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价值投资践行者小邦

价值投资践行者小邦

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价值投资践行者小邦

2021-11-16

厉害

市场综述：一则传闻引爆游戏股！布局还是撤退？

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-06-12

上班开细看阿贾克斯队了睡觉时间

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-06-06

光伏守身如玉看空间都要有好感

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-06-05

水上警察监护室看得开

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-06-01

社会慈善了那些几十块

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-26

只许州官放火，不许百姓点灯$RLX科技(RLX)$

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-23

727316个黄金时间你是尽心尽力下来

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-20

炎热需拜金女地方法规

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-19

关于光棍节女工和环境

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-14

3⃣️宿舍姐姐上班

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-11

都是嗯呢不是手机铃声

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-09

是商业伙伴你的角度看

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-05-08

肆无忌惮你都开始来

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-04-23

十四大精神计算机考试

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-04-17

电饭锅好大喜功过

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-04-14

那就是饿坏了可点击进去

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-04-09

从z好恒心生离死别能解决

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-04-08

房间看看衣服都吃不

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-04-07

词根结果翻出来看看

价值投资践行者小邦

2021-04-05

出生地巴西分毫不差吧

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300315\">掌趣科技</a>涨幅近3%。</p>\n<p><b>马斯克又卖9.3亿美元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票，总计已套现72亿</b></p>\n<p>根据美国SEC收到的新文件，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克周一又出售了价值约9.31亿美元的特斯拉股票，使他过去一周出售的股票总额达到逾72亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股三大指数震荡走高，恒指涨1.27%报25713点，国指涨1.54%报9225点，恒生科技指数涨1.68%报6712点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae8f9852e128a809c8f81aedf65e4fd5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，大型科技股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>、腾讯均涨超2%；濠赌股、香港零售股、餐饮股全天表现强势，昨日大跌的内房股、物管股反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06049\">保利物业</a>劲升超19%领衔上扬；医美股、家电股、海运股、药品股、手游股、汽车股普涨。</p>\n<p>另一方面，近日强势的烟草概念股回调，电力股、半导体股、建材水泥股全天表现弱势。今日大市成交额为1310亿港元，南下资金净流出0.37亿港元。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>沪深三大指数上午红盘震荡，午后快速下跌翻绿，沪指全天收跌0.33%报3521点，深成指跌0.15%报14613点，创业板指跌0.24%报3393点。两市1230股上涨，3200股下跌，成交额连续18个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入42亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1dddda32d0fdd23c951d196c2ed447\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>行业板块多数下跌，航空航天板块重挫拖累军工概念，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600893\">航发动力</a>跌5%；磷化工、氟化工再度重挫，昨日大跌的锂电池、新能源车、光伏继续走弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>再度大跌约9%；有色、钢铁、半导体板块跌幅靠前。消费股强劲，白酒股领涨两市，古井贡酒等多股涨停；CRO、生物疫苗、免疫治疗、新冠检测等概念大涨靠前。</p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货微幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.04%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.1%；标普500指数期货涨0.03%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369135995f59f27e1e47c0f7b3397e64\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数多数走高，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.16%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨0.08%，法国CAC40指数涨0.36%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78b4bd4e2e14f34e4f66076594a69742\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货小幅走高，截止发稿，WTI原油报81.45美元/桶，涨0.7%；布油现报82.81美元/桶，涨0.93%。</p>\n<p>美原油小幅上涨，在经历了连续下跌之后，油价连续第二天走势积极，OPEC成员国周一表示OPEC+将继续谨慎提高产量，与此同时美国石油产量增长面临供应链障碍的威胁，但专家指出油价不可能突破100美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b560e26b55684b9716b25337c38b7696\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a230faeeae5db9494c02cafe6f102f2\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货微幅走高，日内涨0.04%，报1867.3美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>金价从11月初反弹以来的单边涨势暂时降温，超买信号已经显现，但不排除行情回调后再上涨的可能。如果继续追涨有较大风险，建议投资者等待回调后再择机入场做多。日内操作建议多观望，零售销售数据出炉后顺势操作。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c35050836a3985c42e618f5622bbc2\" tg-width=\"889\" 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class=\"title\">\n市场综述：一则传闻引爆游戏股！布局还是撤退？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-16 16:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>要闻</b></p>\n<p><b>习近平同美国总统拜登举行视频会晤</b></p>\n<p>国家主席习近平11月16日上午同美国总统拜登举行视频会晤。双方就事关中美关系发展的战略性、全局性、根本性问题以及共同关心的重要问题进行了充分、深入的沟通和交流。</p>\n<p><b>游戏版号或将在近期恢复审批，本月公布新一批版号名单</b></p>\n<p>多位游戏公司内部人士表示，游戏版号获或将在近期恢复审批，可能在本月就会公布新一批版号名单。自国家新闻出版署官网7月22日公布了7月国产网络游戏出版审批名单后，至今没有公布新一批版号审批名单。8月至10月的网游版号，已连续3个月不见踪影。受此消息影响，港股、A股游戏股大涨，港股方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02400\">心动公司</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>涨超2%；A股方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300494\">盛天网络</a>“20cm”涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300113\">顺网科技</a>涨逾10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002624\">完美世界</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300315\">掌趣科技</a>涨幅近3%。</p>\n<p><b>马斯克又卖9.3亿美元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票，总计已套现72亿</b></p>\n<p>根据美国SEC收到的新文件，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克周一又出售了价值约9.31亿美元的特斯拉股票，使他过去一周出售的股票总额达到逾72亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股三大指数震荡走高，恒指涨1.27%报25713点，国指涨1.54%报9225点，恒生科技指数涨1.68%报6712点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae8f9852e128a809c8f81aedf65e4fd5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，大型科技股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>、腾讯均涨超2%；濠赌股、香港零售股、餐饮股全天表现强势，昨日大跌的内房股、物管股反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06049\">保利物业</a>劲升超19%领衔上扬；医美股、家电股、海运股、药品股、手游股、汽车股普涨。</p>\n<p>另一方面，近日强势的烟草概念股回调，电力股、半导体股、建材水泥股全天表现弱势。今日大市成交额为1310亿港元，南下资金净流出0.37亿港元。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>沪深三大指数上午红盘震荡，午后快速下跌翻绿，沪指全天收跌0.33%报3521点，深成指跌0.15%报14613点，创业板指跌0.24%报3393点。两市1230股上涨，3200股下跌，成交额连续18个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入42亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1dddda32d0fdd23c951d196c2ed447\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>行业板块多数下跌，航空航天板块重挫拖累军工概念，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600893\">航发动力</a>跌5%；磷化工、氟化工再度重挫，昨日大跌的锂电池、新能源车、光伏继续走弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>再度大跌约9%；有色、钢铁、半导体板块跌幅靠前。消费股强劲，白酒股领涨两市，古井贡酒等多股涨停；CRO、生物疫苗、免疫治疗、新冠检测等概念大涨靠前。</p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货微幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.04%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.1%；标普500指数期货涨0.03%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369135995f59f27e1e47c0f7b3397e64\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数多数走高，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.16%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨0.08%，法国CAC40指数涨0.36%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78b4bd4e2e14f34e4f66076594a69742\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货小幅走高，截止发稿，WTI原油报81.45美元/桶，涨0.7%；布油现报82.81美元/桶，涨0.93%。</p>\n<p>美原油小幅上涨，在经历了连续下跌之后，油价连续第二天走势积极，OPEC成员国周一表示OPEC+将继续谨慎提高产量，与此同时美国石油产量增长面临供应链障碍的威胁，但专家指出油价不可能突破100美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b560e26b55684b9716b25337c38b7696\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a230faeeae5db9494c02cafe6f102f2\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货微幅走高，日内涨0.04%，报1867.3美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>金价从11月初反弹以来的单边涨势暂时降温，超买信号已经显现，但不排除行情回调后再上涨的可能。如果继续追涨有较大风险，建议投资者等待回调后再择机入场做多。日内操作建议多观望，零售销售数据出炉后顺势操作。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c35050836a3985c42e618f5622bbc2\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01945\">$清科创业(01945)$</a>等退市","text":"$清科创业(01945)$等退市","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04ce30a1993b110abc83a5a5caefff3","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337183117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330407116,"gmtCreate":1608655308835,"gmtModify":1703736060045,"author":{"id":"3565137186867121","authorId":"3565137186867121","name":"价值投资践行者小邦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac4876e3af97079c9363e28974df6ff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛逼","listText":"牛逼","text":"牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330407116","repostId":"1121109465","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121109465","pubTimestamp":1608638935,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121109465?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-22 20:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"当心！2021年可能飞出这11大“黑天鹅”！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121109465","media":"汇通网","summary":"2020年，终于要到尾声，这一年突发的疫情，对经济的冲击是极其严重的，同时，叠加市场一些意外的风险事件，比如；美国总统特朗普败选，日本首相安倍晋三意外辞职，国际贸易局势严峻等一系列风险事件，都对金融市","content":"<p>2020年，终于要到尾声，这一年突发的疫情，对经济的冲击是极其严重的，同时，叠加市场一些意外的风险事件，比如；美国总统特朗普败选，日本首相安倍晋三意外辞职，国际贸易局势严峻等一系列风险事件，都对金融市场产生一定程度的影响。而在即将到来的2021年，市场是希望与担忧并存，希望疫苗能快速研发，快速接种，经济复苏，但也担忧将可能发生一些不可预测的风险事件，就一些可能的意外事件提前预测。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ff47247c5d8b6f00ad2b392f61934dd\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><b>科技改变办公模式，持续性的远程办公限制工资上涨</b></p>\n<p>2020年，网购、远程会议、远程办公和远程学习等科技改变了事情期间的办公模式和生活方式。到了2021年，这些变化将在多大程度上持续或者迅速恢复到疫情之前，将会逐渐明晰。那些受益于疫情封锁的部分公司，将面对新的挑战。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>表示：“随着越来越多的企业将其员工迁出昂贵的城市，并相应地调整工资，我们想知道，全球劳动力套利是否会出现在中上层阶级身上：即富人和远程办公的工作者不断储蓄财富，减少消费(每增加收入1美元，仅支出0.52美元)，而低收入的服务业工作者却只能不断支出(即每增加收入1美元，但需支出1.30美元)，而几乎无法得到任何储蓄。”</p>\n<p><b>对僵尸企业的救助限制生产率和GDP增长</b></p>\n<p>在2020年，21万亿美元的全球经济刺激计划已经被证明了是必要的，但这也引发了一个问题：市场上所谓的坏公司也和好公司一样得到了政府的救助。这最终引发的风险不是戏剧性的债务危机，而是对生产率的长期拖累。</p>\n<p>目前约16%的经合组织(OECD)企业已经成为了“僵尸企业”(即即使在反弹时期，这些企业的营收也只能用于弥补负债，而没有足够的资金能用于资本支出)，而能改变这些企业的现状的唯一办法就是增加总需求。</p>\n<p><b>疫苗之争：从艰难研发转到分发问题</b></p>\n<p>随着第一批疫苗的大量供应，全世界的关注重点将从艰难研发到疫苗分发问题上。国家内部与国与国之间，谁先接种疫苗，以及何时接种，疫苗定价等问题将极大地影响全球资本市场情绪。另一个巨大的不确定因素是，最终会有多少人接种疫苗。</p>\n<p><b>美国民主党赢得佐治亚州席位从而获得参议院控制权</b></p>\n<p>2021年1月5日，民主党参议员候选人乔恩·奥索夫(Jon&nbsp;Ossoff)和拉斐尔·沃诺克(Raphael&nbsp;Warnock)将和现任共和党参议员凯利·莱弗勒(Kelly&nbsp;Loeffler)和戴维·珀杜(David&nbsp;Perdue)争夺佐治亚州参议员席位。</p>\n<p>到目前为止，共和党在参议院拥有50-48的多数席位。这意味着佐治亚州的最后两个参议员席位的竞选结果将决定参议院控制权的归属。如果民主党候选人能够赢得这剩下的两个席位，参议院两党席位将变为50-50的局面。根据美国法律，届时将由获选美国新任副总统哈里斯担任参议院议长，从而为民主党赢得参议院控制权，民主党将启动加税和技术行业监管改革的立法议程，这将导致科技股大幅下挫，国债发行隐忧推动收益率大幅飙升。</p>\n<p><b>两党联合的产业政策繁荣</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>虽然预计，未来美国两党出现僵局的情况和最终定下紧缩政策的可能性较大，但仍然希望两党能达成和解。因为该行认为，美国目前迫切需要重建其传统基础设施，改善数字基础设施，并支持增长型产业的发展。</p>\n<p>而对于建设资金方面，定价高于美国国债且仅向美国公民发行的建设美国债券也明显具备更大的吸引力。</p>\n<p><b>新兴市场债务违约和主权评级下调</b></p>\n<p>公司债违约慢慢出现，随后波及到国有实体，进而导致大面积评级下调。这将导致新兴市场股市在二季度前下跌30%，并创出2013年以来最差年度表现。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲财政刺激希望破灭</b></p>\n<p>在零利率及资产负债表规模与GDP比例逼近100%水平的情况下，欧洲央行支持经济复苏的能力日益受到削弱，或令欧元兑美元汇率在2021年年中前跌至1.06。</p>\n<p><b>美国财政部放弃强势美元政策</b></p>\n<p>如果美国国会不能就财政刺激计划达成一致，新任财长耶伦或将通过压低美元汇率来缓解金融状况，从而导致美元暴跌15%。</p>\n<p><b>货币和财政刺激推动百年来最强劲复苏，OPEC分裂</b></p>\n<p>为填补财政漏洞，原油出口国放弃供应配额，致使OPEC合作瓦解，从而导致油价再次跌回每桶20美元。货币和财政刺激推动百年来最强劲复苏，迫切期望从实物资产中获利的投资者和交易员将越来越多的资金投向诸如铜这样的大宗市场，从而引发铜价飙升50%。</p>\n<p><b>美国总统拜登辞职</b></p>\n<p>因不能弥合两党分歧，且面临越来越大的抗议和社会动荡压力，拜登辞去总统之职，由副总统哈里斯接任。这将导致美股大幅回调，信贷利差扩大，美元加速贬值。</p>\n<p><b>疫情影响下，世界或依然不自由</b></p>\n<p>预计旅游业将继续萎缩并且改变形态，国内旅游居多。航空公司、连锁酒店和飞机制造商的困境依旧难以解除。一些对留学生依赖较大的大学也将面临经营困境，文化交流更是将继续受到影响。</p>","source":"HTW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当心！2021年可能飞出这11大“黑天鹅”！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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href=https://news.fx678.com/202012192241192461.shtml><strong>汇通网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年，终于要到尾声，这一年突发的疫情，对经济的冲击是极其严重的，同时，叠加市场一些意外的风险事件，比如；美国总统特朗普败选，日本首相安倍晋三意外辞职，国际贸易局势严峻等一系列风险事件，都对金融市场产生一定程度的影响。而在即将到来的2021年，市场是希望与担忧并存，希望疫苗能快速研发，快速接种，经济复苏，但也担忧将可能发生一些不可预测的风险事件，就一些可能的意外事件提前预测。\n\n科技改变办公...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.fx678.com/202012192241192461.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://news.fx678.com/202012192241192461.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121109465","content_text":"2020年，终于要到尾声，这一年突发的疫情，对经济的冲击是极其严重的，同时，叠加市场一些意外的风险事件，比如；美国总统特朗普败选，日本首相安倍晋三意外辞职，国际贸易局势严峻等一系列风险事件，都对金融市场产生一定程度的影响。而在即将到来的2021年，市场是希望与担忧并存，希望疫苗能快速研发，快速接种，经济复苏，但也担忧将可能发生一些不可预测的风险事件，就一些可能的意外事件提前预测。\n\n科技改变办公模式，持续性的远程办公限制工资上涨\n2020年，网购、远程会议、远程办公和远程学习等科技改变了事情期间的办公模式和生活方式。到了2021年，这些变化将在多大程度上持续或者迅速恢复到疫情之前，将会逐渐明晰。那些受益于疫情封锁的部分公司，将面对新的挑战。\n美国银行表示：“随着越来越多的企业将其员工迁出昂贵的城市，并相应地调整工资，我们想知道，全球劳动力套利是否会出现在中上层阶级身上：即富人和远程办公的工作者不断储蓄财富，减少消费(每增加收入1美元，仅支出0.52美元)，而低收入的服务业工作者却只能不断支出(即每增加收入1美元，但需支出1.30美元)，而几乎无法得到任何储蓄。”\n对僵尸企业的救助限制生产率和GDP增长\n在2020年，21万亿美元的全球经济刺激计划已经被证明了是必要的，但这也引发了一个问题：市场上所谓的坏公司也和好公司一样得到了政府的救助。这最终引发的风险不是戏剧性的债务危机，而是对生产率的长期拖累。\n目前约16%的经合组织(OECD)企业已经成为了“僵尸企业”(即即使在反弹时期，这些企业的营收也只能用于弥补负债，而没有足够的资金能用于资本支出)，而能改变这些企业的现状的唯一办法就是增加总需求。\n疫苗之争：从艰难研发转到分发问题\n随着第一批疫苗的大量供应，全世界的关注重点将从艰难研发到疫苗分发问题上。国家内部与国与国之间，谁先接种疫苗，以及何时接种，疫苗定价等问题将极大地影响全球资本市场情绪。另一个巨大的不确定因素是，最终会有多少人接种疫苗。\n美国民主党赢得佐治亚州席位从而获得参议院控制权\n2021年1月5日，民主党参议员候选人乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)和拉斐尔·沃诺克(Raphael Warnock)将和现任共和党参议员凯利·莱弗勒(Kelly Loeffler)和戴维·珀杜(David Perdue)争夺佐治亚州参议员席位。\n到目前为止，共和党在参议院拥有50-48的多数席位。这意味着佐治亚州的最后两个参议员席位的竞选结果将决定参议院控制权的归属。如果民主党候选人能够赢得这剩下的两个席位，参议院两党席位将变为50-50的局面。根据美国法律，届时将由获选美国新任副总统哈里斯担任参议院议长，从而为民主党赢得参议院控制权，民主党将启动加税和技术行业监管改革的立法议程，这将导致科技股大幅下挫，国债发行隐忧推动收益率大幅飙升。\n两党联合的产业政策繁荣\n美国银行虽然预计，未来美国两党出现僵局的情况和最终定下紧缩政策的可能性较大，但仍然希望两党能达成和解。因为该行认为，美国目前迫切需要重建其传统基础设施，改善数字基础设施，并支持增长型产业的发展。\n而对于建设资金方面，定价高于美国国债且仅向美国公民发行的建设美国债券也明显具备更大的吸引力。\n新兴市场债务违约和主权评级下调\n公司债违约慢慢出现，随后波及到国有实体，进而导致大面积评级下调。这将导致新兴市场股市在二季度前下跌30%，并创出2013年以来最差年度表现。\n欧洲财政刺激希望破灭\n在零利率及资产负债表规模与GDP比例逼近100%水平的情况下，欧洲央行支持经济复苏的能力日益受到削弱，或令欧元兑美元汇率在2021年年中前跌至1.06。\n美国财政部放弃强势美元政策\n如果美国国会不能就财政刺激计划达成一致，新任财长耶伦或将通过压低美元汇率来缓解金融状况，从而导致美元暴跌15%。\n货币和财政刺激推动百年来最强劲复苏，OPEC分裂\n为填补财政漏洞，原油出口国放弃供应配额，致使OPEC合作瓦解，从而导致油价再次跌回每桶20美元。货币和财政刺激推动百年来最强劲复苏，迫切期望从实物资产中获利的投资者和交易员将越来越多的资金投向诸如铜这样的大宗市场，从而引发铜价飙升50%。\n美国总统拜登辞职\n因不能弥合两党分歧，且面临越来越大的抗议和社会动荡压力，拜登辞去总统之职，由副总统哈里斯接任。这将导致美股大幅回调，信贷利差扩大，美元加速贬值。\n疫情影响下，世界或依然不自由\n预计旅游业将继续萎缩并且改变形态，国内旅游居多。航空公司、连锁酒店和飞机制造商的困境依旧难以解除。一些对留学生依赖较大的大学也将面临经营困境，文化交流更是将继续受到影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382156256,"gmtCreate":1613394414375,"gmtModify":1613394414375,"author":{"id":"3565137186867121","authorId":"3565137186867121","name":"价值投资践行者小邦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac4876e3af97079c9363e28974df6ff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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