逍遥谷古月轩的个人主页 - 老虎社区

逍遥谷古月轩

逍遥谷古月轩

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逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-30

$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ 好

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$未来能达到多少呢？

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-23

$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ 不知今天股价能否破94

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$那些看空500的酸葡萄不知哪里去了

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$900强力支撑

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-14

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

抱歉，原内容已删除

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-07

$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 这种股况还是稳稳的

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-12-01

$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$超出预期继续看涨中期缺芯都是利好芯片股$AMD(AMD)$$英伟达(NVDA)$

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-29

$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$能走得多远呢

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-26

继续看多到12月

@美股投资网:美股 GFS 有解决全球芯片短缺的方案

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

重温彼得·林奇！55条金句曝出哪些投资秘笈？

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-19

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@OptionPlus:赌场迎新，Rivian推出期权，如何用期权赌Rivian和Lucid？

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-18

$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$先长后短先大后小做生不做熟

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-17

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

抱歉，原内容已删除

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-16

$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$没事

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-11

$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 继续持有

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-10

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 估值过高逢低买入

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-09

恭喜$特斯拉(TSLA)$哈哈哈哈哈哈

盘前异动：特斯拉“新生意”获批！元宇宙第一股暴涨21%

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-08

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ 加油

逍遥谷古月轩

2021-11-08

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$这星期望突破

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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(IPO) 上市，目前已经宣布与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$福特汽车(F)$</a>&nbsp;合作，GFS 股价有望走高。由于大流行和消费者对个人电脑、平板电脑和手机等科技产品的偏好，全球芯片短缺，在封锁期间在家工作等新趋势的兴起加剧了这种短缺。并使租车、购买 PlayStation 5或做几乎任何涉及计算机的其他事情变得更加困难。你可能会认为电子和汽车等行业所用芯片的供需失衡为GFS创造了竞争优势。但是并非这样，答案是双重的。全球芯片短缺将持续到 2022 年年中研究和咨询公司Gartner（代号：IT）在一份新闻稿中提到，“全球半导体短缺将持续到 2021 年，预计到 2022 年第二季度将恢复到正常水平。”造成这种全球芯片短缺的原因可能是各类企业的计划不周。国际数据公司 (IDC) 半导体集团项目副总裁Mario Morales表示：“当你对大流行感到震惊时，如果没有业务连续性计划，就很难运营。”美国对其他国家实施的贸易制裁以及手机的 5G 推出是加剧全球芯片短缺的其他原因。在这种环境下，GFS正在大力投资以结束全球芯片短缺——通过提高生产力以及与福特战略联盟。福特、格芯宣布异业结盟GFS于 2021 年 11 月 18 日宣布，已与福特建立重要合作伙伴关系。它提到，该合作伙伴关系是“推动美国境内半导体制造和技术发展的战略合作，旨在促进福特和美国汽车行业的芯片供应。”它还表示，“两家公司签署了一项不具约束力的协议，","text":"$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 提供代工服务并制造半导体。它提供全球班车、面具、后制造和交钥匙服务。该公司于今年 10 月底通过首次公开募股 (IPO) 上市，目前已经宣布与$福特汽车(F)$ 合作，GFS 股价有望走高。由于大流行和消费者对个人电脑、平板电脑和手机等科技产品的偏好，全球芯片短缺，在封锁期间在家工作等新趋势的兴起加剧了这种短缺。并使租车、购买 PlayStation 5或做几乎任何涉及计算机的其他事情变得更加困难。你可能会认为电子和汽车等行业所用芯片的供需失衡为GFS创造了竞争优势。但是并非这样，答案是双重的。全球芯片短缺将持续到 2022 年年中研究和咨询公司Gartner（代号：IT）在一份新闻稿中提到，“全球半导体短缺将持续到 2021 年，预计到 2022 年第二季度将恢复到正常水平。”造成这种全球芯片短缺的原因可能是各类企业的计划不周。国际数据公司 (IDC) 半导体集团项目副总裁Mario Morales表示：“当你对大流行感到震惊时，如果没有业务连续性计划，就很难运营。”美国对其他国家实施的贸易制裁以及手机的 5G 推出是加剧全球芯片短缺的其他原因。在这种环境下，GFS正在大力投资以结束全球芯片短缺——通过提高生产力以及与福特战略联盟。福特、格芯宣布异业结盟GFS于 2021 年 11 月 18 日宣布，已与福特建立重要合作伙伴关系。它提到，该合作伙伴关系是“推动美国境内半导体制造和技术发展的战略合作，旨在促进福特和美国汽车行业的芯片供应。”它还表示，“两家公司签署了一项不具约束力的协议，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae5fd2ae29aacff71a1c661c4db8536","width":"552","height":"610"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/662ff7aeaebfba8862a68a330c609a94","width":"688","height":"481"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d707697cec38fc6f36d6b1e6c6e06e","width":"688","height":"397"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874473898","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877995408,"gmtCreate":1637855218057,"gmtModify":1637855218129,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877995408","repostId":"1122601482","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122601482","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"走近最优秀的投资人，聆听客观表达的理性声音，只做最好的原创财富资讯，洞见独立思想，回归资本常识。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"聪明投资者","id":"1072656223","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f"},"pubTimestamp":1637829942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122601482?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 16:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"重温彼得·林奇！55条金句曝出哪些投资秘笈？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122601482","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"对于国内众多成名的基金经理而言，彼得·林奇是开启投资之路的导师。\n他在管理麦哲伦基金的13年间基金规模同期增长了27倍，平均收益率达到了29％，创下有史以来最高基金业绩的神话。\n但即便是投成长股的彼得","content":"<p>对于国内众多成名的基金经理而言，彼得·林奇是开启投资之路的导师。</p>\n<p>他在管理麦哲伦基金的13年间基金规模同期增长了27倍，平均收益率达到了29％，创下有史以来最高基金业绩的神话。</p>\n<p>但即便是投成长股的彼得·林奇，也强调不要买市盈率太高的股票，他说：“除了极少数例外情况，特别高的市盈率是股价上涨的障碍，正如特别重的马鞍是赛马奔跑的障碍一样。”</p>\n<p>林奇称：“一般来说，如果一家公司的股票市盈率只有收益増长率的一半，那么这只股票赚钱的可能性就相当大，如果股票市盈率是收益增长率的两倍，那么这只股票亏钱的可能就非常大。在为基金进行选股时我们一直使用这个指标来进行股票分析。”</p>\n<p>今年以来市场上蒸蒸日上的新能源，如果我们去看它的估值，新能源汽车ETF市盈率已经达到241.16，新能源ETF市盈率也达到了77.81。</p>\n<p>这确实是一个很吓人的数字。只有你非常看好它长远未来的成长，才能解释在当下这个估值去买入的行为。</p>\n<p>正如彼得·林奇在他的书中反反复复强调的，你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它。</p>\n<p>他也说，只要快速增长型公司的收益继续增长、规模继续扩张，并且没有出现影响公司增长的障碍，就会继续持有这些快速增长型公司的股票。</p>\n<p><b>归根结底，还是来自于公司本身是否具有持续增长的能力，在于自己对于公司的研究是否足够深入，以及购买时的决定是否来自更长远的时间维度。</b></p>\n<p>在《彼得·林奇的成功投资》一书中，林奇用通俗易懂的方式，详细分享了他那些年的经典投资案例，他也鼓励业余投资者在自己擅长的领域去投资。</p>\n<p>近期重读林奇三本经典之作，摘取其中最有启发的55句金句，分享给大家。</p>\n<p><b>不要拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草</b></p>\n<p><b>1，</b>抛掉赚钱的好股票，抱着亏钱的差股票，无异于拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草。</p>\n<p><b>2，</b>卖出赔钱的股票，让赚钱的股票多跑一会儿。</p>\n<p><b>3，</b>只要快速增长型公司的收益继续增长、规模继续扩张，并且没有出现影响公司增长的障碍，我就会继续持有这些快速增长型公司的股票。</p>\n<p><b>4，</b>如果是在两只快速增长型公司股票之间进行选择，我发现，其中一只股票已经上涨了50%但公司发展前景让我感到怀疑，而另一只股票已经下跌或者基本没动但公司发展前景更好，那么我会卖出前一只股票然后将资金用来增持后一只。</p>\n<p><b>5，</b>我对周期型公司股票和困境反转型公司股票也是这样进行投资操作。卖出那些基本面恶化并且股价上涨的股票，把资金用来增加买入那些基本面好转并且股价下跌的股票。</p>\n<p><b>如果你明白自己购买某只股票的初衷</b></p>\n<p><b>你自然知道对它说再见的合理时机</b></p>\n<p><b>6，</b>投资周期性股票就像玩21点扑克牌游戏：如果赌得太久，最终会把赢来的钱再输光。</p>\n<p><b>7，</b>快速增长型股票的卖出技巧是不要过早卖出而错失一只未来会上涨10倍的大牛股。</p>\n<p><b>8，</b>如果你明白自己购买某只股票的初衷，你自然知道对它说再见的合理时机。</p>\n<p><b>9，</b>耐心固然是美德，但<b>如果你持有盛年不再的股票，你的忍耐未必终有所获。</b></p>\n<p><b>10，</b>要治疗那些觉得自己的股票肯定会大涨的幻想，最好的药方是股价下跌。</p>\n<p><b>11，</b>如果一家公司基本面没有改变，仅仅因为“股价不可能再涨”就放弃持有这家公司的股票实在是太糟糕了。</p>\n<p><b>“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠</b></p>\n<p><b>12，</b>在选择一只新股票时要认真研究分析，至少应该与你选择一台新冰箱所花的时间和精力一样多。</p>\n<p><b>13，</b>不进行研究的投资，就像打扑克从不看牌一样，必然失败。</p>\n<p><b>14，</b>你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它，“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠。</p>\n<p><b>15，</b>想在平静怡人的环境中找到大牛股，如同侦探呆坐在沙发上就想找到破案线索，几乎是不可能的。</p>\n<p><b>16，</b>持有股票就像养孩子，不要超出力所能及的范围。业余投资者大概能追踪8-12家公司，但不要同时拥有5只以上的股票。</p>\n<p><b>17，</b>如果你考察10家公司，你可能会找到一家有意思的股票，如果你考察20家，可能会找到2只，考察100家就可能会找到10只。考察的公司最多的人将在投资这场游戏中取胜。</p>\n<p><b>18，</b>公司发展是动态的，公司发展前景是变化的，根本<b>没有任何一只你可以不管不问只需一直持有的股票。</b></p>\n<p><b>“任何傻瓜都能经营这项业务”</b></p>\n<p><b>是理想公司的一个特点</b></p>\n<p><b>19，</b>如果你购买股票的唯一原因是因为你觉得它的价格将上涨，那么你不应该买入。</p>\n<p><b>20，</b>“任何傻瓜都能经营这项业务”是理想公司的一个特点，而这种公司的股票正是我梦寐以求的。</p>\n<p><b>21，</b>以更高的价格购买一家优秀公司股票，要好于用便宜的价格购买所谓能成为下一个这家优秀公司的公司。</p>\n<p><b>22，</b>分析师都感到厌烦之日，正是最佳买入之时。</p>\n<p><b>23，</b>在股票市场上，一鸟在手胜过十鸟在林。</p>\n<p><b>24，</b>如果你预测某家公司能够从某一种特定产品获利的话，那么你应该考虑一下公司总销售收入的规模，计算一下这种产品销售收入在公司总收入中所占的比重。</p>\n<p><b>25，</b>寻找那些已经盈利并且事实证明它们能够在其他地方复制其经营理念取得成功的小公司。</p>\n<p><b>26，</b>在公司第一轮业绩上涨时最好不要盲目买入，等等看公司的扩张计划是否确实有效再做决定更为稳妥。</p>\n<p><b>27，</b>在不增长行业中增长速度适中的公司（收益増长率为20%-25%）是十分理想的股票投资对象。</p>\n<p><b>28，</b>管理能力也许非常重要，但是管理能力很难进行评估。购买某一家公司股票的依据应该建立在公司发展前景之上，而不是建立在公司总裁的履历或者演讲能力之上。</p>\n<p><b>仔细考虑市盈率的高低</b></p>\n<p><b>避开热门行业的热门股票</b></p>\n<p><b>29，</b>仔细考虑市盈率的高低。如果股票价格被严重高估，即使公司其他情况都很好，你也不可能从这种股票上赚到一分钱。</p>\n<p><b>30，</b>期望从稳定増长型股票中找到一只10倍股是亳无意义的。如果一只稳定增长型股票的股价线超过收益线，或者市盈率远远超过正常市盈率水平，你应该考虑卖出这只股票，等股价回落后再买回来，或者买入其他没有上涨的稳定增长型股票。</p>\n<p><b>31，</b>特别要小心那些年收益增长率高达50%-100%的公司，一定要用怀疑的眼光进行分析。</p>\n<p><b>32，</b>避开热门行业的热门股票。最好的公司也会有不景气的时候，增长停滞的行业里有大赢家。</p>\n<p><b>33，</b>不要相信多元化经营，事实证明多元化经营往往反而会导致公司经营状况恶化。</p>\n<p><b>34，</b>那些一旦成功将获得巨大回报但只有微小成功机会的投资冒险几乎从来都不会成功。</p>\n<p><b>35，当人们把某只股票吹成某某第二时，这表明不仅这只“某某第二”的股票牛气将尽，而且那只某某股票也将成为明日黄花。</b></p>\n<p><b>36，</b>怀疑时，等等看。</p>\n<p><b>股价下跌正是追加买入</b></p>\n<p><b>质优价廉好股票的大好时机</b></p>\n<p><b>37，</b>一只好股票价格下跌并不是什么痛苦的悲剧，除非你是在下跌后低价卖出，而不是更多地追加买入。</p>\n<p>对我来说，<b>股价下跌正是追加买入质优价廉好股票的大好时机</b>，你应该从那些未来具有很大上涨可能性但目前股价表现最差或者远远落后的股票中选择进一步追加买入。</p>\n<p><b>38，</b>如果你不能说服自己坚持“当我的股票下跌25%时我就追加买入”的正确信念，以及戒除“当我的股票下跌25%我就卖出”的毁灭性错误信念，那么你永远不可能从股票投资上获得什么像样的回报。</p>\n<p><b>39，</b>股市暴跌有点可怕，但你要问自己，下跌是否将导致人们不再买车、买房、买家用电器，不再去餐厅吃饭？</p>\n<p><b>40，</b>股市大跌其实是好事，让我们又有一次好机会以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票。</p>\n<p><b>41，</b>成熟的选股者和股市下跌的关系，就像明尼苏达州的居民和寒冷天气的关系一样。你知道股市大跌总会发生，也为安然度过股市大跌事前做好了准备。</p>\n<p><b>42，</b>下跌正是好机会，去捡那些慌忙逃离风暴的投资者丢下的廉价货。</p>\n<p><b>43，</b>当10个人宁愿与牙医谈论治疗牙斑的事情而不愿与一个共同基金经理人谈论股票时，很有可能股市将要止跌反弹了。</p>\n<p><b>想要抄底买入一只下跌的股票</b></p>\n<p><b>就如同想要抓住一把下跌的刀子</b></p>\n<p><b>44，</b>黎明之前总是最黑暗的，但有时在最后变得一片漆黑之前也总是最黑暗的。</p>\n<p><b>45，</b>抄底买入，就像把鱼钩放到水底钓大鱼，是一种最流行的投资娱乐活动，但往往被钓住的并不是鱼而是渔夫。</p>\n<p><b>46，</b>想要抄底买入一只下跌的股票，就如同想要抓住一把下跌的刀子。通常来说一个更稳妥的办法是，等刀落到地上后，扎进地里，晃来晃去了一阵后停止不动了，这时再抓起这把刀子也不退。</p>\n<p><b>47，</b>想要抓住一只迅速下跌的股票抄底买入，不但抄不到底，可能连你的老底儿都会输个精光。</p>\n<p>因为你在错以为是底部的价位买入，其实根本不是底部，离真正的底部还远着呢。就像想抓住一把迅速下坠的刀子，不但抓不住，反而会伤到手导致剧烈的疼痛，因为你抓错了地方。</p>\n<p><b>48，</b>如果你对困境反转型股票感兴趣的话，你应该找到一个更加充分的买入理由，而不是因为这只股票已经下跌这么多了，所以看起来可能会反弹。</p>\n<p><b>49，</b>卖出一只困境反转型股票的最佳时机是在公司成功转危为安之后，所有的困难都已经得到解决，并且每个投资者都知道这家公司已经东山再起了。</p>\n<p><b>试图通过选时来躲开熊市的同时</b></p>\n<p><b>往往也错过了与牛市共舞的机会</b></p>\n<p><b>50，</b>试图通过选时来躲开熊市的同时，往往也错过了与牛市共舞的机会。</p>\n<p><b>51，</b>听到有人预测市场走势的时候，最重要的技巧不是静静聆听，而是打起呼噜睡大觉。</p>\n<p><b>52，</b>投资的窍门不是要学会相信自己内心的感觉，而是要约束自己不去理会内心的感觉。（已收录《2022投资日历》，点击了解详情）</p>\n<p><b>53，</b>想着一旦赌赢就会大赚一把，于是大赌一把，结果往往会大输一把。</p>\n<p><b>54，</b>最优秀的投资者的智商既不属于智商最高的那3%，也不属于最差的10%，而是在两者之间。</p>\n<p><b>55，</b>在股票市场的投资只限于你承受得起的损失数量，即使这笔损失真的发生了，也不会对你的日常生活产生任何影响。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重温彼得·林奇！55条金句曝出哪些投资秘笈？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-25 16:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>对于国内众多成名的基金经理而言，彼得·林奇是开启投资之路的导师。</p>\n<p>他在管理麦哲伦基金的13年间基金规模同期增长了27倍，平均收益率达到了29％，创下有史以来最高基金业绩的神话。</p>\n<p>但即便是投成长股的彼得·林奇，也强调不要买市盈率太高的股票，他说：“除了极少数例外情况，特别高的市盈率是股价上涨的障碍，正如特别重的马鞍是赛马奔跑的障碍一样。”</p>\n<p>林奇称：“一般来说，如果一家公司的股票市盈率只有收益増长率的一半，那么这只股票赚钱的可能性就相当大，如果股票市盈率是收益增长率的两倍，那么这只股票亏钱的可能就非常大。在为基金进行选股时我们一直使用这个指标来进行股票分析。”</p>\n<p>今年以来市场上蒸蒸日上的新能源，如果我们去看它的估值，新能源汽车ETF市盈率已经达到241.16，新能源ETF市盈率也达到了77.81。</p>\n<p>这确实是一个很吓人的数字。只有你非常看好它长远未来的成长，才能解释在当下这个估值去买入的行为。</p>\n<p>正如彼得·林奇在他的书中反反复复强调的，你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它。</p>\n<p>他也说，只要快速增长型公司的收益继续增长、规模继续扩张，并且没有出现影响公司增长的障碍，就会继续持有这些快速增长型公司的股票。</p>\n<p><b>归根结底，还是来自于公司本身是否具有持续增长的能力，在于自己对于公司的研究是否足够深入，以及购买时的决定是否来自更长远的时间维度。</b></p>\n<p>在《彼得·林奇的成功投资》一书中，林奇用通俗易懂的方式，详细分享了他那些年的经典投资案例，他也鼓励业余投资者在自己擅长的领域去投资。</p>\n<p>近期重读林奇三本经典之作，摘取其中最有启发的55句金句，分享给大家。</p>\n<p><b>不要拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草</b></p>\n<p><b>1，</b>抛掉赚钱的好股票，抱着亏钱的差股票，无异于拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草。</p>\n<p><b>2，</b>卖出赔钱的股票，让赚钱的股票多跑一会儿。</p>\n<p><b>3，</b>只要快速增长型公司的收益继续增长、规模继续扩张，并且没有出现影响公司增长的障碍，我就会继续持有这些快速增长型公司的股票。</p>\n<p><b>4，</b>如果是在两只快速增长型公司股票之间进行选择，我发现，其中一只股票已经上涨了50%但公司发展前景让我感到怀疑，而另一只股票已经下跌或者基本没动但公司发展前景更好，那么我会卖出前一只股票然后将资金用来增持后一只。</p>\n<p><b>5，</b>我对周期型公司股票和困境反转型公司股票也是这样进行投资操作。卖出那些基本面恶化并且股价上涨的股票，把资金用来增加买入那些基本面好转并且股价下跌的股票。</p>\n<p><b>如果你明白自己购买某只股票的初衷</b></p>\n<p><b>你自然知道对它说再见的合理时机</b></p>\n<p><b>6，</b>投资周期性股票就像玩21点扑克牌游戏：如果赌得太久，最终会把赢来的钱再输光。</p>\n<p><b>7，</b>快速增长型股票的卖出技巧是不要过早卖出而错失一只未来会上涨10倍的大牛股。</p>\n<p><b>8，</b>如果你明白自己购买某只股票的初衷，你自然知道对它说再见的合理时机。</p>\n<p><b>9，</b>耐心固然是美德，但<b>如果你持有盛年不再的股票，你的忍耐未必终有所获。</b></p>\n<p><b>10，</b>要治疗那些觉得自己的股票肯定会大涨的幻想，最好的药方是股价下跌。</p>\n<p><b>11，</b>如果一家公司基本面没有改变，仅仅因为“股价不可能再涨”就放弃持有这家公司的股票实在是太糟糕了。</p>\n<p><b>“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠</b></p>\n<p><b>12，</b>在选择一只新股票时要认真研究分析，至少应该与你选择一台新冰箱所花的时间和精力一样多。</p>\n<p><b>13，</b>不进行研究的投资，就像打扑克从不看牌一样，必然失败。</p>\n<p><b>14，</b>你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它，“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠。</p>\n<p><b>15，</b>想在平静怡人的环境中找到大牛股，如同侦探呆坐在沙发上就想找到破案线索，几乎是不可能的。</p>\n<p><b>16，</b>持有股票就像养孩子，不要超出力所能及的范围。业余投资者大概能追踪8-12家公司，但不要同时拥有5只以上的股票。</p>\n<p><b>17，</b>如果你考察10家公司，你可能会找到一家有意思的股票，如果你考察20家，可能会找到2只，考察100家就可能会找到10只。考察的公司最多的人将在投资这场游戏中取胜。</p>\n<p><b>18，</b>公司发展是动态的，公司发展前景是变化的，根本<b>没有任何一只你可以不管不问只需一直持有的股票。</b></p>\n<p><b>“任何傻瓜都能经营这项业务”</b></p>\n<p><b>是理想公司的一个特点</b></p>\n<p><b>19，</b>如果你购买股票的唯一原因是因为你觉得它的价格将上涨，那么你不应该买入。</p>\n<p><b>20，</b>“任何傻瓜都能经营这项业务”是理想公司的一个特点，而这种公司的股票正是我梦寐以求的。</p>\n<p><b>21，</b>以更高的价格购买一家优秀公司股票，要好于用便宜的价格购买所谓能成为下一个这家优秀公司的公司。</p>\n<p><b>22，</b>分析师都感到厌烦之日，正是最佳买入之时。</p>\n<p><b>23，</b>在股票市场上，一鸟在手胜过十鸟在林。</p>\n<p><b>24，</b>如果你预测某家公司能够从某一种特定产品获利的话，那么你应该考虑一下公司总销售收入的规模，计算一下这种产品销售收入在公司总收入中所占的比重。</p>\n<p><b>25，</b>寻找那些已经盈利并且事实证明它们能够在其他地方复制其经营理念取得成功的小公司。</p>\n<p><b>26，</b>在公司第一轮业绩上涨时最好不要盲目买入，等等看公司的扩张计划是否确实有效再做决定更为稳妥。</p>\n<p><b>27，</b>在不增长行业中增长速度适中的公司（收益増长率为20%-25%）是十分理想的股票投资对象。</p>\n<p><b>28，</b>管理能力也许非常重要，但是管理能力很难进行评估。购买某一家公司股票的依据应该建立在公司发展前景之上，而不是建立在公司总裁的履历或者演讲能力之上。</p>\n<p><b>仔细考虑市盈率的高低</b></p>\n<p><b>避开热门行业的热门股票</b></p>\n<p><b>29，</b>仔细考虑市盈率的高低。如果股票价格被严重高估，即使公司其他情况都很好，你也不可能从这种股票上赚到一分钱。</p>\n<p><b>30，</b>期望从稳定増长型股票中找到一只10倍股是亳无意义的。如果一只稳定增长型股票的股价线超过收益线，或者市盈率远远超过正常市盈率水平，你应该考虑卖出这只股票，等股价回落后再买回来，或者买入其他没有上涨的稳定增长型股票。</p>\n<p><b>31，</b>特别要小心那些年收益增长率高达50%-100%的公司，一定要用怀疑的眼光进行分析。</p>\n<p><b>32，</b>避开热门行业的热门股票。最好的公司也会有不景气的时候，增长停滞的行业里有大赢家。</p>\n<p><b>33，</b>不要相信多元化经营，事实证明多元化经营往往反而会导致公司经营状况恶化。</p>\n<p><b>34，</b>那些一旦成功将获得巨大回报但只有微小成功机会的投资冒险几乎从来都不会成功。</p>\n<p><b>35，当人们把某只股票吹成某某第二时，这表明不仅这只“某某第二”的股票牛气将尽，而且那只某某股票也将成为明日黄花。</b></p>\n<p><b>36，</b>怀疑时，等等看。</p>\n<p><b>股价下跌正是追加买入</b></p>\n<p><b>质优价廉好股票的大好时机</b></p>\n<p><b>37，</b>一只好股票价格下跌并不是什么痛苦的悲剧，除非你是在下跌后低价卖出，而不是更多地追加买入。</p>\n<p>对我来说，<b>股价下跌正是追加买入质优价廉好股票的大好时机</b>，你应该从那些未来具有很大上涨可能性但目前股价表现最差或者远远落后的股票中选择进一步追加买入。</p>\n<p><b>38，</b>如果你不能说服自己坚持“当我的股票下跌25%时我就追加买入”的正确信念，以及戒除“当我的股票下跌25%我就卖出”的毁灭性错误信念，那么你永远不可能从股票投资上获得什么像样的回报。</p>\n<p><b>39，</b>股市暴跌有点可怕，但你要问自己，下跌是否将导致人们不再买车、买房、买家用电器，不再去餐厅吃饭？</p>\n<p><b>40，</b>股市大跌其实是好事，让我们又有一次好机会以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票。</p>\n<p><b>41，</b>成熟的选股者和股市下跌的关系，就像明尼苏达州的居民和寒冷天气的关系一样。你知道股市大跌总会发生，也为安然度过股市大跌事前做好了准备。</p>\n<p><b>42，</b>下跌正是好机会，去捡那些慌忙逃离风暴的投资者丢下的廉价货。</p>\n<p><b>43，</b>当10个人宁愿与牙医谈论治疗牙斑的事情而不愿与一个共同基金经理人谈论股票时，很有可能股市将要止跌反弹了。</p>\n<p><b>想要抄底买入一只下跌的股票</b></p>\n<p><b>就如同想要抓住一把下跌的刀子</b></p>\n<p><b>44，</b>黎明之前总是最黑暗的，但有时在最后变得一片漆黑之前也总是最黑暗的。</p>\n<p><b>45，</b>抄底买入，就像把鱼钩放到水底钓大鱼，是一种最流行的投资娱乐活动，但往往被钓住的并不是鱼而是渔夫。</p>\n<p><b>46，</b>想要抄底买入一只下跌的股票，就如同想要抓住一把下跌的刀子。通常来说一个更稳妥的办法是，等刀落到地上后，扎进地里，晃来晃去了一阵后停止不动了，这时再抓起这把刀子也不退。</p>\n<p><b>47，</b>想要抓住一只迅速下跌的股票抄底买入，不但抄不到底，可能连你的老底儿都会输个精光。</p>\n<p>因为你在错以为是底部的价位买入，其实根本不是底部，离真正的底部还远着呢。就像想抓住一把迅速下坠的刀子，不但抓不住，反而会伤到手导致剧烈的疼痛，因为你抓错了地方。</p>\n<p><b>48，</b>如果你对困境反转型股票感兴趣的话，你应该找到一个更加充分的买入理由，而不是因为这只股票已经下跌这么多了，所以看起来可能会反弹。</p>\n<p><b>49，</b>卖出一只困境反转型股票的最佳时机是在公司成功转危为安之后，所有的困难都已经得到解决，并且每个投资者都知道这家公司已经东山再起了。</p>\n<p><b>试图通过选时来躲开熊市的同时</b></p>\n<p><b>往往也错过了与牛市共舞的机会</b></p>\n<p><b>50，</b>试图通过选时来躲开熊市的同时，往往也错过了与牛市共舞的机会。</p>\n<p><b>51，</b>听到有人预测市场走势的时候，最重要的技巧不是静静聆听，而是打起呼噜睡大觉。</p>\n<p><b>52，</b>投资的窍门不是要学会相信自己内心的感觉，而是要约束自己不去理会内心的感觉。（已收录《2022投资日历》，点击了解详情）</p>\n<p><b>53，</b>想着一旦赌赢就会大赚一把，于是大赌一把，结果往往会大输一把。</p>\n<p><b>54，</b>最优秀的投资者的智商既不属于智商最高的那3%，也不属于最差的10%，而是在两者之间。</p>\n<p><b>55，</b>在股票市场的投资只限于你承受得起的损失数量，即使这笔损失真的发生了，也不会对你的日常生活产生任何影响。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5cd975c48fc62ac32df25130533c0bc","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122601482","content_text":"对于国内众多成名的基金经理而言，彼得·林奇是开启投资之路的导师。\n他在管理麦哲伦基金的13年间基金规模同期增长了27倍，平均收益率达到了29％，创下有史以来最高基金业绩的神话。\n但即便是投成长股的彼得·林奇，也强调不要买市盈率太高的股票，他说：“除了极少数例外情况，特别高的市盈率是股价上涨的障碍，正如特别重的马鞍是赛马奔跑的障碍一样。”\n林奇称：“一般来说，如果一家公司的股票市盈率只有收益増长率的一半，那么这只股票赚钱的可能性就相当大，如果股票市盈率是收益增长率的两倍，那么这只股票亏钱的可能就非常大。在为基金进行选股时我们一直使用这个指标来进行股票分析。”\n今年以来市场上蒸蒸日上的新能源，如果我们去看它的估值，新能源汽车ETF市盈率已经达到241.16，新能源ETF市盈率也达到了77.81。\n这确实是一个很吓人的数字。只有你非常看好它长远未来的成长，才能解释在当下这个估值去买入的行为。\n正如彼得·林奇在他的书中反反复复强调的，你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它。\n他也说，只要快速增长型公司的收益继续增长、规模继续扩张，并且没有出现影响公司增长的障碍，就会继续持有这些快速增长型公司的股票。\n归根结底，还是来自于公司本身是否具有持续增长的能力，在于自己对于公司的研究是否足够深入，以及购买时的决定是否来自更长远的时间维度。\n在《彼得·林奇的成功投资》一书中，林奇用通俗易懂的方式，详细分享了他那些年的经典投资案例，他也鼓励业余投资者在自己擅长的领域去投资。\n近期重读林奇三本经典之作，摘取其中最有启发的55句金句，分享给大家。\n不要拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草\n1，抛掉赚钱的好股票，抱着亏钱的差股票，无异于拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草。\n2，卖出赔钱的股票，让赚钱的股票多跑一会儿。\n3，只要快速增长型公司的收益继续增长、规模继续扩张，并且没有出现影响公司增长的障碍，我就会继续持有这些快速增长型公司的股票。\n4，如果是在两只快速增长型公司股票之间进行选择，我发现，其中一只股票已经上涨了50%但公司发展前景让我感到怀疑，而另一只股票已经下跌或者基本没动但公司发展前景更好，那么我会卖出前一只股票然后将资金用来增持后一只。\n5，我对周期型公司股票和困境反转型公司股票也是这样进行投资操作。卖出那些基本面恶化并且股价上涨的股票，把资金用来增加买入那些基本面好转并且股价下跌的股票。\n如果你明白自己购买某只股票的初衷\n你自然知道对它说再见的合理时机\n6，投资周期性股票就像玩21点扑克牌游戏：如果赌得太久，最终会把赢来的钱再输光。\n7，快速增长型股票的卖出技巧是不要过早卖出而错失一只未来会上涨10倍的大牛股。\n8，如果你明白自己购买某只股票的初衷，你自然知道对它说再见的合理时机。\n9，耐心固然是美德，但如果你持有盛年不再的股票，你的忍耐未必终有所获。\n10，要治疗那些觉得自己的股票肯定会大涨的幻想，最好的药方是股价下跌。\n11，如果一家公司基本面没有改变，仅仅因为“股价不可能再涨”就放弃持有这家公司的股票实在是太糟糕了。\n“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠\n12，在选择一只新股票时要认真研究分析，至少应该与你选择一台新冰箱所花的时间和精力一样多。\n13，不进行研究的投资，就像打扑克从不看牌一样，必然失败。\n14，你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它，“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠。\n15，想在平静怡人的环境中找到大牛股，如同侦探呆坐在沙发上就想找到破案线索，几乎是不可能的。\n16，持有股票就像养孩子，不要超出力所能及的范围。业余投资者大概能追踪8-12家公司，但不要同时拥有5只以上的股票。\n17，如果你考察10家公司，你可能会找到一家有意思的股票，如果你考察20家，可能会找到2只，考察100家就可能会找到10只。考察的公司最多的人将在投资这场游戏中取胜。\n18，公司发展是动态的，公司发展前景是变化的，根本没有任何一只你可以不管不问只需一直持有的股票。\n“任何傻瓜都能经营这项业务”\n是理想公司的一个特点\n19，如果你购买股票的唯一原因是因为你觉得它的价格将上涨，那么你不应该买入。\n20，“任何傻瓜都能经营这项业务”是理想公司的一个特点，而这种公司的股票正是我梦寐以求的。\n21，以更高的价格购买一家优秀公司股票，要好于用便宜的价格购买所谓能成为下一个这家优秀公司的公司。\n22，分析师都感到厌烦之日，正是最佳买入之时。\n23，在股票市场上，一鸟在手胜过十鸟在林。\n24，如果你预测某家公司能够从某一种特定产品获利的话，那么你应该考虑一下公司总销售收入的规模，计算一下这种产品销售收入在公司总收入中所占的比重。\n25，寻找那些已经盈利并且事实证明它们能够在其他地方复制其经营理念取得成功的小公司。\n26，在公司第一轮业绩上涨时最好不要盲目买入，等等看公司的扩张计划是否确实有效再做决定更为稳妥。\n27，在不增长行业中增长速度适中的公司（收益増长率为20%-25%）是十分理想的股票投资对象。\n28，管理能力也许非常重要，但是管理能力很难进行评估。购买某一家公司股票的依据应该建立在公司发展前景之上，而不是建立在公司总裁的履历或者演讲能力之上。\n仔细考虑市盈率的高低\n避开热门行业的热门股票\n29，仔细考虑市盈率的高低。如果股票价格被严重高估，即使公司其他情况都很好，你也不可能从这种股票上赚到一分钱。\n30，期望从稳定増长型股票中找到一只10倍股是亳无意义的。如果一只稳定增长型股票的股价线超过收益线，或者市盈率远远超过正常市盈率水平，你应该考虑卖出这只股票，等股价回落后再买回来，或者买入其他没有上涨的稳定增长型股票。\n31，特别要小心那些年收益增长率高达50%-100%的公司，一定要用怀疑的眼光进行分析。\n32，避开热门行业的热门股票。最好的公司也会有不景气的时候，增长停滞的行业里有大赢家。\n33，不要相信多元化经营，事实证明多元化经营往往反而会导致公司经营状况恶化。\n34，那些一旦成功将获得巨大回报但只有微小成功机会的投资冒险几乎从来都不会成功。\n35，当人们把某只股票吹成某某第二时，这表明不仅这只“某某第二”的股票牛气将尽，而且那只某某股票也将成为明日黄花。\n36，怀疑时，等等看。\n股价下跌正是追加买入\n质优价廉好股票的大好时机\n37，一只好股票价格下跌并不是什么痛苦的悲剧，除非你是在下跌后低价卖出，而不是更多地追加买入。\n对我来说，股价下跌正是追加买入质优价廉好股票的大好时机，你应该从那些未来具有很大上涨可能性但目前股价表现最差或者远远落后的股票中选择进一步追加买入。\n38，如果你不能说服自己坚持“当我的股票下跌25%时我就追加买入”的正确信念，以及戒除“当我的股票下跌25%我就卖出”的毁灭性错误信念，那么你永远不可能从股票投资上获得什么像样的回报。\n39，股市暴跌有点可怕，但你要问自己，下跌是否将导致人们不再买车、买房、买家用电器，不再去餐厅吃饭？\n40，股市大跌其实是好事，让我们又有一次好机会以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票。\n41，成熟的选股者和股市下跌的关系，就像明尼苏达州的居民和寒冷天气的关系一样。你知道股市大跌总会发生，也为安然度过股市大跌事前做好了准备。\n42，下跌正是好机会，去捡那些慌忙逃离风暴的投资者丢下的廉价货。\n43，当10个人宁愿与牙医谈论治疗牙斑的事情而不愿与一个共同基金经理人谈论股票时，很有可能股市将要止跌反弹了。\n想要抄底买入一只下跌的股票\n就如同想要抓住一把下跌的刀子\n44，黎明之前总是最黑暗的，但有时在最后变得一片漆黑之前也总是最黑暗的。\n45，抄底买入，就像把鱼钩放到水底钓大鱼，是一种最流行的投资娱乐活动，但往往被钓住的并不是鱼而是渔夫。\n46，想要抄底买入一只下跌的股票，就如同想要抓住一把下跌的刀子。通常来说一个更稳妥的办法是，等刀落到地上后，扎进地里，晃来晃去了一阵后停止不动了，这时再抓起这把刀子也不退。\n47，想要抓住一只迅速下跌的股票抄底买入，不但抄不到底，可能连你的老底儿都会输个精光。\n因为你在错以为是底部的价位买入，其实根本不是底部，离真正的底部还远着呢。就像想抓住一把迅速下坠的刀子，不但抓不住，反而会伤到手导致剧烈的疼痛，因为你抓错了地方。\n48，如果你对困境反转型股票感兴趣的话，你应该找到一个更加充分的买入理由，而不是因为这只股票已经下跌这么多了，所以看起来可能会反弹。\n49，卖出一只困境反转型股票的最佳时机是在公司成功转危为安之后，所有的困难都已经得到解决，并且每个投资者都知道这家公司已经东山再起了。\n试图通过选时来躲开熊市的同时\n往往也错过了与牛市共舞的机会\n50，试图通过选时来躲开熊市的同时，往往也错过了与牛市共舞的机会。\n51，听到有人预测市场走势的时候，最重要的技巧不是静静聆听，而是打起呼噜睡大觉。\n52，投资的窍门不是要学会相信自己内心的感觉，而是要约束自己不去理会内心的感觉。（已收录《2022投资日历》，点击了解详情）\n53，想着一旦赌赢就会大赚一把，于是大赌一把，结果往往会大输一把。\n54，最优秀的投资者的智商既不属于智商最高的那3%，也不属于最差的10%，而是在两者之间。\n55，在股票市场的投资只限于你承受得起的损失数量，即使这笔损失真的发生了，也不会对你的日常生活产生任何影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876941803,"gmtCreate":1637252323728,"gmtModify":1637252323728,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876941803","repostId":"878991134","repo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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a> 已经成为赌场炙手可热的新姑娘，好像我要不蹭这个热点都out了。 美国电动三宝： Tesla 1万亿美元 Rivian 1483亿美元 Lucid 900亿美元 大家都知道我一直trade tesla，但rivian和lucid纯围观，但凡做这两都是赌，没谁真是看长期价投吧？Rivian一共交付了157辆车还是给自己员工，目前已经是全球第三大市值的车企，仅次特斯拉和丰田（说不定今晚就第二了）。Lucid就更离谱，刚发财报收入23万，市值就900亿美元，超过福特。 老美炒PPT车企的能力比大A有过之无不及。 昨晚赌场又追加筹码了！Rivian期权横空出世！看看IV惊呆了，200算低的了，期权首日成交量就非常大，我看到11月19本周五到期的call多张成交量过万，行权价200的call成交量超过了2万，这可是只有三天就到期了！put这边，只有150和160的成交过万，总量看call远高于put，尽管涨了这么多，大家看涨情绪依然很高。出期权有什么好？其实衍生品是有利于完善对冲手段的，也给市场增加流动性，rivian上市一周大量收益不菲的获利盘可以用个期权做对冲或者做保护，比如做一个sell covered call或者买一个put。如果持有rivian和lucid整个的朋友不烦考虑一下。 再看看lucid的期权链，成交量1万2万算少了，都得5万10万的看。而且IV都在150%以上了。但是从昨晚的数据看，平仓的多，成交量/持仓量都有近1","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a> 已经成为赌场炙手可热的新姑娘，好像我要不蹭这个热点都out了。 美国电动三宝： Tesla 1万亿美元 Rivian 1483亿美元 Lucid 900亿美元 大家都知道我一直trade tesla，但rivian和lucid纯围观，但凡做这两都是赌，没谁真是看长期价投吧？Rivian一共交付了157辆车还是给自己员工，目前已经是全球第三大市值的车企，仅次特斯拉和丰田（说不定今晚就第二了）。Lucid就更离谱，刚发财报收入23万，市值就900亿美元，超过福特。 老美炒PPT车企的能力比大A有过之无不及。 昨晚赌场又追加筹码了！Rivian期权横空出世！看看IV惊呆了，200算低的了，期权首日成交量就非常大，我看到11月19本周五到期的call多张成交量过万，行权价200的call成交量超过了2万，这可是只有三天就到期了！put这边，只有150和160的成交过万，总量看call远高于put，尽管涨了这么多，大家看涨情绪依然很高。出期权有什么好？其实衍生品是有利于完善对冲手段的，也给市场增加流动性，rivian上市一周大量收益不菲的获利盘可以用个期权做对冲或者做保护，比如做一个sell covered call或者买一个put。如果持有rivian和lucid整个的朋友不烦考虑一下。 再看看lucid的期权链，成交量1万2万算少了，都得5万10万的看。而且IV都在150%以上了。但是从昨晚的数据看，平仓的多，成交量/持仓量都有近1","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 和$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ 已经成为赌场炙手可热的新姑娘，好像我要不蹭这个热点都out了。 美国电动三宝： Tesla 1万亿美元 Rivian 1483亿美元 Lucid 900亿美元 大家都知道我一直trade tesla，但rivian和lucid纯围观，但凡做这两都是赌，没谁真是看长期价投吧？Rivian一共交付了157辆车还是给自己员工，目前已经是全球第三大市值的车企，仅次特斯拉和丰田（说不定今晚就第二了）。Lucid就更离谱，刚发财报收入23万，市值就900亿美元，超过福特。 老美炒PPT车企的能力比大A有过之无不及。 昨晚赌场又追加筹码了！Rivian期权横空出世！看看IV惊呆了，200算低的了，期权首日成交量就非常大，我看到11月19本周五到期的call多张成交量过万，行权价200的call成交量超过了2万，这可是只有三天就到期了！put这边，只有150和160的成交过万，总量看call远高于put，尽管涨了这么多，大家看涨情绪依然很高。出期权有什么好？其实衍生品是有利于完善对冲手段的，也给市场增加流动性，rivian上市一周大量收益不菲的获利盘可以用个期权做对冲或者做保护，比如做一个sell covered call或者买一个put。如果持有rivian和lucid整个的朋友不烦考虑一下。 再看看lucid的期权链，成交量1万2万算少了，都得5万10万的看。而且IV都在150%以上了。但是从昨晚的数据看，平仓的多，成交量/持仓量都有近1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21afe6049fe163ece55b2d708c10c1ed","width":"2164","height":"1556"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8cb98aa306bae25c3c7c6bc6412b200","width":"830","height":"604"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bb3590d1c4a8fdab404d09cd023878","width":"2198","height":"1506"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878991134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876011572,"gmtCreate":1637243771809,"gmtModify":1637243801715,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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做生不做熟","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11fb7a0f853c866532c02733330383b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876011572","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878014997,"gmtCreate":1637123379868,"gmtModify":1637123379985,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878014997","repostId":"2184995880","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871275110,"gmtCreate":1637077264534,"gmtModify":1637077264668,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>没事","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>没事","text":"$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$没事","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/181c52661a568e120728d2912214a4a1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871275110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870435730,"gmtCreate":1636641672458,"gmtModify":1636641672603,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>&nbsp;继续持有","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>&nbsp;继续持有","text":"$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 继续持有","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ddae423fe519cbdd06483706465cfc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870435730","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847769409,"gmtCreate":1636554821707,"gmtModify":1636554821834,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>&nbsp;估值过高逢低买入","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>&nbsp;估值过高逢低买入","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 估值过高逢低买入","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb6cbc91df0d4cbdac8767836005521d","width":"1080","height":"3024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847769409","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844482142,"gmtCreate":1636451817890,"gmtModify":1636452708103,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575448027714632","idStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"恭喜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>哈哈哈哈哈哈","listText":"恭喜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>哈哈哈哈哈哈","text":"恭喜$特斯拉(TSLA)$哈哈哈哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844482142","repostId":"1105473904","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105473904","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636451194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105473904?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-09 17:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动：特斯拉“新生意”获批！元宇宙第一股暴涨21%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105473904","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股股指期货涨跌不一，三季度营收翻倍，Roblox盘前涨超21%；$英伟达$涨超3%，开盘势创股价历史新高；申请正式获批，$特斯拉$要在德州卖电了！特斯拉盘前“躁动”。“元宇宙第一股”Roblox盘前涨超21%。财报显示，三季度Roblox营收为5.093亿美元，同比增长102%。对此，特斯拉能源风险投资公司总裁Ana Stewart表示拒绝置评。","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：美股股指期货涨跌不一，三季度营收翻倍，Roblox盘前涨超21%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨超3%，开盘势创股价历史新高；申请正式获批，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>要在德州卖电了！特斯拉盘前“躁动”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>11月9日，美股股指期货涨跌不一，道指期货跌0.05%，标普500指数跌0.01%，纳指期货涨0.10%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d32bd493a0074a81323d211adbbdfac8\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“元宇宙第一股”Roblox盘前涨超21%。财报显示，三季度Roblox营收为5.093亿美元，同比增长102%。平均日活跃用户(DAU)为4730万，同比增长31%。</p>\n<p>英伟达盘前涨超3%，开盘势创股价历史新高！消息方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>自动驾驶将采用英伟达系统级芯片Orin，同时，在今日的GTC大会上，英伟达发布了NVIDIA Omniverse Avatar，一个用于生成交互式AI化身的技术平台。</p>\n<p>特斯拉盘前上涨1.7%，申请正式获批，特斯拉要在德州卖电了！特斯拉的子公司特斯拉能源风险投资公司(Tesla Energy Ventures)提交的卖电申请正式获批，可以向美国德州的零售客户销售电力。文件显示，特斯拉可以利用其在该州的光伏电池板客户网络来建立用户群，通过移动端应用程序和网站进行营销。从上述文件看，关于特斯拉计划的规模以及希望为多少客户提供服务的细节很少，该公司与政府机构之间的许多文件都是保密的。但特斯拉目前在该州的客户为该公司提供了一个容易接近的客户基础。对此，特斯拉能源风险投资公司总裁Ana Stewart表示拒绝置评。</p>\n<p>Paypal盘前跌超3%，第三季度营收不及市场预期，绩后遭多家投行下调目标价。财报显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>第三季度净营收为61.82亿美元，同比增长13%；净利润为10.87亿美元，同比增长6%；每股摊薄收益为0.92美元，同比增长7%。PayPal第三季度调整后每股收益超出华尔街分析师预期，但营收未达预期，且第四季度和2021财年全年的业绩展望也均逊于预期。</p>\n<p>雅乐科技(YALA.N)盘前涨超8%，第三季度收入同比增长110.8%，平均月活跃用户同比增长81.9%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRIP\">猫途鹰</a>(TRIP.O)盘前跌超7%，第三季度营收、净利润均不及市场预期。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>盘前跌近5%，财报显示，AMC院线Q3营收7.63亿美元，同比增长536%；净亏损2.24亿美元，去年同期净亏损9.06亿美元；摊薄后每股亏损为0.44美元，去年同期每股亏损为8.41美元。</p>\n<p>区块链概念股走高，Marathon Digital涨超9%，比特数字(BTBT.US)涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>涨超3%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>盘前跌近1%，财报显示，第三季度净营收为人民币181亿元，与去年同期的人民币205亿元相比下降11.9%；净亏损为人民币17.66亿元，相比之下去年同期的净利润为人民币7500万元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动：特斯拉“新生意”获批！元宇宙第一股暴涨21%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前异动：特斯拉“新生意”获批！元宇宙第一股暴涨21%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-09 17:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 摘要：美股股指期货涨跌不一，三季度营收翻倍，Roblox盘前涨超21%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨超3%，开盘势创股价历史新高；申请正式获批，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>要在德州卖电了！特斯拉盘前“躁动”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>11月9日，美股股指期货涨跌不一，道指期货跌0.05%，标普500指数跌0.01%，纳指期货涨0.10%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d32bd493a0074a81323d211adbbdfac8\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“元宇宙第一股”Roblox盘前涨超21%。财报显示，三季度Roblox营收为5.093亿美元，同比增长102%。平均日活跃用户(DAU)为4730万，同比增长31%。</p>\n<p>英伟达盘前涨超3%，开盘势创股价历史新高！消息方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>自动驾驶将采用英伟达系统级芯片Orin，同时，在今日的GTC大会上，英伟达发布了NVIDIA Omniverse Avatar，一个用于生成交互式AI化身的技术平台。</p>\n<p>特斯拉盘前上涨1.7%，申请正式获批，特斯拉要在德州卖电了！特斯拉的子公司特斯拉能源风险投资公司(Tesla Energy Ventures)提交的卖电申请正式获批，可以向美国德州的零售客户销售电力。文件显示，特斯拉可以利用其在该州的光伏电池板客户网络来建立用户群，通过移动端应用程序和网站进行营销。从上述文件看，关于特斯拉计划的规模以及希望为多少客户提供服务的细节很少，该公司与政府机构之间的许多文件都是保密的。但特斯拉目前在该州的客户为该公司提供了一个容易接近的客户基础。对此，特斯拉能源风险投资公司总裁Ana Stewart表示拒绝置评。</p>\n<p>Paypal盘前跌超3%，第三季度营收不及市场预期，绩后遭多家投行下调目标价。财报显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>第三季度净营收为61.82亿美元，同比增长13%；净利润为10.87亿美元，同比增长6%；每股摊薄收益为0.92美元，同比增长7%。PayPal第三季度调整后每股收益超出华尔街分析师预期，但营收未达预期，且第四季度和2021财年全年的业绩展望也均逊于预期。</p>\n<p>雅乐科技(YALA.N)盘前涨超8%，第三季度收入同比增长110.8%，平均月活跃用户同比增长81.9%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRIP\">猫途鹰</a>(TRIP.O)盘前跌超7%，第三季度营收、净利润均不及市场预期。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>盘前跌近5%，财报显示，AMC院线Q3营收7.63亿美元，同比增长536%；净亏损2.24亿美元，去年同期净亏损9.06亿美元；摊薄后每股亏损为0.44美元，去年同期每股亏损为8.41美元。</p>\n<p>区块链概念股走高，Marathon Digital涨超9%，比特数字(BTBT.US)涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>涨超3%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>盘前跌近1%，财报显示，第三季度净营收为人民币181亿元，与去年同期的人民币205亿元相比下降11.9%；净亏损为人民币17.66亿元，相比之下去年同期的净利润为人民币7500万元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AMC":"AMC院线",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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17:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴：当美联储开始加息，会发生什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191931329","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，通常加息第一年经济增长","content":"<p>如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，<b>通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲，通胀继续上升，股市继续上涨，信贷紧缩，债券收益率曲线趋平；到了第二年，经济增长开始放缓，股市趋于平稳，信贷开始扩大，债券收益率下降。</b></p>\n<p><b>自1955年以来，一共有13个独立的加息周期，平均时间不到2年。</b>如果从宣布加息当天开始计算，<b>历史上的衰退则平均会在3-3.5年后出现。</b>不过，1980年的加息到1981年的衰退只隔了11个月，但1983年的加息到1990年的衰退则隔了86个月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31efda7cdde544625b45a04a91847f0\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>常见的一个模式是，<b>增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后</b>。这与货币政策的滞后性有关，一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。</p>\n<p>考虑到加息后最早出现衰退的时间是11个月，那么<b>从统计上看，2022年出现负增长的可能性很低</b>。如果历史可信的话，这种可能性将从2023年起不断增加。</p>\n<h2>加息周期中的宏观经济</h2>\n<p>在加息开启之后，<b>名义和实际GDP都会在第二年开始出现增速放缓，但通胀并没有这个趋势。</b></p>\n<p>平均而言，在加息周期的第一年，实际GDP增长为+4.8%，但在第二年放缓至+2.7%，第三年为+2.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8993e9e70f1a67a81fcd4c8aefc2ab7c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在紧缩周期开始后，名义GDP中也出现同样的现象。第一年平均增长8.5%，但第二年放缓至6.5%，第三年增长5.8%，这是一个主要的趋势。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06d1d87d68cf5570c03d53192fab33a\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>然而在通胀方面并没有类似的现象。通胀可能是加息周期开始的主要原因，但历史表明，抑制通胀需要一段时间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5108efa691e5735afce776a9feefe7\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>平均而言，通货膨胀率已经从第一次加息后一年的+3.8%上升到第二年的+4.5%。也就是说，这在很大程度上是一种相关性而非因果关系，因为加息周期开始的首要原因往往是通胀压力，而通胀具有惯性。</p>\n<h2>加息周期中的资本市场</h2>\n<p>加息周期开启后，<b>股指与债券收益率变化相似，通常在首次加息的9个月到一年后开始走低</b>。</p>\n<p>标准500普尔指数的平均价格在加息周期的第一年往往有坚实的增长，一年后的平均回报率为7.7%。<b>在紧缩周期开始后的253天后回报率开始走低，直到第452天后才突破这个最高值。</b></p>\n<p>平均而言，在13个加息周期中，标普500指数在周期开始后的9-10个月里平均回报均不为正，<b>但紧缩两年后，指数开始上涨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3661883cf2b94b5451fc8dbc75d7b9d3\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>10年期美国国债收益率也是类似的变化。在加息第一年，平均收益率上升超过111个基点，但不久之后收益率又开始下降。实际上加息周期的第二和第三年都在下降。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，<b>在首次加息前的12个月里，收益率往往会下降，但在首次加息结束后又开始上升。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd7733f4ae7e7deaeaf508f82c8ef5c\" tg-width=\"1180\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而通常用作衰退指标的美国国债2s10s利差曲线斜率，<b>在加息的第一年有一个明显的趋平趋势，在之后转为稳定。</b></p>\n<p>在加息开始时，2s10s曲线以平均100个基点的绝对水平开始，在周期开始一年后，曲线趋于平缓。在13个加息周期的样本的6个案例中，该曲线在一年后发生反转。因为从反转到衰退通常只需要不到18个月，而从首次加息到衰退通常需要3-3.5年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddd3823d782476c112c09fcae4588ff\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>信贷方面，从历史上看，<b>BBB信用利差在加息第一年会收窄，大约收窄47个基点。之后利差趋于扩大，在加息周期开始三年后几乎回到原本水平。</b>在首次加息开始时，又会出现显著变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf41f9cb4fded40d7d067946114d89\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>因此，如果历史是可信的，当美联储在2022年上半年首次加息时，它将在随后的两到三年内对经济和金融市场产生影响。</p>\n<p>当然，这一次可能会有所不同，这是一个不寻常的周期，不过历史分析中已经出现了不容忽视的明显趋势。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴：当美联储开始加息，会发生什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴：当美联储开始加息，会发生什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 17:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲，通胀继续上升，股市继续上涨，信贷紧缩，债券收益率曲线趋平；到了第二年，经济增长开始放缓，股市趋于平稳，信贷开始扩大，债券收益率下降。\n自1955年以来，一共有13个独立的加息周期，平均时间...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191931329","content_text":"如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲，通胀继续上升，股市继续上涨，信贷紧缩，债券收益率曲线趋平；到了第二年，经济增长开始放缓，股市趋于平稳，信贷开始扩大，债券收益率下降。\n自1955年以来，一共有13个独立的加息周期，平均时间不到2年。如果从宣布加息当天开始计算，历史上的衰退则平均会在3-3.5年后出现。不过，1980年的加息到1981年的衰退只隔了11个月，但1983年的加息到1990年的衰退则隔了86个月。\n\n常见的一个模式是，增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后。这与货币政策的滞后性有关，一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。\n考虑到加息后最早出现衰退的时间是11个月，那么从统计上看，2022年出现负增长的可能性很低。如果历史可信的话，这种可能性将从2023年起不断增加。\n加息周期中的宏观经济\n在加息开启之后，名义和实际GDP都会在第二年开始出现增速放缓，但通胀并没有这个趋势。\n平均而言，在加息周期的第一年，实际GDP增长为+4.8%，但在第二年放缓至+2.7%，第三年为+2.1%。\n\n在紧缩周期开始后，名义GDP中也出现同样的现象。第一年平均增长8.5%，但第二年放缓至6.5%，第三年增长5.8%，这是一个主要的趋势。\n\n然而在通胀方面并没有类似的现象。通胀可能是加息周期开始的主要原因，但历史表明，抑制通胀需要一段时间。\n\n平均而言，通货膨胀率已经从第一次加息后一年的+3.8%上升到第二年的+4.5%。也就是说，这在很大程度上是一种相关性而非因果关系，因为加息周期开始的首要原因往往是通胀压力，而通胀具有惯性。\n加息周期中的资本市场\n加息周期开启后，股指与债券收益率变化相似，通常在首次加息的9个月到一年后开始走低。\n标准500普尔指数的平均价格在加息周期的第一年往往有坚实的增长，一年后的平均回报率为7.7%。在紧缩周期开始后的253天后回报率开始走低，直到第452天后才突破这个最高值。\n平均而言，在13个加息周期中，标普500指数在周期开始后的9-10个月里平均回报均不为正，但紧缩两年后，指数开始上涨。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率也是类似的变化。在加息第一年，平均收益率上升超过111个基点，但不久之后收益率又开始下降。实际上加息周期的第二和第三年都在下降。\n值得注意的是，在首次加息前的12个月里，收益率往往会下降，但在首次加息结束后又开始上升。\n\n而通常用作衰退指标的美国国债2s10s利差曲线斜率，在加息的第一年有一个明显的趋平趋势，在之后转为稳定。\n在加息开始时，2s10s曲线以平均100个基点的绝对水平开始，在周期开始一年后，曲线趋于平缓。在13个加息周期的样本的6个案例中，该曲线在一年后发生反转。因为从反转到衰退通常只需要不到18个月，而从首次加息到衰退通常需要3-3.5年。\n\n信贷方面，从历史上看，BBB信用利差在加息第一年会收窄，大约收窄47个基点。之后利差趋于扩大，在加息周期开始三年后几乎回到原本水平。在首次加息开始时，又会出现显著变化。\n\n因此，如果历史是可信的，当美联储在2022年上半年首次加息时，它将在随后的两到三年内对经济和金融市场产生影响。\n当然，这一次可能会有所不同，这是一个不寻常的周期，不过历史分析中已经出现了不容忽视的明显趋势。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}