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Huan娱
只投资朝阳行业的好公司,并长期持有
IP属地:上海
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Huan娱
2022-01-28
$蔚来(NIO)$
最后All in的机会😁 拿到年底 吃大肉👍别怪我没提醒各位
Huan娱
2021-05-12
一百多年前,汽车刚被鼓捣出来时,马车行业的利益团体操纵议会通过了歧视汽车的法令,要求汽车和马车会车时,汽车停车为马车让路,如果马车夫有要求,汽车司机还要使发动机熄火,以便让马儿安静地通过。#特斯拉 #蔚来 #理想 #小鹏
Huan娱
2021-10-21
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
短期1000-1200;长期3000&拆股
Huan娱
2021-04-13
$蔚来(NIO)$
适当建仓!五月开始回暖,下半年起飞🛫️目标90刀
Huan娱
2021-03-10
$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 没什么好说的,既然看好的企业,为什么会有人割肉??持有不就完事了嘛,拿三年还怕不赚钱吗?北上广做三年打工人才赚多少😂
Huan娱
2021-06-29
$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$
正式合并后,咱这手上的票子直接变成新的票子吗?还是咋整?
Huan娱
2021-08-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
九月十月,坐800、看900👀
Huan娱
2021-07-07
$滴滴(DIDI)$
8块!8块!
Huan娱
2021-03-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
票子洗洗会更健康。让子弹飞一会儿。建仓时时刻刻,拿住了。三年后看结果
Huan娱
2021-11-23
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
现在不入?更待何时😁
Huan娱
2021-08-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来有绝对的护城河。不容小视。
Huan娱
2021-04-08
$理想汽车(LI)$
理想汽车将投资一家飞行汽车公司,短期的涨跌不要太在意,并不会影响公司本身的发展。适当建仓、长期持有👍让子弹飞一会儿
Huan娱
2021-03-12
$理想汽车(LI)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 自古以来散户几乎很难赚到钱,其中一个重要原因就是“随着市场波动频繁操作”。历史滚滚车流向前,一切都在进步看不到吗?【好公司,拿住】做时间的朋友👬
Huan娱
2021-03-01
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
看1000
Huan娱
2021-03-12
$蔚来(NIO)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 自古以来散户几乎很难赚到钱,其中一个重要原因就是“随着市场波动频繁操作”。历史滚滚车流向前,一切都在进步看不到吗?【好公司,拿住】做时间的朋友👬
Huan娱
2021-03-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 好公司买就对了。股票总有涨和跌,但投资不谈短期上下。如果连拿到年底的耐心都没有,活该赚不到钱。
Huan娱
2021-06-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
长期还是看2000刀💪养精蓄锐、蓄势待发⬆️这样的企业 一万亿美元的市值,一点都不过分。
Huan娱
2021-03-23
$理想汽车(LI)$
这不知道担心什么?你买过理想的车吗?你买过三十万以上的车么?愿意花三十大几上路一台One的车主你认识吗?是一群什么样的人呢?大概率不是第一台车吧、大概率智商不低吧、大概率比你成功吧。这群人有自己的独立思考和判断能力吧?!🤔听一下这群人的口碑吧,一个车型就买这么多 本身就是实力吧?结论就是:拿着票子 让子弹飞一会儿
Huan娱
2021-03-04
$蔚来(NIO)$
可以跑步入场了 基本面在,长期持有
Huan娱
2021-11-30
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
一直没搞懂,不是停牌了吗?这支到底是什么来头?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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。赚钱了已经","listText":"开什么玩笑 人家平均成本90左右 。赚钱了已经","text":"开什么玩笑 人家平均成本90左右 。赚钱了已经","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613689859","repostId":"1171226600","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171226600","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649778100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171226600?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-12 23:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大手笔减持阿里背后,芒格有何隐情?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171226600","media":"资事堂","summary":"芒格此番减持,意欲何为?他究竟在这个月里嗅到了什么?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作为巴菲特的挚友,伯克希尔哈萨韦的副董事长,查理·芒格在中国有大量的投资者粉丝。</p><p>但这位98岁老人近期的一个做法却让人大感意外。</p><p>据美国证券交易委员会披露的信息,芒格长期担任董事长的每日期刊公司(Daily Journal)日前的最新美股持仓组合中,阿里巴巴的持仓大幅减少了一半。</p><p>但此前的2月份,这家公司的年会上,查理芒格刚刚“夸赞”了一把阿里巴巴。他说阿里巴巴是“合适”的投资标的,投资这个公司让他感到“舒适”。</p><p>但一个月后的最新公告显示,芒格又减持了阿里巴巴的美股,而且直接砍仓一半。</p><p>芒格此番减持,意欲何为?他究竟在这个月里嗅到了什么?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>“不贪多”的芒格</b></p><p>巴菲特曾有个著名的论断,人一生只需要20个优秀上市公司就足以了。</p><p>芒格还要极致,他持有的股票数量通常在5个上下。</p><p>在他担任董事长的每日期刊公司近年的投资组合中,通常只有很少数量的公司,而阿里巴巴就在其中。</p><p>2021年末的公告显示,每日期刊公司持有2.126亿美元的美股(相关法规只要求披露美股持仓)。</p><p>这五家公司是,美洲银行(9480.6万美元)、富国银行(7713.9万美元)、阿里巴巴(3264万美元)、美国合众银行(744.1万美元)、浦项制铁(57.7万美元)。</p><p>此外,每日期刊公司还有自己稳定发展的主业,提供各种广告信息服务,并提供法律相关的案件管理软件系统服务。</p><p>这样屈指数来,芒格近年看上的生意不过六桩。</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>让人舒适的“生意”?</b></p><p>芒格是怎么看待阿里巴巴这桩生意,可以从他在公开场合的一些发言中看出。</p><p>在今年2月举行的每日期刊公司年度股东大会上,他曾表示:</p><p>“我觉得阿里巴巴是一个合理的投资,至少目前来看,买入阿里巴巴股票并没有看起来风险那么巨大。”</p><p>他还在该次大会上表示,阿里巴巴竞争力很强,即便在竞争激烈的零售领域也有极佳竞争力。“<b>投资阿里巴巴是让我感到舒适的投资决策。</b>”</p><p>他还为阿里股价的下跌做解释:持有有价证券就会面临风险,可能是亏钱,也可能是股价下降。<b>我们会有一些措施去规避损失,对一些小幅的回撤并不介意。</b></p><p>但资事堂梳理的相关公告却显示,2021年一季度起逐季增仓阿里巴巴(美股ADS)的每日期刊公司,在最新的一季度摸出现减持。</p><p>减持规模达到30.21万股,相比去年末砍仓一半。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa61cf5ff0517151662321821ac6060\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而同期,阿里巴巴在美股和港股的成交价,都一度创下了近几年的新低(见下图)。</p><p><b>所以,无论是言行不一致,还是低位砍仓,这似乎都大大不同于投资大众心目中的查理芒格的形象。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d86446d99222807309114e9aa52dce21\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这究竟发生了什么?</p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>3月末辞去董事长</b></p><p>撇开阿里巴巴期间发生了什么情况,每日期刊公司在2022年一季度发生了一件大事。</p><p>就是芒格退休了。</p><p>3月28日,在每日期刊公司提交的一份给当地监管部门的文件中显示,查理·芒格已决定在该公司工作45年后,将卸任董事长一职。</p><p>此前在该公司今年2月的年会上,查理·芒格就透露过 “接任的计划未来不久就会执行”。</p><p>果然短短一个多月后,芒格正式卸任董事长。</p><p>芒格卸任这个事项,<b>给每日期刊公司减持阿里带来了一种解释的可能,即此次操作已不再由芒格主导:</b></p><p>他或许依然看好某家公司,但98岁的他可能已不再做主。</p><p>这个事情同样发生在巴菲特的公司里,过去几年,伯克希尔连续操作了多次科技股和航空股投资,其风格和手法和巴菲特早年的风格有了不小的差异。</p><p>业内多次揣测,巴菲特可能早已分仓给其他基金经理管理资产。甚至,他已逐步退出一线的决策,而只是把关。毕竟巴菲特也已91周岁高龄。</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>几个可能的原因</b></p><p>还有几种可能:</p><p>其一、芒格可能确实不看好这家公司,在今年2~3月份的某些时刻,他发现了一些他不能容忍的迹象,导致他不得不在低位斩仓。</p><p>其二、<b>还有可能是另存隐情——比如转换阿里巴巴至港股市场。</b></p><p>阿里巴巴同时也在香港市场挂牌交易,价格和美股表现相当接近。而芒格选择了转换部分持仓到港股市场。</p><p>这类操作在资管界早有先例。</p><p>2020年8月,新加坡主权基金淡马锡、英国百年资管巨头柏基投资(Baillie Gifford)将持有的阿里巴巴美国存托凭证转换为港股,转换量分别占其头寸的50%和20%。</p><p>其三、<b>持有人推动变化:</b></p><p>由于芒格的巨大威望,所以外界几乎忽略每日期刊公司的其他股东。</p><p>但其实,很早以前,就有不少大鳄级别的金融机构投资每日期刊公司。</p><p>根据该公司去年末的披露,有两家大型买方机构是每日期刊公司的大股东,包括Roseman Wagner Wealth Management、资管巨头贝莱德。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/399e368561496d45f24ad567b9fc9ab3\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>随着芒格的卸任,部分股东也可能推动投资组合和风格的调整。</p><p>总体上说,本次减持阿里巴巴,并不能推断芒格就出现了“出尔反尔”,相反在更多的信息出现前,各种可能的原因都存在。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568174316590","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大手笔减持阿里背后,芒格有何隐情?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大手笔减持阿里背后,芒格有何隐情?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-12 23:41 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R_8W7bRACU4XW7ukjiq-dQ><strong>资事堂</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作为巴菲特的挚友,伯克希尔哈萨韦的副董事长,查理·芒格在中国有大量的投资者粉丝。但这位98岁老人近期的一个做法却让人大感意外。据美国证券交易委员会披露的信息,芒格长期担任董事长的每日期刊公司(Daily Journal)日前的最新美股持仓组合中,阿里巴巴的持仓大幅减少了一半。但此前的2月份,这家公司的年会上,查理芒格刚刚“夸赞”了一把阿里巴巴。他说阿里巴巴是“合适”的投资标的,投资这个公司让他感到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R_8W7bRACU4XW7ukjiq-dQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R_8W7bRACU4XW7ukjiq-dQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171226600","content_text":"作为巴菲特的挚友,伯克希尔哈萨韦的副董事长,查理·芒格在中国有大量的投资者粉丝。但这位98岁老人近期的一个做法却让人大感意外。据美国证券交易委员会披露的信息,芒格长期担任董事长的每日期刊公司(Daily Journal)日前的最新美股持仓组合中,阿里巴巴的持仓大幅减少了一半。但此前的2月份,这家公司的年会上,查理芒格刚刚“夸赞”了一把阿里巴巴。他说阿里巴巴是“合适”的投资标的,投资这个公司让他感到“舒适”。但一个月后的最新公告显示,芒格又减持了阿里巴巴的美股,而且直接砍仓一半。芒格此番减持,意欲何为?他究竟在这个月里嗅到了什么?01“不贪多”的芒格巴菲特曾有个著名的论断,人一生只需要20个优秀上市公司就足以了。芒格还要极致,他持有的股票数量通常在5个上下。在他担任董事长的每日期刊公司近年的投资组合中,通常只有很少数量的公司,而阿里巴巴就在其中。2021年末的公告显示,每日期刊公司持有2.126亿美元的美股(相关法规只要求披露美股持仓)。这五家公司是,美洲银行(9480.6万美元)、富国银行(7713.9万美元)、阿里巴巴(3264万美元)、美国合众银行(744.1万美元)、浦项制铁(57.7万美元)。此外,每日期刊公司还有自己稳定发展的主业,提供各种广告信息服务,并提供法律相关的案件管理软件系统服务。这样屈指数来,芒格近年看上的生意不过六桩。02让人舒适的“生意”?芒格是怎么看待阿里巴巴这桩生意,可以从他在公开场合的一些发言中看出。在今年2月举行的每日期刊公司年度股东大会上,他曾表示:“我觉得阿里巴巴是一个合理的投资,至少目前来看,买入阿里巴巴股票并没有看起来风险那么巨大。”他还在该次大会上表示,阿里巴巴竞争力很强,即便在竞争激烈的零售领域也有极佳竞争力。“投资阿里巴巴是让我感到舒适的投资决策。”他还为阿里股价的下跌做解释:持有有价证券就会面临风险,可能是亏钱,也可能是股价下降。我们会有一些措施去规避损失,对一些小幅的回撤并不介意。但资事堂梳理的相关公告却显示,2021年一季度起逐季增仓阿里巴巴(美股ADS)的每日期刊公司,在最新的一季度摸出现减持。减持规模达到30.21万股,相比去年末砍仓一半。而同期,阿里巴巴在美股和港股的成交价,都一度创下了近几年的新低(见下图)。所以,无论是言行不一致,还是低位砍仓,这似乎都大大不同于投资大众心目中的查理芒格的形象。这究竟发生了什么?033月末辞去董事长撇开阿里巴巴期间发生了什么情况,每日期刊公司在2022年一季度发生了一件大事。就是芒格退休了。3月28日,在每日期刊公司提交的一份给当地监管部门的文件中显示,查理·芒格已决定在该公司工作45年后,将卸任董事长一职。此前在该公司今年2月的年会上,查理·芒格就透露过 “接任的计划未来不久就会执行”。果然短短一个多月后,芒格正式卸任董事长。芒格卸任这个事项,给每日期刊公司减持阿里带来了一种解释的可能,即此次操作已不再由芒格主导:他或许依然看好某家公司,但98岁的他可能已不再做主。这个事情同样发生在巴菲特的公司里,过去几年,伯克希尔连续操作了多次科技股和航空股投资,其风格和手法和巴菲特早年的风格有了不小的差异。业内多次揣测,巴菲特可能早已分仓给其他基金经理管理资产。甚至,他已逐步退出一线的决策,而只是把关。毕竟巴菲特也已91周岁高龄。04几个可能的原因还有几种可能:其一、芒格可能确实不看好这家公司,在今年2~3月份的某些时刻,他发现了一些他不能容忍的迹象,导致他不得不在低位斩仓。其二、还有可能是另存隐情——比如转换阿里巴巴至港股市场。阿里巴巴同时也在香港市场挂牌交易,价格和美股表现相当接近。而芒格选择了转换部分持仓到港股市场。这类操作在资管界早有先例。2020年8月,新加坡主权基金淡马锡、英国百年资管巨头柏基投资(Baillie Gifford)将持有的阿里巴巴美国存托凭证转换为港股,转换量分别占其头寸的50%和20%。其三、持有人推动变化:由于芒格的巨大威望,所以外界几乎忽略每日期刊公司的其他股东。但其实,很早以前,就有不少大鳄级别的金融机构投资每日期刊公司。根据该公司去年末的披露,有两家大型买方机构是每日期刊公司的大股东,包括Roseman Wagner Wealth 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不会崩盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852648542","repostId":"1197756765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197756765","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635259786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197756765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-26 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"看空声音此起彼伏,但美股还将迎来大涨?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197756765","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"从市盈率来看,美股市场当前的价位已经来到了历史级的超高水平,让过去许多泡沫的顶点都相形见绌。正因为如此,近期以来,关于美股形成泡沫,必然破灭的风险的警告声也日益高涨起来。毋庸赘言,这巨大的风险已经形成了整个市场所面临的严峻挑战。再加上,所谓“错失恐惧症”依然广泛存在着,这一切很可能意味着,美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势,之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫,随时可能崩盘的时候,关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。再加上,所谓“错失恐惧症”(FOMO)依然广泛存在着,这一切很可能意味着,美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势,之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d576a74fead18a9d2ae6f1d2167557ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从市盈率来看,美股市场当前的价位已经来到了历史级的超高水平,让过去许多泡沫的顶点都相形见绌。正因为如此,近期以来,关于美股形成泡沫,必然破灭的风险的警告声也日益高涨起来。</p>\n<p>毋庸赘言,这巨大的风险已经形成了整个市场所面临的严峻挑战。只不过,这些警告虽然就大方向而言是正确的,但是投资者现在可能还没有到必须按照其行事的时机。这里最微妙的地方就在于,当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫,随时可能崩盘的时候,关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。</p>\n<p>再加上,所谓“错失恐惧症”(FOMO)依然广泛存在着,这一切很可能意味着,美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势,之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。</p>\n<p><b>缺失的关键指标</b></p>\n<p>极端化的债务,高保证金债务,高估值,再加上低收益率,这些成分几乎已经快要配全了一副崩盘的药方。很多个月以来,保证金债务的高企已经成为了越来越多市场观察家的心头之患。事实就是,保证金债务水平很久前就已经达到了历史性的高位,超过了之前若干周期的峰值。比如,早在去年11月,美股市场的保证金债务规模就已经可以和1999年与2008年相提并论了。可是,从那之后,保证金债务水平又猛增了30%。现在,保证金债务总额已经来到了9115亿美元。</p>\n<p>哪怕以相对于国内生产总值的比例来衡量,保证金债务水平现在也相当于美国全部经济体量的大约4%,较之2000年和2008年的高点高出一半左右。当然,许多牛派会强调,相对于标普500指数的总市值,则保证金债务的水平还算不上特别高。这个结论也许是正确的,麻烦在于,产生这个结论的逻辑本身是荒唐的——在泡沫时期当中,标普500指数的市值当然会自动上涨。更何况,保证金债务对市值的比率现在虽然不在历史最高点,但是至少已经和世纪之交的互联网泡沫时期大致相当了。</p>\n<p>总而言之,投资者采取相对倾向于看空的立场,无疑是有充分根据的。事实上,大家近期也在不断听到越来越多关于市值高企和行情过热的警告。问题在于,虽然这些警告都揭示了很多问题,但是现在,市场依然缺少一个泡沫必不可少的要件,即FOMO,或者说错失恐惧症。目前,美股市场上的牛派和熊派还大约是一比一,势均力敌。只不过,缺失的FOMO未来几个月乃至几个季度却可能最终到来。如果结合上述这些因素进行考虑,结论则是短期之内,市场可能上演一波可观的涨势。</p>\n<p><b>FOMO是重中之重</b></p>\n<p>如果市场上的几乎所有参与者都相信,随时都可能会发生崩盘,那么任何关于泡沫的论断就将变得无法成立。归根结底,泡沫的叙事当中,其要素正是贪婪、欣快症和乐观。至少目前,美股市场的情绪还没有走到那一步。比如说,目前看涨投资者在市场当中的占比还不到40%,与此同时,看空投资者的占比也有30%以上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f18a2c2f3de5e4cde36634c0c87b3c\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>与8月相比,可以发现市场情绪在9月间明显更加倾向于悲观——8月间,看空投资者的比例只有24%,而看涨投资者所占的比例却与9月大致相当。</p>\n<p>市场历史显示,当持悲观立场的投资者数量增加,往往都是买进机会出现的时候。因此,从情绪指标来看,这就意味着和几个月前相比,现在更适合买进美股。</p>\n<p>事实就是,那些真正的泡沫前夜,欣快症严重程度都达到了历史级的水平,比如在2000年,看涨投资者的占比超过了70%,几乎相当于目前的两倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81322622ce41711767320c0e2e965866\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>与此同时,货币市场基金资产规模的变化轨迹,也清楚地体现出了投资者的这种更倾向于消极,而非积极的立场。目前,货币市场基金的总规模大约是4.52万亿美元,只是略低于2020年疫情大崩盘后的水平而已。</p>\n<p>这一数据为何重要?答案是,货币市场基金的设定,是一种高度稳定,且富于流动性的投资。这些基金的投资对象主要包括现金和期限不足十二个月的债券等。虽然私营投资者也可以买卖货币市场基金,但是在这一领域当中,他们只是小玩家,整个市场主要是由机构投资者,比如银行、保险公司和政府等主导的。</p>\n<p>总而言之,货币市场基金的资产情况可以说明有多少现金正在作壁上观,能够在短期之内投入使用。此外,从这一数据当中,还可以清楚地窥见机构投资者,即所谓“聪明钱”依然在犹豫之中,不愿意全身心投入股票,因此才选择大量持有现金或者流动性资产。</p>\n<p><b>FOMO燃料充足</b></p>\n<p>因此,一方面看来,当下的美股市场依然缺乏欣快症,相反,许多投资者依然站在相对悲观的立场上。不然的话,也就无法解释大家会持有如此规模的短期流动性的一幕。此外,美股市场的投资者也必须密切关注债券市场。数据显示,这一市场上,投资者目前也在大举撤资。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1418f9fe77393323e54cef6fc51c0aa0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>抛售的原因,就是即将到来的加息。诚然,利率的上涨意味着即将到来的新债券将提供更高的票息,但是问题在于,那些已经发行的债券,其票息却不会再变化了。结果就是,大家纷纷售出债券,导致价格下跌。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>最近的全球基金经理人调查也发现,更多资产配置专家选择了减持债券,其减持力度达到了调查二十多年前开始以来所仅见的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29bbabe7f40c2e759b484ebad5dc892\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>总之,现在已经有大量资金在作壁上观了,但是在与此同时,资本还在从其他领域不断撤出。</p>\n<p>这些都意味着,这些资金未来有很大概率流入美股市场,最终在投资者当中触发全面的FOMO。在具体构成上,这一方面是来自于各大央行继续犹豫不决等待观望的态度,一方面也是股价越涨就会带动越多投资者参与的雪球效应使然。事实上,这一大趋势向回可以一直追溯到全球金融危机的时代。2009年以来,股票在投资者总资产当中的占比一直在稳步走高,现在已经达到了和2000年类似的高度。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee743cdb5a2d0e76cbbd3ef3025db76e\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在这样的大背景下,一种新的叙事已经兴起——TINA RIF,意思是,投资者除开股票之外别无选择,因此任何抵抗都是徒劳的。如果这样的叙事继续铺开,则短期乃至中期之内的猛烈涨势便被人为赋予了合理性。因为到了最后关头,所有人都会冲进舞池,希望在派对结束前狂舞一番。到那时,也就进入了属于FOMO的时期,后者自我滚起雪球,而股价上涨再上涨也就不可避免了。</p>\n<p><b>最后涨势或已开始</b></p>\n<p>最近几天的标普500指数表现已经开始传达出一种有趣的信息,即上行趋势正在变得越来越强势。从这个角度看,之前几周的下跌似乎已经形成了一种完美的空头陷阱。下一个阶段,这一切大概率会被最终确定为一场双底反转。站在图表分析师的立场上,这都是相对看涨的指标。因此,也许这一长期大牛市的最后一波涨势,现在已经宣告开始。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22df15f9b00a0ce1efd8a1214c5a36d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>虽然对于基本面研究者而言,说美股还有全盘大涨的潜力,这种判断缺失是难以接受的,但是事实就是事实,是不以人的意志为转移的。现在最显而易见的是,投资者缺失缺乏其他的选项,股票又是他们很容易获得的。更不必说,在牛派和熊派如此势均力敌的时候,就下定泡沫的结论显然是为时太早。</p>\n<p>不过,如果市场能够结束FOMO缺失的时期,股票价格就将在未来几个月当中大涨。显然,并不是所有人都愿意参加派对,而且大家都知道,当每一个派对参加者都在舞池当中没有明天一样地狂舞时,派对的结束也就开始了倒计时。总之,无论如何,现在肯定还不是做空美股市场的时候。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>看空声音此起彼伏,但美股还将迎来大涨?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n看空声音此起彼伏,但美股还将迎来大涨?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-26 22:49 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J9saJJmBcPkDnHzLbPwJkg><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫,随时可能崩盘的时候,关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。再加上,所谓“错失恐惧症”(FOMO)依然广泛存在着,这一切很可能意味着,美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势,之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。\n\n\n从市盈率来看,美股市场当前的价位已经来到了历史级的超高水平,让过去许多泡沫的顶点都相形见绌。正因为如此,近期以来,关于美股形成泡沫,必然破灭的风险的警告声...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J9saJJmBcPkDnHzLbPwJkg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J9saJJmBcPkDnHzLbPwJkg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197756765","content_text":"当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫,随时可能崩盘的时候,关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。再加上,所谓“错失恐惧症”(FOMO)依然广泛存在着,这一切很可能意味着,美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势,之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。\n\n\n从市盈率来看,美股市场当前的价位已经来到了历史级的超高水平,让过去许多泡沫的顶点都相形见绌。正因为如此,近期以来,关于美股形成泡沫,必然破灭的风险的警告声也日益高涨起来。\n毋庸赘言,这巨大的风险已经形成了整个市场所面临的严峻挑战。只不过,这些警告虽然就大方向而言是正确的,但是投资者现在可能还没有到必须按照其行事的时机。这里最微妙的地方就在于,当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫,随时可能崩盘的时候,关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。\n再加上,所谓“错失恐惧症”(FOMO)依然广泛存在着,这一切很可能意味着,美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势,之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。\n缺失的关键指标\n极端化的债务,高保证金债务,高估值,再加上低收益率,这些成分几乎已经快要配全了一副崩盘的药方。很多个月以来,保证金债务的高企已经成为了越来越多市场观察家的心头之患。事实就是,保证金债务水平很久前就已经达到了历史性的高位,超过了之前若干周期的峰值。比如,早在去年11月,美股市场的保证金债务规模就已经可以和1999年与2008年相提并论了。可是,从那之后,保证金债务水平又猛增了30%。现在,保证金债务总额已经来到了9115亿美元。\n哪怕以相对于国内生产总值的比例来衡量,保证金债务水平现在也相当于美国全部经济体量的大约4%,较之2000年和2008年的高点高出一半左右。当然,许多牛派会强调,相对于标普500指数的总市值,则保证金债务的水平还算不上特别高。这个结论也许是正确的,麻烦在于,产生这个结论的逻辑本身是荒唐的——在泡沫时期当中,标普500指数的市值当然会自动上涨。更何况,保证金债务对市值的比率现在虽然不在历史最高点,但是至少已经和世纪之交的互联网泡沫时期大致相当了。\n总而言之,投资者采取相对倾向于看空的立场,无疑是有充分根据的。事实上,大家近期也在不断听到越来越多关于市值高企和行情过热的警告。问题在于,虽然这些警告都揭示了很多问题,但是现在,市场依然缺少一个泡沫必不可少的要件,即FOMO,或者说错失恐惧症。目前,美股市场上的牛派和熊派还大约是一比一,势均力敌。只不过,缺失的FOMO未来几个月乃至几个季度却可能最终到来。如果结合上述这些因素进行考虑,结论则是短期之内,市场可能上演一波可观的涨势。\nFOMO是重中之重\n如果市场上的几乎所有参与者都相信,随时都可能会发生崩盘,那么任何关于泡沫的论断就将变得无法成立。归根结底,泡沫的叙事当中,其要素正是贪婪、欣快症和乐观。至少目前,美股市场的情绪还没有走到那一步。比如说,目前看涨投资者在市场当中的占比还不到40%,与此同时,看空投资者的占比也有30%以上。\n\n与8月相比,可以发现市场情绪在9月间明显更加倾向于悲观——8月间,看空投资者的比例只有24%,而看涨投资者所占的比例却与9月大致相当。\n市场历史显示,当持悲观立场的投资者数量增加,往往都是买进机会出现的时候。因此,从情绪指标来看,这就意味着和几个月前相比,现在更适合买进美股。\n事实就是,那些真正的泡沫前夜,欣快症严重程度都达到了历史级的水平,比如在2000年,看涨投资者的占比超过了70%,几乎相当于目前的两倍。\n\n与此同时,货币市场基金资产规模的变化轨迹,也清楚地体现出了投资者的这种更倾向于消极,而非积极的立场。目前,货币市场基金的总规模大约是4.52万亿美元,只是略低于2020年疫情大崩盘后的水平而已。\n这一数据为何重要?答案是,货币市场基金的设定,是一种高度稳定,且富于流动性的投资。这些基金的投资对象主要包括现金和期限不足十二个月的债券等。虽然私营投资者也可以买卖货币市场基金,但是在这一领域当中,他们只是小玩家,整个市场主要是由机构投资者,比如银行、保险公司和政府等主导的。\n总而言之,货币市场基金的资产情况可以说明有多少现金正在作壁上观,能够在短期之内投入使用。此外,从这一数据当中,还可以清楚地窥见机构投资者,即所谓“聪明钱”依然在犹豫之中,不愿意全身心投入股票,因此才选择大量持有现金或者流动性资产。\nFOMO燃料充足\n因此,一方面看来,当下的美股市场依然缺乏欣快症,相反,许多投资者依然站在相对悲观的立场上。不然的话,也就无法解释大家会持有如此规模的短期流动性的一幕。此外,美股市场的投资者也必须密切关注债券市场。数据显示,这一市场上,投资者目前也在大举撤资。\n\n抛售的原因,就是即将到来的加息。诚然,利率的上涨意味着即将到来的新债券将提供更高的票息,但是问题在于,那些已经发行的债券,其票息却不会再变化了。结果就是,大家纷纷售出债券,导致价格下跌。\n美国银行最近的全球基金经理人调查也发现,更多资产配置专家选择了减持债券,其减持力度达到了调查二十多年前开始以来所仅见的水平。\n\n总之,现在已经有大量资金在作壁上观了,但是在与此同时,资本还在从其他领域不断撤出。\n这些都意味着,这些资金未来有很大概率流入美股市场,最终在投资者当中触发全面的FOMO。在具体构成上,这一方面是来自于各大央行继续犹豫不决等待观望的态度,一方面也是股价越涨就会带动越多投资者参与的雪球效应使然。事实上,这一大趋势向回可以一直追溯到全球金融危机的时代。2009年以来,股票在投资者总资产当中的占比一直在稳步走高,现在已经达到了和2000年类似的高度。\n\n在这样的大背景下,一种新的叙事已经兴起——TINA RIF,意思是,投资者除开股票之外别无选择,因此任何抵抗都是徒劳的。如果这样的叙事继续铺开,则短期乃至中期之内的猛烈涨势便被人为赋予了合理性。因为到了最后关头,所有人都会冲进舞池,希望在派对结束前狂舞一番。到那时,也就进入了属于FOMO的时期,后者自我滚起雪球,而股价上涨再上涨也就不可避免了。\n最后涨势或已开始\n最近几天的标普500指数表现已经开始传达出一种有趣的信息,即上行趋势正在变得越来越强势。从这个角度看,之前几周的下跌似乎已经形成了一种完美的空头陷阱。下一个阶段,这一切大概率会被最终确定为一场双底反转。站在图表分析师的立场上,这都是相对看涨的指标。因此,也许这一长期大牛市的最后一波涨势,现在已经宣告开始。\n\n结论\n虽然对于基本面研究者而言,说美股还有全盘大涨的潜力,这种判断缺失是难以接受的,但是事实就是事实,是不以人的意志为转移的。现在最显而易见的是,投资者缺失缺乏其他的选项,股票又是他们很容易获得的。更不必说,在牛派和熊派如此势均力敌的时候,就下定泡沫的结论显然是为时太早。\n不过,如果市场能够结束FOMO缺失的时期,股票价格就将在未来几个月当中大涨。显然,并不是所有人都愿意参加派对,而且大家都知道,当每一个派对参加者都在舞池当中没有明天一样地狂舞时,派对的结束也就开始了倒计时。总之,无论如何,现在肯定还不是做空美股市场的时候。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":639289313,"gmtCreate":1643299805513,"gmtModify":1643299805513,"author":{"id":"3561649565466203","authorId":"3561649565466203","name":"Huan娱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f0e6d86680b202c05ed56a4c11e9bb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561649565466203","idStr":"3561649565466203"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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