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阿骨打1972

阿骨打1972

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2023-11-06

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 二年不到！从亏损50%到盈利95%。美股菜鸟非常高兴😊

2023-04-01

👌

36氪专访丨蔚来秦力洪谈“千站计划”：要让用户说走就走，我们的账算得很清楚

2023-03-18

👌

昨夜今晨 | 瑞信重挫14%引爆恐慌！热门中概股普跌

2023-02-15

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 发力了

2023-02-14

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 小意思

2023-02-10

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 努力💪

2023-02-08

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 吃肉

2023-02-06

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 加油

2023-02-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 终于解套了

2023-01-25

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 反弹一下吧

2022-12-31

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 一夜回到解放前

2022-12-28

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 希望破灭

2022-12-08

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 亏麻了

2022-11-18

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 太难了

2022-11-12

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 好烂，大盘这么涨你还跌

2022-11-09

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$慢慢起来

2022-11-06

$腾讯音乐(TME)$观察

2022-10-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎虎起来！

2022-10-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$[微笑]

2022-10-12

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$计划补了…

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12:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"36氪专访丨蔚来秦力洪谈“千站计划”：要让用户说走就走，我们的账算得很清楚","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323063547","media":"36氪","summary":"新指标下，蔚来高速换电站的间隔缩短到100公里，密度进一步提升。秦力洪透露，蔚来用户中一二线城市的占比高达70%。但秦力洪向36氪直言，“蔚来的帐算得很清楚。”蔚来计划在今年第四季度开始实现盈利，仍是一项相当艰巨的任务。","content":"<html><body><article><p>文丨彭苏平</p><p>编辑丨李勤</p><p>去年年底，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>内部开会，几位高管被要求投票，选出最能推动今年销量的业务，换电站得票最高。</p><p>这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>的独门武器。今年年初开始，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>为首掀起4轮降价，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等大部头车企快速跟进，其他行业玩家也只能降价迎战。</p><p>一片踩踏中，蔚来通过自家的换电站坚守住了“不降价底线”。但代价不菲，蔚来原本计划今年只小幅新增400座换电站，现在这个目标已经急剧上调了2倍多，达到1000座。</p><p>蔚来总裁秦力洪近日接受了36氪专访，他对此表示，1000座并不是今年建站的绝对数量，而是一种决心，“顶着能力边界尽可能多建站。”</p><p>换电服务是蔚来的专属招牌。行业的通行做法是布局超快充，“充电5分钟，续航200公里”是理想状态下的能力，但在蔚来换电站，5分钟可以换到一块满电电池，补能体验接近燃油车。</p><p>数年的经营下，一套涵盖1300多座换电站的补能体系已初步建成，它顶着重<span>资产</span>投入的争议，帮助蔚来实现了超30万台交付，在中国高端纯电市场站稳脚跟。而市场正进入激烈的对抗期，蔚来也在加固这个护城河。</p><p>蔚来今年规划的1000座换电站中，高速站400座，城区站600座。</p><p>在高速上，蔚来换电站之前是间隔150-200公里建一个，现在秦力洪为蔚来的加电体验提出了新指标，“说走就走，以至于用户不需要注意加电这件事”。新指标下，蔚来高速换电站的间隔缩短到100公里，密度进一步提升。</p><p>除了在高速场景“补密”，对之前没有太多触及的三四线城市，蔚来也想借助换电站这块招牌去撬动，而不是牛屋或者NIO Space。</p><p>秦力洪透露，蔚来用户中一二线城市的占比高达70%。所以，600座城区站中，三四线城市会占到不小比例，“有些三四线城市的市场没有稳定的客流，其实不需要建门店，定期去搞活动就行了。”</p><p>纯电动车的补能短板一直是行业发展的最大掣肘，市场玩家没有捷径可走。今天国内电动车保有量已超过1000万辆，但仍未形成加油站那样成熟的补能生态。与蔚来同航道的另一家造车新势力，计划2024年大规模进军纯电市场，比起蔚来推迟了近十年，但依然要重金投入100亿元打造超充基建。</p><p>因此，从建立市场竞争力的视角看，蔚来已经布局了业内相对完善的补能网络，除了换电站，也建设了充电站、移动补能车等服务方式。</p><p>据36氪了解，新建1000座换电站的同时，蔚来今年还有一个新建10000根充电桩的计划。这同样是一个不小的目标，要知道，特斯拉入华7年，才完成了上万根充电桩的建设。</p><p>蔚来激进的补能基建背后，是一套运营、管理、财务等各项能力的综合试炼场。销售及综合管理费用是蔚来的传统支出大项，2022年的财报显示，这项费用已高达105.37亿元，在总营收中占比21.4%。</p><p>这也让“蔚来不计成本做服务”的评价迭起。但秦力洪向36氪直言，“蔚来的帐算得很清楚。”</p><p>在他看来，包括补能在内的一系列服务，是支撑蔚来品牌高端的重要方面。他透露，如果将免费的换电都按照市场价核算，NIO Power已经能够盈亏平衡。但蔚来的理念是，高端品牌“一定要有一些增值且免费的东西”。</p><p>另外，今年虽然在营销服务体系的投入继续增加，但效率也在提升。</p><p>据介绍，蔚来内部设立了单用户服务成本、单用户发展成本、单用户社区成本等指标，来衡量营销投入效率。</p><p><strong>换电站被计入用户服务成本，秦力洪表示，2023年单用户服务成本能够做到2018年1/4的水平，而广告、门店运营等被计入用户发展成本，单用户的这项成本也会逐年优化。</strong></p><p>营销和服务的效率优化，一方面来源于不断扩大的存量用户，另一方面也得益于蔚来在服务运营体系的更高效运作。</p><p>比如，今年重点铺设的三代换电站，据称单次服务成本便会降低很多。秦力洪表示，三代站的建设成本与二代站相当，但二代站的单日服务能力是300多次，而三代站则有400多次，“就相当于一个小炮艇换了个导弹战舰，它在海上的作战半径不一样。”</p><p>不过，从财务指标上看，单用户运营成本的优化，转化为营销费用在总收入中的占比下降，中间还需要足够体量的新增用户或销量支撑。蔚来计划在今年第四季度开始实现盈利，仍是一项相当艰巨的任务。</p><p>以下是36氪与秦力洪关于蔚来今年补能体系建设的对话内容（有删节）：</p><p>补密和下沉</p><p><strong>36氪：从之前宣布的400座到现在的1000座，除了考虑用户体验外，有行业形势的考虑吗？</strong></p><p>秦力洪：这倒是很次要的。中国那么大，你要说抢占堂口，让别人无路可走，做不到。可能局部高速公路的服务区有一些小争抢，但都不是主流。主要还是根据用户的需求。</p><p>蔚来的换电站分两种，一种是城区站，一种是城际站。</p><p>城区站有几个关键指标。一是覆盖度，就“电区房”这个概念，半径三公里，过去只看住宅，后来发现公司也挺重要，现在讲职住地的半径三公里。</p><p>城际站就是跟着路网走了，路网乘以交通量。过去我们提过一个指标，200公里间距必须要有一座，算基本开通，小于等于150公里，叫完全贯通。现在要提高这个标准，做到100公里间距。</p><p>我给大家提了个体验指标，叫说走就走。我们支持灵活换电，加上局部的补密，用户对说走就走的行程就不用操心了。</p><p><strong>36氪：新增的换电站有不少是在下沉市场，您之前提到，蔚来的用户80%在一二线城市，这个数据有变化吗？</strong></p><p>秦力洪：变化不大，现在可能70%左右。</p><p>我们曾经在三四线城市开过门店，后来效果一般。因为即便开了店，当地人对于新事物的接受还是需要过程，所以现在调整了策略。</p><p>三四线城市的换电站有两个作用。一是用它来替代门店，有一些市场，客流不稳定，其实不需要门店，定期去搞活动就行了，但是换电站一建，大家又天天都看得到。</p><p>二是很多地方，它不一定能产生大量的销量，但它又是中心城市的人出行目的地，比如上海的崇明，要看消费力量，崇明是低的，但上海的人经常会去崇明过个周末。</p><p><strong>36氪：超充今年有什么样的布局规划？</strong></p><p>秦力洪：超充主要是三类。第一是作为换电站的配套，充换一体站会是我们的主流布局；第二是布在一些不需要换电站，但又有一定需求的交通枢纽上，比如穿越河西走廊的G60高速，它的交通量还没那么大，超充作为一个阶段性的布局，有需要了再切换成换电站；第三是职住地，就是市内交通的一个节点，包括商场的一些停车位等等。</p><p>第三点大家都在看，还经常狭路相逢。所以我们呼吁，至少城区的超充桩应该开放给别的品牌，哪怕你多收钱。</p><p><strong>36氪：充电站可能换成换电站，当800V高压快充很普及，换电站有没有可能切换到超充站？</strong></p><p>秦力洪：没有必要。现在很多人在误导，说我有800V的桩、800V的车，你问过国家电网它有800V的电没有？基本上都没有。再加上如果是多桩多台车，同时充，一分流就更慢。</p><p>即便超快充进一步发展，也需要换电站。我们为什么把换电站的储备电池数不断提高？其实二代站电池数量基本足够周转了，主要还是为了储能，提升充电的效率和体验。</p><p>进攻和效率优化</p><p><strong>36氪：为什么外界总有一种感觉是蔚来不怎么算账？现在看算得还挺细的。</strong></p><p>秦力洪：之前我们对外一般说体验，大家觉得我们不太算账，其实算得挺清楚的。</p><p><strong>36氪：李斌在内部信中说，今年的预算不会明显增加，但是能源体系、服务体系还是需要投入不少资源去做的，怎么平衡？</strong></p><p>秦力洪：假设蔚来今年卖20万台车，销量接近翻倍，保有量也翻倍，服务体系投入的绝对数不变，这是不可能的。但是，我们的单用户服务成本必须下降，必须下一个目标。</p><p>蔚来算账算得比别人复杂，在我日常管理的大营销的账里面，除了正常的广告费、公关费、维修费这些标准的指标外，还有几个特别的指标。</p><p>第一个叫单用户发展成本，就是为了卖车的一切，我们要求逐年优化。但它不会有特别大的规模效应，比如说广告费，不是说投得越多就越便宜，蔚来就算在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BITA\">易车</a>也是官方价；</p><p>第二个叫单用户服务成本，就是维修、保养、取送、充换电等，大家所谓蔚来丧心病狂烧钱的这一切，它是逐年下降的。具体数字我不方便说，但是2023年能做到的水平是2018年的1/4。</p><p>道理很简单，2018年蔚来一共就1万多用户，假设今年卖20万辆，年底保有量接近50万。当前我肯定不需要50倍的人力财力，甚至还能优化不少。如果展望3~5年，今年新建的600座换电站，肯定帮蔚来多卖车，唯一的区别就是能多多少。我们内部是有一个模型做预测的，一定是看到它的边际效益增加，才做这个事的。</p><p>第三个指标叫单用户社区成本，就是APP这些，因为我们做的是用户全生命周期的生意，我们是批发+零售+运营+二手车运营，这些美好愉悦的生活方式，用户会很容易再次选择蔚来。它的效果要放到几年以后看，复购的比例有没有高于行业平均。</p><p>很多人觉得蔚来傻，其实是还没有看透，因为确实商业模式不一样。</p><p><strong>36氪：像单用户服务成本这些指标，会每年画一条线，在上下一个区间浮动吗？</strong></p><p>秦力洪：这肯定是动态的，有远景的预期，有近期的波动，也有经常的调整。因为蔚来毕竟还是一个初创公司，机制也比较灵活，我们内部是用VAU来评估工作，value不能变，action随时应该调整，因为外部环境变化太大，需要你不断迭代。</p><p>公司管理层要看全局，下面各个部门有他阶段性的任务。有些部门这个阶段就是要拼命添油加柴，像能源部门，今年就该打大仗，像开门店的部门，今年就要稍微缓一缓。今年我们还会增加100多家门店，去年是200多家，对于那个部门来说，今年增加300家他才够，但是我们稍微慢一点，把质量提高一下。</p><p>全局上，今年在营销服务上肯定保持进攻态势，没有理由去收缩高标准、高速度，但效率肯定在优化。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n36氪专访丨蔚来秦力洪谈“千站计划”：要让用户说走就走，我们的账算得很清楚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-31 12:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303311211188420ce55&s=b><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨彭苏平编辑丨李勤去年年底，蔚来内部开会，几位高管被要求投票，选出最能推动今年销量的业务，换电站得票最高。这是蔚来的独门武器。今年年初开始，以特斯拉为首掀起4轮降价，比亚迪等大部头车企快速跟进，其他行业玩家也只能降价迎战。一片踩踏中，蔚来通过自家的换电站坚守住了“不降价底线”。但代价不菲，蔚来原本计划今年只小幅新增400座换电站，现在这个目标已经急剧上调了2倍多，达到1000座。蔚来总裁秦力洪...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303311211188420ce55&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK1588":"回港中概股"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303311211188420ce55&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2323063547","content_text":"文丨彭苏平编辑丨李勤去年年底，蔚来内部开会，几位高管被要求投票，选出最能推动今年销量的业务，换电站得票最高。这是蔚来的独门武器。今年年初开始，以特斯拉为首掀起4轮降价，比亚迪等大部头车企快速跟进，其他行业玩家也只能降价迎战。一片踩踏中，蔚来通过自家的换电站坚守住了“不降价底线”。但代价不菲，蔚来原本计划今年只小幅新增400座换电站，现在这个目标已经急剧上调了2倍多，达到1000座。蔚来总裁秦力洪近日接受了36氪专访，他对此表示，1000座并不是今年建站的绝对数量，而是一种决心，“顶着能力边界尽可能多建站。”换电服务是蔚来的专属招牌。行业的通行做法是布局超快充，“充电5分钟，续航200公里”是理想状态下的能力，但在蔚来换电站，5分钟可以换到一块满电电池，补能体验接近燃油车。数年的经营下，一套涵盖1300多座换电站的补能体系已初步建成，它顶着重资产投入的争议，帮助蔚来实现了超30万台交付，在中国高端纯电市场站稳脚跟。而市场正进入激烈的对抗期，蔚来也在加固这个护城河。蔚来今年规划的1000座换电站中，高速站400座，城区站600座。在高速上，蔚来换电站之前是间隔150-200公里建一个，现在秦力洪为蔚来的加电体验提出了新指标，“说走就走，以至于用户不需要注意加电这件事”。新指标下，蔚来高速换电站的间隔缩短到100公里，密度进一步提升。除了在高速场景“补密”，对之前没有太多触及的三四线城市，蔚来也想借助换电站这块招牌去撬动，而不是牛屋或者NIO Space。秦力洪透露，蔚来用户中一二线城市的占比高达70%。所以，600座城区站中，三四线城市会占到不小比例，“有些三四线城市的市场没有稳定的客流，其实不需要建门店，定期去搞活动就行了。”纯电动车的补能短板一直是行业发展的最大掣肘，市场玩家没有捷径可走。今天国内电动车保有量已超过1000万辆，但仍未形成加油站那样成熟的补能生态。与蔚来同航道的另一家造车新势力，计划2024年大规模进军纯电市场，比起蔚来推迟了近十年，但依然要重金投入100亿元打造超充基建。因此，从建立市场竞争力的视角看，蔚来已经布局了业内相对完善的补能网络，除了换电站，也建设了充电站、移动补能车等服务方式。据36氪了解，新建1000座换电站的同时，蔚来今年还有一个新建10000根充电桩的计划。这同样是一个不小的目标，要知道，特斯拉入华7年，才完成了上万根充电桩的建设。蔚来激进的补能基建背后，是一套运营、管理、财务等各项能力的综合试炼场。销售及综合管理费用是蔚来的传统支出大项，2022年的财报显示，这项费用已高达105.37亿元，在总营收中占比21.4%。这也让“蔚来不计成本做服务”的评价迭起。但秦力洪向36氪直言，“蔚来的帐算得很清楚。”在他看来，包括补能在内的一系列服务，是支撑蔚来品牌高端的重要方面。他透露，如果将免费的换电都按照市场价核算，NIO Power已经能够盈亏平衡。但蔚来的理念是，高端品牌“一定要有一些增值且免费的东西”。另外，今年虽然在营销服务体系的投入继续增加，但效率也在提升。据介绍，蔚来内部设立了单用户服务成本、单用户发展成本、单用户社区成本等指标，来衡量营销投入效率。换电站被计入用户服务成本，秦力洪表示，2023年单用户服务成本能够做到2018年1/4的水平，而广告、门店运营等被计入用户发展成本，单用户的这项成本也会逐年优化。营销和服务的效率优化，一方面来源于不断扩大的存量用户，另一方面也得益于蔚来在服务运营体系的更高效运作。比如，今年重点铺设的三代换电站，据称单次服务成本便会降低很多。秦力洪表示，三代站的建设成本与二代站相当，但二代站的单日服务能力是300多次，而三代站则有400多次，“就相当于一个小炮艇换了个导弹战舰，它在海上的作战半径不一样。”不过，从财务指标上看，单用户运营成本的优化，转化为营销费用在总收入中的占比下降，中间还需要足够体量的新增用户或销量支撑。蔚来计划在今年第四季度开始实现盈利，仍是一项相当艰巨的任务。以下是36氪与秦力洪关于蔚来今年补能体系建设的对话内容（有删节）：补密和下沉36氪：从之前宣布的400座到现在的1000座，除了考虑用户体验外，有行业形势的考虑吗？秦力洪：这倒是很次要的。中国那么大，你要说抢占堂口，让别人无路可走，做不到。可能局部高速公路的服务区有一些小争抢，但都不是主流。主要还是根据用户的需求。蔚来的换电站分两种，一种是城区站，一种是城际站。城区站有几个关键指标。一是覆盖度，就“电区房”这个概念，半径三公里，过去只看住宅，后来发现公司也挺重要，现在讲职住地的半径三公里。城际站就是跟着路网走了，路网乘以交通量。过去我们提过一个指标，200公里间距必须要有一座，算基本开通，小于等于150公里，叫完全贯通。现在要提高这个标准，做到100公里间距。我给大家提了个体验指标，叫说走就走。我们支持灵活换电，加上局部的补密，用户对说走就走的行程就不用操心了。36氪：新增的换电站有不少是在下沉市场，您之前提到，蔚来的用户80%在一二线城市，这个数据有变化吗？秦力洪：变化不大，现在可能70%左右。我们曾经在三四线城市开过门店，后来效果一般。因为即便开了店，当地人对于新事物的接受还是需要过程，所以现在调整了策略。三四线城市的换电站有两个作用。一是用它来替代门店，有一些市场，客流不稳定，其实不需要门店，定期去搞活动就行了，但是换电站一建，大家又天天都看得到。二是很多地方，它不一定能产生大量的销量，但它又是中心城市的人出行目的地，比如上海的崇明，要看消费力量，崇明是低的，但上海的人经常会去崇明过个周末。36氪：超充今年有什么样的布局规划？秦力洪：超充主要是三类。第一是作为换电站的配套，充换一体站会是我们的主流布局；第二是布在一些不需要换电站，但又有一定需求的交通枢纽上，比如穿越河西走廊的G60高速，它的交通量还没那么大，超充作为一个阶段性的布局，有需要了再切换成换电站；第三是职住地，就是市内交通的一个节点，包括商场的一些停车位等等。第三点大家都在看，还经常狭路相逢。所以我们呼吁，至少城区的超充桩应该开放给别的品牌，哪怕你多收钱。36氪：充电站可能换成换电站，当800V高压快充很普及，换电站有没有可能切换到超充站？秦力洪：没有必要。现在很多人在误导，说我有800V的桩、800V的车，你问过国家电网它有800V的电没有？基本上都没有。再加上如果是多桩多台车，同时充，一分流就更慢。即便超快充进一步发展，也需要换电站。我们为什么把换电站的储备电池数不断提高？其实二代站电池数量基本足够周转了，主要还是为了储能，提升充电的效率和体验。进攻和效率优化36氪：为什么外界总有一种感觉是蔚来不怎么算账？现在看算得还挺细的。秦力洪：之前我们对外一般说体验，大家觉得我们不太算账，其实算得挺清楚的。36氪：李斌在内部信中说，今年的预算不会明显增加，但是能源体系、服务体系还是需要投入不少资源去做的，怎么平衡？秦力洪：假设蔚来今年卖20万台车，销量接近翻倍，保有量也翻倍，服务体系投入的绝对数不变，这是不可能的。但是，我们的单用户服务成本必须下降，必须下一个目标。蔚来算账算得比别人复杂，在我日常管理的大营销的账里面，除了正常的广告费、公关费、维修费这些标准的指标外，还有几个特别的指标。第一个叫单用户发展成本，就是为了卖车的一切，我们要求逐年优化。但它不会有特别大的规模效应，比如说广告费，不是说投得越多就越便宜，蔚来就算在易车也是官方价；第二个叫单用户服务成本，就是维修、保养、取送、充换电等，大家所谓蔚来丧心病狂烧钱的这一切，它是逐年下降的。具体数字我不方便说，但是2023年能做到的水平是2018年的1/4。道理很简单，2018年蔚来一共就1万多用户，假设今年卖20万辆，年底保有量接近50万。当前我肯定不需要50倍的人力财力，甚至还能优化不少。如果展望3~5年，今年新建的600座换电站，肯定帮蔚来多卖车，唯一的区别就是能多多少。我们内部是有一个模型做预测的，一定是看到它的边际效益增加，才做这个事的。第三个指标叫单用户社区成本，就是APP这些，因为我们做的是用户全生命周期的生意，我们是批发+零售+运营+二手车运营，这些美好愉悦的生活方式，用户会很容易再次选择蔚来。它的效果要放到几年以后看，复购的比例有没有高于行业平均。很多人觉得蔚来傻，其实是还没有看透，因为确实商业模式不一样。36氪：像单用户服务成本这些指标，会每年画一条线，在上下一个区间浮动吗？秦力洪：这肯定是动态的，有远景的预期，有近期的波动，也有经常的调整。因为蔚来毕竟还是一个初创公司，机制也比较灵活，我们内部是用VAU来评估工作，value不能变，action随时应该调整，因为外部环境变化太大，需要你不断迭代。公司管理层要看全局，下面各个部门有他阶段性的任务。有些部门这个阶段就是要拼命添油加柴，像能源部门，今年就该打大仗，像开门店的部门，今年就要稍微缓一缓。今年我们还会增加100多家门店，去年是200多家，对于那个部门来说，今年增加300家他才够，但是我们稍微慢一点，把质量提高一下。全局上，今年在营销服务上肯定保持进攻态势，没有理由去收缩高标准、高速度，但效率肯定在优化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650630026,"gmtCreate":1679099801365,"gmtModify":1679099802775,"author":{"id":"3568283361627384","authorId":"3568283361627384","name":"阿骨打1972","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62715de3737ded4667d37c5c199b28c5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568283361627384","authorIdStr":"3568283361627384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650630026","repostId":"1196512994","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196512994","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678924471,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196512994?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-16 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨 | 瑞信重挫14%引爆恐慌！热门中概股普跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196512994","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①瑞信重挫14%引爆恐慌，道指收跌近1%，欧股集体大跌，国际油价再重挫；②美联储不加息的理由又增加了：PPI和零售销售均超预期回落；③瑞士央行：如有必要 将向瑞信提供流动性支持。海外行情1、美股","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①瑞信重挫14%引爆恐慌，道指收跌近1%，欧股集体大跌，国际油价再重挫；②美联储不加息的理由又增加了：PPI和零售销售均超预期回落；③瑞士央行：如有必要 将向瑞信提供流动性支持。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e8ec0c12dfd47173848f1dfbb75468\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>海外行情</p><p>1、美股收盘涨跌不一道指跌近1%银行股再遭重创<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>跌逾14%</p><p>美股周三收盘涨跌不一。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>自曝内部控制发现“重大缺陷”，且其大股东拒绝进一步注资，加剧了最近金融行业面临的压力。美国2月PPI与零售销售数据均显示通胀压力缓解，强化了美联储不再激进加息的预期。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数微涨0.05%，道琼斯指数跌0.87%，标普500指数跌0.69%。</p><p>受瑞信和欧洲银行板块拖累，美国大型银行股集体下行，瑞士信贷跌近14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>跌5.44%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>跌3.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跌4.72%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>跌5.09%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>跌3.09%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>跌0.94%。</p><p>两大地区银行股再遭重创，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>跌21.37%，西<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>合众银行跌12.87%，不过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">阿莱恩斯西部银行</a>涨8.30%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7327813b7d47628f2e323bceb8f354a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>大型科技股集体收涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨0.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>涨1.39%，Meta涨1.92%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>涨2.28%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨1.78%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌3.00%。有色金属、油气板块跌幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CENX\">世纪铝业</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">美国钢铁</a>跌超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCCO\">南方铜业</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>跌超6%。</p><p>2、中概股多数下行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌近3%</p><p>热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.39%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌2.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌2.72%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌1.64%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌1.91%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌2.63%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌6.44%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌1.73%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌3.76%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌2.02%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨2.27%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌2.91%。</p><p>3、欧股收盘大跌 主要指数均跌逾3%</p><p>欧股主要指数周三收盘大跌，德国DAX30指数跌3.27%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数跌3.83%，法国CAC40指数跌3.58%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌3.46%。欧洲斯托克银行指数收跌6.9%，创一年来最大跌幅。瑞信收跌约24%创史上最大单日跌幅，拖累欧洲银行股。</p><p>4、美油盘中跌近8%失守70美元、布油跌7.5% 刷新2021年12月以来的逾一年最低</p><p>欧美银行业危机引燃不安情绪，同属风险资产的油价连续多日重挫。WTI 4月期货收跌3.72美元，跌幅5.21%，报67.61美元/桶。布伦特5月期货收跌3.76美元，跌幅4.85%，报73.69美元/桶。欧洲天然气尾盘跌超2%，下逼2021年8月以来最低。美国NYMEX 4月天然气期货跌超5%。</p><p>美油WTI最深跌5.63美元或跌7.9%，日低失守66美元，创六个月最大盘中跌幅；国际布伦特最深跌5.78美元或跌7.5%，日低失守72美元，均连跌三日至2021年12月以来的逾一年最低。油价本周累跌超10%，势将在五周内连续第四周下跌。</p><p>5、纽约黄金期货周三收高1.1%</p><p>纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的4月黄金期价15日比前一交易日上涨20.4美元，收于每盎司1931.3美元，涨幅为1.07%。避险情绪高涨令黄金期货价格得到提振。</p><p>宏观新闻</p><p>1、美联储不加息的理由又增加了：PPI和零售销售均超预期回落</p><p>美国2月生产者价格指数(PPI)环比下滑，这是近期通胀压力缓解的一个迹象。此外，零售销售数据也继续降温，这些都在强化美联储不加息的预期。</p><p>美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，美国2月PPI环比下降0.1%，预估为0.3%，前值为0.7%；美国2月PPI同比增长4.6%，预估为5.4%，前值为5.7%。</p><p>2、吸取SVB危机教训 欧盟将加快制定针对破产银行的规则</p><p>美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>（SVB）危机爆发后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">大西洋</a>彼岸的欧盟决定加快制定针对破产银行的规则，官员们正在推动在今年春季提交相关提案。</p><p>欧元集团主席帕斯卡尔·多诺霍在接受媒体采访时称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>的倒闭凸显了欧洲继续组建银行业联盟的重要性。</p><p>多诺霍表示：“我们谁也无法确定下一个风险可能来自哪里。”他表示，应对这种风险的最佳方案是加快和加强欧盟处理破产银行规则的工作。</p><p>3、中小银行面临严重冲击 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>下调美国GDP增速预期</p><p>美东时间周三，投行高盛下调了美国2023年的经济增速预期，理由是在美国乃至更广泛的金融体系动荡之际，中小银行不得不减少贷款，保留更多的储备资金以应付储户的提款需求。</p><p>高盛将2023年美国经济增速预期下调了0.3个百分点至1.2%。高盛经济学家David Mericle在一份报告中写道，银行收紧贷款标准可能会限制未来的商业投资，并将严重影响消费支出，从而对整体需求状况带来拖累，从而降低经济增速。</p><p>4、欧洲银行股大跌引发疯狂降息畅想：美联储年内将降息至4%以下</p><p>随着瑞士第二大银行瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）周三股价重挫引发欧美市场震荡，市场定价反应的美联储加息预期，已经变成“今年会降息多少”。</p><p>依据联邦基金期货价格预测升降息几率的Fed Watch工具显示，美联储到5月可能会再加25个基点，之后便将进入降息通道。到今年12月的年内最后一次FOMC会议结束时，联邦基金利率在3.25%-3.50%区间的概率为29.7%，在3.50%-3.75%区间的概率为29.8%，分别较目前水平降息125个基点和100个基点。</p><p>俄乌局势</p><p>1、俄国防部长绍伊古与美国防部长奥斯汀通电话</p><p>俄罗斯国防部当地时间15日表示，俄国防部长绍伊古当天应邀与美国国防部长奥斯汀通电话。双方讨论内容包括美国MQ-9无人机在黑海坠毁一事。</p><p>2、俄安全会议秘书：俄方将尝试找到坠落在黑海的美国无人机残骸</p><p>俄罗斯联邦安全会议秘书帕特鲁舍夫表示，俄方将尝试找到坠落在黑海的美国无人机残骸。俄罗斯对外情报局局长纳雷什金表示，俄方拥有打捞坠毁美国无人机的技术能力。美国白宫国家安全委员会战略沟通协调员约翰·柯比当地时间3月15日表示，14日在黑海坠毁的美国无人侦察机可能永远无法寻回。柯比表示，官员们正在确定是否有可能寻回并恢复该侦察机，但是他同时强调侦察机坠入了“非常深的水中”，有可能无法寻回。</p><p>3、欧盟正在敲定向基辅供应20亿欧元武器的计划</p><p>据《政治报》报道，欧盟正在敲定一项20亿欧元的交易，打算联手向乌克兰提供武器并补充欧洲武器库的储备。此前有报道称，在斯德哥尔摩举行的欧盟防长非正式会议提出了三点计划，即紧急向乌克兰提供现有弹药、欧盟国家联合采购弹药和扩大欧盟弹药生产能力。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、瑞士央行：如有必要 将向瑞信提供流动性支持</p><p>当地时间周三（3月15日），瑞士央行和瑞士金融市场监督管理局（FINMA）发布联合声明称，如有必要，央行将向瑞士信贷提供流动性支持。</p><p>瑞士央行和FINMA表示，瑞信符合适用于系统重要性银行的更高资本和流动性要求，如有必要，瑞士央行将向其提供流动性支持。</p><p>瑞士监督管理机构发表声明后，瑞信美股股价跌幅明显收窄，周三收跌约14%，当天开盘一度大跌近30%。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>业巨头数月来一直在减少对瑞信的风险敞口</p><p>据媒体援引消息人士报道，美国最大几家银行数月来一直在降低对瑞信的直接风险敞口。知情人士透露，监督管理机构本周对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>， 美国银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>集团在瑞信的敞口做了更多问询。这些美国的银行在与瑞信合作的同时，也在检查和管理有关该行的对手方风险。</p><p>3、美国政府可能只希望把硅谷银行出售给另一家银行</p><p>据媒体报道，美国政府可能只希望把硅谷银行出售给另一家银行，这可能会排除正在考虑竞购的私募股权公司和风投，后者正考虑联合竞购该行。</p><p>此前有消息称，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）等监督管理机构已委托投行Piper Sandler Companies重启对破产的硅谷银行的拍卖。其中一位消息人士说，FDIC将尝试整体出售硅谷银行，但也会探索零散的交易。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨 | 瑞信重挫14%引爆恐慌！热门中概股普跌</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨 | 瑞信重挫14%引爆恐慌！热门中概股普跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-16 07:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①瑞信重挫14%引爆恐慌，道指收跌近1%，欧股集体大跌，国际油价再重挫；②美联储不加息的理由又增加了：PPI和零售销售均超预期回落；③瑞士央行：如有必要 将向瑞信提供流动性支持。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e8ec0c12dfd47173848f1dfbb75468\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>海外行情</p><p>1、美股收盘涨跌不一道指跌近1%银行股再遭重创<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>跌逾14%</p><p>美股周三收盘涨跌不一。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>自曝内部控制发现“重大缺陷”，且其大股东拒绝进一步注资，加剧了最近金融行业面临的压力。美国2月PPI与零售销售数据均显示通胀压力缓解，强化了美联储不再激进加息的预期。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数微涨0.05%，道琼斯指数跌0.87%，标普500指数跌0.69%。</p><p>受瑞信和欧洲银行板块拖累，美国大型银行股集体下行，瑞士信贷跌近14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>跌5.44%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>跌3.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跌4.72%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>跌5.09%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>跌3.09%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>跌0.94%。</p><p>两大地区银行股再遭重创，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>跌21.37%，西<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>合众银行跌12.87%，不过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">阿莱恩斯西部银行</a>涨8.30%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7327813b7d47628f2e323bceb8f354a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>大型科技股集体收涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨0.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>涨1.39%，Meta涨1.92%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>涨2.28%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨1.78%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌3.00%。有色金属、油气板块跌幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CENX\">世纪铝业</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">美国钢铁</a>跌超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCCO\">南方铜业</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>跌超6%。</p><p>2、中概股多数下行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌近3%</p><p>热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.39%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌2.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌2.72%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌1.64%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌1.91%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌2.63%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌6.44%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌1.73%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌3.76%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌2.02%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨2.27%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌2.91%。</p><p>3、欧股收盘大跌 主要指数均跌逾3%</p><p>欧股主要指数周三收盘大跌，德国DAX30指数跌3.27%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数跌3.83%，法国CAC40指数跌3.58%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌3.46%。欧洲斯托克银行指数收跌6.9%，创一年来最大跌幅。瑞信收跌约24%创史上最大单日跌幅，拖累欧洲银行股。</p><p>4、美油盘中跌近8%失守70美元、布油跌7.5% 刷新2021年12月以来的逾一年最低</p><p>欧美银行业危机引燃不安情绪，同属风险资产的油价连续多日重挫。WTI 4月期货收跌3.72美元，跌幅5.21%，报67.61美元/桶。布伦特5月期货收跌3.76美元，跌幅4.85%，报73.69美元/桶。欧洲天然气尾盘跌超2%，下逼2021年8月以来最低。美国NYMEX 4月天然气期货跌超5%。</p><p>美油WTI最深跌5.63美元或跌7.9%，日低失守66美元，创六个月最大盘中跌幅；国际布伦特最深跌5.78美元或跌7.5%，日低失守72美元，均连跌三日至2021年12月以来的逾一年最低。油价本周累跌超10%，势将在五周内连续第四周下跌。</p><p>5、纽约黄金期货周三收高1.1%</p><p>纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的4月黄金期价15日比前一交易日上涨20.4美元，收于每盎司1931.3美元，涨幅为1.07%。避险情绪高涨令黄金期货价格得到提振。</p><p>宏观新闻</p><p>1、美联储不加息的理由又增加了：PPI和零售销售均超预期回落</p><p>美国2月生产者价格指数(PPI)环比下滑，这是近期通胀压力缓解的一个迹象。此外，零售销售数据也继续降温，这些都在强化美联储不加息的预期。</p><p>美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，美国2月PPI环比下降0.1%，预估为0.3%，前值为0.7%；美国2月PPI同比增长4.6%，预估为5.4%，前值为5.7%。</p><p>2、吸取SVB危机教训 欧盟将加快制定针对破产银行的规则</p><p>美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>（SVB）危机爆发后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">大西洋</a>彼岸的欧盟决定加快制定针对破产银行的规则，官员们正在推动在今年春季提交相关提案。</p><p>欧元集团主席帕斯卡尔·多诺霍在接受媒体采访时称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>的倒闭凸显了欧洲继续组建银行业联盟的重要性。</p><p>多诺霍表示：“我们谁也无法确定下一个风险可能来自哪里。”他表示，应对这种风险的最佳方案是加快和加强欧盟处理破产银行规则的工作。</p><p>3、中小银行面临严重冲击 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>下调美国GDP增速预期</p><p>美东时间周三，投行高盛下调了美国2023年的经济增速预期，理由是在美国乃至更广泛的金融体系动荡之际，中小银行不得不减少贷款，保留更多的储备资金以应付储户的提款需求。</p><p>高盛将2023年美国经济增速预期下调了0.3个百分点至1.2%。高盛经济学家David Mericle在一份报告中写道，银行收紧贷款标准可能会限制未来的商业投资，并将严重影响消费支出，从而对整体需求状况带来拖累，从而降低经济增速。</p><p>4、欧洲银行股大跌引发疯狂降息畅想：美联储年内将降息至4%以下</p><p>随着瑞士第二大银行瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）周三股价重挫引发欧美市场震荡，市场定价反应的美联储加息预期，已经变成“今年会降息多少”。</p><p>依据联邦基金期货价格预测升降息几率的Fed Watch工具显示，美联储到5月可能会再加25个基点，之后便将进入降息通道。到今年12月的年内最后一次FOMC会议结束时，联邦基金利率在3.25%-3.50%区间的概率为29.7%，在3.50%-3.75%区间的概率为29.8%，分别较目前水平降息125个基点和100个基点。</p><p>俄乌局势</p><p>1、俄国防部长绍伊古与美国防部长奥斯汀通电话</p><p>俄罗斯国防部当地时间15日表示，俄国防部长绍伊古当天应邀与美国国防部长奥斯汀通电话。双方讨论内容包括美国MQ-9无人机在黑海坠毁一事。</p><p>2、俄安全会议秘书：俄方将尝试找到坠落在黑海的美国无人机残骸</p><p>俄罗斯联邦安全会议秘书帕特鲁舍夫表示，俄方将尝试找到坠落在黑海的美国无人机残骸。俄罗斯对外情报局局长纳雷什金表示，俄方拥有打捞坠毁美国无人机的技术能力。美国白宫国家安全委员会战略沟通协调员约翰·柯比当地时间3月15日表示，14日在黑海坠毁的美国无人侦察机可能永远无法寻回。柯比表示，官员们正在确定是否有可能寻回并恢复该侦察机，但是他同时强调侦察机坠入了“非常深的水中”，有可能无法寻回。</p><p>3、欧盟正在敲定向基辅供应20亿欧元武器的计划</p><p>据《政治报》报道，欧盟正在敲定一项20亿欧元的交易，打算联手向乌克兰提供武器并补充欧洲武器库的储备。此前有报道称，在斯德哥尔摩举行的欧盟防长非正式会议提出了三点计划，即紧急向乌克兰提供现有弹药、欧盟国家联合采购弹药和扩大欧盟弹药生产能力。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、瑞士央行：如有必要 将向瑞信提供流动性支持</p><p>当地时间周三（3月15日），瑞士央行和瑞士金融市场监督管理局（FINMA）发布联合声明称，如有必要，央行将向瑞士信贷提供流动性支持。</p><p>瑞士央行和FINMA表示，瑞信符合适用于系统重要性银行的更高资本和流动性要求，如有必要，瑞士央行将向其提供流动性支持。</p><p>瑞士监督管理机构发表声明后，瑞信美股股价跌幅明显收窄，周三收跌约14%，当天开盘一度大跌近30%。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>业巨头数月来一直在减少对瑞信的风险敞口</p><p>据媒体援引消息人士报道，美国最大几家银行数月来一直在降低对瑞信的直接风险敞口。知情人士透露，监督管理机构本周对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>， 美国银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>集团在瑞信的敞口做了更多问询。这些美国的银行在与瑞信合作的同时，也在检查和管理有关该行的对手方风险。</p><p>3、美国政府可能只希望把硅谷银行出售给另一家银行</p><p>据媒体报道，美国政府可能只希望把硅谷银行出售给另一家银行，这可能会排除正在考虑竞购的私募股权公司和风投，后者正考虑联合竞购该行。</p><p>此前有消息称，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）等监督管理机构已委托投行Piper Sandler Companies重启对破产的硅谷银行的拍卖。其中一位消息人士说，FDIC将尝试整体出售硅谷银行，但也会探索零散的交易。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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主要指数均跌逾3%欧股主要指数周三收盘大跌，德国DAX30指数跌3.27%，英国富时100指数跌3.83%，法国CAC40指数跌3.58%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌3.46%。欧洲斯托克银行指数收跌6.9%，创一年来最大跌幅。瑞信收跌约24%创史上最大单日跌幅，拖累欧洲银行股。4、美油盘中跌近8%失守70美元、布油跌7.5% 刷新2021年12月以来的逾一年最低欧美银行业危机引燃不安情绪，同属风险资产的油价连续多日重挫。WTI 4月期货收跌3.72美元，跌幅5.21%，报67.61美元/桶。布伦特5月期货收跌3.76美元，跌幅4.85%，报73.69美元/桶。欧洲天然气尾盘跌超2%，下逼2021年8月以来最低。美国NYMEX 4月天然气期货跌超5%。美油WTI最深跌5.63美元或跌7.9%，日低失守66美元，创六个月最大盘中跌幅；国际布伦特最深跌5.78美元或跌7.5%，日低失守72美元，均连跌三日至2021年12月以来的逾一年最低。油价本周累跌超10%，势将在五周内连续第四周下跌。5、纽约黄金期货周三收高1.1%纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的4月黄金期价15日比前一交易日上涨20.4美元，收于每盎司1931.3美元，涨幅为1.07%。避险情绪高涨令黄金期货价格得到提振。宏观新闻1、美联储不加息的理由又增加了：PPI和零售销售均超预期回落美国2月生产者价格指数(PPI)环比下滑，这是近期通胀压力缓解的一个迹象。此外，零售销售数据也继续降温，这些都在强化美联储不加息的预期。美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，美国2月PPI环比下降0.1%，预估为0.3%，前值为0.7%；美国2月PPI同比增长4.6%，预估为5.4%，前值为5.7%。2、吸取SVB危机教训 欧盟将加快制定针对破产银行的规则美国硅谷银行（SVB）危机爆发后，大西洋彼岸的欧盟决定加快制定针对破产银行的规则，官员们正在推动在今年春季提交相关提案。欧元集团主席帕斯卡尔·多诺霍在接受媒体采访时称，硅谷银行的倒闭凸显了欧洲继续组建银行业联盟的重要性。多诺霍表示：“我们谁也无法确定下一个风险可能来自哪里。”他表示，应对这种风险的最佳方案是加快和加强欧盟处理破产银行规则的工作。3、中小银行面临严重冲击 高盛下调美国GDP增速预期美东时间周三，投行高盛下调了美国2023年的经济增速预期，理由是在美国乃至更广泛的金融体系动荡之际，中小银行不得不减少贷款，保留更多的储备资金以应付储户的提款需求。高盛将2023年美国经济增速预期下调了0.3个百分点至1.2%。高盛经济学家David Mericle在一份报告中写道，银行收紧贷款标准可能会限制未来的商业投资，并将严重影响消费支出，从而对整体需求状况带来拖累，从而降低经济增速。4、欧洲银行股大跌引发疯狂降息畅想：美联储年内将降息至4%以下随着瑞士第二大银行瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）周三股价重挫引发欧美市场震荡，市场定价反应的美联储加息预期，已经变成“今年会降息多少”。依据联邦基金期货价格预测升降息几率的Fed Watch工具显示，美联储到5月可能会再加25个基点，之后便将进入降息通道。到今年12月的年内最后一次FOMC会议结束时，联邦基金利率在3.25%-3.50%区间的概率为29.7%，在3.50%-3.75%区间的概率为29.8%，分别较目前水平降息125个基点和100个基点。俄乌局势1、俄国防部长绍伊古与美国防部长奥斯汀通电话俄罗斯国防部当地时间15日表示，俄国防部长绍伊古当天应邀与美国国防部长奥斯汀通电话。双方讨论内容包括美国MQ-9无人机在黑海坠毁一事。2、俄安全会议秘书：俄方将尝试找到坠落在黑海的美国无人机残骸俄罗斯联邦安全会议秘书帕特鲁舍夫表示，俄方将尝试找到坠落在黑海的美国无人机残骸。俄罗斯对外情报局局长纳雷什金表示，俄方拥有打捞坠毁美国无人机的技术能力。美国白宫国家安全委员会战略沟通协调员约翰·柯比当地时间3月15日表示，14日在黑海坠毁的美国无人侦察机可能永远无法寻回。柯比表示，官员们正在确定是否有可能寻回并恢复该侦察机，但是他同时强调侦察机坠入了“非常深的水中”，有可能无法寻回。3、欧盟正在敲定向基辅供应20亿欧元武器的计划据《政治报》报道，欧盟正在敲定一项20亿欧元的交易，打算联手向乌克兰提供武器并补充欧洲武器库的储备。此前有报道称，在斯德哥尔摩举行的欧盟防长非正式会议提出了三点计划，即紧急向乌克兰提供现有弹药、欧盟国家联合采购弹药和扩大欧盟弹药生产能力。公司新闻1、瑞士央行：如有必要 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