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2021-09-27

看不明這算利好電力還是利空

全民热议停电，中金解读：限电限产，对我们有何影响

2021-07-15

$台積電(TSM)$利好出盡

2021-07-06

$老虎證券(TIGR)$關老虎甚麽事？？？？有人解釋一下一路大跌的原因嗎？？？

2021-07-02

2

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

9乙一；我00；

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

十大劵商唱好馬上引起散戶恐慌情緒[笑哭]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-29

$老虎證券(TIGR)$ 原因只有一個就是富途在跌[捂脸]

2021-04-23

$小米集團-W(01810)$升不上跌不死的狀態

2021-04-22

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$至於嗎？？

2021-04-21

$富途控股(FUTU)$以700%淨利潤的增幅，增發的底氣和潛力也是有的，不至於一跌不起，跌多幾天恐慌情緒散去，隨時準備撈底。

2021-04-20

$老虎證券(TIGR)$永遠跟住富途走的股票

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:40","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"全民热议停电，中金解读：限电限产，对我们有何影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164942530","media":"中金点睛","summary":"煤炭供给不足导致的电力缺口，从7月以来便已经压制生产，年内或难以消除。","content":"<p>影响当前限电限产政策的主要逻辑有两条：</p>\n<p>第一，部分省份上半年能耗双控未能达标，近期为了完成3季度目标而集中限产，对短期生产带来冲击。</p>\n<p>第二，一些省份因为电力供给不足，而不得不采取用电指标分解、错峰用电等政策。能耗双控目标对短期生产影响较大，主要集中在9月，可能拖累当月工业增加值增速下滑至4-4.5%，部分能耗双控政策对生产的压制，会延续到年底。</p>\n<p>而煤炭供给不足导致的电力缺口，从7月以来便已经压制生产，年内或难以消除。</p>\n<p>总体来看，能耗双控政策对3、4季度经济增速的影响，均在0.1-0.15个百分点左右。我们预计，PPI年内同比增速或在9%以上，上游涨价对中下游盈利空间的挤压加剧，货币政策将保持稳中偏松。</p>\n<p>8月中下旬以来，部分地区在「能耗双控」目标的约束下大幅限产，对短期工业生产形成影响。8月国家发改委发布《2021年上半年各地区能耗双控目标完成情况晴雨表》显示，全国19个省份为一级、二级预警。</p>\n<p><b>图表1：广东、江苏等19个省份能耗双控压力较大</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f0bda4fb15c34fbb91375664f85f49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>注：西藏自治区数据暂缺，不纳入预警范围，地区排序的依据为各地区能耗强度降低率。</p>\n<p>资料来源：国家发改委，各省政府网站，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>随后各地相继出台严格的限电限产举措，包括江苏、广东、云南等省，对化工、钢铁、有色金属、非金属建材等行业进行限产。</p>\n<p><b>双控政策对经济的短期冲击主要集中体现在9月份的工业生产，我们从两个思路来考察能耗双控的影响：</b></p>\n<p>► 思路1：考察分行业的变化和投入产出视角下的影响。能耗双控主要针对「两高」项目，包括煤电、石化、化工、钢铁、有色金属冶炼、建材等6个行业类别。</p>\n<p>根据9月发电日耗煤量、钢铁周产量、水泥开工率等高频数据估算，能耗双控对相关行业生产的拖累约在3-5%。按照这6个产业的降幅来估算，9月工业生产受拖累约1.5%。</p>\n<p>假设这种供给约束向下传导，受影响较大的行业包括非金属矿物制品业、金属制品业、建筑业等。</p>\n<p><b>图表2：部分行业可能会面临供给约束带来的生产收缩</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ed43981c49e10777b3d411b33d187a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：国家统计局，万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>► 思路2：参考秋冬季环保限产对工业生产的影响。2017年首次执行京津冀地区秋冬季环保限产，对相关省份工业增加值平均拖累约3%。</p>\n<p>长三角2018年也开始执行秋冬季环保限产，但政策相对温和，江浙两省工业增加值拖累约0.5%。</p>\n<p>我们以这两个案例为基准，假设红色预警省份采取更严格措施、工业拖累3%，黄色预警省份政策相对温和，工业拖累0.5%，其余省份不做大规模额外限产，则对工业生产总的拖累约为1.3%。</p>\n<p><b>图表3：2017年首次秋冬季限产，京津冀晋四省市工业生产平均降幅比全国大约3个百分点</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc64aed4200b05820ada85ea5a6518e\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>图表4：2018年首次秋冬季限产，江苏、浙江工业生产降幅比全国大约0.5个百分点</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f8e7513e25dc173db9aee352a75ae10\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>除了能耗双控的短期冲击，电力供给不足也导致了7月以来持续性的限电限产。</p>\n<p>在需求端，受出口、气温等因素支撑，我国用电需求居高不下。1-8月全社会用电量同比增长13.8%，比规模以上企业发电量增速高2.5个百分点，创下2003年以来增速差的最大值，反映了用电紧张的格局。</p>\n<p>在供给端，水力发电同比负增长，火力发电则受到煤炭生产监管、进口煤炭减少等约束，难以弥补电力供给缺口。未来电力短缺对工业生产和居民生活的影响，或持续体现。</p>\n<p><b>图表11：火电和水电产量累计同比</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f826cf639c6cb2fd37f3522d386aadce\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>图表12：煤炭产量和进口数量累计同比</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15548d7a8519b342b9049c20c61b281b\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>图表13：沿海八省电厂存煤可用天数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a74a093b52c9a81e8dddddd1f2cd0d4e\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：CCTD，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>能耗双控政策的影响可能持续到年底，但4季度较9月会有边际改善。</p>\n<p>多数地方的能耗双控、限电限产政策截止时间并未明确，部分地方政策暂定截至9月底，比如江苏、浙江等地一些阶段性限产举措；也有些省份或城市的政策，将特定领域的限产持续到年底，比如云南（黄磷、铝、工业硅等）、广西（电解铝）、新疆（电解铝）等。</p>\n<p>总体来看，4季度工业生产仍然会一定程度上受能耗双控政策的压制，但在边际上会较9月有所好转。综合考虑9月能耗双控对工业生产的拖累，以及工业增加值占GDP比重，<b>我们预计9月生产收紧对3季度经济增速的影响在0.1-0.15个百分点。</b></p>\n<p>展望4季度，考虑到执行阶段性政策的省份的工业体量，明显大于将限产政策持续到年底的省份；并且持续到年底的产业政策，主要是针对特定领域（比如电解铝等）。</p>\n<p>9月份生产「急刹车」，可能更多是为了突击完成3季度的能耗双控目标。</p>\n<p>中性情形下，我们假设目前受到能耗双控影响的工业生产中，有30%的比例在四季度仍然受到压制，那么4季度经济增速受到的拖累约在0.1-0.15个百分点左右。未来还需关注3季度晴雨表发布后能耗双控政策的变化。</p>\n<p>供给约束支撑上游工业品价格，PPI同比增速年内或在9%以上，但上游涨价对中下游盈利空间的挤压加剧，货币政策将保持稳中偏松态势。</p>\n<p>我们认为，伴随采暖季临近，煤价或仍将坚挺；各地钢铁限产的同时，地产、城投严监管也抑制了需求，钢价或继续5月以来的震荡态势；国际油价、铜价受疫情扰动外出和生产、供给逐步释放、Taper临近等因素影响，可能延续近月的高位震荡态势。</p>\n<p>我们预计，年内PPI同比或维持在9%以上，CPI同比逐步回升、11月后升至2%以上。在原材料价格大涨、生产受限、运价高企的情况下，中下游利润空间受到挤压。7月降准后流动性偏松，近期利率市场的变化，可能更多反映了政府发债加速等因素的扰动，货币政策稳中偏松的态势并未转变。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全民热议停电，中金解读：限电限产，对我们有何影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全民热议停电，中金解读：限电限产，对我们有何影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金点睛 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-27 10:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>影响当前限电限产政策的主要逻辑有两条：</p>\n<p>第一，部分省份上半年能耗双控未能达标，近期为了完成3季度目标而集中限产，对短期生产带来冲击。</p>\n<p>第二，一些省份因为电力供给不足，而不得不采取用电指标分解、错峰用电等政策。能耗双控目标对短期生产影响较大，主要集中在9月，可能拖累当月工业增加值增速下滑至4-4.5%，部分能耗双控政策对生产的压制，会延续到年底。</p>\n<p>而煤炭供给不足导致的电力缺口，从7月以来便已经压制生产，年内或难以消除。</p>\n<p>总体来看，能耗双控政策对3、4季度经济增速的影响，均在0.1-0.15个百分点左右。我们预计，PPI年内同比增速或在9%以上，上游涨价对中下游盈利空间的挤压加剧，货币政策将保持稳中偏松。</p>\n<p>8月中下旬以来，部分地区在「能耗双控」目标的约束下大幅限产，对短期工业生产形成影响。8月国家发改委发布《2021年上半年各地区能耗双控目标完成情况晴雨表》显示，全国19个省份为一级、二级预警。</p>\n<p><b>图表1：广东、江苏等19个省份能耗双控压力较大</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f0bda4fb15c34fbb91375664f85f49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>注：西藏自治区数据暂缺，不纳入预警范围，地区排序的依据为各地区能耗强度降低率。</p>\n<p>资料来源：国家发改委，各省政府网站，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>随后各地相继出台严格的限电限产举措，包括江苏、广东、云南等省，对化工、钢铁、有色金属、非金属建材等行业进行限产。</p>\n<p><b>双控政策对经济的短期冲击主要集中体现在9月份的工业生产，我们从两个思路来考察能耗双控的影响：</b></p>\n<p>► 思路1：考察分行业的变化和投入产出视角下的影响。能耗双控主要针对「两高」项目，包括煤电、石化、化工、钢铁、有色金属冶炼、建材等6个行业类别。</p>\n<p>根据9月发电日耗煤量、钢铁周产量、水泥开工率等高频数据估算，能耗双控对相关行业生产的拖累约在3-5%。按照这6个产业的降幅来估算，9月工业生产受拖累约1.5%。</p>\n<p>假设这种供给约束向下传导，受影响较大的行业包括非金属矿物制品业、金属制品业、建筑业等。</p>\n<p><b>图表2：部分行业可能会面临供给约束带来的生产收缩</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ed43981c49e10777b3d411b33d187a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：国家统计局，万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>► 思路2：参考秋冬季环保限产对工业生产的影响。2017年首次执行京津冀地区秋冬季环保限产，对相关省份工业增加值平均拖累约3%。</p>\n<p>长三角2018年也开始执行秋冬季环保限产，但政策相对温和，江浙两省工业增加值拖累约0.5%。</p>\n<p>我们以这两个案例为基准，假设红色预警省份采取更严格措施、工业拖累3%，黄色预警省份政策相对温和，工业拖累0.5%，其余省份不做大规模额外限产，则对工业生产总的拖累约为1.3%。</p>\n<p><b>图表3：2017年首次秋冬季限产，京津冀晋四省市工业生产平均降幅比全国大约3个百分点</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc64aed4200b05820ada85ea5a6518e\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>图表4：2018年首次秋冬季限产，江苏、浙江工业生产降幅比全国大约0.5个百分点</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f8e7513e25dc173db9aee352a75ae10\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>除了能耗双控的短期冲击，电力供给不足也导致了7月以来持续性的限电限产。</p>\n<p>在需求端，受出口、气温等因素支撑，我国用电需求居高不下。1-8月全社会用电量同比增长13.8%，比规模以上企业发电量增速高2.5个百分点，创下2003年以来增速差的最大值，反映了用电紧张的格局。</p>\n<p>在供给端，水力发电同比负增长，火力发电则受到煤炭生产监管、进口煤炭减少等约束，难以弥补电力供给缺口。未来电力短缺对工业生产和居民生活的影响，或持续体现。</p>\n<p><b>图表11：火电和水电产量累计同比</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f826cf639c6cb2fd37f3522d386aadce\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>图表12：煤炭产量和进口数量累计同比</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15548d7a8519b342b9049c20c61b281b\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>图表13：沿海八省电厂存煤可用天数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a74a093b52c9a81e8dddddd1f2cd0d4e\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：CCTD，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>能耗双控政策的影响可能持续到年底，但4季度较9月会有边际改善。</p>\n<p>多数地方的能耗双控、限电限产政策截止时间并未明确，部分地方政策暂定截至9月底，比如江苏、浙江等地一些阶段性限产举措；也有些省份或城市的政策，将特定领域的限产持续到年底，比如云南（黄磷、铝、工业硅等）、广西（电解铝）、新疆（电解铝）等。</p>\n<p>总体来看，4季度工业生产仍然会一定程度上受能耗双控政策的压制，但在边际上会较9月有所好转。综合考虑9月能耗双控对工业生产的拖累，以及工业增加值占GDP比重，<b>我们预计9月生产收紧对3季度经济增速的影响在0.1-0.15个百分点。</b></p>\n<p>展望4季度，考虑到执行阶段性政策的省份的工业体量，明显大于将限产政策持续到年底的省份；并且持续到年底的产业政策，主要是针对特定领域（比如电解铝等）。</p>\n<p>9月份生产「急刹车」，可能更多是为了突击完成3季度的能耗双控目标。</p>\n<p>中性情形下，我们假设目前受到能耗双控影响的工业生产中，有30%的比例在四季度仍然受到压制，那么4季度经济增速受到的拖累约在0.1-0.15个百分点左右。未来还需关注3季度晴雨表发布后能耗双控政策的变化。</p>\n<p>供给约束支撑上游工业品价格，PPI同比增速年内或在9%以上，但上游涨价对中下游盈利空间的挤压加剧，货币政策将保持稳中偏松态势。</p>\n<p>我们认为，伴随采暖季临近，煤价或仍将坚挺；各地钢铁限产的同时，地产、城投严监管也抑制了需求，钢价或继续5月以来的震荡态势；国际油价、铜价受疫情扰动外出和生产、供给逐步释放、Taper临近等因素影响，可能延续近月的高位震荡态势。</p>\n<p>我们预计，年内PPI同比或维持在9%以上，CPI同比逐步回升、11月后升至2%以上。在原材料价格大涨、生产受限、运价高企的情况下，中下游利润空间受到挤压。7月降准后流动性偏松，近期利率市场的变化，可能更多反映了政府发债加速等因素的扰动，货币政策稳中偏松的态势并未转变。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3d58a87ba00dcdd958e2bbeb59449f","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164942530","content_text":"影响当前限电限产政策的主要逻辑有两条：\n第一，部分省份上半年能耗双控未能达标，近期为了完成3季度目标而集中限产，对短期生产带来冲击。\n第二，一些省份因为电力供给不足，而不得不采取用电指标分解、错峰用电等政策。能耗双控目标对短期生产影响较大，主要集中在9月，可能拖累当月工业增加值增速下滑至4-4.5%，部分能耗双控政策对生产的压制，会延续到年底。\n而煤炭供给不足导致的电力缺口，从7月以来便已经压制生产，年内或难以消除。\n总体来看，能耗双控政策对3、4季度经济增速的影响，均在0.1-0.15个百分点左右。我们预计，PPI年内同比增速或在9%以上，上游涨价对中下游盈利空间的挤压加剧，货币政策将保持稳中偏松。\n8月中下旬以来，部分地区在「能耗双控」目标的约束下大幅限产，对短期工业生产形成影响。8月国家发改委发布《2021年上半年各地区能耗双控目标完成情况晴雨表》显示，全国19个省份为一级、二级预警。\n图表1：广东、江苏等19个省份能耗双控压力较大\n\n注：西藏自治区数据暂缺，不纳入预警范围，地区排序的依据为各地区能耗强度降低率。\n资料来源：国家发改委，各省政府网站，中金公司研究部\n随后各地相继出台严格的限电限产举措，包括江苏、广东、云南等省，对化工、钢铁、有色金属、非金属建材等行业进行限产。\n双控政策对经济的短期冲击主要集中体现在9月份的工业生产，我们从两个思路来考察能耗双控的影响：\n► 思路1：考察分行业的变化和投入产出视角下的影响。能耗双控主要针对「两高」项目，包括煤电、石化、化工、钢铁、有色金属冶炼、建材等6个行业类别。\n根据9月发电日耗煤量、钢铁周产量、水泥开工率等高频数据估算，能耗双控对相关行业生产的拖累约在3-5%。按照这6个产业的降幅来估算，9月工业生产受拖累约1.5%。\n假设这种供给约束向下传导，受影响较大的行业包括非金属矿物制品业、金属制品业、建筑业等。\n图表2：部分行业可能会面临供给约束带来的生产收缩\n\n资料来源：国家统计局，万得资讯，中金公司研究部\n► 思路2：参考秋冬季环保限产对工业生产的影响。2017年首次执行京津冀地区秋冬季环保限产，对相关省份工业增加值平均拖累约3%。\n长三角2018年也开始执行秋冬季环保限产，但政策相对温和，江浙两省工业增加值拖累约0.5%。\n我们以这两个案例为基准，假设红色预警省份采取更严格措施、工业拖累3%，黄色预警省份政策相对温和，工业拖累0.5%，其余省份不做大规模额外限产，则对工业生产总的拖累约为1.3%。\n图表3：2017年首次秋冬季限产，京津冀晋四省市工业生产平均降幅比全国大约3个百分点\n\n图表4：2018年首次秋冬季限产，江苏、浙江工业生产降幅比全国大约0.5个百分点\n\n资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部\n除了能耗双控的短期冲击，电力供给不足也导致了7月以来持续性的限电限产。\n在需求端，受出口、气温等因素支撑，我国用电需求居高不下。1-8月全社会用电量同比增长13.8%，比规模以上企业发电量增速高2.5个百分点，创下2003年以来增速差的最大值，反映了用电紧张的格局。\n在供给端，水力发电同比负增长，火力发电则受到煤炭生产监管、进口煤炭减少等约束，难以弥补电力供给缺口。未来电力短缺对工业生产和居民生活的影响，或持续体现。\n图表11：火电和水电产量累计同比\n\n资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部\n图表12：煤炭产量和进口数量累计同比\n\n资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部\n图表13：沿海八省电厂存煤可用天数\n\n资料来源：CCTD，中金公司研究部\n能耗双控政策的影响可能持续到年底，但4季度较9月会有边际改善。\n多数地方的能耗双控、限电限产政策截止时间并未明确，部分地方政策暂定截至9月底，比如江苏、浙江等地一些阶段性限产举措；也有些省份或城市的政策，将特定领域的限产持续到年底，比如云南（黄磷、铝、工业硅等）、广西（电解铝）、新疆（电解铝）等。\n总体来看，4季度工业生产仍然会一定程度上受能耗双控政策的压制，但在边际上会较9月有所好转。综合考虑9月能耗双控对工业生产的拖累，以及工业增加值占GDP比重，我们预计9月生产收紧对3季度经济增速的影响在0.1-0.15个百分点。\n展望4季度，考虑到执行阶段性政策的省份的工业体量，明显大于将限产政策持续到年底的省份；并且持续到年底的产业政策，主要是针对特定领域（比如电解铝等）。\n9月份生产「急刹车」，可能更多是为了突击完成3季度的能耗双控目标。\n中性情形下，我们假设目前受到能耗双控影响的工业生产中，有30%的比例在四季度仍然受到压制，那么4季度经济增速受到的拖累约在0.1-0.15个百分点左右。未来还需关注3季度晴雨表发布后能耗双控政策的变化。\n供给约束支撑上游工业品价格，PPI同比增速年内或在9%以上，但上游涨价对中下游盈利空间的挤压加剧，货币政策将保持稳中偏松态势。\n我们认为，伴随采暖季临近，煤价或仍将坚挺；各地钢铁限产的同时，地产、城投严监管也抑制了需求，钢价或继续5月以来的震荡态势；国际油价、铜价受疫情扰动外出和生产、供给逐步释放、Taper临近等因素影响，可能延续近月的高位震荡态势。\n我们预计，年内PPI同比或维持在9%以上，CPI同比逐步回升、11月后升至2%以上。在原材料价格大涨、生产受限、运价高企的情况下，中下游利润空间受到挤压。7月降准后流动性偏松，近期利率市场的变化，可能更多反映了政府发债加速等因素的扰动，货币政策稳中偏松的态势并未转变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":147687777,"gmtCreate":1626356394999,"gmtModify":1626356394999,"author":{"id":"3580501000678591","authorId":"3580501000678591","name":"亨亨亨亨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c663a87c06ca6b460b70a92065c4ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580501000678591","authorIdStr":"3580501000678591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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