小白杨752的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小白杨752

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IP属地：广西

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2021-01-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$今天看你的了，巴巴

2021-01-11

$小米集团-W(01810)$这个价格，可以进吗

2021-01-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$不敢买，总觉得股价太高了，结果一山还比一山高

2021-01-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$太疯狂了，感觉已经预支了未来10年的涨幅

2021-01-04

$中芯国际(00981)$芯片是需要砸钱才能做的，全世界做芯片制造能做到量产14纳米的屈指可数，中国就只有你一家，再加上国家的支持，市场需求也越来越大，所以看好你，希望你的老板们别自己起内讧，专心研发，专研技术，不断攻克技术难关，提高产量，满足日益增高的市场，做强做大我们的中国芯。

2020-12-31

$中芯国际(00981)$开心，回本了

2020-12-30

$中芯国际(00981)$今天终于争气了一回，明天继续努力，加油

2020-12-29

$中芯国际(00981)$加油，相信你可以的

2020-12-29

$中芯国际(00981)$想说爱你不容易

2020-12-27

$中芯国际(00981)$年底希望有个好的结果

2020-12-25

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$加油，相信巴巴

2020-12-25

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$今晚买了一点，持仓一个月，不知道能不能赚点年货钱

2020-12-16

感觉我卖早了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-15

$中芯国际(00981)$也许等等你就会来

2020-12-13

$中芯国际(00981)$明天加油加油加油！

2020-12-12

学习

@Speculator 1:查理.芒格

2020-12-11

中芯国际，冲啊

2020-12-10

投资像钓鱼，要耐心等待

2020-12-09

又来割韭菜

彭博：小鹏汽车计划将增发规模提高至4800万ADS

2020-11-23

买了中芯国际就开始跌了，买啥跌啥

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"彭博：小鹏汽车计划将增发规模提高至4800万ADS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160121842","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月9日讯，小鹏$(XPEV)$据悉计划将ADS增发规模从4000万股提高至4800万股。（彭博）","content":"<p>12月9日讯，小鹏<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>据悉计划将ADS增发规模从4000万股提高至4800万股。（彭博）</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>彭博：小鹏汽车计划将增发规模提高至4800万ADS</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>今天看你的了，巴巴","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>今天看你的了，巴巴","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$今天看你的了，巴巴","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159ce60f9240047657a1df621dc6ac34","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335115143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333775836,"gmtCreate":1609380632525,"gmtModify":1703739092556,"author":{"id":"3566875787069686","authorId":"3566875787069686","name":"小白杨752","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>开心，回本了","listText":"<a 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10:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"行走的印钞机：白酒何时才会结束涨势？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141778748","media":"锦缎","summary":"《晋书·阮籍传》记载：“尝登广武，观楚汉战处，叹曰：“时无英雄，使竖子成名。”\n最后这9个字，恰好解答了当前A股投资者的一个普遍性迷茫：白酒为何一直涨？\n下图是2010年以来，白酒与A股三个主要指数的","content":"<p>《晋书·阮籍传》记载：“尝登广武，观楚汉战处，叹曰：“时无英雄，使竖子成名。”</p>\n<p>最后这9个字，恰好解答了当前A股投资者的一个普遍性迷茫：白酒为何一直涨？</p>\n<p>下图是2010年以来，白酒与A股三个主要指数的走势对比图：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f979de1393fb22b0f8dd550fea3d0e07\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"437\"></p>\n<p>2010年以来，沪深300、中证1000和创业板指，全都没有超过2015年牛市的高点。只有白酒，很快就从熊市氛围中恢复过来，并在最近的这几年里，不断的勇创新高。</p>\n<p>于是，每当市场有风吹草动，各路段子手纷纷出动，空气中弥漫着柠檬的味道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “中国股市只有两种科技，酱香型科技和浓香型科技”。“有机构投委会看完泡泡玛特的火爆后，开始认真考虑要不要提拔几个90后的基金经理，不过压力最大的是，他们的业绩明显跑不赢做白酒的70后，提拔理由不充分。”“茅台到底是可选消费还是必需消费？回答是，卖1499元的茅台是必需，卖3000块的是可选。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>与其在那等着白酒股跌下来，我们不如来思考一下，白酒整体的投资逻辑。为什么白酒会一直涨，一直涨到现在成为市场的信仰。</p>\n<p>2019年7月12日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06178\">光大证券</a>出了一篇研究报告《一杯敬传承，一杯敬繁华——白酒行业深度报告之框架篇》，给出了一个非常复杂的研究框架（见下图），从供需、量价，还有宏观、中观、微观三个方面分析白酒行业。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641a83a6394899f18984c5a9869a2156\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"635\"></p>\n<p>不能说这个研究没用，而只能说，一个体系，一个框架，变量越多，准确性越低，原因来自于蝴蝶效应的存在。</p>\n<p>1963年，美国科学家洛伦兹在用计算机进行地球大气的仿真运算的时候，为了观察结果，他尝试对中间的一个参数进行调整，将一个中间值0.506取出，提高精度到0.506127以后又放回，发现两个计算结果偏离了十万八千里，前后两条曲线的相似性完全消失。</p>\n<p>根据这个实验结果，洛伦茨提出了“蝴蝶效应”概念，也就是一个微小的初始条件的变化，可能会导致一连串的连锁反应，从而使系统发生极大的变化，让结果变得完全不可预测。</p>\n<p>回到光大的研究框架，其中的两个变量，光<b>居民收入水平和企业盈利能力</b>中的一个，就能让一个宏观经济研究员的头发掉光。发改委下属的中国宏观经济研究院，光研究员就有89位，每天的工作不过就是按着宏观经济这一个方向翻来覆去的研究。</p>\n<p>这个模型很全，但假设太多了，可以说结论完全取决于假设。我们客观的说，这些前提假设，还有这些中间变量，基本不可能做对，结果到底是什么样子纯靠蒙。</p>\n<p>炒个股而已，我们需要一个更简单、更实操的模型。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300788\">中信出版</a>社出过一个费希尔投资系列，其中有一本《必需消费品投资》，里面对必需消费品的股性有两张非常好的图。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94b1b1faf66df4f1a944b25c321b6ad\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"275\"></p>\n<p>第一张是股票自身的表现与个人消费支出（PCE）之间的关系图（见上图），可以发现，双方的走势基本上是同向的。这意味着个人消费支出越高，必需消费品企业的盈利越高，股票的表现也越好。</p>\n<p>但也不是总是如此，在上世纪90年代末，个人消费支出表现很好，但必需消费品股票表现却很差，因为那个阶段的牛市让资金转向了弹性较大的科技股。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c33127036c8eec7056cfa0dda17285\" tg-width=\"486\" tg-height=\"266\"></p>\n<p>第二张图则是必需消费品股票的相对表现与个人消费支出之间的关系图（见上图），双方的走势基本上是相反的。这意味着，当个人消费支出快速增加，经济繁荣的时候必需消费品的股票表现反而是落后的。</p>\n<p>因为经济繁荣，基金经理们更倾向于减少必选消费，增加弹性较大的科技股的投资。而当经济衰退，个人消费支出萎靡的时候，必需消费品的股票表现反而是好的，因为基金经理倾向于在组合中增加必需消费品股票进行防御。</p>\n<p>参照上面两张图，我们也有一个简单的白酒模型，大家只需要自己判断两个变量就好了。</p>\n<p>第一个变量，是宏观的大经济和流动性状况，这是最重要的变量。</p>\n<p><b>当宏观经济比较好，流动性非常宽松的时候，市场往往倾向于配置想象空间最大的行业。</b>在2007年的那波牛市中，是煤飞色舞，周期股一统天下，舍我其谁；到了2015年，则是各种互联网+。</p>\n<p>总之经济好转，流动性宽松，必需消费品就会被弃之如草芥，有飞机谁会骑自行车呢？</p>\n<p>第二个变量，是白酒的经营业绩。</p>\n<p><b>理论上来说，白酒的业绩越好，股价表现越好，但这个变量的重要性远不如第一个。</b></p>\n<p>你可以深挖白酒的经营业绩，预测茅台的一批价，然后计算各种白酒品牌的提价空间，但千万不要入戏太深。白酒业绩好，股票可能上涨，但并不必然。白酒业绩差，可能下跌，但也可能上涨，千万不要刻舟求剑。</p>\n<p>在这个框架下，我们就可以很好的解释一些问题：</p>\n<p><b>1. 白酒为什么最近一直涨？</b></p>\n<p>因为自2019年以来，经济总体上一直不太好，市场风险偏好不高，2020年还有疫情，市场倾向于防御。</p>\n<p><b>2. 为什么在必需消费品中选中了白酒做防御？</b></p>\n<p>因为中国的白酒有着绝佳的商业模式。品牌影响力已经形成，高毛利率、高净利率，现金流极佳，购买频次高，再加上酒精产品具有致瘾性。这使得白酒在必需消费品中脱颖而出，成为市场在做防御时的最佳品种。</p>\n<p>“时无英雄，使竖子成名”这个词，带有一丝轻蔑的语气。但这个典故其实非常符合现在股市众多参与者的心理。</p>\n<p>比如军工市场不好的时候，就有研究员说，全部军工行业的市值还不如一瓶茅台。等战争来了，我们要靠喝茅台去争取和平么？</p>\n<p>可是，就是竖子也不是谁都能做的。你不得不承认，哪怕是被称为锦鲤的村花杨超越，自身也有着非常优秀的素质，既包括外形上的，也包括心理上的。</p>\n<p>至于茅台，就不用说了。<b>茅台，目前基本上是现金等价物，高达92%的毛利率，简直就是行走的印钞机。</b></p>\n<p>白酒的身上，确实有太多不被看好的槽点。看空白酒最大的逻辑就是，现在的年轻人注重健康，不喝白酒，所以白酒的需求量会越来越小。这个逻辑的问题是，<b>你根本不知道现在的年轻人将来上了年纪之后，是不是会开始喝白酒。</b></p>\n<p>最极端的例子，北方东北山东的很多上了年纪的女人，年轻的时候也是什么都不喝，进入老年之后普遍都能喝点白酒。</p>\n<p>至于白酒越陈越香也是个伪命题。高浓度的酒精会抑制有机物质的活化，所以高度酒酿成之后就变化不大，越陈越香的是黄酒。现在卖的三十年五十年陈的白酒，都不是真的放了三十年五十年，都是调制酒。</p>\n<p>真正的陈年的酱香酒，会有一股焦糊味，喜欢的人并不多。</p>\n<p>那白酒行情什么时候会结束呢？</p>\n<p>作为一个防御品种，白酒行情的结束并不取决于自身的业绩，而是由未来宏观经济状况决定的。白酒成长的慢，确实有些让人乏味，没有光伏、电动车有那么大的想象空间。但当大家都在走路的时候，有辆自行车骑也不错啊。</p>\n<p>白酒，就是那辆自行车。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n行走的印钞机：白酒何时才会结束涨势？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1075158368\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">锦缎 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-16 10:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>《晋书·阮籍传》记载：“尝登广武，观楚汉战处，叹曰：“时无英雄，使竖子成名。”</p>\n<p>最后这9个字，恰好解答了当前A股投资者的一个普遍性迷茫：白酒为何一直涨？</p>\n<p>下图是2010年以来，白酒与A股三个主要指数的走势对比图：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f979de1393fb22b0f8dd550fea3d0e07\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"437\"></p>\n<p>2010年以来，沪深300、中证1000和创业板指，全都没有超过2015年牛市的高点。只有白酒，很快就从熊市氛围中恢复过来，并在最近的这几年里，不断的勇创新高。</p>\n<p>于是，每当市场有风吹草动，各路段子手纷纷出动，空气中弥漫着柠檬的味道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “中国股市只有两种科技，酱香型科技和浓香型科技”。“有机构投委会看完泡泡玛特的火爆后，开始认真考虑要不要提拔几个90后的基金经理，不过压力最大的是，他们的业绩明显跑不赢做白酒的70后，提拔理由不充分。”“茅台到底是可选消费还是必需消费？回答是，卖1499元的茅台是必需，卖3000块的是可选。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>与其在那等着白酒股跌下来，我们不如来思考一下，白酒整体的投资逻辑。为什么白酒会一直涨，一直涨到现在成为市场的信仰。</p>\n<p>2019年7月12日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06178\">光大证券</a>出了一篇研究报告《一杯敬传承，一杯敬繁华——白酒行业深度报告之框架篇》，给出了一个非常复杂的研究框架（见下图），从供需、量价，还有宏观、中观、微观三个方面分析白酒行业。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641a83a6394899f18984c5a9869a2156\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"635\"></p>\n<p>不能说这个研究没用，而只能说，一个体系，一个框架，变量越多，准确性越低，原因来自于蝴蝶效应的存在。</p>\n<p>1963年，美国科学家洛伦兹在用计算机进行地球大气的仿真运算的时候，为了观察结果，他尝试对中间的一个参数进行调整，将一个中间值0.506取出，提高精度到0.506127以后又放回，发现两个计算结果偏离了十万八千里，前后两条曲线的相似性完全消失。</p>\n<p>根据这个实验结果，洛伦茨提出了“蝴蝶效应”概念，也就是一个微小的初始条件的变化，可能会导致一连串的连锁反应，从而使系统发生极大的变化，让结果变得完全不可预测。</p>\n<p>回到光大的研究框架，其中的两个变量，光<b>居民收入水平和企业盈利能力</b>中的一个，就能让一个宏观经济研究员的头发掉光。发改委下属的中国宏观经济研究院，光研究员就有89位，每天的工作不过就是按着宏观经济这一个方向翻来覆去的研究。</p>\n<p>这个模型很全，但假设太多了，可以说结论完全取决于假设。我们客观的说，这些前提假设，还有这些中间变量，基本不可能做对，结果到底是什么样子纯靠蒙。</p>\n<p>炒个股而已，我们需要一个更简单、更实操的模型。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300788\">中信出版</a>社出过一个费希尔投资系列，其中有一本《必需消费品投资》，里面对必需消费品的股性有两张非常好的图。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94b1b1faf66df4f1a944b25c321b6ad\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"275\"></p>\n<p>第一张是股票自身的表现与个人消费支出（PCE）之间的关系图（见上图），可以发现，双方的走势基本上是同向的。这意味着个人消费支出越高，必需消费品企业的盈利越高，股票的表现也越好。</p>\n<p>但也不是总是如此，在上世纪90年代末，个人消费支出表现很好，但必需消费品股票表现却很差，因为那个阶段的牛市让资金转向了弹性较大的科技股。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c33127036c8eec7056cfa0dda17285\" tg-width=\"486\" tg-height=\"266\"></p>\n<p>第二张图则是必需消费品股票的相对表现与个人消费支出之间的关系图（见上图），双方的走势基本上是相反的。这意味着，当个人消费支出快速增加，经济繁荣的时候必需消费品的股票表现反而是落后的。</p>\n<p>因为经济繁荣，基金经理们更倾向于减少必选消费，增加弹性较大的科技股的投资。而当经济衰退，个人消费支出萎靡的时候，必需消费品的股票表现反而是好的，因为基金经理倾向于在组合中增加必需消费品股票进行防御。</p>\n<p>参照上面两张图，我们也有一个简单的白酒模型，大家只需要自己判断两个变量就好了。</p>\n<p>第一个变量，是宏观的大经济和流动性状况，这是最重要的变量。</p>\n<p><b>当宏观经济比较好，流动性非常宽松的时候，市场往往倾向于配置想象空间最大的行业。</b>在2007年的那波牛市中，是煤飞色舞，周期股一统天下，舍我其谁；到了2015年，则是各种互联网+。</p>\n<p>总之经济好转，流动性宽松，必需消费品就会被弃之如草芥，有飞机谁会骑自行车呢？</p>\n<p>第二个变量，是白酒的经营业绩。</p>\n<p><b>理论上来说，白酒的业绩越好，股价表现越好，但这个变量的重要性远不如第一个。</b></p>\n<p>你可以深挖白酒的经营业绩，预测茅台的一批价，然后计算各种白酒品牌的提价空间，但千万不要入戏太深。白酒业绩好，股票可能上涨，但并不必然。白酒业绩差，可能下跌，但也可能上涨，千万不要刻舟求剑。</p>\n<p>在这个框架下，我们就可以很好的解释一些问题：</p>\n<p><b>1. 白酒为什么最近一直涨？</b></p>\n<p>因为自2019年以来，经济总体上一直不太好，市场风险偏好不高，2020年还有疫情，市场倾向于防御。</p>\n<p><b>2. 为什么在必需消费品中选中了白酒做防御？</b></p>\n<p>因为中国的白酒有着绝佳的商业模式。品牌影响力已经形成，高毛利率、高净利率，现金流极佳，购买频次高，再加上酒精产品具有致瘾性。这使得白酒在必需消费品中脱颖而出，成为市场在做防御时的最佳品种。</p>\n<p>“时无英雄，使竖子成名”这个词，带有一丝轻蔑的语气。但这个典故其实非常符合现在股市众多参与者的心理。</p>\n<p>比如军工市场不好的时候，就有研究员说，全部军工行业的市值还不如一瓶茅台。等战争来了，我们要靠喝茅台去争取和平么？</p>\n<p>可是，就是竖子也不是谁都能做的。你不得不承认，哪怕是被称为锦鲤的村花杨超越，自身也有着非常优秀的素质，既包括外形上的，也包括心理上的。</p>\n<p>至于茅台，就不用说了。<b>茅台，目前基本上是现金等价物，高达92%的毛利率，简直就是行走的印钞机。</b></p>\n<p>白酒的身上，确实有太多不被看好的槽点。看空白酒最大的逻辑就是，现在的年轻人注重健康，不喝白酒，所以白酒的需求量会越来越小。这个逻辑的问题是，<b>你根本不知道现在的年轻人将来上了年纪之后，是不是会开始喝白酒。</b></p>\n<p>最极端的例子，北方东北山东的很多上了年纪的女人，年轻的时候也是什么都不喝，进入老年之后普遍都能喝点白酒。</p>\n<p>至于白酒越陈越香也是个伪命题。高浓度的酒精会抑制有机物质的活化，所以高度酒酿成之后就变化不大，越陈越香的是黄酒。现在卖的三十年五十年陈的白酒，都不是真的放了三十年五十年，都是调制酒。</p>\n<p>真正的陈年的酱香酒，会有一股焦糊味，喜欢的人并不多。</p>\n<p>那白酒行情什么时候会结束呢？</p>\n<p>作为一个防御品种，白酒行情的结束并不取决于自身的业绩，而是由未来宏观经济状况决定的。白酒成长的慢，确实有些让人乏味，没有光伏、电动车有那么大的想象空间。但当大家都在走路的时候，有辆自行车骑也不错啊。</p>\n<p>白酒，就是那辆自行车。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02b4a54f927a62b2fe018692a0eb06d","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141778748","content_text":"《晋书·阮籍传》记载：“尝登广武，观楚汉战处，叹曰：“时无英雄，使竖子成名。”\n最后这9个字，恰好解答了当前A股投资者的一个普遍性迷茫：白酒为何一直涨？\n下图是2010年以来，白酒与A股三个主要指数的走势对比图：\n\n2010年以来，沪深300、中证1000和创业板指，全都没有超过2015年牛市的高点。只有白酒，很快就从熊市氛围中恢复过来，并在最近的这几年里，不断的勇创新高。\n于是，每当市场有风吹草动，各路段子手纷纷出动，空气中弥漫着柠檬的味道：\n\n “中国股市只有两种科技，酱香型科技和浓香型科技”。“有机构投委会看完泡泡玛特的火爆后，开始认真考虑要不要提拔几个90后的基金经理，不过压力最大的是，他们的业绩明显跑不赢做白酒的70后，提拔理由不充分。”“茅台到底是可选消费还是必需消费？回答是，卖1499元的茅台是必需，卖3000块的是可选。”\n\n与其在那等着白酒股跌下来，我们不如来思考一下，白酒整体的投资逻辑。为什么白酒会一直涨，一直涨到现在成为市场的信仰。\n2019年7月12日，光大证券出了一篇研究报告《一杯敬传承，一杯敬繁华——白酒行业深度报告之框架篇》，给出了一个非常复杂的研究框架（见下图），从供需、量价，还有宏观、中观、微观三个方面分析白酒行业。\n\n不能说这个研究没用，而只能说，一个体系，一个框架，变量越多，准确性越低，原因来自于蝴蝶效应的存在。\n1963年，美国科学家洛伦兹在用计算机进行地球大气的仿真运算的时候，为了观察结果，他尝试对中间的一个参数进行调整，将一个中间值0.506取出，提高精度到0.506127以后又放回，发现两个计算结果偏离了十万八千里，前后两条曲线的相似性完全消失。\n根据这个实验结果，洛伦茨提出了“蝴蝶效应”概念，也就是一个微小的初始条件的变化，可能会导致一连串的连锁反应，从而使系统发生极大的变化，让结果变得完全不可预测。\n回到光大的研究框架，其中的两个变量，光居民收入水平和企业盈利能力中的一个，就能让一个宏观经济研究员的头发掉光。发改委下属的中国宏观经济研究院，光研究员就有89位，每天的工作不过就是按着宏观经济这一个方向翻来覆去的研究。\n这个模型很全，但假设太多了，可以说结论完全取决于假设。我们客观的说，这些前提假设，还有这些中间变量，基本不可能做对，结果到底是什么样子纯靠蒙。\n炒个股而已，我们需要一个更简单、更实操的模型。\n中信出版社出过一个费希尔投资系列，其中有一本《必需消费品投资》，里面对必需消费品的股性有两张非常好的图。\n\n第一张是股票自身的表现与个人消费支出（PCE）之间的关系图（见上图），可以发现，双方的走势基本上是同向的。这意味着个人消费支出越高，必需消费品企业的盈利越高，股票的表现也越好。\n但也不是总是如此，在上世纪90年代末，个人消费支出表现很好，但必需消费品股票表现却很差，因为那个阶段的牛市让资金转向了弹性较大的科技股。\n\n第二张图则是必需消费品股票的相对表现与个人消费支出之间的关系图（见上图），双方的走势基本上是相反的。这意味着，当个人消费支出快速增加，经济繁荣的时候必需消费品的股票表现反而是落后的。\n因为经济繁荣，基金经理们更倾向于减少必选消费，增加弹性较大的科技股的投资。而当经济衰退，个人消费支出萎靡的时候，必需消费品的股票表现反而是好的，因为基金经理倾向于在组合中增加必需消费品股票进行防御。\n参照上面两张图，我们也有一个简单的白酒模型，大家只需要自己判断两个变量就好了。\n第一个变量，是宏观的大经济和流动性状况，这是最重要的变量。\n当宏观经济比较好，流动性非常宽松的时候，市场往往倾向于配置想象空间最大的行业。在2007年的那波牛市中，是煤飞色舞，周期股一统天下，舍我其谁；到了2015年，则是各种互联网+。\n总之经济好转，流动性宽松，必需消费品就会被弃之如草芥，有飞机谁会骑自行车呢？\n第二个变量，是白酒的经营业绩。\n理论上来说，白酒的业绩越好，股价表现越好，但这个变量的重要性远不如第一个。\n你可以深挖白酒的经营业绩，预测茅台的一批价，然后计算各种白酒品牌的提价空间，但千万不要入戏太深。白酒业绩好，股票可能上涨，但并不必然。白酒业绩差，可能下跌，但也可能上涨，千万不要刻舟求剑。\n在这个框架下，我们就可以很好的解释一些问题：\n1. 白酒为什么最近一直涨？\n因为自2019年以来，经济总体上一直不太好，市场风险偏好不高，2020年还有疫情，市场倾向于防御。\n2. 为什么在必需消费品中选中了白酒做防御？\n因为中国的白酒有着绝佳的商业模式。品牌影响力已经形成，高毛利率、高净利率，现金流极佳，购买频次高，再加上酒精产品具有致瘾性。这使得白酒在必需消费品中脱颖而出，成为市场在做防御时的最佳品种。\n“时无英雄，使竖子成名”这个词，带有一丝轻蔑的语气。但这个典故其实非常符合现在股市众多参与者的心理。\n比如军工市场不好的时候，就有研究员说，全部军工行业的市值还不如一瓶茅台。等战争来了，我们要靠喝茅台去争取和平么？\n可是，就是竖子也不是谁都能做的。你不得不承认，哪怕是被称为锦鲤的村花杨超越，自身也有着非常优秀的素质，既包括外形上的，也包括心理上的。\n至于茅台，就不用说了。茅台，目前基本上是现金等价物，高达92%的毛利率，简直就是行走的印钞机。\n白酒的身上，确实有太多不被看好的槽点。看空白酒最大的逻辑就是，现在的年轻人注重健康，不喝白酒，所以白酒的需求量会越来越小。这个逻辑的问题是，你根本不知道现在的年轻人将来上了年纪之后，是不是会开始喝白酒。\n最极端的例子，北方东北山东的很多上了年纪的女人，年轻的时候也是什么都不喝，进入老年之后普遍都能喝点白酒。\n至于白酒越陈越香也是个伪命题。高浓度的酒精会抑制有机物质的活化，所以高度酒酿成之后就变化不大，越陈越香的是黄酒。现在卖的三十年五十年陈的白酒，都不是真的放了三十年五十年，都是调制酒。\n真正的陈年的酱香酒，会有一股焦糊味，喜欢的人并不多。\n那白酒行情什么时候会结束呢？\n作为一个防御品种，白酒行情的结束并不取决于自身的业绩，而是由未来宏观经济状况决定的。白酒成长的慢，确实有些让人乏味，没有光伏、电动车有那么大的想象空间。但当大家都在走路的时候，有辆自行车骑也不错啊。\n白酒，就是那辆自行车。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395421818,"gmtCreate":1607722451334,"gmtModify":1703849696978,"author":{"id":"3566875787069686","authorId":"3566875787069686","name":"小白杨752","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习","listText":"学习","text":"学习","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395421818","repostId":"396180873","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":396180873,"gmtCreate":1607066448092,"gmtModify":1712888672529,"author":{"id":"3557195192211409","authorId":"3557195192211409","name":"Speculator 1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21d72fd24c19b17fa11b85407d7010a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"查理.芒格","htmlText":"查理·芒格2019震撼演讲:走正道，路越走越宽！95岁的投资家查理·芒格在最近Daily Journal（《每日期刊》）公司年会演讲上，仍旧保持着一贯直率而睿智的谈话风格。会上芒格笑声不断，金句迭出，深入浅出地传达一些关于投资的理念和哲学思想。芒格非常看好中国市场：“中国的水可以。有些聪明人已经蹚进去了。时候到了，更多人会进场。中国的好公司比美国的好公司便宜。”一、常识：平常人没有的常识伯克希尔哈撒韦能取得巨大的成功，Daily Journal （《每日期刊》）能小有成就，没什么秘诀，就是追求基本的道德和健全的常识。大家都知道，所谓常识，是平常人没有的常识。我们在说某个人有常识的时候，我们其实是说，他具备平常人没有的常识。人们都以为具备常识很简单，其实很难。我举个例子。大量高智商的人进入了投资领域，都想方设法要比普通人做得更好。许多高智商的人蜂拥而至，在投资领域形成了别处罕见的景象，于是，怪事发生了。加州曾经有一家非常大的投资咨询公司，为了超过其他同行，它想到了一个点子。他们是这么想的：我们手下有这么多青年才俊，个个是沃顿、哈佛等名校毕业的高材生，他们都为了搞懂公司、为了搞懂市场趋势、为了搞懂一切，不遗余力地拼命工作，只要让这些青年才俊每人都拿出他认为最好的一个投资机会，我们把所有最好的机会集中起来形成组合，必然能遥遥领先指数啊。这家投资公司的人能觉得这样的点子行得通，是因为他们接受的教育太次了。他们满怀信心地付诸行动，结果毫无悬念地一败涂地。他们又试了一次，一败涂地。他们试了第三次，仍然失败。几百年前，炼金术士幻想把铅变成金子。炼金术士想得很美，他们觉得买来大量的铅，施一下魔法，把铅变成金子，就发大财了。刚才说的这家投资公司，没比几百年前的炼金术士高明到哪去，它不过是妄想把铅变成金子的现代翻版，根本成不了。本来我可以把这个道理讲给他们的，但是他们也没问过我啊。值得人深思的","listText":"查理·芒格2019震撼演讲:走正道，路越走越宽！95岁的投资家查理·芒格在最近Daily Journal（《每日期刊》）公司年会演讲上，仍旧保持着一贯直率而睿智的谈话风格。会上芒格笑声不断，金句迭出，深入浅出地传达一些关于投资的理念和哲学思想。芒格非常看好中国市场：“中国的水可以。有些聪明人已经蹚进去了。时候到了，更多人会进场。中国的好公司比美国的好公司便宜。”一、常识：平常人没有的常识伯克希尔哈撒韦能取得巨大的成功，Daily Journal （《每日期刊》）能小有成就，没什么秘诀，就是追求基本的道德和健全的常识。大家都知道，所谓常识，是平常人没有的常识。我们在说某个人有常识的时候，我们其实是说，他具备平常人没有的常识。人们都以为具备常识很简单，其实很难。我举个例子。大量高智商的人进入了投资领域，都想方设法要比普通人做得更好。许多高智商的人蜂拥而至，在投资领域形成了别处罕见的景象，于是，怪事发生了。加州曾经有一家非常大的投资咨询公司，为了超过其他同行，它想到了一个点子。他们是这么想的：我们手下有这么多青年才俊，个个是沃顿、哈佛等名校毕业的高材生，他们都为了搞懂公司、为了搞懂市场趋势、为了搞懂一切，不遗余力地拼命工作，只要让这些青年才俊每人都拿出他认为最好的一个投资机会，我们把所有最好的机会集中起来形成组合，必然能遥遥领先指数啊。这家投资公司的人能觉得这样的点子行得通，是因为他们接受的教育太次了。他们满怀信心地付诸行动，结果毫无悬念地一败涂地。他们又试了一次，一败涂地。他们试了第三次，仍然失败。几百年前，炼金术士幻想把铅变成金子。炼金术士想得很美，他们觉得买来大量的铅，施一下魔法，把铅变成金子，就发大财了。刚才说的这家投资公司，没比几百年前的炼金术士高明到哪去，它不过是妄想把铅变成金子的现代翻版，根本成不了。本来我可以把这个道理讲给他们的，但是他们也没问过我啊。值得人深思的","text":"查理·芒格2019震撼演讲:走正道，路越走越宽！95岁的投资家查理·芒格在最近Daily Journal（《每日期刊》）公司年会演讲上，仍旧保持着一贯直率而睿智的谈话风格。会上芒格笑声不断，金句迭出，深入浅出地传达一些关于投资的理念和哲学思想。芒格非常看好中国市场：“中国的水可以。有些聪明人已经蹚进去了。时候到了，更多人会进场。中国的好公司比美国的好公司便宜。”一、常识：平常人没有的常识伯克希尔哈撒韦能取得巨大的成功，Daily Journal （《每日期刊》）能小有成就，没什么秘诀，就是追求基本的道德和健全的常识。大家都知道，所谓常识，是平常人没有的常识。我们在说某个人有常识的时候，我们其实是说，他具备平常人没有的常识。人们都以为具备常识很简单，其实很难。我举个例子。大量高智商的人进入了投资领域，都想方设法要比普通人做得更好。许多高智商的人蜂拥而至，在投资领域形成了别处罕见的景象，于是，怪事发生了。加州曾经有一家非常大的投资咨询公司，为了超过其他同行，它想到了一个点子。他们是这么想的：我们手下有这么多青年才俊，个个是沃顿、哈佛等名校毕业的高材生，他们都为了搞懂公司、为了搞懂市场趋势、为了搞懂一切，不遗余力地拼命工作，只要让这些青年才俊每人都拿出他认为最好的一个投资机会，我们把所有最好的机会集中起来形成组合，必然能遥遥领先指数啊。这家投资公司的人能觉得这样的点子行得通，是因为他们接受的教育太次了。他们满怀信心地付诸行动，结果毫无悬念地一败涂地。他们又试了一次，一败涂地。他们试了第三次，仍然失败。几百年前，炼金术士幻想把铅变成金子。炼金术士想得很美，他们觉得买来大量的铅，施一下魔法，把铅变成金子，就发大财了。刚才说的这家投资公司，没比几百年前的炼金术士高明到哪去，它不过是妄想把铅变成金子的现代翻版，根本成不了。本来我可以把这个道理讲给他们的，但是他们也没问过我啊。值得人深思的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396180873","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}