法清的个人主页 - 老虎社区

法清

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582关注

13粉丝

5主题

0勋章

2023-01-16

[微笑]

2023-01-15

😁

2023-01-14

😁

2023-01-13

[微笑]

2023-01-12

😁

2023-01-08

[微笑]

2023-01-06

[微笑]

2023-01-05

[开心]

2023-01-04

😁😁

2023-01-02

😁

2022-12-30

！

2022-12-27

😁

2022-12-26

😁

2022-12-06

😁

2021-07-08

京东物流咋回事

2021-07-06

什么原因啊，坑死人呢

京东物流(02618.HK)盘中跳水现跌超5%

2021-06-30

继续努力。等的好辛苦

2021-06-25

投资眼光独到，但是瓶装水也污染了环境。或许就是她的失去吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

啥意思呢好还是不好

深交所：将京东物流调入港股通股票名单

2021-06-08

怎么参与？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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11:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"京东物流(02618.HK)盘中跳水 现跌超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149635874","media":"东方财富研究中心","summary":"【行情】京东物流(02618.HK)盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报38.5港元。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=116.02618&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a></span>(02618.HK)盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报38.5港元。</p><p>（文章来源：<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">东方财富</a></span><span></span>研究中心）</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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20:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"记录思考：市场操纵的本质是什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122542619","media":"扑克投资家","summary":"过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。\n涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博","content":"<p>过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。</p>\n<p>涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博时这样的老牌资管，整个证券行业在上周末一片鸡飞狗跳，忐忑彷徨者有之，幸灾乐祸和凑近吃瓜的更多。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603709\">中源家居</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300503\">昊志机电</a>等股票的投资者莫名躺枪，周一早上ST板块甚至上演了百股跌停，小盘绩差股在大盘翻红之下一片惨绿，遍地皆是脸有便秘之色的小盘股投资者。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e173f836d004c2b37be5eaa0a9f3ac01\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>一片惨绿的小盘绩差股</i></p>\n<p>姑且不论叶飞基于何种鱼死网破的恐惧披露这样的“惊天大瓜”，<b>对任何一个小有阅历的职业作手来说，“市值管理”都像是皇帝的新装，大家知根知底但纷纷装傻</b>：一者市值管理在古今中外都是一个监管难题，上市公司有很强的“调整”股价的意愿，施加监管高压则无非从明面转入地下；二者市值管理具有很强的隐蔽性，对基金公司来说，买入卖出股票并不需要公布缘由，甚至总能找到看似合情合理的看好或者不看好的理由。</p>\n<p><b>新与旧的市场操纵</b></p>\n<p>自1792年现代证券在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCBK\">哈德逊</a>湾旁华尔街的梧桐树下诞生，操纵就如影随形，如附骨之疽。在整个波澜壮阔的19世纪和20世纪初，丹尼尔·德鲁、范德比尔特、J·P·摩根、卡耐基等商界巨贾都以操纵市场为常态，<b>大亨们视市场为战场，散户们也乐于跟着他们“上阵厮杀”</b>，其间更有詹姆斯·菲斯克、杰伊·古尔德、杰西·利弗莫尔、伯纳德·巴鲁克这样的股票老妖兴风作浪、纵横捭阖。</p>\n<p>金融恶魔杰伊·古尔德甚至以一己之力在1869年引爆了一场金融危机，市场在此后低迷了整整20年（主要因为南北战争后产能过剩），也许这是最早的“黑色星期五”。</p>\n<p>但就是这样一位“法外狂徒”，却可以安享晚年，善始善终，没有任何一位检察官可以把他送入监狱。</p>\n<p>市场操纵的草莽时代，大亨们和当时西进运动中粗鲁的牛仔别无二致——为达目的无所不用其极，没有法律，也没有公众可以约束他们。</p>\n<p>在2005年之前，<b>中国的金融市场也经历了类似的时期：以327国债事件为先声，以吕梁奔逃为高潮，以德隆垮台唐万新入狱为曲终。</b></p>\n<p>与现在“精致利己主义”式的操纵者不同，草莽们一手执刀、一手高举价值大旗。不管是操纵中科创业时，吕梁言必声称的战略投资，还是唐万新屡屡宣讲的“中国的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦”，其本质上都是一种先上车后补票的行为——通过概念和图形、手法筹集资金，然后拿着这笔钱勾勒未来蓝图。</p>\n<p>模式听起来异常眼熟，这不是现在盛行美股的SPAC（特殊目的并购公司）模式么？先开一张空头支票，然后大家各凭地位名气和画饼功力筹集资金，最后拿着钱并购资产坐实“价值”。就连李泽楷也搞起了SPAC 生意，和美国传奇投资人彼得·蒂尔成立SPAC公司Bridgetown Holdings以并购印尼电商巨头PT Tokopedia。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f720373ff48270312d1ac943312fd6\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>SPAC年度募资总额对比（截止2021年1月）</i></p>\n<p>类似的情形，在80年代美股杠杆收购大潮中也出现过。</p>\n<p>由此可见，市场操纵和市场操作的界限远非想象的分明，每一波牛市的高潮，各路牛鬼蛇神都迫不及待的想要操纵市场，<b>毕竟站着挣钱费心费力，而摸别人口袋，只要没被抓，那就是一本万利</b>。</p>\n<p><b>“市场操纵”的玩法</b></p>\n<p>不管背后做了多少眼花缭乱的包装，<b>市场操纵的目的都只有一个，那就是扩大零和博弈中双方的盈亏</b>，不管“市值管理”的目的是否基于此，都会造成这种结果。所以任何市场操纵行为，不管目标和初衷如何，都应该被广大个人投资者唾弃，因为当有人可以悄无声息把手伸进你的口袋时，你不能指望他不掏一把。</p>\n<p>十年前我入行时，市面上充斥着的，是对所谓庄家的研究，下到小散上到资管机构，所谓庄家操纵市场，无非只有两个方面：让别人在不该抛出的地方抛出，在不该买入的地方买入；让别人在该抛出的地方不抛，在该买入的地方没有买入。</p>\n<p>由此衍生出两类策略：洗盘和出货。</p>\n<p><b>任何丰富的市场操纵，必以K线为骨，以基本面信息为皮肉，以价值为五脏；先以皮相、骨相引人入场，再以价值拴住。</b>名为操纵，实乃把故事通过天马行空的思路重构，然后倾倒到市场。拙劣者只会简单粗暴的炒作、洗盘、拉高、出货，高明者把概念层层包装然后让市场去挖掘深意。</p>\n<p>徐翔的泽熙投资是其中的翘楚。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1803b9a87388eb662ac39091d8d902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>2015年一地鸡毛的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600132\">重庆啤酒</a></i></p>\n<p>任何操纵市场的人，都不可能在行情癫狂期控制市场，大众媒体描述中的市场如提线木偶，散户如懵懂婴儿的情形，少之又少。</p>\n<p>所以操纵从来是极危险的行为，十年来，我目睹过不少成功的市场操纵，但失败的更多，众人调侃的“中国的第一批操盘手都在里面”，居多不是因为操纵成功，更多是因为操纵失败漏了底，毕竟这行都讲究“润物细无声”。</p>\n<p>多年前有人和我说过：<b>操纵市场就像“控制”婴儿，最重要的一部分往往不是操纵，而是挑选性格“温顺可爱者”</b>：如盘子偏小但不能太小，如大股东持股不应太高，或者与大股东合作，如最好身处热点行业或门类中的冷门股，如质地不能太差，有一定的安全边际，如企业最好身处中西部，有信息水位差。</p>\n<p>但如果全拿着别人的资金翻云覆雨，赚钱我来，亏损你担，则不止有操纵，更有违信义与责任。</p>\n<p><b>市场操纵的本质是什么</b></p>\n<p>如果把金融市场当做社会的“镜像”，任何一个正常的社会，投机取巧者都不会是主流，更多的是脚踏实地经营生活的人。</p>\n<p>期货、股票市场也一样，<b>一颗老鼠屎不可能污染一锅汤，但却可能导致别人一口汤不喝</b>。所以类似“市值管理”这样的皇帝新装可以横行多年，业内人士秉持中庸之道故作不知，外面的人自然把你们当做一丘之貉，然后无差别踩死。</p>\n<p>但划清界限又是非常难的事情——买入或者唱多一只股票，其目的无非是获取收益，这和操纵市场的目的是一样的，只是手段不同。定义的模糊性，导致金融监管很容易时松时紧，尤其是监管跟不上“金融创新”的时候，古今中外概莫能外。</p>\n<p>离我们最近的大案，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的贵金属市场操纵案，期间持续了超过10年，但在我入行不久，就知道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对有色金属和贵金属的现货仓储有很高的掌控力，摩根大通将其“变现”是自然而然的事情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5817e0d4b0ffb5887ca9a7530e7e4420\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>摩根大通长期持有comex一半白银储备</i></p>\n<p><b>任何操纵，本质上通过各种手段“变现”自己的资源和影响力，利用信息差、资金差、舆论差欺负弱势群体</b>，或者说任何营造不平等竞争环境的行为，都可以归类到操纵。监管的目的不是保护散户，也不是维持机构的积极性，而是保证整个市场的定价是准确、公平的，是有效的。对于监管者来说，市场不是“需要监护的婴儿”，市场就是市场，需要的不是“父亲式”的呵护，因为这会适得其反，让自己投鼠忌器，让施害者肆无忌惮。市场最需要的，从来都是明正严肃的法律和不折不扣的执行，让“买卖”顺利进行</p>\n<p>但每逢牛市，无风险利率被砸到地心，泛滥的流动性不可避免的会扭曲市场，这也是近些年全球的金融监管明明在快速收紧，但泡沫和操纵行为屡禁不止的原因，兼之牛市可以轻松的将操纵行为隐藏于大盘普涨之下，如叶飞提及的市场操纵，普遍发生在2015年“水牛”高潮前后。</p>\n<p><b>最后</b></p>\n<p>对比我入行时，操纵行为已经大大减少，随着价值投资理念的普及，各种绩差仙股对散户的吸引力越来越小，近些年我乐见于很多“前辈盘手”打板不成反被埋、坐庄不成反成“价值投资派”，此前令人眼花缭乱的庄家手法也渐成绝响，成为民间金融传说的重要组成部分。</p>\n<p>不管基于何种目的，叶飞揭开“市值管理”的酱缸，让一众蝇营狗苟者暴露在阳光之下，恰如一句电影台词：<b>如果罪恶没有得到严惩，那就是在鼓励犯罪。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n记录思考：市场操纵的本质是什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/62\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb4f7cd07114ea0816f9d726f7b283f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">扑克投资家 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-17 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。</p>\n<p>涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博时这样的老牌资管，整个证券行业在上周末一片鸡飞狗跳，忐忑彷徨者有之，幸灾乐祸和凑近吃瓜的更多。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603709\">中源家居</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300503\">昊志机电</a>等股票的投资者莫名躺枪，周一早上ST板块甚至上演了百股跌停，小盘绩差股在大盘翻红之下一片惨绿，遍地皆是脸有便秘之色的小盘股投资者。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e173f836d004c2b37be5eaa0a9f3ac01\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>一片惨绿的小盘绩差股</i></p>\n<p>姑且不论叶飞基于何种鱼死网破的恐惧披露这样的“惊天大瓜”，<b>对任何一个小有阅历的职业作手来说，“市值管理”都像是皇帝的新装，大家知根知底但纷纷装傻</b>：一者市值管理在古今中外都是一个监管难题，上市公司有很强的“调整”股价的意愿，施加监管高压则无非从明面转入地下；二者市值管理具有很强的隐蔽性，对基金公司来说，买入卖出股票并不需要公布缘由，甚至总能找到看似合情合理的看好或者不看好的理由。</p>\n<p><b>新与旧的市场操纵</b></p>\n<p>自1792年现代证券在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCBK\">哈德逊</a>湾旁华尔街的梧桐树下诞生，操纵就如影随形，如附骨之疽。在整个波澜壮阔的19世纪和20世纪初，丹尼尔·德鲁、范德比尔特、J·P·摩根、卡耐基等商界巨贾都以操纵市场为常态，<b>大亨们视市场为战场，散户们也乐于跟着他们“上阵厮杀”</b>，其间更有詹姆斯·菲斯克、杰伊·古尔德、杰西·利弗莫尔、伯纳德·巴鲁克这样的股票老妖兴风作浪、纵横捭阖。</p>\n<p>金融恶魔杰伊·古尔德甚至以一己之力在1869年引爆了一场金融危机，市场在此后低迷了整整20年（主要因为南北战争后产能过剩），也许这是最早的“黑色星期五”。</p>\n<p>但就是这样一位“法外狂徒”，却可以安享晚年，善始善终，没有任何一位检察官可以把他送入监狱。</p>\n<p>市场操纵的草莽时代，大亨们和当时西进运动中粗鲁的牛仔别无二致——为达目的无所不用其极，没有法律，也没有公众可以约束他们。</p>\n<p>在2005年之前，<b>中国的金融市场也经历了类似的时期：以327国债事件为先声，以吕梁奔逃为高潮，以德隆垮台唐万新入狱为曲终。</b></p>\n<p>与现在“精致利己主义”式的操纵者不同，草莽们一手执刀、一手高举价值大旗。不管是操纵中科创业时，吕梁言必声称的战略投资，还是唐万新屡屡宣讲的“中国的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦”，其本质上都是一种先上车后补票的行为——通过概念和图形、手法筹集资金，然后拿着这笔钱勾勒未来蓝图。</p>\n<p>模式听起来异常眼熟，这不是现在盛行美股的SPAC（特殊目的并购公司）模式么？先开一张空头支票，然后大家各凭地位名气和画饼功力筹集资金，最后拿着钱并购资产坐实“价值”。就连李泽楷也搞起了SPAC 生意，和美国传奇投资人彼得·蒂尔成立SPAC公司Bridgetown Holdings以并购印尼电商巨头PT Tokopedia。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f720373ff48270312d1ac943312fd6\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>SPAC年度募资总额对比（截止2021年1月）</i></p>\n<p>类似的情形，在80年代美股杠杆收购大潮中也出现过。</p>\n<p>由此可见，市场操纵和市场操作的界限远非想象的分明，每一波牛市的高潮，各路牛鬼蛇神都迫不及待的想要操纵市场，<b>毕竟站着挣钱费心费力，而摸别人口袋，只要没被抓，那就是一本万利</b>。</p>\n<p><b>“市场操纵”的玩法</b></p>\n<p>不管背后做了多少眼花缭乱的包装，<b>市场操纵的目的都只有一个，那就是扩大零和博弈中双方的盈亏</b>，不管“市值管理”的目的是否基于此，都会造成这种结果。所以任何市场操纵行为，不管目标和初衷如何，都应该被广大个人投资者唾弃，因为当有人可以悄无声息把手伸进你的口袋时，你不能指望他不掏一把。</p>\n<p>十年前我入行时，市面上充斥着的，是对所谓庄家的研究，下到小散上到资管机构，所谓庄家操纵市场，无非只有两个方面：让别人在不该抛出的地方抛出，在不该买入的地方买入；让别人在该抛出的地方不抛，在该买入的地方没有买入。</p>\n<p>由此衍生出两类策略：洗盘和出货。</p>\n<p><b>任何丰富的市场操纵，必以K线为骨，以基本面信息为皮肉，以价值为五脏；先以皮相、骨相引人入场，再以价值拴住。</b>名为操纵，实乃把故事通过天马行空的思路重构，然后倾倒到市场。拙劣者只会简单粗暴的炒作、洗盘、拉高、出货，高明者把概念层层包装然后让市场去挖掘深意。</p>\n<p>徐翔的泽熙投资是其中的翘楚。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1803b9a87388eb662ac39091d8d902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>2015年一地鸡毛的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600132\">重庆啤酒</a></i></p>\n<p>任何操纵市场的人，都不可能在行情癫狂期控制市场，大众媒体描述中的市场如提线木偶，散户如懵懂婴儿的情形，少之又少。</p>\n<p>所以操纵从来是极危险的行为，十年来，我目睹过不少成功的市场操纵，但失败的更多，众人调侃的“中国的第一批操盘手都在里面”，居多不是因为操纵成功，更多是因为操纵失败漏了底，毕竟这行都讲究“润物细无声”。</p>\n<p>多年前有人和我说过：<b>操纵市场就像“控制”婴儿，最重要的一部分往往不是操纵，而是挑选性格“温顺可爱者”</b>：如盘子偏小但不能太小，如大股东持股不应太高，或者与大股东合作，如最好身处热点行业或门类中的冷门股，如质地不能太差，有一定的安全边际，如企业最好身处中西部，有信息水位差。</p>\n<p>但如果全拿着别人的资金翻云覆雨，赚钱我来，亏损你担，则不止有操纵，更有违信义与责任。</p>\n<p><b>市场操纵的本质是什么</b></p>\n<p>如果把金融市场当做社会的“镜像”，任何一个正常的社会，投机取巧者都不会是主流，更多的是脚踏实地经营生活的人。</p>\n<p>期货、股票市场也一样，<b>一颗老鼠屎不可能污染一锅汤，但却可能导致别人一口汤不喝</b>。所以类似“市值管理”这样的皇帝新装可以横行多年，业内人士秉持中庸之道故作不知，外面的人自然把你们当做一丘之貉，然后无差别踩死。</p>\n<p>但划清界限又是非常难的事情——买入或者唱多一只股票，其目的无非是获取收益，这和操纵市场的目的是一样的，只是手段不同。定义的模糊性，导致金融监管很容易时松时紧，尤其是监管跟不上“金融创新”的时候，古今中外概莫能外。</p>\n<p>离我们最近的大案，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的贵金属市场操纵案，期间持续了超过10年，但在我入行不久，就知道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对有色金属和贵金属的现货仓储有很高的掌控力，摩根大通将其“变现”是自然而然的事情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5817e0d4b0ffb5887ca9a7530e7e4420\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>摩根大通长期持有comex一半白银储备</i></p>\n<p><b>任何操纵，本质上通过各种手段“变现”自己的资源和影响力，利用信息差、资金差、舆论差欺负弱势群体</b>，或者说任何营造不平等竞争环境的行为，都可以归类到操纵。监管的目的不是保护散户，也不是维持机构的积极性，而是保证整个市场的定价是准确、公平的，是有效的。对于监管者来说，市场不是“需要监护的婴儿”，市场就是市场，需要的不是“父亲式”的呵护，因为这会适得其反，让自己投鼠忌器，让施害者肆无忌惮。市场最需要的，从来都是明正严肃的法律和不折不扣的执行，让“买卖”顺利进行</p>\n<p>但每逢牛市，无风险利率被砸到地心，泛滥的流动性不可避免的会扭曲市场，这也是近些年全球的金融监管明明在快速收紧，但泡沫和操纵行为屡禁不止的原因，兼之牛市可以轻松的将操纵行为隐藏于大盘普涨之下，如叶飞提及的市场操纵，普遍发生在2015年“水牛”高潮前后。</p>\n<p><b>最后</b></p>\n<p>对比我入行时，操纵行为已经大大减少，随着价值投资理念的普及，各种绩差仙股对散户的吸引力越来越小，近些年我乐见于很多“前辈盘手”打板不成反被埋、坐庄不成反成“价值投资派”，此前令人眼花缭乱的庄家手法也渐成绝响，成为民间金融传说的重要组成部分。</p>\n<p>不管基于何种目的，叶飞揭开“市值管理”的酱缸，让一众蝇营狗苟者暴露在阳光之下，恰如一句电影台词：<b>如果罪恶没有得到严惩，那就是在鼓励犯罪。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80572af96e8ce44b09448601effd121c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122542619","content_text":"过气私募冠军、证券掮客叶飞通过一系列“现身说法”和爆料，把“市值管理”这个看似很有技术含量的词的外衣彻底剥去，里面包裹的是血淋淋的四个大字——市场操纵。\n涉事其中的不乏天风、民生等大型证券公司，更有博时这样的老牌资管，整个证券行业在上周末一片鸡飞狗跳，忐忑彷徨者有之，幸灾乐祸和凑近吃瓜的更多。\n中源家居、昊志机电等股票的投资者莫名躺枪，周一早上ST板块甚至上演了百股跌停，小盘绩差股在大盘翻红之下一片惨绿，遍地皆是脸有便秘之色的小盘股投资者。\n\n一片惨绿的小盘绩差股\n姑且不论叶飞基于何种鱼死网破的恐惧披露这样的“惊天大瓜”，对任何一个小有阅历的职业作手来说，“市值管理”都像是皇帝的新装，大家知根知底但纷纷装傻：一者市值管理在古今中外都是一个监管难题，上市公司有很强的“调整”股价的意愿，施加监管高压则无非从明面转入地下；二者市值管理具有很强的隐蔽性，对基金公司来说，买入卖出股票并不需要公布缘由，甚至总能找到看似合情合理的看好或者不看好的理由。\n新与旧的市场操纵\n自1792年现代证券在哈德逊湾旁华尔街的梧桐树下诞生，操纵就如影随形，如附骨之疽。在整个波澜壮阔的19世纪和20世纪初，丹尼尔·德鲁、范德比尔特、J·P·摩根、卡耐基等商界巨贾都以操纵市场为常态，大亨们视市场为战场，散户们也乐于跟着他们“上阵厮杀”，其间更有詹姆斯·菲斯克、杰伊·古尔德、杰西·利弗莫尔、伯纳德·巴鲁克这样的股票老妖兴风作浪、纵横捭阖。\n金融恶魔杰伊·古尔德甚至以一己之力在1869年引爆了一场金融危机，市场在此后低迷了整整20年（主要因为南北战争后产能过剩），也许这是最早的“黑色星期五”。\n但就是这样一位“法外狂徒”，却可以安享晚年，善始善终，没有任何一位检察官可以把他送入监狱。\n市场操纵的草莽时代，大亨们和当时西进运动中粗鲁的牛仔别无二致——为达目的无所不用其极，没有法律，也没有公众可以约束他们。\n在2005年之前，中国的金融市场也经历了类似的时期：以327国债事件为先声，以吕梁奔逃为高潮，以德隆垮台唐万新入狱为曲终。\n与现在“精致利己主义”式的操纵者不同，草莽们一手执刀、一手高举价值大旗。不管是操纵中科创业时，吕梁言必声称的战略投资，还是唐万新屡屡宣讲的“中国的伯克希尔·哈撒韦”，其本质上都是一种先上车后补票的行为——通过概念和图形、手法筹集资金，然后拿着这笔钱勾勒未来蓝图。\n模式听起来异常眼熟，这不是现在盛行美股的SPAC（特殊目的并购公司）模式么？先开一张空头支票，然后大家各凭地位名气和画饼功力筹集资金，最后拿着钱并购资产坐实“价值”。就连李泽楷也搞起了SPAC 生意，和美国传奇投资人彼得·蒂尔成立SPAC公司Bridgetown Holdings以并购印尼电商巨头PT Tokopedia。\n\nSPAC年度募资总额对比（截止2021年1月）\n类似的情形，在80年代美股杠杆收购大潮中也出现过。\n由此可见，市场操纵和市场操作的界限远非想象的分明，每一波牛市的高潮，各路牛鬼蛇神都迫不及待的想要操纵市场，毕竟站着挣钱费心费力，而摸别人口袋，只要没被抓，那就是一本万利。\n“市场操纵”的玩法\n不管背后做了多少眼花缭乱的包装，市场操纵的目的都只有一个，那就是扩大零和博弈中双方的盈亏，不管“市值管理”的目的是否基于此，都会造成这种结果。所以任何市场操纵行为，不管目标和初衷如何，都应该被广大个人投资者唾弃，因为当有人可以悄无声息把手伸进你的口袋时，你不能指望他不掏一把。\n十年前我入行时，市面上充斥着的，是对所谓庄家的研究，下到小散上到资管机构，所谓庄家操纵市场，无非只有两个方面：让别人在不该抛出的地方抛出，在不该买入的地方买入；让别人在该抛出的地方不抛，在该买入的地方没有买入。\n由此衍生出两类策略：洗盘和出货。\n任何丰富的市场操纵，必以K线为骨，以基本面信息为皮肉，以价值为五脏；先以皮相、骨相引人入场，再以价值拴住。名为操纵，实乃把故事通过天马行空的思路重构，然后倾倒到市场。拙劣者只会简单粗暴的炒作、洗盘、拉高、出货，高明者把概念层层包装然后让市场去挖掘深意。\n徐翔的泽熙投资是其中的翘楚。\n\n2015年一地鸡毛的重庆啤酒\n任何操纵市场的人，都不可能在行情癫狂期控制市场，大众媒体描述中的市场如提线木偶，散户如懵懂婴儿的情形，少之又少。\n所以操纵从来是极危险的行为，十年来，我目睹过不少成功的市场操纵，但失败的更多，众人调侃的“中国的第一批操盘手都在里面”，居多不是因为操纵成功，更多是因为操纵失败漏了底，毕竟这行都讲究“润物细无声”。\n多年前有人和我说过：操纵市场就像“控制”婴儿，最重要的一部分往往不是操纵，而是挑选性格“温顺可爱者”：如盘子偏小但不能太小，如大股东持股不应太高，或者与大股东合作，如最好身处热点行业或门类中的冷门股，如质地不能太差，有一定的安全边际，如企业最好身处中西部，有信息水位差。\n但如果全拿着别人的资金翻云覆雨，赚钱我来，亏损你担，则不止有操纵，更有违信义与责任。\n市场操纵的本质是什么\n如果把金融市场当做社会的“镜像”，任何一个正常的社会，投机取巧者都不会是主流，更多的是脚踏实地经营生活的人。\n期货、股票市场也一样，一颗老鼠屎不可能污染一锅汤，但却可能导致别人一口汤不喝。所以类似“市值管理”这样的皇帝新装可以横行多年，业内人士秉持中庸之道故作不知，外面的人自然把你们当做一丘之貉，然后无差别踩死。\n但划清界限又是非常难的事情——买入或者唱多一只股票，其目的无非是获取收益，这和操纵市场的目的是一样的，只是手段不同。定义的模糊性，导致金融监管很容易时松时紧，尤其是监管跟不上“金融创新”的时候，古今中外概莫能外。\n离我们最近的大案，是摩根大通的贵金属市场操纵案，期间持续了超过10年，但在我入行不久，就知道摩根大通对有色金属和贵金属的现货仓储有很高的掌控力，摩根大通将其“变现”是自然而然的事情。\n\n摩根大通长期持有comex一半白银储备\n任何操纵，本质上通过各种手段“变现”自己的资源和影响力，利用信息差、资金差、舆论差欺负弱势群体，或者说任何营造不平等竞争环境的行为，都可以归类到操纵。监管的目的不是保护散户，也不是维持机构的积极性，而是保证整个市场的定价是准确、公平的，是有效的。对于监管者来说，市场不是“需要监护的婴儿”，市场就是市场，需要的不是“父亲式”的呵护，因为这会适得其反，让自己投鼠忌器，让施害者肆无忌惮。市场最需要的，从来都是明正严肃的法律和不折不扣的执行，让“买卖”顺利进行\n但每逢牛市，无风险利率被砸到地心，泛滥的流动性不可避免的会扭曲市场，这也是近些年全球的金融监管明明在快速收紧，但泡沫和操纵行为屡禁不止的原因，兼之牛市可以轻松的将操纵行为隐藏于大盘普涨之下，如叶飞提及的市场操纵，普遍发生在2015年“水牛”高潮前后。\n最后\n对比我入行时，操纵行为已经大大减少，随着价值投资理念的普及，各种绩差仙股对散户的吸引力越来越小，近些年我乐见于很多“前辈盘手”打板不成反被埋、坐庄不成反成“价值投资派”，此前令人眼花缭乱的庄家手法也渐成绝响，成为民间金融传说的重要组成部分。\n不管基于何种目的，叶飞揭开“市值管理”的酱缸，让一众蝇营狗苟者暴露在阳光之下，恰如一句电影台词：如果罪恶没有得到严惩，那就是在鼓励犯罪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191914455,"gmtCreate":1620833204677,"gmtModify":1620833204677,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581661038826666","idStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"破发以后没人管了","listText":"破发以后没人管了","text":"破发以后没人管了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191914455","repostId":"2134663317","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626383985,"gmtCreate":1673838252247,"gmtModify":1673838254263,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581661038826666","idStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626383985","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626307347,"gmtCreate":1673764470889,"gmtModify":1673764472512,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581661038826666","idStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😁","listText":"😁","text":"😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626307347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628613536,"gmtCreate":1673151984125,"gmtModify":1673151985977,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6080e470b955d3144b122e3c17684c00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581661038826666","idStr":"3581661038826666"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628613536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628188405,"gmtCreate":1672969200007,"gmtModify":1672969201933,"author":{"id":"3581661038826666","authorId":"3581661038826666","name":"法清","avatar":"https://stati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