martingogogo的个人主页 - 老虎社区

martingogogo

martingogogo

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2024-09-27

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$Express(EXPR)$up Again！

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Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f620ce1dcf67d8fee46e9806d7cc45a","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302195119190312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620451414,"gmtCreate":1669939837838,"gmtModify":1669939839490,"author":{"id":"3572755522033854","authorId":"3572755522033854","name":"martingogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/324e80eb467177c9e935210d1bbfb556","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572755522033854","authorIdStr":"3572755522033854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已阅","listText":"已阅","text":"已阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620451414","repostId":"2288839109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2288839109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669930251,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288839109?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-02 05:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条 | 美国核心PCE仍远超联储目标，软着陆希望渺茫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288839109","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。　　在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。　　美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>　　 1、美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>       2、美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>       3、美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>       4、芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>　　 5、瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>　　 6、英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫</b></p><p>10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。</p><p>美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，10月不包括食品和能源的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较10月增长0.2%，升幅低于预期。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。</p><p>核心PCE同比上涨5%，9月升幅上修至5.2%。</p><p>整体PCE连续第三个月环比上升0.3%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bd89a1ca05a83b77f9ce74a93c3892\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大</b></p><p>美国持续申领失业救济的人数升至2月份以来的最高水平，表明失业的美国人在逐渐降温的劳动力市场上找到新工作的难度加大。</p><p>在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。</p><p>美国劳工部周四的数据显示，在截至11月26日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.6万人，至22.5万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为23.5万人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6f67b8dab72d003d6a36b4735a6092\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击</b></p><p>美国人储蓄率创2005年以来最低水平，凸显出通胀和借贷成本上升正在削弱家庭的财务缓冲能力。</p><p>美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。报告还显示，尽管通胀略有降温，但经通胀调整的支出仍然强劲。</p><p>在持续通胀和美联储加息的双重打击下，美国消费支出很难下降。最具代表性的是，信用卡消费增多，第三季度美国居民债务的同比升幅达到2008年以来最高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cc42899299aa4b8612a0f9436181\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长</b></p><p>芝加哥联储任命曾为前总统奥巴马担任顾问的经济学家奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）为新行长，现行长埃文斯将于明年1月退休。</p><p>芝加哥联储周四在一份电邮声明中表示，现年53岁的古尔斯比将于1月9日履任，他目前是芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学教授。古尔斯比曾经是美国经济顾问委员会主席，并且是美国总统奥巴马内阁中最年轻的内阁成员。</p><p>埃文斯执掌芝加哥联储15年，在任内的大部分时间里，他一直是美联储最鸽派的决策者之一。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25334e85cba6df35ddcc81c2f9c1e561\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%</b></p><p>瑞信集团股价连续第13天走低，创出有史以来最长连跌纪录，这家瑞士银行深陷困境，在持续多年的丑闻和管理不善后，资本募集计划对其股价构成进一步的冲击。</p><p>瑞信周四收盘下跌6.1%，至3.08美元的纪录新低。11月23日以来，股价下跌了大约21%，当时该行称，其关键性的理财业务遭遇大量资金外流，并称第四季度可能会再次蒙受重大亏损，达到15亿瑞郎（16亿美元）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a348a366bc39d591cfb5fb19987fb1ac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求</b></p><p>英国按揭贷款机构Nationwide Building Society表示，在借贷成本飙升抑制需求之后，英国房价跌幅超过预期，而且是新冠疫情爆发以来的最快跌速。</p><p>该机构称，英国11月房价下跌1.4%。这是数月来的第二次下跌，也是2020年6月以来的最大跌幅。不包括疫情时期，英国房价自10多年前全球金融危机以来从未出现过如此大幅的下跌。经济学家此前预期为下滑0.4%。</p><p>受英国央行上调基准贷款利率以及投资者对经济增长放缓和政府债务上升的担忧影响，住房贷款成本最近几周从一年前的约1%飙升至6%以上。虽然借款人的成本已较峰值回落，但仍可能远高于买家过去十年大部分时间内的水平。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条 | 美国核心PCE仍远超联储目标，软着陆希望渺茫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-02 05:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：　　 1、美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫       2、美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大       3、美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击       4、芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长　　 5、瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288839109","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：　　 1、美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫       2、美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大       3、美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击       4、芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长　　 5、瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%　　 6、英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，10月不包括食品和能源的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较10月增长0.2%，升幅低于预期。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。核心PCE同比上涨5%，9月升幅上修至5.2%。整体PCE连续第三个月环比上升0.3%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标。美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大美国持续申领失业救济的人数升至2月份以来的最高水平，表明失业的美国人在逐渐降温的劳动力市场上找到新工作的难度加大。在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。美国劳工部周四的数据显示，在截至11月26日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.6万人，至22.5万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为23.5万人。美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击美国人储蓄率创2005年以来最低水平，凸显出通胀和借贷成本上升正在削弱家庭的财务缓冲能力。美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。报告还显示，尽管通胀略有降温，但经通胀调整的支出仍然强劲。在持续通胀和美联储加息的双重打击下，美国消费支出很难下降。最具代表性的是，信用卡消费增多，第三季度美国居民债务的同比升幅达到2008年以来最高。芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长芝加哥联储任命曾为前总统奥巴马担任顾问的经济学家奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）为新行长，现行长埃文斯将于明年1月退休。芝加哥联储周四在一份电邮声明中表示，现年53岁的古尔斯比将于1月9日履任，他目前是芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学教授。古尔斯比曾经是美国经济顾问委员会主席，并且是美国总统奥巴马内阁中最年轻的内阁成员。埃文斯执掌芝加哥联储15年，在任内的大部分时间里，他一直是美联储最鸽派的决策者之一。瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%瑞信集团股价连续第13天走低，创出有史以来最长连跌纪录，这家瑞士银行深陷困境，在持续多年的丑闻和管理不善后，资本募集计划对其股价构成进一步的冲击。瑞信周四收盘下跌6.1%，至3.08美元的纪录新低。11月23日以来，股价下跌了大约21%，当时该行称，其关键性的理财业务遭遇大量资金外流，并称第四季度可能会再次蒙受重大亏损，达到15亿瑞郎（16亿美元）。英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求英国按揭贷款机构Nationwide Building Society表示，在借贷成本飙升抑制需求之后，英国房价跌幅超过预期，而且是新冠疫情爆发以来的最快跌速。该机构称，英国11月房价下跌1.4%。这是数月来的第二次下跌，也是2020年6月以来的最大跌幅。不包括疫情时期，英国房价自10多年前全球金融危机以来从未出现过如此大幅的下跌。经济学家此前预期为下滑0.4%。受英国央行上调基准贷款利率以及投资者对经济增长放缓和政府债务上升的担忧影响，住房贷款成本最近几周从一年前的约1%飙升至6%以上。虽然借款人的成本已较峰值回落，但仍可能远高于买家过去十年大部分时间内的水平。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664912496,"gmtCreate":1667696978416,"gmtModify":1667696980878,"author":{"id":"3572755522033854","authorId":"3572755522033854","name":"martingogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/324e80eb467177c9e935210d1bbfb556","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572755522033854","authorIdStr":"3572755522033854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已阅","listText":"已阅","text":"已阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664912496","repostId":"2281965917","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281965917","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667694588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2281965917?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-06 08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"失业率回升了，加息也到尾声了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281965917","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"招商证券指出，重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而处在加息尾声。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>核心观点</b></p><p><b>我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。</b></p><p><b>事件</b></p><p>11月4日，美国劳工统计局发布：10月份非农就业人数新增26.1万人，前值31.5万人；失业率反弹至3.7%，前值3.5%。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>10月失业率反弹至3.7%，幅度不低，因为同时劳动力参与率继续回落。1）</b>10月劳动参与率小幅回落至62.2%（前值62.3%）。这意味着美国有就业意愿的人口比例下降，假如劳动参与率本月未发生变化，失业率的反弹幅度应超过3.7%。<b>2）</b>新增非农就业数据继续反映结构性差异，信息业时薪负增长、持续降温，休闲和酒店等个别服务业在高时薪增速的情况下新增就业数据偏弱，反映疫情后的劳动力供给紧张。</p><p><b>时薪增速不弱、但尚未形成工资-通胀螺旋。</b>非农时薪环比0.4%（前值0.4%），同比持续放缓至4.7%（前值5.0%），亚特兰大联储跳槽者工资增速（可以衡量劳动者通过跳槽来实现工资对通胀的追赶）和服务业工资增速均筑顶后加速回落，分别在7.9%和6.4%（前值8.4%和6.6%）。</p><p><b>如果我们用岗位空缺率来衡量美国劳动力市场的需求侧温度，用失业人数/空缺岗位来衡量劳动力市场的紧张程度或者说结构性错配程度，且进一步衡量时薪增速同比对二者的敏感程度，如图1-2所示，可以得到以下结论：</b></p><p><b>1）</b>劳动力市场的需求侧在高位见顶、缓慢降温的方向上。<b>2）</b>失业人数/空缺岗位边际变化很低，几近走平，这很可能反映了劳动力市场的供需结构性错配问题持续未见改善，会导致从企业冻结缩减招聘岗位到成规模的裁员的时滞变长，进而岗位空缺率缩减先行于失业率的实质性反弹。<b>3）疫情冲击后，时薪增速对劳动力市场紧张/结构性错配程度的敏感性指标，出现了波动中枢一次性抬升，以及阶段性稳定的迹象，这可能意味着新的均衡位置。</b>相比之下，时薪增速对需求侧的敏感程度已回归到疫情前波动区间的偏高位置。因此，美联储收紧通过降温需求侧来稳定薪资增速，从而控制通胀的效果或者已经空间有限，加息毕竟无法解决劳动力市场的结构性错配问题，最终美联储可能必须要接受更高的通胀波动中枢。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3e0ac8e5c68a2642b022fd2bd69be\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aa9d10fcf86b0ae93e0bfc475a1a7e9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>鲍威尔的鹰派表态叠加好坏互现的就业数据令市场对12月加息预期的分歧加大：1）</b>数据公布后，12月加息50BP的概率小幅下行后反弹至56.8%，终端利率的较大概率场景仍在5.00%-5.25%。<b>2）</b>22Q4美国核心通胀预计呈波动筑顶的态势，难见明显回落，再加上中期选举前鲍威尔的偏鹰表态，美联储加息终端利率再次抬升，但失业率实质性反弹后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>回落-1.5%至111附近，美债10年收益率小幅回落至4.14%，三大股指出现反弹。</p><p><b>我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b901c317727e2c68cbd1a553d0bace\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ce3fa015b23e8989a82ef90d536994\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>风险提示：</b></p><p>美国经济与通胀超预期；美联储政策超预期。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>失业率回升了，加息也到尾声了吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n失业率回升了，加息也到尾声了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-06 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。事件11月4日，美国劳工统计局发布：10月份非农就业人数新增26.1万人，前值31.5万人；失业率反弹至3.7%，前值3.5%。正文10月失业率反弹至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53d71c62ddd4425ec8578b3c9c99de3","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281965917","content_text":"核心观点我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。事件11月4日，美国劳工统计局发布：10月份非农就业人数新增26.1万人，前值31.5万人；失业率反弹至3.7%，前值3.5%。正文10月失业率反弹至3.7%，幅度不低，因为同时劳动力参与率继续回落。1）10月劳动参与率小幅回落至62.2%（前值62.3%）。这意味着美国有就业意愿的人口比例下降，假如劳动参与率本月未发生变化，失业率的反弹幅度应超过3.7%。2）新增非农就业数据继续反映结构性差异，信息业时薪负增长、持续降温，休闲和酒店等个别服务业在高时薪增速的情况下新增就业数据偏弱，反映疫情后的劳动力供给紧张。时薪增速不弱、但尚未形成工资-通胀螺旋。非农时薪环比0.4%（前值0.4%），同比持续放缓至4.7%（前值5.0%），亚特兰大联储跳槽者工资增速（可以衡量劳动者通过跳槽来实现工资对通胀的追赶）和服务业工资增速均筑顶后加速回落，分别在7.9%和6.4%（前值8.4%和6.6%）。如果我们用岗位空缺率来衡量美国劳动力市场的需求侧温度，用失业人数/空缺岗位来衡量劳动力市场的紧张程度或者说结构性错配程度，且进一步衡量时薪增速同比对二者的敏感程度，如图1-2所示，可以得到以下结论：1）劳动力市场的需求侧在高位见顶、缓慢降温的方向上。2）失业人数/空缺岗位边际变化很低，几近走平，这很可能反映了劳动力市场的供需结构性错配问题持续未见改善，会导致从企业冻结缩减招聘岗位到成规模的裁员的时滞变长，进而岗位空缺率缩减先行于失业率的实质性反弹。3）疫情冲击后，时薪增速对劳动力市场紧张/结构性错配程度的敏感性指标，出现了波动中枢一次性抬升，以及阶段性稳定的迹象，这可能意味着新的均衡位置。相比之下，时薪增速对需求侧的敏感程度已回归到疫情前波动区间的偏高位置。因此，美联储收紧通过降温需求侧来稳定薪资增速，从而控制通胀的效果或者已经空间有限，加息毕竟无法解决劳动力市场的结构性错配问题，最终美联储可能必须要接受更高的通胀波动中枢。鲍威尔的鹰派表态叠加好坏互现的就业数据令市场对12月加息预期的分歧加大：1）数据公布后，12月加息50BP的概率小幅下行后反弹至56.8%，终端利率的较大概率场景仍在5.00%-5.25%。2）22Q4美国核心通胀预计呈波动筑顶的态势，难见明显回落，再加上中期选举前鲍威尔的偏鹰表态，美联储加息终端利率再次抬升，但失业率实质性反弹后，美元指数回落-1.5%至111附近，美债10年收益率小幅回落至4.14%，三大股指出现反弹。我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。风险提示：美国经济与通胀超预期；美联储政策超预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353694168514728,"gmtCreate":1727389255574,"gmtModify":1727401612832,"author":{"id":"3572755522033854","authorId":"3572755522033854","name":"martingogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/324e80eb467177c9e935210d1bbfb556","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572755522033854","authorIdStr":"3572755522033854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADAG\">$天演药业(ADAG)$</a>只跌不涨，只有被并购才能翻盘","text":"$天演药业(ADAG)$只跌不涨，只有被并购才能翻盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346906186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573523991764792","authorId":"3573523991764792","name":"干系","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4262f33489f49bf414c8e4332abb6d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573523991764792","authorIdStr":"3573523991764792"},"content":"医药股长期向好","text":"医药股长期向好","html":"医药股长期向好"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326328303,"gmtCreate":1615596593002,"gmtModify":1703491385667,"author":{"id":"3572755522033854","authorId":"3572755522033854","name":"martingogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/324e80eb467177c9e935210d1bbfb556","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572755522033854","authorIdStr":"3572755522033854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADAG\">$天演药业(ADAG)$</a>是时候雄起了！","listText":"<a 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07:16","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨：债务上限危机缓和！美股反弹，中概高涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130558848","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股三大指数集体收涨；热门中概股收盘全线走高，新能源汽车股大涨；美参议院就紧急债务上限延长至12月初已达成一致；美国最新民调：拜登支持率降至38%；苹果公司遭遇荷兰政府反垄断调查；特斯拉：目标到","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>摘要：</b>美股三大指数集体收涨；热门中概股收盘全线走高，新能源汽车股大涨；美参议院就紧急债务上限延长至12月初已达成一致；美国最新民调：拜登支持率降至38%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司遭遇荷兰政府反垄断调查；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>：目标到2030年实现年销量2000万辆&gt;&gt;&gt;\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>海外市场</b></p>\n<p><b>收盘：美参院就债务上限达成一致，美股周四收高</b></p>\n<p>美股周四收高。美国参议院两党就短期内提高债务上限达成一致，将暂时避免出现前所未有的债务违约。市场等待周五将公布的重要非农就业数据。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.98%，报34,754.94点；标普500指数涨0.83%，报4,399.76点；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.05%，报14,654.00点。</p>\n<p><b>热门中概股收盘全线走高，新能源汽车股大涨</b></p>\n<p>雾芯科技涨12.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>涨11.93%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>涨10.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>涨10.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨9.66%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨9.54%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>涨8.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨超8.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">腾讯ADR</a>涨7.80%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨6.30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>涨3.30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨3.26%；新能源汽车股中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超5%。</p>\n<p><b>原油期货收高1.1%，天然气基本持平</b></p>\n<p>原油期货周四收高，部分挽回了周三遭受的损失。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>部表示没有释放战略石油储备的计划，这条消息令原油价格获得支撑。纽约商品交易所11月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨87美分，涨幅1.1%，收于每桶78.30美元。</p>\n<p><b>黄金期货收跌0.1%，初请失业数据令金价承压</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货周四收低，美国上周初请失业金人数下降、美债收益率小幅上涨，令金价承压。投资者等待周五即将公布的9月非农就业数据。纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.60美元，跌幅近0.1%，收于每盎司1759.20美元。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲股市周四全线上涨，奢侈品建筑业领涨</b></p>\n<p>欧洲股市全线上涨，因为石油和天然气价格小幅下降让担心通胀失控的投资者松了口气。另外，建筑和材料行业更新盈收为投资者带来乐观的情绪。泛欧斯托克600指数收盘上涨7.34点，涨幅1.63%，报458.58点；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨274.82点，涨幅1.84%，报15248.15点；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数收盘上涨84.02点，涨幅1.20%，报7079.89点；法国CAC40指数收盘上涨107.07点，涨幅1.65%，报6600.19点。</p>\n<p><b>国际宏观</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1103387097\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美参议院就紧急债务上限延长至12月初已达成一致</b></a></p>\n<p>美国参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）宣布，参议院已就将紧急债务上限延长至12月初的协议达成一致意见，该协议将防止美国政府在10月中旬出现国债违约。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173942578\" target=\"_blank\"><b>僵局缓解？分析人士：两党“大战”将在年底到来</b></a></p>\n<p>美国财长耶伦日前估计，政府可能在10月18日发生债务违约。在距离这一大限不到两周之际，民主党和共和党7日在提高债务上限问题上达成妥协。美国国会参议院共和党领袖麦康奈尔6日提出一项短期调高联邦政府债务上限的方案，而民主党周四接受这一方案。不过有评论称，这只是两党暂时“休兵”，“大战”将在年底到来。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173641942\" target=\"_blank\"><b>市场坚信美联储11月减码，除非就业数据比预期差太多</b></a></p>\n<p>20万！根据调查的八位策略师，如果美国非农就业人数是这个数，投资者将质疑经济健康状况，并使美国国债收益率近期内走低。这也会导致市场提高对美联储推迟减码或放慢减码步伐的押注。然而经济学家对非农就业人数的预估中值达50万，是这个数字的两倍多。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173942855\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国超级富豪撤离美债市场，持有规模降至17年来最低</b></a></p>\n<p>根据美联储近期的数据，美国超级富豪持有的美国国债和市政债数量少于近二十年前。截至6月 ，收入排名前1%家庭持有的此类资产总计8870亿美元，为17年来最低，远逊于10年前1.5万亿美元的峰值。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123606671\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国上周首次申领失业救济人数降幅超出预期</b></a></p>\n<p>美国上周首次申请失业救济人数普遍下降，表明劳动力市场持续改善。根据劳工部周四公布的数据，在截至10月2日当周，首次申领失业救济人数总计32.6万人，较前一周减少3.8万人。之前接受彭博调查的经济学家预期中值为降至34.8万人。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173858942\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国最新民调：拜登支持率降至38%</b></a></p>\n<p>据美国昆尼皮亚克大学发布的一项民意调查结果显示，大多数选民不认可总统拜登的执政表现。同时，他在独立选民中的支持率持续下跌。该民调显示，仅有38%的受访者对拜登的执政表现表示满意，53%的人表示不满意。上个月的同一民调显示，42%的人支持拜登的执政表现，50%的人不支持。</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173494253\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果公司遭遇荷兰政府反垄断调查</b></a></p>\n<p>据媒体报道，荷兰反垄断机构发现，苹果要求软件开发商使用其应用内支付系统的规定具有反竞争性，并责令其作出改变，四名知情人士在最新的一份报告中表示，iPhone正遭遇监管挫折。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173944045\" target=\"_blank\"><b>微软收购初创公司Ally.io 为Office扩张提前布局</b></a></p>\n<p>微软周四表示，该公司收购了Ally.io，这是一家提供软件以帮助组织跟踪关键目标进展的初创公司。但微软并没有披露交易条款。Ally.io的仪表板和可定制工具将成为微软Viva软件的一部分，该软件于2021年2月推出，可通过其流行的Teams应用程序访问。Viva为员工提供学习材料、公司文件信息和生产力建议。</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>：所有美国员工必须在12月8日前完成新冠疫苗接种</b></p>\n<p>IBM本周告诉美国员工，他们必须在12月8日之前完成新冠疫苗接种，否则将面临无薪停职。该公司在本周发给员工的一份备忘录中表示：“作为联邦承包商，IBM必须遵守这一规定。鉴于这一要求和我们许多客户和合作伙伴的政策，以及在全美范围内可轻松获得新冠疫苗接种，我们现在将要求所有IBM美国员工在2021年12月8日之前全面接种新冠疫苗，以便继续在IBM工作。”IBM收跌0.39%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173294261\" target=\"_blank\"><b>辉瑞疫苗在美申请5至11岁年龄段紧急使用授权</b></a></p>\n<p>美国辉瑞公司当地时间7日向美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）提交在5岁至11岁年龄段使用新冠疫苗的紧急授权申请。辉瑞公司近日公布研究结果并向美国药管局提交了相关数据。在对2268名5岁至11岁儿童的试验结果显示，辉瑞疫苗安全且有效，未发现严重副作用。该年龄段群体需接种两剂疫苗，剂量是成年人的1/3。辉瑞制药收涨1.71%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1192920282\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Nikola与加拿大TC能源公司合作，计划在美加共同开发氢燃料中心</b></a></p>\n<p>电动卡车制造商Nikola Corp和加拿大能源公司TC Energy周四表示，双方已经同意就建设和运营大规模氢气燃料中心的计划进行合作，以生产尼古拉车辆所需的燃料。根据协议，两家公司计划在美国和加拿大建厂，并在未来五年内用生产的氢气燃料为尼古拉的8级燃料电池电动汽车（FCEV）提供动力。Nikola收涨4.51%.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>：维持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>跑赢大市评级 目标价450美元</b></p>\n<p>摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth表示，Facebook股价今年迄今累涨22%，但由于“大量负面消息”，股价较近期高点下跌了13%。分析师认为Facebook在Q3可以达到295亿美元的营收预期，并认为投资者对业绩的预期不会太高。分析师建议在股价回落时买入Facebook，表示之前也出现过负面信息，Facebook本身也在继续呼吁监管。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1149678416\" target=\"_blank\"><b>做空机构“盯上”法拉第未来，称永远也卖不出一辆车</b></a></p>\n<p>做空机构 J Capital Research 发布了一份关于法拉第未来的做空报告，称这是“新兴的电动汽车骗局”。J Capital 在其报告中表示 :\" 我们认为，电动法拉第未来永远也卖不出一辆车。到目前为止，它不过是一个从美国投资者那里募集资金的桶，然后把钱倒进其债务黑洞。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1187789459\" target=\"_blank\"><b>特斯拉：目标是到2030年实现年销量2000万辆</b></a></p>\n<p>特斯拉2021股东大会在得州新工厂举行。特斯拉CEO马斯克表示，有信心能保持至少50%的交付量增长率，由于供应链的成本压力，不得不暂时提价，希望芯片短缺“将很快缓解”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨：债务上限危机缓和！美股反弹，中概高涨</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨：债务上限危机缓和！美股反弹，中概高涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-08 07:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <b>摘要：</b>美股三大指数集体收涨；热门中概股收盘全线走高，新能源汽车股大涨；美参议院就紧急债务上限延长至12月初已达成一致；美国最新民调：拜登支持率降至38%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司遭遇荷兰政府反垄断调查；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>：目标到2030年实现年销量2000万辆&gt;&gt;&gt;\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>海外市场</b></p>\n<p><b>收盘：美参院就债务上限达成一致，美股周四收高</b></p>\n<p>美股周四收高。美国参议院两党就短期内提高债务上限达成一致，将暂时避免出现前所未有的债务违约。市场等待周五将公布的重要非农就业数据。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.98%，报34,754.94点；标普500指数涨0.83%，报4,399.76点；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.05%，报14,654.00点。</p>\n<p><b>热门中概股收盘全线走高，新能源汽车股大涨</b></p>\n<p>雾芯科技涨12.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>涨11.93%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>涨10.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>涨10.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨9.66%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨9.54%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>涨8.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨超8.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">腾讯ADR</a>涨7.80%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨6.30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>涨3.30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨3.26%；新能源汽车股中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超5%。</p>\n<p><b>原油期货收高1.1%，天然气基本持平</b></p>\n<p>原油期货周四收高，部分挽回了周三遭受的损失。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>部表示没有释放战略石油储备的计划，这条消息令原油价格获得支撑。纽约商品交易所11月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨87美分，涨幅1.1%，收于每桶78.30美元。</p>\n<p><b>黄金期货收跌0.1%，初请失业数据令金价承压</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货周四收低，美国上周初请失业金人数下降、美债收益率小幅上涨，令金价承压。投资者等待周五即将公布的9月非农就业数据。纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.60美元，跌幅近0.1%，收于每盎司1759.20美元。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲股市周四全线上涨，奢侈品建筑业领涨</b></p>\n<p>欧洲股市全线上涨，因为石油和天然气价格小幅下降让担心通胀失控的投资者松了口气。另外，建筑和材料行业更新盈收为投资者带来乐观的情绪。泛欧斯托克600指数收盘上涨7.34点，涨幅1.63%，报458.58点；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨274.82点，涨幅1.84%，报15248.15点；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数收盘上涨84.02点，涨幅1.20%，报7079.89点；法国CAC40指数收盘上涨107.07点，涨幅1.65%，报6600.19点。</p>\n<p><b>国际宏观</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1103387097\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美参议院就紧急债务上限延长至12月初已达成一致</b></a></p>\n<p>美国参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）宣布，参议院已就将紧急债务上限延长至12月初的协议达成一致意见，该协议将防止美国政府在10月中旬出现国债违约。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173942578\" target=\"_blank\"><b>僵局缓解？分析人士：两党“大战”将在年底到来</b></a></p>\n<p>美国财长耶伦日前估计，政府可能在10月18日发生债务违约。在距离这一大限不到两周之际，民主党和共和党7日在提高债务上限问题上达成妥协。美国国会参议院共和党领袖麦康奈尔6日提出一项短期调高联邦政府债务上限的方案，而民主党周四接受这一方案。不过有评论称，这只是两党暂时“休兵”，“大战”将在年底到来。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173641942\" target=\"_blank\"><b>市场坚信美联储11月减码，除非就业数据比预期差太多</b></a></p>\n<p>20万！根据调查的八位策略师，如果美国非农就业人数是这个数，投资者将质疑经济健康状况，并使美国国债收益率近期内走低。这也会导致市场提高对美联储推迟减码或放慢减码步伐的押注。然而经济学家对非农就业人数的预估中值达50万，是这个数字的两倍多。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173942855\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国超级富豪撤离美债市场，持有规模降至17年来最低</b></a></p>\n<p>根据美联储近期的数据，美国超级富豪持有的美国国债和市政债数量少于近二十年前。截至6月 ，收入排名前1%家庭持有的此类资产总计8870亿美元，为17年来最低，远逊于10年前1.5万亿美元的峰值。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123606671\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国上周首次申领失业救济人数降幅超出预期</b></a></p>\n<p>美国上周首次申请失业救济人数普遍下降，表明劳动力市场持续改善。根据劳工部周四公布的数据，在截至10月2日当周，首次申领失业救济人数总计32.6万人，较前一周减少3.8万人。之前接受彭博调查的经济学家预期中值为降至34.8万人。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173858942\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国最新民调：拜登支持率降至38%</b></a></p>\n<p>据美国昆尼皮亚克大学发布的一项民意调查结果显示，大多数选民不认可总统拜登的执政表现。同时，他在独立选民中的支持率持续下跌。该民调显示，仅有38%的受访者对拜登的执政表现表示满意，53%的人表示不满意。上个月的同一民调显示，42%的人支持拜登的执政表现，50%的人不支持。</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173494253\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果公司遭遇荷兰政府反垄断调查</b></a></p>\n<p>据媒体报道，荷兰反垄断机构发现，苹果要求软件开发商使用其应用内支付系统的规定具有反竞争性，并责令其作出改变，四名知情人士在最新的一份报告中表示，iPhone正遭遇监管挫折。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173944045\" target=\"_blank\"><b>微软收购初创公司Ally.io 为Office扩张提前布局</b></a></p>\n<p>微软周四表示，该公司收购了Ally.io，这是一家提供软件以帮助组织跟踪关键目标进展的初创公司。但微软并没有披露交易条款。Ally.io的仪表板和可定制工具将成为微软Viva软件的一部分，该软件于2021年2月推出，可通过其流行的Teams应用程序访问。Viva为员工提供学习材料、公司文件信息和生产力建议。</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>：所有美国员工必须在12月8日前完成新冠疫苗接种</b></p>\n<p>IBM本周告诉美国员工，他们必须在12月8日之前完成新冠疫苗接种，否则将面临无薪停职。该公司在本周发给员工的一份备忘录中表示：“作为联邦承包商，IBM必须遵守这一规定。鉴于这一要求和我们许多客户和合作伙伴的政策，以及在全美范围内可轻松获得新冠疫苗接种，我们现在将要求所有IBM美国员工在2021年12月8日之前全面接种新冠疫苗，以便继续在IBM工作。”IBM收跌0.39%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2173294261\" target=\"_blank\"><b>辉瑞疫苗在美申请5至11岁年龄段紧急使用授权</b></a></p>\n<p>美国辉瑞公司当地时间7日向美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）提交在5岁至11岁年龄段使用新冠疫苗的紧急授权申请。辉瑞公司近日公布研究结果并向美国药管局提交了相关数据。在对2268名5岁至11岁儿童的试验结果显示，辉瑞疫苗安全且有效，未发现严重副作用。该年龄段群体需接种两剂疫苗，剂量是成年人的1/3。辉瑞制药收涨1.71%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1192920282\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Nikola与加拿大TC能源公司合作，计划在美加共同开发氢燃料中心</b></a></p>\n<p>电动卡车制造商Nikola Corp和加拿大能源公司TC Energy周四表示，双方已经同意就建设和运营大规模氢气燃料中心的计划进行合作，以生产尼古拉车辆所需的燃料。根据协议，两家公司计划在美国和加拿大建厂，并在未来五年内用生产的氢气燃料为尼古拉的8级燃料电池电动汽车（FCEV）提供动力。Nikola收涨4.51%.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>：维持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>跑赢大市评级 目标价450美元</b></p>\n<p>摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth表示，Facebook股价今年迄今累涨22%，但由于“大量负面消息”，股价较近期高点下跌了13%。分析师认为Facebook在Q3可以达到295亿美元的营收预期，并认为投资者对业绩的预期不会太高。分析师建议在股价回落时买入Facebook，表示之前也出现过负面信息，Facebook本身也在继续呼吁监管。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1149678416\" target=\"_blank\"><b>做空机构“盯上”法拉第未来，称永远也卖不出一辆车</b></a></p>\n<p>做空机构 J Capital Research 发布了一份关于法拉第未来的做空报告，称这是“新兴的电动汽车骗局”。J Capital 在其报告中表示 :\" 我们认为，电动法拉第未来永远也卖不出一辆车。到目前为止，它不过是一个从美国投资者那里募集资金的桶，然后把钱倒进其债务黑洞。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1187789459\" target=\"_blank\"><b>特斯拉：目标是到2030年实现年销量2000万辆</b></a></p>\n<p>特斯拉2021股东大会在得州新工厂举行。特斯拉CEO马斯克表示，有信心能保持至少50%的交付量增长率，由于供应链的成本压力，不得不暂时提价，希望芯片短缺“将很快缓解”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130558848","content_text":"摘要：美股三大指数集体收涨；热门中概股收盘全线走高，新能源汽车股大涨；美参议院就紧急债务上限延长至12月初已达成一致；美国最新民调：拜登支持率降至38%；苹果公司遭遇荷兰政府反垄断调查；特斯拉：目标到2030年实现年销量2000万辆>>>\n\n海外市场\n收盘：美参院就债务上限达成一致，美股周四收高\n美股周四收高。美国参议院两党就短期内提高债务上限达成一致，将暂时避免出现前所未有的债务违约。市场等待周五将公布的重要非农就业数据。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.98%，报34,754.94点；标普500指数涨0.83%，报4,399.76点；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.05%，报14,654.00点。\n热门中概股收盘全线走高，新能源汽车股大涨\n雾芯科技涨12.26%，有道涨11.93%，虎牙涨10.88%，知乎涨10.79%，爱奇艺涨9.66%，哔哩哔哩涨9.54%，网易涨8.29%，阿里巴巴涨超8.26%，腾讯ADR涨7.80%，拼多多涨6.30%，滴滴涨3.30%，好未来涨3.26%；新能源汽车股中，小鹏汽车涨超7%，蔚来汽车涨近7%，理想汽车涨超5%。\n原油期货收高1.1%，天然气基本持平\n原油期货周四收高，部分挽回了周三遭受的损失。美国能源部表示没有释放战略石油储备的计划，这条消息令原油价格获得支撑。纽约商品交易所11月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨87美分，涨幅1.1%，收于每桶78.30美元。\n黄金期货收跌0.1%，初请失业数据令金价承压\n黄金期货周四收低，美国上周初请失业金人数下降、美债收益率小幅上涨，令金价承压。投资者等待周五即将公布的9月非农就业数据。纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.60美元，跌幅近0.1%，收于每盎司1759.20美元。\n欧洲股市周四全线上涨，奢侈品建筑业领涨\n欧洲股市全线上涨，因为石油和天然气价格小幅下降让担心通胀失控的投资者松了口气。另外，建筑和材料行业更新盈收为投资者带来乐观的情绪。泛欧斯托克600指数收盘上涨7.34点，涨幅1.63%，报458.58点；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨274.82点，涨幅1.84%，报15248.15点；英国富时100指数收盘上涨84.02点，涨幅1.20%，报7079.89点；法国CAC40指数收盘上涨107.07点，涨幅1.65%，报6600.19点。\n国际宏观\n美参议院就紧急债务上限延长至12月初已达成一致\n美国参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）宣布，参议院已就将紧急债务上限延长至12月初的协议达成一致意见，该协议将防止美国政府在10月中旬出现国债违约。\n僵局缓解？分析人士：两党“大战”将在年底到来\n美国财长耶伦日前估计，政府可能在10月18日发生债务违约。在距离这一大限不到两周之际，民主党和共和党7日在提高债务上限问题上达成妥协。美国国会参议院共和党领袖麦康奈尔6日提出一项短期调高联邦政府债务上限的方案，而民主党周四接受这一方案。不过有评论称，这只是两党暂时“休兵”，“大战”将在年底到来。\n市场坚信美联储11月减码，除非就业数据比预期差太多\n20万！根据调查的八位策略师，如果美国非农就业人数是这个数，投资者将质疑经济健康状况，并使美国国债收益率近期内走低。这也会导致市场提高对美联储推迟减码或放慢减码步伐的押注。然而经济学家对非农就业人数的预估中值达50万，是这个数字的两倍多。\n美国超级富豪撤离美债市场，持有规模降至17年来最低\n根据美联储近期的数据，美国超级富豪持有的美国国债和市政债数量少于近二十年前。截至6月 ，收入排名前1%家庭持有的此类资产总计8870亿美元，为17年来最低，远逊于10年前1.5万亿美元的峰值。\n美国上周首次申领失业救济人数降幅超出预期\n美国上周首次申请失业救济人数普遍下降，表明劳动力市场持续改善。根据劳工部周四公布的数据，在截至10月2日当周，首次申领失业救济人数总计32.6万人，较前一周减少3.8万人。之前接受彭博调查的经济学家预期中值为降至34.8万人。\n美国最新民调：拜登支持率降至38%\n据美国昆尼皮亚克大学发布的一项民意调查结果显示，大多数选民不认可总统拜登的执政表现。同时，他在独立选民中的支持率持续下跌。该民调显示，仅有38%的受访者对拜登的执政表现表示满意，53%的人表示不满意。上个月的同一民调显示，42%的人支持拜登的执政表现，50%的人不支持。\n公司新闻\n苹果公司遭遇荷兰政府反垄断调查\n据媒体报道，荷兰反垄断机构发现，苹果要求软件开发商使用其应用内支付系统的规定具有反竞争性，并责令其作出改变，四名知情人士在最新的一份报告中表示，iPhone正遭遇监管挫折。\n微软收购初创公司Ally.io 为Office扩张提前布局\n微软周四表示，该公司收购了Ally.io，这是一家提供软件以帮助组织跟踪关键目标进展的初创公司。但微软并没有披露交易条款。Ally.io的仪表板和可定制工具将成为微软Viva软件的一部分，该软件于2021年2月推出，可通过其流行的Teams应用程序访问。Viva为员工提供学习材料、公司文件信息和生产力建议。\nIBM：所有美国员工必须在12月8日前完成新冠疫苗接种\nIBM本周告诉美国员工，他们必须在12月8日之前完成新冠疫苗接种，否则将面临无薪停职。该公司在本周发给员工的一份备忘录中表示：“作为联邦承包商，IBM必须遵守这一规定。鉴于这一要求和我们许多客户和合作伙伴的政策，以及在全美范围内可轻松获得新冠疫苗接种，我们现在将要求所有IBM美国员工在2021年12月8日之前全面接种新冠疫苗，以便继续在IBM工作。”IBM收跌0.39%。\n辉瑞疫苗在美申请5至11岁年龄段紧急使用授权\n美国辉瑞公司当地时间7日向美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）提交在5岁至11岁年龄段使用新冠疫苗的紧急授权申请。辉瑞公司近日公布研究结果并向美国药管局提交了相关数据。在对2268名5岁至11岁儿童的试验结果显示，辉瑞疫苗安全且有效，未发现严重副作用。该年龄段群体需接种两剂疫苗，剂量是成年人的1/3。辉瑞制药收涨1.71%。\nNikola与加拿大TC能源公司合作，计划在美加共同开发氢燃料中心\n电动卡车制造商Nikola Corp和加拿大能源公司TC Energy周四表示，双方已经同意就建设和运营大规模氢气燃料中心的计划进行合作，以生产尼古拉车辆所需的燃料。根据协议，两家公司计划在美国和加拿大建厂，并在未来五年内用生产的氢气燃料为尼古拉的8级燃料电池电动汽车（FCEV）提供动力。Nikola收涨4.51%.\n摩根大通：维持Facebook跑赢大市评级 目标价450美元\n摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth表示，Facebook股价今年迄今累涨22%，但由于“大量负面消息”，股价较近期高点下跌了13%。分析师认为Facebook在Q3可以达到295亿美元的营收预期，并认为投资者对业绩的预期不会太高。分析师建议在股价回落时买入Facebook，表示之前也出现过负面信息，Facebook本身也在继续呼吁监管。\n做空机构“盯上”法拉第未来，称永远也卖不出一辆车\n做空机构 J Capital Research 发布了一份关于法拉第未来的做空报告，称这是“新兴的电动汽车骗局”。J Capital 在其报告中表示 :\" 我们认为，电动法拉第未来永远也卖不出一辆车。到目前为止，它不过是一个从美国投资者那里募集资金的桶，然后把钱倒进其债务黑洞。\n特斯拉：目标是到2030年实现年销量2000万辆\n特斯拉2021股东大会在得州新工厂举行。特斯拉CEO马斯克表示，有信心能保持至少50%的交付量增长率，由于供应链的成本压力，不得不暂时提价，希望芯片短缺“将很快缓解”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353951580,"gmtCreate":1616457455740,"gmtModify":1616457455740,"author":{"id":"3572755522033854","authorId":"3572755522033854","name":"martingogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/324e80eb467177c9e935210d1bbfb556","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572755522033854","authorIdStr":"3572755522033854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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