锋页子的个人主页 - 老虎社区

锋页子

锋页子

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2023-05-20

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

暴跌30%，韩国楼市的噩梦结束了么？

2021-12-30

[开心] [开心] [开心]

2021-10-14

我觉得今天老虎是来赚手续费的！

2021-10-14

就没搞懂大家都夸钱放那不卖能这么跌嘛？

2021-09-30

$TagLikeMe Corp.(TAGG)$撒子鬼哦！

2021-07-02

不知道那么多人在卖撒子

2021-07-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$瞎跑

2021-06-24

大家一起吃肉肉！

2021-06-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$跳跳虎又来了！

2021-06-10

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$都是11块的成本了，这些人卖撒！

2021-06-09

有股神秘的力量！加油！

2021-06-04

$老虎证券(TIGR)$不要针扎，下来吧！我接你！

2021-06-03

又要织毛衣了？

2021-05-07

我擦！要翻天？

2021-05-06

$老虎证券(TIGR)$又来了！哎！

2021-05-06

没用过不要bb

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-28

来个一泻千里

2021-04-28

$理想汽车(LI)$扶不起的阿斗！

2021-04-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$又横盘了！

2021-04-27

$老虎证券(TIGR)$又横盘？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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09:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"暴跌30%，韩国楼市的噩梦结束了么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166675188","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与全球第一的香港不相上下。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，2021年购房的租房的韩国人，却开始一场噩梦。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年8月随着韩国央行开始加息，房价开启了崩盘模式，首尔实际交易房价暴跌25%，部分社区更是跌了3-4成，跌幅达历史之最，成交量也暴跌超7成。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。历来的地产危机告诉我们，背后地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着乐高乐园担保违约以及传出房地产贷款业务的券商面临倒闭，2022年10月，韩国金融当局出台了总额高达50万亿韩元的救市计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时又在今年年初放松了施加于房地产市场的史上最严调控。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国楼市能不能在暴跌30%后安全着陆？</p><h2>“全租房”的杠杆游戏</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">和历史上所有房地产故事一样，韩国也始于熟悉的配方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年欧债危机蔓延到韩国出口需求，韩国将基准利率由3.25%下调至1.25%，成为这轮房地产上行的起点。而2020年疫情的爆发，韩国更是将基准利率降到了0.5%。韩国房价直接飞起。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得一提的是，前韩国总统文在寅也曾努力想要刹住房价这辆高速行驶的车。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他在任的四年间，搞了大大小小28项调控措施，堪称史上最强调控。然而这些，在上涨的房价面前，不但不堪一击，甚至还对房价的上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>韩国房价“越调越涨”背后不仅是炒房房东的贪婪，是普通民众的焦虑，还是海外投资者的煽风点火。而韩国“全租房”的制度，更是通过扩大杠杆对房价带来助涨助跌的效果。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“全租房”即租客一次性缴纳房价五到八成的押金即可入住，期间不用支付租金，到约定期满后，房东退还租客全部押金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在房价上涨的时候，房东可以利用住房吸引租客的押金，投资更多房地产，放大杠杆增加收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而租客也可以去银行贷款付全租押金，每月支付利息。支付的利息只有普通月租的1/4，甚至更低。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec5b5d2eea7748c740a6cc8391b87c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这种模式在低利率和房价上涨时看似两全其美。</strong>但问题是，房东拿到押金继续买房，过度的杠杆把房价炒到了过高的水平。租客靠着银行贷款，低息租房本以为可以攒点钱自己买房，但越来越高的房价始终超过可承受范围。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>就在双方不停加杠杆的基础上，加息永远是一剂后劲十足的猛药。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年8月至2022年7月，韩国六次加息。随着贷款利率上升，一方面房东的还贷成本增加，同时租客贷款的负担也日益加重。当租客想要回押金时，很多房东却由于连环炒房（A租客的押金付B房的首付，B房的押金付C房的首付……），或者无法寻到新的租客，无法退回押金，只能选择卖房，卖房的越来越多，房地产泡沫便开始破裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2022年韩国发生了2073起全租房保证金并吞案，涉及金额达到7千多亿韩元。<strong>手握巨额押金的房东们资金链断裂，拿不回押金的租客们却还要继续高息还贷。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国有专家预计今年的全租押金损失最多将达到1兆8千亿韩元的损失，房价雪崩的势头难以扼制。</p><h2>冰山下的黑影</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而历来的地产危机告诉我们，购房者资金断裂，租客血本无归从来不是楼市噩梦的全部。冰山下更深的黑影，还有地产金融链条的崩塌和实体房企的破产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1、银行贷款拖欠</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年末韩国家庭信贷总额创下新高，达到1863万亿，两年新增262万亿。其中住房贷款要占到一半以上。而韩国房贷利率已经上调至7~8%的高位。上次韩国各银行房贷利率超过7%，还是在2007年。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d2576fc1d3e21234a49dbcf7cdc5151\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"297\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国家庭几乎80%的未偿贷款采用浮动利率，因此这对于普通购房人都已经是非常承重的压力，更不用说放杠杆的全租房买家了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国房源网站Zigbang计算，当抵押贷款年利率为4%，首尔公寓的月供将占城市居民平均可支配收入的45%。<strong>而当年利率上升到7%，月供将增加到可支配收入的60%-70%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国金融监管机构也预计，<strong>随着平均抵押贷款利率7%，拖欠贷款的人数或将增加50万至190万。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2、开发商资不抵债</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着创韩国楼市下跌的历史之最，同样大肆举债的房地产开发商开始陷入困局。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国媒体援引调查指出，<strong>韩国30家大型建筑企业中有11家的负债率超过200%。韩国银行调查亦显示，已有约36％的房地产上市开发商的营业利润完全无法偿还利息，</strong>韩国房地产已经陷入流动性危机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而被地方政府担保、被视为没有风险的乐高乐园项目的违约，点燃了市场对开发商融资的全面担忧，甚至蔓延到整个企业债市场。韩国信贷市场迅速恶化，企业贷款难度直线上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三个月内，<strong>评级最高的三年期韩国企业债券和国债的利差飙升至149个基点。</strong>韩国商业票据收益率也飙升至13年最高水平。企业融资一度陷入僵局。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e355734b83b1796f2aa1fc23d48cb18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3、冰山下的影子金融</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国金融研究院报告显示，由于利率长期保持在低位，<strong>房地产影子金融已经达到750万亿韩元，刷新历史最高纪录，比2018年末增加88.6%之多</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">房地产影子金融是指游离于银行系统之外，不受健全法规制度限制的房产基金、信托和项目融资（PF）贷款等房产金融投资产品。PF甚至一度被投资者称为“下金蛋的鹅”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">可随着市场景气急转直下和利率飙升影响，<strong>韩国银行表示，影子金融的风险敞口约占到总资产的30%左右，在100万-200万亿韩元。</strong>主要为各类保险、资产公司、证券公司、甚至退休基金等。<strong>其中保险在PF贷款上的风险敞口极大。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至去年9月底，银子金融系统的房地产项目融资拖欠率在9个月内上涨了2倍以上，证券公司的拖欠率上升到了8.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些影子<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>和银行系统也存在大量的过桥交易，一旦出现问题，风险可能传导至整个金融体系。</p><h2>韩国政府万亿救市</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着乐高乐园违约事件的发酵和房地产金融链的枯竭，<strong>韩国金融当局于去年10月出台了50万亿救市计划（约合2534亿元人民币）。</strong>以扩大实施流动性供应，稳定国内的金融市场稳定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">包括：在扩大2万亿低评级公司债购买的基础上，将20万亿韩元的稳定债券中注入1.6万亿韩元基金，与房地产项目相关的资产支持商业票据成为目标之一。把国有银行经营的公司债券购买额度的上限提高一倍，达到16万亿韩元（110亿美元）等，以恢复企业债券融资市场的流动性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>同时韩国政府在去年年底至今年年初，放松了房地产市场的多项监管。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">包括：对首次购房者和拥有一套住房的人放宽贷款规定；对低总价购房人实施固定利率的贷款优惠；计划减免针对多套住宅拥有者的综合房地产税重课税率。将把首尔及其周边地区从密切关注的投机地区中删除；取消首都圈的“预售价格上限制度”等等。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>随着韩国当局及时介入，地产融资市场已经出现好转的迹象，今年3月企业债和国债的利差已经回落到去年初的较低水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>房价也有所企稳。</strong>据韩国不动产厅消息，3月首尔公寓实际成交价格指数环比上涨1.61%。（实际成交价格指数是仅汇总实际成交的公寓价格变动的统计数据。）尤其是江南3区（江南、瑞草、松坡）所属的东南地区涨幅最大。全国17个省市中，世宗市涨幅最大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，今年首尔的公寓交易了9795套，<strong>虽比年初有所复苏，但仍远低于往年同期，</strong>且集中在一些大面积地区。大部分公寓仍处于“0交易”状态。而挂牌待售房屋却显著增长，达到8年来的高点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">专家表示，判断公寓价格触底交易量需要超过5000套/月均，这是过去五年的均值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf117108ca6a1246eb2e5e6ef347ca7\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><h2>韩国楼市噩梦结束了嘛？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国楼市能不能平复取决于两个方面。<strong>一个是地产影子融资链的稳定，其次是购房需求的回暖。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从地产融资链来看，目前地产开发建筑商负债率较高，盈利能力走弱是现实，需要不断地有资金补充进来，直到销售复苏。与此同时，地产影子金融近几年增长过快，一旦再度出现企业或项目违约，便极易诱发影子融资链的断裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而从终端的购房需求来看，<strong>目前韩国的家庭负债杠杆（占GDP）已经达到了108%，远高于美国、中国、日本、欧元区76-60%左右的水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据韩国银行资料，2020年以来的“恐慌性购房”，使得三十岁一档年轻人的家庭贷款剧烈增长。<strong>家庭贷款占收入比率大幅提升24个百分点至260%以上。</strong>严重透支了未来的消费的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在高企的债务和利率水平下，楼市成交量要显著复苏似乎更像是无根之木，无薪之火。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da75a8ad838b2c03a048bb446cd316ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>而居民杠杆率过高时，总是要迎来清算的一天。</strong>是像美国那样通过次贷危机去杠杆，还是通过出口复苏增加收入去杠杆，亦或是通过货币宽松继续苟延残喘？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，尽管当前在政府的大力救助下，韩国房地产危机暂时被掩盖了起来，但背后深层次的居民杠杆、开发商困局、影子金融等问题并没有任何改变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国的房地产市场不得不怀揣时刻爆雷的噩梦，直到去杠杆那一天的到来。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暴跌30%，韩国楼市的噩梦结束了么？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌30%，韩国楼市的噩梦结束了么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-20 09:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689152><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与全球第一的香港不相上下。然而，2021年购房的租房的韩国人，却开始一场噩梦。2021年8月随着韩国央行开始加息，房价开启了崩盘模式，首尔实际交易房价暴跌25%，部分社区更是跌了3-4成，跌幅达历史之最...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689152\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06998f098ca391e0a64edfd0497ec5c5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166675188","content_text":"房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与全球第一的香港不相上下。然而，2021年购房的租房的韩国人，却开始一场噩梦。2021年8月随着韩国央行开始加息，房价开启了崩盘模式，首尔实际交易房价暴跌25%，部分社区更是跌了3-4成，跌幅达历史之最，成交量也暴跌超7成。房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。历来的地产危机告诉我们，背后地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。随着乐高乐园担保违约以及传出房地产贷款业务的券商面临倒闭，2022年10月，韩国金融当局出台了总额高达50万亿韩元的救市计划。同时又在今年年初放松了施加于房地产市场的史上最严调控。韩国楼市能不能在暴跌30%后安全着陆？“全租房”的杠杆游戏和历史上所有房地产故事一样，韩国也始于熟悉的配方。2016年欧债危机蔓延到韩国出口需求，韩国将基准利率由3.25%下调至1.25%，成为这轮房地产上行的起点。而2020年疫情的爆发，韩国更是将基准利率降到了0.5%。韩国房价直接飞起。值得一提的是，前韩国总统文在寅也曾努力想要刹住房价这辆高速行驶的车。他在任的四年间，搞了大大小小28项调控措施，堪称史上最强调控。然而这些，在上涨的房价面前，不但不堪一击，甚至还对房价的上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。韩国房价“越调越涨”背后不仅是炒房房东的贪婪，是普通民众的焦虑，还是海外投资者的煽风点火。而韩国“全租房”的制度，更是通过扩大杠杆对房价带来助涨助跌的效果。“全租房”即租客一次性缴纳房价五到八成的押金即可入住，期间不用支付租金，到约定期满后，房东退还租客全部押金。在房价上涨的时候，房东可以利用住房吸引租客的押金，投资更多房地产，放大杠杆增加收入。而租客也可以去银行贷款付全租押金，每月支付利息。支付的利息只有普通月租的1/4，甚至更低。这种模式在低利率和房价上涨时看似两全其美。但问题是，房东拿到押金继续买房，过度的杠杆把房价炒到了过高的水平。租客靠着银行贷款，低息租房本以为可以攒点钱自己买房，但越来越高的房价始终超过可承受范围。就在双方不停加杠杆的基础上，加息永远是一剂后劲十足的猛药。2021年8月至2022年7月，韩国六次加息。随着贷款利率上升，一方面房东的还贷成本增加，同时租客贷款的负担也日益加重。当租客想要回押金时，很多房东却由于连环炒房（A租客的押金付B房的首付，B房的押金付C房的首付……），或者无法寻到新的租客，无法退回押金，只能选择卖房，卖房的越来越多，房地产泡沫便开始破裂。2022年韩国发生了2073起全租房保证金并吞案，涉及金额达到7千多亿韩元。手握巨额押金的房东们资金链断裂，拿不回押金的租客们却还要继续高息还贷。韩国有专家预计今年的全租押金损失最多将达到1兆8千亿韩元的损失，房价雪崩的势头难以扼制。冰山下的黑影而历来的地产危机告诉我们，购房者资金断裂，租客血本无归从来不是楼市噩梦的全部。冰山下更深的黑影，还有地产金融链条的崩塌和实体房企的破产。1、银行贷款拖欠2021年末韩国家庭信贷总额创下新高，达到1863万亿，两年新增262万亿。其中住房贷款要占到一半以上。而韩国房贷利率已经上调至7~8%的高位。上次韩国各银行房贷利率超过7%，还是在2007年。韩国家庭几乎80%的未偿贷款采用浮动利率，因此这对于普通购房人都已经是非常承重的压力，更不用说放杠杆的全租房买家了。韩国房源网站Zigbang计算，当抵押贷款年利率为4%，首尔公寓的月供将占城市居民平均可支配收入的45%。而当年利率上升到7%，月供将增加到可支配收入的60%-70%。韩国金融监管机构也预计，随着平均抵押贷款利率7%，拖欠贷款的人数或将增加50万至190万。2、开发商资不抵债随着创韩国楼市下跌的历史之最，同样大肆举债的房地产开发商开始陷入困局。韩国媒体援引调查指出，韩国30家大型建筑企业中有11家的负债率超过200%。韩国银行调查亦显示，已有约36％的房地产上市开发商的营业利润完全无法偿还利息，韩国房地产已经陷入流动性危机。而被地方政府担保、被视为没有风险的乐高乐园项目的违约，点燃了市场对开发商融资的全面担忧，甚至蔓延到整个企业债市场。韩国信贷市场迅速恶化，企业贷款难度直线上升。三个月内，评级最高的三年期韩国企业债券和国债的利差飙升至149个基点。韩国商业票据收益率也飙升至13年最高水平。企业融资一度陷入僵局。3、冰山下的影子金融韩国金融研究院报告显示，由于利率长期保持在低位，房地产影子金融已经达到750万亿韩元，刷新历史最高纪录，比2018年末增加88.6%之多。房地产影子金融是指游离于银行系统之外，不受健全法规制度限制的房产基金、信托和项目融资（PF）贷款等房产金融投资产品。PF甚至一度被投资者称为“下金蛋的鹅”。可随着市场景气急转直下和利率飙升影响，韩国银行表示，影子金融的风险敞口约占到总资产的30%左右，在100万-200万亿韩元。主要为各类保险、资产公司、证券公司、甚至退休基金等。其中保险在PF贷款上的风险敞口极大。截至去年9月底，银子金融系统的房地产项目融资拖欠率在9个月内上涨了2倍以上，证券公司的拖欠率上升到了8.2%。这些影子金融机构和银行系统也存在大量的过桥交易，一旦出现问题，风险可能传导至整个金融体系。韩国政府万亿救市随着乐高乐园违约事件的发酵和房地产金融链的枯竭，韩国金融当局于去年10月出台了50万亿救市计划（约合2534亿元人民币）。以扩大实施流动性供应，稳定国内的金融市场稳定。包括：在扩大2万亿低评级公司债购买的基础上，将20万亿韩元的稳定债券中注入1.6万亿韩元基金，与房地产项目相关的资产支持商业票据成为目标之一。把国有银行经营的公司债券购买额度的上限提高一倍，达到16万亿韩元（110亿美元）等，以恢复企业债券融资市场的流动性。同时韩国政府在去年年底至今年年初，放松了房地产市场的多项监管。包括：对首次购房者和拥有一套住房的人放宽贷款规定；对低总价购房人实施固定利率的贷款优惠；计划减免针对多套住宅拥有者的综合房地产税重课税率。将把首尔及其周边地区从密切关注的投机地区中删除；取消首都圈的“预售价格上限制度”等等。随着韩国当局及时介入，地产融资市场已经出现好转的迹象，今年3月企业债和国债的利差已经回落到去年初的较低水平。房价也有所企稳。据韩国不动产厅消息，3月首尔公寓实际成交价格指数环比上涨1.61%。（实际成交价格指数是仅汇总实际成交的公寓价格变动的统计数据。）尤其是江南3区（江南、瑞草、松坡）所属的东南地区涨幅最大。全国17个省市中，世宗市涨幅最大。不过，今年首尔的公寓交易了9795套，虽比年初有所复苏，但仍远低于往年同期，且集中在一些大面积地区。大部分公寓仍处于“0交易”状态。而挂牌待售房屋却显著增长，达到8年来的高点。专家表示，判断公寓价格触底交易量需要超过5000套/月均，这是过去五年的均值。韩国楼市噩梦结束了嘛？韩国楼市能不能平复取决于两个方面。一个是地产影子融资链的稳定，其次是购房需求的回暖。从地产融资链来看，目前地产开发建筑商负债率较高，盈利能力走弱是现实，需要不断地有资金补充进来，直到销售复苏。与此同时，地产影子金融近几年增长过快，一旦再度出现企业或项目违约，便极易诱发影子融资链的断裂。而从终端的购房需求来看，目前韩国的家庭负债杠杆（占GDP）已经达到了108%，远高于美国、中国、日本、欧元区76-60%左右的水平。据韩国银行资料，2020年以来的“恐慌性购房”，使得三十岁一档年轻人的家庭贷款剧烈增长。家庭贷款占收入比率大幅提升24个百分点至260%以上。严重透支了未来的消费的需求。在高企的债务和利率水平下，楼市成交量要显著复苏似乎更像是无根之木，无薪之火。而居民杠杆率过高时，总是要迎来清算的一天。是像美国那样通过次贷危机去杠杆，还是通过出口复苏增加收入去杠杆，亦或是通过货币宽松继续苟延残喘？因此，尽管当前在政府的大力救助下，韩国房地产危机暂时被掩盖了起来，但背后深层次的居民杠杆、开发商困局、影子金融等问题并没有任何改变。韩国的房地产市场不得不怀揣时刻爆雷的噩梦，直到去杠杆那一天的到来。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692160131,"gmtCreate":1640876190885,"gmtModify":1640876190885,"author":{"id":"3577148809834847","authorId":"3577148809834847","name":"锋页子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face663e13092af3b90db24c2405c16d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577148809834847","authorIdStr":"3577148809834847"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] 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Inc.(WISH)$都是11块的成本了，这些人卖撒！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183101129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692160131,"gmtCreate":1640876190885,"gmtModify":1640876190885,"author":{"id":"3577148809834847","authorId":"3577148809834847","name":"锋页子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face663e13092af3b90db24c2405c16d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577148809834847","authorIdStr":"3577148809834847"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692160131","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825619934,"gmtCreate":1634221228418,"gmtModify":1634221228418,"author":{"id":"3577148809834847","authorId":"3577148809834847","name":"锋页子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face663e13092af3b90db24c2405c16d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577148809834847","authorIdStr":"3577148809834847"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就没搞懂大家都夸钱放那不卖能这么跌嘛？","listText":"就没搞懂大家都夸钱放那不卖能这么跌嘛？","text":"就没搞懂大家都夸钱放那不卖能这么跌嘛？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825619934","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":652207259,"gmtCreate":1684555502871,"gmtModify":1684555504403,"author":{"id":"3577148809834847","authorId":"3577148809834847","name":"锋页子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face663e13092af3b90db24c2405c16d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577148809834847","authorIdStr":"3577148809834847"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/652207259","repostId":"1166675188","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166675188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684547136,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166675188?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-20 09:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"暴跌30%，韩国楼市的噩梦结束了么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166675188","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与全球第一的香港不相上下。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，2021年购房的租房的韩国人，却开始一场噩梦。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年8月随着韩国央行开始加息，房价开启了崩盘模式，首尔实际交易房价暴跌25%，部分社区更是跌了3-4成，跌幅达历史之最，成交量也暴跌超7成。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。历来的地产危机告诉我们，背后地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着乐高乐园担保违约以及传出房地产贷款业务的券商面临倒闭，2022年10月，韩国金融当局出台了总额高达50万亿韩元的救市计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时又在今年年初放松了施加于房地产市场的史上最严调控。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国楼市能不能在暴跌30%后安全着陆？</p><h2>“全租房”的杠杆游戏</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">和历史上所有房地产故事一样，韩国也始于熟悉的配方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年欧债危机蔓延到韩国出口需求，韩国将基准利率由3.25%下调至1.25%，成为这轮房地产上行的起点。而2020年疫情的爆发，韩国更是将基准利率降到了0.5%。韩国房价直接飞起。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得一提的是，前韩国总统文在寅也曾努力想要刹住房价这辆高速行驶的车。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他在任的四年间，搞了大大小小28项调控措施，堪称史上最强调控。然而这些，在上涨的房价面前，不但不堪一击，甚至还对房价的上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>韩国房价“越调越涨”背后不仅是炒房房东的贪婪，是普通民众的焦虑，还是海外投资者的煽风点火。而韩国“全租房”的制度，更是通过扩大杠杆对房价带来助涨助跌的效果。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“全租房”即租客一次性缴纳房价五到八成的押金即可入住，期间不用支付租金，到约定期满后，房东退还租客全部押金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在房价上涨的时候，房东可以利用住房吸引租客的押金，投资更多房地产，放大杠杆增加收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而租客也可以去银行贷款付全租押金，每月支付利息。支付的利息只有普通月租的1/4，甚至更低。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec5b5d2eea7748c740a6cc8391b87c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这种模式在低利率和房价上涨时看似两全其美。</strong>但问题是，房东拿到押金继续买房，过度的杠杆把房价炒到了过高的水平。租客靠着银行贷款，低息租房本以为可以攒点钱自己买房，但越来越高的房价始终超过可承受范围。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>就在双方不停加杠杆的基础上，加息永远是一剂后劲十足的猛药。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年8月至2022年7月，韩国六次加息。随着贷款利率上升，一方面房东的还贷成本增加，同时租客贷款的负担也日益加重。当租客想要回押金时，很多房东却由于连环炒房（A租客的押金付B房的首付，B房的押金付C房的首付……），或者无法寻到新的租客，无法退回押金，只能选择卖房，卖房的越来越多，房地产泡沫便开始破裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2022年韩国发生了2073起全租房保证金并吞案，涉及金额达到7千多亿韩元。<strong>手握巨额押金的房东们资金链断裂，拿不回押金的租客们却还要继续高息还贷。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国有专家预计今年的全租押金损失最多将达到1兆8千亿韩元的损失，房价雪崩的势头难以扼制。</p><h2>冰山下的黑影</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而历来的地产危机告诉我们，购房者资金断裂，租客血本无归从来不是楼市噩梦的全部。冰山下更深的黑影，还有地产金融链条的崩塌和实体房企的破产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1、银行贷款拖欠</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年末韩国家庭信贷总额创下新高，达到1863万亿，两年新增262万亿。其中住房贷款要占到一半以上。而韩国房贷利率已经上调至7~8%的高位。上次韩国各银行房贷利率超过7%，还是在2007年。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d2576fc1d3e21234a49dbcf7cdc5151\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"297\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国家庭几乎80%的未偿贷款采用浮动利率，因此这对于普通购房人都已经是非常承重的压力，更不用说放杠杆的全租房买家了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国房源网站Zigbang计算，当抵押贷款年利率为4%，首尔公寓的月供将占城市居民平均可支配收入的45%。<strong>而当年利率上升到7%，月供将增加到可支配收入的60%-70%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国金融监管机构也预计，<strong>随着平均抵押贷款利率7%，拖欠贷款的人数或将增加50万至190万。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2、开发商资不抵债</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着创韩国楼市下跌的历史之最，同样大肆举债的房地产开发商开始陷入困局。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国媒体援引调查指出，<strong>韩国30家大型建筑企业中有11家的负债率超过200%。韩国银行调查亦显示，已有约36％的房地产上市开发商的营业利润完全无法偿还利息，</strong>韩国房地产已经陷入流动性危机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而被地方政府担保、被视为没有风险的乐高乐园项目的违约，点燃了市场对开发商融资的全面担忧，甚至蔓延到整个企业债市场。韩国信贷市场迅速恶化，企业贷款难度直线上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三个月内，<strong>评级最高的三年期韩国企业债券和国债的利差飙升至149个基点。</strong>韩国商业票据收益率也飙升至13年最高水平。企业融资一度陷入僵局。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e355734b83b1796f2aa1fc23d48cb18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3、冰山下的影子金融</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国金融研究院报告显示，由于利率长期保持在低位，<strong>房地产影子金融已经达到750万亿韩元，刷新历史最高纪录，比2018年末增加88.6%之多</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">房地产影子金融是指游离于银行系统之外，不受健全法规制度限制的房产基金、信托和项目融资（PF）贷款等房产金融投资产品。PF甚至一度被投资者称为“下金蛋的鹅”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">可随着市场景气急转直下和利率飙升影响，<strong>韩国银行表示，影子金融的风险敞口约占到总资产的30%左右，在100万-200万亿韩元。</strong>主要为各类保险、资产公司、证券公司、甚至退休基金等。<strong>其中保险在PF贷款上的风险敞口极大。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至去年9月底，银子金融系统的房地产项目融资拖欠率在9个月内上涨了2倍以上，证券公司的拖欠率上升到了8.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些影子<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>和银行系统也存在大量的过桥交易，一旦出现问题，风险可能传导至整个金融体系。</p><h2>韩国政府万亿救市</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着乐高乐园违约事件的发酵和房地产金融链的枯竭，<strong>韩国金融当局于去年10月出台了50万亿救市计划（约合2534亿元人民币）。</strong>以扩大实施流动性供应，稳定国内的金融市场稳定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">包括：在扩大2万亿低评级公司债购买的基础上，将20万亿韩元的稳定债券中注入1.6万亿韩元基金，与房地产项目相关的资产支持商业票据成为目标之一。把国有银行经营的公司债券购买额度的上限提高一倍，达到16万亿韩元（110亿美元）等，以恢复企业债券融资市场的流动性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>同时韩国政府在去年年底至今年年初，放松了房地产市场的多项监管。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">包括：对首次购房者和拥有一套住房的人放宽贷款规定；对低总价购房人实施固定利率的贷款优惠；计划减免针对多套住宅拥有者的综合房地产税重课税率。将把首尔及其周边地区从密切关注的投机地区中删除；取消首都圈的“预售价格上限制度”等等。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>随着韩国当局及时介入，地产融资市场已经出现好转的迹象，今年3月企业债和国债的利差已经回落到去年初的较低水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>房价也有所企稳。</strong>据韩国不动产厅消息，3月首尔公寓实际成交价格指数环比上涨1.61%。（实际成交价格指数是仅汇总实际成交的公寓价格变动的统计数据。）尤其是江南3区（江南、瑞草、松坡）所属的东南地区涨幅最大。全国17个省市中，世宗市涨幅最大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，今年首尔的公寓交易了9795套，<strong>虽比年初有所复苏，但仍远低于往年同期，</strong>且集中在一些大面积地区。大部分公寓仍处于“0交易”状态。而挂牌待售房屋却显著增长，达到8年来的高点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">专家表示，判断公寓价格触底交易量需要超过5000套/月均，这是过去五年的均值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf117108ca6a1246eb2e5e6ef347ca7\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><h2>韩国楼市噩梦结束了嘛？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国楼市能不能平复取决于两个方面。<strong>一个是地产影子融资链的稳定，其次是购房需求的回暖。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从地产融资链来看，目前地产开发建筑商负债率较高，盈利能力走弱是现实，需要不断地有资金补充进来，直到销售复苏。与此同时，地产影子金融近几年增长过快，一旦再度出现企业或项目违约，便极易诱发影子融资链的断裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而从终端的购房需求来看，<strong>目前韩国的家庭负债杠杆（占GDP）已经达到了108%，远高于美国、中国、日本、欧元区76-60%左右的水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据韩国银行资料，2020年以来的“恐慌性购房”，使得三十岁一档年轻人的家庭贷款剧烈增长。<strong>家庭贷款占收入比率大幅提升24个百分点至260%以上。</strong>严重透支了未来的消费的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在高企的债务和利率水平下，楼市成交量要显著复苏似乎更像是无根之木，无薪之火。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da75a8ad838b2c03a048bb446cd316ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>而居民杠杆率过高时，总是要迎来清算的一天。</strong>是像美国那样通过次贷危机去杠杆，还是通过出口复苏增加收入去杠杆，亦或是通过货币宽松继续苟延残喘？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，尽管当前在政府的大力救助下，韩国房地产危机暂时被掩盖了起来，但背后深层次的居民杠杆、开发商困局、影子金融等问题并没有任何改变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国的房地产市场不得不怀揣时刻爆雷的噩梦，直到去杠杆那一天的到来。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暴跌30%，韩国楼市的噩梦结束了么？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌30%，韩国楼市的噩梦结束了么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-20 09:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689152><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与全球第一的香港不相上下。然而，2021年购房的租房的韩国人，却开始一场噩梦。2021年8月随着韩国央行开始加息，房价开启了崩盘模式，首尔实际交易房价暴跌25%，部分社区更是跌了3-4成，跌幅达历史之最...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689152\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06998f098ca391e0a64edfd0497ec5c5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166675188","content_text":"房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。2020至2021年，韩国房价最大涨幅超过40%。首尔更是超过50%，房价一度达每平米14万人民币，与全球第一的香港不相上下。然而，2021年购房的租房的韩国人，却开始一场噩梦。2021年8月随着韩国央行开始加息，房价开启了崩盘模式，首尔实际交易房价暴跌25%，部分社区更是跌了3-4成，跌幅达历史之最，成交量也暴跌超7成。房东跑路，租客崩溃，这还不是楼市噩梦的全部。历来的地产危机告诉我们，背后地产金融链条的断裂和实体房企的破产，才是冰山下的黑影。随着乐高乐园担保违约以及传出房地产贷款业务的券商面临倒闭，2022年10月，韩国金融当局出台了总额高达50万亿韩元的救市计划。同时又在今年年初放松了施加于房地产市场的史上最严调控。韩国楼市能不能在暴跌30%后安全着陆？“全租房”的杠杆游戏和历史上所有房地产故事一样，韩国也始于熟悉的配方。2016年欧债危机蔓延到韩国出口需求，韩国将基准利率由3.25%下调至1.25%，成为这轮房地产上行的起点。而2020年疫情的爆发，韩国更是将基准利率降到了0.5%。韩国房价直接飞起。值得一提的是，前韩国总统文在寅也曾努力想要刹住房价这辆高速行驶的车。他在任的四年间，搞了大大小小28项调控措施，堪称史上最强调控。然而这些，在上涨的房价面前，不但不堪一击，甚至还对房价的上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。韩国房价“越调越涨”背后不仅是炒房房东的贪婪，是普通民众的焦虑，还是海外投资者的煽风点火。而韩国“全租房”的制度，更是通过扩大杠杆对房价带来助涨助跌的效果。“全租房”即租客一次性缴纳房价五到八成的押金即可入住，期间不用支付租金，到约定期满后，房东退还租客全部押金。在房价上涨的时候，房东可以利用住房吸引租客的押金，投资更多房地产，放大杠杆增加收入。而租客也可以去银行贷款付全租押金，每月支付利息。支付的利息只有普通月租的1/4，甚至更低。这种模式在低利率和房价上涨时看似两全其美。但问题是，房东拿到押金继续买房，过度的杠杆把房价炒到了过高的水平。租客靠着银行贷款，低息租房本以为可以攒点钱自己买房，但越来越高的房价始终超过可承受范围。就在双方不停加杠杆的基础上，加息永远是一剂后劲十足的猛药。2021年8月至2022年7月，韩国六次加息。随着贷款利率上升，一方面房东的还贷成本增加，同时租客贷款的负担也日益加重。当租客想要回押金时，很多房东却由于连环炒房（A租客的押金付B房的首付，B房的押金付C房的首付……），或者无法寻到新的租客，无法退回押金，只能选择卖房，卖房的越来越多，房地产泡沫便开始破裂。2022年韩国发生了2073起全租房保证金并吞案，涉及金额达到7千多亿韩元。手握巨额押金的房东们资金链断裂，拿不回押金的租客们却还要继续高息还贷。韩国有专家预计今年的全租押金损失最多将达到1兆8千亿韩元的损失，房价雪崩的势头难以扼制。冰山下的黑影而历来的地产危机告诉我们，购房者资金断裂，租客血本无归从来不是楼市噩梦的全部。冰山下更深的黑影，还有地产金融链条的崩塌和实体房企的破产。1、银行贷款拖欠2021年末韩国家庭信贷总额创下新高，达到1863万亿，两年新增262万亿。其中住房贷款要占到一半以上。而韩国房贷利率已经上调至7~8%的高位。上次韩国各银行房贷利率超过7%，还是在2007年。韩国家庭几乎80%的未偿贷款采用浮动利率，因此这对于普通购房人都已经是非常承重的压力，更不用说放杠杆的全租房买家了。韩国房源网站Zigbang计算，当抵押贷款年利率为4%，首尔公寓的月供将占城市居民平均可支配收入的45%。而当年利率上升到7%，月供将增加到可支配收入的60%-70%。韩国金融监管机构也预计，随着平均抵押贷款利率7%，拖欠贷款的人数或将增加50万至190万。2、开发商资不抵债随着创韩国楼市下跌的历史之最，同样大肆举债的房地产开发商开始陷入困局。韩国媒体援引调查指出，韩国30家大型建筑企业中有11家的负债率超过200%。韩国银行调查亦显示，已有约36％的房地产上市开发商的营业利润完全无法偿还利息，韩国房地产已经陷入流动性危机。而被地方政府担保、被视为没有风险的乐高乐园项目的违约，点燃了市场对开发商融资的全面担忧，甚至蔓延到整个企业债市场。韩国信贷市场迅速恶化，企业贷款难度直线上升。三个月内，评级最高的三年期韩国企业债券和国债的利差飙升至149个基点。韩国商业票据收益率也飙升至13年最高水平。企业融资一度陷入僵局。3、冰山下的影子金融韩国金融研究院报告显示，由于利率长期保持在低位，房地产影子金融已经达到750万亿韩元，刷新历史最高纪录，比2018年末增加88.6%之多。房地产影子金融是指游离于银行系统之外，不受健全法规制度限制的房产基金、信托和项目融资（PF）贷款等房产金融投资产品。PF甚至一度被投资者称为“下金蛋的鹅”。可随着市场景气急转直下和利率飙升影响，韩国银行表示，影子金融的风险敞口约占到总资产的30%左右，在100万-200万亿韩元。主要为各类保险、资产公司、证券公司、甚至退休基金等。其中保险在PF贷款上的风险敞口极大。截至去年9月底，银子金融系统的房地产项目融资拖欠率在9个月内上涨了2倍以上，证券公司的拖欠率上升到了8.2%。这些影子金融机构和银行系统也存在大量的过桥交易，一旦出现问题，风险可能传导至整个金融体系。韩国政府万亿救市随着乐高乐园违约事件的发酵和房地产金融链的枯竭，韩国金融当局于去年10月出台了50万亿救市计划（约合2534亿元人民币）。以扩大实施流动性供应，稳定国内的金融市场稳定。包括：在扩大2万亿低评级公司债购买的基础上，将20万亿韩元的稳定债券中注入1.6万亿韩元基金，与房地产项目相关的资产支持商业票据成为目标之一。把国有银行经营的公司债券购买额度的上限提高一倍，达到16万亿韩元（110亿美元）等，以恢复企业债券融资市场的流动性。同时韩国政府在去年年底至今年年初，放松了房地产市场的多项监管。包括：对首次购房者和拥有一套住房的人放宽贷款规定；对低总价购房人实施固定利率的贷款优惠；计划减免针对多套住宅拥有者的综合房地产税重课税率。将把首尔及其周边地区从密切关注的投机地区中删除；取消首都圈的“预售价格上限制度”等等。随着韩国当局及时介入，地产融资市场已经出现好转的迹象，今年3月企业债和国债的利差已经回落到去年初的较低水平。房价也有所企稳。据韩国不动产厅消息，3月首尔公寓实际成交价格指数环比上涨1.61%。（实际成交价格指数是仅汇总实际成交的公寓价格变动的统计数据。）尤其是江南3区（江南、瑞草、松坡）所属的东南地区涨幅最大。全国17个省市中，世宗市涨幅最大。不过，今年首尔的公寓交易了9795套，虽比年初有所复苏，但仍远低于往年同期，且集中在一些大面积地区。大部分公寓仍处于“0交易”状态。而挂牌待售房屋却显著增长，达到8年来的高点。专家表示，判断公寓价格触底交易量需要超过5000套/月均，这是过去五年的均值。韩国楼市噩梦结束了嘛？韩国楼市能不能平复取决于两个方面。一个是地产影子融资链的稳定，其次是购房需求的回暖。从地产融资链来看，目前地产开发建筑商负债率较高，盈利能力走弱是现实，需要不断地有资金补充进来，直到销售复苏。与此同时，地产影子金融近几年增长过快，一旦再度出现企业或项目违约，便极易诱发影子融资链的断裂。而从终端的购房需求来看，目前韩国的家庭负债杠杆（占GDP）已经达到了108%，远高于美国、中国、日本、欧元区76-60%左右的水平。据韩国银行资料，2020年以来的“恐慌性购房”，使得三十岁一档年轻人的家庭贷款剧烈增长。家庭贷款占收入比率大幅提升24个百分点至260%以上。严重透支了未来的消费的需求。在高企的债务和利率水平下，楼市成交量要显著复苏似乎更像是无根之木，无薪之火。而居民杠杆率过高时，总是要迎来清算的一天。是像美国那样通过次贷危机去杠杆，还是通过出口复苏增加收入去杠杆，亦或是通过货币宽松继续苟延残喘？因此，尽管当前在政府的大力救助下，韩国房地产危机暂时被掩盖了起来，但背后深层次的居民杠杆、开发商困局、影子金融等问题并没有任何改变。韩国的房地产市场不得不怀揣时刻爆雷的噩梦，直到去杠杆那一天的到来。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865731667,"gmtCreate":1633016766419,"gmtModify":1633016766419,"author":{"id":"3577148809834847","authorId":"3577148809834847","name":"锋页子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face663e13092af3b90db24c2405c16d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577148809834847","authorIdStr":"3577148809834847"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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