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Roykhor77

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2021-11-20

Lolz

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2021-12-14

Nice

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2021-11-08

Nice

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2021-11-29

Nice

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2021-10-01

Drama

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2021-09-22

Nice. Can buy the dip

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2021-08-31

Nice

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2021-07-14

Palantir for good future growth

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2021-12-04

Nice

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2021-11-06

Nice

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2021-12-11

Nice

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2021-12-07

Nice

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2021-12-02

Nice

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2021-11-05

Nice

S&P 500, Nasdaq extend record streaks, with boost from chip, growth shares<blockquote>在芯片和成长股的推动下，标普500和纳斯达克延续了创纪录的连胜纪录</blockquote>

2021-10-22

Nice

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2021-08-10

$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$Hahaha 😅

2021-12-05

Nice

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2021-11-21

Nice

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2021-11-08

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up 🆙

2021-10-24

Nice

Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股票来说是不祥之兆。</blockquote>

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07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116106959","media":"Reuters","summary":" - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街周五收低，受大型科技股拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并更快消化美联储结束大流行时期刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示在2022年底前加息三次0.25个百分点以应对飙升的通胀后，美国三大主要股指本周均收跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌2.1%，Alphabet下跌1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 07:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街周五收低，受大型科技股拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并更快消化美联储结束大流行时期刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示在2022年底前加息三次0.25个百分点以应对飙升的通胀后，美国三大主要股指本周均收跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌2.1%，Alphabet下跌1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116106959","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.\nAll three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.\nNvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nThe S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.\nAll of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.\nAdding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.\nTraders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.\n\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"\nHeavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.\nIn Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.\nOn a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.\nWith options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.\nIn Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.\nFedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699660415,"gmtCreate":1639792844479,"gmtModify":1639792955245,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699660415","repostId":"1116106959","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116106959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639785552,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116106959?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116106959","media":"Reuters","summary":" - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街周五收低，受大型科技股拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并更快消化美联储结束大流行时期刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示在2022年底前加息三次0.25个百分点以应对飙升的通胀后，美国三大主要股指本周均收跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌2.1%，Alphabet下跌1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 07:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街周五收低，受大型科技股拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并更快消化美联储结束大流行时期刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示在2022年底前加息三次0.25个百分点以应对飙升的通胀后，美国三大主要股指本周均收跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌2.1%，Alphabet下跌1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116106959","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.\nAll three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.\nNvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nThe S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.\nAll of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.\nAdding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.\nTraders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.\n\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"\nHeavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.\nIn Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.\nOn a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.\nWith options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.\nIn Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.\nFedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690778965,"gmtCreate":1639714642978,"gmtModify":1639714643823,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690778965","repostId":"1129979905","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690901477,"gmtCreate":1639618392590,"gmtModify":1639618393435,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690901477","repostId":"1115910347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115910347","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639615452,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115910347?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?<blockquote>美联储的决定对你的钱包、你的信用卡账单意味着什么——抵押贷款利率会走多远？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115910347","media":"market watch","summary":"All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on","content":"<p> All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on what the central bank will do to keep the economy rebounding from the pandemic while countering the hot inflation that has consumers’ wallets sizzling.</p><p><blockquote>所有的目光都集中在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔身上，周三市场消化了有关美联储将采取哪些措施来保持经济从疫情中反弹，同时应对让消费者钱包火热的通胀的消息。</blockquote></p><p> Market observers were betting the Fed will conclude its bond buying — a move to help the economy in the pandemic’s earlier phases — quicker than expected and chart a course for more interest rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>市场观察人士押注美联储将比预期更快地结束债券购买——这是在疫情早期阶段帮助经济的举措，并制定进一步加息的路线。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed said Wednesday afternoon it would reduce its bond purchases by $30 billion a month so it could end the program in March, instead of June. The Fed penciled in three rate hikes in 2022, instead of one hike.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三下午表示，将每月减少300亿美元的债券购买，以便在3月份而不是6月份结束该计划。美联储预计2022年加息三次，而不是一次。</blockquote></p><p> Powell talked about the decision at a Wednesday afternoon press conference, saying the economy was strong enough now to handle the potential steps.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在周三下午的新闻发布会上谈到了这一决定，称经济现在足够强劲，可以应对潜在的措施。</blockquote></p><p> “We understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We, at the Fed, will do everything we can to complete the recovery in employment and achieve our price stability goal,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“我们明白，我们的行动影响着全国各地的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了服务于我们的公共使命。我们美联储将尽一切努力完成就业复苏，实现我们的物价稳定目标。”</blockquote></p><p> New projections from Fed officials foresee the closely-watched federal funds rate climbing 0.9% by the end of next year, to 1.6% by the end of 2023 and 2.1% by the end of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员的新预测预计，备受关注的联邦基金利率到明年年底将攀升0.9%，到2023年底升至1.6%，到2024年底升至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, some experts say consumers can do their own preparation for the Fed decision: Try to pay off their own credit-card bills as fast as possible now in order to avoid the extra interest rate costs waiting in future.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些专家表示，消费者可以为美联储的决定做好自己的准备：现在就尝试尽快还清自己的信用卡账单，以避免未来等待的额外利率成本。</blockquote></p><p> This is because annual percentage rates (APR) on credit cards hinge closely on the rates and targets set by the Fed, experts told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>专家告诉MarketWatch，这是因为信用卡的年利率(APR)与美联储设定的利率和目标密切相关。</blockquote></p><p> Credit-card issuers generally start their calculations on APR by looking at the U.S. prime rate, which is the rate that banks would extend to preferred customers.</p><p><blockquote>信用卡发行机构通常通过查看美国最优惠利率（银行向优先客户提供的利率）开始计算年利率。</blockquote></p><p> When banks determine the prime rate, they are looking at factors including the target level of the federal funds rate. (That’s the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve committee determining what banks charge each other for short-term, overnight loans.)</p><p><blockquote>当银行确定最优惠利率时，他们会考虑包括联邦基金利率目标水平在内的因素。（这是美联储委员会设定的利率，决定了银行对短期隔夜贷款的相互收费。）</blockquote></p><p> Layer on extra lending costs, like the so-called “credit risk” of a potential customer, and that’s essentially the ingredients of a credit card’s APR, said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, which provides insurance products and wealth management services to credit unions.</p><p><blockquote>提供保险产品和财富管理服务的CUNA Mutual Group首席经济学家史蒂夫·里克(Steve Rick)表示，再加上额外的贷款成本，例如潜在客户的所谓“信用风险”，这本质上是信用卡年利率的组成部分。信用合作社。</blockquote></p><p> So when Fed rate hikes zoom into view and then happen, consumers quickly can have their own future rate hikes to absorb. That’s worth knowing during a bustling holiday season amid rising costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当美联储加息进入视野并发生时，消费者很快就可以吸收自己未来的加息。在成本不断上涨的繁忙假期期间，这一点值得了解。</blockquote></p><p> “The best financial move they can make is pay off that credit-card balance,” Rick said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们能采取的最好的财务举措就是还清信用卡余额，”里克说。</blockquote></p><p> If banks “see rate increases on the horizon and they anticipate changes like a taper, you may end seeing rates increase for different types of loans,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.</p><p><blockquote>LendingTree首席信贷分析师马特·舒尔茨(Matt Schulz)表示，如果银行“看到利率即将上升，并预计会出现缩减等变化，那么你可能最终会看到不同类型贷款的利率上升”。</blockquote></p><p> “Credit cards are among the most influenced by the Fed because so many credit card interest rates are based on the prime rate,” he said. “If you have credit-card debt now, it would probably be a good idea to assume that your rates are going to go up in the not-too-distant future. If you can put a little more to credit card debt to knock it down, the better off you are.”</p><p><blockquote>“信用卡是受美联储影响最大的信用卡之一，因为许多信用卡利率都是基于最优惠利率，”他说。“如果你现在有信用卡债务，那么假设你的利率在不久的将来会上升可能是个好主意。如果你能在信用卡债务上多投入一点来减少它，你的情况就越好。”</blockquote></p><p> Mortgage rates are also influenced by the Fed’s actions, noted Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Mortgages rates could rise from about 3% now to 3.7% by the end of 2022, according to a consensus of forecasts,” he said, adding that rates on loans, including credits cards “will increase more or less in lockstep with federal fund rate increases.”</p><p><blockquote>海军联邦信用合作社企业经济学家罗伯特·弗里克指出，抵押贷款利率也受到美联储行动的影响。他表示：“根据普遍预测，到2022年底，抵押贷款利率可能会从现在的约3%升至3.7%。”他补充说，包括信用卡在内的贷款利率“将或多或少与联邦基金利率同步上升”利率上升。”</blockquote></p><p> The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.1% for the week ending Dec. 9.</p><p><blockquote>截至12月9日当周，30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The rates on savings accounts and CDs will also increase, Frick said — “and if the Fed is successful in driving inflation down, savers could see the interest they earn on accounts finally catch up with inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>弗里克表示，储蓄账户和存款证的利率也将上升——“如果美联储成功压低通胀，储户可能会看到他们从账户中赚取的利息最终赶上通胀。”</blockquote></p><p> But credit-card users could see the rates potentially rise quickly after a rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>但信用卡用户可能会看到加息后利率可能会迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p> Following even a quarter percentage point increase in the fed funds rate, it historically takes credit-card companies one or two months to bring on higher APRs, Schulz said. That’s one or two billing cycles, but, Schulz added, “They could do it the next day.”</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨表示，即使联邦基金利率上调四分之一个百分点，信用卡公司从历史上看也需要一两个月的时间才能带来更高的年利率。这是一两个计费周期，但是，舒尔茨补充说，“他们可以在第二天完成。”</blockquote></p><p> The average APR on all new card offers was 19.55% this month, up from 19.49% in November, according to LendingTree. The maximum APR was 23.21% and the minimum was 15.89%, according to the online platform where people can shop around on credit card offers, car loans and mortgages.</p><p><blockquote>根据LendingTree的数据，本月所有新卡优惠的平均年利率为19.55%，高于11月份的19.49%。根据人们可以货比三家购买信用卡、汽车贷款和抵押贷款的在线平台，最高年利率为23.21%，最低年利率为15.89%。</blockquote></p><p> Suppose a person has a $5,000 balance on their credit card and an APR between 19% and 20%, said Schulz. A single percentage point increase would tack on approximately $70 to $80 to completely pay the owed amount, plus interest, he said.</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨说，假设一个人的信用卡余额为5,000美元，年利率在19%至20%之间。他说，增加一个百分点将增加大约70至80美元，以完全支付所欠金额和利息。</blockquote></p><p> That might not sound like a lot to some people, Schulz said. “When you are living paycheck to paycheck, trying to knock that debt really does matter.”</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨说，这对某些人来说可能听起来不多。“当你靠薪水生活时，努力还清债务确实很重要。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Smaller added costs matter even for financially secure households watching rising prices burn into their disposable income. And the timing on the Fed decision matters too because the closely-watched decision comes during the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>即使对于经济上有保障的家庭来说，较小的额外成本也很重要，因为他们眼睁睁地看着物价上涨耗尽了他们的可支配收入。美联储做出决定的时机也很重要，因为备受关注的决定是在假期期间做出的。</blockquote></p><p> Typically, consumers incur “modest” increases in their credit card balances during the second and third quarters, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. Then, balances balloon during the holiday season in the fourth quarter and people pay off the balances in the first quarter, researchers said. Then the cycle repeats itself.</p><p><blockquote>根据纽约联邦储备银行的数据，通常情况下，消费者的信用卡余额在第二和第三季度会“适度”增加。研究人员表示，然后，余额在第四季度假期期间激增，人们在第一季度还清余额。然后循环重复。</blockquote></p><p> On this go-round, there could be higher credit card costs waiting for people in 2022 when they are paying off their 2021 holiday spending spree and traveling to make up lost time with friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>在这一轮中，2022年，当人们还清2021年的假期消费热潮并旅行以弥补与朋友和家人失去的时间时，信用卡费用可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Holiday shopping could break records this year and reach $859 billion sales, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国零售联合会的数据，今年假日购物可能会打破记录，销售额达到8590亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Americans held roughly $800 billion in credit card debt during the third quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. That’s a $17 billion increase from the second quarter, but the balance is still $123 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联邦储备银行表示，第三季度美国人持有约8000亿美元的信用卡债务。这比第二季度增加了170亿美元，但余额仍比2019年底大流行前的水平低1230亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Fed decisions can also influence the rates on auto loans, where rates are influenced by interest rates on Treasury notes, Rick noted. As of October, the average APR on a five-year auto loan for a new car was 3.89% and 6.12% for a used car, according to Bankrate.com. But some current offers were in the 2.5% range, the site noted.</p><p><blockquote>里克指出，美联储的决定还会影响汽车贷款利率，而汽车贷款利率又受到美国国债利率的影响。根据Bankrate.com的数据，截至10月份，新车五年期汽车贷款的平均年利率为3.89%，二手车为6.12%。但该网站指出，目前的一些报价在2.5%范围内。</blockquote></p><p> So does that mean people should get a loan now for a new ride? Rick doesn’t think so.</p><p><blockquote>那么，这是否意味着人们现在应该获得贷款来购买新车呢？瑞克不这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> For one thing, there’s an inventory problem with cars, like so many other products snarled in the current supply chain woes. Besides, Rick ultimately thinks car prices will fall as supply-chain issues ease. The savings from lower costs will be greater than the added costs of higher interest in his view.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，汽车存在库存问题，就像当前供应链困境中陷入困境的许多其他产品一样。此外，里克最终认为，随着供应链问题的缓解，汽车价格将会下降。他认为，较低成本带来的节省将大于较高利息带来的额外成本。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Schulz said, “by the time the auto loan rate go up, hopefully we will see auto prices revert a little more to normal and everything balances out.”</p><p><blockquote>同样，舒尔茨表示，“当汽车贷款利率上升时，希望我们能看到汽车价格稍微恢复正常，一切都会平衡。”</blockquote></p><p> As consumers figure out their next moves, the stock market liked what it heard from Powell on Wednesday. Benchmarks climbed in the afternoon and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.08%closed up 1.1%, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +1.63%finished up 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者弄清楚他们的下一步行动，股市喜欢周三从鲍威尔那里听到的消息。基准指数午后攀升，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+1.08%收盘上涨1.1%，标普500 SPX指数+1.63%收盘上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?<blockquote>美联储的决定对你的钱包、你的信用卡账单意味着什么——抵押贷款利率会走多远？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?<blockquote>美联储的决定对你的钱包、你的信用卡账单意味着什么——抵押贷款利率会走多远？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on what the central bank will do to keep the economy rebounding from the pandemic while countering the hot inflation that has consumers’ wallets sizzling.</p><p><blockquote>所有的目光都集中在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔身上，周三市场消化了有关美联储将采取哪些措施来保持经济从疫情中反弹，同时应对让消费者钱包火热的通胀的消息。</blockquote></p><p> Market observers were betting the Fed will conclude its bond buying — a move to help the economy in the pandemic’s earlier phases — quicker than expected and chart a course for more interest rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>市场观察人士押注美联储将比预期更快地结束债券购买——这是在疫情早期阶段帮助经济的举措，并制定进一步加息的路线。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed said Wednesday afternoon it would reduce its bond purchases by $30 billion a month so it could end the program in March, instead of June. The Fed penciled in three rate hikes in 2022, instead of one hike.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周三下午表示，将每月减少300亿美元的债券购买，以便在3月份而不是6月份结束该计划。美联储预计2022年加息三次，而不是一次。</blockquote></p><p> Powell talked about the decision at a Wednesday afternoon press conference, saying the economy was strong enough now to handle the potential steps.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在周三下午的新闻发布会上谈到了这一决定，称经济现在足够强劲，可以应对潜在的措施。</blockquote></p><p> “We understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We, at the Fed, will do everything we can to complete the recovery in employment and achieve our price stability goal,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“我们明白，我们的行动影响着全国各地的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了服务于我们的公共使命。我们美联储将尽一切努力完成就业复苏，实现我们的物价稳定目标。”</blockquote></p><p> New projections from Fed officials foresee the closely-watched federal funds rate climbing 0.9% by the end of next year, to 1.6% by the end of 2023 and 2.1% by the end of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员的新预测预计，备受关注的联邦基金利率到明年年底将攀升0.9%，到2023年底升至1.6%，到2024年底升至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, some experts say consumers can do their own preparation for the Fed decision: Try to pay off their own credit-card bills as fast as possible now in order to avoid the extra interest rate costs waiting in future.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些专家表示，消费者可以为美联储的决定做好自己的准备：现在就尝试尽快还清自己的信用卡账单，以避免未来等待的额外利率成本。</blockquote></p><p> This is because annual percentage rates (APR) on credit cards hinge closely on the rates and targets set by the Fed, experts told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>专家告诉MarketWatch，这是因为信用卡的年利率(APR)与美联储设定的利率和目标密切相关。</blockquote></p><p> Credit-card issuers generally start their calculations on APR by looking at the U.S. prime rate, which is the rate that banks would extend to preferred customers.</p><p><blockquote>信用卡发行机构通常通过查看美国最优惠利率（银行向优先客户提供的利率）开始计算年利率。</blockquote></p><p> When banks determine the prime rate, they are looking at factors including the target level of the federal funds rate. (That’s the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve committee determining what banks charge each other for short-term, overnight loans.)</p><p><blockquote>当银行确定最优惠利率时，他们会考虑包括联邦基金利率目标水平在内的因素。（这是美联储委员会设定的利率，决定了银行对短期隔夜贷款的相互收费。）</blockquote></p><p> Layer on extra lending costs, like the so-called “credit risk” of a potential customer, and that’s essentially the ingredients of a credit card’s APR, said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, which provides insurance products and wealth management services to credit unions.</p><p><blockquote>提供保险产品和财富管理服务的CUNA Mutual Group首席经济学家史蒂夫·里克(Steve Rick)表示，再加上额外的贷款成本，例如潜在客户的所谓“信用风险”，这本质上是信用卡年利率的组成部分。信用合作社。</blockquote></p><p> So when Fed rate hikes zoom into view and then happen, consumers quickly can have their own future rate hikes to absorb. That’s worth knowing during a bustling holiday season amid rising costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当美联储加息进入视野并发生时，消费者很快就可以吸收自己未来的加息。在成本不断上涨的繁忙假期期间，这一点值得了解。</blockquote></p><p> “The best financial move they can make is pay off that credit-card balance,” Rick said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们能采取的最好的财务举措就是还清信用卡余额，”里克说。</blockquote></p><p> If banks “see rate increases on the horizon and they anticipate changes like a taper, you may end seeing rates increase for different types of loans,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.</p><p><blockquote>LendingTree首席信贷分析师马特·舒尔茨(Matt Schulz)表示，如果银行“看到利率即将上升，并预计会出现缩减等变化，那么你可能最终会看到不同类型贷款的利率上升”。</blockquote></p><p> “Credit cards are among the most influenced by the Fed because so many credit card interest rates are based on the prime rate,” he said. “If you have credit-card debt now, it would probably be a good idea to assume that your rates are going to go up in the not-too-distant future. If you can put a little more to credit card debt to knock it down, the better off you are.”</p><p><blockquote>“信用卡是受美联储影响最大的信用卡之一，因为许多信用卡利率都是基于最优惠利率，”他说。“如果你现在有信用卡债务，那么假设你的利率在不久的将来会上升可能是个好主意。如果你能在信用卡债务上多投入一点来减少它，你的情况就越好。”</blockquote></p><p> Mortgage rates are also influenced by the Fed’s actions, noted Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Mortgages rates could rise from about 3% now to 3.7% by the end of 2022, according to a consensus of forecasts,” he said, adding that rates on loans, including credits cards “will increase more or less in lockstep with federal fund rate increases.”</p><p><blockquote>海军联邦信用合作社企业经济学家罗伯特·弗里克指出，抵押贷款利率也受到美联储行动的影响。他表示：“根据普遍预测，到2022年底，抵押贷款利率可能会从现在的约3%升至3.7%。”他补充说，包括信用卡在内的贷款利率“将或多或少与联邦基金利率同步上升”利率上升。”</blockquote></p><p> The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.1% for the week ending Dec. 9.</p><p><blockquote>截至12月9日当周，30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The rates on savings accounts and CDs will also increase, Frick said — “and if the Fed is successful in driving inflation down, savers could see the interest they earn on accounts finally catch up with inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>弗里克表示，储蓄账户和存款证的利率也将上升——“如果美联储成功压低通胀，储户可能会看到他们从账户中赚取的利息最终赶上通胀。”</blockquote></p><p> But credit-card users could see the rates potentially rise quickly after a rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>但信用卡用户可能会看到加息后利率可能会迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p> Following even a quarter percentage point increase in the fed funds rate, it historically takes credit-card companies one or two months to bring on higher APRs, Schulz said. That’s one or two billing cycles, but, Schulz added, “They could do it the next day.”</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨表示，即使联邦基金利率上调四分之一个百分点，信用卡公司从历史上看也需要一两个月的时间才能带来更高的年利率。这是一两个计费周期，但是，舒尔茨补充说，“他们可以在第二天完成。”</blockquote></p><p> The average APR on all new card offers was 19.55% this month, up from 19.49% in November, according to LendingTree. The maximum APR was 23.21% and the minimum was 15.89%, according to the online platform where people can shop around on credit card offers, car loans and mortgages.</p><p><blockquote>根据LendingTree的数据，本月所有新卡优惠的平均年利率为19.55%，高于11月份的19.49%。根据人们可以货比三家购买信用卡、汽车贷款和抵押贷款的在线平台，最高年利率为23.21%，最低年利率为15.89%。</blockquote></p><p> Suppose a person has a $5,000 balance on their credit card and an APR between 19% and 20%, said Schulz. A single percentage point increase would tack on approximately $70 to $80 to completely pay the owed amount, plus interest, he said.</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨说，假设一个人的信用卡余额为5,000美元，年利率在19%至20%之间。他说，增加一个百分点将增加大约70至80美元，以完全支付所欠金额和利息。</blockquote></p><p> That might not sound like a lot to some people, Schulz said. “When you are living paycheck to paycheck, trying to knock that debt really does matter.”</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨说，这对某些人来说可能听起来不多。“当你靠薪水生活时，努力还清债务确实很重要。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Smaller added costs matter even for financially secure households watching rising prices burn into their disposable income. And the timing on the Fed decision matters too because the closely-watched decision comes during the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>即使对于经济上有保障的家庭来说，较小的额外成本也很重要，因为他们眼睁睁地看着物价上涨耗尽了他们的可支配收入。美联储做出决定的时机也很重要，因为备受关注的决定是在假期期间做出的。</blockquote></p><p> Typically, consumers incur “modest” increases in their credit card balances during the second and third quarters, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. Then, balances balloon during the holiday season in the fourth quarter and people pay off the balances in the first quarter, researchers said. Then the cycle repeats itself.</p><p><blockquote>根据纽约联邦储备银行的数据，通常情况下，消费者的信用卡余额在第二和第三季度会“适度”增加。研究人员表示，然后，余额在第四季度假期期间激增，人们在第一季度还清余额。然后循环重复。</blockquote></p><p> On this go-round, there could be higher credit card costs waiting for people in 2022 when they are paying off their 2021 holiday spending spree and traveling to make up lost time with friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>在这一轮中，2022年，当人们还清2021年的假期消费热潮并旅行以弥补与朋友和家人失去的时间时，信用卡费用可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Holiday shopping could break records this year and reach $859 billion sales, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国零售联合会的数据，今年假日购物可能会打破记录，销售额达到8590亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Americans held roughly $800 billion in credit card debt during the third quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. That’s a $17 billion increase from the second quarter, but the balance is still $123 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联邦储备银行表示，第三季度美国人持有约8000亿美元的信用卡债务。这比第二季度增加了170亿美元，但余额仍比2019年底大流行前的水平低1230亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Fed decisions can also influence the rates on auto loans, where rates are influenced by interest rates on Treasury notes, Rick noted. As of October, the average APR on a five-year auto loan for a new car was 3.89% and 6.12% for a used car, according to Bankrate.com. But some current offers were in the 2.5% range, the site noted.</p><p><blockquote>里克指出，美联储的决定还会影响汽车贷款利率，而汽车贷款利率又受到美国国债利率的影响。根据Bankrate.com的数据，截至10月份，新车五年期汽车贷款的平均年利率为3.89%，二手车为6.12%。但该网站指出，目前的一些报价在2.5%范围内。</blockquote></p><p> So does that mean people should get a loan now for a new ride? Rick doesn’t think so.</p><p><blockquote>那么，这是否意味着人们现在应该获得贷款来购买新车呢？瑞克不这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> For one thing, there’s an inventory problem with cars, like so many other products snarled in the current supply chain woes. Besides, Rick ultimately thinks car prices will fall as supply-chain issues ease. The savings from lower costs will be greater than the added costs of higher interest in his view.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，汽车存在库存问题，就像当前供应链困境中陷入困境的许多其他产品一样。此外，里克最终认为，随着供应链问题的缓解，汽车价格将会下降。他认为，较低成本带来的节省将大于较高利息带来的额外成本。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Schulz said, “by the time the auto loan rate go up, hopefully we will see auto prices revert a little more to normal and everything balances out.”</p><p><blockquote>同样，舒尔茨表示，“当汽车贷款利率上升时，希望我们能看到汽车价格稍微恢复正常，一切都会平衡。”</blockquote></p><p> As consumers figure out their next moves, the stock market liked what it heard from Powell on Wednesday. Benchmarks climbed in the afternoon and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.08%closed up 1.1%, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +1.63%finished up 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者弄清楚他们的下一步行动，股市喜欢周三从鲍威尔那里听到的消息。基准指数午后攀升，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+1.08%收盘上涨1.1%，标普500 SPX指数+1.63%收盘上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-fed-decision-means-for-your-wallet-and-your-credit-card-bill-11639595377?mod=newsviewer_click\">market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-fed-decision-means-for-your-wallet-and-your-credit-card-bill-11639595377?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115910347","content_text":"All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on what the central bank will do to keep the economy rebounding from the pandemic while countering the hot inflation that has consumers’ wallets sizzling.\n\nMarket observers were betting the Fed will conclude its bond buying — a move to help the economy in the pandemic’s earlier phases — quicker than expected and chart a course for more interest rate hikes.\n\n\nThe Fed said Wednesday afternoon it would reduce its bond purchases by $30 billion a month so it could end the program in March, instead of June. The Fed penciled in three rate hikes in 2022, instead of one hike.\n\nPowell talked about the decision at a Wednesday afternoon press conference, saying the economy was strong enough now to handle the potential steps.\n\n“We understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We, at the Fed, will do everything we can to complete the recovery in employment and achieve our price stability goal,” Powell said.\n\nNew projections from Fed officials foresee the closely-watched federal funds rate climbing 0.9% by the end of next year, to 1.6% by the end of 2023 and 2.1% by the end of 2024.\n\nIn the meantime, some experts say consumers can do their own preparation for the Fed decision: Try to pay off their own credit-card bills as fast as possible now in order to avoid the extra interest rate costs waiting in future.\n\nThis is because annual percentage rates (APR) on credit cards hinge closely on the rates and targets set by the Fed, experts told MarketWatch.\n\nCredit-card issuers generally start their calculations on APR by looking at the U.S. prime rate, which is the rate that banks would extend to preferred customers.\n\nWhen banks determine the prime rate, they are looking at factors including the target level of the federal funds rate. (That’s the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve committee determining what banks charge each other for short-term, overnight loans.)\n\n\nLayer on extra lending costs, like the so-called “credit risk” of a potential customer, and that’s essentially the ingredients of a credit card’s APR, said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, which provides insurance products and wealth management services to credit unions.\n\nSo when Fed rate hikes zoom into view and then happen, consumers quickly can have their own future rate hikes to absorb. That’s worth knowing during a bustling holiday season amid rising costs.\n\n“The best financial move they can make is pay off that credit-card balance,” Rick said.\n\nIf banks “see rate increases on the horizon and they anticipate changes like a taper, you may end seeing rates increase for different types of loans,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.\n\n“Credit cards are among the most influenced by the Fed because so many credit card interest rates are based on the prime rate,” he said. “If you have credit-card debt now, it would probably be a good idea to assume that your rates are going to go up in the not-too-distant future. If you can put a little more to credit card debt to knock it down, the better off you are.”\n\nMortgage rates are also influenced by the Fed’s actions, noted Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Mortgages rates could rise from about 3% now to 3.7% by the end of 2022, according to a consensus of forecasts,” he said, adding that rates on loans, including credits cards “will increase more or less in lockstep with federal fund rate increases.”\n\nThe 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.1% for the week ending Dec. 9.\n\nThe rates on savings accounts and CDs will also increase, Frick said — “and if the Fed is successful in driving inflation down, savers could see the interest they earn on accounts finally catch up with inflation.”\n\nBut credit-card users could see the rates potentially rise quickly after a rate hike.\n\nFollowing even a quarter percentage point increase in the fed funds rate, it historically takes credit-card companies one or two months to bring on higher APRs, Schulz said. That’s one or two billing cycles, but, Schulz added, “They could do it the next day.”\n\nThe average APR on all new card offers was 19.55% this month, up from 19.49% in November, according to LendingTree. The maximum APR was 23.21% and the minimum was 15.89%, according to the online platform where people can shop around on credit card offers, car loans and mortgages.\n\nSuppose a person has a $5,000 balance on their credit card and an APR between 19% and 20%, said Schulz. A single percentage point increase would tack on approximately $70 to $80 to completely pay the owed amount, plus interest, he said.\n\nThat might not sound like a lot to some people, Schulz said. “When you are living paycheck to paycheck, trying to knock that debt really does matter.”\n\nSmaller added costs matter even for financially secure households watching rising prices burn into their disposable income. And the timing on the Fed decision matters too because the closely-watched decision comes during the holiday season.\n\nTypically, consumers incur “modest” increases in their credit card balances during the second and third quarters, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. Then, balances balloon during the holiday season in the fourth quarter and people pay off the balances in the first quarter, researchers said. Then the cycle repeats itself.\n\nOn this go-round, there could be higher credit card costs waiting for people in 2022 when they are paying off their 2021 holiday spending spree and traveling to make up lost time with friends and family.\n\nHoliday shopping could break records this year and reach $859 billion sales, according to the National Retail Federation.\n\nAmericans held roughly $800 billion in credit card debt during the third quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. That’s a $17 billion increase from the second quarter, but the balance is still $123 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.\n\nFed decisions can also influence the rates on auto loans, where rates are influenced by interest rates on Treasury notes, Rick noted. As of October, the average APR on a five-year auto loan for a new car was 3.89% and 6.12% for a used car, according to Bankrate.com. But some current offers were in the 2.5% range, the site noted.\n\nSo does that mean people should get a loan now for a new ride? Rick doesn’t think so.\n\nFor one thing, there’s an inventory problem with cars, like so many other products snarled in the current supply chain woes. Besides, Rick ultimately thinks car prices will fall as supply-chain issues ease. The savings from lower costs will be greater than the added costs of higher interest in his view.\n\nLikewise, Schulz said, “by the time the auto loan rate go up, hopefully we will see auto prices revert a little more to normal and everything balances out.”\n\nAs consumers figure out their next moves, the stock market liked what it heard from Powell on Wednesday. Benchmarks climbed in the afternoon and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.08%closed up 1.1%, while the S&P 500 SPX, +1.63%finished up 1.6%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604798595,"gmtCreate":1639444154061,"gmtModify":1639444154907,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604798595","repostId":"2191984334","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604821507,"gmtCreate":1639372831487,"gmtModify":1639372832245,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604821507","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好算作延伸至12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605725180,"gmtCreate":1639269042839,"gmtModify":1639269043601,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605725180","repostId":"2190484675","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605229914,"gmtCreate":1639182718966,"gmtModify":1639182719748,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605229914","repostId":"1199826178","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605945190,"gmtCreate":1639105870319,"gmtModify":1639106427198,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605945190","repostId":"1173696854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173696854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639100666,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173696854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 09:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次衰退：“一切泡沫”何时破裂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173696854","media":"Fortune","summary":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be","content":"<p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>20XX年10月。那不是错别字。为了对下一次衰退何时开始做出最佳猜测，我们需要了解美联储如何创造不可持续的繁荣，以及为什么下一次萧条可能就在眼前。</blockquote></p><p> A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是。正如物理学家尼尔斯·玻尔（Niels Bohr）所说：“预测是非常困难的，尤其是如果它是关于未来的。”尽管如此，我会无所畏惧地用我的10美分来权衡。美联储的通胀政策使我的两美分增加了五倍。也许下一个加密货币即将出现：我的10美分。</blockquote></p><p> If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who&nbsp;warned the public&nbsp;that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?</p><p><blockquote>如果一只狗可以拥有加密货币，为什么一位退休的金融学教授不能拥有加密货币呢？他在1976年春天警告公众，由于美联储的通胀政策，价格即将加速上涨？</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!</p><p><blockquote>1976年消费价格上涨5.7%，1977年上涨6.5%，1978年上涨7.6%，1979年上涨11.3%，1980年上涨13.5%。谈论金钱是正确的！</blockquote></p><p> As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.</p><p><blockquote>由于通货膨胀在他的总统任期内肆虐，时任总统吉米·卡特于1979年任命前银行家和美国财政部官员保罗·沃尔克来阻止多年的价格螺旋式上升。沃尔克取得了惊人的成功。1981年消费者价格上涨10.3%，揭示了在美联储紧缩货币政策杀死通胀巨龙之前，通胀势头如何持续一段时间。1982年物价上涨6.1%，1983年上涨3.2%，1986年（奇迹中的奇迹）仅上涨1.9%，一年前沃尔克卸任美联储主席，由艾伦·格林斯潘接任。</blockquote></p><p> To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed&nbsp;raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现当时由于高通胀预期而被认为不太可能实现的目标，沃尔克领导的美联储在1980年12月之前将联邦基金利率（银行相互借入隔夜贷款的利率）提高到22%。沃尔克为阻止美元下滑所必需的紧缩货币政策的代价是连续的衰退：1980年的短暂衰退，然后是1981-1982年的另一次衰退。可以说，发生了一次长期衰退，实际上持续了三年，从1980年1月到1982年11月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinpointing the moment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>精确定位时刻</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.</p><p><blockquote>周期性衰退的最佳领先指标之一是失业率，失业率在1980年经济衰退前几个月的1979年5月达到周期性底部（5.6%），直到1982年11月才达到峰值（10.8%）。失业率一直在下降，直到1990年下一次裁员开始加速。</blockquote></p><p> Currently,<b>the unemployment rate</b>&nbsp;has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the&nbsp;historical pattern&nbsp;reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.</p><p><blockquote>目前，<b>失业率</b>自2020年初的封锁高峰以来一直在下降，并已达到历史上标志着周期性繁荣结束的水平。封锁无疑扭曲了失业率，但历史模式表明，当失业率接近3%然后上升时，衰退将很快开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The yield curve</b>&nbsp;is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益率曲线</b>是最广泛关注的金融指标之一，预示着通常在一年内出现衰退。收益率曲线揭示了短期和长期利率之间的关系。通常情况下，收益率曲线是向上倾斜的，就像今天一样，当短期利率低于长期利率时，反映了金融市场中大量的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was&nbsp;virtually inverted&nbsp;at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储担心经济“过热”时，它往往会提高联邦基金利率以冷却价格通胀，这种情况发生在2000年互联网泡沫和2007年房地产泡沫破裂之前。收益率曲线在2019年底几乎倒挂，表明经济衰退将在2020年某个时候开始。然而，为应对新冠肺炎而实施的封锁导致了2020年初的经济衰退，而不是典型的周期性衰退。</blockquote></p><p> Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein&nbsp;jected $4 trillion&nbsp;of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.</p><p><blockquote>现在经济正处于另一次周期性上升，因为美联储注入了4万亿美元的流动性来“模拟”经济。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最近一次会议上，决定将每月购买量从1200亿美元减少到1050亿美元。换句话说，即使通胀率最近同比突破6%，美联储仍将继续踩在货币踏板上。过去，通胀加速会敲响美联储加息的警钟，以抑制通胀压力和预期。目前，美联储的想法是价格通胀是“暂时性的”，因此不必收紧货币政策。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我无畏的预测是：2022年通胀将加速。然后，公众对物价飞涨的强烈抗议以及媒体报道强调物价如何摧毁普通家庭的购买力，可能会导致拜登政府像尼克松总统在1971年那样实施工资价格控制，以在1972年连任竞选前消除通货膨胀的刺痛。如果国会不赋予拜登实施价格控制的法定权力，他可以使用行政命令。</blockquote></p><p> Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有价格控制，我预计美联储将在2022年某个时候提高联邦基金利率，并在2023年继续收紧。因此，下一次衰退可能会在2023年秋季开始，但不会晚于一年后。如果衰退没有如期开始，只意味着它被推迟了，而不是被消除了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次衰退：“一切泡沫”何时破裂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次衰退：“一切泡沫”何时破裂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Fortune</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-10 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>20XX年10月。那不是错别字。为了对下一次衰退何时开始做出最佳猜测，我们需要了解美联储如何创造不可持续的繁荣，以及为什么下一次萧条可能就在眼前。</blockquote></p><p> A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是。正如物理学家尼尔斯·玻尔（Niels Bohr）所说：“预测是非常困难的，尤其是如果它是关于未来的。”尽管如此，我会无所畏惧地用我的10美分来权衡。美联储的通胀政策使我的两美分增加了五倍。也许下一个加密货币即将出现：我的10美分。</blockquote></p><p> If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who&nbsp;warned the public&nbsp;that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?</p><p><blockquote>如果一只狗可以拥有加密货币，为什么一位退休的金融学教授不能拥有加密货币呢？他在1976年春天警告公众，由于美联储的通胀政策，价格即将加速上涨？</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!</p><p><blockquote>1976年消费价格上涨5.7%，1977年上涨6.5%，1978年上涨7.6%，1979年上涨11.3%，1980年上涨13.5%。谈论金钱是正确的！</blockquote></p><p> As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.</p><p><blockquote>由于通货膨胀在他的总统任期内肆虐，时任总统吉米·卡特于1979年任命前银行家和美国财政部官员保罗·沃尔克来阻止多年的价格螺旋式上升。沃尔克取得了惊人的成功。1981年消费者价格上涨10.3%，揭示了在美联储紧缩货币政策杀死通胀巨龙之前，通胀势头如何持续一段时间。1982年物价上涨6.1%，1983年上涨3.2%，1986年（奇迹中的奇迹）仅上涨1.9%，一年前沃尔克卸任美联储主席，由艾伦·格林斯潘接任。</blockquote></p><p> To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed&nbsp;raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现当时由于高通胀预期而被认为不太可能实现的目标，沃尔克领导的美联储在1980年12月之前将联邦基金利率（银行相互借入隔夜贷款的利率）提高到22%。沃尔克为阻止美元下滑所必需的紧缩货币政策的代价是连续的衰退：1980年的短暂衰退，然后是1981-1982年的另一次衰退。可以说，发生了一次长期衰退，实际上持续了三年，从1980年1月到1982年11月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinpointing the moment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>精确定位时刻</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.</p><p><blockquote>周期性衰退的最佳领先指标之一是失业率，失业率在1980年经济衰退前几个月的1979年5月达到周期性底部（5.6%），直到1982年11月才达到峰值（10.8%）。失业率一直在下降，直到1990年下一次裁员开始加速。</blockquote></p><p> Currently,<b>the unemployment rate</b>&nbsp;has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the&nbsp;historical pattern&nbsp;reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.</p><p><blockquote>目前，<b>失业率</b>自2020年初的封锁高峰以来一直在下降，并已达到历史上标志着周期性繁荣结束的水平。封锁无疑扭曲了失业率，但历史模式表明，当失业率接近3%然后上升时，衰退将很快开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The yield curve</b>&nbsp;is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益率曲线</b>是最广泛关注的金融指标之一，预示着通常在一年内出现衰退。收益率曲线揭示了短期和长期利率之间的关系。通常情况下，收益率曲线是向上倾斜的，就像今天一样，当短期利率低于长期利率时，反映了金融市场中大量的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was&nbsp;virtually inverted&nbsp;at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储担心经济“过热”时，它往往会提高联邦基金利率以冷却价格通胀，这种情况发生在2000年互联网泡沫和2007年房地产泡沫破裂之前。收益率曲线在2019年底几乎倒挂，表明经济衰退将在2020年某个时候开始。然而，为应对新冠肺炎而实施的封锁导致了2020年初的经济衰退，而不是典型的周期性衰退。</blockquote></p><p> Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein&nbsp;jected $4 trillion&nbsp;of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.</p><p><blockquote>现在经济正处于另一次周期性上升，因为美联储注入了4万亿美元的流动性来“模拟”经济。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最近一次会议上，决定将每月购买量从1200亿美元减少到1050亿美元。换句话说，即使通胀率最近同比突破6%，美联储仍将继续踩在货币踏板上。过去，通胀加速会敲响美联储加息的警钟，以抑制通胀压力和预期。目前，美联储的想法是价格通胀是“暂时性的”，因此不必收紧货币政策。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我无畏的预测是：2022年通胀将加速。然后，公众对物价飞涨的强烈抗议以及媒体报道强调物价如何摧毁普通家庭的购买力，可能会导致拜登政府像尼克松总统在1971年那样实施工资价格控制，以在1972年连任竞选前消除通货膨胀的刺痛。如果国会不赋予拜登实施价格控制的法定权力，他可以使用行政命令。</blockquote></p><p> Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有价格控制，我预计美联储将在2022年某个时候提高联邦基金利率，并在2023年继续收紧。因此，下一次衰退可能会在2023年秋季开始，但不会晚于一年后。如果衰退没有如期开始，只意味着它被推迟了，而不是被消除了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html\">Fortune</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173696854","content_text":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.\nA caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.\nIf a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who warned the public that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?\nConsumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!\nAs inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.\nTo accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.\nPinpointing the moment\nOne of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.\nCurrently,the unemployment rate has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the historical pattern reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.\n\nThe yield curve is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.\nWhen the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was virtually inverted at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.\nNow the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein jected $4 trillion of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.\nMy fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.\nWithout price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not 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08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons the Stock Market Isn't That Worried About the Omicron Variant<blockquote>股市不那么担心奥密克戎变种的3个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156771449","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Omicron variant of Covid-19 may feel scary, but it isn’t actually all that bad for stocks. Despi","content":"<p>The Omicron variant of Covid-19 may feel scary, but it isn’t actually all that bad for stocks. Despite its plunge at the end of last week, the market has already implied as much.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19的奥密克戎变种可能让人感觉很可怕，但实际上对股市来说并没有那么糟糕。尽管上周末暴跌，但市场已经暗示了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all fell more than 2% Friday in response to news of the variant—a strain with a large number of mutations, which suggest it could infect people faster and in different ways. Investors seemed to panic, given the threat that travel restrictions, and even lockdowns, could harm the global economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数周五均下跌超过2%，以回应该变种的消息。该变种是一种具有大量突变的菌株，这表明它可能会以不同的方式更快地感染人们。鉴于旅行限制甚至封锁可能损害全球经济复苏的威胁，投资者似乎感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Some countries have already blocked travel from southern Africa, where the new variant was discovered, while Israel has closed its borders to foreign visitors. Even before Friday’s news, cases of Covid-19 were surging in Europe, prompting Austria to impose a lockdown.</p><p><blockquote>一些国家已经阻止了来自发现新变种的南部非洲的旅行，而以色列已经对外国游客关闭了边境。甚至在周五的消息发布之前，欧洲的新冠肺炎病例就已经激增，促使奥地利实施封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Friday’s stock-market moves seem to have been a temporary freak-out, rather than the start of a longer decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五股市的走势似乎只是暂时的恐慌，而不是长期下跌的开始。</blockquote></p><p> The first positive fact to consider is that some of Friday’s losses resulted from poor market liquidity in a shortened trading session. The negative Covid-19 news prompted some market participants to sell shares, but those sellers struggled to find buyers with many people gone for a four-day Thanksgiving weekend.</p><p><blockquote>要考虑的第一个积极事实是，周五的部分损失是由于交易时段缩短时市场流动性不佳造成的。新冠肺炎的负面消息促使一些市场参与者出售股票，但由于许多人在为期四天的感恩节周末外出，这些卖家很难找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> The number of shares in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ticker: SPY ) that changed hands on Friday was 59 million, according to FactSet. That was down from the roughly 70 million seen in the prior trading days, and some 39% of the peak of 150 million for the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据FactSet的数据，周五易手的SPDR标普500 ETF信托（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）股票数量为5900万股。这低于前几个交易日的约7000万，也低于2021年下半年峰值1.5亿的约39%。</blockquote></p><p> “Liquidity was relatively limited during a time of stress, seemingly exacerbating the slide,” wrote Christopher Harvey, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行首席股票策略师克里斯托弗·哈维写道：“在压力时期，流动性相对有限，似乎加剧了下滑。”</blockquote></p><p> Low volume also means that Friday’s losses don’t necessarily indicate that demand for shares will be weak going forward. With so many market participants on the sidelines, one can’t assume that those absent participants would have also been sellers. “With more investors returning from the holiday, the market can better discount the severity of the news,” wrote JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.</p><p><blockquote>成交量低迷还意味着周五的下跌并不一定表明未来对股票的需求将会疲软。有这么多市场参与者在观望，人们不能假设那些缺席的参与者也是卖家。德美利证券(TD Ameritrade)首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan写道：“随着更多投资者度假归来，市场可以更好地低估这一消息的严重性。”</blockquote></p><p> Right on cue, buyers came out in full force Monday, the second encouraging sign for stocks. The Nasdaq rose just over 2% to reclaim its level before Friday’s sell-off, while the Dow and S&amp;P 500 gained 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>恰逢其时，买家周一全面出动，这是股市的第二个令人鼓舞的迹象。纳斯达克上涨略高于2%，收复周五抛售前的水平，道琼斯指数和标普500指数分别上涨0.9%和1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The sizable move higher sent the S&amp;P 500 to a level that indicates investors are confident in the market. The index was trading at 4,665, almost 3% above its 50-day moving average of 4,530, confirming that investors largely believe the stock market can remain on an upward path.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨使标普500达到表明投资者对市场充满信心的水平。该指数报4,665点，较50日移动均线4,530点高出近3%，证实投资者基本上认为股市可以保持上升通道。</blockquote></p><p> That buying action is in direct response to the third positive signal: The Covid variant may not do much economic damage. Pfizer (PFE) said over the weekend that it can quickly adapt its vaccine to address the Omicron variant. Moderna (MRNA) said it could roll out a reformulated vaccine by early 2022. That means countries are more likely to continue reopening, keeping the economy growing.</p><p><blockquote>这种购买行为是对第三个积极信号的直接回应：Covid变种可能不会造成太大经济损失。辉瑞（PFE）周末表示，它可以快速调整其疫苗以应对奥密克戎病毒变种。Moderna(MRNA)表示，可能会在2022年初推出重新配方的疫苗。这意味着各国更有可能继续重新开放，保持经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means the new variant isn’t a concern — it is. It’s just that the market is signaling confidence that the news isn’t as bad as it could be.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着新变种不令人担忧——它确实令人担忧。只是市场正在发出信心信号，认为这个消息并没有想象中那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons the Stock Market Isn't That Worried About the Omicron Variant<blockquote>股市不那么担心奥密克戎变种的3个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons the Stock Market Isn't That Worried About the Omicron Variant<blockquote>股市不那么担心奥密克戎变种的3个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 08:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Omicron variant of Covid-19 may feel scary, but it isn’t actually all that bad for stocks. Despite its plunge at the end of last week, the market has already implied as much.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19的奥密克戎变种可能让人感觉很可怕，但实际上对股市来说并没有那么糟糕。尽管上周末暴跌，但市场已经暗示了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all fell more than 2% Friday in response to news of the variant—a strain with a large number of mutations, which suggest it could infect people faster and in different ways. Investors seemed to panic, given the threat that travel restrictions, and even lockdowns, could harm the global economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数周五均下跌超过2%，以回应该变种的消息。该变种是一种具有大量突变的菌株，这表明它可能会以不同的方式更快地感染人们。鉴于旅行限制甚至封锁可能损害全球经济复苏的威胁，投资者似乎感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Some countries have already blocked travel from southern Africa, where the new variant was discovered, while Israel has closed its borders to foreign visitors. Even before Friday’s news, cases of Covid-19 were surging in Europe, prompting Austria to impose a lockdown.</p><p><blockquote>一些国家已经阻止了来自发现新变种的南部非洲的旅行，而以色列已经对外国游客关闭了边境。甚至在周五的消息发布之前，欧洲的新冠肺炎病例就已经激增，促使奥地利实施封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Friday’s stock-market moves seem to have been a temporary freak-out, rather than the start of a longer decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五股市的走势似乎只是暂时的恐慌，而不是长期下跌的开始。</blockquote></p><p> The first positive fact to consider is that some of Friday’s losses resulted from poor market liquidity in a shortened trading session. The negative Covid-19 news prompted some market participants to sell shares, but those sellers struggled to find buyers with many people gone for a four-day Thanksgiving weekend.</p><p><blockquote>要考虑的第一个积极事实是，周五的部分损失是由于交易时段缩短时市场流动性不佳造成的。新冠肺炎的负面消息促使一些市场参与者出售股票，但由于许多人在为期四天的感恩节周末外出，这些卖家很难找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> The number of shares in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ticker: SPY ) that changed hands on Friday was 59 million, according to FactSet. That was down from the roughly 70 million seen in the prior trading days, and some 39% of the peak of 150 million for the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据FactSet的数据，周五易手的SPDR标普500 ETF信托（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）股票数量为5900万股。这低于前几个交易日的约7000万，也低于2021年下半年峰值1.5亿的约39%。</blockquote></p><p> “Liquidity was relatively limited during a time of stress, seemingly exacerbating the slide,” wrote Christopher Harvey, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行首席股票策略师克里斯托弗·哈维写道：“在压力时期，流动性相对有限，似乎加剧了下滑。”</blockquote></p><p> Low volume also means that Friday’s losses don’t necessarily indicate that demand for shares will be weak going forward. With so many market participants on the sidelines, one can’t assume that those absent participants would have also been sellers. “With more investors returning from the holiday, the market can better discount the severity of the news,” wrote JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.</p><p><blockquote>成交量低迷还意味着周五的下跌并不一定表明未来对股票的需求将会疲软。有这么多市场参与者在观望，人们不能假设那些缺席的参与者也是卖家。德美利证券(TD Ameritrade)首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan写道：“随着更多投资者度假归来，市场可以更好地低估这一消息的严重性。”</blockquote></p><p> Right on cue, buyers came out in full force Monday, the second encouraging sign for stocks. The Nasdaq rose just over 2% to reclaim its level before Friday’s sell-off, while the Dow and S&amp;P 500 gained 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>恰逢其时，买家周一全面出动，这是股市的第二个令人鼓舞的迹象。纳斯达克上涨略高于2%，收复周五抛售前的水平，道琼斯指数和标普500指数分别上涨0.9%和1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The sizable move higher sent the S&amp;P 500 to a level that indicates investors are confident in the market. The index was trading at 4,665, almost 3% above its 50-day moving average of 4,530, confirming that investors largely believe the stock market can remain on an upward path.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨使标普500达到表明投资者对市场充满信心的水平。该指数报4,665点，较50日移动均线4,530点高出近3%，证实投资者基本上认为股市可以保持上升通道。</blockquote></p><p> That buying action is in direct response to the third positive signal: The Covid variant may not do much economic damage. Pfizer (PFE) said over the weekend that it can quickly adapt its vaccine to address the Omicron variant. Moderna (MRNA) said it could roll out a reformulated vaccine by early 2022. That means countries are more likely to continue reopening, keeping the economy growing.</p><p><blockquote>这种购买行为是对第三个积极信号的直接回应：Covid变种可能不会造成太大经济损失。辉瑞（PFE）周末表示，它可以快速调整其疫苗以应对奥密克戎病毒变种。Moderna(MRNA)表示，可能会在2022年初推出重新配方的疫苗。这意味着各国更有可能继续重新开放，保持经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means the new variant isn’t a concern — it is. It’s just that the market is signaling confidence that the news isn’t as bad as it could be.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着新变种不令人担忧——它确实令人担忧。只是市场正在发出信心信号，认为这个消息并没有想象中那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stocks-omicron-outlook-liquidity-51638212050?mod=newsviewer_click\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stocks-omicron-outlook-liquidity-51638212050?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156771449","content_text":"The Omicron variant of Covid-19 may feel scary, but it isn’t actually all that bad for stocks. Despite its plunge at the end of last week, the market has already implied as much.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all fell more than 2% Friday in response to news of the variant—a strain with a large number of mutations, which suggest it could infect people faster and in different ways. Investors seemed to panic, given the threat that travel restrictions, and even lockdowns, could harm the global economic recovery.\nSome countries have already blocked travel from southern Africa, where the new variant was discovered, while Israel has closed its borders to foreign visitors. Even before Friday’s news, cases of Covid-19 were surging in Europe, prompting Austria to impose a lockdown.\nYet Friday’s stock-market moves seem to have been a temporary freak-out, rather than the start of a longer decline.\nThe first positive fact to consider is that some of Friday’s losses resulted from poor market liquidity in a shortened trading session. The negative Covid-19 news prompted some market participants to sell shares, but those sellers struggled to find buyers with many people gone for a four-day Thanksgiving weekend.\nThe number of shares in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker: SPY ) that changed hands on Friday was 59 million, according to FactSet. That was down from the roughly 70 million seen in the prior trading days, and some 39% of the peak of 150 million for the second half of 2021.\n“Liquidity was relatively limited during a time of stress, seemingly exacerbating the slide,” wrote Christopher Harvey, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo.\nLow volume also means that Friday’s losses don’t necessarily indicate that demand for shares will be weak going forward. With so many market participants on the sidelines, one can’t assume that those absent participants would have also been sellers. “With more investors returning from the holiday, the market can better discount the severity of the news,” wrote JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.\nRight on cue, buyers came out in full force Monday, the second encouraging sign for stocks. The Nasdaq rose just over 2% to reclaim its level before Friday’s sell-off, while the Dow and S&P 500 gained 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.\nThe sizable move higher sent the S&P 500 to a level that indicates investors are confident in the market. The index was trading at 4,665, almost 3% above its 50-day moving average of 4,530, confirming that investors largely believe the stock market can remain on an upward path.\nThat buying action is in direct response to the third positive signal: The Covid variant may not do much economic damage. Pfizer (PFE) said over the weekend that it can quickly adapt its vaccine to address the Omicron variant. Moderna (MRNA) said it could roll out a reformulated vaccine by early 2022. That means countries are more likely to continue reopening, keeping the economy growing.\nNone of this means the new variant isn’t a concern — it is. It’s just that the market is signaling confidence that the news isn’t as bad as it could 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ce. Can buy the dip&nbsp;","listText":"Nice. Can buy the dip&nbsp;","text":"Nice. Can buy the 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07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Nasdaq extend record streaks, with boost from chip, growth shares<blockquote>在芯片和成长股的推动下，标普500和纳斯达克延续了创纪录的连胜纪录</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128227989","media":"Reuters","summary":" - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Thursday, extending their streaks of record high closes to six sessions, as chipmaker stocks surged following Qualcomm’s strong financial forecast and investors digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to start reducing its monthly bond purchases.The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a slim loss, ending its streak of record closes at four. Declines in shares of banks JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group weighed on the blue-chip index.Financials dropped 1","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Thursday, extending their streaks of record high closes to six sessions, as chipmaker stocks surged following Qualcomm’s strong financial forecast and investors digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to start reducing its monthly bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-标普500和纳斯达克周四上涨，将收盘纪录高位连涨至六个交易日，因高通强劲的财务预测以及投资者消化了美联储开始减少月度债券购买的决定后，芯片制造商股市飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a slim loss, ending its streak of record closes at four. Declines in shares of banks JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Goldman Sachs Group weighed on the blue-chip index.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数小幅下跌，结束了四点收盘的纪录。摩根大通和高盛集团银行股的下跌打压了蓝筹股指数。</blockquote></p><p> Financials dropped 1.3%, most among S&amp;P 500 sectors, as U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the market unwinding expectations of quicker Fed rate hikes a day after the central bank signaled it was in no hurry to do so.</p><p><blockquote>金融股下跌1.3%，其中大部分是标普500板块，因美国国债收益率下跌，在美联储表示不急于加息的第二天，市场解除了对美联储更快加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “The growth side of the market is seeing more positive results today as they are benefiting from the falling yields that are developing,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>John Hancock Investment Management联席首席投资策略师马修·米斯金(Matthew Miskin)表示：“市场的增长方今天看到了更积极的结果，因为它们受益于收益率的下降。”</blockquote></p><p> “The market had been positioning for higher yields in general given the Fed announcement of tapering. As we walked in today, there has been a reversal in that.”</p><p><blockquote>“鉴于美联储宣布缩减规模，市场总体上一直在为更高的收益率做准备。当我们今天走进来时，这种情况已经发生了逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 33.35 points, or 0.09%, to 36,124.23, the S&amp;P 500 gained 19.49 points, or 0.42%, to 4,680.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 128.72 points, or 0.81%, to 15,940.31.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌33.35点，跌幅0.09%，至36,124.23点；标普500上涨19.49点，跌幅0.42%，至4,680.06点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨128.72点，跌幅0.81%，至15,940.31点。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index rose 1.2% while the S&amp;P 500 value index fell 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数上涨1.2%，标普500价值指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among S&amp;P 500 sectors, tech and consumer discretionary led the way, both rising about 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500板块中，科技和非必需消费品领涨，均上涨约1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm shares jumped 12.7% as the company forecast better-than-expected profits and revenue for its current quarter on soaring demand for chips used in phones, cars and other internet-connected devices.</p><p><blockquote>高通股价上涨12.7%，该公司预测本季度利润和收入好于预期，原因是手机、汽车和其他互联网连接设备所用芯片的需求飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index climbed 3.5%, with Nvidia soaring 12%.</p><p><blockquote>费城SE半导体指数上涨3.5%，英伟达飙升12%。</blockquote></p><p> Better-than-expected third-quarter earnings have helped lift sentiment for equities. With about 420 companies having reported, S&amp;P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 41.2% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES.</p><p><blockquote>好于预期的第三季度收益有助于提振股市情绪。根据Refinitiv IBES的数据，约有420家公司发布了财报，预计标普500第三季度盈利将同比增长41.2%。</blockquote></p><p> “The corporate earnings story remains quite bright,” said Craig Fehr, investment strategist at Edward Jones.</p><p><blockquote>爱德华·琼斯投资策略师克雷格·费尔表示：“企业盈利情况仍然相当光明。”</blockquote></p><p> “The market is rewarding companies that are beating and upping their outlook, and the market is punishing companies that are missing their estimates in the quarter and more importantly, perhaps, signaling a more sour outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场正在奖励那些超出预期并上调前景的公司，而市场正在惩罚那些本季度未达到预期的公司，也许更重要的是，这预示着前景更加糟糕。”</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares tumbled about 18% as the company slashed the 2021 sales forecast for its COVID-19 vaccine by as much as $5 billion, grappling to fill vials and distribute them to meet unprecedented world demand. Moderna shares weighed on the S&amp;P 500 healthcare sector, which fell 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna股价暴跌约18%，该公司将其COVID-19疫苗2021年的销售预测削减了多达50亿美元，并努力灌装和分销小瓶，以满足前所未有的全球需求。Moderna股价拖累标普500医疗保健板块，该板块下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly 20 months last week, suggesting the economy was regaining momentum. Investors will get a critical view of the economy with the monthly jobs report on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，上周美国新申请失业救济人数降至近20个月来的最低水平，表明经济正在恢复动力。投资者将从周五的月度就业报告中获得对经济的批判性看法。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.24-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.12比1；在纳斯达克，1.24比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 75 new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 224 new highs and 38 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下75个52周新高和5个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得224个新高和38个新低。</blockquote></p><p> About 11.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, above the 10.4 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有113亿股易手，高于过去20个交易日104亿股的日均水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Nasdaq extend record streaks, with boost from chip, growth shares<blockquote>在芯片和成长股的推动下，标普500和纳斯达克延续了创纪录的连胜纪录</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Nasdaq extend record streaks, with boost from chip, growth shares<blockquote>在芯片和成长股的推动下，标普500和纳斯达克延续了创纪录的连胜纪录</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Thursday, extending their streaks of record high closes to six sessions, as chipmaker stocks surged following Qualcomm’s strong financial forecast and investors digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to start reducing its monthly bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-标普500和纳斯达克周四上涨，将收盘纪录高位连涨至六个交易日，因高通强劲的财务预测以及投资者消化了美联储开始减少月度债券购买的决定后，芯片制造商股市飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a slim loss, ending its streak of record closes at four. Declines in shares of banks JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Goldman Sachs Group weighed on the blue-chip index.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数小幅下跌，结束了四点收盘的纪录。摩根大通和高盛集团银行股的下跌打压了蓝筹股指数。</blockquote></p><p> Financials dropped 1.3%, most among S&amp;P 500 sectors, as U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the market unwinding expectations of quicker Fed rate hikes a day after the central bank signaled it was in no hurry to do so.</p><p><blockquote>金融股下跌1.3%，其中大部分是标普500板块，因美国国债收益率下跌，在美联储表示不急于加息的第二天，市场解除了对美联储更快加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “The growth side of the market is seeing more positive results today as they are benefiting from the falling yields that are developing,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>John Hancock Investment Management联席首席投资策略师马修·米斯金(Matthew Miskin)表示：“市场的增长方今天看到了更积极的结果，因为它们受益于收益率的下降。”</blockquote></p><p> “The market had been positioning for higher yields in general given the Fed announcement of tapering. As we walked in today, there has been a reversal in that.”</p><p><blockquote>“鉴于美联储宣布缩减规模，市场总体上一直在为更高的收益率做准备。当我们今天走进来时，这种情况已经发生了逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 33.35 points, or 0.09%, to 36,124.23, the S&amp;P 500 gained 19.49 points, or 0.42%, to 4,680.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 128.72 points, or 0.81%, to 15,940.31.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌33.35点，跌幅0.09%，至36,124.23点；标普500上涨19.49点，跌幅0.42%，至4,680.06点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨128.72点，跌幅0.81%，至15,940.31点。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index rose 1.2% while the S&amp;P 500 value index fell 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数上涨1.2%，标普500价值指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among S&amp;P 500 sectors, tech and consumer discretionary led the way, both rising about 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500板块中，科技和非必需消费品领涨，均上涨约1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm shares jumped 12.7% as the company forecast better-than-expected profits and revenue for its current quarter on soaring demand for chips used in phones, cars and other internet-connected devices.</p><p><blockquote>高通股价上涨12.7%，该公司预测本季度利润和收入好于预期，原因是手机、汽车和其他互联网连接设备所用芯片的需求飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index climbed 3.5%, with Nvidia soaring 12%.</p><p><blockquote>费城SE半导体指数上涨3.5%，英伟达飙升12%。</blockquote></p><p> Better-than-expected third-quarter earnings have helped lift sentiment for equities. With about 420 companies having reported, S&amp;P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 41.2% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES.</p><p><blockquote>好于预期的第三季度收益有助于提振股市情绪。根据Refinitiv IBES的数据，约有420家公司发布了财报，预计标普500第三季度盈利将同比增长41.2%。</blockquote></p><p> “The corporate earnings story remains quite bright,” said Craig Fehr, investment strategist at Edward Jones.</p><p><blockquote>爱德华·琼斯投资策略师克雷格·费尔表示：“企业盈利情况仍然相当光明。”</blockquote></p><p> “The market is rewarding companies that are beating and upping their outlook, and the market is punishing companies that are missing their estimates in the quarter and more importantly, perhaps, signaling a more sour outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场正在奖励那些超出预期并上调前景的公司，而市场正在惩罚那些本季度未达到预期的公司，也许更重要的是，这预示着前景更加糟糕。”</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares tumbled about 18% as the company slashed the 2021 sales forecast for its COVID-19 vaccine by as much as $5 billion, grappling to fill vials and distribute them to meet unprecedented world demand. Moderna shares weighed on the S&amp;P 500 healthcare sector, which fell 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna股价暴跌约18%，该公司将其COVID-19疫苗2021年的销售预测削减了多达50亿美元，并努力灌装和分销小瓶，以满足前所未有的全球需求。Moderna股价拖累标普500医疗保健板块，该板块下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly 20 months last week, suggesting the economy was regaining momentum. Investors will get a critical view of the economy with the monthly jobs report on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，上周美国新申请失业救济人数降至近20个月来的最低水平，表明经济正在恢复动力。投资者将从周五的月度就业报告中获得对经济的批判性看法。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.24-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.12比1；在纳斯达克，1.24比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 75 new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 224 new highs and 38 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下75个52周新高和5个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得224个新高和38个新低。</blockquote></p><p> About 11.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, above the 10.4 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有113亿股易手，高于过去20个交易日104亿股的日均水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-nasdaq-extend-record-streaks-with-boost-from-chip-growth-shares-idUSL1N2RV2T0\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-nasdaq-extend-record-streaks-with-boost-from-chip-growth-shares-idUSL1N2RV2T0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128227989","content_text":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Thursday, extending their streaks of record high closes to six sessions, as chipmaker stocks surged following Qualcomm’s strong financial forecast and investors digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to start reducing its monthly bond purchases.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a slim loss, ending its streak of record closes at four. Declines in shares of banks JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group weighed on the blue-chip index.\nFinancials dropped 1.3%, most among S&P 500 sectors, as U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the market unwinding expectations of quicker Fed rate hikes a day after the central bank signaled it was in no hurry to do so.\n“The growth side of the market is seeing more positive results today as they are benefiting from the falling yields that are developing,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.\n“The market had been positioning for higher yields in general given the Fed announcement of tapering. As we walked in today, there has been a reversal in that.”\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 33.35 points, or 0.09%, to 36,124.23, the S&P 500 gained 19.49 points, or 0.42%, to 4,680.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 128.72 points, or 0.81%, to 15,940.31.\nThe S&P 500 growth index rose 1.2% while the S&P 500 value index fell 0.5%.\nAmong S&P 500 sectors, tech and consumer discretionary led the way, both rising about 1.5%.\nQualcomm shares jumped 12.7% as the company forecast better-than-expected profits and revenue for its current quarter on soaring demand for chips used in phones, cars and other internet-connected devices.\nThe Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index climbed 3.5%, with Nvidia soaring 12%.\nBetter-than-expected third-quarter earnings have helped lift sentiment for equities. With about 420 companies having reported, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 41.2% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES.\n“The corporate earnings story remains quite bright,” said Craig Fehr, investment strategist at Edward Jones.\n“The market is rewarding companies that are beating and upping their outlook, and the market is punishing companies that are missing their estimates in the quarter and more importantly, perhaps, signaling a more sour outlook.”\nModerna shares tumbled about 18% as the company slashed the 2021 sales forecast for its COVID-19 vaccine by as much as $5 billion, grappling to fill vials and distribute them to meet unprecedented world demand. Moderna shares weighed on the S&P 500 healthcare sector, which fell 0.8%.\nData showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly 20 months last week, suggesting the economy was regaining momentum. Investors will get a critical view of the economy with the monthly jobs report on Friday.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.24-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 75 new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 224 new highs and 38 new lows.\nAbout 11.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, above the 10.4 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851995723,"gmtCreate":1634862859431,"gmtModify":1634862891776,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577415925422402","idStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851995723","repostId":"2177467336","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":896110148,"gmtCreate":1628560943484,"gmtModify":1631886269560,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577415925422402","idStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a>Hahaha 😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a>Hahaha 😅","text":"$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$Hahaha 😅","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43699150b5bd34f42f0c69957c88f2de","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896110148","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":608114484,"gmtCreate":1638665049458,"gmtModify":1638665049798,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577415925422402","idStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608114484","repostId":"2188853578","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872374204,"gmtCreate":1637453110481,"gmtModify":1637453110833,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577415925422402","idStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872374204","repostId":"2184984959","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845849021,"gmtCreate":1636330761166,"gmtModify":1636330827472,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577415925422402","idStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up 🆙&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up 🆙&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up 🆙","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61cec9f0f946c869816140b2e600cae","width":"1125","height":"3853"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845849021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858651187,"gmtCreate":1635047866217,"gmtModify":1635047867050,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577415925422402","idStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858651187","repostId":"1197815871","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197815871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635036807,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197815871?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股票来说是不祥之兆。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197815871","media":"Barrons","summary":"Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.\nT","content":"<p>Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.</p><p><blockquote>消费者发出了令人担忧的信号，但投资者没有注意到。是时候注意了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.</p><p><blockquote>股市和消费者情绪通常同步上涨和下跌。以过去18个月为例。超宽松的全球货币政策、创纪录水平的财政刺激以及不断上升的盈利预期推动股市连创新高。同样的刺激力量，加上限制社会活动的疫情，帮助美国消费者积累了超过2万亿美元的储蓄，尽管劳动力市场收紧、工资攀升。那些股市上涨让消费者感到更加富裕，而富裕的消费者让投资者更加看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&amp;P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近这种相关性已经被打破。尽管股市走高，但消费者却变得不那么乐观，标普500指数周四创下历史新高。正如摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)指出的那样，密歇根大学消费者信心指数在8月份跌至2012年以来的最差水平后，9月份仅小幅反弹，跌至2020年3月大流行期间的低点。世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数同样暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> The gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，这些读数与股市变化之间的差距仍然异常大。当前读数与未来预期之间的差异也在扩大，这表明消费者并不认为他们的担忧是暂时的。尽管最新一波新冠肺炎感染似乎已经达到顶峰，但信心差距仍然存在，这意味着故事不仅仅是病毒。</blockquote></p><p> So, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.</p><p><blockquote>那么，谁是对的呢？Shalett倾向于消费者的观点，而且她并不孤单。</blockquote></p><p> In a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.</p><p><blockquote>在本月早些时候的一篇论文中，Dartmouth College经济学教授、英国央行货币政策委员会前外部成员David Blanchflower和University College London定量社会科学教授Alex Bryson写了他们看涨期权的“四处走动的经济学”。这个想法是：当地的人们根据他们自己的经验和他们认识的人的经验拥有关于经济趋势的信息，这使他们能够评估未来的经济趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Their conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.</p><p><blockquote>他们的结论是：经济冲击很难预测，但消费者预期的定性指标可以预测经济衰退。他们显示，密歇根大学和世界大型企业联合会的消费者预期指数提前18个月预测美国经济将出现衰退。他们发现，自20世纪80年代以来的所有衰退都是由这些指数至少下降10个百分点来预测的。</blockquote></p><p> The Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.</p><p><blockquote>Blanchflower和Bryson表示，密歇根州的指标在2021年6月达到峰值，到8月下降了18个百分点，而世界大型企业联合会的指标在2021年3月达到峰值，然后到2021年9月下降了26个百分点。他们表示，虽然他们看涨期权2021年的经济形势“异常”，但过去六个月消费者预期的下调表明美国经济现在正在进入衰退。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个大胆的看涨期权，与共识不一致，”布兰奇弗劳尔和布赖森说。“然而，正如大多数政策制定者和经济学家所做的那样，错过了2007年这些变量的下降，事实证明是致命的。”</blockquote></p><p> The reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>情绪恶化背后的原因至少与下跌本身一样重要。调查显示，通胀是消费者最关心的问题，即使美联储继续否认不断增加的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p> Consider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.</p><p><blockquote>以零售销售为例，华尔街认为这是消费者活跃的证据。Bleakley Advisory Group首席投资官Peter Boockvar指出，自3月份上一轮刺激支票发出以来，零售额仅增长了0.4%，而消费者价格指数则上涨了3.6%。“有人可能会说，自三月份以来的所有零售额以及部分零售额都是通货膨胀，而不是销量，”布克瓦尔说。</blockquote></p><p> Widespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.</p><p><blockquote>普遍的短缺意味着可购买的商品减少，但风险在于假设需求只是被推迟。如果消费者在等待汽车、房子和其他物品变得可用或负担得起时变得越来越谨慎，潜在的消费可能会丧失。</blockquote></p><p> People are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学经济学家理查德·科廷表示，尽管到处都有寻求帮助的迹象，工资也在快速增长，但人们也对就业市场感到担忧。工人们可能已经更永久地取消了在大流行期间风险更大的工作，并且没有支付足够的工资来支付成本，因为工资增长仍然跟不上消费者价格上涨的步伐。许多人正在开辟新的道路——新企业的形成继续爆炸式增长——强化了劳动力短缺不是暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p> What is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的结局是什么？沙莱特表示：“如果消费者信心没有迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而市场疲软将由令人失望的盈利、支出疲软和储蓄率上升引发。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，在一些地方，持久的劳动力短缺和消费者信心减弱交织在一起，建议投资者寻找那些利用了更有弹性的需求且对劳动力依赖较少的公司。她更喜欢企业对企业的公司，而不是那些直接向消费者销售的公司，并表示选股的最佳地点是银行、能源和工业。</blockquote></p><p> Consumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.</p><p><blockquote>消费者目前的恐惧可能是暂时的。但这种恐惧本身及其原因发出了投资者不应忽视的不祥信息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Consumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股票来说是不祥之兆。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConsumer Confidence Is Falling. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.<blockquote>消费者信心正在下降。为什么这对股票来说是不祥之兆。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-24 08:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.</p><p><blockquote>消费者发出了令人担忧的信号，但投资者没有注意到。是时候注意了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.</p><p><blockquote>股市和消费者情绪通常同步上涨和下跌。以过去18个月为例。超宽松的全球货币政策、创纪录水平的财政刺激以及不断上升的盈利预期推动股市连创新高。同样的刺激力量，加上限制社会活动的疫情，帮助美国消费者积累了超过2万亿美元的储蓄，尽管劳动力市场收紧、工资攀升。那些股市上涨让消费者感到更加富裕，而富裕的消费者让投资者更加看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&amp;P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近这种相关性已经被打破。尽管股市走高，但消费者却变得不那么乐观，标普500指数周四创下历史新高。正如摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)指出的那样，密歇根大学消费者信心指数在8月份跌至2012年以来的最差水平后，9月份仅小幅反弹，跌至2020年3月大流行期间的低点。世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数同样暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> The gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，这些读数与股市变化之间的差距仍然异常大。当前读数与未来预期之间的差异也在扩大，这表明消费者并不认为他们的担忧是暂时的。尽管最新一波新冠肺炎感染似乎已经达到顶峰，但信心差距仍然存在，这意味着故事不仅仅是病毒。</blockquote></p><p> So, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.</p><p><blockquote>那么，谁是对的呢？Shalett倾向于消费者的观点，而且她并不孤单。</blockquote></p><p> In a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.</p><p><blockquote>在本月早些时候的一篇论文中，Dartmouth College经济学教授、英国央行货币政策委员会前外部成员David Blanchflower和University College London定量社会科学教授Alex Bryson写了他们看涨期权的“四处走动的经济学”。这个想法是：当地的人们根据他们自己的经验和他们认识的人的经验拥有关于经济趋势的信息，这使他们能够评估未来的经济趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Their conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.</p><p><blockquote>他们的结论是：经济冲击很难预测，但消费者预期的定性指标可以预测经济衰退。他们显示，密歇根大学和世界大型企业联合会的消费者预期指数提前18个月预测美国经济将出现衰退。他们发现，自20世纪80年代以来的所有衰退都是由这些指数至少下降10个百分点来预测的。</blockquote></p><p> The Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.</p><p><blockquote>Blanchflower和Bryson表示，密歇根州的指标在2021年6月达到峰值，到8月下降了18个百分点，而世界大型企业联合会的指标在2021年3月达到峰值，然后到2021年9月下降了26个百分点。他们表示，虽然他们看涨期权2021年的经济形势“异常”，但过去六个月消费者预期的下调表明美国经济现在正在进入衰退。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个大胆的看涨期权，与共识不一致，”布兰奇弗劳尔和布赖森说。“然而，正如大多数政策制定者和经济学家所做的那样，错过了2007年这些变量的下降，事实证明是致命的。”</blockquote></p><p> The reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>情绪恶化背后的原因至少与下跌本身一样重要。调查显示，通胀是消费者最关心的问题，即使美联储继续否认不断增加的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p> Consider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.</p><p><blockquote>以零售销售为例，华尔街认为这是消费者活跃的证据。Bleakley Advisory Group首席投资官Peter Boockvar指出，自3月份上一轮刺激支票发出以来，零售额仅增长了0.4%，而消费者价格指数则上涨了3.6%。“有人可能会说，自三月份以来的所有零售额以及部分零售额都是通货膨胀，而不是销量，”布克瓦尔说。</blockquote></p><p> Widespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.</p><p><blockquote>普遍的短缺意味着可购买的商品减少，但风险在于假设需求只是被推迟。如果消费者在等待汽车、房子和其他物品变得可用或负担得起时变得越来越谨慎，潜在的消费可能会丧失。</blockquote></p><p> People are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学经济学家理查德·科廷表示，尽管到处都有寻求帮助的迹象，工资也在快速增长，但人们也对就业市场感到担忧。工人们可能已经更永久地取消了在大流行期间风险更大的工作，并且没有支付足够的工资来支付成本，因为工资增长仍然跟不上消费者价格上涨的步伐。许多人正在开辟新的道路——新企业的形成继续爆炸式增长——强化了劳动力短缺不是暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p> What is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的结局是什么？沙莱特表示：“如果消费者信心没有迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而市场疲软将由令人失望的盈利、支出疲软和储蓄率上升引发。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，在一些地方，持久的劳动力短缺和消费者信心减弱交织在一起，建议投资者寻找那些利用了更有弹性的需求且对劳动力依赖较少的公司。她更喜欢企业对企业的公司，而不是那些直接向消费者销售的公司，并表示选股的最佳地点是银行、能源和工业。</blockquote></p><p> Consumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.</p><p><blockquote>消费者目前的恐惧可能是暂时的。但这种恐惧本身及其原因发出了投资者不应忽视的不祥信息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-economy-stock-market-consumer-confidence-51634943248?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-economy-stock-market-consumer-confidence-51634943248?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197815871","content_text":"Consumers are sending worrisome signals that investors aren’t heeding. It’s time to pay attention.\nThe stock market and consumer sentiment usually rise and fall in tandem. Take the past 18 months. Ultraloose global monetary policy, record levels of fiscal stimulus, and rising earnings forecasts have sent stocks to successive highs. The same stimulative forces, plus a pandemic that curtailed social activity, helped U.S. consumers amass more than $2 trillion in savings, even as the labor market tightened and wages climbed. Those stock market gains made consumers feel even more flush, and flush consumers made investors more bullish.\nRecently, though, the correlation has broken down. Consumers have become far less cheery while the stock market has marched higher, with the S&P 500 index hitting an all-time high on Thursday. As Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, notes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index bounced up only slightly in September—to its March 2020 pandemic low—after dropping in August to the worst level since 2012. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index similarly tumbled.\nThe gap between those readings and the change in the stock market remains uncharacteristically wide, Shalett says. The difference between current readings and future expectations is also widening, suggesting that consumers don’t see their concerns as temporary. The confidence gap has persisted even as the latest wave of Covid-19 infections appears to have peaked, meaning there’s more to the story than the virus.\nSo, who is right? Shalett leans toward the consumer’s view, and she’s not alone.\nIn a paper earlier this month, David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, and Alex Bryson, a professor of quantitative social science at University College London, wrote about what they call “the economics of walking about.” The idea: that people on the ground possess information about economic trends based on their own experiences and the experiences of those they know, which allows them to assess future economic trends.\nTheir conclusion: Economic shocks are hard to predict, but qualitative metrics about consumer expectations are predictive of downturns. They show that consumer-expectations indexes from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board predict downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S. They find that all recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10-point drops in those indexes.\nThe Michigan gauge peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, while the Conference Board measure peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021, say Blanchflower and Bryson. While they call the economic situation in 2021 “exceptional,” downshifts in consumer expectations in the past six months suggest that the U.S. economy is entering recession now, they say.\n“This is a bold call, and not consistent with consensus,” say Blanchflower and Bryson. “However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policy makers and economists did, proved fatal.”\nThe reasons behind souring sentiment are at least as important as the decline itself. Surveys show that inflation is consumers’ top concern, even if the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss building pricing pressures.\nConsider retail sales, one series that Wall Street points to as evidence of buoyant consumers. Since March, when the last round of stimulus checks was sent, retail sales are up just 0.4%, while the consumer price index has risen 3.6%, notes Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “One can argue that all of the retail sales since March, and then some, is inflation and not volumes,” Boockvar says.\nWidespread shortages mean there is less to buy, but risk lies in assuming that demand is simply delayed. If consumers grow increasingly wary as they wait for cars, houses, and other items to become available—or affordable—potential consumption may be lost.\nPeople are also worried about the job market, says University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, despite ubiquitous help-wanted signs and fast wage growth. Workers may have written off more permanently jobs that became riskier during the pandemic and don’t pay enough to cover costs, as wage gains still haven’t kept pace with consumer price inflation. Many are forging new paths—new-business formation continues to explode—reinforcing the idea that the labor shortage isn’t so temporary.\nWhat is the upshot for investors? “If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending, and higher savings rates,” says Shalett.\nThere are places where a lasting labor shortage and waning consumer confidence intersect, she says, recommending that investors look for companies that have tapped into more resilient demand and are less dependent on labor. She prefers business-to-business companies over those that sell directly to consumers, and says the best places to stock-pick are in banking, energy, and industrials.\nConsumers’ current funk could be transitory. But the funk itself, and the reasons for it, send an ominous message that investors shouldn’t ignore.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}