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虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2023-12-13
投资的思考: 一张手纸只有10%的面积是用来擦屎的,剩下90%的面积是为了防止手沾到屎。你的投资生涯应该只有10%的时间是做交易的,剩下90%的时间是用来思考保证投资不出错的。投资安全边际就是卫生纸的宽度与厚度,越宽越厚越不容易沾到手,每个人的手法不一样,需要纸的宽度与厚度也不一样……
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2023-06-07
我还以为是黄世仁呢
等不来的黄仁勋
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-11-04
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-11-04
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
还要跌
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-04-25
$中国有赞(08083)$
抄底了,一毛钱了难道要归零吗
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-03-15
$锦欣生殖(01951)$
目前上面出来一个文件,针对上市的营利性医疗机构,需要今天前反馈3个问题:1:上市融资是否符合健康产业发展的政策导向 2:营利性医疗机构上市融资是否会在行业内产生不良示范效应 3:营利性医疗机构上市融资是否会导致社会资本再医疗领域无须扩张。 据此消息,港股海吉亚医疗、A股通策医疗、爱尔眼科,锦欣生殖纷纷暴跌。
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-03-07
$京东健康(06618)$
50块钱买了一千股
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-03-07
$京东健康(06618)$
50块钱买了一个股
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-02-11
$箩筐技术(LKCO)$
箩筐己跌成碗了
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-25
$诺辉健康-B(06606)$
静待时机
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-21
$朝云集团(06601)$
掉的差不多了吧
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-14
$德盈控股(02250)$
2.5买入投机一下
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-07
$诺辉健康-B(06606)$
一买就开涨,运气爆棚
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-06
$掌门教育(ZME)$
这个掌门是岳不群,练了辟邪剑谱,没法雄起了
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-05
$药明巨诺-B(02126)$
又可以买了不
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-04
$怪兽充电(EM)$
套了一个月,跑了
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2022-01-03
$诺辉健康-B(06606)$
买入
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2021-12-30
前景暗淡
微盟集团:不清楚股价变动的原因 确认公司运作一切正常
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2021-12-30
业务前景暗淡,回购作用不大
抱歉,原内容已删除
虚怀若谷的特鲁曼
2021-12-24
$药明巨诺-B(02126)$
跑了,20多买12补仓
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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19:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"等不来的黄仁勋","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2341786008","media":"全天候科技","summary":"中国当前的AI行业需要黄仁勋,但黄仁勋更需要中国市场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>中国当前的AI行业需要黄仁勋,但黄仁勋更需要中国市场。</strong></blockquote><p>过去一周,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>CEO黄仁勋的中国台湾行中,与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>创始人张忠谋的餐会上,除了唠家长里短,或许谈得更多的还是如何解决当前芯片供应短缺的问题。</p><p>新浪财经援引台媒消息,由于先前英伟达、台积电的保守预估,双方都没有料到AI GPU等HPC芯片需求喷发。目前,台积电正在以“超级急件”生产英伟达的AI GPU,订单已满至年底。</p><p>这其中,或许就有一批投身AI大模型的中国企业的订单。</p><p>AI大模型同样是一个有着先发优势的领域,拥有巨大、优质数据集,强大的算力和算法,并率先落地的企业,毋庸置疑将占据更多的优势。</p><p>黄仁勋所执掌的英伟达,掌握着AI大模型的“算力”命门,其A100、H100,是当前为AI大模型提供算力的“主力”。在如火如荼的大模型角逐赛中,参赛者储备了多少张显卡,已经成为了重要竞争力之一。</p><p>在那些已经排到了年底的订单里,谁都想“插个队”。</p><p>对于6月黄仁勋可能到访大陆的行程,行业内外也十分关注。根据此前网传消息,黄仁勋将在中国台湾行后于6月6日到访上海,与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>和小米等中国企业的高管会面。</p><p>但事非人愿,新浪科技报道,“英伟达CEO黄仁勋在成功结束台北国际计算机展(Computex)之行后,目前已经返回美国。”</p><p>虽然中国大陆之行未成,但黄仁勋与英伟达离不开中国市场,不仅是因为中国市场在其营收中占到了一半江山,还因为中国科技行业的巨大潜力,无论是AI、游戏,还是自动驾驶。</p><p>但目前,英伟达的竞争对手们也在跟上,不仅是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">博通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>,许多国内企业也已经在想算力的“第二套方案”。大厂的自研芯片昆仑芯、含光800、升腾910芯片等已分别用在了文心一言、通义大模型、盘古大模型之中。</p><p>对此,黄仁勋已经有了“危机感”,访华或许只是时间问题。</p><h2>01 黄仁勋来了,又走了</h2><p>上周,黄仁勋去到了中国台湾。</p><p>他拎着麻花逛了台北的夜市,穿着学位服去到了台湾大学演讲。在台北国际计算机展那天(5月29日),他用两个小时发布了多款英伟达的新品,又马不停蹄地赶到联发科发布会的现场,与联发科CEO蔡力行共同宣布两家公司将一同开发车用SoC芯片(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>座舱芯片)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb738d8c44ad618bd7decd357985a257\" alt=\"黄仁勋在台湾大学演讲 图片来源:网络\" title=\"黄仁勋在台湾大学演讲 图片来源:网络\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"564\"/><span>黄仁勋在台湾大学演讲 图片来源:网络</span></p><p>当然,黄仁勋也没有忘记见老伙伴。</p><p>他在6月1日与台积电创始人张忠谋会面,并与张忠谋夫妇共进晚餐。双方合作了二十余年,台积电一直是英伟达的核心芯片代工方。</p><p>到了6月2日这天,黄仁勋又去与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HHPD.UK\">鸿海集团</a>董事长刘扬伟见了面。双方会谈的内容不对外公开,不过此前刘扬伟曾表示,鸿海正在与英伟达合作进行自动驾驶技术研发。</p><p>黄仁勋在中国台湾一举一动都在受到关注,对于他之后的行程,也是众说纷纭。据新浪科技报道,目前他已返回美国。</p><p>此前有消息称,6月5日黄仁勋将在北京会见政府官员,会谈开立新的中国GPU研发分部;将在6月6日到达上海,行程包括腾讯、字节跳动、理想汽车、比亚迪和小米等公司。</p><p>事实证明,上述消息不实。但对于他可能的到访,显然是一件令行业内外期待的事情。</p><p>正如互联网时代的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、移动互联网时代下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、新能源时代的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>,黄仁勋执掌的英伟达正在成为AI时代中的“新王”。</p><p>在上周,英伟达市值一度超过了万亿美元,约为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>市值的8倍,台积电的2倍,成为当时市值最高的芯片公司。即便随后有所下跌,但也与Alphabet Inc、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、苹果、微软等巨头站在同一梯队。</p><p>仅仅是今年,英伟达的股价涨幅就达到了160%。截至6月6日美股收盘,英伟达股价报386.54美元/股,市值为9548亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b2d288c093f51ae884790144181284\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>成为新王,英伟达是赶上了全球AI的大浪潮。</p><p>在当前,无论是AI大语言模型,还是AIGC,都离不开算力的支持。而英伟达推出的A100芯片、H100则是当前支撑起大模型算力的“主力”GPU。无论是OpenAI,还是国内各大布局AI大模型的互联网、科技企业,都在A100、H100等芯片上投入不菲。</p><p>同时,英伟达多年前就开始布局的CUDA开发平台(通用并行计算架构)也在发挥着巨大的作用,搭载GPU的工具集,通过CUDA编程,能够让多个GPU并行运算,从而大幅提升计算性能。</p><p>也正是在CUDA的加持之下,GPU脱离了图像处理的单一用途,开始真正具备通用计算的能力,并逐步被用到了AI的深度学习之中。</p><p>通过GPU和CUDA,可以说当前的英伟达掌握着全球AI巨头们的“算力命脉”。据咨询公司Jon Peddie Research发布的 2022 年第三季度完整 GPU 显卡市场份额报告,英伟达的市场份额达到了88%。近期,投资银行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在其投资报告中称,凭借GPU和网络产品等硬件产品,英伟达今年将在人工智能(AI)产品市场中占据高达60%的份额。</p><p>而英伟达的野心还不止如此。</p><p>在COMPUTEX 2023大会上,黄仁勋表示“巨型GPU”的GH200芯片已全面投产,还推出重磅新品超级计算机DGXGH200。这款超级计算机由256个GH200组成,被认为是当今全球性能最强的运算器产品,可以满足训练AIGC所需要的“超大规模大模型”。</p><p>众所周知的是,OpenAI的故事起源里,就有这样一台超级计算机——由黄仁勋赠送的DGX-1。</p><p>至少在英伟达“平替”还未完全具备竞争力之前,国内外各大科技企业、互联网巨头,都想挤入黄仁勋的“朋友圈”。</p><h2>02 黄仁勋的中国“朋友”</h2><p>黄仁勋6月的中国大陆之行是否也会取消,尚没有定论。</p><p>对黄仁勋和英伟达而言,在这一波AI浪潮中,他们不能丢失中国市场上的伙伴们。</p><p>通过公开报道能够查到的黄仁勋过往访华行程,他的意图都十分明确——希望能够在中国市场上找到更多的合作伙伴。</p><p>具有代表性的有两次。</p><p>一次是2013年时,小米手机3发布,在雷军的邀请下黄仁勋出席了发布会。</p><p>年少时就去到了美国的黄仁勋被雷军要求说中文,他说得并不利索,但也用中文自信地喊出:“英伟达的GPU是世界最棒的。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537f05ca27109ca2eddf05e05a5ef300\" alt=\"黄仁勋为雷军站台时声称自己也是米粉 图片来源:视频截图\" title=\"黄仁勋为雷军站台时声称自己也是米粉 图片来源:视频截图\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"521\"/><span>黄仁勋为雷军站台时声称自己也是米粉 图片来源:视频截图</span></p><p>那一次黄仁勋为小米3站台,是因为小米3旗舰版搭载了英伟达的Tegra4处理器的移动版。</p><p>Tegra4是英伟达在2013年推出了新一代智能手机芯片,在当时除了小米3,酷派大观4、中兴N88等手机都展开了与英伟达的合作。</p><p>对于移动互联网时代的到来,英伟达曾经在业务上有过调整和相关布局。黄仁勋在台北大学演讲时,还提到了当时做移动调制解调器的这段经历。</p><p>但这并不是英伟达擅长的业务,并且,移动互联网的芯片领域已经有龙头企业诞生,竞争十分激烈,英伟达的Tegra系列并没有在手机市场掀起太多的水花。</p><p>黄仁勋说:“手机市场庞大,我们能抢占市占率。然而,我们却做出艰难的决定,放弃这块市场。因为英伟达的使命,是创造出能解决‘普通电脑解决的问题’的电脑,我们应该专注在愿景上,发挥我们的独特贡献。”</p><p>而后,Tegra处理器改变了产品定位,运用在了智能汽车、智慧城市和云端服务上。</p><p>黄仁勋的另一次具有代表性的访华,是在苏州举办的GTC China 2019大会上。那一次他来到了现场,用英文进行了2个小时的演讲。演讲的重点,是AI变革的新动向,英伟达在自动驾驶、游戏和医疗等多个行业的最新进展。</p><p>这些行业中,英伟达在国内有着大量的客户。</p><p>在自动驾驶上,当前国内大部分高端车型都选择了英伟达的Orin芯片和多类型传感器的组合来实现辅助驾驶功能。如蔚来汽车更是全线标配4颗Orin芯片,算力达到1016 TOPS。此外,理想汽车、比亚迪也都是英伟达在智能驾驶上的合作伙伴兼客户。</p><p>英伟达2024财年一财季财报显示,英伟达负责自动驾驶芯片和软件的汽车部门,上季营收同比暴增114%至2.96亿美元。虽然这还是一个不大的业务板块,但却是英伟达当前增长最快的业务。</p><p>英伟达首席财务官Colette Kress称,取得该成绩的原因是Orin汽车芯片在新能源汽车采用获得大幅增长。随着英伟达车用芯片赢得更多车型设计方案采用,有望在未来获得持续增长。</p><p>在游戏上,腾讯更是英伟达的重要合作伙伴。在2019年的那一场大会上,英伟达宣布与腾讯游戏达成合作关系,在中国将电脑游戏体验引入云端,由英伟达GPU为腾讯START云游戏平台提供支持。</p><p>在近期,腾讯高级副总裁马晓轶在SPARK2023腾讯游戏发布会上表示:“腾讯游戏正在推进跟英伟达等全球多家顶级厂商的深度合作,尝试将游戏引擎和工具链打造成一个可以跨团队、跨公司协作的‘联机游戏’。”</p><p>阿里和百度也与英伟达有着深度的合作。</p><p>黄仁勋曾表示,在2019年的“双11”中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>就使用了英伟达GPU大规模部署AI,支持资源分配、模型量化和图变换三项优化策略,从而提高吞吐量和响应性。在上一波元宇宙浪潮中,百度的“希壤”也与英伟达达成合作,双方共建“AI元宇宙”。</p><p>而如今,AI的热度居高不下。国内数十家科技、互联网企业快速布局AI大模型,带来了巨大的显卡需求。</p><p>这也到了黄仁勋需要再次去见中国朋友的时候了。</p><h2>03 光环下的“隐忧”</h2><p>资本市场认可了英伟达的潜力。但同时,英伟达也在面临大股东抛售的问题。</p><p>据彭博社消息,资管机构Edmond de Rothschild多年以来一直增持英伟达,到2022年年底,其持有英伟达已经超过了20万股。不过在近期,其全球首席投资官透露,目前已经部分获利了结。</p><p>而这家机构的背后,正是百年欧洲金融巨头——罗斯柴尔德家族。</p><p>不仅如此,被誉为“估值教父”的当代著名投资估值专家阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰,也在近日清仓了英伟达。他认为,英伟达目前在人工智能芯片行业市占率为80%,市场规模为250亿美元。即使十年之后该行业的规模达到3500亿,英伟达市占率达到100%,也不足以支撑目前英伟达的市值。</p><p>并且,当前英伟达的表现并不够亮眼。在截至4月30日的2024财年一财季财报中,公司实现营收71.92亿美元,同比减少13%。其两大主要业务板块中,数据中心一季度营收42.8亿美元,同比增长14%,增速已经放缓。游戏业务一季度营收22.4亿美元,还同比下降了38%。</p><p>而年初错误预估AI GPU的需求,导致产能不足,也使得一季度的AI热尚未传递到英伟达的业绩中,预计年底会有突出的表现。</p><p>无论如何,英伟达都需要寻求更多的增长可能性,来支撑起近万亿美元的市值。</p><p>而另一方面,在海外,英伟达的竞争对手们正在迅速跟上。</p><p>华尔街分析师们认为,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>很可能是在英伟达之后,又一个受益于AI基础设施需求的公司。近期,苹果与博通达成数十亿美元协议;谷歌增加TPU处理器的订单,仅谷歌TPU处理器项目就使得博通斩获超30亿美元的营收。</p><p>如果博通能达到营收预期,那么它将超越英特尔和AMD,成为全球第二大芯片供应商。</p><p>谷歌的TPU对英伟达来说,或许更是威胁。谷歌日前公布其AI超级计算机的最新细节,称其比竞争对手英伟达系统更快、更高效。 当前,谷歌 90% 以上的人工智能训练工作都在使用这些芯片,TPU支撑了包括搜索的谷歌主要业务。</p><p>在目前中国正在加速培育本土的GPU企业,在“缺芯”之下,各大企业也在寻找第二方案。</p><p>黄仁勋最近就曾发出警告,不要低估中国企业的追赶能力。“中国在这方面投入的资源相当庞大,所以你不能低估他们,我们自己必须要跑得非常快。”</p><p>触摸到了万亿门槛,黄仁勋的压力或只增未减。与马化腾、张一鸣共进午餐,与雷军侃侃而谈,又或是去比亚迪的工厂与王传福聊一聊自动驾驶的未来,对黄仁勋来说,或许都势在必行。</p></body></html>","source":"awtmt_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>等不来的黄仁勋</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n等不来的黄仁勋\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-07 19:07 北京时间 <a href=https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3690562?extract=1><strong>全天候科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中国当前的AI行业需要黄仁勋,但黄仁勋更需要中国市场。过去一周,在英伟达CEO黄仁勋的中国台湾行中,与台积电创始人张忠谋的餐会上,除了唠家长里短,或许谈得更多的还是如何解决当前芯片供应短缺的问题。新浪财经援引台媒消息,由于先前英伟达、台积电的保守预估,双方都没有料到AI GPU等HPC芯片需求喷发。目前,台积电正在以“超级急件”生产英伟达的AI GPU,订单已满至年底。这其中,或许就有一批投身AI...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3690562?extract=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/86008115-1f75-40da-9497-d67603b55b38.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 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GPU,订单已满至年底。这其中,或许就有一批投身AI大模型的中国企业的订单。AI大模型同样是一个有着先发优势的领域,拥有巨大、优质数据集,强大的算力和算法,并率先落地的企业,毋庸置疑将占据更多的优势。黄仁勋所执掌的英伟达,掌握着AI大模型的“算力”命门,其A100、H100,是当前为AI大模型提供算力的“主力”。在如火如荼的大模型角逐赛中,参赛者储备了多少张显卡,已经成为了重要竞争力之一。在那些已经排到了年底的订单里,谁都想“插个队”。对于6月黄仁勋可能到访大陆的行程,行业内外也十分关注。根据此前网传消息,黄仁勋将在中国台湾行后于6月6日到访上海,与腾讯、字节跳动、理想汽车、比亚迪和小米等中国企业的高管会面。但事非人愿,新浪科技报道,“英伟达CEO黄仁勋在成功结束台北国际计算机展(Computex)之行后,目前已经返回美国。”虽然中国大陆之行未成,但黄仁勋与英伟达离不开中国市场,不仅是因为中国市场在其营收中占到了一半江山,还因为中国科技行业的巨大潜力,无论是AI、游戏,还是自动驾驶。但目前,英伟达的竞争对手们也在跟上,不仅是博通和谷歌,许多国内企业也已经在想算力的“第二套方案”。大厂的自研芯片昆仑芯、含光800、升腾910芯片等已分别用在了文心一言、通义大模型、盘古大模型之中。对此,黄仁勋已经有了“危机感”,访华或许只是时间问题。01 黄仁勋来了,又走了上周,黄仁勋去到了中国台湾。他拎着麻花逛了台北的夜市,穿着学位服去到了台湾大学演讲。在台北国际计算机展那天(5月29日),他用两个小时发布了多款英伟达的新品,又马不停蹄地赶到联发科发布会的现场,与联发科CEO蔡力行共同宣布两家公司将一同开发车用SoC芯片(智能座舱芯片)。黄仁勋在台湾大学演讲 图片来源:网络当然,黄仁勋也没有忘记见老伙伴。他在6月1日与台积电创始人张忠谋会面,并与张忠谋夫妇共进晚餐。双方合作了二十余年,台积电一直是英伟达的核心芯片代工方。到了6月2日这天,黄仁勋又去与鸿海集团董事长刘扬伟见了面。双方会谈的内容不对外公开,不过此前刘扬伟曾表示,鸿海正在与英伟达合作进行自动驾驶技术研发。黄仁勋在中国台湾一举一动都在受到关注,对于他之后的行程,也是众说纷纭。据新浪科技报道,目前他已返回美国。此前有消息称,6月5日黄仁勋将在北京会见政府官员,会谈开立新的中国GPU研发分部;将在6月6日到达上海,行程包括腾讯、字节跳动、理想汽车、比亚迪和小米等公司。事实证明,上述消息不实。但对于他可能的到访,显然是一件令行业内外期待的事情。正如互联网时代的微软、移动互联网时代下的苹果、新能源时代的特斯拉,黄仁勋执掌的英伟达正在成为AI时代中的“新王”。在上周,英伟达市值一度超过了万亿美元,约为英特尔、高通市值的8倍,台积电的2倍,成为当时市值最高的芯片公司。即便随后有所下跌,但也与Alphabet Inc、亚马逊、苹果、微软等巨头站在同一梯队。仅仅是今年,英伟达的股价涨幅就达到了160%。截至6月6日美股收盘,英伟达股价报386.54美元/股,市值为9548亿美元。成为新王,英伟达是赶上了全球AI的大浪潮。在当前,无论是AI大语言模型,还是AIGC,都离不开算力的支持。而英伟达推出的A100芯片、H100则是当前支撑起大模型算力的“主力”GPU。无论是OpenAI,还是国内各大布局AI大模型的互联网、科技企业,都在A100、H100等芯片上投入不菲。同时,英伟达多年前就开始布局的CUDA开发平台(通用并行计算架构)也在发挥着巨大的作用,搭载GPU的工具集,通过CUDA编程,能够让多个GPU并行运算,从而大幅提升计算性能。也正是在CUDA的加持之下,GPU脱离了图像处理的单一用途,开始真正具备通用计算的能力,并逐步被用到了AI的深度学习之中。通过GPU和CUDA,可以说当前的英伟达掌握着全球AI巨头们的“算力命脉”。据咨询公司Jon Peddie Research发布的 2022 年第三季度完整 GPU 显卡市场份额报告,英伟达的市场份额达到了88%。近期,投资银行摩根大通在其投资报告中称,凭借GPU和网络产品等硬件产品,英伟达今年将在人工智能(AI)产品市场中占据高达60%的份额。而英伟达的野心还不止如此。在COMPUTEX 2023大会上,黄仁勋表示“巨型GPU”的GH200芯片已全面投产,还推出重磅新品超级计算机DGXGH200。这款超级计算机由256个GH200组成,被认为是当今全球性能最强的运算器产品,可以满足训练AIGC所需要的“超大规模大模型”。众所周知的是,OpenAI的故事起源里,就有这样一台超级计算机——由黄仁勋赠送的DGX-1。至少在英伟达“平替”还未完全具备竞争力之前,国内外各大科技企业、互联网巨头,都想挤入黄仁勋的“朋友圈”。02 黄仁勋的中国“朋友”黄仁勋6月的中国大陆之行是否也会取消,尚没有定论。对黄仁勋和英伟达而言,在这一波AI浪潮中,他们不能丢失中国市场上的伙伴们。通过公开报道能够查到的黄仁勋过往访华行程,他的意图都十分明确——希望能够在中国市场上找到更多的合作伙伴。具有代表性的有两次。一次是2013年时,小米手机3发布,在雷军的邀请下黄仁勋出席了发布会。年少时就去到了美国的黄仁勋被雷军要求说中文,他说得并不利索,但也用中文自信地喊出:“英伟达的GPU是世界最棒的。”黄仁勋为雷军站台时声称自己也是米粉 图片来源:视频截图那一次黄仁勋为小米3站台,是因为小米3旗舰版搭载了英伟达的Tegra4处理器的移动版。Tegra4是英伟达在2013年推出了新一代智能手机芯片,在当时除了小米3,酷派大观4、中兴N88等手机都展开了与英伟达的合作。对于移动互联网时代的到来,英伟达曾经在业务上有过调整和相关布局。黄仁勋在台北大学演讲时,还提到了当时做移动调制解调器的这段经历。但这并不是英伟达擅长的业务,并且,移动互联网的芯片领域已经有龙头企业诞生,竞争十分激烈,英伟达的Tegra系列并没有在手机市场掀起太多的水花。黄仁勋说:“手机市场庞大,我们能抢占市占率。然而,我们却做出艰难的决定,放弃这块市场。因为英伟达的使命,是创造出能解决‘普通电脑解决的问题’的电脑,我们应该专注在愿景上,发挥我们的独特贡献。”而后,Tegra处理器改变了产品定位,运用在了智能汽车、智慧城市和云端服务上。黄仁勋的另一次具有代表性的访华,是在苏州举办的GTC China 2019大会上。那一次他来到了现场,用英文进行了2个小时的演讲。演讲的重点,是AI变革的新动向,英伟达在自动驾驶、游戏和医疗等多个行业的最新进展。这些行业中,英伟达在国内有着大量的客户。在自动驾驶上,当前国内大部分高端车型都选择了英伟达的Orin芯片和多类型传感器的组合来实现辅助驾驶功能。如蔚来汽车更是全线标配4颗Orin芯片,算力达到1016 TOPS。此外,理想汽车、比亚迪也都是英伟达在智能驾驶上的合作伙伴兼客户。英伟达2024财年一财季财报显示,英伟达负责自动驾驶芯片和软件的汽车部门,上季营收同比暴增114%至2.96亿美元。虽然这还是一个不大的业务板块,但却是英伟达当前增长最快的业务。英伟达首席财务官Colette Kress称,取得该成绩的原因是Orin汽车芯片在新能源汽车采用获得大幅增长。随着英伟达车用芯片赢得更多车型设计方案采用,有望在未来获得持续增长。在游戏上,腾讯更是英伟达的重要合作伙伴。在2019年的那一场大会上,英伟达宣布与腾讯游戏达成合作关系,在中国将电脑游戏体验引入云端,由英伟达GPU为腾讯START云游戏平台提供支持。在近期,腾讯高级副总裁马晓轶在SPARK2023腾讯游戏发布会上表示:“腾讯游戏正在推进跟英伟达等全球多家顶级厂商的深度合作,尝试将游戏引擎和工具链打造成一个可以跨团队、跨公司协作的‘联机游戏’。”阿里和百度也与英伟达有着深度的合作。黄仁勋曾表示,在2019年的“双11”中,阿里巴巴就使用了英伟达GPU大规模部署AI,支持资源分配、模型量化和图变换三项优化策略,从而提高吞吐量和响应性。在上一波元宇宙浪潮中,百度的“希壤”也与英伟达达成合作,双方共建“AI元宇宙”。而如今,AI的热度居高不下。国内数十家科技、互联网企业快速布局AI大模型,带来了巨大的显卡需求。这也到了黄仁勋需要再次去见中国朋友的时候了。03 光环下的“隐忧”资本市场认可了英伟达的潜力。但同时,英伟达也在面临大股东抛售的问题。据彭博社消息,资管机构Edmond de Rothschild多年以来一直增持英伟达,到2022年年底,其持有英伟达已经超过了20万股。不过在近期,其全球首席投资官透露,目前已经部分获利了结。而这家机构的背后,正是百年欧洲金融巨头——罗斯柴尔德家族。不仅如此,被誉为“估值教父”的当代著名投资估值专家阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰,也在近日清仓了英伟达。他认为,英伟达目前在人工智能芯片行业市占率为80%,市场规模为250亿美元。即使十年之后该行业的规模达到3500亿,英伟达市占率达到100%,也不足以支撑目前英伟达的市值。并且,当前英伟达的表现并不够亮眼。在截至4月30日的2024财年一财季财报中,公司实现营收71.92亿美元,同比减少13%。其两大主要业务板块中,数据中心一季度营收42.8亿美元,同比增长14%,增速已经放缓。游戏业务一季度营收22.4亿美元,还同比下降了38%。而年初错误预估AI GPU的需求,导致产能不足,也使得一季度的AI热尚未传递到英伟达的业绩中,预计年底会有突出的表现。无论如何,英伟达都需要寻求更多的增长可能性,来支撑起近万亿美元的市值。而另一方面,在海外,英伟达的竞争对手们正在迅速跟上。华尔街分析师们认为,博通很可能是在英伟达之后,又一个受益于AI基础设施需求的公司。近期,苹果与博通达成数十亿美元协议;谷歌增加TPU处理器的订单,仅谷歌TPU处理器项目就使得博通斩获超30亿美元的营收。如果博通能达到营收预期,那么它将超越英特尔和AMD,成为全球第二大芯片供应商。谷歌的TPU对英伟达来说,或许更是威胁。谷歌日前公布其AI超级计算机的最新细节,称其比竞争对手英伟达系统更快、更高效。 当前,谷歌 90% 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href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202112292230337933.html\">Web 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