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投就投机

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2021-12-08

$小米集团-W(01810)$雷军昨天辞去董事长/法定代表人职务了？？[哟哟]

2021-06-07

$AMC院线(AMC)$空军等着爆仓吧！！🛫🛫🛫

2021-06-07

$AMC院线(AMC)$冲冲冲🛫🛫🛫🛫

2021-06-07

$AMC院线(AMC)$起飞🛫🛫🛫

2021-06-04

$AMC院线(AMC)$60以上有可能砸盘

2021-06-03

华为携众多品牌围剿小米生态链了！

小米OV缺席，谁能帮鸿蒙突破16%生死线？

2021-04-07

$Vuzix(VUZI)$往上看

2021-03-23

$Vuzix(VUZI)$29.95减了半仓上升阻力有点大

2021-03-23

$Vuzix(VUZI)$几天前入的拉爆！！！

2021-02-26

$游戏驿站(GME)$快跑快跑

2021-02-26

$游戏驿站(GME)$心脏受不了了跑了跑了

2021-02-25

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 现在做空是真不怕爆场

2021-02-25

$游戏驿站(GME)$140卖165在买回来

2021-02-24

$云米科技(VIOT)$什么时候能回本[捂脸]

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14:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米OV缺席，谁能帮鸿蒙突破16%生死线？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140447716","media":"连线Insight","summary":"今年，鸿蒙能完成覆盖3亿台设备的目标吗？","content":"<html><body><div><p>编者按：本文来自微信公众号“连线Insight”（ID:lxinsight），作者：周晓奇，编辑:子夜，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>经授权发布。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_f51d6177980640f2bdc569ce7d094ad0_img_png\"/></p>\n<p> “万物互联时代，没有人会是一座孤岛。”发布会结束之际，华为常务董事、消费者业务CEO余承东语气激昂地表示。 </p>\n<p>6月2日，华为正式发布HarmonyOS 2系统，同时推出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手表、平板、耳机等多款搭载了HarmonyOS 2系统的智能设备。 </p>\n<p>此次发布会的主角无疑是HarmonyOS 2系统，在一个半小时的发布会内，主要由华为消费者业务、软件部总裁王成录演示HarmonyOS 2系统的智能、便捷、流畅等特性，以及华为消费者业务首席运营官何刚展示华为最新的智能硬件设备。 </p>\n<p>当然，这次华为发布的智能设备均搭载了HarmonyOS 2系统，同时华为也将陆续向华为手机、平板、智慧屏等智能终端设备推送升级HarmonyOS 2，计划在明年上半年实现“百”款设备升级HarmonyOS 2。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_8798c99facb04005b989a522ec684ab9_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>华为设备升级名单，图源华为官方 </p>\n<p>不过，令人遗憾的是，华为P50系列手机仍未发布，“因为一些众所周知的原因，华为P50系列手机的上市时间还没有确定。”余承东表示。 </p>\n<p>2019年8月，余承东在华为开发者大会上正式发布HarmonyOS，如今HarmonyOS正式搭载在智能手机上，HarmonyOS可谓“备胎”转正。 </p>\n<p>此后，鸿蒙操作系统的主要目标无疑是搭载在更多的智能设备上，华为也早就定下了3亿的“小目标”，即在2021年覆盖3亿台以上的设备，其中2亿来自华为自主的手机、手表、平板等设备，1亿面向生态合作伙伴的各类终端设备。 </p>\n<p>从这次发布会也可以看出，华为受制裁后，智能手机业务已然一落千丈，短期内难以恢复往日的辉煌。因此，华为选择从手表、手环，以及IoT设备突破，这一另寻出路的方式，或许能够帮助华为达成2亿的目标。 </p>\n<p>另外1亿的目标，华为选择与生态伙伴达成合作。发布会上，王成录也展示了支持HarmonyOS Connect的美的蒸烤箱、海尔电冰箱、九阳豆浆机等智能设备的使用技巧。 </p>\n<p>“鸿蒙系统已经推出两年，最开始其实华为就先用在了智慧屏等设备上，这其实是非常聪明的做法。”第一手机网研究院院长孙燕飚表示。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_3372d318d81143c0afd193be9d9e8a82_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>华为合作伙伴，图源华为官方 </p>\n<p>华为自然预料到被制裁后，智能手机业务会遇到重创，其也早就开始为鸿蒙系统拓宽新场景。 </p>\n<p>今年4月，在上海车展上华为展出了智能汽车解决方案的多项技术，其中鸿蒙OS车机操作系统备受关注，这也意味着鸿蒙操作系统已经进入智能汽车领域。 </p>\n<p>不过，鸿蒙操作系统要想活下来，也不是一件易事。纵观过往，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、阿里等国内外巨头都推出过自己的操作系统，但无一例外均以失败告终。 </p>\n<p>“现在鸿蒙操作系统占据了天时地利人和，但其要想真正跑出来，一定要找到适合自己的商业模式，这是鸿蒙今后成长的关键因素。”孙燕飚向连线Insight表示。</p>\n<h2>HarmonyOS：智能操控，何止是手机？ </h2>\n<p>HarmonyOS 2终于来了。 </p>\n<p>在一个半小时的发布会内，王成录用了大半时间介绍了HarmonyOS 2，他提到“HarmonyOS是新一代智能终端操作系统，为不同设备的智能化、互联与协同提供统一的语言。” </p>\n<p>在华为的设定中，HarmonyOS是一套面向整个智能硬件生态的系统，也就是说其不仅适用于手机，更适用各种智能硬件，如手表、手环、智慧屏、家电等。 </p>\n<p>HarmonyOS为不同设备的智能化、互联与协同提供统一的语言，基于分布式技术，HarmonyOS改善了硬件产品之间互联互通的体验，让手机、平板、手表、智慧屏等智能设备轻松联接了起来。 </p>\n<p>具体来说，以往不同硬件设备要想联接在一起，需要通过数据线等辅助设备，或蓝牙等功能。HarmonyOS则建立了一个“超级终端”的概念，不同的硬件设备组成了一个超级终端，通过超级终端不同硬件可以实现简单快捷地切换。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_7b899c0aefb543ccaf41db808e01cd0f_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>超级终端控制，图源华为</p>\n<p>比如，当用户在室外用手机看电影，回到室内可以通过“超级终端”将智慧屏图标拉向手机，视频画面就自动由手机接续到了智慧屏上播放，无须任何辅助设施。假设场景升级，用户想通过耳机看视频，则同样通过“超级终端”将耳机图标拉至手机，三台不同硬件设备即完美联接在一起。 </p>\n<p>与此同时，在组成超级终端的任何设备上，用户都能看到其他设备的任务，并能随时切换到其他设备。例如用手机打游戏不方便，只需要上滑悬停调出后台，把任务发送给平板或电脑，即可用更大屏幕继续打游戏。 </p>\n<p>在HarmonyOS的设定中，不同设备间的自然连接与互动是顺畅且便捷的，这也是万物互联时代带给用户最大的区别。 </p>\n<p>“现在5G的芯片、组件的工艺愈发成熟，随着功耗下降、组件变小，其可以安装到更小的硬件设备上，这也在加速万物互联时代的到来。”孙燕飚表示。 </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_4772445d92c1400088a47641887c7b6c_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>图源华为发布会 </p>\n<p>不过，虽然当前HarmonyOS已经实现多产品间的互联互通，但主要还是需要基于华为庞大的硬件生态链，简单来说要有硬件设备搭载HarmonyOS系统，其才能发挥作用，否则一切都是空谈。 </p>\n<p>此前，余承东曾透露华为已售出超过10亿台全场景智慧连接设备，其中在网手机超7亿台，约90%的华为存量和在售手机都可升级鸿蒙操作系统。 </p>\n<p>这次发布会，余承东也公布了HarmonyOS 2百机升级计划。具体规划为，6月2日当天，华为Mate40、Mate40Pro、Mate40pro+、P40、P40Pro以及华为平板MatePad Pro等设备可直接升级HarmonyOS 2系统；到今年第三季度，华为Mate Xs、Mate 20、nova 8等设备支持升级HarmonyOS 2系统；第四季度还有一批华为设备可进行升级，到2022年上半年实现百款设备升级HarmonyOS 2。 </p>\n<p>不过，仅靠华为自身产品，显然无法让HarmonyOS系统真正成为独立的操作系统，其更需要与各大智能硬件厂商合作，让更多智能硬件设备搭载HarmonyOS系统。 </p>\n<p>为此，除华为自有设备外，HUAWEI HiLink（面向消费领域的智能硬件开放生态）全新升级HarmonyOS Connect，智能家居与手机经过轻触即可连接。 </p>\n<p>发布会上，王成录也演示了支持HarmonyOS Connect的硬件设备，变得多么“智能”。比如，美的蒸烤箱可以选择菜谱一键烹饪、海尔电冰箱可以根据不同食材的保鲜要求智能变温、九阳豆浆机可以根据不同个体的健康数据推荐饮品。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_b6e9b341b9a745d4a0db8cd223bd10de_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>搭载HarmonyOS Connect的美的蒸烤箱，图源华为 </p>\n<p>所有硬件设备似乎更方便使用了，也更懂使用者的需求了。但一切的基础，仍需要建立在不同硬件设备厂商愿意搭载HarmonyOS系统，这也是华为接下来的重大考验。 </p>\n<h2>核心手机业务失守，鸿蒙需要合作伙伴 </h2>\n<p>经过多轮制裁后，如今在全球手机出货量榜单上，已然不见华为踪影。 </p>\n<p>据市场研究机构Strategy Analytics公布的2021年第一季度全球手机出货量报告显示，当季度全球智能手机出货量达到3.4亿台，同比增长24%，增长率创下2015年来的新高。 </p>\n<p>具体来看，榜上有名的前五名手机厂商，同比增幅最低为32%，最高达到了85%，而华为却被归为了“其他”。 </p>\n<p>在智能手机阵地上，华为已经失守，但智能手机是承载移动端应用和物联网服务的重要载体，同样也是鸿蒙的重要入口。 </p>\n<p>“在全球消费电子类产品中，智能手机体量相对较高，总体出货量用数亿来计算，接下来可能就是智能手表、智能手环、智能家电等产品，总体出货量也不错，但现阶段无法和手机相提并论。”孙燕飚表示，“华为失去手机这一重要入口后，肯定需要更多的‘蚂蚁雄兵’，也就是更多智能设备来支持鸿蒙系统建立生态。” </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_4fca4d317d534a3ba83e9c139a5d40b5_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>华为自然意识到这一点，“我们希望与更多合作伙伴、开发者共同繁荣鸿蒙生态，为全球消费者提供更好的体验、更好的产品、更好的服务。”发布会上，余承东再次号召道。 </p>\n<p>为了让鸿蒙系统快速成长，华为的确已经多方寻求合作伙伴，其中家电厂商无疑是最佳切入口。 </p>\n<p>尽管家电设备与用户的交互频率可能以天计算，用户一天甚至多天才会使用一次，远不如与手机交互频繁，但只要占据家居场景，且用户使用过一款搭载鸿蒙系统的硬件设备后，只要体验感够好，很可能接下来也会选择搭载鸿蒙系统的设备。 </p>\n<p>反向来讲，以往用户拥有一台华为手机后，更可能选择购买搭载鸿蒙系统的其他硬件设备，现在有可能用户拥有一台搭载鸿蒙系统的设备后，进而在更长的时间周期内，选择购买一款华为手机来更方便地操控各种硬件设备。 </p>\n<p>为此，华为也在加大与智能硬件厂商的合作。此前，美的已经上市了数十款搭载鸿蒙系统的家电产品，今年美的宣布与鸿蒙的合作将规模化，覆盖全品类、近200个SKU。 </p>\n<p>国内家电厂商也是鸿蒙系统的直接受益方，原本家电厂商的智能硬件通过安卓系统下进行互联，其连接成本高昂，而且即使连接后还需要用户下载专门的APP进行操控，这无疑增加了用户使用成本。 </p>\n<p>换句话来说，用户不可能每买一个不同厂商的智能设备，就在手机上下载一个专门的APP进行操控，这样既不方便，也不够智能。 </p>\n<p>可以说，在一定程度上，鸿蒙系统的确让国内家电设备更智能，也更方便使用。为此，在美的与鸿蒙合作后，九阳、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002508\">老板电器</a>等一众家电厂商均与鸿蒙展开了合作。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_f0f459c8ad8a439e8230ff408c0fea5b_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>搭载HarmonyOS Connect的九阳豆浆机，图源华为 </p>\n<p>当前，鸿蒙生态中已经有1000多家硬件厂商，今后这一数量也将持续上涨。 </p>\n<p>除了与更多硬件厂商合作，华为也在为鸿蒙寻找更多新场景。 </p>\n<p>智能汽车，无疑成为了鸿蒙OS的下一个重点场景。 </p>\n<p>去年北京车展期间，华为正式发布智能座舱解决方案，其包含Harmony（鸿蒙）车机OS软件平台、Harmony车域生态平台以及智能硬件三大平台。 </p>\n<p>在华为的介绍中，Harmony车机OS定义了HMS-A（HMS for Auto，包括：语音、音效、视觉、AI等7大核心能力）、12个车机子系统和500多个HOS-C API，用以构建面向车场景的OS软件平台。 </p>\n<p>据华为表示，目前鸿蒙OS智能座舱解决方案已获得30多家硬件合作伙伴、50多家应用生态合作伙伴支持，今后还将继续加大与汽车及应用领域的开放和合作力度。 </p>\n<p>今年4月举办的上海车展上，华为也展出了智能汽车解决方案的多项技术，鸿蒙OS车机操作系统更是其中重要一环。 </p>\n<p>当前，鸿蒙OS车机操作系统也已经正式“上车”，北汽极狐合作阿尔法S是首款搭载华为鸿蒙OS车机操作系统的车型。 </p>\n<p>当前，华为还在与长安、广汽开展深度合作，今后鸿蒙OS车机操作系统也将搭载在更多车型上。 </p>\n<p>“蚂蚁雄兵”已然在路上，但鸿蒙系统要想突破16%市占率的生死线，还需要更先进的商业模式，以及更完善的生态体系。</p>\n<h2>鸿蒙创造历史，但如何突破16%生死线？ </h2>\n<p>“我们分析了过去二十年PC产业和移动产业的生态发展，发现16%的市场占有量是一个分水岭，超过16%的生态基本就成功了。”今年1月，王成录在接受媒体采访时提到了定3亿台搭载鸿蒙设备的原因。 </p>\n<p>市场占有量决定一切。当前，在移动终端操作系统领域，Android和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>iOS分庭抗礼，占据绝对优势。 </p>\n<p>据StatCounter数据，2020年4月至2021年4月，移动端操作系统市场份额上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>ndroid系统占比达72.2%，苹果iOS占比为26.99%，其他操作系统市场份额占比不足1%。 </p>\n<p>从全球操作系统市场（包括移动端和PC端）份额来看，截至2021年4月，Android市场份额为40.63%、Windows市场份额为31.94%、苹果iOS市场份额为16.26%、苹果OS X市场份额为6.83%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_146ce4a7198f4506b066be7db4f94f44_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>2009-2021年全球不同手机操作系统的市场份额，图源StatCounter </p>\n<p>在竞争激烈的市场里，华为能不能突破生死线？ </p>\n<p>就在上月，Google举行了一年一度的Google I/O开发者大会，正式介绍了最新一代安卓系统Android 12，而在其公布的合作伙伴名单中剔除了华为。 </p>\n<p>这意味着，Android 12不再适配华为手机。这是华为继失去芯片后，受到的又一大重创。</p>\n<p>今后，华为不管在芯片层面，还是在操作系统层面，均已被全面“封禁”，自力更生也成为华为唯一的道路。 </p>\n<p>尽管Android 12还需要一段时间才能正式上线，但小米、OPPO、vivo等多家国内手机厂商均表示将率先升级Android 12系统。 </p>\n<p>不过，鸿蒙系统要想真正走出来，势必要拉拢各大手机厂商，这也是华为能否突破生死线的关键。 </p>\n<p>当前，魅族已经宣布与鸿蒙展开合作，但仅是旗下智能家居板块接入鸿蒙系统，并不涉及手机业务。 </p>\n<p>“当前来看，国内手机厂商短期肯定不会用鸿蒙系统。一方面是鸿蒙系统体验如何还不清楚，有待观察；另一方面从商业角度，鸿蒙系统也没有明确的商业模式，企业总不可能做赔本的买卖。”孙燕飚向连线Insight表示。 </p>\n<p>从过往来看，微软、三星、阿里均前赴后继推出过自己的操作系统，但无一例外全部失败了，其原因一方面是受到安卓、苹果的影响。 </p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>曾经威胁计划首发阿里YunOS的手机厂商宏碁在谷歌GMS与YunOS二选一，这直接遏制其他操作系统发展的可能，另一方面其他操作系统没有找到合适的商业模式，也是一大问题。 </p>\n<p>“一直以来，苹果依靠分成模式，建立了一套稳固的生态链体系，而安卓此前并没有找到合适自己的商业模式，后来才通过广告建立起了稳固的商业帝国。”孙燕飚表示，“鸿蒙除了海量的用户、海量的终端，更需要搭建一套成熟的商业模式。” </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20210603/v2_111819145d7a484b977db3a7b81c6594_img_000\"/></p>\n<p>在今年4月华为全球分析师大会上，华为副董事长、轮值董事长徐直军也透露，在2018年底，董事会决定投资20亿美元提升软件能力，在5年周期内，软件工程能力再提升一个台阶。同时也在寻求软件方面的机会，加大投入，提升软件和服务的收入。 </p>\n<p>当下，或许华为也还在探索鸿蒙的商业模式，这是未来鸿蒙能否发展壮大的关键因素。 </p>\n<p>需要注意的是，鸿蒙不是专属手机的操作系统，王成录此前表示华为绝不会再做一个安卓或者再做一个iOS，如果再做一个一样的智能终端的操作系统，是没有价值的。 </p>\n<p>为此，瞄准万物互联才是鸿蒙的最终目标，而这也给了鸿蒙发展的机会。 </p>\n<p>“我们已经进入了后手机时代，未来的手机可能会被拆解成一块屏幕、一副眼镜，甚至一些我们无法想象的载体，这正是鸿蒙发展的最佳时机。”孙燕飚表示。 </p>\n<p>HarmonyOS 2系统发布会结束后，黑底屏幕上出现一行行白字，其中“今天我们一起创造了历史”尤为醒目。 </p>\n<p>鸿蒙已经正式上路，它是华为在绝境中求生的重要一役，是否能赢，决定了华为未来的发展方向。 </p></div></body></html>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米OV缺席，谁能帮鸿蒙突破16%生死线？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 14:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1252202186344968><strong>连线Insight</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>编者按：本文来自微信公众号“连线Insight”（ID:lxinsight），作者：周晓奇，编辑:子夜，36氪经授权发布。\n\n “万物互联时代，没有人会是一座孤岛。”发布会结束之际，华为常务董事、消费者业务CEO余承东语气激昂地表示。 \n6月2日，华为正式发布HarmonyOS 2系统，同时推出了智能手表、平板、耳机等多款搭载了HarmonyOS 2系统的智能设备。 \n此次发布会的主角无疑是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1252202186344968\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb44f0df3fb7312ee913474e800cc495","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1252202186344968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140447716","content_text":"编者按：本文来自微信公众号“连线Insight”（ID:lxinsight），作者：周晓奇，编辑:子夜，36氪经授权发布。\n\n “万物互联时代，没有人会是一座孤岛。”发布会结束之际，华为常务董事、消费者业务CEO余承东语气激昂地表示。 \n6月2日，华为正式发布HarmonyOS 2系统，同时推出了智能手表、平板、耳机等多款搭载了HarmonyOS 2系统的智能设备。 \n此次发布会的主角无疑是HarmonyOS 2系统，在一个半小时的发布会内，主要由华为消费者业务、软件部总裁王成录演示HarmonyOS 2系统的智能、便捷、流畅等特性，以及华为消费者业务首席运营官何刚展示华为最新的智能硬件设备。 \n当然，这次华为发布的智能设备均搭载了HarmonyOS 2系统，同时华为也将陆续向华为手机、平板、智慧屏等智能终端设备推送升级HarmonyOS 2，计划在明年上半年实现“百”款设备升级HarmonyOS 2。\n\n华为设备升级名单，图源华为官方 \n不过，令人遗憾的是，华为P50系列手机仍未发布，“因为一些众所周知的原因，华为P50系列手机的上市时间还没有确定。”余承东表示。 \n2019年8月，余承东在华为开发者大会上正式发布HarmonyOS，如今HarmonyOS正式搭载在智能手机上，HarmonyOS可谓“备胎”转正。 \n此后，鸿蒙操作系统的主要目标无疑是搭载在更多的智能设备上，华为也早就定下了3亿的“小目标”，即在2021年覆盖3亿台以上的设备，其中2亿来自华为自主的手机、手表、平板等设备，1亿面向生态合作伙伴的各类终端设备。 \n从这次发布会也可以看出，华为受制裁后，智能手机业务已然一落千丈，短期内难以恢复往日的辉煌。因此，华为选择从手表、手环，以及IoT设备突破，这一另寻出路的方式，或许能够帮助华为达成2亿的目标。 \n另外1亿的目标，华为选择与生态伙伴达成合作。发布会上，王成录也展示了支持HarmonyOS Connect的美的蒸烤箱、海尔电冰箱、九阳豆浆机等智能设备的使用技巧。 \n“鸿蒙系统已经推出两年，最开始其实华为就先用在了智慧屏等设备上，这其实是非常聪明的做法。”第一手机网研究院院长孙燕飚表示。\n\n华为合作伙伴，图源华为官方 \n华为自然预料到被制裁后，智能手机业务会遇到重创，其也早就开始为鸿蒙系统拓宽新场景。 \n今年4月，在上海车展上华为展出了智能汽车解决方案的多项技术，其中鸿蒙OS车机操作系统备受关注，这也意味着鸿蒙操作系统已经进入智能汽车领域。 \n不过，鸿蒙操作系统要想活下来，也不是一件易事。纵观过往，三星、微软、阿里等国内外巨头都推出过自己的操作系统，但无一例外均以失败告终。 \n“现在鸿蒙操作系统占据了天时地利人和，但其要想真正跑出来，一定要找到适合自己的商业模式，这是鸿蒙今后成长的关键因素。”孙燕飚向连线Insight表示。\nHarmonyOS：智能操控，何止是手机？ \nHarmonyOS 2终于来了。 \n在一个半小时的发布会内，王成录用了大半时间介绍了HarmonyOS 2，他提到“HarmonyOS是新一代智能终端操作系统，为不同设备的智能化、互联与协同提供统一的语言。” \n在华为的设定中，HarmonyOS是一套面向整个智能硬件生态的系统，也就是说其不仅适用于手机，更适用各种智能硬件，如手表、手环、智慧屏、家电等。 \nHarmonyOS为不同设备的智能化、互联与协同提供统一的语言，基于分布式技术，HarmonyOS改善了硬件产品之间互联互通的体验，让手机、平板、手表、智慧屏等智能设备轻松联接了起来。 \n具体来说，以往不同硬件设备要想联接在一起，需要通过数据线等辅助设备，或蓝牙等功能。HarmonyOS则建立了一个“超级终端”的概念，不同的硬件设备组成了一个超级终端，通过超级终端不同硬件可以实现简单快捷地切换。\n\n超级终端控制，图源华为\n比如，当用户在室外用手机看电影，回到室内可以通过“超级终端”将智慧屏图标拉向手机，视频画面就自动由手机接续到了智慧屏上播放，无须任何辅助设施。假设场景升级，用户想通过耳机看视频，则同样通过“超级终端”将耳机图标拉至手机，三台不同硬件设备即完美联接在一起。 \n与此同时，在组成超级终端的任何设备上，用户都能看到其他设备的任务，并能随时切换到其他设备。例如用手机打游戏不方便，只需要上滑悬停调出后台，把任务发送给平板或电脑，即可用更大屏幕继续打游戏。 \n在HarmonyOS的设定中，不同设备间的自然连接与互动是顺畅且便捷的，这也是万物互联时代带给用户最大的区别。 \n“现在5G的芯片、组件的工艺愈发成熟，随着功耗下降、组件变小，其可以安装到更小的硬件设备上，这也在加速万物互联时代的到来。”孙燕飚表示。 \n\n图源华为发布会 \n不过，虽然当前HarmonyOS已经实现多产品间的互联互通，但主要还是需要基于华为庞大的硬件生态链，简单来说要有硬件设备搭载HarmonyOS系统，其才能发挥作用，否则一切都是空谈。 \n此前，余承东曾透露华为已售出超过10亿台全场景智慧连接设备，其中在网手机超7亿台，约90%的华为存量和在售手机都可升级鸿蒙操作系统。 \n这次发布会，余承东也公布了HarmonyOS 2百机升级计划。具体规划为，6月2日当天，华为Mate40、Mate40Pro、Mate40pro+、P40、P40Pro以及华为平板MatePad Pro等设备可直接升级HarmonyOS 2系统；到今年第三季度，华为Mate Xs、Mate 20、nova 8等设备支持升级HarmonyOS 2系统；第四季度还有一批华为设备可进行升级，到2022年上半年实现百款设备升级HarmonyOS 2。 \n不过，仅靠华为自身产品，显然无法让HarmonyOS系统真正成为独立的操作系统，其更需要与各大智能硬件厂商合作，让更多智能硬件设备搭载HarmonyOS系统。 \n为此，除华为自有设备外，HUAWEI HiLink（面向消费领域的智能硬件开放生态）全新升级HarmonyOS Connect，智能家居与手机经过轻触即可连接。 \n发布会上，王成录也演示了支持HarmonyOS Connect的硬件设备，变得多么“智能”。比如，美的蒸烤箱可以选择菜谱一键烹饪、海尔电冰箱可以根据不同食材的保鲜要求智能变温、九阳豆浆机可以根据不同个体的健康数据推荐饮品。\n\n搭载HarmonyOS Connect的美的蒸烤箱，图源华为 \n所有硬件设备似乎更方便使用了，也更懂使用者的需求了。但一切的基础，仍需要建立在不同硬件设备厂商愿意搭载HarmonyOS系统，这也是华为接下来的重大考验。 \n核心手机业务失守，鸿蒙需要合作伙伴 \n经过多轮制裁后，如今在全球手机出货量榜单上，已然不见华为踪影。 \n据市场研究机构Strategy Analytics公布的2021年第一季度全球手机出货量报告显示，当季度全球智能手机出货量达到3.4亿台，同比增长24%，增长率创下2015年来的新高。 \n具体来看，榜上有名的前五名手机厂商，同比增幅最低为32%，最高达到了85%，而华为却被归为了“其他”。 \n在智能手机阵地上，华为已经失守，但智能手机是承载移动端应用和物联网服务的重要载体，同样也是鸿蒙的重要入口。 \n“在全球消费电子类产品中，智能手机体量相对较高，总体出货量用数亿来计算，接下来可能就是智能手表、智能手环、智能家电等产品，总体出货量也不错，但现阶段无法和手机相提并论。”孙燕飚表示，“华为失去手机这一重要入口后，肯定需要更多的‘蚂蚁雄兵’，也就是更多智能设备来支持鸿蒙系统建立生态。” \n\n华为自然意识到这一点，“我们希望与更多合作伙伴、开发者共同繁荣鸿蒙生态，为全球消费者提供更好的体验、更好的产品、更好的服务。”发布会上，余承东再次号召道。 \n为了让鸿蒙系统快速成长，华为的确已经多方寻求合作伙伴，其中家电厂商无疑是最佳切入口。 \n尽管家电设备与用户的交互频率可能以天计算，用户一天甚至多天才会使用一次，远不如与手机交互频繁，但只要占据家居场景，且用户使用过一款搭载鸿蒙系统的硬件设备后，只要体验感够好，很可能接下来也会选择搭载鸿蒙系统的设备。 \n反向来讲，以往用户拥有一台华为手机后，更可能选择购买搭载鸿蒙系统的其他硬件设备，现在有可能用户拥有一台搭载鸿蒙系统的设备后，进而在更长的时间周期内，选择购买一款华为手机来更方便地操控各种硬件设备。 \n为此，华为也在加大与智能硬件厂商的合作。此前，美的已经上市了数十款搭载鸿蒙系统的家电产品，今年美的宣布与鸿蒙的合作将规模化，覆盖全品类、近200个SKU。 \n国内家电厂商也是鸿蒙系统的直接受益方，原本家电厂商的智能硬件通过安卓系统下进行互联，其连接成本高昂，而且即使连接后还需要用户下载专门的APP进行操控，这无疑增加了用户使用成本。 \n换句话来说，用户不可能每买一个不同厂商的智能设备，就在手机上下载一个专门的APP进行操控，这样既不方便，也不够智能。 \n可以说，在一定程度上，鸿蒙系统的确让国内家电设备更智能，也更方便使用。为此，在美的与鸿蒙合作后，九阳、老板电器等一众家电厂商均与鸿蒙展开了合作。\n\n搭载HarmonyOS Connect的九阳豆浆机，图源华为 \n当前，鸿蒙生态中已经有1000多家硬件厂商，今后这一数量也将持续上涨。 \n除了与更多硬件厂商合作，华为也在为鸿蒙寻找更多新场景。 \n智能汽车，无疑成为了鸿蒙OS的下一个重点场景。 \n去年北京车展期间，华为正式发布智能座舱解决方案，其包含Harmony（鸿蒙）车机OS软件平台、Harmony车域生态平台以及智能硬件三大平台。 \n在华为的介绍中，Harmony车机OS定义了HMS-A（HMS for Auto，包括：语音、音效、视觉、AI等7大核心能力）、12个车机子系统和500多个HOS-C API，用以构建面向车场景的OS软件平台。 \n据华为表示，目前鸿蒙OS智能座舱解决方案已获得30多家硬件合作伙伴、50多家应用生态合作伙伴支持，今后还将继续加大与汽车及应用领域的开放和合作力度。 \n今年4月举办的上海车展上，华为也展出了智能汽车解决方案的多项技术，鸿蒙OS车机操作系统更是其中重要一环。 \n当前，鸿蒙OS车机操作系统也已经正式“上车”，北汽极狐合作阿尔法S是首款搭载华为鸿蒙OS车机操作系统的车型。 \n当前，华为还在与长安、广汽开展深度合作，今后鸿蒙OS车机操作系统也将搭载在更多车型上。 \n“蚂蚁雄兵”已然在路上，但鸿蒙系统要想突破16%市占率的生死线，还需要更先进的商业模式，以及更完善的生态体系。\n鸿蒙创造历史，但如何突破16%生死线？ \n“我们分析了过去二十年PC产业和移动产业的生态发展，发现16%的市场占有量是一个分水岭，超过16%的生态基本就成功了。”今年1月，王成录在接受媒体采访时提到了定3亿台搭载鸿蒙设备的原因。 \n市场占有量决定一切。当前，在移动终端操作系统领域，Android和苹果iOS分庭抗礼，占据绝对优势。 \n据StatCounter数据，2020年4月至2021年4月，移动端操作系统市场份额上，谷歌Android系统占比达72.2%，苹果iOS占比为26.99%，其他操作系统市场份额占比不足1%。 \n从全球操作系统市场（包括移动端和PC端）份额来看，截至2021年4月，Android市场份额为40.63%、Windows市场份额为31.94%、苹果iOS市场份额为16.26%、苹果OS X市场份额为6.83%。\n\n2009-2021年全球不同手机操作系统的市场份额，图源StatCounter \n在竞争激烈的市场里，华为能不能突破生死线？ \n就在上月，Google举行了一年一度的Google I/O开发者大会，正式介绍了最新一代安卓系统Android 12，而在其公布的合作伙伴名单中剔除了华为。 \n这意味着，Android 12不再适配华为手机。这是华为继失去芯片后，受到的又一大重创。\n今后，华为不管在芯片层面，还是在操作系统层面，均已被全面“封禁”，自力更生也成为华为唯一的道路。 \n尽管Android 12还需要一段时间才能正式上线，但小米、OPPO、vivo等多家国内手机厂商均表示将率先升级Android 12系统。 \n不过，鸿蒙系统要想真正走出来，势必要拉拢各大手机厂商，这也是华为能否突破生死线的关键。 \n当前，魅族已经宣布与鸿蒙展开合作，但仅是旗下智能家居板块接入鸿蒙系统，并不涉及手机业务。 \n“当前来看，国内手机厂商短期肯定不会用鸿蒙系统。一方面是鸿蒙系统体验如何还不清楚，有待观察；另一方面从商业角度，鸿蒙系统也没有明确的商业模式，企业总不可能做赔本的买卖。”孙燕飚向连线Insight表示。 \n从过往来看，微软、三星、阿里均前赴后继推出过自己的操作系统，但无一例外全部失败了，其原因一方面是受到安卓、苹果的影响。 \n谷歌曾经威胁计划首发阿里YunOS的手机厂商宏碁在谷歌GMS与YunOS二选一，这直接遏制其他操作系统发展的可能，另一方面其他操作系统没有找到合适的商业模式，也是一大问题。 \n“一直以来，苹果依靠分成模式，建立了一套稳固的生态链体系，而安卓此前并没有找到合适自己的商业模式，后来才通过广告建立起了稳固的商业帝国。”孙燕飚表示，“鸿蒙除了海量的用户、海量的终端，更需要搭建一套成熟的商业模式。” \n\n在今年4月华为全球分析师大会上，华为副董事长、轮值董事长徐直军也透露，在2018年底，董事会决定投资20亿美元提升软件能力，在5年周期内，软件工程能力再提升一个台阶。同时也在寻求软件方面的机会，加大投入，提升软件和服务的收入。 \n当下，或许华为也还在探索鸿蒙的商业模式，这是未来鸿蒙能否发展壮大的关键因素。 \n需要注意的是，鸿蒙不是专属手机的操作系统，王成录此前表示华为绝不会再做一个安卓或者再做一个iOS，如果再做一个一样的智能终端的操作系统，是没有价值的。 \n为此，瞄准万物互联才是鸿蒙的最终目标，而这也给了鸿蒙发展的机会。 \n“我们已经进入了后手机时代，未来的手机可能会被拆解成一块屏幕、一副眼镜，甚至一些我们无法想象的载体，这正是鸿蒙发展的最佳时机。”孙燕飚表示。 \nHarmonyOS 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