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Elaela88

Elaela88

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2021-04-09

$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$Dividends soon

2021-07-02

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Holding up pretty well [Smile] we can do this!!

2021-07-19

LOL

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

2021-08-03

$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$they’re Using this to fund $GameStop(GME)$and $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$losses lol

2021-07-12

$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$Good time to average down or wait awhile more?

2021-06-24

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$14.94% short interest, 297.2m shares shorted. By ortex

2021-06-17

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$FINALLYYYYY

2021-05-07

$Occidental(OXY)$Wonder if their financials will be good this time?

2021-06-23

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$can’t wait for the day. We can do this!! Time to take back money from the hedge funds who stole our $$. When in doubt, just go on YouTube or Reddit for conviction.

2021-06-16

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$watch Matt Kohrs on YouTube for LIVE AMC updates and talk :)

2021-07-07

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Are we going to let them win? :(

2021-07-02

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$Is today the day??Apple lettting marijuana delivery to their app stores

2021-06-29

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Really hope we all earn money together!!!! [微笑]

2021-06-08

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$News outlets down, no more FUD news [得意]

2021-06-03

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$im thinking, If game stop can reach $200+ so can AMC!

2021-03-26

$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Why is it dropping today? Anyone knows?

2021-06-12

Are the green days back?

Cramer’s week ahead: Don’t underestimate the market’s small gains

2021-06-09

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Last week it rose onweds 🚀

2021-04-05

$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$So weird, why is it not rising?

2021-02-10

$Globalstar(GSAT)$Let’s break past 3!!!

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ext":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877563984","repostId":"875913334","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":875913334,"gmtCreate":1637594030277,"gmtModify":1644926912713,"author":{"id":"3574671931921507","authorId":"3574671931921507","name":"Wayneqq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d24be2c05653913e90f51e69cfe2a8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574671931921507","idStr":"3574671931921507"},"themes":[],"title":"Demystifying Options Part 5","htmlText":"This is part 5 of Demystifying Options... 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When you BUY an opti","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4ddac42c5d5b06a9d7e27c56ce2f5","width":"358","height":"382"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875913334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841059296,"gmtCreate":1635864448231,"gmtModify":1635864448395,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841059296","repostId":"1117726029","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117726029","pubTimestamp":1635862053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117726029?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: What Growth Could Mean For Price In 2025 And Beyond","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117726029","media":"SeekingAlpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFirst, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today.\nSecond, I review PLTR's g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>First, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today.</li>\n <li>Second, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is probably too modest.</li>\n <li>Third, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years.</li>\n <li>Fourth, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/914f43b37e64c3a5067eb0b621b8686c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>KevinHyde/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Background</b></p>\n<p>It's very simple really. What's growth really mean for Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)investors in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond? This is more difficult to answer than it might appear on the surface but all will be revealed.</p>\n<p>Here's how the article will play out.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>First, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I don't expect the same year-over-year growth, but PLTR investors today could still do very well.</li>\n <li>Second, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. I still believe PLTR is sandbagging.</li>\n <li>Third, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years. That's not to say options are bad, but LEAPS don't look sexy here.</li>\n <li>Lastly, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models. This is not \"get rich quick\" at all, but instead it's meant to be an intriguing way to frame future growth for any investor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Past Performance Won't Get You There</b></p>\n<p>Let's start with a basic approach. Here's how PLTR looks thus far:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3bb5915890ce620bdb3015a49df9b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>In one year, PLTR has gone up 155% going from $10 on September 30th, 2020 through $25.88 on October 29th, 2021. (I'm seeing $26.47 right now.)</p>\n<p>Although I don't expect similar results going forward, we can roughly estimate how things would look. It's been about 400 days since PLTR's DPO. Therefore, very grossly speaking, PLTR is gaining about 0.23% per day compounded. I did that fast, and very back-of-napkin, but it's still fun and interesting, if not ridiculous. Here's how things would look now if you bought at the DPO:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>10 shares at DPO for $100 = $250</li>\n <li>100 shares at DPO for $1,000 = $2,500</li>\n <li>1,000 shares at DPO for $10,000 = $25,000</li>\n <li>10,000 shares at DPO for $100,000 = $250,000</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In other words, even with $100K invested you would not yet be a PLTR millionaire. How many more days at 0.23% would it take to reach $1 million in PLTR stock in this case? Here's the math:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>10 shares at DPO = 4,000 days (about 11 years)</li>\n <li>100 shares at DPO = 3,000 days (about 8 years)</li>\n <li>1,000 shares at DPO = 2,000 days (about 5.5 years)</li>\n <li>10,000 shares at DPO = 1,000 days (about 2.5 years)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Of course, this is mostly absurd. Getting 150% returns per year is outlandish and it would have required buying right at the DPO for $10 per share. Plus, you'd need to keep getting 150% per year. Also, it would require zero selling. And, much more. Although this is all fun, it's unrealistic for most investors.</p>\n<p>So, the first big point is that even starting with a lot of money and lot of shares,<i>very few investors are hitting $1 million with PLTR right now</i>. And, even with robust assumptions, it'll take many more years to hit the big goal. Therefore, patience is required. There's no way around the math.</p>\n<p><b>More Reasonable Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>For a moment, let's review one basic ratio.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03d62686c7b3057066e9993cc4c676c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Squinting a bit, you can see that PLTR's average price-to-sales ratio is about 28. Next, here are several more mature software companies, plus PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD)and Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW)for a bit of fun, and added perspective.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5712325a7823b3bfb18b559201dbcc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, SNOW still has a much higher P/S ratio than PLTR. That's been the case for a while. And, CRWD is quite a bit higher. Then, naturally, all the older and bigger software companies I've shown here have significantly lower P/S ratios.<i>Maturity acts like gravity, pulling P/S down.</i></p>\n<p>However, with PLTR, I could easily see the P/S hold around 28 for the next several years as long as strong growth is maintained. In fact, we could see the P/S grow upwards to 40-50, or perhaps higher. On the other hand, it could drop down into the 18-22 range. Of course, anything is possible but I'm trying to establish some guardrails.</p>\n<p>Here's why this matters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1c90ea898fbbebcb6c5d7e728153db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PLTR Q2 Earnings Slides</span></p>\n<p>If revenue growth holds at 30% and price holds with respect to those sales, as the ratios indicate at this point, then we can do a bit of extrapolation. In other words, assuming 30% share price increases year over year isn't too crazy. Here's how that looks, assuming we start with a price of $25 right now:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2022 = $32.50</li>\n <li>2023 = $42.25</li>\n <li>2024 = $54.93</li>\n <li>2025 = $71.40</li>\n</ul>\n<p>But, here's the rub. I think that maybe PLTR is sandbagging. I wrote an article all about this with a&nbsp;ton of interesting proof.</p>\n<p>In fact, 40% growth might also be too conservative, and according to my projections, PLTR is actually quite capable of 50% CAGR through 2025. For reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections.</p>\n<p>Now, stick with me. Because at this point, we're moving from 30%, to a much higher set of numbers.</p>\n<p>Follow The Math</p>\n<p>I ran some numbers back in that article back in June 2021 when PLTR was trading a little bit lower, at $24. Here are those projections:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2022 = $34 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $47 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $66 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $92 (40% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Then...</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2022 = $36 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $54 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $81 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $122 (50% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Again, for reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections. The math tells us that if PLTR is expecting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, then it's got to grow way above 30%. So,<i>going way above $100 is perfectly rational.</i></p>\n<p>Therefore, in 2025, being a PLTR millionaire would require just under 11,000 shares assuming 40% growth and hitting $92. Being a PLTR millionaire would require about 8,200 shares assuming 50% growth and hitting $122 per share.</p>\n<p>Getting your hands on 11,000 shares right now at $26 would set you back $286K and 8,200 shares would cost you about $213K. Roughly speaking, you'd need $200-300K of PLTR, depending on your assumptions, and then how things actually work out.</p>\n<p>Obviously, you can run your own numbers for your own portfolio from this point. The frameworks are simple, but clear. While I don't expect any kind of smooth growth from here, I do expect tremendous and growing strength over the coming 3-5 years, let alone the next 8-10 years.</p>\n<p>With a substantial \"down payment\" becoming a PLTR millionaire isn't impossible, but that's not exact the point. Instead, it's to consider the tremendous growth in PLTR itself, but also the share price along the way. Even a modest amount of PLTR could turn into a handsome pile; thank you, growth.</p>\n<p><b>Is Leverage Worth It?</b></p>\n<p>Maybe we could use options to&nbsp;exploit leverage:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Options can provide leverage. This means an option buyer can pay a relatively small premium for market exposure in relation to the contract value (usually 100 shares of the underlying stock). An investor can see large percentage gains from comparatively small, favorable percentage moves in the underlying product.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Just remember the key risk if you're buying options:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Leverage also has downside implications. If the underlying stock price does not rise or fall as anticipated during the lifetime of the option, leverage could magnify the investment's percentage loss. Options offer their owners a predetermined, set risk.\n <b>However, if the owner's options expire with no value, this loss can be the entire amount of the premium paid for the option</b>. [Emphasis: Author's]\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, depending on your belief or \"faith\" in PLTR's growth, you could use long dated options or \"LEAPS\" to become wealthy with PLTR.</p>\n<p>For example, we can easily go out all the way to early 2024:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd29dee567adf170dd52396e1525bf0\" tg-width=\"397\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD Ameritrade</span></p>\n<p>Assuming you could buy PLTR LEAPs for $4.75 with a strike price of $40, then you could potentially do quite well if PLTR's growth numbers play out.</p>\n<p>With 40% share price growth, PLTR would hit $47 by the end of 2023. And, with 50% growth, PLTR would hit $54 by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p>At a glance that sounds good,<i>but it's not fantastic</i>. I don't even really have to run the numbers because at a glance you can see that you'd maybe 2x to 3x your money invested right now using PLTR LEAPS with a $40 strike.</p>\n<p>Instead, maybe we'd want to look more closely at the $27 strike, for example:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca9ccabc791d1c116f6cda58e4dcf606\" tg-width=\"397\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD Ameritrade</span></p>\n<p>At this point, assuming $8 for each PLTR Jan 2024 LEAP with a $27 strike, we're looking at $12 assuming gains per LEAP with 40% growth. Furthermore, we're look at about $19 gains per LEAP with 50% growth.</p>\n<p>To be clear, what I'm doing is adding the $8 LEAP cost and the $27 strike price. That's $35. Then, I'm taking $47 which assumes 40% growth, and subtracting to get the difference, which is $12. And, I'm taking the $54 which assumes 50% growth, and subtracting the same way to get $19. Nothing too fancy here, and no complicated math. Either way,<i>it falls short again</i>.</p>\n<p>Putting $8 in maybe gets us 1.5x to 2.5x returns in about 2 years. Of course, it could be more like 3x, or even maybe a bit higher. However, buying and holding is likely to generate similar gains,<i>with less risk</i>.</p>\n<p>The message is this. The options market is smart, and forward looking. And, in this case, it's basically letting us know that PLTR's growth is likely to be in the 40-50% range, as I've explained above. The deeper lesson is to have patience with PLTR common equity. The growth is there and leverage won't accelerate gains without adding too much risk.</p>\n<p>At this point in time, I'm not investing in PLTR LEAPS. Buying and holding, with strong growth tailwinds is plenty good enough for most investors. Or, at a minimum, buying PLTR and holding is good enough for my portfolio.</p>\n<p>Wrap Up</p>\n<p>First, I looked at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I'm not expecting 150% gains every year, however. That's far too greedy and besides, the uncertainty around PLTR is slowly fading, thereby stabilizing things quite a bit. In part, this is what's holding PLTR in the $22 to $28 range, I believe. The burn off of uncertainty has built a floor, or trading zone. I'm confident this floor will move upwards in 2022.</p>\n<p>Second, I reviewed PLTR's growth assumptions once again, showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. Instead, it's looking like we'll see more like 40-50% per year for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, assuming there's not a collapse in the P/S ratio, investors could enjoy 40-50% capital gains per year, although it might be quite lumpy along the way. If this is true, then hitting $90 to $120 in 2025 is rational.</p>\n<p>As a quick sidebar, I can see PLTR hitting somewhere between $65 to $85 by the end of 2023, along the way. If PLTR can show concrete growth, and if they can taper&nbsp;stock-based compensation, this seems quite plausible.</p>\n<p>Third, I've used long-dated options and some rough math to show that using leverage on PLTR in the market probably isn't going to greatly accelerate gains over 2-3 years. However, even it does work out, the risk to capital goes up. While there are some times where options work well, e.g.,selling PLTR puts, using LEAPS right now doesn't look favorable enough. Better to buy and hold, in most cases.</p>\n<p>As another sidebar, I enjoyed looking at PLTR LEAPS, which gives investors some added confidence in PLTR's growth over the next 2-3 years. The options market is rather intelligent as a wisdom of the crowds prediction model. I'm seeing an optimistic \"thumbs up\" right now.<i>Growth Stock Renegade</i>subscribers got an extra special view of this phenomenon, I might add.</p>\n<p>And lastly, as a fun exercise, I've shown that you'd likely need 8,000 to 12,000 shares, and 40-50% CAGR on those shares, to reach $1 million. That would require setting aside $200-300K, and waiting patiently until 2025. Maybe that's acceptable, and maybe not, but at least you have a framework now to understand the potential. That's the real point.</p>\n<p>Obviously, you can take all of this data plus the growth rates and come to your own conclusions. What I know is that my confidence in PLTR is still quite high and I continue to maintain my bullish position.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: What Growth Could Mean For Price In 2025 And Beyond</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: What Growth Could Mean For Price In 2025 And Beyond\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-02 22:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464239-palantir-what-growth-could-mean-for-price-in-2025-and-beyond><strong>SeekingAlpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFirst, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today.\nSecond, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is probably too modest.\nThird, I show ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464239-palantir-what-growth-could-mean-for-price-in-2025-and-beyond\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464239-palantir-what-growth-could-mean-for-price-in-2025-and-beyond","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117726029","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today.\nSecond, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is probably too modest.\nThird, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years.\nFourth, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models.\n\nKevinHyde/iStock via Getty Images\nBackground\nIt's very simple really. What's growth really mean for Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)investors in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond? This is more difficult to answer than it might appear on the surface but all will be revealed.\nHere's how the article will play out.\n\nFirst, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I don't expect the same year-over-year growth, but PLTR investors today could still do very well.\nSecond, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. I still believe PLTR is sandbagging.\nThird, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years. That's not to say options are bad, but LEAPS don't look sexy here.\nLastly, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models. This is not \"get rich quick\" at all, but instead it's meant to be an intriguing way to frame future growth for any investor.\n\nPast Performance Won't Get You There\nLet's start with a basic approach. Here's how PLTR looks thus far:\n\nIn one year, PLTR has gone up 155% going from $10 on September 30th, 2020 through $25.88 on October 29th, 2021. (I'm seeing $26.47 right now.)\nAlthough I don't expect similar results going forward, we can roughly estimate how things would look. It's been about 400 days since PLTR's DPO. Therefore, very grossly speaking, PLTR is gaining about 0.23% per day compounded. I did that fast, and very back-of-napkin, but it's still fun and interesting, if not ridiculous. Here's how things would look now if you bought at the DPO:\n\n10 shares at DPO for $100 = $250\n100 shares at DPO for $1,000 = $2,500\n1,000 shares at DPO for $10,000 = $25,000\n10,000 shares at DPO for $100,000 = $250,000\n\nIn other words, even with $100K invested you would not yet be a PLTR millionaire. How many more days at 0.23% would it take to reach $1 million in PLTR stock in this case? Here's the math:\n\n10 shares at DPO = 4,000 days (about 11 years)\n100 shares at DPO = 3,000 days (about 8 years)\n1,000 shares at DPO = 2,000 days (about 5.5 years)\n10,000 shares at DPO = 1,000 days (about 2.5 years)\n\nOf course, this is mostly absurd. Getting 150% returns per year is outlandish and it would have required buying right at the DPO for $10 per share. Plus, you'd need to keep getting 150% per year. Also, it would require zero selling. And, much more. Although this is all fun, it's unrealistic for most investors.\nSo, the first big point is that even starting with a lot of money and lot of shares,very few investors are hitting $1 million with PLTR right now. And, even with robust assumptions, it'll take many more years to hit the big goal. Therefore, patience is required. There's no way around the math.\nMore Reasonable Assumptions\nFor a moment, let's review one basic ratio.\n\nSquinting a bit, you can see that PLTR's average price-to-sales ratio is about 28. Next, here are several more mature software companies, plus PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD)and Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW)for a bit of fun, and added perspective.\n\nNot surprisingly, SNOW still has a much higher P/S ratio than PLTR. That's been the case for a while. And, CRWD is quite a bit higher. Then, naturally, all the older and bigger software companies I've shown here have significantly lower P/S ratios.Maturity acts like gravity, pulling P/S down.\nHowever, with PLTR, I could easily see the P/S hold around 28 for the next several years as long as strong growth is maintained. In fact, we could see the P/S grow upwards to 40-50, or perhaps higher. On the other hand, it could drop down into the 18-22 range. Of course, anything is possible but I'm trying to establish some guardrails.\nHere's why this matters:\nSource: PLTR Q2 Earnings Slides\nIf revenue growth holds at 30% and price holds with respect to those sales, as the ratios indicate at this point, then we can do a bit of extrapolation. In other words, assuming 30% share price increases year over year isn't too crazy. Here's how that looks, assuming we start with a price of $25 right now:\n\n2022 = $32.50\n2023 = $42.25\n2024 = $54.93\n2025 = $71.40\n\nBut, here's the rub. I think that maybe PLTR is sandbagging. I wrote an article all about this with a ton of interesting proof.\nIn fact, 40% growth might also be too conservative, and according to my projections, PLTR is actually quite capable of 50% CAGR through 2025. For reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections.\nNow, stick with me. Because at this point, we're moving from 30%, to a much higher set of numbers.\nFollow The Math\nI ran some numbers back in that article back in June 2021 when PLTR was trading a little bit lower, at $24. Here are those projections:\n\n2022 = $34 (40% growth)\n2023 = $47 (40% growth)\n2024 = $66 (40% growth)\n2025 = $92 (40% growth)\n\nThen...\n\n2022 = $36 (50% growth)\n2023 = $54 (50% growth)\n2024 = $81 (50% growth)\n2025 = $122 (50% growth)\n\nAgain, for reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections. The math tells us that if PLTR is expecting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, then it's got to grow way above 30%. So,going way above $100 is perfectly rational.\nTherefore, in 2025, being a PLTR millionaire would require just under 11,000 shares assuming 40% growth and hitting $92. Being a PLTR millionaire would require about 8,200 shares assuming 50% growth and hitting $122 per share.\nGetting your hands on 11,000 shares right now at $26 would set you back $286K and 8,200 shares would cost you about $213K. Roughly speaking, you'd need $200-300K of PLTR, depending on your assumptions, and then how things actually work out.\nObviously, you can run your own numbers for your own portfolio from this point. The frameworks are simple, but clear. While I don't expect any kind of smooth growth from here, I do expect tremendous and growing strength over the coming 3-5 years, let alone the next 8-10 years.\nWith a substantial \"down payment\" becoming a PLTR millionaire isn't impossible, but that's not exact the point. Instead, it's to consider the tremendous growth in PLTR itself, but also the share price along the way. Even a modest amount of PLTR could turn into a handsome pile; thank you, growth.\nIs Leverage Worth It?\nMaybe we could use options to exploit leverage:\n\n Options can provide leverage. This means an option buyer can pay a relatively small premium for market exposure in relation to the contract value (usually 100 shares of the underlying stock). An investor can see large percentage gains from comparatively small, favorable percentage moves in the underlying product.\n\nJust remember the key risk if you're buying options:\n\n Leverage also has downside implications. If the underlying stock price does not rise or fall as anticipated during the lifetime of the option, leverage could magnify the investment's percentage loss. Options offer their owners a predetermined, set risk.\n However, if the owner's options expire with no value, this loss can be the entire amount of the premium paid for the option. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nAnd, depending on your belief or \"faith\" in PLTR's growth, you could use long dated options or \"LEAPS\" to become wealthy with PLTR.\nFor example, we can easily go out all the way to early 2024:\nSource: TD Ameritrade\nAssuming you could buy PLTR LEAPs for $4.75 with a strike price of $40, then you could potentially do quite well if PLTR's growth numbers play out.\nWith 40% share price growth, PLTR would hit $47 by the end of 2023. And, with 50% growth, PLTR would hit $54 by the end of 2023.\nAt a glance that sounds good,but it's not fantastic. I don't even really have to run the numbers because at a glance you can see that you'd maybe 2x to 3x your money invested right now using PLTR LEAPS with a $40 strike.\nInstead, maybe we'd want to look more closely at the $27 strike, for example:\nSource: TD Ameritrade\nAt this point, assuming $8 for each PLTR Jan 2024 LEAP with a $27 strike, we're looking at $12 assuming gains per LEAP with 40% growth. Furthermore, we're look at about $19 gains per LEAP with 50% growth.\nTo be clear, what I'm doing is adding the $8 LEAP cost and the $27 strike price. That's $35. Then, I'm taking $47 which assumes 40% growth, and subtracting to get the difference, which is $12. And, I'm taking the $54 which assumes 50% growth, and subtracting the same way to get $19. Nothing too fancy here, and no complicated math. Either way,it falls short again.\nPutting $8 in maybe gets us 1.5x to 2.5x returns in about 2 years. Of course, it could be more like 3x, or even maybe a bit higher. However, buying and holding is likely to generate similar gains,with less risk.\nThe message is this. The options market is smart, and forward looking. And, in this case, it's basically letting us know that PLTR's growth is likely to be in the 40-50% range, as I've explained above. The deeper lesson is to have patience with PLTR common equity. The growth is there and leverage won't accelerate gains without adding too much risk.\nAt this point in time, I'm not investing in PLTR LEAPS. Buying and holding, with strong growth tailwinds is plenty good enough for most investors. Or, at a minimum, buying PLTR and holding is good enough for my portfolio.\nWrap Up\nFirst, I looked at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I'm not expecting 150% gains every year, however. That's far too greedy and besides, the uncertainty around PLTR is slowly fading, thereby stabilizing things quite a bit. In part, this is what's holding PLTR in the $22 to $28 range, I believe. The burn off of uncertainty has built a floor, or trading zone. I'm confident this floor will move upwards in 2022.\nSecond, I reviewed PLTR's growth assumptions once again, showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. Instead, it's looking like we'll see more like 40-50% per year for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, assuming there's not a collapse in the P/S ratio, investors could enjoy 40-50% capital gains per year, although it might be quite lumpy along the way. If this is true, then hitting $90 to $120 in 2025 is rational.\nAs a quick sidebar, I can see PLTR hitting somewhere between $65 to $85 by the end of 2023, along the way. If PLTR can show concrete growth, and if they can taper stock-based compensation, this seems quite plausible.\nThird, I've used long-dated options and some rough math to show that using leverage on PLTR in the market probably isn't going to greatly accelerate gains over 2-3 years. However, even it does work out, the risk to capital goes up. While there are some times where options work well, e.g.,selling PLTR puts, using LEAPS right now doesn't look favorable enough. Better to buy and hold, in most cases.\nAs another sidebar, I enjoyed looking at PLTR LEAPS, which gives investors some added confidence in PLTR's growth over the next 2-3 years. The options market is rather intelligent as a wisdom of the crowds prediction model. I'm seeing an optimistic \"thumbs up\" right now.Growth Stock Renegadesubscribers got an extra special view of this phenomenon, I might add.\nAnd lastly, as a fun exercise, I've shown that you'd likely need 8,000 to 12,000 shares, and 40-50% CAGR on those shares, to reach $1 million. That would require setting aside $200-300K, and waiting patiently until 2025. Maybe that's acceptable, and maybe not, but at least you have a framework now to understand the potential. That's the real point.\nObviously, you can take all of this data plus the growth rates and come to your own conclusions. What I know is that my confidence in PLTR is still quite high and I continue to maintain my bullish position.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853994753,"gmtCreate":1634750907213,"gmtModify":1634750907691,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853994753","repostId":"1172842207","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881014282,"gmtCreate":1631281234046,"gmtModify":1631884398360,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>LETS GOOOOO","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>LETS GOOOOO","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$LETS GOOOOO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881014282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889931231,"gmtCreate":1631101078323,"gmtModify":1631884401705,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Let’s gooooooo guys[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Let’s gooooooo guys[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Let’s gooooooo guys[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889931231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817725410,"gmtCreate":1630990776930,"gmtModify":1631891579231,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817725410","repostId":"817935222","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":817935222,"gmtCreate":1630896286966,"gmtModify":1631883614001,"author":{"id":"3574982782498607","authorId":"3574982782498607","name":"WYCKOFFPRO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6df9a333ebef85a0ceac10611fda7c0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574982782498607","idStr":"3574982782498607"},"themes":[],"title":"The two proxies to confirm the super bull run","htmlText":"Last week I mentioned that we might witness the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/818340544\" target=\"_blank\">born of a super bull</a>.A few of you pointed out some of the \"red flags\" I covered in the past few weeks that seem in a conflict of the super bull view.There are indeed a number of the red flags brewing and the most obvious is market breadth - the percentage of stocks above 200 MA is deteriorating, which is certainly a divergence with the index.Despite almost the 3 major indices hit historical high (Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ) this year, not all stocks are as strong as these indices because only a handful of the stocks, in particular the big &amp; mega cap stocks led the market into historical high. Many stocks especially the small cap (Russell 2000) stocks are laggards.What's","listText":"Last week I mentioned that we might witness the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/818340544\" target=\"_blank\">born of a super bull</a>.A few of you pointed out some of the \"red flags\" I covered in the past few weeks that seem in a conflict of the super bull view.There are indeed a number of the red flags brewing and the most obvious is market breadth - the percentage of stocks above 200 MA is deteriorating, which is certainly a divergence with the index.Despite almost the 3 major indices hit historical high (Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ) this year, not all stocks are as strong as these indices because only a handful of the stocks, in particular the big &amp; mega cap stocks led the market into historical high. Many stocks especially the small cap (Russell 2000) stocks are laggards.What's","text":"Last week I mentioned that we might witness the born of a super bull.A few of you pointed out some of the \"red flags\" I covered in the past few weeks that seem in a conflict of the super bull view.There are indeed a number of the red flags brewing and the most obvious is market breadth - the percentage of stocks above 200 MA is deteriorating, which is certainly a divergence with the index.Despite almost the 3 major indices hit historical high (Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) this year, not all stocks are as strong as these indices because only a handful of the stocks, in particular the big & mega cap stocks led the market into historical high. Many stocks especially the small cap (Russell 2000) stocks are laggards.What's","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14898b5f5d3a91a02e63050bb78b559a","width":"688","height":"353"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817935222","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838758806,"gmtCreate":1629431762805,"gmtModify":1631891579239,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"-","listText":"-","text":"-","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838758806","repostId":"1113659023","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833027062,"gmtCreate":1629190985056,"gmtModify":1631891579255,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"-","listText":"-","text":"-","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833027062","repostId":"839561366","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":839561366,"gmtCreate":1629166923855,"gmtModify":1629190750720,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556134694513016","idStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"执行平均下降投资策略的博弈计划","htmlText":"I wrote about the importance of having the right mental mindset in order to enact a perfect execution strategy in investing. In this article, we’ll explore a little deeper about devising a game plan on&nbsp;Averaging Down&nbsp;as an investment strategy. Do note that the focus is primarily on fundamentals first, technical second. As such, as and when we find that there is sufficient value in the company, we will consider purchasing and will use technical to aid our entry and exit positions. Is Averaging Down an Effective Strategy: First, you need to have resources or what we often termed it as&nbsp;warchest. In an ideal world where we have unlimited warchest, that would be nice. In a real world, many of us have a limited resource. Our funds are likely to be limited and even so, we want to c","listText":"I wrote about the importance of having the right mental mindset in order to enact a perfect execution strategy in investing. In this article, we’ll explore a little deeper about devising a game plan on&nbsp;Averaging Down&nbsp;as an investment strategy. Do note that the focus is primarily on fundamentals first, technical second. As such, as and when we find that there is sufficient value in the company, we will consider purchasing and will use technical to aid our entry and exit positions. Is Averaging Down an Effective Strategy: First, you need to have resources or what we often termed it as&nbsp;warchest. In an ideal world where we have unlimited warchest, that would be nice. In a real world, many of us have a limited resource. Our funds are likely to be limited and even so, we want to c","text":"I wrote about the importance of having the right mental mindset in order to enact a perfect execution strategy in investing. In this article, we’ll explore a little deeper about devising a game plan on Averaging Down as an investment strategy. Do note that the focus is primarily on fundamentals first, technical second. As such, as and when we find that there is sufficient value in the company, we will consider purchasing and will use technical to aid our entry and exit positions. Is Averaging Down an Effective Strategy: First, you need to have resources or what we often termed it as warchest. In an ideal world where we have unlimited warchest, that would be nice. In a real world, many of us have a limited resource. Our funds are likely to be limited and even so, we want to c","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af63960cb6fcb2f24c72e2da8283a70","width":"2154","height":"920"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a896f540d5c719e34cf840915f76201","width":"2084","height":"1043"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc91738e34de3415a5934b20a87ff725","width":"828","height":"128"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839561366","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897916178,"gmtCreate":1628867799094,"gmtModify":1631891579265,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"-","listText":"-","text":"-","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897916178","repostId":"897993139","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":897993139,"gmtCreate":1628866319521,"gmtModify":1629185499031,"author":{"id":"3532831849818465","authorId":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532831849818465","idStr":"3532831849818465"},"themes":[],"title":"通胀压力未减，WTI原油8月月K惊现吞没形态","htmlText":"本周，中美均公布了通胀数据。 先看中国方面，7月份居民消费价格同比上涨1.0%，环比上涨0.3%；7月份PPI同比上涨9.0%，环比上涨0.5%。 生产资料出厂价格涨幅 其中，生活资料出厂价格涨幅同比增0.3%，不过生产资料出厂价格涨幅同比12%，导致PPI增速与CPI的剪刀差进一步扩大至8%。 许导认为，由于上游原材料价格目前无法向下游有效传导，预计未来一个季度左右，PPI同比将会继续维持在7-9%的高位。随着生猪价格的企稳回升，第四季度CPI有望出现反弹，届时剪刀差有望缩窄。 因此，大家要深刻认识到，通胀高温不退，就意味着此前我们提及的周期性板块，诸如钢铁，煤炭，有色与化工的行情有望延续。与此同时，上下游价格传导的迟滞，明显限制了市场对于大消费类个股炒作的空间。为了缓和下游的成本压力，近期郭嘉出台一系列保供稳价的政策，包括抛售储备，关税调整，增加煤矿和铁矿石内矿产能等。 铁矿石VS螺纹钢 如上图所示，铁矿石与螺纹钢的价差近期已经逐步缩窄，甚至螺纹价格的涨幅已经有穿越铁矿的趋势，这也是为什么许导在课程直播里面，重点让大家关注这个板块未来的机会： 钢铁板块 当然，从7月份的社融数据来看，M2同比增长仅8.3%，远低于预期的8.7%，一定程度上引发了市场的担忧，此前的降准也许就是央妈先行一步的调控，随着7月份MPI新出口订单再度走弱，意味着今年第四季度出口压力会加大，同时也意味着，四季度降准的窗口有望再次打开。 因此，我们继续维持大A震荡的结构性行情观点不变，下周需要留意的时间窗口我写在隐藏口令好了，这里空间上就是要注意一下前文《0812：汽车制造霸屏，大盘短期压力骤显！》谈及的下降压力线和上升趋势线反压。 再看美国方面，7月份CPI同比增5.4%，与上月持平，核心CPI同比增4.3%，较上月放缓。看起来经济重启之后所带来的快速涨价阶段已经过去，不过通胀继续上行的风险仍然未解","listText":"本周，中美均公布了通胀数据。 先看中国方面，7月份居民消费价格同比上涨1.0%，环比上涨0.3%；7月份PPI同比上涨9.0%，环比上涨0.5%。 生产资料出厂价格涨幅 其中，生活资料出厂价格涨幅同比增0.3%，不过生产资料出厂价格涨幅同比12%，导致PPI增速与CPI的剪刀差进一步扩大至8%。 许导认为，由于上游原材料价格目前无法向下游有效传导，预计未来一个季度左右，PPI同比将会继续维持在7-9%的高位。随着生猪价格的企稳回升，第四季度CPI有望出现反弹，届时剪刀差有望缩窄。 因此，大家要深刻认识到，通胀高温不退，就意味着此前我们提及的周期性板块，诸如钢铁，煤炭，有色与化工的行情有望延续。与此同时，上下游价格传导的迟滞，明显限制了市场对于大消费类个股炒作的空间。为了缓和下游的成本压力，近期郭嘉出台一系列保供稳价的政策，包括抛售储备，关税调整，增加煤矿和铁矿石内矿产能等。 铁矿石VS螺纹钢 如上图所示，铁矿石与螺纹钢的价差近期已经逐步缩窄，甚至螺纹价格的涨幅已经有穿越铁矿的趋势，这也是为什么许导在课程直播里面，重点让大家关注这个板块未来的机会： 钢铁板块 当然，从7月份的社融数据来看，M2同比增长仅8.3%，远低于预期的8.7%，一定程度上引发了市场的担忧，此前的降准也许就是央妈先行一步的调控，随着7月份MPI新出口订单再度走弱，意味着今年第四季度出口压力会加大，同时也意味着，四季度降准的窗口有望再次打开。 因此，我们继续维持大A震荡的结构性行情观点不变，下周需要留意的时间窗口我写在隐藏口令好了，这里空间上就是要注意一下前文《0812：汽车制造霸屏，大盘短期压力骤显！》谈及的下降压力线和上升趋势线反压。 再看美国方面，7月份CPI同比增5.4%，与上月持平，核心CPI同比增4.3%，较上月放缓。看起来经济重启之后所带来的快速涨价阶段已经过去，不过通胀继续上行的风险仍然未解","text":"本周，中美均公布了通胀数据。 先看中国方面，7月份居民消费价格同比上涨1.0%，环比上涨0.3%；7月份PPI同比上涨9.0%，环比上涨0.5%。 生产资料出厂价格涨幅 其中，生活资料出厂价格涨幅同比增0.3%，不过生产资料出厂价格涨幅同比12%，导致PPI增速与CPI的剪刀差进一步扩大至8%。 许导认为，由于上游原材料价格目前无法向下游有效传导，预计未来一个季度左右，PPI同比将会继续维持在7-9%的高位。随着生猪价格的企稳回升，第四季度CPI有望出现反弹，届时剪刀差有望缩窄。 因此，大家要深刻认识到，通胀高温不退，就意味着此前我们提及的周期性板块，诸如钢铁，煤炭，有色与化工的行情有望延续。与此同时，上下游价格传导的迟滞，明显限制了市场对于大消费类个股炒作的空间。为了缓和下游的成本压力，近期郭嘉出台一系列保供稳价的政策，包括抛售储备，关税调整，增加煤矿和铁矿石内矿产能等。 铁矿石VS螺纹钢 如上图所示，铁矿石与螺纹钢的价差近期已经逐步缩窄，甚至螺纹价格的涨幅已经有穿越铁矿的趋势，这也是为什么许导在课程直播里面，重点让大家关注这个板块未来的机会： 钢铁板块 当然，从7月份的社融数据来看，M2同比增长仅8.3%，远低于预期的8.7%，一定程度上引发了市场的担忧，此前的降准也许就是央妈先行一步的调控，随着7月份MPI新出口订单再度走弱，意味着今年第四季度出口压力会加大，同时也意味着，四季度降准的窗口有望再次打开。 因此，我们继续维持大A震荡的结构性行情观点不变，下周需要留意的时间窗口我写在隐藏口令好了，这里空间上就是要注意一下前文《0812：汽车制造霸屏，大盘短期压力骤显！》谈及的下降压力线和上升趋势线反压。 再看美国方面，7月份CPI同比增5.4%，与上月持平，核心CPI同比增4.3%，较上月放缓。看起来经济重启之后所带来的快速涨价阶段已经过去，不过通胀继续上行的风险仍然未解","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afe9a28b3166b2f5b7aa5961b7a7995","width":"637","height":"323"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e743048d545418bd62120a92d141ff3","width":"745","height":"243"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69986af84ebdbc7935145dc658e4594","width":"660","height":"453"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897993139","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894768635,"gmtCreate":1628858073727,"gmtModify":1631883923742,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>🙂","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$🙂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894768635","repostId":"894509071","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":894509071,"gmtCreate":1628834636190,"gmtModify":1628834746515,"author":{"id":"3479274806599608","authorId":"3479274806599608","name":"dropppie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture167","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479274806599608","idStr":"3479274806599608"},"themes":[],"title":"Palantir: 7 Interesting Things From The Q2 2021 Earnings Call","htmlText":"Summary First, I briefly review the big news and highlights from PLTR's Q2 2021 business update. Second, I cover some of the details that are less well-known, including comments made by leadership on the earnings call. Third, dive into some important details about Alex Karp's compensation, including his insider selling activity; leadership had a response prepared. Lastly, I visit several metrics on my radar, including stock-based compensation, contribution margin, and deal value.&nbsp; It's likely that you've already heard the news that Palantir (PLTR) just reported astrong Q2 2021. I'm certain there will be plenty of coverage of the empirical results, including the tremendous growth andincreased cash flow outlook. Here, I'll just highlight those numbers then I'll turn to a few things that","listText":"Summary First, I briefly review the big news and highlights from PLTR's Q2 2021 business update. Second, I cover some of the details that are less well-known, including comments made by leadership on the earnings call. Third, dive into some important details about Alex Karp's compensation, including his insider selling activity; leadership had a response prepared. Lastly, I visit several metrics on my radar, including stock-based compensation, contribution margin, and deal value.&nbsp; It's likely that you've already heard the news that Palantir (PLTR) just reported astrong Q2 2021. I'm certain there will be plenty of coverage of the empirical results, including the tremendous growth andincreased cash flow outlook. Here, I'll just highlight those numbers then I'll turn to a few things that","text":"Summary First, I briefly review the big news and highlights from PLTR's Q2 2021 business update. Second, I cover some of the details that are less well-known, including comments made by leadership on the earnings call. Third, dive into some important details about Alex Karp's compensation, including his insider selling activity; leadership had a response prepared. Lastly, I visit several metrics on my radar, including stock-based compensation, contribution margin, and deal value. It's likely that you've already heard the news that Palantir (PLTR) just reported astrong Q2 2021. I'm certain there will be plenty of coverage of the empirical results, including the tremendous growth andincreased cash flow outlook. Here, I'll just highlight those numbers then I'll turn to a few things that","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58823df51548615e64dc8cbdbb201464","width":"640","height":"286"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad3d9bc5f736b9a33b0a130048ec15c","width":"640","height":"295"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde1322282f3d5457ef8a7c98afd5eef","width":"640","height":"357"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894509071","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894550545,"gmtCreate":1628842041987,"gmtModify":1631888641653,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>Did it just bottomed?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>Did it just bottomed?","text":"$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$Did it just bottomed?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894550545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896252743,"gmtCreate":1628587447182,"gmtModify":1631891579280,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896252743","repostId":"896133983","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":896133983,"gmtCreate":1628560384342,"gmtModify":1628574834120,"author":{"id":"3575124118028153","authorId":"3575124118028153","name":"thefatboi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9be39e3426e74fa682cbc28b49c221","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575124118028153","idStr":"3575124118028153"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Things are looking very good for AMC from the Earnings Call Q2 2021! Below here is a summary of the Earnings Call.&nbsp;•Adam Aaron announced on Twitter and in the call that AMC ended the June 30, 2021 quarter with MORE THAN $2 BILLION OF LIQUIDITY (cash in the bank or undrawn revolving credit line). Right around DOUBLE the highest quarter ending liquidity level AMC has ever had before in our 101 year history!• CEO Adam Aaron has not sold a single share.• There will be a GAMESTOP partnership inquiry coming up. (Potentially hosting gaming tournaments)• AMC will be finding ways to expand their businesses (through Live Events like: Sports, Music, Esports)• 10 new theaters upcoming• AMC reaches deal with Warner Bros. for 45 days th","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Things are looking very good for AMC from the Earnings Call Q2 2021! Below here is a summary of the Earnings Call.&nbsp;•Adam Aaron announced on Twitter and in the call that AMC ended the June 30, 2021 quarter with MORE THAN $2 BILLION OF LIQUIDITY (cash in the bank or undrawn revolving credit line). Right around DOUBLE the highest quarter ending liquidity level AMC has ever had before in our 101 year history!• CEO Adam Aaron has not sold a single share.• There will be a GAMESTOP partnership inquiry coming up. (Potentially hosting gaming tournaments)• AMC will be finding ways to expand their businesses (through Live Events like: Sports, Music, Esports)• 10 new theaters upcoming• AMC reaches deal with Warner Bros. for 45 days th","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Things are looking very good for AMC from the Earnings Call Q2 2021! Below here is a summary of the Earnings Call. •Adam Aaron announced on Twitter and in the call that AMC ended the June 30, 2021 quarter with MORE THAN $2 BILLION OF LIQUIDITY (cash in the bank or undrawn revolving credit line). Right around DOUBLE the highest quarter ending liquidity level AMC has ever had before in our 101 year history!• CEO Adam Aaron has not sold a single share.• There will be a GAMESTOP partnership inquiry coming up. (Potentially hosting gaming tournaments)• AMC will be finding ways to expand their businesses (through Live Events like: Sports, Music, Esports)• 10 new theaters upcoming• AMC reaches deal with Warner Bros. for 45 days th","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc5ea1ec13f9a7288ef99643f1d59df","width":"1080","height":"2280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896133983","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890694313,"gmtCreate":1628102476932,"gmtModify":1631884833435,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61aee91b9762e49655713d64f30c4c6f","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890694313","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807754555,"gmtCreate":1628061785677,"gmtModify":1631891579290,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807754555","repostId":"1162890450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807106396,"gmtCreate":1628003565815,"gmtModify":1631887042626,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>they’re&nbsp;Using this to fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>losses lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>they’re&nbsp;Using this to fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>losses lol","text":"$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$they’re Using this to fund $GameStop(GME)$and $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$losses lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807106396","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807103880,"gmtCreate":1628003456940,"gmtModify":1631891579303,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"People actually listened? Or is it just fake pump","listText":"People actually listened? Or is it just fake pump","text":"People actually listened? Or is it just fake pump","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807103880","repostId":"1136280710","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804058922,"gmtCreate":1627913361966,"gmtModify":1631891579318,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804058922","repostId":"805697757","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":805697757,"gmtCreate":1627874255276,"gmtModify":1628141692672,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312224764596","idStr":"3534312224764596"},"themes":[],"title":"接下来你一定要小心，最惨的时节可能就要来了","htmlText":"此前一直强调的8月份正式到来。8月，将进入全球股市最容易出风险的投资月份。不过看来无需提醒，A50已经先跌为敬了。 （摘自华尔街见闻） 一、美股指 其实美股的2、5、8、10素来是重要时间点（财报季，财报数据会证实或证伪市场），哪怕没有利空数据加持，见顶调整之概率均较大。 由于具体哪天见顶，视乎消息决定，所以策略上大家要相对敏感，跌穿均线即对冲。均线有两条20和60日均线，20日均线就需要试错避险，做空股指期货或者买入看跌期权。而60日均线可以理解为确认曲线，只是从交易上来说，60日均线较滞后，不太建议等到那个时候再处理。下跌幅度初步估计10-15%左右，时间上要视乎下跌速度而定。 二、A50 A50可谓是今年以来最弱的指数，自2月份见顶以来（重要时点），就一直下跌至今。根据A股独特的时间周期，一直以为8月份是个高点，然后来个全球共振。但A50最近的破位下跌，看来全球股市走势是分化的，有可能8月份一起调整完后，A50股率先见底也不奇怪。毕竟A50的也是中国的核心资产，美股若下跌，资金流出美国市场寻找安全资产时，A50或许是个很好的标的，因此跌下来后，抄底A50应该是投资首选。 至于哪个点位抄底A50最安全？那就要使用一年前和大家强调过的A50生命线了。 以当前价格A50仍需下跌10%才能到达黄线位置，具体点位在13400附近。如果下周继续脉冲，那么买A50空美股就成为一个很好的策略。而当前，既然A50已破位，那么继续等待即可。 三、贵金属 既然股市出风险，那么贵金属理应是避险资产中的选择。尽管美联储缩表加息对贵金属有利空效应，但贵金属毕竟调整了将近1年，目前价格也是市场多种预期博弈后的结果，因此贵金属价格并不悲观，况且时间点已到，当前值得逢低做多试错，对冲美股下跌之预期。 策略上，黄金时间点虽然确认，但仍需做好止损设置，点位在1790附近，预期黄金行情沿着20日均线震荡走高","listText":"此前一直强调的8月份正式到来。8月，将进入全球股市最容易出风险的投资月份。不过看来无需提醒，A50已经先跌为敬了。 （摘自华尔街见闻） 一、美股指 其实美股的2、5、8、10素来是重要时间点（财报季，财报数据会证实或证伪市场），哪怕没有利空数据加持，见顶调整之概率均较大。 由于具体哪天见顶，视乎消息决定，所以策略上大家要相对敏感，跌穿均线即对冲。均线有两条20和60日均线，20日均线就需要试错避险，做空股指期货或者买入看跌期权。而60日均线可以理解为确认曲线，只是从交易上来说，60日均线较滞后，不太建议等到那个时候再处理。下跌幅度初步估计10-15%左右，时间上要视乎下跌速度而定。 二、A50 A50可谓是今年以来最弱的指数，自2月份见顶以来（重要时点），就一直下跌至今。根据A股独特的时间周期，一直以为8月份是个高点，然后来个全球共振。但A50最近的破位下跌，看来全球股市走势是分化的，有可能8月份一起调整完后，A50股率先见底也不奇怪。毕竟A50的也是中国的核心资产，美股若下跌，资金流出美国市场寻找安全资产时，A50或许是个很好的标的，因此跌下来后，抄底A50应该是投资首选。 至于哪个点位抄底A50最安全？那就要使用一年前和大家强调过的A50生命线了。 以当前价格A50仍需下跌10%才能到达黄线位置，具体点位在13400附近。如果下周继续脉冲，那么买A50空美股就成为一个很好的策略。而当前，既然A50已破位，那么继续等待即可。 三、贵金属 既然股市出风险，那么贵金属理应是避险资产中的选择。尽管美联储缩表加息对贵金属有利空效应，但贵金属毕竟调整了将近1年，目前价格也是市场多种预期博弈后的结果，因此贵金属价格并不悲观，况且时间点已到，当前值得逢低做多试错，对冲美股下跌之预期。 策略上，黄金时间点虽然确认，但仍需做好止损设置，点位在1790附近，预期黄金行情沿着20日均线震荡走高","text":"此前一直强调的8月份正式到来。8月，将进入全球股市最容易出风险的投资月份。不过看来无需提醒，A50已经先跌为敬了。 （摘自华尔街见闻） 一、美股指 其实美股的2、5、8、10素来是重要时间点（财报季，财报数据会证实或证伪市场），哪怕没有利空数据加持，见顶调整之概率均较大。 由于具体哪天见顶，视乎消息决定，所以策略上大家要相对敏感，跌穿均线即对冲。均线有两条20和60日均线，20日均线就需要试错避险，做空股指期货或者买入看跌期权。而60日均线可以理解为确认曲线，只是从交易上来说，60日均线较滞后，不太建议等到那个时候再处理。下跌幅度初步估计10-15%左右，时间上要视乎下跌速度而定。 二、A50 A50可谓是今年以来最弱的指数，自2月份见顶以来（重要时点），就一直下跌至今。根据A股独特的时间周期，一直以为8月份是个高点，然后来个全球共振。但A50最近的破位下跌，看来全球股市走势是分化的，有可能8月份一起调整完后，A50股率先见底也不奇怪。毕竟A50的也是中国的核心资产，美股若下跌，资金流出美国市场寻找安全资产时，A50或许是个很好的标的，因此跌下来后，抄底A50应该是投资首选。 至于哪个点位抄底A50最安全？那就要使用一年前和大家强调过的A50生命线了。 以当前价格A50仍需下跌10%才能到达黄线位置，具体点位在13400附近。如果下周继续脉冲，那么买A50空美股就成为一个很好的策略。而当前，既然A50已破位，那么继续等待即可。 三、贵金属 既然股市出风险，那么贵金属理应是避险资产中的选择。尽管美联储缩表加息对贵金属有利空效应，但贵金属毕竟调整了将近1年，目前价格也是市场多种预期博弈后的结果，因此贵金属价格并不悲观，况且时间点已到，当前值得逢低做多试错，对冲美股下跌之预期。 策略上，黄金时间点虽然确认，但仍需做好止损设置，点位在1790附近，预期黄金行情沿着20日均线震荡走高","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b20a8ea3b6fe44d00bd2620c60298905","width":"2223","height":"1511"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/430059e5ead197e634074fd68c2906e9","width":"1270","height":"860"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5398bd9c2183732a8eea8e231f0b82b9","width":"2223","height":"1438"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805697757","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805824751,"gmtCreate":1627871182273,"gmtModify":1631891579329,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805824751","repostId":"808975760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":808975760,"gmtCreate":1627554246550,"gmtModify":1627560814643,"author":{"id":"3503101861637632","authorId":"3503101861637632","name":"萧蝶sally","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47359d8d1cd34a1d4a1e6b243e7814e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503101861637632","idStr":"3503101861637632"},"themes":[],"title":"最悲观的时刻往往是买入的时机","htmlText":"牛市在悲观中诞生，在怀疑中成长，最悲观的时刻往往是买入的最佳时机——约翰邓普顿.——————相信这个时刻应该有不少人对自己持有的标的感到沮丧和怀疑.但是请审视自己的标的是否符合以下要求：1.它是否是赚钱的公司2.股价是否便宜，便宜到一定会有人在未来以高于你成本的价格买入.3.公司经营是否稳定.4.是否是该行业龙头，有一定的护城河5.成长性（行业是好是坏，未来是否也能赚钱）6.股息优异只要符合以上要求，请坚定信念，适当缓慢的一点点补仓来摊薄成本.跌时耐心播种，涨时惜售捂筹.— sally“我从来没有因为选择正确而赚到大钱，唯一让我赚到大钱的方式是：拿住不动”—巴菲特<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">$虎牙(HUYA)$</a>","listText":"牛市在悲观中诞生，在怀疑中成长，最悲观的时刻往往是买入的最佳时机——约翰邓普顿.——————相信这个时刻应该有不少人对自己持有的标的感到沮丧和怀疑.但是请审视自己的标的是否符合以下要求：1.它是否是赚钱的公司2.股价是否便宜，便宜到一定会有人在未来以高于你成本的价格买入.3.公司经营是否稳定.4.是否是该行业龙头，有一定的护城河5.成长性（行业是好是坏，未来是否也能赚钱）6.股息优异只要符合以上要求，请坚定信念，适当缓慢的一点点补仓来摊薄成本.跌时耐心播种，涨时惜售捂筹.— sally“我从来没有因为选择正确而赚到大钱，唯一让我赚到大钱的方式是：拿住不动”—巴菲特<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">$虎牙(HUYA)$</a>","text":"牛市在悲观中诞生，在怀疑中成长，最悲观的时刻往往是买入的最佳时机——约翰邓普顿.——————相信这个时刻应该有不少人对自己持有的标的感到沮丧和怀疑.但是请审视自己的标的是否符合以下要求：1.它是否是赚钱的公司2.股价是否便宜，便宜到一定会有人在未来以高于你成本的价格买入.3.公司经营是否稳定.4.是否是该行业龙头，有一定的护城河5.成长性（行业是好是坏，未来是否也能赚钱）6.股息优异只要符合以上要求，请坚定信念，适当缓慢的一点点补仓来摊薄成本.跌时耐心播种，涨时惜售捂筹.— sally“我从来没有因为选择正确而赚到大钱，唯一让我赚到大钱的方式是：拿住不动”—巴菲特$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$拼多多(PDD)$$新氧(SY)$$京东(JD)$$虎牙(HUYA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808975760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806384087,"gmtCreate":1627632981749,"gmtModify":1631884320180,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it fails so badly&nbsp;","listText":"Hope it fails so badly&nbsp;","text":"Hope it fails so badly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806384087","repostId":"2155840271","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808139281,"gmtCreate":1627563689643,"gmtModify":1631887437045,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$</a>Is it time?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$</a>Is it time?","text":"$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$Is it time?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808139281","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":348477897,"gmtCreate":1617958289219,"gmtModify":1631888641787,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>Dividends soon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>Dividends soon","text":"$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$Dividends soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348477897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152038854,"gmtCreate":1625240306078,"gmtModify":1633942137601,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Holding up pretty well [Smile]&nbsp;we can do this!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Holding up pretty well [Smile]&nbsp;we can do this!!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Holding up pretty well [Smile] we can do this!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152038854","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171369917,"gmtCreate":1626706702439,"gmtModify":1631894032722,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL","listText":"LOL","text":"LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171369917","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807106396,"gmtCreate":1628003565815,"gmtModify":1631887042626,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>they’re&nbsp;Using this to fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>losses lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>they’re&nbsp;Using this to fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>losses lol","text":"$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$they’re Using this to fund $GameStop(GME)$and $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$losses lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807106396","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146374654,"gmtCreate":1626056402778,"gmtModify":1631888641696,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>Good time to average down or wait awhile more?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>Good time to average down or wait awhile more?&nbsp;","text":"$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$Good time to average down or wait awhile more?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146374654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121262796,"gmtCreate":1624466013515,"gmtModify":1634005671234,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>14.94% short interest, 297.2m shares shorted. By ortex","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>14.94% short interest, 297.2m shares shorted. By ortex","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$14.94% short interest, 297.2m shares shorted. By ortex","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121262796","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549489176132085","authorId":"3549489176132085","name":"乘风破浪 激流","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9dad4c3d29328bca3ed9a178794332a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3549489176132085","idStr":"3549489176132085"},"content":"利息这么高","text":"利息这么高","html":"利息这么高"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168004417,"gmtCreate":1623942703139,"gmtModify":1634025500221,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>FINALLYYYYY","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>FINALLYYYYY","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$FINALLYYYYY","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168004417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104588048,"gmtCreate":1620397968684,"gmtModify":1631884954463,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$Occidental(OXY)$</a>Wonder if their financials will be good this time?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$Occidental(OXY)$</a>Wonder if their financials will be good this time?&nbsp;","text":"$Occidental(OXY)$Wonder if their financials will be good this time?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104588048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"262190804341046","idStr":"262190804341046"},"content":"差不了，一季度的石油价格都在在高位。","text":"差不了，一季度的石油价格都在在高位。","html":"差不了，一季度的石油价格都在在高位。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123478394,"gmtCreate":1624436830918,"gmtModify":1634006155239,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>can’t wait for the day. We can do this!! Time to take back money from the hedge funds who stole our $$. When in doubt, just go on YouTube or Reddit for conviction.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>can’t wait for the day. We can do this!! Time to take back money from the hedge funds who stole our $$. When in doubt, just go on YouTube or Reddit for conviction.&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$can’t wait for the day. We can do this!! Time to take back money from the hedge funds who stole our $$. When in doubt, just go on YouTube or Reddit for conviction.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123478394","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169473975,"gmtCreate":1623849428097,"gmtModify":1634027141166,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>watch Matt Kohrs on YouTube for LIVE AMC updates and talk :)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>watch Matt Kohrs on YouTube for LIVE AMC updates and talk :)","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$watch Matt Kohrs on YouTube for LIVE AMC updates and talk :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169473975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157737632,"gmtCreate":1625615157926,"gmtModify":1631894032817,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Are we going to let them win? :(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Are we going to let them win? :(","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Are we going to let them win? :(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157737632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156342634,"gmtCreate":1625198522428,"gmtModify":1631884502426,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>Is today the day??Apple lettting marijuana delivery to their app stores","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>Is today the day??Apple lettting marijuana delivery to their app stores","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$Is today the day??Apple lettting marijuana delivery to their app stores","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156342634","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150656356,"gmtCreate":1624897947775,"gmtModify":1633947259331,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Really hope we all earn money together!!!! [微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Really hope we all earn money together!!!! [微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Really hope we all earn money together!!!! [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150656356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117516875,"gmtCreate":1623150683197,"gmtModify":1634036434881,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>News outlets down, no more FUD news [得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>News outlets down, no more FUD news [得意]&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$News outlets down, no more FUD news [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117516875","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":111120684,"gmtCreate":1622665795148,"gmtModify":1634099451047,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>im thinking,&nbsp;If game stop can reach $200+ so can AMC!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>im thinking,&nbsp;If game stop can reach $200+ so can AMC!&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$im thinking, If game stop can reach $200+ so can AMC!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111120684","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358739930,"gmtCreate":1616728583320,"gmtModify":1631885602096,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Why is it dropping today? Anyone knows?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Why is it dropping today? Anyone knows?&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Why is it dropping today? Anyone knows?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358739930","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186090055,"gmtCreate":1623464257677,"gmtModify":1634032839649,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Are the green days back?&nbsp;","listText":"Are the green days back?&nbsp;","text":"Are the green days back?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186090055","repostId":"1117150461","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117150461","pubTimestamp":1623461758,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117150461?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cramer’s week ahead: Don’t underestimate the market’s small gains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117150461","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent days.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cramer’s week ahead: Don’t underestimate the market’s small gains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCramer’s week ahead: Don’t underestimate the market’s small gains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 09:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent days.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1117150461","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent days.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never short a dull market,” the “Mad Money” host said.\n“I want you to find relatively inexpensive stocks of good companies and then you can buy them on the cheap because of this genuine Wall Street gibberish that drives down some stocks unfairly,” he said.\n\nAfter stocks muscled their way slightly higher on Friday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer advised investors not to underestimate a market that’s putting up small gains.\nTheS&P 500crawled 0.19% higher to 4,247.44, a record close.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never short a dull market,” the “Mad Money” host said. “It’s good news that we’re being lulled to record highs and the market keeps shrugging off negatives, including yesterday’s scorching hot inflation numbers.”\nElsewhere, theDow Jones Industrial Indexinched up 0.04% to 34,479.60. TheNasdaq Compositeincreased 0.35% to settle at 14,069.42.\nIn the week ahead, Wall Street will turn its attentions to producer price index data on Tuesday and a readout from the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday. The producer price index, which measures how much companies pay producers for goods, could also be hot, Cramer said.\nEither way, investors may be able to find opportunities in the market, he said.\n“I want you to find relatively inexpensive stocks of good companies, and then you can buy them on the cheap because of this genuine Wall Street gibberish that drives down some stocks unfairly,” he said. “Whether they’re value or growth names makes no difference to me or to Cramerica.”\nCramer gave viewers a preview of the upcoming corporate earnings reports he has circled on his calendar. Projections for revenue and earnings per share are based on FactSet estimates:\nTuesday: Oracle\nOracle\n\nQ4 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.\nProjected EPS: $1.31\nProjected revenue: $11.02 billion\n\n“This boring, old-school enterprise software company has seen its stock surge 28% year-to-date, thanks to a remarkable acceleration in its core businesses,” Cramer said. “I bet it reports a fine quarter.”\nWednesday: Lennar\nLennar\n\nQ2 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: Thursday, 10:30 a.m.\nProjected EPS: $2.37\nProjected revenue: $6.10 billion\n\n“Stuart Miller, the former CEO and current executive chairman, likes to give you the state of the state on housing on that conference call,” he said. “We know there’s been an immense amount of inflation in the raw materials that go into a house, although lumber’s come down. But the final cost barely creeps up and that’s thanks to the ingenuity of these excellent builders.”\nThursday: Kroger, Jabil, Adobe\nKroger\n\nQ1 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 10 a.m.\nProjected EPS: 98 cents\nProjected revenue: $39.56 billion\n\n“Kroger’s stock has become a standout performer, and that’s because it’s a major beneficiary from inflation,” Cramer said. “I actually do expect a terrific number from Kroger, not many people are thinking that.”\nJabil\n\nQ3 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8:30 a.m.\nProjected EPS: $1.04\nProjected revenue: $6.95 billion\n\n“Jabil does a lot of business with Apple, and Wall Street loves playing silly guessing games by trying to extrapolate from Jabil’s results to Apple’s,” he said. “I wish they’d just focus on Jabil itself, which has been an amazing stock, up 36% for the year. Another unsung stock of an unsung company in an unsung bull market.”\nAdobe\n\nQ2 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.\nProjected EPS: $2.81\nProjected revenue: $3.73 billion\n\n“Lately [this] stock’s been meandering and that has usually been the best time to buy it,” the host said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189392178,"gmtCreate":1623244187094,"gmtModify":1634035449920,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Last week it rose onweds 🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Last week it rose onweds 🚀","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Last week it rose onweds 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189392178","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349495088,"gmtCreate":1617630734444,"gmtModify":1631884839464,"author":{"id":"3574259724752092","authorId":"3574259724752092","name":"Elaela88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3156a5038d2c649a96845e535f028f53","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574259724752092","idStr":"3574259724752092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IPOE\">$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$</a>So weird, why is it not rising?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IPOE\">$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$</a>So weird, why is it not rising?","text":"$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. 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