魔力91的个人主页 - 老虎社区

魔力91

魔力91

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IP属地：黑龙江

20关注

1粉丝

3主题

0勋章

10-16

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 📉暴跌走起来

2021-06-28

$每日优鲜(MF)$对呀，绿鞋是干得的吧啊，每日破产退市吧

2022-04-25

$小米集团-W(01810)$这货又能创新低，那个什么军的脸是真长！

2021-11-18

$小米集团-W(01810)$啥玩意呢？

2022-04-26

$小米集团-W(01810)$我不割这个**不涨，大家谢谢我吧[开心]

2022-01-24

$小米集团-W(01810)$小米咋这么垃圾呢？

2021-08-16

美股动荡担忧就来投资中国吧。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

加不加息又能咋的呢，大惊小怪

抱歉，原内容已删除

10-31

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 往死里跌

10-14

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 崩盘，崩盘

2021-08-26

$小米集团-W(01810)$财务造假了吗？

2021-05-07

干不了啥，总能打搅乱。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-09-08

$小米集团-W(01810)$一帮**在操盘

2022-08-24

$小米集团-W(01810)$建议这帮货和老雷一起去回炉

2022-02-09

衰退算个啥，希望摔死他得了，同意的兄弟们顶起。

高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落

2022-02-08

$小米集团-W(01810)$便宜玩意没好货，这票就跟小米产品一个吊样，

2021-11-26

在特么回购跌没了

港交所：小米26日回购260万股股份，耗资4970万港元

2021-08-10

把苹果的份额抢过来一些。

雷军：小米下一个目标是用三年时间做到全球手机份额第一

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>废材，跟小米产品一个吊样","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$废材，跟小米产品一个吊样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613195227","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619241647,"gmtCreate":1649314732385,"gmtModify":1649314732385,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>就不能信这着这帮**","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>就不能信这着这帮**","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$就不能信这着这帮**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619241647","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631905973,"gmtCreate":1644414595944,"gmtModify":1644414595944,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"衰退算个啥，希望摔死他得了，同意的兄弟们顶起。","listText":"衰退算个啥，希望摔死他得了，同意的兄弟们顶起。","text":"衰退算个啥，希望摔死他得了，同意的兄弟们顶起。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631905973","repostId":"2210536528","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2210536528","pubTimestamp":1644371303,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2210536528?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-09 09:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210536528","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛的首席经济学家发表的一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，在薪资-通胀螺旋上升通道中，只有美联储大幅紧缩才能破局，然而如果美联储无法实现经济“软着陆”——在不影响经济前景的情况下抑制通胀，将会引发远超当前预测的经济放缓。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>虽然从去年7月以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。</p><p>换句话说，<b>如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退</b>。</p><p>周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为&#34;我们需要的放缓&#34;的说明中提示，相比华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及的美国1月非农就业意外新增46.7万人，平均每小时工资环比增0.7%才是问题的关键。</p><blockquote>在过去的2-3个季度里，工资年化率已经加速到6%；而在过去的3、6和12个月里，核心PCE通胀率约为5%。这提出了一个问题，我们是否已经处于薪资-通胀螺旋之中，需要通过美联储积极的加息和大幅收紧来破局。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37f48eca5f2ddd54d1b28ae39bd6d50\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>答案无疑是显而易见的，虽然高盛再次“打脸”自己上个月说明中所说的“几乎没有薪资-通胀螺旋上升的迹象”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d91c3a804e2e59a2b3a901ebbf065f1\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>最新民调显示，55%的受访者正尝试用跳槽威胁要求现有雇主加薪，高通胀是最“正当”的理由之一。市场认为，薪资-通胀螺旋一旦形成，不能排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点的可能性。</p><p>正像高盛在2021年月复一月将通胀视为“暂时的”之后转变，高盛在承认薪资-通胀螺旋是在上升通道中之后，表示：</p><blockquote>即使工资增长如我们所期望的从6%下降到5%，这将意味着单位劳动成本通胀至少为3%，假设生产力的增长不超过2%。如果以此速度继续持续下去，对于实现美联储2%的PCE通胀目标来说将是过高的。</blockquote><blockquote>这就提出了一个风险，即美联储官员希望看到经济产出和就业增长比目前预测的出现更大的放缓，速度将不超过长期趋势。</blockquote><p>换句话来解释高盛首席经济学家所说的“发达经济体薪资和通胀压力将会扩大，意味着增长需要放缓，货币政策需要在复苏早期阶段收紧”，其实就是美联储的超级紧缩政策或将引发经济衰退。</p><p>Hatzius解释了其核心市场观点，即：</p><blockquote>无风险收益率的增加，投资等级IG和高收益HY信贷利差的扩大，叠加到目前为止的疫情后复苏情况，市场将会出现较低的预期回报和较大的潜在缩量。</blockquote><p>然而，以上结果是基于美联储将以某种方式实现软着陆为前提的。问题是，美联储从未能够实现软着陆，每个紧缩周期之后都伴随以危机告终。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b638c0cc75bbe030f31ed76f96e82eb1\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而且让问题更加雪上加霜的是，这一次美联储不仅希望通过加息来提升曲线的短端，而且还希望通过积极缩表来迫使收益率曲线变陡，从而使长端抛售的数量超过短端。或将出现的收益率曲线倒挂会预示着经济衰退的开始。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ad7e31276ea37fe42c0993ef9cf45\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>虽然高盛的经济学家并没有直接说美国经济将面临崩溃，但是其潜台词似乎已经给了一些暗示。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 09:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>虽然从去年7月以来，高盛已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。换句话说，如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退。周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210536528","content_text":"虽然从去年7月以来，高盛已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。换句话说，如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退。周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，相比华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及的美国1月非农就业意外新增46.7万人，平均每小时工资环比增0.7%才是问题的关键。在过去的2-3个季度里，工资年化率已经加速到6%；而在过去的3、6和12个月里，核心PCE通胀率约为5%。这提出了一个问题，我们是否已经处于薪资-通胀螺旋之中，需要通过美联储积极的加息和大幅收紧来破局。答案无疑是显而易见的，虽然高盛再次“打脸”自己上个月说明中所说的“几乎没有薪资-通胀螺旋上升的迹象”。最新民调显示，55%的受访者正尝试用跳槽威胁要求现有雇主加薪，高通胀是最“正当”的理由之一。市场认为，薪资-通胀螺旋一旦形成，不能排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点的可能性。正像高盛在2021年月复一月将通胀视为“暂时的”之后转变，高盛在承认薪资-通胀螺旋是在上升通道中之后，表示：即使工资增长如我们所期望的从6%下降到5%，这将意味着单位劳动成本通胀至少为3%，假设生产力的增长不超过2%。如果以此速度继续持续下去，对于实现美联储2%的PCE通胀目标来说将是过高的。这就提出了一个风险，即美联储官员希望看到经济产出和就业增长比目前预测的出现更大的放缓，速度将不超过长期趋势。换句话来解释高盛首席经济学家所说的“发达经济体薪资和通胀压力将会扩大，意味着增长需要放缓，货币政策需要在复苏早期阶段收紧”，其实就是美联储的超级紧缩政策或将引发经济衰退。Hatzius解释了其核心市场观点，即：无风险收益率的增加，投资等级IG和高收益HY信贷利差的扩大，叠加到目前为止的疫情后复苏情况，市场将会出现较低的预期回报和较大的潜在缩量。然而，以上结果是基于美联储将以某种方式实现软着陆为前提的。问题是，美联储从未能够实现软着陆，每个紧缩周期之后都伴随以危机告终。而且让问题更加雪上加霜的是，这一次美联储不仅希望通过加息来提升曲线的短端，而且还希望通过积极缩表来迫使收益率曲线变陡，从而使长端抛售的数量超过短端。或将出现的收益率曲线倒挂会预示着经济衰退的开始。虽然高盛的经济学家并没有直接说美国经济将面临崩溃，但是其潜台词似乎已经给了一些暗示。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633722914,"gmtCreate":1644335076667,"gmtModify":1644335867235,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"到底要加多少次，没几把完了","listText":"到底要加多少次，没几把完了","text":"到底要加多少次，没几把完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633722914","repostId":"2209451307","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2209451307","pubTimestamp":1644311979,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2209451307?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-08 17:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银“惊人”预计：美联储今年加息七次","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209451307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。</p><p>上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，<b>过去12个月的增幅为5.7%，这是自2007年3月以来增速最快的一次</b>（疫情初期的两个月除外）。</p><p>人们越来越多地认为，美联储在政策方面落后于通胀增速，目前美国通胀率正以近40年来最快的速度增长。</p><p>周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>全球经济研究部主管Ethan Harris在与CNBC的电话会议中表示：</p><blockquote>如果我是美联储主席，我会更加担心推动工资上涨的因素不仅仅是例外情况，并在秋天早些时候提高利率。</blockquote><blockquote><b>当存在广泛的物价上涨，并开始影响到工资，通胀螺旋风险加大，政策措施就落后于通胀曲线，美联储需要开始行动。</b></blockquote><p>Harris对美联储发出了今年以来最激进的呼吁，美银最新报告指出，<b>2022年将有七次加息，每次加息25个基点，明年还会有四次加息。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d71f78fb385b6a8eb76748da269eed9\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对此，Harris指出，尽管目前市场观点认为这种情况的可能性只有18%，但他依然支持这个观点，<b>主要原因在于：</b>美国经济复苏不仅达到了美联储的目标，甚至还超过了停止线(the stop signs)。</p><p>几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升</p><p>Harris在电话会议中提及美联储2020年9月批准的货币政策新方法。美联储表示，在灵活的平均通胀目标下，为了实现充分就业，允许通胀率高于2%的目标。</p><p>但随着通胀率增长到7%左右，劳动力市场越来越紧张，美联储现在加速“追赶”，改变货币政策进而应对严峻的通胀形势。</p><p><b>Harris指出，几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b81b83224ba1b963bcd13331680628\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>受疫情影响最严重的休闲和酒店行业工资增幅最大，</b>在过去一年的上涨了13%。金融行业的工资上涨了4.8%，而零售行业的工资更是上涨了7.1%。</p><p>此前见闻文章提及，加薪“全面开花”，除了中低阶层工人提高了工资，华尔街金融机构也“你追我赶”地增加员工薪资，拜登上个月还发布了上调联邦雇员的最低工资至15美元的行政命令。</p><p>工资飙升是“大辞职潮”的一部分</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>将工资飙升这一趋势视为“大辞职潮”的一部分，“大辞职潮”是指2021年以来，美国离职人数陡增，离职率处于近20年来最高水平。根据美国劳工部数据，2021年全年美国劳动力更换或离职次数为4740万人次。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2ef87143df605f0b95c38ef19600a0\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs和David Mericle在一份报告中指出，“大辞职潮”包括两个截然不同但相互关联的趋势：<b>数百万工人离开了劳动力大军，还有数百万人为了更好、更高收入的就业机会而辞职。这些趋势已将工资涨幅推至一个越来越令人担忧的水平，即工资通胀螺旋上升。</b></p><p>高盛数据显示，今年美国工资增长将会放缓，但只是小幅放缓，到今年预计会达到5%左右。<b>值得一提的是，高盛预计，2022年将有四次加息。</b></p><p>高盛经济学家指出，劳动力成本的增长速度快于2%的通胀目标，这可能会使通胀继续走高，美联储将采取更激进的应对措施。</p><p>加息50个基点“合理”，但与鲍威尔“谦逊”态度不一致</p><p>市场一直在缓慢地加码美联储加息，预计今年将有五次加息，但仍有可能加息更多次，而且速度更快。尽管交易员普遍预计美联储将在3月份加息25个基点，但也不排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点<b>，目前加息50个基点的可能性已升至近30%。</b></p><p><b>Harris表示：</b></p><blockquote>加息50个基点将是&#34;一件合理的事情&#34;，但这与美联储主席鲍威尔在1月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上所支持的&#34;谦逊&#34;（humble）态度不一致。</blockquote><p>安联集团首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian周一在CNBC的Squawk Box节目中表示，美联储政策已经落后，希望他们能重拾通胀论调，控制工资增长。此前，El-Erian在专栏文章中发出警告，越拖延，政策收紧的风险就越大。美联储和欧央行非但不能确保经济软着陆，反而可能被迫采取过度的“追赶性”紧缩政策。</p><p>此外，Harris指出，<b>实际上，他不认为加息会破坏经济，只要美联储传达出准确的信息，即加息旨在控制通胀，而不是遏制经济增长。</b></p><p>Harris补充称，本轮加息周期可能类似于美联储在2005年中期的举措，当时美联储连续17次加息，目的是为失控的房地产市场降温。谈到预计到2023年将加息11次时，Harris表示：</p><blockquote>这并不是一个激进的预测，对于一个从零开始的央行来说，这只是一条阻力较小的道路。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美银“惊人”预计：美联储今年加息七次</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银“惊人”预计：美联储今年加息七次\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-08 17:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7%，这是自2007年3月以来增速最快的一次（疫情初期的两个月除外）。人们越来越多地认为，美联储在政策方面落后于通胀增速，目前美国通胀率正以近40年来最快的速度增长。周一，美国银行全球经济研究部主管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209451307","content_text":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7%，这是自2007年3月以来增速最快的一次（疫情初期的两个月除外）。人们越来越多地认为，美联储在政策方面落后于通胀增速，目前美国通胀率正以近40年来最快的速度增长。周一，美国银行全球经济研究部主管Ethan Harris在与CNBC的电话会议中表示：如果我是美联储主席，我会更加担心推动工资上涨的因素不仅仅是例外情况，并在秋天早些时候提高利率。当存在广泛的物价上涨，并开始影响到工资，通胀螺旋风险加大，政策措施就落后于通胀曲线，美联储需要开始行动。Harris对美联储发出了今年以来最激进的呼吁，美银最新报告指出，2022年将有七次加息，每次加息25个基点，明年还会有四次加息。对此，Harris指出，尽管目前市场观点认为这种情况的可能性只有18%，但他依然支持这个观点，主要原因在于：美国经济复苏不仅达到了美联储的目标，甚至还超过了停止线(the stop 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>一帮**在操盘","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>一帮**在操盘","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$一帮**在操盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669761023","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":660017823,"gmtCreate":1661322385266,"gmtModify":1661322385266,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>建议这帮货和老雷一起去回炉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>建议这帮货和老雷一起去回炉","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$建议这帮货和老雷一起去回炉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660017823","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631905973,"gmtCreate":1644414595944,"gmtModify":1644414595944,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"衰退算个啥，希望摔死他得了，同意的兄弟们顶起。","listText":"衰退算个啥，希望摔死他得了，同意的兄弟们顶起。","text":"衰退算个啥，希望摔死他得了，同意的兄弟们顶起。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631905973","repostId":"2210536528","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2210536528","pubTimestamp":1644371303,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2210536528?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-09 09:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210536528","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛的首席经济学家发表的一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，在薪资-通胀螺旋上升通道中，只有美联储大幅紧缩才能破局，然而如果美联储无法实现经济“软着陆”——在不影响经济前景的情况下抑制通胀，将会引发远超当前预测的经济放缓。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>虽然从去年7月以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。</p><p>换句话说，<b>如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退</b>。</p><p>周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为&#34;我们需要的放缓&#34;的说明中提示，相比华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及的美国1月非农就业意外新增46.7万人，平均每小时工资环比增0.7%才是问题的关键。</p><blockquote>在过去的2-3个季度里，工资年化率已经加速到6%；而在过去的3、6和12个月里，核心PCE通胀率约为5%。这提出了一个问题，我们是否已经处于薪资-通胀螺旋之中，需要通过美联储积极的加息和大幅收紧来破局。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37f48eca5f2ddd54d1b28ae39bd6d50\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>答案无疑是显而易见的，虽然高盛再次“打脸”自己上个月说明中所说的“几乎没有薪资-通胀螺旋上升的迹象”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d91c3a804e2e59a2b3a901ebbf065f1\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>最新民调显示，55%的受访者正尝试用跳槽威胁要求现有雇主加薪，高通胀是最“正当”的理由之一。市场认为，薪资-通胀螺旋一旦形成，不能排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点的可能性。</p><p>正像高盛在2021年月复一月将通胀视为“暂时的”之后转变，高盛在承认薪资-通胀螺旋是在上升通道中之后，表示：</p><blockquote>即使工资增长如我们所期望的从6%下降到5%，这将意味着单位劳动成本通胀至少为3%，假设生产力的增长不超过2%。如果以此速度继续持续下去，对于实现美联储2%的PCE通胀目标来说将是过高的。</blockquote><blockquote>这就提出了一个风险，即美联储官员希望看到经济产出和就业增长比目前预测的出现更大的放缓，速度将不超过长期趋势。</blockquote><p>换句话来解释高盛首席经济学家所说的“发达经济体薪资和通胀压力将会扩大，意味着增长需要放缓，货币政策需要在复苏早期阶段收紧”，其实就是美联储的超级紧缩政策或将引发经济衰退。</p><p>Hatzius解释了其核心市场观点，即：</p><blockquote>无风险收益率的增加，投资等级IG和高收益HY信贷利差的扩大，叠加到目前为止的疫情后复苏情况，市场将会出现较低的预期回报和较大的潜在缩量。</blockquote><p>然而，以上结果是基于美联储将以某种方式实现软着陆为前提的。问题是，美联储从未能够实现软着陆，每个紧缩周期之后都伴随以危机告终。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b638c0cc75bbe030f31ed76f96e82eb1\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而且让问题更加雪上加霜的是，这一次美联储不仅希望通过加息来提升曲线的短端，而且还希望通过积极缩表来迫使收益率曲线变陡，从而使长端抛售的数量超过短端。或将出现的收益率曲线倒挂会预示着经济衰退的开始。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ad7e31276ea37fe42c0993ef9cf45\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>虽然高盛的经济学家并没有直接说美国经济将面临崩溃，但是其潜台词似乎已经给了一些暗示。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 09:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>虽然从去年7月以来，高盛已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。换句话说，如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退。周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210536528","content_text":"虽然从去年7月以来，高盛已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。换句话说，如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退。周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，相比华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及的美国1月非农就业意外新增46.7万人，平均每小时工资环比增0.7%才是问题的关键。在过去的2-3个季度里，工资年化率已经加速到6%；而在过去的3、6和12个月里，核心PCE通胀率约为5%。这提出了一个问题，我们是否已经处于薪资-通胀螺旋之中，需要通过美联储积极的加息和大幅收紧来破局。答案无疑是显而易见的，虽然高盛再次“打脸”自己上个月说明中所说的“几乎没有薪资-通胀螺旋上升的迹象”。最新民调显示，55%的受访者正尝试用跳槽威胁要求现有雇主加薪，高通胀是最“正当”的理由之一。市场认为，薪资-通胀螺旋一旦形成，不能排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点的可能性。正像高盛在2021年月复一月将通胀视为“暂时的”之后转变，高盛在承认薪资-通胀螺旋是在上升通道中之后，表示：即使工资增长如我们所期望的从6%下降到5%，这将意味着单位劳动成本通胀至少为3%，假设生产力的增长不超过2%。如果以此速度继续持续下去，对于实现美联储2%的PCE通胀目标来说将是过高的。这就提出了一个风险，即美联储官员希望看到经济产出和就业增长比目前预测的出现更大的放缓，速度将不超过长期趋势。换句话来解释高盛首席经济学家所说的“发达经济体薪资和通胀压力将会扩大，意味着增长需要放缓，货币政策需要在复苏早期阶段收紧”，其实就是美联储的超级紧缩政策或将引发经济衰退。Hatzius解释了其核心市场观点，即：无风险收益率的增加，投资等级IG和高收益HY信贷利差的扩大，叠加到目前为止的疫情后复苏情况，市场将会出现较低的预期回报和较大的潜在缩量。然而，以上结果是基于美联储将以某种方式实现软着陆为前提的。问题是，美联储从未能够实现软着陆，每个紧缩周期之后都伴随以危机告终。而且让问题更加雪上加霜的是，这一次美联储不仅希望通过加息来提升曲线的短端，而且还希望通过积极缩表来迫使收益率曲线变陡，从而使长端抛售的数量超过短端。或将出现的收益率曲线倒挂会预示着经济衰退的开始。虽然高盛的经济学家并没有直接说美国经济将面临崩溃，但是其潜台词似乎已经给了一些暗示。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633726372,"gmtCreate":1644334877210,"gmtModify":1644335197745,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>便宜玩意没好货，这票就跟小米产品一个吊样，","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$便宜玩意没好货，这票就跟小米产品一个吊样，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633726372","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877293421,"gmtCreate":1637932736880,"gmtModify":1637933293105,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在特么回购跌没了","listText":"在特么回购跌没了","text":"在特么回购跌没了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877293421","repostId":"1143854835","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143854835","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637931091,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143854835?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 20:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港交所：小米26日回购260万股股份，耗资4970万港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143854835","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月26日，据港交所文件：小米集团-W在11月26日以19.06-19.12港元的价格回购了260万股股份，耗资4970万港元。","content":"<p>11月26日，据港交所文件：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>在11月26日以19.06-19.12港元的价格回购了260万股股份，耗资4970万港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150256124a212fcf34d1be6ffef53b9a\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"85\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港交所：小米26日回购260万股股份，耗资4970万港元</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>在11月26日以19.06-19.12港元的价格回购了260万股股份，耗资4970万港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150256124a212fcf34d1be6ffef53b9a\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"85\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"BK1523":"武汉本地概念股","BK1502":"双十一","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1506":"5G概念","01810":"小米集团-W","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143854835","content_text":"11月26日，据港交所文件：小米集团-W在11月26日以19.06-19.12港元的价格回购了260万股股份，耗资4970万港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":896487144,"gmtCreate":1628601687388,"gmtModify":1628601687388,"author":{"id":"3580427137085014","authorId":"3580427137085014","name":"魔力91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce87791d8e0dc520b57891c5096e8f9d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580427137085014","authorIdStr":"3580427137085014"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"把苹果的份额抢过来一些。","listText":"把苹果的份额抢过来一些。","text":"把苹果的份额抢过来一些。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896487144","repostId":"1193174328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193174328","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628598672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193174328?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 20:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"雷军：小米下一个目标是用三年时间做到全球手机份额第一","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193174328","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"雷军在2021年度演讲暨小米秋季新品发布会上表示，小米MIX 4正式发布。同时，雷军在发布会上透露，小米下一个目标是用三年时间做到全球手机份额第一。\n\n小米MIX4定价4999元起，今晚开启预定，8月","content":"<blockquote>\n 雷军在2021年度演讲暨小米秋季新品发布会上表示，小米MIX 4正式发布。同时，雷军在发布会上透露，小米下一个目标是用三年时间做到全球手机份额第一。\n</blockquote>\n<p>小米MIX4定价4999元起，今晚开启预定，8月16日全渠道首发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d6dc953a29ebc1e002f57fd2a7dedc4\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小米公司：感谢世界各地有千千万万的米粉，十年来一直在默默支持我们、信任我们。正因为这些信任，才让我们战胜了所有困难，走到了今天的世界500强，走到了今天的全球第二。正因为这些信任，让我们有勇气大声说出下一个目标：三年时间，拿下全球第一！</p>\n<p><b>雷军回忆七年前曾被苹果高管嘲讽</b></p>\n<p>雷军开场提到了七年前自己最难忘的一幕，2014年首届世界互联网大会上，当时小米中国第一世界第三。主持人问小米的长期战略是什么样的，雷军脱口而出说五到十年小米要变成全球第一。</p>\n<p>当时的全球第一是苹果，现场的苹果高级副总裁回应说，这说起来很简单，但实现很难。</p>\n<p>这句话一说，现场哄堂大笑。而雷军接着引用马云的话回应说，万一实现了呢。</p>\n<p>雷军分享了小米近期的好消息，2021年第二季度，小米全球手机销量超过苹果，首次位居全球第二；同时小米销量在欧洲首次登顶，超过三星和苹果。</p>\n<p>他表示，小米仍需努力，当前任务的是要站稳全球第二。</p>\n<p><b>雷军谈小米高端之路：红米手机的成功 被外界误解只做中低端</b></p>\n<p>雷军表示，小米手机第一代，就是从高端入手的。后来推出面向大众市场的红米手机，大获成功。</p>\n<p>但这个成功也极大稀释了小米品牌，被外界误解小米只做中低端。</p>\n<p>后来小米重启高端，推出小米10。虽然遭遇疫情，但还是坚持举行线上发布会推出。</p>\n<p>小米高端之路也首战告捷。小米10系列原计划卖200万台，截止今天卖了577万台。</p>\n<p>在小米11系列上，当时有员工提出，把相机传感器用在手机上，这样就可以拿到全球影像技术的第一名。小米内部争论很大，这样会不会把手机做得像相机一样厚？</p>\n<p>后来小米内部决定为发烧友做一款产品，命名Ultra。定制了GN2传感器，一英寸的大底接近相机，拍照效果也媲美黑卡相机。但凸起也像相机一样，最后找到了解决方案，在相机模块上加一块小屏幕，就好多了。最终小米 11 Ultra的拍照获得了DXOMark总分第一名。</p>\n<p>“后来又掉到坑里了，有些细节没有达到用户预期，被骂惨了。”雷军说，做高端旗舰，还是要打磨细节。</p>\n<p>“小米高端之路，刚刚开始。相信米粉，依靠米粉，高端之路一定会成功。”他说。</p>\n<p><b>回忆小米2018年上市破发</b></p>\n<p>雷军回忆起2018年上市的场景，当时投行给出17-22港元的股价，小米选择了最低价。但现实让自己有点失望，当天开盘破发了，这意味着所有IPO的投资者亏了。</p>\n<p>“我们心里特别难受，记者堵在门口，我们几个谁也不愿意面对这个局面，和林斌躲到了港交所的杂物间。”</p>\n<p>在当晚的内部庆功宴上，雷军也觉得很憋屈，当晚喝了很多酒。现场提出让投资者至少赚一倍，“我们得好好干，不能让别人亏钱。”</p>\n<p>雷军还特地买了一条破洞牛仔裤，用这个仪式记住破发的这一天。小米虽然上市，但革命尚未成功。</p>\n<p>但后来小米的股价一度跌到8.28港元，比IPO价已经腰斩了。那段时间雷军特别不愿意见投资者，有一个投资者执意要见，当面毫不客气的说，你们怎么让我赔了这么多的钱，我真的不知道你们怎么干的。“对小米的产品、管理等方面把我像小学生一样训了一个多小时。后来我一个人在会议室待了很久，特别绝望。”</p>\n<p>“我们如此努力工作，收入和市场份额一直在增长，为什么资本市场不认可小米？实在想不通。”雷军说。</p>\n<p>在董事会的支持下，小米当时买了大量的小米股票抄到了底。后来小米股票终于回到了17港元，自己从此可以抬头挺胸，重新做人了；接着股价一路高歌，今年1月达到了34港元。当年吹过的牛，终于兑现了。</p>\n<p>“破发带来的心理阴影，终于烟消云散了。那些股票软件对我也没什么用了，统统扔掉。”</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n雷军：小米下一个目标是用三年时间做到全球手机份额第一\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-10 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 雷军在2021年度演讲暨小米秋季新品发布会上表示，小米MIX 4正式发布。同时，雷军在发布会上透露，小米下一个目标是用三年时间做到全球手机份额第一。\n</blockquote>\n<p>小米MIX4定价4999元起，今晚开启预定，8月16日全渠道首发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d6dc953a29ebc1e002f57fd2a7dedc4\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小米公司：感谢世界各地有千千万万的米粉，十年来一直在默默支持我们、信任我们。正因为这些信任，才让我们战胜了所有困难，走到了今天的世界500强，走到了今天的全球第二。正因为这些信任，让我们有勇气大声说出下一个目标：三年时间，拿下全球第一！</p>\n<p><b>雷军回忆七年前曾被苹果高管嘲讽</b></p>\n<p>雷军开场提到了七年前自己最难忘的一幕，2014年首届世界互联网大会上，当时小米中国第一世界第三。主持人问小米的长期战略是什么样的，雷军脱口而出说五到十年小米要变成全球第一。</p>\n<p>当时的全球第一是苹果，现场的苹果高级副总裁回应说，这说起来很简单，但实现很难。</p>\n<p>这句话一说，现场哄堂大笑。而雷军接着引用马云的话回应说，万一实现了呢。</p>\n<p>雷军分享了小米近期的好消息，2021年第二季度，小米全球手机销量超过苹果，首次位居全球第二；同时小米销量在欧洲首次登顶，超过三星和苹果。</p>\n<p>他表示，小米仍需努力，当前任务的是要站稳全球第二。</p>\n<p><b>雷军谈小米高端之路：红米手机的成功 被外界误解只做中低端</b></p>\n<p>雷军表示，小米手机第一代，就是从高端入手的。后来推出面向大众市场的红米手机，大获成功。</p>\n<p>但这个成功也极大稀释了小米品牌，被外界误解小米只做中低端。</p>\n<p>后来小米重启高端，推出小米10。虽然遭遇疫情，但还是坚持举行线上发布会推出。</p>\n<p>小米高端之路也首战告捷。小米10系列原计划卖200万台，截止今天卖了577万台。</p>\n<p>在小米11系列上，当时有员工提出，把相机传感器用在手机上，这样就可以拿到全球影像技术的第一名。小米内部争论很大，这样会不会把手机做得像相机一样厚？</p>\n<p>后来小米内部决定为发烧友做一款产品，命名Ultra。定制了GN2传感器，一英寸的大底接近相机，拍照效果也媲美黑卡相机。但凸起也像相机一样，最后找到了解决方案，在相机模块上加一块小屏幕，就好多了。最终小米 11 Ultra的拍照获得了DXOMark总分第一名。</p>\n<p>“后来又掉到坑里了，有些细节没有达到用户预期，被骂惨了。”雷军说，做高端旗舰，还是要打磨细节。</p>\n<p>“小米高端之路，刚刚开始。相信米粉，依靠米粉，高端之路一定会成功。”他说。</p>\n<p><b>回忆小米2018年上市破发</b></p>\n<p>雷军回忆起2018年上市的场景，当时投行给出17-22港元的股价，小米选择了最低价。但现实让自己有点失望，当天开盘破发了，这意味着所有IPO的投资者亏了。</p>\n<p>“我们心里特别难受，记者堵在门口，我们几个谁也不愿意面对这个局面，和林斌躲到了港交所的杂物间。”</p>\n<p>在当晚的内部庆功宴上，雷军也觉得很憋屈，当晚喝了很多酒。现场提出让投资者至少赚一倍，“我们得好好干，不能让别人亏钱。”</p>\n<p>雷军还特地买了一条破洞牛仔裤，用这个仪式记住破发的这一天。小米虽然上市，但革命尚未成功。</p>\n<p>但后来小米的股价一度跌到8.28港元，比IPO价已经腰斩了。那段时间雷军特别不愿意见投资者，有一个投资者执意要见，当面毫不客气的说，你们怎么让我赔了这么多的钱，我真的不知道你们怎么干的。“对小米的产品、管理等方面把我像小学生一样训了一个多小时。后来我一个人在会议室待了很久，特别绝望。”</p>\n<p>“我们如此努力工作，收入和市场份额一直在增长，为什么资本市场不认可小米？实在想不通。”雷军说。</p>\n<p>在董事会的支持下，小米当时买了大量的小米股票抄到了底。后来小米股票终于回到了17港元，自己从此可以抬头挺胸，重新做人了；接着股价一路高歌，今年1月达到了34港元。当年吹过的牛，终于兑现了。</p>\n<p>“破发带来的心理阴影，终于烟消云散了。那些股票软件对我也没什么用了，统统扔掉。”</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad46168331346d06a46ff81f37ec96a2","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193174328","content_text":"雷军在2021年度演讲暨小米秋季新品发布会上表示，小米MIX 4正式发布。同时，雷军在发布会上透露，小米下一个目标是用三年时间做到全球手机份额第一。\n\n小米MIX4定价4999元起，今晚开启预定，8月16日全渠道首发。\n\n小米公司：感谢世界各地有千千万万的米粉，十年来一直在默默支持我们、信任我们。正因为这些信任，才让我们战胜了所有困难，走到了今天的世界500强，走到了今天的全球第二。正因为这些信任，让我们有勇气大声说出下一个目标：三年时间，拿下全球第一！\n雷军回忆七年前曾被苹果高管嘲讽\n雷军开场提到了七年前自己最难忘的一幕，2014年首届世界互联网大会上，当时小米中国第一世界第三。主持人问小米的长期战略是什么样的，雷军脱口而出说五到十年小米要变成全球第一。\n当时的全球第一是苹果，现场的苹果高级副总裁回应说，这说起来很简单，但实现很难。\n这句话一说，现场哄堂大笑。而雷军接着引用马云的话回应说，万一实现了呢。\n雷军分享了小米近期的好消息，2021年第二季度，小米全球手机销量超过苹果，首次位居全球第二；同时小米销量在欧洲首次登顶，超过三星和苹果。\n他表示，小米仍需努力，当前任务的是要站稳全球第二。\n雷军谈小米高端之路：红米手机的成功 被外界误解只做中低端\n雷军表示，小米手机第一代，就是从高端入手的。后来推出面向大众市场的红米手机，大获成功。\n但这个成功也极大稀释了小米品牌，被外界误解小米只做中低端。\n后来小米重启高端，推出小米10。虽然遭遇疫情，但还是坚持举行线上发布会推出。\n小米高端之路也首战告捷。小米10系列原计划卖200万台，截止今天卖了577万台。\n在小米11系列上，当时有员工提出，把相机传感器用在手机上，这样就可以拿到全球影像技术的第一名。小米内部争论很大，这样会不会把手机做得像相机一样厚？\n后来小米内部决定为发烧友做一款产品，命名Ultra。定制了GN2传感器，一英寸的大底接近相机，拍照效果也媲美黑卡相机。但凸起也像相机一样，最后找到了解决方案，在相机模块上加一块小屏幕，就好多了。最终小米 11 Ultra的拍照获得了DXOMark总分第一名。\n“后来又掉到坑里了，有些细节没有达到用户预期，被骂惨了。”雷军说，做高端旗舰，还是要打磨细节。\n“小米高端之路，刚刚开始。相信米粉，依靠米粉，高端之路一定会成功。”他说。\n回忆小米2018年上市破发\n雷军回忆起2018年上市的场景，当时投行给出17-22港元的股价，小米选择了最低价。但现实让自己有点失望，当天开盘破发了，这意味着所有IPO的投资者亏了。\n“我们心里特别难受，记者堵在门口，我们几个谁也不愿意面对这个局面，和林斌躲到了港交所的杂物间。”\n在当晚的内部庆功宴上，雷军也觉得很憋屈，当晚喝了很多酒。现场提出让投资者至少赚一倍，“我们得好好干，不能让别人亏钱。”\n雷军还特地买了一条破洞牛仔裤，用这个仪式记住破发的这一天。小米虽然上市，但革命尚未成功。\n但后来小米的股价一度跌到8.28港元，比IPO价已经腰斩了。那段时间雷军特别不愿意见投资者，有一个投资者执意要见，当面毫不客气的说，你们怎么让我赔了这么多的钱，我真的不知道你们怎么干的。“对小米的产品、管理等方面把我像小学生一样训了一个多小时。后来我一个人在会议室待了很久，特别绝望。”\n“我们如此努力工作，收入和市场份额一直在增长，为什么资本市场不认可小米？实在想不通。”雷军说。\n在董事会的支持下，小米当时买了大量的小米股票抄到了底。后来小米股票终于回到了17港元，自己从此可以抬头挺胸，重新做人了；接着股价一路高歌，今年1月达到了34港元。当年吹过的牛，终于兑现了。\n“破发带来的心理阴影，终于烟消云散了。那些股票软件对我也没什么用了，统统扔掉。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}