法清的个人主页 - 老虎社区

法清

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582关注

13粉丝

5主题

0勋章

2023-01-12

😁

2023-01-14

😁

2023-01-13

[微笑]

2023-01-04

😁😁

2022-12-30

！

2021-05-17

新手还能买卖骨票吗，分分钟被割韭菜

记录思考：市场操纵的本质是什么？

2021-05-12

破发以后没人管了

公益？商业？标签到底是什么？水滴上市首日破发股价大跌近20％！

2023-01-16

[微笑]

2023-01-15

😁

2023-01-08

[微笑]

2023-01-06

[微笑]

2023-01-05

[开心]

2023-01-02

😁

2022-12-27

😁

2022-12-26

😁

2022-12-06

😁

2021-07-08

京东物流咋回事

2021-07-06

什么原因啊，坑死人呢

京东物流(02618.HK)盘中跳水现跌超5%

2021-06-30

继续努力。等的好辛苦

2021-06-25

投资眼光独到，但是瓶装水也污染了环境。或许就是她的失去吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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11:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"京东物流(02618.HK)盘中跳水 现跌超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149635874","media":"东方财富研究中心","summary":"【行情】京东物流(02618.HK)盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报38.5港元。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=116.02618&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a></span>(02618.HK)盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报38.5港元。</p><p>（文章来源：<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">东方财富</a></span><span></span>研究中心）</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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20:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"记录思考：市场操纵的本质是什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122542619","media":"扑克投资家","summary":"过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。\n涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博","content":"<p>过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。</p>\n<p>涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博时这样的老牌资管，整个证券行业在上周末一片鸡飞狗跳，忐忑彷徨者有之，幸灾乐祸和凑近吃瓜的更多。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603709\">中源家居</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300503\">昊志机电</a>等股票的投资者莫名躺枪，周一早上ST板块甚至上演了百股跌停，小盘绩差股在大盘翻红之下一片惨绿，遍地皆是脸有便秘之色的小盘股投资者。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e173f836d004c2b37be5eaa0a9f3ac01\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>一片惨绿的小盘绩差股</i></p>\n<p>姑且不论叶飞基于何种鱼死网破的恐惧披露这样的“惊天大瓜”，<b>对任何一个小有阅历的职业作手来说，“市值管理”都像是皇帝的新装，大家知根知底但纷纷装傻</b>：一者市值管理在古今中外都是一个监管难题，上市公司有很强的“调整”股价的意愿，施加监管高压则无非从明面转入地下；二者市值管理具有很强的隐蔽性，对基金公司来说，买入卖出股票并不需要公布缘由，甚至总能找到看似合情合理的看好或者不看好的理由。</p>\n<p><b>新与旧的市场操纵</b></p>\n<p>自1792年现代证券在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCBK\">哈德逊</a>湾旁华尔街的梧桐树下诞生，操纵就如影随形，如附骨之疽。在整个波澜壮阔的19世纪和20世纪初，丹尼尔·德鲁、范德比尔特、J·P·摩根、卡耐基等商界巨贾都以操纵市场为常态，<b>大亨们视市场为战场，散户们也乐于跟着他们“上阵厮杀”</b>，其间更有詹姆斯·菲斯克、杰伊·古尔德、杰西·利弗莫尔、伯纳德·巴鲁克这样的股票老妖兴风作浪、纵横捭阖。</p>\n<p>金融恶魔杰伊·古尔德甚至以一己之力在1869年引爆了一场金融危机，市场在此后低迷了整整20年（主要因为南北战争后产能过剩），也许这是最早的“黑色星期五”。</p>\n<p>但就是这样一位“法外狂徒”，却可以安享晚年，善始善终，没有任何一位检察官可以把他送入监狱。</p>\n<p>市场操纵的草莽时代，大亨们和当时西进运动中粗鲁的牛仔别无二致——为达目的无所不用其极，没有法律，也没有公众可以约束他们。</p>\n<p>在2005年之前，<b>中国的金融市场也经历了类似的时期：以327国债事件为先声，以吕梁奔逃为高潮，以德隆垮台唐万新入狱为曲终。</b></p>\n<p>与现在“精致利己主义”式的操纵者不同，草莽们一手执刀、一手高举价值大旗。不管是操纵中科创业时，吕梁言必声称的战略投资，还是唐万新屡屡宣讲的“中国的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦”，其本质上都是一种先上车后补票的行为——通过概念和图形、手法筹集资金，然后拿着这笔钱勾勒未来蓝图。</p>\n<p>模式听起来异常眼熟，这不是现在盛行美股的SPAC（特殊目的并购公司）模式么？先开一张空头支票，然后大家各凭地位名气和画饼功力筹集资金，最后拿着钱并购资产坐实“价值”。就连李泽楷也搞起了SPAC 生意，和美国传奇投资人彼得·蒂尔成立SPAC公司Bridgetown Holdings以并购印尼电商巨头PT Tokopedia。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f720373ff48270312d1ac943312fd6\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>SPAC年度募资总额对比（截止2021年1月）</i></p>\n<p>类似的情形，在80年代美股杠杆收购大潮中也出现过。</p>\n<p>由此可见，市场操纵和市场操作的界限远非想象的分明，每一波牛市的高潮，各路牛鬼蛇神都迫不及待的想要操纵市场，<b>毕竟站着挣钱费心费力，而摸别人口袋，只要没被抓，那就是一本万利</b>。</p>\n<p><b>“市场操纵”的玩法</b></p>\n<p>不管背后做了多少眼花缭乱的包装，<b>市场操纵的目的都只有一个，那就是扩大零和博弈中双方的盈亏</b>，不管“市值管理”的目的是否基于此，都会造成这种结果。所以任何市场操纵行为，不管目标和初衷如何，都应该被广大个人投资者唾弃，因为当有人可以悄无声息把手伸进你的口袋时，你不能指望他不掏一把。</p>\n<p>十年前我入行时，市面上充斥着的，是对所谓庄家的研究，下到小散上到资管机构，所谓庄家操纵市场，无非只有两个方面：让别人在不该抛出的地方抛出，在不该买入的地方买入；让别人在该抛出的地方不抛，在该买入的地方没有买入。</p>\n<p>由此衍生出两类策略：洗盘和出货。</p>\n<p><b>任何丰富的市场操纵，必以K线为骨，以基本面信息为皮肉，以价值为五脏；先以皮相、骨相引人入场，再以价值拴住。</b>名为操纵，实乃把故事通过天马行空的思路重构，然后倾倒到市场。拙劣者只会简单粗暴的炒作、洗盘、拉高、出货，高明者把概念层层包装然后让市场去挖掘深意。</p>\n<p>徐翔的泽熙投资是其中的翘楚。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1803b9a87388eb662ac39091d8d902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>2015年一地鸡毛的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600132\">重庆啤酒</a></i></p>\n<p>任何操纵市场的人，都不可能在行情癫狂期控制市场，大众媒体描述中的市场如提线木偶，散户如懵懂婴儿的情形，少之又少。</p>\n<p>所以操纵从来是极危险的行为，十年来，我目睹过不少成功的市场操纵，但失败的更多，众人调侃的“中国的第一批操盘手都在里面”，居多不是因为操纵成功，更多是因为操纵失败漏了底，毕竟这行都讲究“润物细无声”。</p>\n<p>多年前有人和我说过：<b>操纵市场就像“控制”婴儿，最重要的一部分往往不是操纵，而是挑选性格“温顺可爱者”</b>：如盘子偏小但不能太小，如大股东持股不应太高，或者与大股东合作，如最好身处热点行业或门类中的冷门股，如质地不能太差，有一定的安全边际，如企业最好身处中西部，有信息水位差。</p>\n<p>但如果全拿着别人的资金翻云覆雨，赚钱我来，亏损你担，则不止有操纵，更有违信义与责任。</p>\n<p><b>市场操纵的本质是什么</b></p>\n<p>如果把金融市场当做社会的“镜像”，任何一个正常的社会，投机取巧者都不会是主流，更多的是脚踏实地经营生活的人。</p>\n<p>期货、股票市场也一样，<b>一颗老鼠屎不可能污染一锅汤，但却可能导致别人一口汤不喝</b>。所以类似“市值管理”这样的皇帝新装可以横行多年，业内人士秉持中庸之道故作不知，外面的人自然把你们当做一丘之貉，然后无差别踩死。</p>\n<p>但划清界限又是非常难的事情——买入或者唱多一只股票，其目的无非是获取收益，这和操纵市场的目的是一样的，只是手段不同。定义的模糊性，导致金融监管很容易时松时紧，尤其是监管跟不上“金融创新”的时候，古今中外概莫能外。</p>\n<p>离我们最近的大案，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的贵金属市场操纵案，期间持续了超过10年，但在我入行不久，就知道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对有色金属和贵金属的现货仓储有很高的掌控力，摩根大通将其“变现”是自然而然的事情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5817e0d4b0ffb5887ca9a7530e7e4420\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>摩根大通长期持有comex一半白银储备</i></p>\n<p><b>任何操纵，本质上通过各种手段“变现”自己的资源和影响力，利用信息差、资金差、舆论差欺负弱势群体</b>，或者说任何营造不平等竞争环境的行为，都可以归类到操纵。监管的目的不是保护散户，也不是维持机构的积极性，而是保证整个市场的定价是准确、公平的，是有效的。对于监管者来说，市场不是“需要监护的婴儿”，市场就是市场，需要的不是“父亲式”的呵护，因为这会适得其反，让自己投鼠忌器，让施害者肆无忌惮。市场最需要的，从来都是明正严肃的法律和不折不扣的执行，让“买卖”顺利进行</p>\n<p>但每逢牛市，无风险利率被砸到地心，泛滥的流动性不可避免的会扭曲市场，这也是近些年全球的金融监管明明在快速收紧，但泡沫和操纵行为屡禁不止的原因，兼之牛市可以轻松的将操纵行为隐藏于大盘普涨之下，如叶飞提及的市场操纵，普遍发生在2015年“水牛”高潮前后。</p>\n<p><b>最后</b></p>\n<p>对比我入行时，操纵行为已经大大减少，随着价值投资理念的普及，各种绩差仙股对散户的吸引力越来越小，近些年我乐见于很多“前辈盘手”打板不成反被埋、坐庄不成反成“价值投资派”，此前令人眼花缭乱的庄家手法也渐成绝响，成为民间金融传说的重要组成部分。</p>\n<p>不管基于何种目的，叶飞揭开“市值管理”的酱缸，让一众蝇营狗苟者暴露在阳光之下，恰如一句电影台词：<b>如果罪恶没有得到严惩，那就是在鼓励犯罪。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n记录思考：市场操纵的本质是什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/62\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb4f7cd07114ea0816f9d726f7b283f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">扑克投资家 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-17 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。</p>\n<p>涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博时这样的老牌资管，整个证券行业在上周末一片鸡飞狗跳，忐忑彷徨者有之，幸灾乐祸和凑近吃瓜的更多。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603709\">中源家居</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300503\">昊志机电</a>等股票的投资者莫名躺枪，周一早上ST板块甚至上演了百股跌停，小盘绩差股在大盘翻红之下一片惨绿，遍地皆是脸有便秘之色的小盘股投资者。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e173f836d004c2b37be5eaa0a9f3ac01\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>一片惨绿的小盘绩差股</i></p>\n<p>姑且不论叶飞基于何种鱼死网破的恐惧披露这样的“惊天大瓜”，<b>对任何一个小有阅历的职业作手来说，“市值管理”都像是皇帝的新装，大家知根知底但纷纷装傻</b>：一者市值管理在古今中外都是一个监管难题，上市公司有很强的“调整”股价的意愿，施加监管高压则无非从明面转入地下；二者市值管理具有很强的隐蔽性，对基金公司来说，买入卖出股票并不需要公布缘由，甚至总能找到看似合情合理的看好或者不看好的理由。</p>\n<p><b>新与旧的市场操纵</b></p>\n<p>自1792年现代证券在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCBK\">哈德逊</a>湾旁华尔街的梧桐树下诞生，操纵就如影随形，如附骨之疽。在整个波澜壮阔的19世纪和20世纪初，丹尼尔·德鲁、范德比尔特、J·P·摩根、卡耐基等商界巨贾都以操纵市场为常态，<b>大亨们视市场为战场，散户们也乐于跟着他们“上阵厮杀”</b>，其间更有詹姆斯·菲斯克、杰伊·古尔德、杰西·利弗莫尔、伯纳德·巴鲁克这样的股票老妖兴风作浪、纵横捭阖。</p>\n<p>金融恶魔杰伊·古尔德甚至以一己之力在1869年引爆了一场金融危机，市场在此后低迷了整整20年（主要因为南北战争后产能过剩），也许这是最早的“黑色星期五”。</p>\n<p>但就是这样一位“法外狂徒”，却可以安享晚年，善始善终，没有任何一位检察官可以把他送入监狱。</p>\n<p>市场操纵的草莽时代，大亨们和当时西进运动中粗鲁的牛仔别无二致——为达目的无所不用其极，没有法律，也没有公众可以约束他们。</p>\n<p>在2005年之前，<b>中国的金融市场也经历了类似的时期：以327国债事件为先声，以吕梁奔逃为高潮，以德隆垮台唐万新入狱为曲终。</b></p>\n<p>与现在“精致利己主义”式的操纵者不同，草莽们一手执刀、一手高举价值大旗。不管是操纵中科创业时，吕梁言必声称的战略投资，还是唐万新屡屡宣讲的“中国的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦”，其本质上都是一种先上车后补票的行为——通过概念和图形、手法筹集资金，然后拿着这笔钱勾勒未来蓝图。</p>\n<p>模式听起来异常眼熟，这不是现在盛行美股的SPAC（特殊目的并购公司）模式么？先开一张空头支票，然后大家各凭地位名气和画饼功力筹集资金，最后拿着钱并购资产坐实“价值”。就连李泽楷也搞起了SPAC 生意，和美国传奇投资人彼得·蒂尔成立SPAC公司Bridgetown Holdings以并购印尼电商巨头PT Tokopedia。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f720373ff48270312d1ac943312fd6\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>SPAC年度募资总额对比（截止2021年1月）</i></p>\n<p>类似的情形，在80年代美股杠杆收购大潮中也出现过。</p>\n<p>由此可见，市场操纵和市场操作的界限远非想象的分明，每一波牛市的高潮，各路牛鬼蛇神都迫不及待的想要操纵市场，<b>毕竟站着挣钱费心费力，而摸别人口袋，只要没被抓，那就是一本万利</b>。</p>\n<p><b>“市场操纵”的玩法</b></p>\n<p>不管背后做了多少眼花缭乱的包装，<b>市场操纵的目的都只有一个，那就是扩大零和博弈中双方的盈亏</b>，不管“市值管理”的目的是否基于此，都会造成这种结果。所以任何市场操纵行为，不管目标和初衷如何，都应该被广大个人投资者唾弃，因为当有人可以悄无声息把手伸进你的口袋时，你不能指望他不掏一把。</p>\n<p>十年前我入行时，市面上充斥着的，是对所谓庄家的研究，下到小散上到资管机构，所谓庄家操纵市场，无非只有两个方面：让别人在不该抛出的地方抛出，在不该买入的地方买入；让别人在该抛出的地方不抛，在该买入的地方没有买入。</p>\n<p>由此衍生出两类策略：洗盘和出货。</p>\n<p><b>任何丰富的市场操纵，必以K线为骨，以基本面信息为皮肉，以价值为五脏；先以皮相、骨相引人入场，再以价值拴住。</b>名为操纵，实乃把故事通过天马行空的思路重构，然后倾倒到市场。拙劣者只会简单粗暴的炒作、洗盘、拉高、出货，高明者把概念层层包装然后让市场去挖掘深意。</p>\n<p>徐翔的泽熙投资是其中的翘楚。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1803b9a87388eb662ac39091d8d902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>2015年一地鸡毛的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600132\">重庆啤酒</a></i></p>\n<p>任何操纵市场的人，都不可能在行情癫狂期控制市场，大众媒体描述中的市场如提线木偶，散户如懵懂婴儿的情形，少之又少。</p>\n<p>所以操纵从来是极危险的行为，十年来，我目睹过不少成功的市场操纵，但失败的更多，众人调侃的“中国的第一批操盘手都在里面”，居多不是因为操纵成功，更多是因为操纵失败漏了底，毕竟这行都讲究“润物细无声”。</p>\n<p>多年前有人和我说过：<b>操纵市场就像“控制”婴儿，最重要的一部分往往不是操纵，而是挑选性格“温顺可爱者”</b>：如盘子偏小但不能太小，如大股东持股不应太高，或者与大股东合作，如最好身处热点行业或门类中的冷门股，如质地不能太差，有一定的安全边际，如企业最好身处中西部，有信息水位差。</p>\n<p>但如果全拿着别人的资金翻云覆雨，赚钱我来，亏损你担，则不止有操纵，更有违信义与责任。</p>\n<p><b>市场操纵的本质是什么</b></p>\n<p>如果把金融市场当做社会的“镜像”，任何一个正常的社会，投机取巧者都不会是主流，更多的是脚踏实地经营生活的人。</p>\n<p>期货、股票市场也一样，<b>一颗老鼠屎不可能污染一锅汤，但却可能导致别人一口汤不喝</b>。所以类似“市值管理”这样的皇帝新装可以横行多年，业内人士秉持中庸之道故作不知，外面的人自然把你们当做一丘之貉，然后无差别踩死。</p>\n<p>但划清界限又是非常难的事情——买入或者唱多一只股票，其目的无非是获取收益，这和操纵市场的目的是一样的，只是手段不同。定义的模糊性，导致金融监管很容易时松时紧，尤其是监管跟不上“金融创新”的时候，古今中外概莫能外。</p>\n<p>离我们最近的大案，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的贵金属市场操纵案，期间持续了超过10年，但在我入行不久，就知道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对有色金属和贵金属的现货仓储有很高的掌控力，摩根大通将其“变现”是自然而然的事情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5817e0d4b0ffb5887ca9a7530e7e4420\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>摩根大通长期持有comex一半白银储备</i></p>\n<p><b>任何操纵，本质上通过各种手段“变现”自己的资源和影响力，利用信息差、资金差、舆论差欺负弱势群体</b>，或者说任何营造不平等竞争环境的行为，都可以归类到操纵。监管的目的不是保护散户，也不是维持机构的积极性，而是保证整个市场的定价是准确、公平的，是有效的。对于监管者来说，市场不是“需要监护的婴儿”，市场就是市场，需要的不是“父亲式”的呵护，因为这会适得其反，让自己投鼠忌器，让施害者肆无忌惮。市场最需要的，从来都是明正严肃的法律和不折不扣的执行，让“买卖”顺利进行</p>\n<p>但每逢牛市，无风险利率被砸到地心，泛滥的流动性不可避免的会扭曲市场，这也是近些年全球的金融监管明明在快速收紧，但泡沫和操纵行为屡禁不止的原因，兼之牛市可以轻松的将操纵行为隐藏于大盘普涨之下，如叶飞提及的市场操纵，普遍发生在2015年“水牛”高潮前后。</p>\n<p><b>最后</b></p>\n<p>对比我入行时，操纵行为已经大大减少，随着价值投资理念的普及，各种绩差仙股对散户的吸引力越来越小，近些年我乐见于很多“前辈盘手”打板不成反被埋、坐庄不成反成“价值投资派”，此前令人眼花缭乱的庄家手法也渐成绝响，成为民间金融传说的重要组成部分。</p>\n<p>不管基于何种目的，叶飞揭开“市值管理”的酱缸，让一众蝇营狗苟者暴露在阳光之下，恰如一句电影台词：<b>如果罪恶没有得到严惩，那就是在鼓励犯罪。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80572af96e8ce44b09448601effd121c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122542619","content_text":"过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。\n涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博时这样的老牌资管，整个证券行业在上周末一片鸡飞狗跳，忐忑彷徨者有之，幸灾乐祸和凑近吃瓜的更多。\n中源家居、昊志机电等股票的投资者莫名躺枪，周一早上ST板块甚至上演了百股跌停，小盘绩差股在大盘翻红之下一片惨绿，遍地皆是脸有便秘之色的小盘股投资者。\n\n一片惨绿的小盘绩差股\n姑且不论叶飞基于何种鱼死网破的恐惧披露这样的“惊天大瓜”，对任何一个小有阅历的职业作手来说，“市值管理”都像是皇帝的新装，大家知根知底但纷纷装傻：一者市值管理在古今中外都是一个监管难题，上市公司有很强的“调整”股价的意愿，施加监管高压则无非从明面转入地下；二者市值管理具有很强的隐蔽性，对基金公司来说，买入卖出股票并不需要公布缘由，甚至总能找到看似合情合理的看好或者不看好的理由。\n新与旧的市场操纵\n自1792年现代证券在哈德逊湾旁华尔街的梧桐树下诞生，操纵就如影随形，如附骨之疽。在整个波澜壮阔的19世纪和20世纪初，丹尼尔·德鲁、范德比尔特、J·P·摩根、卡耐基等商界巨贾都以操纵市场为常态，大亨们视市场为战场，散户们也乐于跟着他们“上阵厮杀”，其间更有詹姆斯·菲斯克、杰伊·古尔德、杰西·利弗莫尔、伯纳德·巴鲁克这样的股票老妖兴风作浪、纵横捭阖。\n金融恶魔杰伊·古尔德甚至以一己之力在1869年引爆了一场金融危机，市场在此后低迷了整整20年（主要因为南北战争后产能过剩），也许这是最早的“黑色星期五”。\n但就是这样一位“法外狂徒”，却可以安享晚年，善始善终，没有任何一位检察官可以把他送入监狱。\n市场操纵的草莽时代，大亨们和当时西进运动中粗鲁的牛仔别无二致——为达目的无所不用其极，没有法律，也没有公众可以约束他们。\n在2005年之前，中国的金融市场也经历了类似的时期：以327国债事件为先声，以吕梁奔逃为高潮，以德隆垮台唐万新入狱为曲终。\n与现在“精致利己主义”式的操纵者不同，草莽们一手执刀、一手高举价值大旗。不管是操纵中科创业时，吕梁言必声称的战略投资，还是唐万新屡屡宣讲的“中国的伯克希尔·哈撒韦”，其本质上都是一种先上车后补票的行为——通过概念和图形、手法筹集资金，然后拿着这笔钱勾勒未来蓝图。\n模式听起来异常眼熟，这不是现在盛行美股的SPAC（特殊目的并购公司）模式么？先开一张空头支票，然后大家各凭地位名气和画饼功力筹集资金，最后拿着钱并购资产坐实“价值”。就连李泽楷也搞起了SPAC 生意，和美国传奇投资人彼得·蒂尔成立SPAC公司Bridgetown Holdings以并购印尼电商巨头PT Tokopedia。\n\nSPAC年度募资总额对比（截止2021年1月）\n类似的情形，在80年代美股杠杆收购大潮中也出现过。\n由此可见，市场操纵和市场操作的界限远非想象的分明，每一波牛市的高潮，各路牛鬼蛇神都迫不及待的想要操纵市场，毕竟站着挣钱费心费力，而摸别人口袋，只要没被抓，那就是一本万利。\n“市场操纵”的玩法\n不管背后做了多少眼花缭乱的包装，市场操纵的目的都只有一个，那就是扩大零和博弈中双方的盈亏，不管“市值管理”的目的是否基于此，都会造成这种结果。所以任何市场操纵行为，不管目标和初衷如何，都应该被广大个人投资者唾弃，因为当有人可以悄无声息把手伸进你的口袋时，你不能指望他不掏一把。\n十年前我入行时，市面上充斥着的，是对所谓庄家的研究，下到小散上到资管机构，所谓庄家操纵市场，无非只有两个方面：让别人在不该抛出的地方抛出，在不该买入的地方买入；让别人在该抛出的地方不抛，在该买入的地方没有买入。\n由此衍生出两类策略：洗盘和出货。\n任何丰富的市场操纵，必以K线为骨，以基本面信息为皮肉，以价值为五脏；先以皮相、骨相引人入场，再以价值拴住。名为操纵，实乃把故事通过天马行空的思路重构，然后倾倒到市场。拙劣者只会简单粗暴的炒作、洗盘、拉高、出货，高明者把概念层层包装然后让市场去挖掘深意。\n徐翔的泽熙投资是其中的翘楚。\n\n2015年一地鸡毛的重庆啤酒\n任何操纵市场的人，都不可能在行情癫狂期控制市场，大众媒体描述中的市场如提线木偶，散户如懵懂婴儿的情形，少之又少。\n所以操纵从来是极危险的行为，十年来，我目睹过不少成功的市场操纵，但失败的更多，众人调侃的“中国的第一批操盘手都在里面”，居多不是因为操纵成功，更多是因为操纵失败漏了底，毕竟这行都讲究“润物细无声”。\n多年前有人和我说过：操纵市场就像“控制”婴儿，最重要的一部分往往不是操纵，而是挑选性格“温顺可爱者”：如盘子偏小但不能太小，如大股东持股不应太高，或者与大股东合作，如最好身处热点行业或门类中的冷门股，如质地不能太差，有一定的安全边际，如企业最好身处中西部，有信息水位差。\n但如果全拿着别人的资金翻云覆雨，赚钱我来，亏损你担，则不止有操纵，更有违信义与责任。\n市场操纵的本质是什么\n如果把金融市场当做社会的“镜像”，任何一个正常的社会，投机取巧者都不会是主流，更多的是脚踏实地经营生活的人。\n期货、股票市场也一样，一颗老鼠屎不可能污染一锅汤，但却可能导致别人一口汤不喝。所以类似“市值管理”这样的皇帝新装可以横行多年，业内人士秉持中庸之道故作不知，外面的人自然把你们当做一丘之貉，然后无差别踩死。\n但划清界限又是非常难的事情——买入或者唱多一只股票，其目的无非是获取收益，这和操纵市场的目的是一样的，只是手段不同。定义的模糊性，导致金融监管很容易时松时紧，尤其是监管跟不上“金融创新”的时候，古今中外概莫能外。\n离我们最近的大案，是摩根大通的贵金属市场操纵案，期间持续了超过10年，但在我入行不久，就知道摩根大通对有色金属和贵金属的现货仓储有很高的掌控力，摩根大通将其“变现”是自然而然的事情。\n\n摩根大通长期持有comex一半白银储备\n任何操纵，本质上通过各种手段“变现”自己的资源和影响力，利用信息差、资金差、舆论差欺负弱势群体，或者说任何营造不平等竞争环境的行为，都可以归类到操纵。监管的目的不是保护散户，也不是维持机构的积极性，而是保证整个市场的定价是准确、公平的，是有效的。对于监管者来说，市场不是“需要监护的婴儿”，市场就是市场，需要的不是“父亲式”的呵护，因为这会适得其反，让自己投鼠忌器，让施害者肆无忌惮。市场最需要的，从来都是明正严肃的法律和不折不扣的执行，让“买卖”顺利进行\n但每逢牛市，无风险利率被砸到地心，泛滥的流动性不可避免的会扭曲市场，这也是近些年全球的金融监管明明在快速收紧，但泡沫和操纵行为屡禁不止的原因，兼之牛市可以轻松的将操纵行为隐藏于大盘普涨之下，如叶飞提及的市场操纵，普遍发生在2015年“水牛”高潮前后。\n最后\n对比我入行时，操纵行为已经大大减少，随着价值投资理念的普及，各种绩差仙股对散户的吸引力越来越小，近些年我乐见于很多“前辈盘手”打板不成反被埋、坐庄不成反成“价值投资派”，此前令人眼花缭乱的庄家手法也渐成绝响，成为民间金融传说的重要组成部分。\n不管基于何种目的，叶飞揭开“市值管理”的酱缸，让一众蝇营狗苟者暴露在阳光之下，恰如一句电影台词：如果罪恶没有得到严惩，那就是在鼓励犯罪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191914455,"gmtCreate":1620833204677,"gmtModify":1620833204677,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581661038826666","authorIdStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"破发以后没人管了","listText":"破发以后没人管了","text":"破发以后没人管了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191914455","repostId":"2134663317","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2134663317","pubTimestamp":1620704715,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2134663317?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-11 11:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"公益？商业？标签到底是什么？水滴上市首日破发 股价大跌近20％！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134663317","media":"每日商报","summary":"跌跌撞撞地上市，但并不意味着踉踉跄跄就此结束。发行价定为12美元的水滴公司，开盘仅10.25美元，低开15%，当日收盘价更是下跌至9.7美元，跌幅近20%。真正的标签到底是什么？美团为什么收购摩拜？截至2020年12月31日，超170万患者通过水滴筹获得了3.4亿人370多亿元的捐款。在水滴公司发布的招股说明书中显示，作为公司营收主要来源的水滴保，2018年的首年保费中85%的流量源自水滴筹和水滴互助两大内部平台。","content":"<html><body><article><p>“左手公益，右手生意？”、“戴着面具割韭菜？”、“脱去公益外衣，准备靠上市保命？”……在风口浪尖下，在漫天质疑中，5月7日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>公司终于“跌跌撞撞”地成功登陆美国纽交所，创造历史地成为中国在纽交所的“保险科技第一股”。</p><p>跌跌撞撞地上市，但并不意味着踉踉跄跄就此结束。发行价定为12美元的水滴公司，开盘仅10.25美元，低开15%，当日收盘价更是下跌至9.7美元，跌幅近20%。上市首日，水滴公司就陷入了“开盘就破发、一路跌跌跌”的尴尬境地，但其实回过头来，这一“定时炸弹”早在大半月前就已悄然埋下了。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13512299595/0\"/><p>4月17日，水滴公司正式递交赴美IPO申请，消息刚一“昭告天下”，来自各界的铺天盖地的争议声、质疑声、嘲讽声就如惊涛骇浪般迅速淹没了这一滴“水滴”。短短20天，负面舆论的声音并没有消散下去，反而有着愈演愈烈的征兆，归根结底，还是水滴公司没有将大众心中的一些疑虑解释清楚：公益平台、慈善组织、商业公司，哪个才是你真正的标签？三大业务之一的水滴互助关停后，商业链是否会就此断链？3年亏损近12亿元，再度起航要靠什么乘风破浪？</p><p>公益？商业？真正的标签到底是什么？</p><p>分文不收不要紧 “千亿流量”更心动</p><p>创立于2016年的水滴公司，在今年3月底前，旗下主营业务分为水滴筹、水滴互助、水滴保险商城（后文简称水滴保）3大类，虽然仅成立5年，但水滴公司已成功打造了专属自身的较为成熟的商业链——“筹款-互助-保险”。</p><p>作为水滴公司的“当家花旦”，因为区别于传统的救助方式，水滴筹自成立以来就迅速被大众熟知。0服务费，所有钱“取之于民、用之于民”，是水滴筹为经济困难的大病患者家庭提供筹款平台过程中，最令人连连称赞、频频拥护的两大特点。“筹款渠道的白月光”这一印象逐渐深入人心，但正因为叠加了太多美好的标签，当水滴公司发布公告准备上市时，不少人懵了、震惊了、愤怒了：公益平台要开始做生意了？慈善组织也能上市？</p><p>“水滴筹并非公益，而是公司主动承担社会责任的一种方式。”上市当晚，水滴公司创始人、董事会主席兼首席执行官沈鹏的公开表态，虽然没有给一边倒的舆论局势带来力挽狂澜的改变，但却给了大众一个新的选项——它只是一个商业公司。</p><p>过于美好，往往会让人们忽略了事物的本质。没错，自始至终，商业公司才是水滴公司真正的标签，而水滴筹，它只是一个互联网大病筹款工具，如果一定要为它的标签进行排序，它首先是水滴公司的产品，然后才是对社会有益的平台。这时，可能又有人要提出疑问了：如果水滴筹真的只是一个分文不收的产品，甚至运营它还要倒贴，那水滴公司图什么？</p><p>图它的“千亿流量”！美团为什么收购摩拜？阿里为什么扶持哈啰？明眼人都知道，看重的从来都不是平台能不能赚钱，而是其带来的大量流量和广大用户。水滴公司的企图也是亦然，通过家喻户晓的水滴筹吸收流量和关注，再通过水滴互助潜移默化地培养用户的保险意识，最后引流到水滴保上，就可以转化成货真价实的真金白银了。</p><p>美好不易常驻。截至2020年12月31日，超170万患者通过水滴筹获得了3.4亿人370多亿元的捐款。爱心数据非常可观，但近年来，关于水滴筹的负面新闻却不时爆出：“扫楼式筹款”、“爱心当买卖”、“吃人血馒头”……真真假假，亦真亦假。但尽管如此，退一万步讲，水滴筹确实真真实实地帮助到了170多万个家庭重获<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">新生</a>，其中的“苦劳”，不可否认。</p><p>网络互助行业进入瓶颈期</p><p>关停水滴互助或是明智之举</p><p>如果说水滴筹一直处于这股舆论“龙卷风”的核心区域，那么一个多月后，大众重谈水滴互助的关停，则为这股“不消停”的舆论又扎扎实实地添了一波势。</p><p>在水滴公司发布的招股说明书中显示，作为公司营收主要来源的水滴保，2018年的首年保费（FYP）中85%的流量源自水滴筹和水滴互助两大内部平台。而今年3月底，水滴互助的突然“关门”，直接切断了原本商业链的中间环节，外界担忧自此诞生：商业链是迎来重塑新生的机遇，还是会就此造成水滴筹和水滴保的“遥遥相望”、不复辉煌？</p><p>其实并不突然，一切都早有预兆。短短一年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>灯火互助“熄火”、美团互助下线、轻松互助关停，多个大型网络互助平台接二连三地倒下，就已经在预警着一个潜藏危机的到来——网络互助行业即将进入严重的瓶颈期。瓶颈期的由来是什么？用户分摊费用越来越高，平台运行合规成本大幅增加，行业仍处于无监管状态，等等，细细想来，不管是用户，还是平台，都在承担越来越重的负担，所以，瓶颈期的到来，只是时间问题而已。</p><p>断而不断，必有后患。仅综观发展形势，水滴公司在上市前，果断地主动关闭水滴互助平台，或许是一个明智之举。在“吸流”上，水滴筹和水滴互助的“携手”流量贡献率近两年呈现急剧下滑趋势，从2018年的85%下跌至2019年的35%，2020年更是进一步压缩至17%，其中水滴互助的贡献占比仅有3.6%，反而异军突起的第三方渠道在此期间开始了“攻城拔寨”，充分利用患者的社交关系链微信朋友圈、QQ空间等引入新流量，2020年第三方渠道流量贡献率高达近45%，大幅“挤压”了自身渠道流量的贡献空间。除此之外，水滴互助原有的“特殊使命”——引流，其实也基本大功告成，对于老用户保险意识的启蒙在5年的时间里可以挖掘的都陆续挖掘了，而对于新进入或有可能进入的用户，由于流量依赖性更多来自外部渠道，水滴互助的引流作用在匹配度上可能收效甚微。</p><p>塞翁失马，焉知非福。对于水滴公司而言，关停水滴互助对公司未来整体业绩，其实并不会带来很大的直接影响，或许还可能塑造了一个适时的契机，让水滴公司有机会在上市前进行商业模式的重整和再建。</p><p>半颗定心丸：几何级增长的水滴保</p><p>业务触角伸向医疗健康领域</p><p>再回看水滴公司上市首日的破发，一切当然也不是无风起浪，股民对公司上市后的真实盈利能力所持的观望或不信任的态度，显而易见。</p><p>招股说明书中显示，近3年水滴公司分别实现营收2.38亿元、15.11亿元、30.28亿元，翻番的增长势头十分强劲，但即使有着营收大幅增长的外壳，股民们还是透过现象看到了连年亏损的本质：2018年—2020年，水滴公司净亏损分别为2.09亿元、3.22亿元以及6.64亿元，3年净亏损达11.95亿元。那这是不是就意味着，水滴公司的盈利能力，已进入愁云惨淡的地步了呢？</p><p>本质后面可能还有本质。3年都在亏损，不可否认，但亏损比例，其实也在收窄，趋势整体稳中向好。此外，作为水滴公司的业绩大头，水滴保近年来的强势表现有目共睹，从2018年到2020年，水滴保累计购买保险用户人数从170万迅猛增长至1920万，产生的首年保费从9.72亿元大涨至144.26亿元，几何级增长势头怎么也算得上是半颗定心丸了。</p><p>作为7轮<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>融资的对象、资本市场的超级宠儿，水滴公司的基石投资者阵容也足够华丽，已公布名单中王慧文、博裕资本、厚朴资本就合计认购2.1亿美元。那么，各大商业巨头为什么都如此青睐水滴公司呢？</p><p>水滴公司在招股说明书中重点强调的一句话——先进的技术和差异化的数据洞察力，或许会是一个关键的答案。近年来，水滴公司通过累积和构建保险数据、医疗数据和用户数据3大独家数据库，逐步构造成了一个以“水滴大脑”为名的智慧系统，经过赋能落地后，目前水滴保已完成了承保核保、续费续保、退费退保以及保全服务的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>线上化，实现率接近100%。有了可观的数据量作为支撑，在未来战略上，水滴公司也有了自己“大展拳脚”的新方向，去年通过上线水滴健康和水滴好药付两大产品，公司的业务触角正式伸向了医疗健康领域，并宣布将打造一个“保险+健康服务”的生态圈作为长期目标。</p><p>“第一天的表现并不代表后续的表现，短期价格波动并不会对公司产生很多影响。”5月7日，水滴公司联合创始人、保险保障事业群总经理杨光，针对公司上市首日股价的低迷表现如此回应道。确实，一天的糟糕，并不足以否认全部，但这同时也表露出了外界对水滴公司真实、混乱、错杂的声音。</p><p>摘下不属于自己的“面具”，正视作为商业公司的本质，厘清大众的万千质疑，深耕保险科技的更多面，如此这样，“水滴2.0”的未来，仍值得我们拭目以待。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>公益？商业？标签到底是什么？水滴上市首日破发 股价大跌近20％！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n公益？商业？标签到底是什么？水滴上市首日破发 股价大跌近20％！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-11 11:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105111159597994940e&s=b><strong>每日商报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“左手公益，右手生意？”、“戴着面具割韭菜？”、“脱去公益外衣，准备靠上市保命？”……在风口浪尖下，在漫天质疑中，5月7日，水滴公司终于“跌跌撞撞”地成功登陆美国纽交所，创造历史地成为中国在纽交所的“保险科技第一股”。跌跌撞撞地上市，但并不意味着踉踉跄跄就此结束。发行价定为12美元的水滴公司，开盘仅10.25美元，低开15%，当日收盘价更是下跌至9.7美元，跌幅近20%。上市首日，水滴公司就陷入了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105111159597994940e&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d015cecb7c07cac91ad41d21b12463","relate_stocks":{"WDH":"水滴"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105111159597994940e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2134663317","content_text":"“左手公益，右手生意？”、“戴着面具割韭菜？”、“脱去公益外衣，准备靠上市保命？”……在风口浪尖下，在漫天质疑中，5月7日，水滴公司终于“跌跌撞撞”地成功登陆美国纽交所，创造历史地成为中国在纽交所的“保险科技第一股”。跌跌撞撞地上市，但并不意味着踉踉跄跄就此结束。发行价定为12美元的水滴公司，开盘仅10.25美元，低开15%，当日收盘价更是下跌至9.7美元，跌幅近20%。上市首日，水滴公司就陷入了“开盘就破发、一路跌跌跌”的尴尬境地，但其实回过头来，这一“定时炸弹”早在大半月前就已悄然埋下了。4月17日，水滴公司正式递交赴美IPO申请，消息刚一“昭告天下”，来自各界的铺天盖地的争议声、质疑声、嘲讽声就如惊涛骇浪般迅速淹没了这一滴“水滴”。短短20天，负面舆论的声音并没有消散下去，反而有着愈演愈烈的征兆，归根结底，还是水滴公司没有将大众心中的一些疑虑解释清楚：公益平台、慈善组织、商业公司，哪个才是你真正的标签？三大业务之一的水滴互助关停后，商业链是否会就此断链？3年亏损近12亿元，再度起航要靠什么乘风破浪？公益？商业？真正的标签到底是什么？分文不收不要紧 “千亿流量”更心动创立于2016年的水滴公司，在今年3月底前，旗下主营业务分为水滴筹、水滴互助、水滴保险商城（后文简称水滴保）3大类，虽然仅成立5年，但水滴公司已成功打造了专属自身的较为成熟的商业链——“筹款-互助-保险”。作为水滴公司的“当家花旦”，因为区别于传统的救助方式，水滴筹自成立以来就迅速被大众熟知。0服务费，所有钱“取之于民、用之于民”，是水滴筹为经济困难的大病患者家庭提供筹款平台过程中，最令人连连称赞、频频拥护的两大特点。“筹款渠道的白月光”这一印象逐渐深入人心，但正因为叠加了太多美好的标签，当水滴公司发布公告准备上市时，不少人懵了、震惊了、愤怒了：公益平台要开始做生意了？慈善组织也能上市？“水滴筹并非公益，而是公司主动承担社会责任的一种方式。”上市当晚，水滴公司创始人、董事会主席兼首席执行官沈鹏的公开表态，虽然没有给一边倒的舆论局势带来力挽狂澜的改变，但却给了大众一个新的选项——它只是一个商业公司。过于美好，往往会让人们忽略了事物的本质。没错，自始至终，商业公司才是水滴公司真正的标签，而水滴筹，它只是一个互联网大病筹款工具，如果一定要为它的标签进行排序，它首先是水滴公司的产品，然后才是对社会有益的平台。这时，可能又有人要提出疑问了：如果水滴筹真的只是一个分文不收的产品，甚至运营它还要倒贴，那水滴公司图什么？图它的“千亿流量”！美团为什么收购摩拜？阿里为什么扶持哈啰？明眼人都知道，看重的从来都不是平台能不能赚钱，而是其带来的大量流量和广大用户。水滴公司的企图也是亦然，通过家喻户晓的水滴筹吸收流量和关注，再通过水滴互助潜移默化地培养用户的保险意识，最后引流到水滴保上，就可以转化成货真价实的真金白银了。美好不易常驻。截至2020年12月31日，超170万患者通过水滴筹获得了3.4亿人370多亿元的捐款。爱心数据非常可观，但近年来，关于水滴筹的负面新闻却不时爆出：“扫楼式筹款”、“爱心当买卖”、“吃人血馒头”……真真假假，亦真亦假。但尽管如此，退一万步讲，水滴筹确实真真实实地帮助到了170多万个家庭重获新生，其中的“苦劳”，不可否认。网络互助行业进入瓶颈期关停水滴互助或是明智之举如果说水滴筹一直处于这股舆论“龙卷风”的核心区域，那么一个多月后，大众重谈水滴互助的关停，则为这股“不消停”的舆论又扎扎实实地添了一波势。在水滴公司发布的招股说明书中显示，作为公司营收主要来源的水滴保，2018年的首年保费（FYP）中85%的流量源自水滴筹和水滴互助两大内部平台。而今年3月底，水滴互助的突然“关门”，直接切断了原本商业链的中间环节，外界担忧自此诞生：商业链是迎来重塑新生的机遇，还是会就此造成水滴筹和水滴保的“遥遥相望”、不复辉煌？其实并不突然，一切都早有预兆。短短一年，百度灯火互助“熄火”、美团互助下线、轻松互助关停，多个大型网络互助平台接二连三地倒下，就已经在预警着一个潜藏危机的到来——网络互助行业即将进入严重的瓶颈期。瓶颈期的由来是什么？用户分摊费用越来越高，平台运行合规成本大幅增加，行业仍处于无监管状态，等等，细细想来，不管是用户，还是平台，都在承担越来越重的负担，所以，瓶颈期的到来，只是时间问题而已。断而不断，必有后患。仅综观发展形势，水滴公司在上市前，果断地主动关闭水滴互助平台，或许是一个明智之举。在“吸流”上，水滴筹和水滴互助的“携手”流量贡献率近两年呈现急剧下滑趋势，从2018年的85%下跌至2019年的35%，2020年更是进一步压缩至17%，其中水滴互助的贡献占比仅有3.6%，反而异军突起的第三方渠道在此期间开始了“攻城拔寨”，充分利用患者的社交关系链微信朋友圈、QQ空间等引入新流量，2020年第三方渠道流量贡献率高达近45%，大幅“挤压”了自身渠道流量的贡献空间。除此之外，水滴互助原有的“特殊使命”——引流，其实也基本大功告成，对于老用户保险意识的启蒙在5年的时间里可以挖掘的都陆续挖掘了，而对于新进入或有可能进入的用户，由于流量依赖性更多来自外部渠道，水滴互助的引流作用在匹配度上可能收效甚微。塞翁失马，焉知非福。对于水滴公司而言，关停水滴互助对公司未来整体业绩，其实并不会带来很大的直接影响，或许还可能塑造了一个适时的契机，让水滴公司有机会在上市前进行商业模式的重整和再建。半颗定心丸：几何级增长的水滴保业务触角伸向医疗健康领域再回看水滴公司上市首日的破发，一切当然也不是无风起浪，股民对公司上市后的真实盈利能力所持的观望或不信任的态度，显而易见。招股说明书中显示，近3年水滴公司分别实现营收2.38亿元、15.11亿元、30.28亿元，翻番的增长势头十分强劲，但即使有着营收大幅增长的外壳，股民们还是透过现象看到了连年亏损的本质：2018年—2020年，水滴公司净亏损分别为2.09亿元、3.22亿元以及6.64亿元，3年净亏损达11.95亿元。那这是不是就意味着，水滴公司的盈利能力，已进入愁云惨淡的地步了呢？本质后面可能还有本质。3年都在亏损，不可否认，但亏损比例，其实也在收窄，趋势整体稳中向好。此外，作为水滴公司的业绩大头，水滴保近年来的强势表现有目共睹，从2018年到2020年，水滴保累计购买保险用户人数从170万迅猛增长至1920万，产生的首年保费从9.72亿元大涨至144.26亿元，几何级增长势头怎么也算得上是半颗定心丸了。作为7轮豪华融资的对象、资本市场的超级宠儿，水滴公司的基石投资者阵容也足够华丽，已公布名单中王慧文、博裕资本、厚朴资本就合计认购2.1亿美元。那么，各大商业巨头为什么都如此青睐水滴公司呢？水滴公司在招股说明书中重点强调的一句话——先进的技术和差异化的数据洞察力，或许会是一个关键的答案。近年来，水滴公司通过累积和构建保险数据、医疗数据和用户数据3大独家数据库，逐步构造成了一个以“水滴大脑”为名的智慧系统，经过赋能落地后，目前水滴保已完成了承保核保、续费续保、退费退保以及保全服务的智能线上化，实现率接近100%。有了可观的数据量作为支撑，在未来战略上，水滴公司也有了自己“大展拳脚”的新方向，去年通过上线水滴健康和水滴好药付两大产品，公司的业务触角正式伸向了医疗健康领域，并宣布将打造一个“保险+健康服务”的生态圈作为长期目标。“第一天的表现并不代表后续的表现，短期价格波动并不会对公司产生很多影响。”5月7日，水滴公司联合创始人、保险保障事业群总经理杨光，针对公司上市首日股价的低迷表现如此回应道。确实，一天的糟糕，并不足以否认全部，但这同时也表露出了外界对水滴公司真实、混乱、错杂的声音。摘下不属于自己的“面具”，正视作为商业公司的本质，厘清大众的万千质疑，深耕保险科技的更多面，如此这样，“水滴2.0”的未来，仍值得我们拭目以待。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626383985,"gmtCreate":1673838252247,"gmtModify":1673838254263,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581661038826666","authorIdStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626383985","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626307347,"gmtCreate":1673764470889,"gmtModify":1673764472512,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581661038826666","authorIdStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😁","listText":"😁","text":"😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626307347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628613536,"gmtCreate":1673151984125,"gmtModify":1673151985977,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581661038826666","authorIdStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628613536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0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