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幸福的小豹
10-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
根据产业链调研结果,总体中性,但是未来会改变
幸福的小豹
09-16
难以预测才是美联储要的
千钧一刻,美联储却模棱两可,怎么回事?
幸福的小豹
09-13
$拼多多(PDD)$
高盛在唱多,公司在自黑,我的观点是趋势的力量最大,积极看多
幸福的小豹
09-04
都不看好,预期给的太高了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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根据产业链调研结果,总体中性,但是未来会改变","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358289018773528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350028990275896,"gmtCreate":1726484192087,"gmtModify":1726484309912,"author":{"id":"3575196591486819","authorId":"3575196591486819","name":"幸福的小豹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5586948f98f290f0cf74e4e1452c805e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575196591486819","idStr":"3575196591486819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"难以预测才是美联储要的","listText":"难以预测才是美联储要的","text":"难以预测才是美联储要的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350028990275896","repostId":"2467891469","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2467891469","pubTimestamp":1726478746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2467891469?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-16 17:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千钧一刻,美联储却模棱两可,怎么回事?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467891469","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储与市场的沟通相当糟糕,导致罕见性地出现旗鼓相当的押注,周二可能提前出答案?","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>美联储与市场的沟通相当糟糕,导致罕见性地出现旗鼓相当的押注,周二可能提前出答案?</strong></p></blockquote><p>美联储在经历了上世纪70年代以来最严重的通胀后首次放松货币政策,这被视为对经济的一种松绑,原本应该受到欢迎,但经济学家表示,本周这一广受期待的举措却因混乱的预期和市场波动而蒙上了阴影。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNS\">丰业银行</a>经济副总裁Derek Holt在给客户的一份报告中表示:“这应该是一个值得庆祝的时刻,在一定程度上确实如此。不幸的是,<strong>美联储与市场的沟通相当糟糕,导致市场围绕降息规模和步伐问题的预期波动性加剧。</strong>”</p><p>上周,美联储9月会议降息50个基点的几率从周中的不到20%飙升至晚些时候的近50%,最初原因是媒体报道援引前美联储官员的话说,他们支持更大幅度的降息。</p><p>Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示:“美联储不遗余力地将降息50个基点的选项重新摆上桌面。”</p><p>Bannockburn Global Forex首席市场策略师Mark Chandler指出,<strong>在美联储会议前很少出现这样旗鼓相当的押注。</strong></p><p>BMO Capital Markets首席美国经济学家Scott Anderson表示:“市场已经积极准备迎接本周美联储主席鲍威尔和联邦公开市场(FOMC)的鸽派信息。在我看来,这增加了鹰派意外的风险,至少可能暂时搅动市场。”</p><p>许多华尔街经济学家坚持他们的呼吁,即美联储将在本周的会议上温和降息25个基点,但实际上他们都表示,现在看来这是一个千钧一发的时刻。有的投行已将降息幅度预期扩大至50个基点。一些人表示,<strong>周二疲软的8月零售销售报告可能会使美联储朝着降息50个基点的方向发展</strong>。</p><p>为什么市场会有这么多的困惑呢?</p><p>美国银行证券前全球经济研究主管Ethan Harris表示,经济学家面临的挑战是,美联储对经济的反应已经变得难以预测。</p><p>Harris表示,大多数经济学家认为美联储希望逐步采取行动,但在最近的加息周期中,美联储放弃了这种做法。相反,它并没有在第一次出现通胀迹象时加息,而是随后大举加息。</p><p>在新冠疫情之前,渐进主义是美联储剧本的重要组成部分。Harris通过电子邮件告诉MarketWatch,这是因为前景总是不确定的,美联储一直在试图避免反复无常。</p><p>为什么美联储不挑明自己的意图?</p><p>丰业银行的Holt表示,美联储官员可能不知道该怎么做,并希望开会讨论这个问题。“这很正常,”他说。</p><p>“另一方面,政策制定者之间也可能存在重大分歧,以至于没有明确的支持来反映统一的立场。亦或是,可能是美联储认为没有必要在市场下跌时出手干预。”Holt补充道。</p><h3 id=\"id_4056043071\">降息50个基点的理由</h3><p>Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示,人们对美联储降息50个基点的长期担忧是,这样做可能会适得其反,并加剧人们对美联储即将面临经济困境的担忧。但上周投资者似乎将这视为对市场更友好的美联储。</p><p>他补充说,最近的调查显示,企业对降息已经急不可耐了。</p><p>波士顿学院(Boston College)经济学家教授布Brian Bethune表示,美国制造商开始被美元的强势“打败”。</p><h3 id=\"id_1333637490\">降息25个基点的理由</h3><p>Holt表示,没有迫切需要扩大降息规模。金融市场运作良好,美国经济具有弹性。</p><p>他表示,美联储可能更有可能通过较小的降息举措来管理市场。“现在降息50个基点可能会让市场迎来一个‘陷阱时刻’(gotcha moment),并将其视为先例。他们可能会为未来的重大举措定价,这可能会促使美联储调整利率的速度超过其希望的速度。”</p><p>美银证券(Bank of America Securities)首席全球经济学家Antonio Gabriel表示,他将坚持降息25个基点的观点。“会议传递的主要信息应该是尽管存在下行风险,但仍保持谨慎乐观的态度,”他说。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>千钧一刻,美联储却模棱两可,怎么回事?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千钧一刻,美联储却模棱两可,怎么回事?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-16 17:25 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=148312&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储与市场的沟通相当糟糕,导致罕见性地出现旗鼓相当的押注,周二可能提前出答案?美联储在经历了上世纪70年代以来最严重的通胀后首次放松货币政策,这被视为对经济的一种松绑,原本应该受到欢迎,但经济学家表示,本周这一广受期待的举措却因混乱的预期和市场波动而蒙上了阴影。丰业银行经济副总裁Derek Holt在给客户的一份报告中表示:“这应该是一个值得庆祝的时刻,在一定程度上确实如此。不幸的是,美联储与...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=148312&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50698586a853a32b3d021d53ac76d484","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BAC":"美国银行","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","OEX":"标普100","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=148312&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467891469","content_text":"美联储与市场的沟通相当糟糕,导致罕见性地出现旗鼓相当的押注,周二可能提前出答案?美联储在经历了上世纪70年代以来最严重的通胀后首次放松货币政策,这被视为对经济的一种松绑,原本应该受到欢迎,但经济学家表示,本周这一广受期待的举措却因混乱的预期和市场波动而蒙上了阴影。丰业银行经济副总裁Derek Holt在给客户的一份报告中表示:“这应该是一个值得庆祝的时刻,在一定程度上确实如此。不幸的是,美联储与市场的沟通相当糟糕,导致市场围绕降息规模和步伐问题的预期波动性加剧。”上周,美联储9月会议降息50个基点的几率从周中的不到20%飙升至晚些时候的近50%,最初原因是媒体报道援引前美联储官员的话说,他们支持更大幅度的降息。Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示:“美联储不遗余力地将降息50个基点的选项重新摆上桌面。”Bannockburn Global Forex首席市场策略师Mark Chandler指出,在美联储会议前很少出现这样旗鼓相当的押注。BMO Capital Markets首席美国经济学家Scott Anderson表示:“市场已经积极准备迎接本周美联储主席鲍威尔和联邦公开市场(FOMC)的鸽派信息。在我看来,这增加了鹰派意外的风险,至少可能暂时搅动市场。”许多华尔街经济学家坚持他们的呼吁,即美联储将在本周的会议上温和降息25个基点,但实际上他们都表示,现在看来这是一个千钧一发的时刻。有的投行已将降息幅度预期扩大至50个基点。一些人表示,周二疲软的8月零售销售报告可能会使美联储朝着降息50个基点的方向发展。为什么市场会有这么多的困惑呢?美国银行证券前全球经济研究主管Ethan Harris表示,经济学家面临的挑战是,美联储对经济的反应已经变得难以预测。Harris表示,大多数经济学家认为美联储希望逐步采取行动,但在最近的加息周期中,美联储放弃了这种做法。相反,它并没有在第一次出现通胀迹象时加息,而是随后大举加息。在新冠疫情之前,渐进主义是美联储剧本的重要组成部分。Harris通过电子邮件告诉MarketWatch,这是因为前景总是不确定的,美联储一直在试图避免反复无常。为什么美联储不挑明自己的意图?丰业银行的Holt表示,美联储官员可能不知道该怎么做,并希望开会讨论这个问题。“这很正常,”他说。“另一方面,政策制定者之间也可能存在重大分歧,以至于没有明确的支持来反映统一的立场。亦或是,可能是美联储认为没有必要在市场下跌时出手干预。”Holt补充道。降息50个基点的理由Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示,人们对美联储降息50个基点的长期担忧是,这样做可能会适得其反,并加剧人们对美联储即将面临经济困境的担忧。但上周投资者似乎将这视为对市场更友好的美联储。他补充说,最近的调查显示,企业对降息已经急不可耐了。波士顿学院(Boston College)经济学家教授布Brian Bethune表示,美国制造商开始被美元的强势“打败”。降息25个基点的理由Holt表示,没有迫切需要扩大降息规模。金融市场运作良好,美国经济具有弹性。他表示,美联储可能更有可能通过较小的降息举措来管理市场。“现在降息50个基点可能会让市场迎来一个‘陷阱时刻’(gotcha moment),并将其视为先例。他们可能会为未来的重大举措定价,这可能会促使美联储调整利率的速度超过其希望的速度。”美银证券(Bank of America Securities)首席全球经济学家Antonio Gabriel表示,他将坚持降息25个基点的观点。“会议传递的主要信息应该是尽管存在下行风险,但仍保持谨慎乐观的态度,”他说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348944842510568,"gmtCreate":1726221287499,"gmtModify":1726221535235,"author":{"id":"3575196591486819","authorId":"3575196591486819","name":"幸福的小豹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5586948f98f290f0cf74e4e1452c805e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575196591486819","idStr":"3575196591486819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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