，美联储则一般采取前瞻性的加息操作，适度收紧货币政策，防止经济过热。</p>\n<p>美国在采取非常规货币政策如量化宽松（QE）后，虽然会采取 taper 正常（缩减购债规模和缩小美联储资产负债表）逐渐退出宽松。</p>\n<p>但从长期看，逐渐恢复经济的过程中，仍需要通过加息，使得市场流动性和通胀水平回到正常区间，以维持经济可持续增长，并防止系统性风险的发生。</p>\n<p><b>而美联储加息的一个直观结果是美国企业融资成本将增加，那么高度依赖融资的成长型、科技型企业将承受更大压力。</b></p>\n<p>毕竟，正是因为明显受益于低利率环境，纳指在2020年收涨43%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅。</p>\n<p>近日公布的7月美联储会议纪要显示，议息会议上首次明确讨论了缩减购债和之后的计划。其中，多数联储官员认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年晚些时候将放慢每月购买1200亿美元公债和抵押支持证券(MBS)的步伐。</p>\n<p><b>美联储内部对于何时开启缩减购债规模依然存在分歧</b>，部分官员认为应该很快减少并结束购债，有的则认为美联储应该耐心等待就业市场更充分地恢复。值得关注的是，会议纪要还特别强调缩债决定与加息时机无关。</p>\n<p><b>02 霍华德·马克斯：“全都是泡沫”</b></p>\n<p>霍华德指出，目前所有的资产类别都处在泡沫之中，虽然考虑到目前的利率水平，大多数资产价格并没有非常不理性，但是他所担忧的正是这样的利率水平。</p>\n<p>在他看来，“2008年全球金融危机之后，美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次加息都会触犯众怒。&nbsp;而在2019年初，利率又开始转而下行，我认为他们当时错失了机会。但这一次，在经济如此强劲复苏的情况下，我不想再看到他们犹豫不前。”</p>\n<p>他从当下所处的市场周期和经济周期的错位来解释为何美联储应当加息:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f84fab840fd7eba49113a5d8c2db065\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图2：市场周期叠加投资者心理周期的变化趋势 &nbsp;来源：彭博，36kr整理</p>\n<p>马克斯认为，通常来说，虽有延迟，但经济周期和市场周期的趋势大概率保持一致。&nbsp;股市的高点一般对应着经济的高点。当经济开始下行的时候，市场也会随之下跌，市场周期出现拐点后经济周期会随之响应。</p>\n<p>而现在的问题是，股价毫无疑问在高点，但是经济周期却处于初期，这就很不寻常。</p>\n<p>对于这种情况有两种解读，第一解读比较悲观，经济才刚开始复苏，股价已经这么高了，未来可能就涨不动了；另一种解读是，虽然现在股价很高，但经济还有上行空间，未来股价还能更高。</p>\n<p>马克斯并未透露自己倾向于那一种解读，他从其他方面解释了为何应当尽快加息：</p>\n<p>1、由于美联储、财政部的“放水”，经济展望自去年夏天开始转向积极。今年一季度实际GDP增长率达到6.4%，且预期直到2022年仍能保持高速增长。然而，美联储依然把利率控制在接近于0，每月购买1200亿美元的债券。<b>为什么冒着通货膨胀的风险，刺激一个表现如此之好的经济？</b></p>\n<p>2、过去16个月里，在美联储刺激经济体的同时，那些持有权益资产、以及名下有企业和房产的人明显得到了好处，还应看到经济刺激造成的财富分配急剧分化。</p>\n<p>3、如果美联储维持当前水平的宽松政策，未来的经济减速需要更多的刺激，美联储可运用的工具将会很有限。</p>\n<p><b>总而言之，马克斯认为虽然美联储自身都难以预测通胀走势，但是货币政策不是“永动机”。经济不太可能会被货币和财政政策永久地催高，并且还没有负面影响。</b></p>\n<p><b>03 回顾历史，加息其实没那么可怕</b></p>\n<p>如前文所述，每逢加息信号有所异动，例如资产定价之锚十年美债收益率上行，科技成长总会迎来一波抛售潮。</p>\n<p>但安信证券通过复盘近2015年以来的美联储加息周期，认为加息并没有那么可怕。</p>\n<p>对于美国股市影响的主要时点出现在加息初期和末期，<b>调整的幅度主要还是取决于经济预期。</b></p>\n<p>在2015-2018年加息周期中受盈利推动科技成长板块仍表现强势，整体受宏观和货币政策影响不大。</p>\n<p>彼时，在云计算、人工智能等技术革新的推动下，科技成长为主的纳斯纳克指数累计上行了75.3%，远超过标普500和道指的涨幅。</p>\n<p>细分行业板块来中，受益于技术革新带来的盈利增长，2017 年纳斯达克互联网指数上涨了165.2%、纳斯达克计算机指数上涨了109.7%。</p>\n<p>当然，加息初期市场容易受到情绪扰动，加息末期流动性收紧叠加经济衰退预期也会对股市造成较大冲击。</p>\n<p>例如，2018Q4时，由于加息导致5年美债利率和2年美债利率的期限利差率先出现倒挂，衰退预期叠加科技龙头公司盈利下滑，最终引发美股大跌。在调整阶段，跌幅通常是纳指&gt;标普500&gt;道指。</p>\n<p>因此，只要相关行业自身能够保持快速增长，未来科技成长板块仍可以走出独立行情。</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“全都是泡沫”，股市会因美联储加息崩盘吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“全都是泡沫”，股市会因美联储加息崩盘吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 10:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1390822542621443><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次都会触犯众怒。\n\n传奇投资人、橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯近日表示，现在是美联储考虑加息的时候了，否则将悔之晚矣...美联储的工作不是为投资者赚钱，当经济强劲时，美联储必须停止紧急措施，让利率回升。\n\n图1：十年期美债收益率走势（2020.8.24-今）来源：wind，36kr制图\n事实上，今年以来，资本市场最担忧的正是全球流动性收紧。在此预期下，再叠加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1390822542621443\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1390822542621443","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130229315","content_text":"美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次都会触犯众怒。\n\n传奇投资人、橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯近日表示，现在是美联储考虑加息的时候了，否则将悔之晚矣...美联储的工作不是为投资者赚钱，当经济强劲时，美联储必须停止紧急措施，让利率回升。\n\n图1：十年期美债收益率走势（2020.8.24-今）来源：wind，36kr制图\n事实上，今年以来，资本市场最担忧的正是全球流动性收紧。在此预期下，再叠加通胀的影响，3月间十年美债收益率一度升破1.7%，更依赖低利率环境的科技股也遭遇了一轮杀跌。\n加息为何会引起恐慌？加息之后的股市，特别是更依赖低利率环境的科技股将何去可从？\n01 美联储加息为何如此重要？\n美联储的政策框架是典型的双目标制，即货币政策的制定围绕就业与通胀这两大核心目标。\n由此可以看到，在经济衰退期，美联储一般采取宽松的货币政策，抑制衰退；而在经济扩张期，美联储则一般采取前瞻性的加息操作，适度收紧货币政策，防止经济过热。\n美国在采取非常规货币政策如量化宽松（QE）后，虽然会采取 taper 正常（缩减购债规模和缩小美联储资产负债表）逐渐退出宽松。\n但从长期看，逐渐恢复经济的过程中，仍需要通过加息，使得市场流动性和通胀水平回到正常区间，以维持经济可持续增长，并防止系统性风险的发生。\n而美联储加息的一个直观结果是美国企业融资成本将增加，那么高度依赖融资的成长型、科技型企业将承受更大压力。\n毕竟，正是因为明显受益于低利率环境，纳指在2020年收涨43%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅。\n近日公布的7月美联储会议纪要显示，议息会议上首次明确讨论了缩减购债和之后的计划。其中，多数联储官员认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年晚些时候将放慢每月购买1200亿美元公债和抵押支持证券(MBS)的步伐。\n美联储内部对于何时开启缩减购债规模依然存在分歧，部分官员认为应该很快减少并结束购债，有的则认为美联储应该耐心等待就业市场更充分地恢复。值得关注的是，会议纪要还特别强调缩债决定与加息时机无关。\n02 霍华德·马克斯：“全都是泡沫”\n霍华德指出，目前所有的资产类别都处在泡沫之中，虽然考虑到目前的利率水平，大多数资产价格并没有非常不理性，但是他所担忧的正是这样的利率水平。\n在他看来，“2008年全球金融危机之后，美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次加息都会触犯众怒。 而在2019年初，利率又开始转而下行，我认为他们当时错失了机会。但这一次，在经济如此强劲复苏的情况下，我不想再看到他们犹豫不前。”\n他从当下所处的市场周期和经济周期的错位来解释为何美联储应当加息:\n\n图2：市场周期叠加投资者心理周期的变化趋势  来源：彭博，36kr整理\n马克斯认为，通常来说，虽有延迟，但经济周期和市场周期的趋势大概率保持一致。 股市的高点一般对应着经济的高点。当经济开始下行的时候，市场也会随之下跌，市场周期出现拐点后经济周期会随之响应。\n而现在的问题是，股价毫无疑问在高点，但是经济周期却处于初期，这就很不寻常。\n对于这种情况有两种解读，第一解读比较悲观，经济才刚开始复苏，股价已经这么高了，未来可能就涨不动了；另一种解读是，虽然现在股价很高，但经济还有上行空间，未来股价还能更高。\n马克斯并未透露自己倾向于那一种解读，他从其他方面解释了为何应当尽快加息：\n1、由于美联储、财政部的“放水”，经济展望自去年夏天开始转向积极。今年一季度实际GDP增长率达到6.4%，且预期直到2022年仍能保持高速增长。然而，美联储依然把利率控制在接近于0，每月购买1200亿美元的债券。为什么冒着通货膨胀的风险，刺激一个表现如此之好的经济？\n2、过去16个月里，在美联储刺激经济体的同时，那些持有权益资产、以及名下有企业和房产的人明显得到了好处，还应看到经济刺激造成的财富分配急剧分化。\n3、如果美联储维持当前水平的宽松政策，未来的经济减速需要更多的刺激，美联储可运用的工具将会很有限。\n总而言之，马克斯认为虽然美联储自身都难以预测通胀走势，但是货币政策不是“永动机”。经济不太可能会被货币和财政政策永久地催高，并且还没有负面影响。\n03 回顾历史，加息其实没那么可怕\n如前文所述，每逢加息信号有所异动，例如资产定价之锚十年美债收益率上行，科技成长总会迎来一波抛售潮。\n但安信证券通过复盘近2015年以来的美联储加息周期，认为加息并没有那么可怕。\n对于美国股市影响的主要时点出现在加息初期和末期，调整的幅度主要还是取决于经济预期。\n在2015-2018年加息周期中受盈利推动科技成长板块仍表现强势，整体受宏观和货币政策影响不大。\n彼时，在云计算、人工智能等技术革新的推动下，科技成长为主的纳斯纳克指数累计上行了75.3%，远超过标普500和道指的涨幅。\n细分行业板块来中，受益于技术革新带来的盈利增长，2017 年纳斯达克互联网指数上涨了165.2%、纳斯达克计算机指数上涨了109.7%。\n当然，加息初期市场容易受到情绪扰动，加息末期流动性收紧叠加经济衰退预期也会对股市造成较大冲击。\n例如，2018Q4时，由于加息导致5年美债利率和2年美债利率的期限利差率先出现倒挂，衰退预期叠加科技龙头公司盈利下滑，最终引发美股大跌。在调整阶段，跌幅通常是纳指>标普500>道指。\n因此，只要相关行业自身能够保持快速增长，未来科技成长板块仍可以走出独立行情。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815069691,"gmtCreate":1630630616513,"gmtModify":1631890230721,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"title":"CHPT future green?","htmlText":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","listText":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","text":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815069691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815084426,"gmtCreate":1630630478865,"gmtModify":1631883826909,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","listText":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","text":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815084426","repostId":"812653471","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":812653471,"gmtCreate":1630586005793,"gmtModify":1631885747392,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;Should I sell or long&nbsp;hold? Pls advise&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;Should I sell or long&nbsp;hold? Pls advise&nbsp;","text":"$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ Should I sell or long hold? Pls advise","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02023e7133462943167aa9d0a382ebdf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812653471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812653471,"gmtCreate":1630586005793,"gmtModify":1631885747392,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;Should I sell or long&nbsp;hold? Pls advise&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;Should I sell or long&nbsp;hold? Pls advise&nbsp;","text":"$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ Should I sell or long hold? Pls advise","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02023e7133462943167aa9d0a382ebdf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812653471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812661047,"gmtCreate":1630584015789,"gmtModify":1631890230725,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long hold stock","listText":"Long hold stock","text":"Long hold stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812661047","repostId":"2164842854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2164842854","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630583617,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164842854?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164842854","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.","content":"<p><b>ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.</b> (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.</p>\n<p>The company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.</p>\n<p>The company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.</p>\n<p>\"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-02 19:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.</b> (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.</p>\n<p>The company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.</p>\n<p>The company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.</p>\n<p>\"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164842854","content_text":"ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.\nChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.\nThe company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.\nThe company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.\n\"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.\nChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.\nChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810383915,"gmtCreate":1629944297437,"gmtModify":1631890230731,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great job buy more earn more//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577331412124275\">@Win2彰恒</a>: My first post","listText":"great job buy more earn more//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577331412124275\">@Win2彰恒</a>: My first post","text":"great job buy more earn more//@Win2彰恒: My first post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810383915","repostId":"837105215","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":837105215,"gmtCreate":1629861355237,"gmtModify":1631889549933,"author":{"id":"3577331412124275","authorId":"3577331412124275","name":"Win2彰恒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420275e9371b4b4e52c2ddff8cbbf1f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577331412124275","idStr":"3577331412124275"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;apple is the king, who can compete me?? Show me一日一苹果医生远离我","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;apple is the king, who can compete me?? Show me一日一苹果医生远离我","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ apple is the king, who can compete me?? Show me一日一苹果医生远离我","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208d1cb1a378fe3d54affb3a088ecad3","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837105215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":836882748,"gmtCreate":1629469822684,"gmtModify":1631884544899,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;a pcs of sweet&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;a pcs of sweet&nbsp;","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$ a pcs of sweet","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a046c644b584ab86703ea2cdcfef86b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836882748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149599848,"gmtCreate":1625733839884,"gmtModify":1631890230731,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581737028877212","idStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买入价格是多少,正在大跌","listText":"买入价格是多少,正在大跌","text":"买入价格是多少,正在大跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149599848","repostId":"2149412348","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2149412348","pubTimestamp":1625725223,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2149412348?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 14:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"瑞穗证券：维持蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149412348","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了蔚来“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前影响全球供应链的半导体芯片短缺，该公司都有可能受到生产延迟的影响。然而，Rakesh仍然坚定地看涨。此外，就TipRanks而言,蔚来的分析师共识评级为“强势买入”，平均目标价为63.63美元。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他解释称，蔚来的销售额同比增长了112%。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。</p><p>Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。他表示，蔚来到年底的电池换电站数量可能超过预期。</p><p>关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前影响全球供应链的半导体芯片短缺，该公司都有可能受到生产延迟的影响。</p><p>然而，Rakesh仍然坚定地看涨。他还说，蔚来汽车最终将开始打入国际市场，这可能占其总销量的25-30%。他写道，蔚来“将继续成为中国第一家在海外取得商业成功的大型电动汽车原始设备制造商。”</p><p>此外，就TipRanks而言,蔚来的分析师共识评级为“强势买入”，平均目标价为63.63美元。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞穗证券：维持蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞穗证券：维持蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 14:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/509760.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他解释称，蔚来的销售额同比增长了112%。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。他表示，蔚来到年底的电池换电站数量可能超过预期。关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/509760.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b92523152bd36c422721756606e549","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/509760.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149412348","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他解释称，蔚来的销售额同比增长了112%。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。他表示，蔚来到年底的电池换电站数量可能超过预期。关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前影响全球供应链的半导体芯片短缺，该公司都有可能受到生产延迟的影响。然而，Rakesh仍然坚定地看涨。他还说，蔚来汽车最终将开始打入国际市场，这可能占其总销量的25-30%。他写道，蔚来“将继续成为中国第一家在海外取得商业成功的大型电动汽车原始设备制造商。”此外，就TipRanks而言,蔚来的分析师共识评级为“强势买入”，平均目标价为63.63美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":812653471,"gmtCreate":1630586005793,"gmtModify":1631885747392,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;Should I sell or long&nbsp;hold? Pls advise&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;Should I sell or long&nbsp;hold? Pls advise&nbsp;","text":"$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ Should I sell or long hold? Pls advise","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02023e7133462943167aa9d0a382ebdf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812653471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836882748,"gmtCreate":1629469822684,"gmtModify":1631884544899,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;a pcs of sweet&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;a pcs of sweet&nbsp;","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$ a pcs of sweet","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a046c644b584ab86703ea2cdcfef86b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836882748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140421603,"gmtCreate":1625669416902,"gmtModify":1631890230735,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla 会崩盘吗？？","listText":"Tesla 会崩盘吗？？","text":"Tesla 会崩盘吗？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140421603","repostId":"2149390127","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2149390127","pubTimestamp":1625663513,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2149390127?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉：一大波强劲的反弹正在酝酿？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149390127","media":"东方财富","summary":"不过，有迹象表明特斯拉的熊市可能已经结束，投资者正在利用其当前疲软的股价大量买入。看好特斯拉的投资者认为，交付量再创新高将促使股价延续上涨势头。该公司上周五发布数据称，尽管芯片短缺，且市场对中国市场的下滑感到担忧，但二季度特斯拉依然在全球范围内创纪录的交付了201,250辆汽车。他表示，其他电动汽车制造商将继续给特斯拉带来压力。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210707211155941v173hgvepcaxpjr\"/><p>大盘相比，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在今年的大部分时间里都表现不佳。因中国的销售放缓，且半导体供应持续短缺影响产能，加上其他传统汽车制造商也加入到电动汽车的竞争中来，投资者对特斯拉这家全球最大的电动汽车制造商感到略微失望。</p><p>不过，有迹象表明特斯拉的熊市可能已经结束，投资者正在利用其当前疲软的股价大量买入。特斯拉在过去的一个月里上涨了13%以上，几乎抹去了今年以来的全部跌幅。上周五收于678.90美元，截止今年以来只下跌了约4%。</p><p>看好特斯拉的投资者认为，交付量再创新高将促使股价延续上涨势头。该公司上周五发布数据称，尽管芯片短缺，且市场对中国市场的下滑感到担忧，但二季度特斯拉依然在全球范围内创纪录的交付了201,250辆汽车。</p><p>二季度的销量主要来自于Model 3和Model Y，这两款车分别在上海和加州弗里蒙特生产，因为中国和美国是特斯拉最大的市场。强劲的交付量暗示，即将在本月晚些时候公布的二季报或将表现靓丽。</p><p>Wedbush Securities分析师Daniel Ives认为，特斯拉在这个季度的表现令人印象深刻，下半年如果延续这一强劲表现的话，今年的销量应该能达到90万辆左右。</p><p>随着更多的汽车被特斯拉生产出来，市场对成长型股票的整体信心也将得到改善。</p><p>美国经济持续回暖，市场对通胀的担忧慢慢缓和，科技股的前景得到改善，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、Alphabet和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>等大型科技股也重新回到历史高点。</p><p><strong>分析师对特斯拉看法不一</strong></p><p>尽管出现了这些积极的信号，但华尔街分析师对该股在去年大涨700%之后今年还能否有亮眼的表现存疑。在24位分析人士中，10位建议买入，7位建议卖出，还有7位建议持有。Tip Ranks的数据显示，该股的平均目标价较上一次678.90美元的价格下跌了10.39%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>在最近的一份分析报告中指出，电动汽车市场竞争日益激烈是特斯拉股价在今年下滑的关键原因。</p><p>短期内，特斯拉在中国的增长势头将放缓，因为中国本土电动汽车品牌正在崛起，这些品牌与特斯拉的竞争或将引发价格战，因此可能拉低特斯拉的毛利率。</p><p>追踪特斯拉的瑞银分析师Hummel保持对特斯拉股票的中性评级，并将特斯拉的目标价从每股730美元降至660美元。他表示，其他电动汽车制造商将继续给特斯拉带来压力。因为竞争对手推出的电动汽车续航里程更高、充电性能更好、性价比也更高，可能会影响市场对特斯拉的长期估值。</p><p><strong>总结</strong></p><p>在第二季度特斯拉的产量超过分析师的预期之后，该公司的短期前景有所好转。因为它在解决供应链问题方面取得了成功，而供应链问题正在损害着其他传统汽车制造商的利益。</p><p>然而，在市场竞争不断加剧的情况下，特斯拉的表现或许还不足以推动股价大幅上涨。</p><p>（文章来源：英为财情）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉：一大波强劲的反弹正在酝酿？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉：一大波强劲的反弹正在酝酿？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070721115779cfd257&s=b><strong>东方财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大盘相比，特斯拉在今年的大部分时间里都表现不佳。因中国的销售放缓，且半导体供应持续短缺影响产能，加上其他传统汽车制造商也加入到电动汽车的竞争中来，投资者对特斯拉这家全球最大的电动汽车制造商感到略微失望。不过，有迹象表明特斯拉的熊市可能已经结束，投资者正在利用其当前疲软的股价大量买入。特斯拉在过去的一个月里上涨了13%以上，几乎抹去了今年以来的全部跌幅。上周五收于678.90美元，截止今年以来只下跌...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070721115779cfd257&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f099f6724852eed80c0925003dfca8","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070721115779cfd257&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2149390127","content_text":"大盘相比，特斯拉在今年的大部分时间里都表现不佳。因中国的销售放缓，且半导体供应持续短缺影响产能，加上其他传统汽车制造商也加入到电动汽车的竞争中来，投资者对特斯拉这家全球最大的电动汽车制造商感到略微失望。不过，有迹象表明特斯拉的熊市可能已经结束，投资者正在利用其当前疲软的股价大量买入。特斯拉在过去的一个月里上涨了13%以上，几乎抹去了今年以来的全部跌幅。上周五收于678.90美元，截止今年以来只下跌了约4%。看好特斯拉的投资者认为，交付量再创新高将促使股价延续上涨势头。该公司上周五发布数据称，尽管芯片短缺，且市场对中国市场的下滑感到担忧，但二季度特斯拉依然在全球范围内创纪录的交付了201,250辆汽车。二季度的销量主要来自于Model 3和Model Y，这两款车分别在上海和加州弗里蒙特生产，因为中国和美国是特斯拉最大的市场。强劲的交付量暗示，即将在本月晚些时候公布的二季报或将表现靓丽。Wedbush Securities分析师Daniel Ives认为，特斯拉在这个季度的表现令人印象深刻，下半年如果延续这一强劲表现的话，今年的销量应该能达到90万辆左右。随着更多的汽车被特斯拉生产出来，市场对成长型股票的整体信心也将得到改善。美国经济持续回暖，市场对通胀的担忧慢慢缓和，科技股的前景得到改善，Facebook、Alphabet和微软等大型科技股也重新回到历史高点。分析师对特斯拉看法不一尽管出现了这些积极的信号，但华尔街分析师对该股在去年大涨700%之后今年还能否有亮眼的表现存疑。在24位分析人士中，10位建议买入，7位建议卖出，还有7位建议持有。Tip Ranks的数据显示，该股的平均目标价较上一次678.90美元的价格下跌了10.39%。瑞银在最近的一份分析报告中指出，电动汽车市场竞争日益激烈是特斯拉股价在今年下滑的关键原因。短期内，特斯拉在中国的增长势头将放缓，因为中国本土电动汽车品牌正在崛起，这些品牌与特斯拉的竞争或将引发价格战，因此可能拉低特斯拉的毛利率。追踪特斯拉的瑞银分析师Hummel保持对特斯拉股票的中性评级，并将特斯拉的目标价从每股730美元降至660美元。他表示，其他电动汽车制造商将继续给特斯拉带来压力。因为竞争对手推出的电动汽车续航里程更高、充电性能更好、性价比也更高，可能会影响市场对特斯拉的长期估值。总结在第二季度特斯拉的产量超过分析师的预期之后，该公司的短期前景有所好转。因为它在解决供应链问题方面取得了成功，而供应链问题正在损害着其他传统汽车制造商的利益。然而，在市场竞争不断加剧的情况下，特斯拉的表现或许还不足以推动股价大幅上涨。（文章来源：英为财情）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":812661047,"gmtCreate":1630584015789,"gmtModify":1631890230725,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long hold stock","listText":"Long hold stock","text":"Long hold stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812661047","repostId":"2164842854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2164842854","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630583617,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164842854?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164842854","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.","content":"<p><b>ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.</b> (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.</p>\n<p>The company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.</p>\n<p>The company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.</p>\n<p>\"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy ChargePoint Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-02 19:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.</b> (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.</p>\n<p>The company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.</p>\n<p>The company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.</p>\n<p>\"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164842854","content_text":"ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CHPT) shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial reasults and raised its full-year guidance.\nChargePoint Holdings reported quarterly sales of $56.12 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $49.06 million.\nThe company raised its full-year 2022 sales guidance from a range of $195 million - $205 million to $225 million - $235 million which is above the estimate of $206.6 million.\nThe company also issued third-quarter sales guidance in the range of $60 million - $65 million which is also above the estimate of $54.6 million.\n\"We achieved record revenue, significantly grew our commercial, fleet and residential businesses, launched a charging integration with Mercedes, announced our agreement to acquire e-mobility technology provider has·to·be and acquired eBus and commercial vehicle management provider ViriCiti,\" said Pasquale Romano, President and CEO of ChargePoint.\nChargePoint Holdings Inc operates electric vehicle charging networks.\nChargePoint's stock was trading about 12.5% higher at $23.89 per share on Thursday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $49.48 and a 52-week low of $10.19.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864443076,"gmtCreate":1633141897362,"gmtModify":1633141897524,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864443076","repostId":"2172196977","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2172196977","pubTimestamp":1633137517,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2172196977?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-02 09:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"分析师：苹果调整iPhone隐私政策或为进军广告市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2172196977","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 北京时间10月2日上午消息，据报道，一位加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师认为，苹果最近对iPhone的隐私政策调整表明该公司可能会进军Facebook和谷歌主导的互联网广告市场。自从今年4月进行软件升级以来，多数iPhone都允许用户自行决定哪些应用可以追踪用户活动，而这些信息恰恰是帮助Facebook等企业发布精准广告并衡量广告效果的关键数据。“苹果可以利用数据隐私作为掩护，同时在幕后投资搜索算法。”苹果、Facebook和Alphabet均未对此置评。","content":"<html><body><p>\n<span>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20210905ac/717/w975h542/20210905/5531-2f8473e597f6362352bdc1c5694ac5b1.jpg\"/>\n<em><span></span></em>\n</span>\n<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>延迟推出儿童安全功能：用户担心隐私安全，引发巨大争议</font>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"368\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/118/w550h368/20211002/ebf4-49e70dec07ae984acdb6b39192b31f12.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技讯 北京时间10月2日上午消息，据报道，一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>资本市场分析师认为，苹果最近对iPhone的隐私政策调整表明该公司可能会进军<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>主导的互联网广告市场。</p>\n<p>自从今年4月进行软件升级以来，多数iPhone都允许用户自行决定哪些应用可以追踪用户活动，而这些信息恰恰是帮助Facebook等企业发布精准广告并衡量广告效果的关键数据。</p>\n<p>这项名为应用追踪透明度（ATT）的功能引发了许多数字广告和移动游戏公司的担忧。例如，Facebook就认为此举会导致品牌在其平台上投放广告的费用增加，难度加大。</p>\n<p>“我们认为（隐私变化）表明苹果可能希望参与全球广告市场竞争。”加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师布拉德·埃里克森（Brad Erickson）在周四晚些时候发布的研报中说。他同时给予Facebook、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和谷歌母公司Alphabet“跑赢大盘”的股票评级。</p>\n<p>根据Refinitiv的数据，埃里克森对互联网公司的业绩预测和投资建议的准确度为4星。</p>\n<div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div><p>“苹果可以利用数据隐私作为掩护，同时在幕后投资搜索算法。”他认为苹果可能会通过类似于谷歌的搜索引擎赚取广告收入。</p>\n<p>如果广告主“别无选择，只能在缺乏苹果数据的情况下盲目投放”，那么谷歌旗下的YouTube和亚马逊旗下的Connected TV将成为新的选择，从中获益。</p>\n<p>Evercore ISI分析师也在8月指出，苹果可能在觊觎广告市场，他说：“打压第三方广告”可能让其在广告市场成功地迈出第一步。但他们也指出，ATT主要是为保护用户隐私，而非商业化手段。</p>\n<p>苹果、Facebook和Alphabet均未对此置评。</p>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/>\n</div>\n</body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>分析师：苹果调整iPhone隐私政策或为进军广告市场</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n分析师：苹果调整iPhone隐私政策或为进军广告市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-02 09:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.sina.cn/it/2021-10-02/detail-iktzscyx7533236.d.html?vt=4><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>苹果延迟推出儿童安全功能：用户担心隐私安全，引发巨大争议\n\n\n\n\n新浪科技讯 北京时间10月2日上午消息，据报道，一位加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师认为，苹果最近对iPhone的隐私政策调整表明该公司可能会进军Facebook和谷歌主导的互联网广告市场。\n自从今年4月进行软件升级以来，多数iPhone都允许用户自行决定哪些应用可以追踪用户活动，而这些信息恰恰是帮助Facebook等企业发布精准广告并...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2021-10-02/detail-iktzscyx7533236.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/transform/667/w400h267/20211002/6421-d60da02f779d0e622dfc4283f9e4b186.jpg/w120h90l50t1a33.jpg","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2021-10-02/detail-iktzscyx7533236.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2172196977","content_text":"苹果延迟推出儿童安全功能：用户担心隐私安全，引发巨大争议\n\n\n\n\n新浪科技讯 北京时间10月2日上午消息，据报道，一位加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师认为，苹果最近对iPhone的隐私政策调整表明该公司可能会进军Facebook和谷歌主导的互联网广告市场。\n自从今年4月进行软件升级以来，多数iPhone都允许用户自行决定哪些应用可以追踪用户活动，而这些信息恰恰是帮助Facebook等企业发布精准广告并衡量广告效果的关键数据。\n这项名为应用追踪透明度（ATT）的功能引发了许多数字广告和移动游戏公司的担忧。例如，Facebook就认为此举会导致品牌在其平台上投放广告的费用增加，难度加大。\n“我们认为（隐私变化）表明苹果可能希望参与全球广告市场竞争。”加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师布拉德·埃里克森（Brad Erickson）在周四晚些时候发布的研报中说。他同时给予Facebook、亚马逊和谷歌母公司Alphabet“跑赢大盘”的股票评级。\n根据Refinitiv的数据，埃里克森对互联网公司的业绩预测和投资建议的准确度为4星。\n“苹果可以利用数据隐私作为掩护，同时在幕后投资搜索算法。”他认为苹果可能会通过类似于谷歌的搜索引擎赚取广告收入。\n如果广告主“别无选择，只能在缺乏苹果数据的情况下盲目投放”，那么谷歌旗下的YouTube和亚马逊旗下的Connected TV将成为新的选择，从中获益。\nEvercore ISI分析师也在8月指出，苹果可能在觊觎广告市场，他说：“打压第三方广告”可能让其在广告市场成功地迈出第一步。但他们也指出，ATT主要是为保护用户隐私，而非商业化手段。\n苹果、Facebook和Alphabet均未对此置评。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810383915,"gmtCreate":1629944297437,"gmtModify":1631890230731,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great job buy more earn more//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577331412124275\">@Win2彰恒</a>: My first post","listText":"great job buy more earn more//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577331412124275\">@Win2彰恒</a>: My first post","text":"great job buy more earn more//@Win2彰恒: My first post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810383915","repostId":"837105215","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":837105215,"gmtCreate":1629861355237,"gmtModify":1631889549933,"author":{"id":"3577331412124275","authorId":"3577331412124275","name":"Win2彰恒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420275e9371b4b4e52c2ddff8cbbf1f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577331412124275","authorIdStr":"3577331412124275"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;apple is the king, who can compete me?? Show me一日一苹果医生远离我","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;apple is the king, who can compete me?? Show me一日一苹果医生远离我","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ apple is the king, who can compete me?? Show me一日一苹果医生远离我","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208d1cb1a378fe3d54affb3a088ecad3","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837105215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158687898,"gmtCreate":1625147896614,"gmtModify":1631892721868,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;my first stock. Glad to see u keep going&nbsp;growth&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;my first stock. Glad to see u keep going&nbsp;growth&nbsp;","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$ my first stock. Glad to see u keep going growth","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a10cf8b8a2df4b2f2ed4c599fa41cebb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158687898","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869872642,"gmtCreate":1632275920486,"gmtModify":1632801552279,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$</a>&nbsp;igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$</a>&nbsp;igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF&nbsp;","text":"$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$ igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e103ee92395c3c7a1f4ef780d2e6fce","width":"1080","height":"2608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869872642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149599848,"gmtCreate":1625733839884,"gmtModify":1631890230731,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买入价格是多少,正在大跌","listText":"买入价格是多少,正在大跌","text":"买入价格是多少,正在大跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149599848","repostId":"2149412348","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2149412348","pubTimestamp":1625725223,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2149412348?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 14:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"瑞穗证券：维持蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149412348","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了蔚来“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前影响全球供应链的半导体芯片短缺，该公司都有可能受到生产延迟的影响。然而，Rakesh仍然坚定地看涨。此外，就TipRanks而言,蔚来的分析师共识评级为“强势买入”，平均目标价为63.63美元。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他解释称，蔚来的销售额同比增长了112%。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。</p><p>Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。他表示，蔚来到年底的电池换电站数量可能超过预期。</p><p>关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前影响全球供应链的半导体芯片短缺，该公司都有可能受到生产延迟的影响。</p><p>然而，Rakesh仍然坚定地看涨。他还说，蔚来汽车最终将开始打入国际市场，这可能占其总销量的25-30%。他写道，蔚来“将继续成为中国第一家在海外取得商业成功的大型电动汽车原始设备制造商。”</p><p>此外，就TipRanks而言,蔚来的分析师共识评级为“强势买入”，平均目标价为63.63美元。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞穗证券：维持蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞穗证券：维持蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 14:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/509760.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他解释称，蔚来的销售额同比增长了112%。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。他表示，蔚来到年底的电池换电站数量可能超过预期。关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/509760.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b92523152bd36c422721756606e549","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/509760.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149412348","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗证券Vijay Rakesh维持了蔚来(NIO.US)“买入”评级，目标价65美元。Rakesh对这家公司的成功和未来前景进行分析。他解释称，蔚来的销售额同比增长了112%。他预计蔚来的销售势头将持续到今年年底。Rakesh表示，这家汽车制造商将在2021年下半年迎来光明的前景。他表示，蔚来到年底的电池换电站数量可能超过预期。关于就不利因素，Rakesh详细说明，由于目前影响全球供应链的半导体芯片短缺，该公司都有可能受到生产延迟的影响。然而，Rakesh仍然坚定地看涨。他还说，蔚来汽车最终将开始打入国际市场，这可能占其总销量的25-30%。他写道，蔚来“将继续成为中国第一家在海外取得商业成功的大型电动汽车原始设备制造商。”此外，就TipRanks而言,蔚来的分析师共识评级为“强势买入”，平均目标价为63.63美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184040081,"gmtCreate":1623679020943,"gmtModify":1631885748275,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;this our future ev prospect stock👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>&nbsp;this our future ev prospect stock👍","text":"$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ this our future ev prospect stock👍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3300d60d535966ecf56bee8d6784e08b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184040081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860560063,"gmtCreate":1632188871152,"gmtModify":1632802194019,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/948689f325006159e5a6b18e9f123ab1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860560063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860982782,"gmtCreate":1632121895246,"gmtModify":1632802702486,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage&nbsp;","listText":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage&nbsp;","text":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a337ecef694c8e6e9f00298debc505d","width":"1080","height":"2737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860982782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884576406,"gmtCreate":1631923513405,"gmtModify":1632805363305,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"先买在最低点","listText":"先买在最低点","text":"先买在最低点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884576406","repostId":"2168754240","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884126376,"gmtCreate":1631869615895,"gmtModify":1631890230709,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","listText":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","text":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884126376","repostId":"2167935325","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167935325","pubTimestamp":1631718924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2167935325?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167935325","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This electric vehicle infrastructure company is positioned to capitalize on the energy transition.","content":"<p>Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company <b>ChargePoint </b>(NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone public via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) or de-SPAC in the past year, ChargePoint is part of a class of stocks that have dramatically underperformed the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 20% year-to-date gain.</p>\n<p>Although it's a hypergrowth company in an attractive industry, there's an argument to be made that ChargePoint's stock price got a little ahead of itself. Now that it's at a discount, there's more room for upside for aspirational shareholders. Let's break down ChargePoint's performance so far this year to see whether the stock has become too cheap to ignore.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F642150%2F1-chargepoint-red-car.jpeg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Recovering from a tough year</h2>\n<p>Part of the reason ChargePoint's stock has come under fire could be its lackluster fiscal year (FY) 2021 performance. FY 2021 represents the 12 months ended Jan. 31 2021.&nbsp;The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on ChargePoint, as the company generated $146.5 million in revenue in FY 2021, just 1% higher than the $144.5 million in FY 2020.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's goal is to offer a comprehensive charging network and services for commercial customers, fleets, and passenger vehicles. Yet the reality is that commercial sales dominate its revenue mix, accounting for 75% of Q2 FY 2022 revenue.</p>\n<p>Commercial customers can include businesses and office parks that want to offer free or low-cost charging as a perk to their employees and customers. The problem is that this perk becomes a lot less enticing if folks aren't commuting to work or shopping in person, as was the case during the height of the pandemic. The shift to work from home could be permanent for many Americans, a trend that could prove somewhat of an issue for ChargePoint.</p>\n<h2>Scorching hot growth rate</h2>\n<p>Despite these headwinds, ChargePoint did an impressive job putting up a monster top-line figure of $97 million for the first half of FY 2022. Full-year guidance was just raised to a range of $225 million to $235 million, suggesting second-half revenue of around $130 million. If ChargePoint hits its goal, it would represent 57% revenue growth from FY 2021.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint has set some lofty revenue goals for the years ahead -- such as its target of nearly $1 billion in sales by FY 2025. Instead of speculating on the feasibility of that goal, let's focus instead on some positives the business is demonstrating right now.</p>\n<p>One nugget from the company's Q2 FY 2022 earnings call from early September was management's commentary on workplace sales. ChargePoint reported that it's now growing faster on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis than it did in Q2 FY 2020. \"Our business volume is now above pre-COVID levels, and our growth rate is above pre-COVID levels, but COVID is not over yet,\" said CEO Pasquale Romano on the company's Q2 FY 2022 call. \"What we have seen is a mix shift due to COVID, but the overall growth in the space has been more than compensated for by the increased arrival rate in cars relative to the pre-COVID levels that we have seen. So, with all of that said, as workplace returns, it's all upside.\" In sum, ChargePoint is doing just fine even though many folks still aren't going back to the office.</p>\n<p>The company models its revenue forecast based on the number of EVs hitting the road, not where or when people are charging. If ChargePoint is correct that the number of EVs on the road is what really matters when it comes to generating sales, then there's an argument that it could very well sustain a hypergrowth rate for years to come. ChargePoint said its model has proved accurate for the three quarters it has produced as a public company. That's a good start, but too short of a streak to garner much credit.</p>\n<h2>Diversifying the business</h2>\n<p>ChargePoint could stand a better chance at sustaining its high growth rate if it can diversify its revenue mix to include more residential and fleet sales. The good news is that both categories are showing signs of improvement. In the recent quarter, the residential segment was able to grow sales by 79% year over year. ChargePoint called out particular strides from multifamily housing as complexes look to offer charging for their residents.</p>\n<p>In August, ChargePoint announced it was acquiring ViriCiti, a fleet vehicle management provider. ChargePoint's fleet segment had a record Q2 by increasing billings by 187% year over year. Gaining competitive advantages in the fleet business could be game-changing for ChargePoint. From delivery vehicles such as those that <b>United Parcel Service</b> and <b>FedEx</b> use, to <b>Waste Management</b>'s massive garbage trucks, to the needs of trucking and logistics companies, the transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy solutions looks to be a harder challenge for fleets than for passenger cars. However, the fleet segment has a lot of long-term upside if ChargePoint can establish itself as a leader early on and continue to land key partnerships. ViriCiti should improve ChargePoint's offering by letting customers monitor their operations data and gain visibility into fleet performance.</p>\n<h2>The bottom line</h2>\n<p>ChargePoint stock's decline could present a buying opportunity for investors looking for an up-and-coming EV growth stock. Despite strong top-line growth, the company's path to profitability remains unclear. Management continues to prioritize revenue growth and customer acquisitions above positive cash flow or profitability, trusting that results will come with time as the industry matures.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's investment thesis could take years to play out, and the stock could be quite volatile in the process. But for investors willing to stomach the risks, ChargePoint looks like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the better EV stocks on the market today.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-15 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167935325","content_text":"Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone public via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) or de-SPAC in the past year, ChargePoint is part of a class of stocks that have dramatically underperformed the S&P 500's 20% year-to-date gain.\nAlthough it's a hypergrowth company in an attractive industry, there's an argument to be made that ChargePoint's stock price got a little ahead of itself. Now that it's at a discount, there's more room for upside for aspirational shareholders. Let's break down ChargePoint's performance so far this year to see whether the stock has become too cheap to ignore.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nRecovering from a tough year\nPart of the reason ChargePoint's stock has come under fire could be its lackluster fiscal year (FY) 2021 performance. FY 2021 represents the 12 months ended Jan. 31 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on ChargePoint, as the company generated $146.5 million in revenue in FY 2021, just 1% higher than the $144.5 million in FY 2020.\nChargePoint's goal is to offer a comprehensive charging network and services for commercial customers, fleets, and passenger vehicles. Yet the reality is that commercial sales dominate its revenue mix, accounting for 75% of Q2 FY 2022 revenue.\nCommercial customers can include businesses and office parks that want to offer free or low-cost charging as a perk to their employees and customers. The problem is that this perk becomes a lot less enticing if folks aren't commuting to work or shopping in person, as was the case during the height of the pandemic. The shift to work from home could be permanent for many Americans, a trend that could prove somewhat of an issue for ChargePoint.\nScorching hot growth rate\nDespite these headwinds, ChargePoint did an impressive job putting up a monster top-line figure of $97 million for the first half of FY 2022. Full-year guidance was just raised to a range of $225 million to $235 million, suggesting second-half revenue of around $130 million. If ChargePoint hits its goal, it would represent 57% revenue growth from FY 2021.\nChargePoint has set some lofty revenue goals for the years ahead -- such as its target of nearly $1 billion in sales by FY 2025. Instead of speculating on the feasibility of that goal, let's focus instead on some positives the business is demonstrating right now.\nOne nugget from the company's Q2 FY 2022 earnings call from early September was management's commentary on workplace sales. ChargePoint reported that it's now growing faster on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis than it did in Q2 FY 2020. \"Our business volume is now above pre-COVID levels, and our growth rate is above pre-COVID levels, but COVID is not over yet,\" said CEO Pasquale Romano on the company's Q2 FY 2022 call. \"What we have seen is a mix shift due to COVID, but the overall growth in the space has been more than compensated for by the increased arrival rate in cars relative to the pre-COVID levels that we have seen. So, with all of that said, as workplace returns, it's all upside.\" In sum, ChargePoint is doing just fine even though many folks still aren't going back to the office.\nThe company models its revenue forecast based on the number of EVs hitting the road, not where or when people are charging. If ChargePoint is correct that the number of EVs on the road is what really matters when it comes to generating sales, then there's an argument that it could very well sustain a hypergrowth rate for years to come. ChargePoint said its model has proved accurate for the three quarters it has produced as a public company. That's a good start, but too short of a streak to garner much credit.\nDiversifying the business\nChargePoint could stand a better chance at sustaining its high growth rate if it can diversify its revenue mix to include more residential and fleet sales. The good news is that both categories are showing signs of improvement. In the recent quarter, the residential segment was able to grow sales by 79% year over year. ChargePoint called out particular strides from multifamily housing as complexes look to offer charging for their residents.\nIn August, ChargePoint announced it was acquiring ViriCiti, a fleet vehicle management provider. ChargePoint's fleet segment had a record Q2 by increasing billings by 187% year over year. Gaining competitive advantages in the fleet business could be game-changing for ChargePoint. From delivery vehicles such as those that United Parcel Service and FedEx use, to Waste Management's massive garbage trucks, to the needs of trucking and logistics companies, the transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy solutions looks to be a harder challenge for fleets than for passenger cars. However, the fleet segment has a lot of long-term upside if ChargePoint can establish itself as a leader early on and continue to land key partnerships. ViriCiti should improve ChargePoint's offering by letting customers monitor their operations data and gain visibility into fleet performance.\nThe bottom line\nChargePoint stock's decline could present a buying opportunity for investors looking for an up-and-coming EV growth stock. Despite strong top-line growth, the company's path to profitability remains unclear. Management continues to prioritize revenue growth and customer acquisitions above positive cash flow or profitability, trusting that results will come with time as the industry matures.\nChargePoint's investment thesis could take years to play out, and the stock could be quite volatile in the process. But for investors willing to stomach the risks, ChargePoint looks like one of the better EV stocks on the market today.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885293141,"gmtCreate":1631794853383,"gmtModify":1631890230716,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885293141","repostId":"1162449625","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162449625","pubTimestamp":1631791724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162449625?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 19:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股期权上周创2万亿交易量记录，对本周五的四巫日意味着什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162449625","media":"期权世界","summary":"美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普50","content":"<p>美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普500指数(SPX)期权到期，以及1.4万亿以美元为标的各种期权将于本周五下午收市时到期，其中包括了除一月外第二大量级的单只个股期权。</p>\n<p>以下是由高盛提供的对于本周五四巫日的三点观察：</p>\n<p>1、相较于Delta-one衍生品交易量，普通期权交易量持续增长。今年第三季度，不论指数和个股期权都显示出交易量增加，然而Delta-one的交易量(包括期货和个股)却有所降低。而过往交易量远低于100%的SPX期权的名义交易量，本季度已较对应的期货交易量翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ba30fecf405935aa1701fcb7342967\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>个股期权9月至今的名义交易量已经达到5000亿美元/日，是标的个股交易量的140%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c80c9d643738fff37047e7a81978ac\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对于那些追求使用波浪理论交易的散户交易者来说，期权市场逐步成为交易流动性不可或缺的重要来源，这已经不是什么秘密了。</p>\n<p>2、刚过去的周五(9月10日)是美国上市期权市场的第一个2万亿美元名义交易量日。将期权名义交易量与股票市值相比，上周五也创下了最大交易量的记录。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efe7b4b37a823836c78fd4985cfaea69\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这2万亿的交易量中包含了9750亿的SPX期权，其中有3300亿在同一日到期，1200亿在下一交易日(即9月13日周一)到期。高盛注意到，在标普500连续5日的下跌中，这些巨额、深度看跌的期权，反映出投资者并不会在日常交易中提前做好计划并持续对冲，而是在市场发生下跌后才会想起对冲。</p>\n<p>3、大量对冲：在短线临近到期日的期权对冲交易量很大的情况下，Skew曲线的左侧(downside，即下行)斜率非常大。高盛指出，尽管横切挂钩标的和波动率曲面(Vol Surface)的skew曲线斜率很大，但SPX左侧的交易仍表现强劲。短线临期的期权对冲量在提升：1到3个月的SPX深度价外看跌期权的交易量处于底部范围，然而近两周来，有15%的距离到期日不足一个月的深度价外看跌期权价格却创下了自2020年新冠疫情爆发以来的新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c015acb929d6546d055da2c5e55bca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>临期的个股期权交易量也有相似的活跃度：总交易量的71%是由不足2周到期的临期期权构成的。这些交易集中于少数标的——58%的活跃交易集中于5个标的，84%的交易量集中于前50大个股。标普500指数成分股一个月的skew曲线在第三季度显著提升，相较于去年，现在的价格处于其97%的历史分位。</p>","source":"lsy1631791748419","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股期权上周创2万亿交易量记录，对本周五的四巫日意味着什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股期权上周创2万亿交易量记录，对本周五的四巫日意味着什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-16 19:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EzfOEeipR5emUj-EjSJcHQ><strong>期权世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普500指数(SPX)期权到期，以及1.4万亿以美元为标的各种期权将于本周五下午收市时到期，其中包括了除一月外第二大量级的单只个股期权。\n以下是由高盛提供的对于本周五四巫日的三点观察：\n1、相较于Delta...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EzfOEeipR5emUj-EjSJcHQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","GS":"高盛","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EzfOEeipR5emUj-EjSJcHQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162449625","content_text":"美国股市已经从5日连跌的阴霾中走出，几乎追平了自2020年2月新冠疫情爆发以来的最长连续6日跌幅的纪录。投资者目光亦转向市场的技术面，尤其是即将于本周五到来的“四巫日”，届时将有约1.5万亿的标普500指数(SPX)期权到期，以及1.4万亿以美元为标的各种期权将于本周五下午收市时到期，其中包括了除一月外第二大量级的单只个股期权。\n以下是由高盛提供的对于本周五四巫日的三点观察：\n1、相较于Delta-one衍生品交易量，普通期权交易量持续增长。今年第三季度，不论指数和个股期权都显示出交易量增加，然而Delta-one的交易量(包括期货和个股)却有所降低。而过往交易量远低于100%的SPX期权的名义交易量，本季度已较对应的期货交易量翻倍。\n\n个股期权9月至今的名义交易量已经达到5000亿美元/日，是标的个股交易量的140%。\n\n对于那些追求使用波浪理论交易的散户交易者来说，期权市场逐步成为交易流动性不可或缺的重要来源，这已经不是什么秘密了。\n2、刚过去的周五(9月10日)是美国上市期权市场的第一个2万亿美元名义交易量日。将期权名义交易量与股票市值相比，上周五也创下了最大交易量的记录。\n\n这2万亿的交易量中包含了9750亿的SPX期权，其中有3300亿在同一日到期，1200亿在下一交易日(即9月13日周一)到期。高盛注意到，在标普500连续5日的下跌中，这些巨额、深度看跌的期权，反映出投资者并不会在日常交易中提前做好计划并持续对冲，而是在市场发生下跌后才会想起对冲。\n3、大量对冲：在短线临近到期日的期权对冲交易量很大的情况下，Skew曲线的左侧(downside，即下行)斜率非常大。高盛指出，尽管横切挂钩标的和波动率曲面(Vol Surface)的skew曲线斜率很大，但SPX左侧的交易仍表现强劲。短线临期的期权对冲量在提升：1到3个月的SPX深度价外看跌期权的交易量处于底部范围，然而近两周来，有15%的距离到期日不足一个月的深度价外看跌期权价格却创下了自2020年新冠疫情爆发以来的新高。\n\n临期的个股期权交易量也有相似的活跃度：总交易量的71%是由不足2周到期的临期期权构成的。这些交易集中于少数标的——58%的活跃交易集中于5个标的，84%的交易量集中于前50大个股。标普500指数成分股一个月的skew曲线在第三季度显著提升，相较于去年，现在的价格处于其97%的历史分位。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815069691,"gmtCreate":1630630616513,"gmtModify":1631890230721,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"title":"CHPT future green?","htmlText":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","listText":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","text":"Electric vehicle charging network company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) reported its fiscal 2022 second-quarter results last night, and investors cheered the news. ChargePoint is one of several companies that recently went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) projecting significant growth in its business. Investors jumped in trying to get a piece of the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815069691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140422159,"gmtCreate":1625669511671,"gmtModify":1631890230733,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla 会崩盘吗？","listText":"Tesla 会崩盘吗？","text":"Tesla 会崩盘吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140422159","repostId":"2149397688","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2149397688","pubTimestamp":1625659986,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2149397688?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-07 20:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"密封科技：公司目前没有与特斯拉签订销售合同","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149397688","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"每经AI快讯，密封科技7月7日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前没有与特斯拉签订销售合同。(记者 毕陆名)免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前核实。据此操作，风险自担。","content":"<div>\n<p>每经AI快讯，密封科技7月7日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前没有与特斯拉签订销售合同。(记者 毕陆名)免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前核实。据此操作，风险自担。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107072013467d4bf6d6&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>密封科技：公司目前没有与特斯拉签订销售合同</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n密封科技：公司目前没有与特斯拉签订销售合同\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 20:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107072013467d4bf6d6&s=b><strong>每日经济新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>每经AI快讯，密封科技7月7日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前没有与特斯拉签订销售合同。(记者 毕陆名)免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前核实。据此操作，风险自担。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107072013467d4bf6d6&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1626eb8fbfda09384173ea058b0eb875","relate_stocks":{"301020":"密封科技","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107072013467d4bf6d6&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2149397688","content_text":"每经AI快讯，密封科技7月7日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前没有与特斯拉签订销售合同。(记者 毕陆名)免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前核实。据此操作，风险自担。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866412856,"gmtCreate":1632796144375,"gmtModify":1632797567418,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tq","listText":"Tq","text":"Tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866412856","repostId":"2170864553","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2170864553","pubTimestamp":1632711905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170864553?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 11:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"宇婷：微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，“员工体验”烧起TO B新年第一把火","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170864553","media":"36氪","summary":"“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。今年2月初，微软发布员工体验平台Microsoft Viva，这一平台基于Microsoft 365构建，与Microsoft Teams集成在一起。不只是微软，美国时间1月28日，体验管理平台Qualtrics开盘上市。不久前的1月末，Workday 用7亿美元收购丹麦的员工体验平台 Peakon ，意图解决员工体验问题。员工体验又对TO B行业有着怎样的启发？刘健告诉TO B新势力。","content":"<html><body><article><p>本文由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>企服点评专家团<strong>宇婷</strong>原创。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13863258598/0\"/><p>36氪企服点评专家团——宇婷</p><p>————正文————</p><p>英国组织行为学教授琳达·格拉顿(Lynda Gratton)曾开展了一次针对79个国家，1246位高管的调研，目的是了解现代企业面临的最大挑战——人力资源问题。</p><p>调研结果是：“员工体验”将会给企业带来巨大红利，而大量公司尚未捕获这些红利。</p><p>“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。对于这股红利的追逐，在2021年被推向高潮。<strong>今年2月初，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布员工体验平台Microsoft Viva</strong>，这一平台基于Microsoft 365构建，与Microsoft Teams集成在一起。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）通过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>表达，“Viva要将员工成功所需的一切都直接整合起来。”</p><p><strong>不只是微软，美国时间1月28日，体验管理平台Qualtrics开盘上市。</strong>首日大涨超50%，市值超过270亿美元。<strong>不久前的1月末，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a> 用7亿美元收购丹麦的员工体验平台 Peakon ，</strong>意图解决员工体验问题。</p><p>目前热衷于员工体验的企业主要分为几类：<strong>第一是企业用户自身在内部推动。第二是国外如微软，国内如CDP等厂商已经有了自己的方法论。第三，本来就注重产品体验的互联网公司如阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等。</strong></p><p>在与多位业内人士沟通后，<strong>TO B新势力得到一个共识：尽管员工体验的概念在行业内已经火了多年，微软等国外巨头的动作才标志着员工体验从理念走向实际落地。</strong></p><p>海外巨头的动作是否会带来行业的巨大变革？员工体验又对TO B行业有着怎样的启发？TO B新势力第一时间访问了上下游相关厂商、有所行动的企业用户，以及一线产品经理，调研他们的想法。</p><p>一、近5年逐渐升温的潮流</p><p>起源于HR领域的员工体验话题在近5年逐渐升温，并替代了之前人力资源应用在成本、服务等领域的视角。</p><p>2018年，安永提出消费者级别的员工体验是全球人力资源职能的六大主题之一，其他主题还包括：颠覆性技术、永不结束的人才争夺战、目标导向与以人为本、非正式员工的崛起、劳动力全球化。但被关注了5年以上时间的员工体验话题，此前的实践并不多，第三方调研机构的数据加速了巨头入局的决心。</p><p>一位HR应用产品经理向TO B新势力举例：“员工刷完了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>，突然来到公司的平台，发现功能不支持手机端登录，录入数据要花费半小时。这个体验会把员工推走。”</p><p>国内知名的HR SaaS公司CDP集团首席运营官刘健深扎行业多年，他的观点也佐证了上述现状：<strong>“传统的</strong><strong>ERP</strong><strong>、</strong><strong>e-HR</strong><strong>系统实现的是信息化和无纸化，系统的主要用户就是HR，这些平台在现在的数字化和体验化大趋势下显然都已经过时了，随着新生代员工逐渐步入社会，陈旧的ERP和HR系统已经无法满足员工的需求了，很多企业用户都在主动寻找更好的工具和平台。”</strong></p><p>多年前，CDP集团董事长兼CEO王炜和SuccessFactors的创始人Aaron Au也都曾预测，接下来市场会大热的产品会是EXP，也就是员工体验。2012年王炜的公司就开始投入建设数字化的员工体验门户，试图成为第一个吃螃蟹的厂商。</p><p><strong>企业经营核心的核心是生产和物流。但现在，这一核心变成员工。人是企业经营的核心资产，员工体验的提升可以推动企业的效率提升，带来更高营业额。</strong></p><p>“体验”强调员工个性化及个人的感受。对于国内不同年龄段的员工来说工作的意义各不相同，70后是为了事业，80后为了理想，90后是为了自我实现，00后的想法更加多元。</p><p><strong>人力资源的理论也在发生变化，它正在从以前的木桶理论——补短板，转变为激励个体，让长板更长，获得竞争优势。</strong></p><p>“员工的需求已经超越了薪资、物质，需要的是精神性的激励、成就感以及对行为的及时认可。”</p><p>“HR manager变成了people manager，要更多关注自然人的属性。企业要想真正解决企业增长核心问题，则要落实到人。原来员工最关注的是加薪，福利这些显性指标。但只有做到对员工的即时激励，才能把效果直接传达到客户处。”刘健告诉TO B新势力。</p><p>新的需求正在发酵，催发出一个更大的市场。</p><p>二、从积分卡到找导师</p><p>据TO B新势力了解，员工体验项目并非空白，诸如CDP等企业，近几年已经落地了员工体验项目。如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6S.UK\">拜耳公司</a>中国区已经把员工的工资提出来一部分，用作即时激励和认可互动。当公司经理发现下属有一个很好的行为时，会立刻通过一张卡片去鼓励员工。员工感知到这是团队所鼓励的事情，是团队需要的工作态度，就会固化自己的行为，并形成习惯。</p><p>拜耳中国设置了多种卡片类型，最基础的卡片叫感谢卡，用于员工之间互相认可和感谢，作为纯精神激励。还有击掌、鼓掌等对应奖金的卡片，额度不大，发放由管理人员决定。最后达到的效果是员工在平台里获取了积分，拿积分兑换礼品和奖金。激励卡整体机制让企业能够提升员工的绩效，降低员工的离职率。</p><p><strong>无论对于公司还是员工个人，激励无外乎是三件事。第一，能否在平台上激发员工去挑战之前不敢挑战的事情。第二，从成长视角看待，激励与组织体系设计、培训体系设计、人才体系设计都息息相关，同时要与SaaS拥有关联性。第三，让员工在企业工作时，能够拥有一个较为轻松、符合人性而又比较温暖的环境。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">华住</a>等企业也已经有相关的实践，但具体的切入口与拜耳中国并不相同。</p><p>据TO B新势力了解，碧桂园、华住等企业是从全面薪酬的视角切入员工体验应用。HR领域之前更多关注的是现金薪酬，对非现金薪酬的关注较弱。此前，非现金薪酬的最大挑战在于员工的认可度低，HR没有动力推。</p><p>疫情以后，弹性工时用工，远程办公等话题越来越受到关注，全面薪酬的视角更加重要。在全面薪酬的视角中，员工的弹性福利，员工收到的认可和激励，都决定了员工是否更加认同所在的企业。此外，企业里面推了很多年的导师制——员工入职了以后找师傅，在员工体验下也有了新的方式。传统的方式找师傅，新人不知道去找谁，企业安排给他一个人，新员工也不知道这个人是不是真的能帮到他，或者师傅忙不忙。师傅可能也在想，我为什么要帮？这对我有什么好处？</p><p>新方法是，员工可以通过平台在线拜师。拜师之前先了解师傅们的情况，比如在哪个领域拥有专长，是否与自身情况所需相符。拜师还可以成为一个双向仪式，员工和师傅之间实现双向选择。拜师成功后，师傅会收到一些需要挑战的任务，完成任务即可以获得对应积分；徒弟转正或者第一次晋升也可以获得对应的积分。联动积分让整个过程变得更加有趣。这些核心刚需背后，是人群代际和技术因素发生了改变。</p><p>首先，<strong>新一代员工不缺乏物质，更加注重体验、关怀和文化。对精神的要求越来越高。其次，互联网、大数据等技术迭代，能够支撑起人力资源领域早已成熟的理论，使之落地。</strong></p><p>比如，借助员工在平台上留存的行为数据，而非调研和访谈，来更真实地了解员工行为。以往员工喜欢什么，想要得到什么？HR即使去问，可能也得不到答案。但是关注员工的日常行为，如通过弹性的福利平台让员工选择自己喜欢的东西。不同年龄段、偏好的真实数据，会自然呈现。</p><p>三、发源于C端，国内领先于海外</p><p>实际上员工体验发源于TO C领域，逐渐“侵入”到TO B领域。因为国内的需求丰富，一些厂商的实践甚至领先于海外。</p><p><strong>“其实这个行业还真没有人做得好。员工体验是整个服务的叠加。咨询公司做方法论的人比较多。但是对于体验的设计，真正能把理念+设计+平台+实践并不多。”一位行业资深人士告诉TO B新势力。</strong></p><p>冯博是CDP集团客户成功的负责人，他认为TO B之前更多是从专业视角来做设计产品的。比如从人力资源角度关注到怎么把薪资算准，怎么去做一些人事的管理、数据的处理。人力资源领域对人才的创新需求，引发了对员工体验的重视。</p><p>员工体验强调的是员工的感受，又因为涉及到公司组织文化。员工体验设计变成了一个继续要自上而下，又需要自下而上的双重过程。</p><p>“自上而下”的核心在于跟企业文化相关。员工的需求是无穷无尽的，HR不可能把所有的员工需求全部都满足。以哪个为切入点，具体要做哪个项目，做这个项目想达到什么效果，与企业想推广一个什么样的文化，想打造一个什么样的体系，想建立一个什么样的团队与企业文化密切相关。</p><p>“自下而上”则是指在TO B级产品中糅合产品体验的理念，需要从前期方案设计、客户需求沟通到交付落地全流程的不断迭代。</p><p>“员工体验也并非一蹴而就，它是一个需要持续改善、持续提升的过程。首先，要找到和企业可以共创的项目，每个企业对员工体验的关注点和抓手不一样。在第一阶段中，共创的项目是找到具体契合点的突破口。”</p><p>冯博分享了他在负责员工体验中的一些实际做法：“会通过标准问卷和调研的一个框架，根据之前的经验去问企业一些核心的问题。但是这个过程肯定不是死的，它是一个灵活的东西。”</p><p>员工体验不仅仅是产品细节的创新，也包括背后的机制设定、文化承载等。</p><p>“我们会出一些理解和经验给客户分享，然后会和客户一起想新的方法。甚至会有一些很细节的事情，比如说像员工体验一般都会有个slogan，到底用什么样的slogan会让员工好记还能植入文化。logo的设计、宣传视频的设计、具体方案的落地、卡片叫什么名字，带不带金额，这些都是要逐步分解。”</p><p>冯博还强调了三点：</p><p><strong>第一，把所有利益攸关方整合进来。</strong>所谓的利益攸关方会涉及到一些代表性的经理、员工、管理层或者HR。模拟一些场景，让这些员工带着角色去体验，最后会有结果的输出，以确定是否需要持续改进。</p><p><strong>还有一部分是员工的行为分析</strong>，比如说员工在做卡片的时候，哪些卡片发得比较多，什么时间点发的，由谁发给谁的，这些可以根据员工系统中留存的数据，进行提炼和思考，确定方案是否需要改进。</p><p>国内企业在员工体验上的特点有哪些？</p><p>刘健认为：“以全球性企业、大型外企为例，其最终决策是国际总部。而国内项目则没有这层因素。互联网企业、中国民营企业的决策权就在中国，能做的、敢做的变革幅度会更大。”</p><p>“外资企业受制于总部的管理，往往在中国会先着眼于一个个应用场景，从点上去突破和不断革新，而国内的大型民营企业或互联网企业现在更多的会从顶层设计开始，从面上全方位考虑新一代员工体验平台的搭建。”</p><p>随着更多厂商关注到这一领域，“员工体验”的壁垒主要是两点，其一是在服务能力上，能否与上百个厂家共同形成一套生态体系，一起交付方案。</p><p><strong>此外，员工所感受到的简单的前端，其背后要有一个整体支撑，比如供应商、物流等等能否打得通。</strong>核心不在前端应用，而在于后端服务支持体系。有一定咨询能力、方案设计能力，并且能够与HR和公司沟通，交付产品，结合起来才能实现服务。</p><p>刘健和同事去年推动了新一代员工体验平台WorkLife的搭建。很多员工离职后还会登录到WorkLife的平台中，因为这个平台打通了员工工作和生活，可以把员工的体检记录，保险，家庭保障，甚至是新的求职机会展示出来。</p><p>“员工获取体验通过带来良好感受的场景以及服务。服务的背后是企业用户在业务流程上的优化。流程背后是自动行为数据的捕获，比如员工互动的时间。”这是他直观的感受。</p><p>盖洛普(Gallup) 的一项研究曾提到：近年来持续致力员工体验提升的公司生产力提高了17%，营业收入增加了40%。Gartner的调研亦显示：员工体验是员工与组织的文化、技术和物理环境互动的结合。到2022年，在员工体验方面进行持续投资的企业将实现员工敬业度得分净提升10个百分点。</p><p>“体验”一词以往常常被用在“客户体验”这个短语里，今天的员工又何尝不是企业的客户呢？新一代员工所关注的，早已不仅仅是薪资，还有尊重和成就感。</p><p><strong>当所有员工都在成长，公司就在成长。</strong></p><p>想要了解更多行业知识、软件推荐、功能对比、工具测评，敬请关注36kr企服点评官方网站（www.36dianping.com）。轻点鼠标，发现更多高效率的企服软件！</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13787718934/0\"/><p>www.36dianping.com</p><p>[免责声明]</p><p>原文标题：《微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，「员工体验」烧起TO B新年第一把火 | 专家视角》</p><p>作者：宇婷</p><p>本文来源于36氪企服点评</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>宇婷：微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，“员工体验”烧起TO 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{font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宇婷：微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，“员工体验”烧起TO B新年第一把火\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 11:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109271107467c412a55&s=b><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文由36氪企服点评专家团宇婷原创。36氪企服点评专家团——宇婷————正文————英国组织行为学教授琳达·格拉顿(Lynda Gratton)曾开展了一次针对79个国家，1246位高管的调研，目的是了解现代企业面临的最大挑战——人力资源问题。调研结果是：“员工体验”将会给企业带来巨大红利，而大量公司尚未捕获这些红利。“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。对于这股红利的追逐，在2021年被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109271107467c412a55&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bcdd40747dbacf61bd55b0f5f96a16","relate_stocks":{"WDAY":"Workday","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109271107467c412a55&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2170864553","content_text":"本文由36氪企服点评专家团宇婷原创。36氪企服点评专家团——宇婷————正文————英国组织行为学教授琳达·格拉顿(Lynda Gratton)曾开展了一次针对79个国家，1246位高管的调研，目的是了解现代企业面临的最大挑战——人力资源问题。调研结果是：“员工体验”将会给企业带来巨大红利，而大量公司尚未捕获这些红利。“员工体验”是以员工为中心的全新人力资源战略。对于这股红利的追逐，在2021年被推向高潮。今年2月初，微软发布员工体验平台Microsoft Viva，这一平台基于Microsoft 365构建，与Microsoft Teams集成在一起。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）通过Twitter表达，“Viva要将员工成功所需的一切都直接整合起来。”不只是微软，美国时间1月28日，体验管理平台Qualtrics开盘上市。首日大涨超50%，市值超过270亿美元。不久前的1月末，Workday 用7亿美元收购丹麦的员工体验平台 Peakon ，意图解决员工体验问题。目前热衷于员工体验的企业主要分为几类：第一是企业用户自身在内部推动。第二是国外如微软，国内如CDP等厂商已经有了自己的方法论。第三，本来就注重产品体验的互联网公司如阿里、腾讯等。在与多位业内人士沟通后，TO B新势力得到一个共识：尽管员工体验的概念在行业内已经火了多年，微软等国外巨头的动作才标志着员工体验从理念走向实际落地。海外巨头的动作是否会带来行业的巨大变革？员工体验又对TO B行业有着怎样的启发？TO B新势力第一时间访问了上下游相关厂商、有所行动的企业用户，以及一线产品经理，调研他们的想法。一、近5年逐渐升温的潮流起源于HR领域的员工体验话题在近5年逐渐升温，并替代了之前人力资源应用在成本、服务等领域的视角。2018年，安永提出消费者级别的员工体验是全球人力资源职能的六大主题之一，其他主题还包括：颠覆性技术、永不结束的人才争夺战、目标导向与以人为本、非正式员工的崛起、劳动力全球化。但被关注了5年以上时间的员工体验话题，此前的实践并不多，第三方调研机构的数据加速了巨头入局的决心。一位HR应用产品经理向TO B新势力举例：“员工刷完了抖音，突然来到公司的平台，发现功能不支持手机端登录，录入数据要花费半小时。这个体验会把员工推走。”国内知名的HR SaaS公司CDP集团首席运营官刘健深扎行业多年，他的观点也佐证了上述现状：“传统的ERP、e-HR系统实现的是信息化和无纸化，系统的主要用户就是HR，这些平台在现在的数字化和体验化大趋势下显然都已经过时了，随着新生代员工逐渐步入社会，陈旧的ERP和HR系统已经无法满足员工的需求了，很多企业用户都在主动寻找更好的工具和平台。”多年前，CDP集团董事长兼CEO王炜和SuccessFactors的创始人Aaron Au也都曾预测，接下来市场会大热的产品会是EXP，也就是员工体验。2012年王炜的公司就开始投入建设数字化的员工体验门户，试图成为第一个吃螃蟹的厂商。企业经营核心的核心是生产和物流。但现在，这一核心变成员工。人是企业经营的核心资产，员工体验的提升可以推动企业的效率提升，带来更高营业额。“体验”强调员工个性化及个人的感受。对于国内不同年龄段的员工来说工作的意义各不相同，70后是为了事业，80后为了理想，90后是为了自我实现，00后的想法更加多元。人力资源的理论也在发生变化，它正在从以前的木桶理论——补短板，转变为激励个体，让长板更长，获得竞争优势。“员工的需求已经超越了薪资、物质，需要的是精神性的激励、成就感以及对行为的及时认可。”“HR manager变成了people manager，要更多关注自然人的属性。企业要想真正解决企业增长核心问题，则要落实到人。原来员工最关注的是加薪，福利这些显性指标。但只有做到对员工的即时激励，才能把效果直接传达到客户处。”刘健告诉TO B新势力。新的需求正在发酵，催发出一个更大的市场。二、从积分卡到找导师据TO B新势力了解，员工体验项目并非空白，诸如CDP等企业，近几年已经落地了员工体验项目。如拜耳公司中国区已经把员工的工资提出来一部分，用作即时激励和认可互动。当公司经理发现下属有一个很好的行为时，会立刻通过一张卡片去鼓励员工。员工感知到这是团队所鼓励的事情，是团队需要的工作态度，就会固化自己的行为，并形成习惯。拜耳中国设置了多种卡片类型，最基础的卡片叫感谢卡，用于员工之间互相认可和感谢，作为纯精神激励。还有击掌、鼓掌等对应奖金的卡片，额度不大，发放由管理人员决定。最后达到的效果是员工在平台里获取了积分，拿积分兑换礼品和奖金。激励卡整体机制让企业能够提升员工的绩效，降低员工的离职率。无论对于公司还是员工个人，激励无外乎是三件事。第一，能否在平台上激发员工去挑战之前不敢挑战的事情。第二，从成长视角看待，激励与组织体系设计、培训体系设计、人才体系设计都息息相关，同时要与SaaS拥有关联性。第三，让员工在企业工作时，能够拥有一个较为轻松、符合人性而又比较温暖的环境。戴尔、碧桂园、华住等企业也已经有相关的实践，但具体的切入口与拜耳中国并不相同。据TO B新势力了解，碧桂园、华住等企业是从全面薪酬的视角切入员工体验应用。HR领域之前更多关注的是现金薪酬，对非现金薪酬的关注较弱。此前，非现金薪酬的最大挑战在于员工的认可度低，HR没有动力推。疫情以后，弹性工时用工，远程办公等话题越来越受到关注，全面薪酬的视角更加重要。在全面薪酬的视角中，员工的弹性福利，员工收到的认可和激励，都决定了员工是否更加认同所在的企业。此外，企业里面推了很多年的导师制——员工入职了以后找师傅，在员工体验下也有了新的方式。传统的方式找师傅，新人不知道去找谁，企业安排给他一个人，新员工也不知道这个人是不是真的能帮到他，或者师傅忙不忙。师傅可能也在想，我为什么要帮？这对我有什么好处？新方法是，员工可以通过平台在线拜师。拜师之前先了解师傅们的情况，比如在哪个领域拥有专长，是否与自身情况所需相符。拜师还可以成为一个双向仪式，员工和师傅之间实现双向选择。拜师成功后，师傅会收到一些需要挑战的任务，完成任务即可以获得对应积分；徒弟转正或者第一次晋升也可以获得对应的积分。联动积分让整个过程变得更加有趣。这些核心刚需背后，是人群代际和技术因素发生了改变。首先，新一代员工不缺乏物质，更加注重体验、关怀和文化。对精神的要求越来越高。其次，互联网、大数据等技术迭代，能够支撑起人力资源领域早已成熟的理论，使之落地。比如，借助员工在平台上留存的行为数据，而非调研和访谈，来更真实地了解员工行为。以往员工喜欢什么，想要得到什么？HR即使去问，可能也得不到答案。但是关注员工的日常行为，如通过弹性的福利平台让员工选择自己喜欢的东西。不同年龄段、偏好的真实数据，会自然呈现。三、发源于C端，国内领先于海外实际上员工体验发源于TO C领域，逐渐“侵入”到TO B领域。因为国内的需求丰富，一些厂商的实践甚至领先于海外。“其实这个行业还真没有人做得好。员工体验是整个服务的叠加。咨询公司做方法论的人比较多。但是对于体验的设计，真正能把理念+设计+平台+实践并不多。”一位行业资深人士告诉TO B新势力。冯博是CDP集团客户成功的负责人，他认为TO B之前更多是从专业视角来做设计产品的。比如从人力资源角度关注到怎么把薪资算准，怎么去做一些人事的管理、数据的处理。人力资源领域对人才的创新需求，引发了对员工体验的重视。员工体验强调的是员工的感受，又因为涉及到公司组织文化。员工体验设计变成了一个继续要自上而下，又需要自下而上的双重过程。“自上而下”的核心在于跟企业文化相关。员工的需求是无穷无尽的，HR不可能把所有的员工需求全部都满足。以哪个为切入点，具体要做哪个项目，做这个项目想达到什么效果，与企业想推广一个什么样的文化，想打造一个什么样的体系，想建立一个什么样的团队与企业文化密切相关。“自下而上”则是指在TO B级产品中糅合产品体验的理念，需要从前期方案设计、客户需求沟通到交付落地全流程的不断迭代。“员工体验也并非一蹴而就，它是一个需要持续改善、持续提升的过程。首先，要找到和企业可以共创的项目，每个企业对员工体验的关注点和抓手不一样。在第一阶段中，共创的项目是找到具体契合点的突破口。”冯博分享了他在负责员工体验中的一些实际做法：“会通过标准问卷和调研的一个框架，根据之前的经验去问企业一些核心的问题。但是这个过程肯定不是死的，它是一个灵活的东西。”员工体验不仅仅是产品细节的创新，也包括背后的机制设定、文化承载等。“我们会出一些理解和经验给客户分享，然后会和客户一起想新的方法。甚至会有一些很细节的事情，比如说像员工体验一般都会有个slogan，到底用什么样的slogan会让员工好记还能植入文化。logo的设计、宣传视频的设计、具体方案的落地、卡片叫什么名字，带不带金额，这些都是要逐步分解。”冯博还强调了三点：第一，把所有利益攸关方整合进来。所谓的利益攸关方会涉及到一些代表性的经理、员工、管理层或者HR。模拟一些场景，让这些员工带着角色去体验，最后会有结果的输出，以确定是否需要持续改进。还有一部分是员工的行为分析，比如说员工在做卡片的时候，哪些卡片发得比较多，什么时间点发的，由谁发给谁的，这些可以根据员工系统中留存的数据，进行提炼和思考，确定方案是否需要改进。国内企业在员工体验上的特点有哪些？刘健认为：“以全球性企业、大型外企为例，其最终决策是国际总部。而国内项目则没有这层因素。互联网企业、中国民营企业的决策权就在中国，能做的、敢做的变革幅度会更大。”“外资企业受制于总部的管理，往往在中国会先着眼于一个个应用场景，从点上去突破和不断革新，而国内的大型民营企业或互联网企业现在更多的会从顶层设计开始，从面上全方位考虑新一代员工体验平台的搭建。”随着更多厂商关注到这一领域，“员工体验”的壁垒主要是两点，其一是在服务能力上，能否与上百个厂家共同形成一套生态体系，一起交付方案。此外，员工所感受到的简单的前端，其背后要有一个整体支撑，比如供应商、物流等等能否打得通。核心不在前端应用，而在于后端服务支持体系。有一定咨询能力、方案设计能力，并且能够与HR和公司沟通，交付产品，结合起来才能实现服务。刘健和同事去年推动了新一代员工体验平台WorkLife的搭建。很多员工离职后还会登录到WorkLife的平台中，因为这个平台打通了员工工作和生活，可以把员工的体检记录，保险，家庭保障，甚至是新的求职机会展示出来。“员工获取体验通过带来良好感受的场景以及服务。服务的背后是企业用户在业务流程上的优化。流程背后是自动行为数据的捕获，比如员工互动的时间。”这是他直观的感受。盖洛普(Gallup) 的一项研究曾提到：近年来持续致力员工体验提升的公司生产力提高了17%，营业收入增加了40%。Gartner的调研亦显示：员工体验是员工与组织的文化、技术和物理环境互动的结合。到2022年，在员工体验方面进行持续投资的企业将实现员工敬业度得分净提升10个百分点。“体验”一词以往常常被用在“客户体验”这个短语里，今天的员工又何尝不是企业的客户呢？新一代员工所关注的，早已不仅仅是薪资，还有尊重和成就感。当所有员工都在成长，公司就在成长。想要了解更多行业知识、软件推荐、功能对比、工具测评，敬请关注36kr企服点评官方网站（www.36dianping.com）。轻点鼠标，发现更多高效率的企服软件！www.36dianping.com[免责声明]原文标题：《微软发布Viva、Qualtrics暴涨、Workday收购Peakon，「员工体验」烧起TO B新年第一把火 | 专家视角》作者：宇婷本文来源于36氪企服点评","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868233950,"gmtCreate":1632649159870,"gmtModify":1632798768244,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it","listText":"Is it","text":"Is it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868233950","repostId":"2170176756","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2170176756","pubTimestamp":1632648965,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170176756?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 17:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170176756","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点","content":"<p><b>此轮利率上行可能有何异同?</b></p>\n<p><b>—2021年9月20日~9月26日</b></p>\n<p><b>报告发布时间：2021年09月26日</b></p>\n<p>摘要</p>\n<p>近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等。</p>\n<p>往前看，我们维持对长端利率短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，实际利率隐含~100bp上行空间。对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，变动速度及市场所身处环境更关键。</p>\n<p>那么，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?</p>\n<p>1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：如疫情见顶基本对应实际利率见底，而财政政策的进展将会成为催化剂</p>\n<p>2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕。因此相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落、短端利率同样上行这三点不同。这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格会阶段转向价值，但中期还是成长</p>\n<p>3、美股估值：不论标普还是纳指都低于年初利率抬升时水平</p>\n<p>4、美国与非美周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快。对比当前，中国增长已明显放缓，部分新兴还在受疫情影响，进而导致美国和非美增长裂口扩大。因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴资金有流出压力。</p>\n<p>本周焦点：与2月份相比，此轮利率上行可能有哪些异同之处?</p>\n<p>近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行了28个基点(图表1)。</p>\n<p>此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合(图表2)(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，符合我们一直强调的利率上行往往发生在预期阶段、而货币政策正式开始操作时通常反而见顶的历史规律(《关于QE减量的八问八答》)，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已经悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等等(图表3~5)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab925c8d4fcd3ab9a129741c48aac75\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f840bb19004d84ee570b9660e466b9d\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>往前看，我们依然维持对于长端利率在短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，以部分“纠正”7~8月份因为疫情升级导致的名义利率大幅回落特别是实际利率定价扭曲的问题。我们测算，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，而实际利率按照与M2和储蓄率的历史关系看可能距离隐含的均衡水平存在~100bp左右的上行空间(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)(图表7~8)。</p>\n<p>对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，2月上一轮利率上行和8月初底部以来的抬升已经不止一次说明了这一问题。相比之下，利率变动的速度以及市场所身处宏观和自身环境更为关键(图表6)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1047b92b61ce2c4d94d022184b63677\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>那么，结合本轮利率上行，如果如我们预期的那样还有进一步空间的话，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?</p>\n<p><b>1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：疫情见顶与财政政策催化剂</b></p>\n<p>从利率短期变化的微观节奏上看，上一轮疫情见顶(1月初)基本对应着实际利率见底，这与当前的环境类似(图表9)。我们注意到近期美国疫情逐步筑顶(图表3)，服务型消费也有回暖迹象(图表10)(《美国服务消费有回暖迹象(9月25日)》)，这也是当前实际利率见底的大背景。</p>\n<p>随后利率在2月初的快速上行，则与当时1.9万亿美元财政刺激出现积极进展的催化剂有直接关系(《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近 2021年2月1日~2月7日》)。往前看，美国9月底到10月中旬也面临一系列的重要的财政政策日程，如5500亿基建计划、包含加税方案的3.5亿财政支出、10月1日新一财年的支出预算(如不能顺利通过则面临政府关门)、10月中旬可能触及的债务上限(可能导致政府违约)(图表12~13)。</p>\n<p>与2月初类似，这一系列财政政策的变化(如新的支出法案通过、或债务上限提升后TGA账户再度回升，图表11)都有可能成为利率变化的催化剂，而中间过程的曲折则可能会对市场造成扰动，这也是我们一再提示对此需要重点关注的原因(《9月海外市场的几个关键变量》)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42013f9424a839f2e3394b1aee3557e5\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕</b></p>\n<p>虽然在短期微观环境、节奏和事件性催化剂上，此轮利率变化与2月初有一些可以比较和借鉴之处，但是大的经济周期和政策环境已然不同，进而可能导致利率上行的形态和节奏存在差异。</p>\n<p>一方面，美国增长已经不像去年底处于修复的初期，向上的二阶导数最快的阶段逐步过去。从目前增长路径来看，二季度同比高点过去后，三季度原本预计是环比高点，但由于疫情升级在7~8月份造成了较大冲击，三季度反而提供了一个环比低基数，进而有可能推动四季度增长出现不错的环比改善。不过，即便如此，增长最快阶段可能已经逐步过去，明年初或逐步回落(图表14)，除非接下来基建和新一轮财政刺激计划大超预期，但目前来看3.5万亿支出计划存在一定变数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e546324010cf46bb1ada447f75a75318\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>另一方面，货币政策环境已然不同。最新的9月FOMC会议已经传递了较为强烈的QE减量即将开始的信号、而且结束时间也可能比预期预想的更要更鹰派(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，这与2月初的环境是截然不同的(图表15，19)。</p>\n<p>因此综合这两点不同，如果我们上面假设的路径是对的，那么相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短(正式减量后逐步筑顶以反映增长预期的逐步回落)、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落(流动性退出预期纠正被严重扭曲的实际利率定价，而通胀预期则很难再出现年初大宗商品在当时增长加速和再通胀预期下的大幅抬升)、短端利率同样上行(体现货币政策退出的效果)这三点不同(图表16~18，20，22)。</p>\n<p>这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格在利率阶段性上行期间可能会再转向银行等价值股，但由于增长周期也可能逐步回落，我们预计中期可能还是以与大的宏观增长环境相关性较低的成长为主(图表35)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0d5eb532977fb96d503667c00c12b6c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47994d71735efe52ffd31ff6bd197bab\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d155963d8454026b91ad7ca914ea436\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18cb3e41001723f1c98d8172671c206\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"711\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c7d3b259e5df5407c186e97bba67e5\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>3、美股估值：低于年初利率抬升时水平</b></p>\n<p>得益于美股盈利在一二季度持续且大幅的修复，当前美股估值不论是标普500(当前22倍 vs. 年初25~26倍)、还是偏成长的纳斯达克(当前30倍 vs. 年初32倍)，反而都要低于年初利率上行时的水平(图表21)。</p>\n<p>当前流动性和增长环境能够支撑的估值也高于也要高于当时(图表72)。</p>\n<p><b>4、美国与非美的增长周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快</b></p>\n<p>除了上述美国自身增长和政策环境外，美国和非美地区的相对对比也已经出现很大变化。去年底和今年初上一轮利率上行期间，中国和大部分新兴市场也处于增长改善和预期加速向上的阶段，这解释了当时资金大量流入包括中国在内的新兴市场(图表26~27)、美元走弱、以及大宗商品的快速走高。</p>\n<p>但是对比当前，中国增长已经明显放缓，而部分新兴市场还在受疫情升级和缺乏疫苗困扰导致增长一度大幅回落，如越南(图表28~30)。美国和非美国家增长裂口的扩大、叠加美联储政策退出的临近和美债利率上行，可能会在经常账户原本因为疫情提供受损的背景下，资本项下也面临压力。</p>\n<p>因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴市场资金有流出压力的情形。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b289733eadc7cd82eefb3624048197ed\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58fe36084f4f8b333d587fcc004a4bb3\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>市场动态：FOMC传递鹰派信号，利率美元走强，实际利率抬升，价值跑赢成长</p>\n<p>资产表现：大宗&gt;股&gt;债;利率快速抬升，价值领涨</p>\n<p>过去一周，周一美欧股市一度受港股房地产板块大幅波动波及而回调。周三结束的9月FOMC议息会议从多方面看都更为鹰派，传递了较为强烈的减量信号且结束时间可能更早，但不同资产的反映却存在一定分歧。长端国债在当天并未出现明显抬升，但周四明显上行至1.45%，可能反应了鹰派信号的滞后效果。相比之下，美股市场的表现更为积极，后三天持续反弹修复。不过我们依然建议需要关注利率快速抬升、以及后续一系列财政政策不确定性的可能扰动。利率的上行导致价值股再度领先、FAAMNG为代表的成长股下跌，这与历次规律和我们强调的情形一致。</p>\n<p>整体来看，美元计价下，大宗&gt;股&gt;债;原油、印度、铜领涨，比特币、VIX多头、美国中概、港股领跌。分行业来看，能源、银行、消费者服务等领涨，耐用消费品、房地产、公用事业等领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率快速抬升至1.45%，上升约9bp，其中实际利率抬升10bp，通胀预期下降1bp;美国投资级信用利差走阔，高收益债信用利差收窄。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83e3d37e64e5da70743d3771c18d3a6\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3434b0e35a935180ca55d3c9140b7d\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>情绪仓位：美股转为多头，美元净多头增加</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例较上周继续抬升;欧美股市超买程度均抬升，日本、新兴回落;黄金、布油抬升;美股投机性仓位由空转多</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd76be0c1a5bd3741f8748b3369cb10\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb501a93af2a3df319bb559be1ecae29\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>资金流向：股市38周流入后首度流出</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，债市流入大幅放缓，股市在连续38周流入后首度转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，欧美股市转为流出，日本及新兴市场加速流入。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fc6232fa61ab31813c417b88d298ae\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>基本面与政策：欧美9月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> PMI均出现回落且不及预期</b></p>\n<p>美国方面，9月MarkitPMI相对低迷。9月Markit制造业PMI初值降至60.5，创2021年4月以来新低，一定程度上也继续体现了疫情的影响。分项来看，产出创2020年10月以来新低，新订单降至2021年3月以来新低，在手订单抬升至2007年以来最高。生产线仍然受到原材料短缺、运输挑战以及劳动力短缺的困扰。与此同时，出厂价格抬升至历史新高，供应时间也创有记录以来最长。9月Markit服务业PMI初值同样回落至54.4且不及预期。8月新屋开工增幅超预期，建筑许可同样抬升，新屋销售也连续第二个月上涨。</p>\n<p>欧洲方面，9月Markit制造业及服务业PMI均出现回落且不及预期，最大经济体德国的PMI数据同样低于预期，显示出持续的供应链中断以及最近天然气价格的飙升对欧洲经济复苏造成一定困扰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1a0196dcbec9084d24308e1215b636\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4b1b95f81ecf8fb9f3661a14f7b6033\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>市场估值：美股估值略低于增长和利率环境支撑水平</b></p>\n<p>当前标普500指数24.9倍静态P/E低于增长(9月Markit制造业PMI=60.5)和流动性(10年美债利率1.45%)能够支撑的合理水平(~25.3倍)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fa79a0c24e4743004813027fb125e1f\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 17:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html><strong>Kevin策略研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170176756","content_text":"此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等。\n往前看，我们维持对长端利率短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，实际利率隐含~100bp上行空间。对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，变动速度及市场所身处环境更关键。\n那么，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?\n1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：如疫情见顶基本对应实际利率见底，而财政政策的进展将会成为催化剂\n2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕。因此相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落、短端利率同样上行这三点不同。这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格会阶段转向价值，但中期还是成长\n3、美股估值：不论标普还是纳指都低于年初利率抬升时水平\n4、美国与非美周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快。对比当前，中国增长已明显放缓，部分新兴还在受疫情影响，进而导致美国和非美增长裂口扩大。因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴资金有流出压力。\n本周焦点：与2月份相比，此轮利率上行可能有哪些异同之处?\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行了28个基点(图表1)。\n此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合(图表2)(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，符合我们一直强调的利率上行往往发生在预期阶段、而货币政策正式开始操作时通常反而见顶的历史规律(《关于QE减量的八问八答》)，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已经悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等等(图表3~5)。\n\n往前看，我们依然维持对于长端利率在短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，以部分“纠正”7~8月份因为疫情升级导致的名义利率大幅回落特别是实际利率定价扭曲的问题。我们测算，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，而实际利率按照与M2和储蓄率的历史关系看可能距离隐含的均衡水平存在~100bp左右的上行空间(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)(图表7~8)。\n对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，2月上一轮利率上行和8月初底部以来的抬升已经不止一次说明了这一问题。相比之下，利率变动的速度以及市场所身处宏观和自身环境更为关键(图表6)。\n\n那么，结合本轮利率上行，如果如我们预期的那样还有进一步空间的话，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?\n1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：疫情见顶与财政政策催化剂\n从利率短期变化的微观节奏上看，上一轮疫情见顶(1月初)基本对应着实际利率见底，这与当前的环境类似(图表9)。我们注意到近期美国疫情逐步筑顶(图表3)，服务型消费也有回暖迹象(图表10)(《美国服务消费有回暖迹象(9月25日)》)，这也是当前实际利率见底的大背景。\n随后利率在2月初的快速上行，则与当时1.9万亿美元财政刺激出现积极进展的催化剂有直接关系(《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近 2021年2月1日~2月7日》)。往前看，美国9月底到10月中旬也面临一系列的重要的财政政策日程，如5500亿基建计划、包含加税方案的3.5亿财政支出、10月1日新一财年的支出预算(如不能顺利通过则面临政府关门)、10月中旬可能触及的债务上限(可能导致政府违约)(图表12~13)。\n与2月初类似，这一系列财政政策的变化(如新的支出法案通过、或债务上限提升后TGA账户再度回升，图表11)都有可能成为利率变化的催化剂，而中间过程的曲折则可能会对市场造成扰动，这也是我们一再提示对此需要重点关注的原因(《9月海外市场的几个关键变量》)。\n\n2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕\n虽然在短期微观环境、节奏和事件性催化剂上，此轮利率变化与2月初有一些可以比较和借鉴之处，但是大的经济周期和政策环境已然不同，进而可能导致利率上行的形态和节奏存在差异。\n一方面，美国增长已经不像去年底处于修复的初期，向上的二阶导数最快的阶段逐步过去。从目前增长路径来看，二季度同比高点过去后，三季度原本预计是环比高点，但由于疫情升级在7~8月份造成了较大冲击，三季度反而提供了一个环比低基数，进而有可能推动四季度增长出现不错的环比改善。不过，即便如此，增长最快阶段可能已经逐步过去，明年初或逐步回落(图表14)，除非接下来基建和新一轮财政刺激计划大超预期，但目前来看3.5万亿支出计划存在一定变数。\n\n另一方面，货币政策环境已然不同。最新的9月FOMC会议已经传递了较为强烈的QE减量即将开始的信号、而且结束时间也可能比预期预想的更要更鹰派(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，这与2月初的环境是截然不同的(图表15，19)。\n因此综合这两点不同，如果我们上面假设的路径是对的，那么相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短(正式减量后逐步筑顶以反映增长预期的逐步回落)、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落(流动性退出预期纠正被严重扭曲的实际利率定价，而通胀预期则很难再出现年初大宗商品在当时增长加速和再通胀预期下的大幅抬升)、短端利率同样上行(体现货币政策退出的效果)这三点不同(图表16~18，20，22)。\n这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格在利率阶段性上行期间可能会再转向银行等价值股，但由于增长周期也可能逐步回落，我们预计中期可能还是以与大的宏观增长环境相关性较低的成长为主(图表35)。\n\n3、美股估值：低于年初利率抬升时水平\n得益于美股盈利在一二季度持续且大幅的修复，当前美股估值不论是标普500(当前22倍 vs. 年初25~26倍)、还是偏成长的纳斯达克(当前30倍 vs. 年初32倍)，反而都要低于年初利率上行时的水平(图表21)。\n当前流动性和增长环境能够支撑的估值也高于也要高于当时(图表72)。\n4、美国与非美的增长周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快\n除了上述美国自身增长和政策环境外，美国和非美地区的相对对比也已经出现很大变化。去年底和今年初上一轮利率上行期间，中国和大部分新兴市场也处于增长改善和预期加速向上的阶段，这解释了当时资金大量流入包括中国在内的新兴市场(图表26~27)、美元走弱、以及大宗商品的快速走高。\n但是对比当前，中国增长已经明显放缓，而部分新兴市场还在受疫情升级和缺乏疫苗困扰导致增长一度大幅回落，如越南(图表28~30)。美国和非美国家增长裂口的扩大、叠加美联储政策退出的临近和美债利率上行，可能会在经常账户原本因为疫情提供受损的背景下，资本项下也面临压力。\n因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴市场资金有流出压力的情形。\n\n市场动态：FOMC传递鹰派信号，利率美元走强，实际利率抬升，价值跑赢成长\n资产表现：大宗>股>债;利率快速抬升，价值领涨\n过去一周，周一美欧股市一度受港股房地产板块大幅波动波及而回调。周三结束的9月FOMC议息会议从多方面看都更为鹰派，传递了较为强烈的减量信号且结束时间可能更早，但不同资产的反映却存在一定分歧。长端国债在当天并未出现明显抬升，但周四明显上行至1.45%，可能反应了鹰派信号的滞后效果。相比之下，美股市场的表现更为积极，后三天持续反弹修复。不过我们依然建议需要关注利率快速抬升、以及后续一系列财政政策不确定性的可能扰动。利率的上行导致价值股再度领先、FAAMNG为代表的成长股下跌，这与历次规律和我们强调的情形一致。\n整体来看，美元计价下，大宗>股>债;原油、印度、铜领涨，比特币、VIX多头、美国中概、港股领跌。分行业来看，能源、银行、消费者服务等领涨，耐用消费品、房地产、公用事业等领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率快速抬升至1.45%，上升约9bp，其中实际利率抬升10bp，通胀预期下降1bp;美国投资级信用利差走阔，高收益债信用利差收窄。\n\n情绪仓位：美股转为多头，美元净多头增加\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例较上周继续抬升;欧美股市超买程度均抬升，日本、新兴回落;黄金、布油抬升;美股投机性仓位由空转多\n\n资金流向：股市38周流入后首度流出\n过去一周，债市流入大幅放缓，股市在连续38周流入后首度转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，欧美股市转为流出，日本及新兴市场加速流入。\n\n基本面与政策：欧美9月Markit PMI均出现回落且不及预期\n美国方面，9月MarkitPMI相对低迷。9月Markit制造业PMI初值降至60.5，创2021年4月以来新低，一定程度上也继续体现了疫情的影响。分项来看，产出创2020年10月以来新低，新订单降至2021年3月以来新低，在手订单抬升至2007年以来最高。生产线仍然受到原材料短缺、运输挑战以及劳动力短缺的困扰。与此同时，出厂价格抬升至历史新高，供应时间也创有记录以来最长。9月Markit服务业PMI初值同样回落至54.4且不及预期。8月新屋开工增幅超预期，建筑许可同样抬升，新屋销售也连续第二个月上涨。\n欧洲方面，9月Markit制造业及服务业PMI均出现回落且不及预期，最大经济体德国的PMI数据同样低于预期，显示出持续的供应链中断以及最近天然气价格的飙升对欧洲经济复苏造成一定困扰。\n\n市场估值：美股估值略低于增长和利率环境支撑水平\n当前标普500指数24.9倍静态P/E低于增长(9月Markit制造业PMI=60.5)和流动性(10年美债利率1.45%)能够支撑的合理水平(~25.3倍)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823947398,"gmtCreate":1633575994946,"gmtModify":1633575995070,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823947398","repostId":"2173430469","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}