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阿福巴巴
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IP属地:江苏
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阿福巴巴
11-21
$映宇宙(03700)$
比特币97000了,怎么还不涨?
阿福巴巴
11-20
$BTC Digital(BTCT)$
BTC有多少比特币?10000个?
阿福巴巴
11-01
回归指什么
@王勇敢:好久好久没关注社区了,以前那帮老熟人基本都销声匿迹了。看看自己,二十多岁的年轻小伙也熬成了中年秃头大叔,是时候回归了!
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$谷歌(GOOG)$
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
阿福巴巴
10-31
看好phunware ,川普当选后也还有行情的
阿福巴巴
10-31
Phunware inc.还有机会的,可以看到20刀
阿福巴巴
10-23
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
50块没问题的
阿福巴巴
10-22
$英特尔(INTC)$
真是垃圾
阿福巴巴
10-08
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
卖早了
阿福巴巴
10-08
给洗出去了
阿福巴巴
10-08
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
阿福巴巴
10-08
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
给洗出去了
阿福巴巴
07-18
intel雄起
英伟达等AI巨头狂跌之际,华尔街有了新宠:“AI后进者们”
阿福巴巴
06-28
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
查看详情:
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
快来参与实盘竞猜活动,寻找你心中的收益王者,竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
阿福巴巴
05-07
有多少人在用iPad?一台大屏的手机足用够了。
阿福巴巴
04-26
$寺库(SECO)$
退市了?股票怎么办?
阿福巴巴
04-23
$英特尔(INTC)$
$英特尔(INTC)$
阿福巴巴
2023-11-30
$知乎(ZH)$
艹!!!!!!!
阿福巴巴
2023-11-30
$知乎(ZH)$
知乎这是怎么了?跌这么多
阿福巴巴
2023-11-22
$国美零售(00493)$
年底前到1块钱
阿福巴巴
2023-08-18
$福特汽车(F)$
跌跌不休
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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22:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达等AI巨头狂跌之际,华尔街有了新宠:“AI后进者们”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2452157210","media":"智通财经网","summary":"英伟达等AI龙头们似乎失去光彩,“AI后进者们”获得资金青睐;Melius表示,“AI后进者们”,比如AMD、英特尔和IBM可能将出现“追赶交易”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等AI巨头们股价狂跌。未来,华尔街依然看好AI热潮,但将目光锁定在今年以来涨势远不如英伟达的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>等“AI后进者们”。相比于英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>等今年以来动辄60%以上涨幅的热门芯片巨头,英特尔与AMD这两大芯片巨头股价则显得疲软得多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041294920094acbaf28a63147a7b1714\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p><strong>华尔街知名投资机构Melius Research发布报告称,AI领域的这些“后进者们”,比如英特尔、AMD 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>甚至包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的股价涨势可能将在今年下半年开始追赶英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等人工智能领域的绝对领军者,引领新一轮的“AI投资狂潮”。</strong></p><p>这里的后进者并非指它们在AI技术方面处于发展落后态势<strong>,而是指它们在某一特定领域的发力布局时间相对较晚,市场份额远不及行业领军者,或者股价涨势落后于领军者们。</strong>比如全球AI芯片领导者英伟达在数据中心AI芯片领域份额接近90%,AMD份额则远远不及英伟达,<strong>但英伟达垄断地位毫无疑问将面临来自AMD的巨大威胁。英特尔虽然在数据中心AI芯片市场显得毫无份额可言,但凭借x86生态优势参与布局AI PC或将提振英特尔估值。</strong></p><p><strong>IBM相比于OpenAI、微软以及谷歌等AI领域大模型领军者的份额无疑处于相对劣势,但是凭借深度布局AI开发者生态平台以及依靠强大的开源联盟助力,属于“AI后进者”之一的IBM有望在AI大模型这一市场无比庞大的领域分一杯羹。</strong>苹果是否属于“AI后进者”则存在一定争议,一方面它属于“七大科技巨头”,股价层面有过分透支预期的可能性,另一方面它布局AI大模型的时间确实非常晚,但是凭借强大的iOS生态有望借助AI智能手机实现在大模型份额方面与OpenAI“平起平坐”。</p><p><strong>在全球最大规模资管巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>(BlackRock Inc.),以及欧洲资管巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">法国巴黎银行</a>资产管理机构(BNP Paribas Asset Management)等全球大型资管机构的基金经理和市场策略师们看来,全球股市围绕人工智能的这股史无前例投资狂潮远未宣告结束,新一轮的“AI投资狂潮”将继续驱动全球股市“长牛走势”——即不断创下历史新高。</strong>甚至有经济学家预言,基于AI技术发展的乐观情绪推动下的额外多重扩张预期,将推动美股基准指数——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在2025年创下7000点这一历史峰值。</p><p>华尔街投资机构押注,<strong>在上一轮AI狂潮推动之下经历了长达18个月的上涨后,“七大科技巨头”(Magnificent 7)可能会失去股价继续飙升的动力,因此他们将注意力转向了Melius Research所称的这些“人工智能后进者们”。</strong></p><p>占据标普500指数高额权重的美股七大科技巨头,即“Magnificent 7”,包括:苹果、微软、谷歌、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>以及Meta Platforms。全球投资者们在2023年全年以及2024年上半年持续蜂拥而至七大科技巨头,他们纷纷押注,在全球企业纷纷斥巨资布局生成式AI的这股狂热浪潮之下,由于苹果和谷歌等科技巨头们的庞大市场规模和财务实力,它们处于利用人工智能技术扩展营收的最佳位置。</p><p>Melius Research强调,包括英特尔、AMD和IBM,甚至苹果在内的这些科技公司均全面涉足人工智能领域,但在2023年以及今年上半年未能赶上人工智能领域最大赢家,比如英伟达的无与伦比涨幅。</p><p>过去一个月,英特尔、AMD和IBM这三家公司的股价表现明显优于科技巨头,而人工智能的代表龙头英伟达等科技巨头同期的股价表现则略有下滑。</p><p><strong>英特尔,也许是新一轮“AI投资狂潮”的最大AI赢家。特朗普胜选已经成为多数投资者的基本共识,而从最新的消息来看,有着“懂王”称号特朗普在贸易保护主义政策方面可能相比于2016年他上台时以及拜登政府时期更加猛烈。</strong>可以想象的是,奉行贸易保护政策、迫切希望高端制造业回流美国本土的“懂王”如果成功上台,未来对于英特尔的补贴支持力度或将不断升级。</p><p><strong>“AI后进者们”迎来这一强大趋势助力:美股投资风格切换</strong></p><p>至关重要的是,不仅在股价涨幅、市场情绪和盈利预期方面处于优势,“AI后进者们”业绩预期门槛也非常低,<strong>意味着业绩实现超预期相比于英伟达等股价飙升的巨头们容易得多,这表明它们在2024年剩下的时间里可能处于非常有利的地位。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69ce1e6703cd1ba38945a701edb85b1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><p><strong>美股风格切换也将有助于这些“AI后进者们”股价涨势,</strong>近期表现强劲的美股小盘股远超七大科技巨头。<strong>随着美联储降息预期大幅升温,市场资金开始转向七大科技巨头以外的那些潜在涨势十足的公司,</strong>毕竟巨头们估值已经非常高,<strong>市场在降息环境下青睐于股价更便宜且具备一定投资热度的股票标的,英特尔等“AI后进者们”无疑属于这一代表,不仅具有AI这一标签,还具备强大的基本面支撑。</strong></p><p>追踪小型科技股的指数周二上涨3%,创下去年12月以来的最大单日涨幅,而大型科技股指数下跌0.4%。尽管今年大盘股仍是表现出众的决定性因素,但过去一个月小盘股受到青睐。小盘科技股指数上涨了10%以上,而大型股的涨幅仅仅为3.8%。</p><p>Melius分析师本•雷茨(Ben Reitzes)在近日发布的一份报告中写道:“我们相信,市场对于那些半导体、硬件以及软件行业的预期较低的企业将出现‘追赶’交易行情,即涨势追赶那些估值高企的行业领军者。”他补充表示,类似的情况在2023年也出现过,上半年“弱势企业”在下半年股价表现良好。</p><p>值得注意的是,雷茨将七大科技巨头之一的苹果列入了“AI后进者”名单。自4月份以来,这家消费电子巨头的股价一直在稳步上涨,尤其自从苹果展示了人们期待已久的智能手机人工智能功能以来,股价一直尤为强劲。</p><p>来自Baird的科技板块策略团队表示,<strong>投资者开始转向基本面强劲但业绩预期非常低的股票,尤其是与AI相关的股票,这为它们的涨势留下颇具想象的空间。他表示:“人工智能领头羊们在过去一年翻了一番,今后可能将面临放缓。”“即使不是火箭科学家也会认为这些股票被过度持有,而且那些被忽视的股票可能会被不断补上。</strong>”</p><p>Baird还特别提到了其他他认为会从这一交易中受益的股票,包括软件公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIV\">F5 Inc</a>.、电子测量仪器公司Keysight Technologies Inc.,以及半导体相关公司Diodes Inc.、Coherent Corp.、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a>和Aehr Test Systems。</p><p>今年上半年,英伟达、微软以及谷歌等大型科技股推高了整个美股市场,这些公司的估值也来到了历史高位,使它们的涨势在2024年剩下的时间里面临更艰难的处境。花旗集团(Citigroup)的策略团队近期建议投资者们对于这些科技巨头实行获利了结策略,并“在整个价值链中重新平衡更广泛的人工智能股票”。</p><p>Bloomberg Intelligence预测数据显示,七大科技巨头利润增幅将大幅放缓。与此同时,<strong>像英伟达和微软这样的人工智能大赢家的股价相对于它们的长期市盈率有很大溢价,相比之下,IBM和英特尔这样的落后者估值就显得很便宜。</strong></p><p><strong>若“懂王”归来,英特尔将是下半年最大AI赢家?</strong></p><p>投资者们普遍认为特朗普遇袭事件可能将成为美国大选的最重要转折点之一,全面强化特朗普的政治领袖形象,尤其在支持者们心中,他被视为美国历史性的英雄之一,甚至有媒体将他与罗斯福相提并论。甚至在一些共和党支持者看来,特朗普在“上帝庇佑”之下躲过子弹,意味着下一任总统非他莫属。相比之下,来自民主党的对手——现任总统拜登的在临场反应、演讲逻辑甚至党内支持率等方面的弱点更为凸显。</p><p>美国2024大选预测平台Polymarket显示,特朗普在11月大选中获胜的概率在遭遇枪击事件后飙升约10个百分点,达到70%。而其竞争对手拜登的胜选概率则进一步跌至18%。</p><p>因此,特朗普胜选已经成为多数投资者的基本共识,而从最新的消息来看,有着“懂王”称号特朗普在贸易保护主义政策方面可能相比于2016年他上台时以及拜登政府时期更加猛烈。</p><p><strong>可以想象到的是,奉行贸易保护政策、迫切希望高端制造业回流美国本土的“懂王”如果成功上台,未来对于英特尔的补贴支持力度可谓将不断升级,也许“芯片代工之王”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>不久后将面临真正意义上的强大竞争对手将是英特尔。</strong></p><p><strong>从英特尔周三美股盘初的股价走势来看,英特尔在台积电、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>以及英伟达等众多芯片股股价暴跌超5%之际,盘初逆势大涨超6%!</strong></p><p>也许,市场已经开始定价“懂王”上台后英特尔可能成为最大赢家之一,以及定价“AI后进者”之一的英特尔在下半年有望凭借廉价股价和低估值以及AI标签来吸引越来越多资金,其股价涨势有望引领整个美股芯片板块。</p><p>Melius在研报中指出,<strong>AMD 和英特尔有望从AI PC浪潮中全面获益,这两大x86架构芯片巨头集成CPU+NPU+GPU的处理器硬件将用于搭载微软Windows操作系统的全新AI PC终端设备</strong>。与此同时微软即将在其“Copilot+ PC”中推出“Recall”功能,Melius表示这可能是最接近杀手级应用所带来的升级理由。</p><p><strong>在Melius看来,AI PC或将是英特尔股价持续上行的重要催化剂,英特尔数十年来深耕于PC端的x86架构CPU领域,早已在PC领域具备强大的软硬件与供应链合作体系以及庞大的忠诚用户群体。</strong></p><p>英特尔全新推出的酷睿Ultra 处理器将AI专用的神经处理单元(NPU)与Arc GPU集成至CPU,其中NPU专门用于AI推理任务加速,这一款集成CPU+NPU+GPU的中央处理器被设计为公司“最高效的处理器”,标志着AI PC时代正式到来。英特尔面向笔记本电脑的 Lunar Lake 处理器拟定于 2024 年下半年上市,这款芯片具有“全新的低功耗架构以及显著的 IPC 改进”,GPU 和 NPU模块的AI数据处理性能则比Meteor Lake 高出三倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7717f97d092b60da164b74cafe3dd0e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"554\"/></p><p>研究机构Canalys最新预测数据显示,<strong>2024年堪称“AI PC元年”,预计2024年全球AI PC出货量将达到 5100 万台,占个人电脑(PC) 总出货量的 19%。但这仅是市场转型的开始,预计到 2028 年,AI PC出货量将达到2.08亿台,预计届时占PC总出货量份额有望超过70%,2024 年至 2028 年期间的复合年增长率(CAGR)将达到惊人的42%。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达等AI巨头狂跌之际,华尔街有了新宠:“AI后进者们”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达等AI巨头狂跌之际,华尔街有了新宠:“AI后进者们”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-17 22:20 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1152328.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三,英伟达等AI巨头们股价狂跌。未来,华尔街依然看好AI热潮,但将目光锁定在今年以来涨势远不如英伟达的英特尔与AMD等“AI后进者们”。相比于英伟达、美光科技,以及博通等今年以来动辄60%以上涨幅的热门芯片巨头,英特尔与AMD这两大芯片巨头股价则显得疲软得多。华尔街知名投资机构Melius Research发布报告称,AI领域的这些“后进者们”,比如英特尔、AMD 、IBM甚至包括苹果的股价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1152328.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39f5931d4cf3fccc49c0e890fceb462","relate_stocks":{"BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","QCOM":"高通","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE 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CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1152328.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2452157210","content_text":"周三,英伟达等AI巨头们股价狂跌。未来,华尔街依然看好AI热潮,但将目光锁定在今年以来涨势远不如英伟达的英特尔与AMD等“AI后进者们”。相比于英伟达、美光科技,以及博通等今年以来动辄60%以上涨幅的热门芯片巨头,英特尔与AMD这两大芯片巨头股价则显得疲软得多。华尔街知名投资机构Melius Research发布报告称,AI领域的这些“后进者们”,比如英特尔、AMD 、IBM甚至包括苹果的股价涨势可能将在今年下半年开始追赶英伟达、微软和谷歌等人工智能领域的绝对领军者,引领新一轮的“AI投资狂潮”。这里的后进者并非指它们在AI技术方面处于发展落后态势,而是指它们在某一特定领域的发力布局时间相对较晚,市场份额远不及行业领军者,或者股价涨势落后于领军者们。比如全球AI芯片领导者英伟达在数据中心AI芯片领域份额接近90%,AMD份额则远远不及英伟达,但英伟达垄断地位毫无疑问将面临来自AMD的巨大威胁。英特尔虽然在数据中心AI芯片市场显得毫无份额可言,但凭借x86生态优势参与布局AI PC或将提振英特尔估值。IBM相比于OpenAI、微软以及谷歌等AI领域大模型领军者的份额无疑处于相对劣势,但是凭借深度布局AI开发者生态平台以及依靠强大的开源联盟助力,属于“AI后进者”之一的IBM有望在AI大模型这一市场无比庞大的领域分一杯羹。苹果是否属于“AI后进者”则存在一定争议,一方面它属于“七大科技巨头”,股价层面有过分透支预期的可能性,另一方面它布局AI大模型的时间确实非常晚,但是凭借强大的iOS生态有望借助AI智能手机实现在大模型份额方面与OpenAI“平起平坐”。在全球最大规模资管巨头贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.),以及欧洲资管巨头法国巴黎银行资产管理机构(BNP Paribas Asset Management)等全球大型资管机构的基金经理和市场策略师们看来,全球股市围绕人工智能的这股史无前例投资狂潮远未宣告结束,新一轮的“AI投资狂潮”将继续驱动全球股市“长牛走势”——即不断创下历史新高。甚至有经济学家预言,基于AI技术发展的乐观情绪推动下的额外多重扩张预期,将推动美股基准指数——标普500指数在2025年创下7000点这一历史峰值。华尔街投资机构押注,在上一轮AI狂潮推动之下经历了长达18个月的上涨后,“七大科技巨头”(Magnificent 7)可能会失去股价继续飙升的动力,因此他们将注意力转向了Melius Research所称的这些“人工智能后进者们”。占据标普500指数高额权重的美股七大科技巨头,即“Magnificent 7”,包括:苹果、微软、谷歌、特斯拉、英伟达、亚马逊以及Meta Platforms。全球投资者们在2023年全年以及2024年上半年持续蜂拥而至七大科技巨头,他们纷纷押注,在全球企业纷纷斥巨资布局生成式AI的这股狂热浪潮之下,由于苹果和谷歌等科技巨头们的庞大市场规模和财务实力,它们处于利用人工智能技术扩展营收的最佳位置。Melius Research强调,包括英特尔、AMD和IBM,甚至苹果在内的这些科技公司均全面涉足人工智能领域,但在2023年以及今年上半年未能赶上人工智能领域最大赢家,比如英伟达的无与伦比涨幅。过去一个月,英特尔、AMD和IBM这三家公司的股价表现明显优于科技巨头,而人工智能的代表龙头英伟达等科技巨头同期的股价表现则略有下滑。英特尔,也许是新一轮“AI投资狂潮”的最大AI赢家。特朗普胜选已经成为多数投资者的基本共识,而从最新的消息来看,有着“懂王”称号特朗普在贸易保护主义政策方面可能相比于2016年他上台时以及拜登政府时期更加猛烈。可以想象的是,奉行贸易保护政策、迫切希望高端制造业回流美国本土的“懂王”如果成功上台,未来对于英特尔的补贴支持力度或将不断升级。“AI后进者们”迎来这一强大趋势助力:美股投资风格切换至关重要的是,不仅在股价涨幅、市场情绪和盈利预期方面处于优势,“AI后进者们”业绩预期门槛也非常低,意味着业绩实现超预期相比于英伟达等股价飙升的巨头们容易得多,这表明它们在2024年剩下的时间里可能处于非常有利的地位。美股风格切换也将有助于这些“AI后进者们”股价涨势,近期表现强劲的美股小盘股远超七大科技巨头。随着美联储降息预期大幅升温,市场资金开始转向七大科技巨头以外的那些潜在涨势十足的公司,毕竟巨头们估值已经非常高,市场在降息环境下青睐于股价更便宜且具备一定投资热度的股票标的,英特尔等“AI后进者们”无疑属于这一代表,不仅具有AI这一标签,还具备强大的基本面支撑。追踪小型科技股的指数周二上涨3%,创下去年12月以来的最大单日涨幅,而大型科技股指数下跌0.4%。尽管今年大盘股仍是表现出众的决定性因素,但过去一个月小盘股受到青睐。小盘科技股指数上涨了10%以上,而大型股的涨幅仅仅为3.8%。Melius分析师本•雷茨(Ben Reitzes)在近日发布的一份报告中写道:“我们相信,市场对于那些半导体、硬件以及软件行业的预期较低的企业将出现‘追赶’交易行情,即涨势追赶那些估值高企的行业领军者。”他补充表示,类似的情况在2023年也出现过,上半年“弱势企业”在下半年股价表现良好。值得注意的是,雷茨将七大科技巨头之一的苹果列入了“AI后进者”名单。自4月份以来,这家消费电子巨头的股价一直在稳步上涨,尤其自从苹果展示了人们期待已久的智能手机人工智能功能以来,股价一直尤为强劲。来自Baird的科技板块策略团队表示,投资者开始转向基本面强劲但业绩预期非常低的股票,尤其是与AI相关的股票,这为它们的涨势留下颇具想象的空间。他表示:“人工智能领头羊们在过去一年翻了一番,今后可能将面临放缓。”“即使不是火箭科学家也会认为这些股票被过度持有,而且那些被忽视的股票可能会被不断补上。”Baird还特别提到了其他他认为会从这一交易中受益的股票,包括软件公司F5 Inc.、电子测量仪器公司Keysight Technologies Inc.,以及半导体相关公司Diodes Inc.、Coherent Corp.、Lumentum Holdings Inc.和Aehr Test Systems。今年上半年,英伟达、微软以及谷歌等大型科技股推高了整个美股市场,这些公司的估值也来到了历史高位,使它们的涨势在2024年剩下的时间里面临更艰难的处境。花旗集团(Citigroup)的策略团队近期建议投资者们对于这些科技巨头实行获利了结策略,并“在整个价值链中重新平衡更广泛的人工智能股票”。Bloomberg Intelligence预测数据显示,七大科技巨头利润增幅将大幅放缓。与此同时,像英伟达和微软这样的人工智能大赢家的股价相对于它们的长期市盈率有很大溢价,相比之下,IBM和英特尔这样的落后者估值就显得很便宜。若“懂王”归来,英特尔将是下半年最大AI赢家?投资者们普遍认为特朗普遇袭事件可能将成为美国大选的最重要转折点之一,全面强化特朗普的政治领袖形象,尤其在支持者们心中,他被视为美国历史性的英雄之一,甚至有媒体将他与罗斯福相提并论。甚至在一些共和党支持者看来,特朗普在“上帝庇佑”之下躲过子弹,意味着下一任总统非他莫属。相比之下,来自民主党的对手——现任总统拜登的在临场反应、演讲逻辑甚至党内支持率等方面的弱点更为凸显。美国2024大选预测平台Polymarket显示,特朗普在11月大选中获胜的概率在遭遇枪击事件后飙升约10个百分点,达到70%。而其竞争对手拜登的胜选概率则进一步跌至18%。因此,特朗普胜选已经成为多数投资者的基本共识,而从最新的消息来看,有着“懂王”称号特朗普在贸易保护主义政策方面可能相比于2016年他上台时以及拜登政府时期更加猛烈。可以想象到的是,奉行贸易保护政策、迫切希望高端制造业回流美国本土的“懂王”如果成功上台,未来对于英特尔的补贴支持力度可谓将不断升级,也许“芯片代工之王”台积电不久后将面临真正意义上的强大竞争对手将是英特尔。从英特尔周三美股盘初的股价走势来看,英特尔在台积电、阿斯麦以及英伟达等众多芯片股股价暴跌超5%之际,盘初逆势大涨超6%!也许,市场已经开始定价“懂王”上台后英特尔可能成为最大赢家之一,以及定价“AI后进者”之一的英特尔在下半年有望凭借廉价股价和低估值以及AI标签来吸引越来越多资金,其股价涨势有望引领整个美股芯片板块。Melius在研报中指出,AMD 和英特尔有望从AI PC浪潮中全面获益,这两大x86架构芯片巨头集成CPU+NPU+GPU的处理器硬件将用于搭载微软Windows操作系统的全新AI PC终端设备。与此同时微软即将在其“Copilot+ PC”中推出“Recall”功能,Melius表示这可能是最接近杀手级应用所带来的升级理由。在Melius看来,AI PC或将是英特尔股价持续上行的重要催化剂,英特尔数十年来深耕于PC端的x86架构CPU领域,早已在PC领域具备强大的软硬件与供应链合作体系以及庞大的忠诚用户群体。英特尔全新推出的酷睿Ultra 处理器将AI专用的神经处理单元(NPU)与Arc GPU集成至CPU,其中NPU专门用于AI推理任务加速,这一款集成CPU+NPU+GPU的中央处理器被设计为公司“最高效的处理器”,标志着AI PC时代正式到来。英特尔面向笔记本电脑的 Lunar Lake 处理器拟定于 2024 年下半年上市,这款芯片具有“全新的低功耗架构以及显著的 IPC 改进”,GPU 和 NPU模块的AI数据处理性能则比Meteor Lake 高出三倍。研究机构Canalys最新预测数据显示,2024年堪称“AI PC元年”,预计2024年全球AI PC出货量将达到 5100 万台,占个人电脑(PC) 总出货量的 19%。但这仅是市场转型的开始,预计到 2028 年,AI PC出货量将达到2.08亿台,预计届时占PC总出货量份额有望超过70%,2024 年至 2028 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