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红红火火百万

红红火火百万

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红红火火百万

2023-02-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 666。

红红火火百万

2023-02-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 买买买，天天大涨

红红火火百万

2023-02-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 理财产品？天天涨

红红火火百万

2022-08-18

$蔚来(NIO)$天天跌？

红红火火百万

2022-08-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$涨3个点，近期期权还亏

红红火火百万

2022-07-18

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$咋买，买了就二死二死的

红红火火百万

2022-07-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这惹不起，突然一上一下

红红火火百万

2022-06-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$下来吧

红红火火百万

2022-01-06

咋跌这么凶

2022年，美股的这五大风险不得不防！

红红火火百万

2021-09-14

$蔚来(NIO)$哟哟哟哟

红红火火百万

2021-03-01

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$要死不活的

红红火火百万

2021-01-08

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$加油加油！！毛起涨哦

红红火火百万

2021-01-01

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$modelY上市了。对你有影响吗

红红火火百万

2020-12-31

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$吃了药？天天这么猛

红红火火百万

2020-12-29

$百度(BIDU)$每天都是同样的味道

红红火火百万

2020-12-28

$百度(BIDU)$咋每次都这样稳不起

红红火火百万

2020-12-24

$百度(BIDU)$百度，你怎么了，盘前你跟跌什么意思

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>下来吧","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$下来吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683070472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695828373,"gmtCreate":1641416093196,"gmtModify":1641416093196,"author":{"id":"3565907340197136","authorId":"3565907340197136","name":"红红火火百万","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7a87e845e16ad631b66edbd574d2fd5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565907340197136","authorIdStr":"3565907340197136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"咋跌这么凶","listText":"咋跌这么凶","text":"咋跌这么凶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695828373","repostId":"1160476398","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1160476398","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1641380901,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160476398?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-05 19:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2022年，美股的这五大风险不得不防！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160476398","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"美股在2021年完美收官！美国标准普尔500指数大盘全年收于4766.18点，较2020年上涨了26.9%，这是自2019年以来的最佳表现，也是1997年上涨31%以来的第三强表现。与此同时，道琼斯工","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美股在2021年完美收官！美国标准普尔500指数大盘全年收于4766.18点，较2020年上涨了26.9%，这是自2019年以来的最佳表现，也是1997年上涨31%以来的第三强表现。与此同时，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了18.8%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了21.4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d764b98d376a7ae12f46958998e5039\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>那么，美股在2021年实现过去20年从未有过的巨大涨幅以后，市场投资者接下来还能期待什么？</p><p>历史表明，这种势头在2022年可能会持续下去，事实上，从2008-2009年金融危机以来，美国股市就一路上涨。但是，更多压力和风险仍在积累，华尔街仍然需要应对来自新冠疫情、通胀、利率、地缘政治等一系列的担忧。</p><p>也就是说，虽然2022年美股仍会有一个好年景，但是波动性会加剧。也正因如此，我们会听到华尔街的分析师们多次讨论——保持谨慎和耐心的必要性。当然，应该不会像2020年年初那样动荡——当时疫情恐慌导致标普500指数在一个月内暴跌了35%，现在情况不会这么糟了，2022年开盘，标普500指数在首个交易日中收于创纪录的4796.56点。</p><p>看涨2022年美股表现的理由有很多，包括，美国经济继续增长，消费者支出保持强劲，就业市场正在扩大等等。其中，美国劳工部预计周五公布的非农数据将会报告，12月非农就业人数增加40万人，失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。</p><p>而且，另一方面看，作为市场真正推动力的美股公司收益增长也大幅扩大，三季度，华尔街的公司收益同比增长了27.1%。</p><p>科技股仍然是市场的主力军：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>市值达到3万亿美元；同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>2021年交付同比大增87%，达到93.6万辆，公司股价在2021年上涨了50%，本周一飙升了13%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f77df01e8e0b3fb2158a3e9d70d699a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>值得关注的是，特斯拉的市值接近1.2万亿美元，在美国公司中排名第五，仅次于苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>。</p><p>虽然新冠疫情仍然持续，但是目前的数据和研究表明，11月感恩节前后开始流行的Omicron毒株的症状更加温和。而且美国食品药监局的前官员Scott Gottlieb此前在接受媒体采访时表示，Omicron疫情可能会在几周后就偃旗息鼓，他补充称，如果数据无误，人们继续接种疫苗，病毒的威胁到今年秋季就会小很多。他建议，未来美国人每年都接种新冠疫苗，就像他们接种流感疫苗一样。</p><p><b>当然，市场仍然存在一些潜在的风险不得不防：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、利率上升</b></blockquote><p>美联储终于下定决心缩减2020年对市场注入的大量资金，以抑制逐步失控的通胀问题。</p><p>新冠疫情以来，美联储维持利率在零的水平，这帮助美股从2020年春季的暴跌中反弹，而且还推动美国房屋市场的销售，还有大量投资者购买用于出租的房屋和公寓。</p><p>与此同时，这段时间以来，汽油价格已经飙升了50%，运费、食品、新车、二手车的价格都出现了大幅上涨。工人们要求提高工资，甚至不惜辞职以达目的。</p><p>美联储对抗通胀最直接的方式就是提高利率。市场目前预计美联储可能会在秋季开始加息进程，2022年全年有望加息2-3次。因为加息预期，周一美国债券收益率走高，基准十年期美债的收益率触及1.628%，为3月31日触及1.746%的峰值以来的最高水平。</p><p>那么，加息真的就是“末日来临”吗？不见得，不过，投资者仍然需要谨慎管理加息带来的风险，美联储在2003年开始加息时，虽然没有立刻拖累市场，但是在随后的三四年后，开始对市场产生影响，并且一定程度上导致了2008-2009年的金融危机。</p><blockquote><b>2、利率上升背景下，股票估值偏高</b></blockquote><p>在标普500指数的成分股中，2021年全年有434只股票收盘上涨，其中，标普的96只个股的年涨幅超过50%，而道指的30只成分股中就有23只个股上涨，纳斯达克100指数中也有74家成分股公司的股价上涨。</p><p>个股方面，2021年，疫苗制造商Moderna Inc和网络安全软件和硬件提供商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTNT\">飞塔信息</a>公司涨幅均超过100%；此外，苹果在2021年上涨了34%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>公司股价大涨125%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf16eecd2f975653b229ccacde0417da\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，需要注意的是，很多小型公司的回报率不及大盘股。而且，随着2021年结束，创出新高的股票数量远远落后于创出新低的股票数量。</p><p>也就是说，眼下的风险是，如果利率上升得太快（假设是+5%），股票就会做出糟糕的反应，这是1987年股市暴跌时发生的情况，也是2008-2009年金融危机的主要原因。</p><blockquote><b>3、持续的通胀压力</b></blockquote><p>通货膨胀的威胁没有消失，而且它将给股市带来压力。</p><p>通胀的一个因素当然是疫情，这场严重的全球公共卫生危机严重扰乱了全球贸易体系，直接导致了供应链危机；另一个因素是，人们在疫情期间纷纷辞职，迫使雇主不得不提高工资继续招聘；还有一个催化剂是来自原油，OPEC+削减了石油供应，直接导致2021年美国汽油零售价格上涨近50%。</p><blockquote><b>4、疫情挥之不去</b></blockquote><p>还记得去年春天，全球范围内出现了短暂的缓解，病例数量开始减少。然而，当Delta和Omicron出现时，这个情况又改变了。</p><p>Omicron于11月下旬出现，传播极快，以至于重新开放的各大娱乐场所都不得不关闭，餐馆的生意也突然下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba9cb161d6e51d64b55c22d9b155009\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>休闲连锁餐厅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RRGB\">Red Robin Gourmet Burgers</a> Inc在去年一季度股价翻了一番，公司信心满满地告诉人们，疫情最糟糕的时期已经过去了。然而，公司股价在三季度和四季度分别下跌了30%和28%，因为疫情卷土重来，顾客们再次对餐厅就餐变得谨慎起来。</p><blockquote><b>5、美国中期选举的不确定性、气候变化等风险</b></blockquote><p>很多人担心，美国的中期选举会引发像2021年1月6日国会暴乱那样的暴力事件。随着不确定性不断增加，可能会降低全球投资者对美国公司的信心。</p><p>另外，气候变化也是投资者需要关注的重要议题，过去一年，风暴、野火、恶劣天气等气候事件不断发生，然而，国际社会仍然未对这一问题达成共识，这是一个令人不安的理由。</p><p><b>总 结</b></p><p>美股并不一定会因为美联储暗示加息就跳水，通胀也并不总是坏事，尤其它可以促使一些公司提高价格、提高盈利能力，使其对投资者更具吸引力。但是，这些事件确实会给投资者的投资决策带来不确定性。与此同时，全球的紧张局势、新冠、气候变化等因素，都会给市场增添更多不确定性。</p><p>总体而言，美股的基本面仍然坚实，但是投资者不应该忽视不确定性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022年，美股的这五大风险不得不防！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022年，美股的这五大风险不得不防！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-05 19:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美股在2021年完美收官！美国标准普尔500指数大盘全年收于4766.18点，较2020年上涨了26.9%，这是自2019年以来的最佳表现，也是1997年上涨31%以来的第三强表现。与此同时，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了18.8%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了21.4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d764b98d376a7ae12f46958998e5039\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>那么，美股在2021年实现过去20年从未有过的巨大涨幅以后，市场投资者接下来还能期待什么？</p><p>历史表明，这种势头在2022年可能会持续下去，事实上，从2008-2009年金融危机以来，美国股市就一路上涨。但是，更多压力和风险仍在积累，华尔街仍然需要应对来自新冠疫情、通胀、利率、地缘政治等一系列的担忧。</p><p>也就是说，虽然2022年美股仍会有一个好年景，但是波动性会加剧。也正因如此，我们会听到华尔街的分析师们多次讨论——保持谨慎和耐心的必要性。当然，应该不会像2020年年初那样动荡——当时疫情恐慌导致标普500指数在一个月内暴跌了35%，现在情况不会这么糟了，2022年开盘，标普500指数在首个交易日中收于创纪录的4796.56点。</p><p>看涨2022年美股表现的理由有很多，包括，美国经济继续增长，消费者支出保持强劲，就业市场正在扩大等等。其中，美国劳工部预计周五公布的非农数据将会报告，12月非农就业人数增加40万人，失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。</p><p>而且，另一方面看，作为市场真正推动力的美股公司收益增长也大幅扩大，三季度，华尔街的公司收益同比增长了27.1%。</p><p>科技股仍然是市场的主力军：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>市值达到3万亿美元；同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>2021年交付同比大增87%，达到93.6万辆，公司股价在2021年上涨了50%，本周一飙升了13%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f77df01e8e0b3fb2158a3e9d70d699a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>值得关注的是，特斯拉的市值接近1.2万亿美元，在美国公司中排名第五，仅次于苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>。</p><p>虽然新冠疫情仍然持续，但是目前的数据和研究表明，11月感恩节前后开始流行的Omicron毒株的症状更加温和。而且美国食品药监局的前官员Scott Gottlieb此前在接受媒体采访时表示，Omicron疫情可能会在几周后就偃旗息鼓，他补充称，如果数据无误，人们继续接种疫苗，病毒的威胁到今年秋季就会小很多。他建议，未来美国人每年都接种新冠疫苗，就像他们接种流感疫苗一样。</p><p><b>当然，市场仍然存在一些潜在的风险不得不防：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、利率上升</b></blockquote><p>美联储终于下定决心缩减2020年对市场注入的大量资金，以抑制逐步失控的通胀问题。</p><p>新冠疫情以来，美联储维持利率在零的水平，这帮助美股从2020年春季的暴跌中反弹，而且还推动美国房屋市场的销售，还有大量投资者购买用于出租的房屋和公寓。</p><p>与此同时，这段时间以来，汽油价格已经飙升了50%，运费、食品、新车、二手车的价格都出现了大幅上涨。工人们要求提高工资，甚至不惜辞职以达目的。</p><p>美联储对抗通胀最直接的方式就是提高利率。市场目前预计美联储可能会在秋季开始加息进程，2022年全年有望加息2-3次。因为加息预期，周一美国债券收益率走高，基准十年期美债的收益率触及1.628%，为3月31日触及1.746%的峰值以来的最高水平。</p><p>那么，加息真的就是“末日来临”吗？不见得，不过，投资者仍然需要谨慎管理加息带来的风险，美联储在2003年开始加息时，虽然没有立刻拖累市场，但是在随后的三四年后，开始对市场产生影响，并且一定程度上导致了2008-2009年的金融危机。</p><blockquote><b>2、利率上升背景下，股票估值偏高</b></blockquote><p>在标普500指数的成分股中，2021年全年有434只股票收盘上涨，其中，标普的96只个股的年涨幅超过50%，而道指的30只成分股中就有23只个股上涨，纳斯达克100指数中也有74家成分股公司的股价上涨。</p><p>个股方面，2021年，疫苗制造商Moderna Inc和网络安全软件和硬件提供商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTNT\">飞塔信息</a>公司涨幅均超过100%；此外，苹果在2021年上涨了34%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>公司股价大涨125%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf16eecd2f975653b229ccacde0417da\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，需要注意的是，很多小型公司的回报率不及大盘股。而且，随着2021年结束，创出新高的股票数量远远落后于创出新低的股票数量。</p><p>也就是说，眼下的风险是，如果利率上升得太快（假设是+5%），股票就会做出糟糕的反应，这是1987年股市暴跌时发生的情况，也是2008-2009年金融危机的主要原因。</p><blockquote><b>3、持续的通胀压力</b></blockquote><p>通货膨胀的威胁没有消失，而且它将给股市带来压力。</p><p>通胀的一个因素当然是疫情，这场严重的全球公共卫生危机严重扰乱了全球贸易体系，直接导致了供应链危机；另一个因素是，人们在疫情期间纷纷辞职，迫使雇主不得不提高工资继续招聘；还有一个催化剂是来自原油，OPEC+削减了石油供应，直接导致2021年美国汽油零售价格上涨近50%。</p><blockquote><b>4、疫情挥之不去</b></blockquote><p>还记得去年春天，全球范围内出现了短暂的缓解，病例数量开始减少。然而，当Delta和Omicron出现时，这个情况又改变了。</p><p>Omicron于11月下旬出现，传播极快，以至于重新开放的各大娱乐场所都不得不关闭，餐馆的生意也突然下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba9cb161d6e51d64b55c22d9b155009\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>休闲连锁餐厅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RRGB\">Red Robin Gourmet Burgers</a> Inc在去年一季度股价翻了一番，公司信心满满地告诉人们，疫情最糟糕的时期已经过去了。然而，公司股价在三季度和四季度分别下跌了30%和28%，因为疫情卷土重来，顾客们再次对餐厅就餐变得谨慎起来。</p><blockquote><b>5、美国中期选举的不确定性、气候变化等风险</b></blockquote><p>很多人担心，美国的中期选举会引发像2021年1月6日国会暴乱那样的暴力事件。随着不确定性不断增加，可能会降低全球投资者对美国公司的信心。</p><p>另外，气候变化也是投资者需要关注的重要议题，过去一年，风暴、野火、恶劣天气等气候事件不断发生，然而，国际社会仍然未对这一问题达成共识，这是一个令人不安的理由。</p><p><b>总 结</b></p><p>美股并不一定会因为美联储暗示加息就跳水，通胀也并不总是坏事，尤其它可以促使一些公司提高价格、提高盈利能力，使其对投资者更具吸引力。但是，这些事件确实会给投资者的投资决策带来不确定性。与此同时，全球的紧张局势、新冠、气候变化等因素，都会给市场增添更多不确定性。</p><p>总体而言，美股的基本面仍然坚实，但是投资者不应该忽视不确定性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160476398","content_text":"美股在2021年完美收官！美国标准普尔500指数大盘全年收于4766.18点，较2020年上涨了26.9%，这是自2019年以来的最佳表现，也是1997年上涨31%以来的第三强表现。与此同时，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了18.8%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了21.4%。那么，美股在2021年实现过去20年从未有过的巨大涨幅以后，市场投资者接下来还能期待什么？历史表明，这种势头在2022年可能会持续下去，事实上，从2008-2009年金融危机以来，美国股市就一路上涨。但是，更多压力和风险仍在积累，华尔街仍然需要应对来自新冠疫情、通胀、利率、地缘政治等一系列的担忧。也就是说，虽然2022年美股仍会有一个好年景，但是波动性会加剧。也正因如此，我们会听到华尔街的分析师们多次讨论——保持谨慎和耐心的必要性。当然，应该不会像2020年年初那样动荡——当时疫情恐慌导致标普500指数在一个月内暴跌了35%，现在情况不会这么糟了，2022年开盘，标普500指数在首个交易日中收于创纪录的4796.56点。看涨2022年美股表现的理由有很多，包括，美国经济继续增长，消费者支出保持强劲，就业市场正在扩大等等。其中，美国劳工部预计周五公布的非农数据将会报告，12月非农就业人数增加40万人，失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。而且，另一方面看，作为市场真正推动力的美股公司收益增长也大幅扩大，三季度，华尔街的公司收益同比增长了27.1%。科技股仍然是市场的主力军：苹果市值达到3万亿美元；同时，特斯拉2021年交付同比大增87%，达到93.6万辆，公司股价在2021年上涨了50%，本周一飙升了13%。值得关注的是，特斯拉的市值接近1.2万亿美元，在美国公司中排名第五，仅次于苹果、微软、谷歌和亚马逊。虽然新冠疫情仍然持续，但是目前的数据和研究表明，11月感恩节前后开始流行的Omicron毒株的症状更加温和。而且美国食品药监局的前官员Scott Gottlieb此前在接受媒体采访时表示，Omicron疫情可能会在几周后就偃旗息鼓，他补充称，如果数据无误，人们继续接种疫苗，病毒的威胁到今年秋季就会小很多。他建议，未来美国人每年都接种新冠疫苗，就像他们接种流感疫苗一样。当然，市场仍然存在一些潜在的风险不得不防：1、利率上升美联储终于下定决心缩减2020年对市场注入的大量资金，以抑制逐步失控的通胀问题。新冠疫情以来，美联储维持利率在零的水平，这帮助美股从2020年春季的暴跌中反弹，而且还推动美国房屋市场的销售，还有大量投资者购买用于出租的房屋和公寓。与此同时，这段时间以来，汽油价格已经飙升了50%，运费、食品、新车、二手车的价格都出现了大幅上涨。工人们要求提高工资，甚至不惜辞职以达目的。美联储对抗通胀最直接的方式就是提高利率。市场目前预计美联储可能会在秋季开始加息进程，2022年全年有望加息2-3次。因为加息预期，周一美国债券收益率走高，基准十年期美债的收益率触及1.628%，为3月31日触及1.746%的峰值以来的最高水平。那么，加息真的就是“末日来临”吗？不见得，不过，投资者仍然需要谨慎管理加息带来的风险，美联储在2003年开始加息时，虽然没有立刻拖累市场，但是在随后的三四年后，开始对市场产生影响，并且一定程度上导致了2008-2009年的金融危机。2、利率上升背景下，股票估值偏高在标普500指数的成分股中，2021年全年有434只股票收盘上涨，其中，标普的96只个股的年涨幅超过50%，而道指的30只成分股中就有23只个股上涨，纳斯达克100指数中也有74家成分股公司的股价上涨。个股方面，2021年，疫苗制造商Moderna Inc和网络安全软件和硬件提供商飞塔信息公司涨幅均超过100%；此外，苹果在2021年上涨了34%，英伟达公司股价大涨125%。但是，需要注意的是，很多小型公司的回报率不及大盘股。而且，随着2021年结束，创出新高的股票数量远远落后于创出新低的股票数量。也就是说，眼下的风险是，如果利率上升得太快（假设是+5%），股票就会做出糟糕的反应，这是1987年股市暴跌时发生的情况，也是2008-2009年金融危机的主要原因。3、持续的通胀压力通货膨胀的威胁没有消失，而且它将给股市带来压力。通胀的一个因素当然是疫情，这场严重的全球公共卫生危机严重扰乱了全球贸易体系，直接导致了供应链危机；另一个因素是，人们在疫情期间纷纷辞职，迫使雇主不得不提高工资继续招聘；还有一个催化剂是来自原油，OPEC+削减了石油供应，直接导致2021年美国汽油零售价格上涨近50%。4、疫情挥之不去还记得去年春天，全球范围内出现了短暂的缓解，病例数量开始减少。然而，当Delta和Omicron出现时，这个情况又改变了。Omicron于11月下旬出现，传播极快，以至于重新开放的各大娱乐场所都不得不关闭，餐馆的生意也突然下滑。休闲连锁餐厅Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc在去年一季度股价翻了一番，公司信心满满地告诉人们，疫情最糟糕的时期已经过去了。然而，公司股价在三季度和四季度分别下跌了30%和28%，因为疫情卷土重来，顾客们再次对餐厅就餐变得谨慎起来。5、美国中期选举的不确定性、气候变化等风险很多人担心，美国的中期选举会引发像2021年1月6日国会暴乱那样的暴力事件。随着不确定性不断增加，可能会降低全球投资者对美国公司的信心。另外，气候变化也是投资者需要关注的重要议题，过去一年，风暴、野火、恶劣天气等气候事件不断发生，然而，国际社会仍然未对这一问题达成共识，这是一个令人不安的理由。总 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