摘星星的牧羊犬的个人主页 - 老虎社区

摘星星的牧羊犬

摘星星的牧羊犬

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摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-18

$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$没中签，哭了

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-02-23

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$ˏ₍•ɞ•₎ˎ

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-02-24

啥意思？

抱歉，原内容已删除

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-15

$前程无忧(JOBS)$智联招聘你退市了，猎聘，你在港股上市，前程无忧，嘿嘿嘿[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-10-08

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

直播：特斯拉2021年股东大会

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-04-26

乌拉乌拉，乌拉！

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-25

寂寞。寂寞就好

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-23

打了个寂寞

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-20

777

抱歉，原内容已删除

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-20

6

抱歉，原内容已删除

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小虎ETF:杠杆类ETF的“坑”你知道吗

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-16

r(･x･)???

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-15

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-12

[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-09

$朝云集团(06601)$没中签。。。差点就是腥风血雨

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-08

=͟͟͞͞( 'ヮ' 三 'ヮ' =͟͟͞͞)　

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@老虎专刊:【老虎周刊】老虎社区一周十大精华文章

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@交易员Owen:为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-03-04

( •︠ˍ•︡ )

摘星星的牧羊犬

2021-02-20

昨晚做空老虎小赚一笔⸜₍๑•⌔•๑ ₎⸝

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://r.tigerbbs.com/lmxx\" target=\"_blank\">点击收听音频😊</a> 投资大师段永平说过他有两个账号，一个长线账号，一个短线账号。长线账号用来做价值投资，短线账号为了好玩。当人的大脑分泌多巴胺时就会感到愉悦。超短交易，波动极大，分泌的多巴胺更多，容易让人不知不觉地陷入交易的狂热。杠杆类的ETF产品似乎就是为了满足投资者的交易心理而开发的。 花花以 $纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ 为例，想告诉虎友们在好玩的交易中也要保持一份理性，投资是风险与收益并存的事！ TQQQ寻求在扣除费用前，每天的收益是纳斯达克100指数的3倍。 敲重点：这个3倍的收益是一天，而不是其他时间区间。也就是说超过一天的回报，将是每天回报的复合。那么TQQQ与基准指数，在拉长的周期中回报不会一直是3倍，甚至可能回报的方向都是相反的。 收益的复合计算影响所有投资，但对杠杆类基金的影响更大。随着指数波动性的增加，这种影响变得愈加明显。 我们来看张表格。图表显示了一年期间指数波动率与指数表现的一些组合估计的基金回报。(该估计有些假设：指数没有分红、基金没有费用、借贷利率为0%) （注：图表来自TQQQ的产品说明书。投资者在决定购买ETF产品前一定要仔细阅读各种条款风险提示哈） 阴影越深，表示基金预期回报不到指数业绩三倍的情形。例如，当指数的年化收益率为20%时，小白可能错误地预计基金年化回报率有60%。但如表所示在指数的年化波动率为50%时，预计的基金回报却是-18.4%。 随着年化波动率的增加，杠杆类ETF的风险急剧增加。截至2018年5月31日的五年期间，纳斯达克100指数的年化历史波动率为15.24 %。该指数在五年期间的最高五月至五月波动率是19.82 % ( 2016年5月31日)。还算在合理范围，但作为投资者我们很有必要了解糟糕的状况会","listText":"<a href=\"https://r.tigerbbs.com/lmxx\" target=\"_blank\">点击收听音频😊</a> 投资大师段永平说过他有两个账号，一个长线账号，一个短线账号。长线账号用来做价值投资，短线账号为了好玩。当人的大脑分泌多巴胺时就会感到愉悦。超短交易，波动极大，分泌的多巴胺更多，容易让人不知不觉地陷入交易的狂热。杠杆类的ETF产品似乎就是为了满足投资者的交易心理而开发的。 花花以 $纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ 为例，想告诉虎友们在好玩的交易中也要保持一份理性，投资是风险与收益并存的事！ TQQQ寻求在扣除费用前，每天的收益是纳斯达克100指数的3倍。 敲重点：这个3倍的收益是一天，而不是其他时间区间。也就是说超过一天的回报，将是每天回报的复合。那么TQQQ与基准指数，在拉长的周期中回报不会一直是3倍，甚至可能回报的方向都是相反的。 收益的复合计算影响所有投资，但对杠杆类基金的影响更大。随着指数波动性的增加，这种影响变得愈加明显。 我们来看张表格。图表显示了一年期间指数波动率与指数表现的一些组合估计的基金回报。(该估计有些假设：指数没有分红、基金没有费用、借贷利率为0%) （注：图表来自TQQQ的产品说明书。投资者在决定购买ETF产品前一定要仔细阅读各种条款风险提示哈） 阴影越深，表示基金预期回报不到指数业绩三倍的情形。例如，当指数的年化收益率为20%时，小白可能错误地预计基金年化回报率有60%。但如表所示在指数的年化波动率为50%时，预计的基金回报却是-18.4%。 随着年化波动率的增加，杠杆类ETF的风险急剧增加。截至2018年5月31日的五年期间，纳斯达克100指数的年化历史波动率为15.24 %。该指数在五年期间的最高五月至五月波动率是19.82 % ( 2016年5月31日)。还算在合理范围，但作为投资者我们很有必要了解糟糕的状况会","text":"点击收听音频😊 投资大师段永平说过他有两个账号，一个长线账号，一个短线账号。长线账号用来做价值投资，短线账号为了好玩。当人的大脑分泌多巴胺时就会感到愉悦。超短交易，波动极大，分泌的多巴胺更多，容易让人不知不觉地陷入交易的狂热。杠杆类的ETF产品似乎就是为了满足投资者的交易心理而开发的。 花花以 $纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ 为例，想告诉虎友们在好玩的交易中也要保持一份理性，投资是风险与收益并存的事！ TQQQ寻求在扣除费用前，每天的收益是纳斯达克100指数的3倍。 敲重点：这个3倍的收益是一天，而不是其他时间区间。也就是说超过一天的回报，将是每天回报的复合。那么TQQQ与基准指数，在拉长的周期中回报不会一直是3倍，甚至可能回报的方向都是相反的。 收益的复合计算影响所有投资，但对杠杆类基金的影响更大。随着指数波动性的增加，这种影响变得愈加明显。 我们来看张表格。图表显示了一年期间指数波动率与指数表现的一些组合估计的基金回报。(该估计有些假设：指数没有分红、基金没有费用、借贷利率为0%) （注：图表来自TQQQ的产品说明书。投资者在决定购买ETF产品前一定要仔细阅读各种条款风险提示哈） 阴影越深，表示基金预期回报不到指数业绩三倍的情形。例如，当指数的年化收益率为20%时，小白可能错误地预计基金年化回报率有60%。但如表所示在指数的年化波动率为50%时，预计的基金回报却是-18.4%。 随着年化波动率的增加，杠杆类ETF的风险急剧增加。截至2018年5月31日的五年期间，纳斯达克100指数的年化历史波动率为15.24 %。该指数在五年期间的最高五月至五月波动率是19.82 % ( 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[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322272219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322395923,"gmtCreate":1615772088362,"gmtModify":1703492705446,"author":{"id":"3576052168361072","authorId":"3576052168361072","name":"摘星星的牧羊犬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c337dfb90aeb87b652fd01cae485ada5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576052168361072","authorIdStr":"3576052168361072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] 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“老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/368676367\" target=\"_blank\">这时候要注意做好避险，我推荐三个策略</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3534312224764596\">@甘灿荣_交易所讲师及资管</a> 美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。 下周四晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。 现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/360588644\" target=\"_blank\">如何快速找潜力股？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573680037239051\">@财经龙眼</a> 很多小伙伴在问我是怎么找到我推荐的这些股票的，方法有很多。 我今天给大家介绍一种比较容易上手的扫股方法。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/369499508\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权数据筛选出高胜率高回报的异动期权</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3521339628608760\">@美股队长8</a> 这个数据网址是国外的网站，网站有部分免费功能，也有收费功能，收费功能分股票、期权和财报版块，今天主要讲的是期权版","listText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/368676367\" target=\"_blank\">这时候要注意做好避险，我推荐三个策略</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3534312224764596\">@甘灿荣_交易所讲师及资管</a> 美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。 下周四晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。 现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/360588644\" target=\"_blank\">如何快速找潜力股？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573680037239051\">@财经龙眼</a> 很多小伙伴在问我是怎么找到我推荐的这些股票的，方法有很多。 我今天给大家介绍一种比较容易上手的扫股方法。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/369499508\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权数据筛选出高胜率高回报的异动期权</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3521339628608760\">@美股队长8</a> 这个数据网址是国外的网站，网站有部分免费功能，也有收费功能，收费功能分股票、期权和财报版块，今天主要讲的是期权版","text":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： 这时候要注意做好避险，我推荐三个策略 发布者：@甘灿荣_交易所讲师及资管 美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。 下周四晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。 现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 如何快速找潜力股？ 发布者：@财经龙眼 很多小伙伴在问我是怎么找到我推荐的这些股票的，方法有很多。 我今天给大家介绍一种比较容易上手的扫股方法。 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但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","listText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","text":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么 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敲重点：这个3倍的收益是一天，而不是其他时间区间。也就是说超过一天的回报，将是每天回报的复合。那么TQQQ与基准指数，在拉长的周期中回报不会一直是3倍，甚至可能回报的方向都是相反的。 收益的复合计算影响所有投资，但对杠杆类基金的影响更大。随着指数波动性的增加，这种影响变得愈加明显。 我们来看张表格。图表显示了一年期间指数波动率与指数表现的一些组合估计的基金回报。(该估计有些假设：指数没有分红、基金没有费用、借贷利率为0%) （注：图表来自TQQQ的产品说明书。投资者在决定购买ETF产品前一定要仔细阅读各种条款风险提示哈） 阴影越深，表示基金预期回报不到指数业绩三倍的情形。例如，当指数的年化收益率为20%时，小白可能错误地预计基金年化回报率有60%。但如表所示在指数的年化波动率为50%时，预计的基金回报却是-18.4%。 随着年化波动率的增加，杠杆类ETF的风险急剧增加。截至2018年5月31日的五年期间，纳斯达克100指数的年化历史波动率为15.24 %。该指数在五年期间的最高五月至五月波动率是19.82 % ( 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“老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/368676367\" target=\"_blank\">这时候要注意做好避险，我推荐三个策略</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3534312224764596\">@甘灿荣_交易所讲师及资管</a> 美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。 下周四晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。 现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/360588644\" target=\"_blank\">如何快速找潜力股？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573680037239051\">@财经龙眼</a> 很多小伙伴在问我是怎么找到我推荐的这些股票的，方法有很多。 我今天给大家介绍一种比较容易上手的扫股方法。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/369499508\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权数据筛选出高胜率高回报的异动期权</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3521339628608760\">@美股队长8</a> 这个数据网址是国外的网站，网站有部分免费功能，也有收费功能，收费功能分股票、期权和财报版块，今天主要讲的是期权版","listText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/368676367\" target=\"_blank\">这时候要注意做好避险，我推荐三个策略</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3534312224764596\">@甘灿荣_交易所讲师及资管</a> 美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。 下周四晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。 现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/360588644\" target=\"_blank\">如何快速找潜力股？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573680037239051\">@财经龙眼</a> 很多小伙伴在问我是怎么找到我推荐的这些股票的，方法有很多。 我今天给大家介绍一种比较容易上手的扫股方法。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/369499508\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权数据筛选出高胜率高回报的异动期权</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3521339628608760\">@美股队长8</a> 这个数据网址是国外的网站，网站有部分免费功能，也有收费功能，收费功能分股票、期权和财报版块，今天主要讲的是期权版","text":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： 这时候要注意做好避险，我推荐三个策略 发布者：@甘灿荣_交易所讲师及资管 美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。 下周四晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。 现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 如何快速找潜力股？ 发布者：@财经龙眼 很多小伙伴在问我是怎么找到我推荐的这些股票的，方法有很多。 我今天给大家介绍一种比较容易上手的扫股方法。 如何用期权数据筛选出高胜率高回报的异动期权 发布者：@美股队长8 这个数据网址是国外的网站，网站有部分免费功能，也有收费功能，收费功能分股票、期权和财报版块，今天主要讲的是期权版","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0a31a329393b0b342956e14cca4fb4","width":"600","height":"418"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400ac68e9115789e22cff8a2745a7b85","width":"649","height":"596"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f54d1dd107fbd9a2aa1f9bc78c14e31","width":"604","height":"368"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366146922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367744220,"gmtCreate":1614982978860,"gmtModify":1703483889283,"author":{"id":"3576052168361072","authorId":"3576052168361072","name":"摘星星的牧羊犬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c337dfb90aeb87b652fd01cae485ada5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576052168361072","authorIdStr":"3576052168361072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367744220","repostId":"368545133","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":368545133,"gmtCreate":1614342217720,"gmtModify":1703476627398,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系","htmlText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","listText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","text":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么 国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3fbb1fc92c3ad45ccb74beee9bbd7","width":"1245","height":"687"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd734dfde270e96a7e2f384139ab2a67","width":"532","height":"377"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4674893cbdcc73f158470c94a3e1f9de","width":"838","height":"484"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368545133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364351946,"gmtCreate":1614817769185,"gmtModify":1703481485018,"author":{"id":"3576052168361072","authorId":"3576052168361072","name":"摘星星的牧羊犬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c337dfb90aeb87b652fd01cae485ada5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576052168361072","authorIdStr":"3576052168361072"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"( 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