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fangqing0622
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IP属地:北京
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fangqing0622
2020-11-04
$蔚来(NIO)$
我不是在做梦吧?我的蔚来不是梦。[开心] [开心] [开心]
fangqing0622
2021-03-13
$蔚来(NIO)$
一点点好起来
fangqing0622
2021-03-18
$AMC院线(AMC)$
大家好,我是今天新来的!
fangqing0622
2021-01-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
记录这一刻USD66.66
$蔚来(NIO)$
fangqing0622
2021-11-09
$AMC院线(AMC)$
财报很好,继续持有观望。
fangqing0622
2021-03-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
忽略短期波动
fangqing0622
2021-03-05
$蔚来(NIO)$
跌倒底裤都要没了的我应该怎么做?
fangqing0622
2020-12-01
$拼多多(PDD)$
拼多多为什么比Apple 还贵呢?
fangqing0622
2021-03-05
$蔚来(NIO)$
三兄弟中蔚来也是尽力了
fangqing0622
2021-02-28
$百度(BIDU)$
百度起来
fangqing0622
2020-11-02
小白兔们该怎么做呢
做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险
fangqing0622
2021-11-05
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
咋整啊?抛掉还是继续持有呢?管理层真是不干实事。愁人
fangqing0622
2020-11-13
$蔚来(NIO)$
$蔚来(NIO)$
[哇塞] [哇塞] [哇塞] [哇塞] 哇塞了!
fangqing0622
2020-11-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
我的未来不是梦
$蔚来(NIO)$
fangqing0622
2021-03-18
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
听师傅的话
fangqing0622
2021-02-28
$蔚来(NIO)$
待涨回60+以后平掉一部分,留一些子弹多多学习,重新布局。但谁知道何时能涨回60家,anyway我们还是要抱有一个长期的眼光与愿景。
fangqing0622
2020-11-12
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
冲鸭!
fangqing0622
2020-10-29
$蔚来(NIO)$
哇塞!
fangqing0622
2021-11-05
$爱彼迎(ABNB)$
$爱彼迎(ABNB)$
YYDS
fangqing0622
2021-03-13
$蔚来(NIO)$
周末愉快
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376842912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355379103,"gmtCreate":1617031329602,"gmtModify":1617031329602,"author":{"id":"3560766562298993","authorId":"3560766562298993","name":"fangqing0622","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554d88faf55cca810dd28ffc295e2c56","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>哭死了","listText":"<a 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19:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120240427","media":"最贪婪的交易员","summary":"美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,","content":"<p>美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。</p>\n<p>股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。</p>\n<p>美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是<b>1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa07764170c0a24b0cf3f8097f81162\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"491\"></p>\n<p>道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81630991209b611e97ae8dc9370ac9dd\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅,接近44这个十分重要的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffcea60382b18a72bd9a358261c19e7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\"></p>\n<p>WTI原油跌到了34美元水平,为5月以来最低。</p>\n<p>总而言之,最关键也是最危险的一周,来了。</p>\n<p><b>最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程</b></p>\n<p>投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好,据说这利好民主党,共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。</p>\n<p>一些城市的街道严阵以待,商户用木板把店面封闭,以免在大选夜遭到破坏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381c9f9c314071ffd31c707af0b6b023\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>投注网站PredictIt显示,拜登胜率为66%,高于一周前的62.9%;川普的胜率约为39%,也略高于一周前的37.1%。</p>\n<p>Real Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示,拜登的支持率为51.3%,川普为43.5%。</p>\n<p>我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4984869d65719b08166c56dc5e90d024\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>从周末的民调看,佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。</p>\n<p>另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际,前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意,这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程,体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。</p>\n<p>宾州也是最重要的战场州之一,现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年,川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州,拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。</p>\n<p>但民调不可尽信,如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车,会发生什么?结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张,而拜登只能赢得259张。</p>\n<p><b>若真如此,那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱,因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b9b60aeca4804936f45d0b8e5ef7e6\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"428\"></p>\n<p>刚刚过去的周末,还有一个重要的变化。</p>\n<p>CNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔,社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。</p>\n<p>CNN甚至发表了一篇社论称,川普值得第二个任期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcec13920b4b5843cac8e7170134cb13\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p>在这大选前的最后时刻,如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸,难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。</p>\n<p>再者,虽然这个事件来得比较晚,可能还不足以逆转选情,但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面,大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下,事件的影响也会很长久。</p>\n<p><b>做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%,川普更断言,“大选日当晚不会出结果,要等好几周”。</p>\n<p>在一些最重要的“摇摆州”,混乱的前兆已经出现。</p>\n<p>宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票,有些郡出现大量选票遗失,<b>得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>整体而言,威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着,两位候选人的得票可能相当接近,从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。</b></p>\n<p>提醒一下:各个州验证结果,和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日(投票后35天),或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。</p>\n<p>根据目前已知的情况,<b>佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回,北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票,并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。</b></p>\n<p>因此,佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉,给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。</p>\n<p><b>例如,如果川普拿不下佛州,胜选的可能性就会小很多,市场会立即认为他已经输了。</b></p>\n<p>同样的,如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席,那么,市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。</p>\n<p>不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天,<b>如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近,那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。</b></p>\n<p><b>如何交易大选?</b></p>\n<p>首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。</p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示,<b>未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。</b>按照经验,如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似,就应该降低风险敞口。</p>\n<p>相反,<b>如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似,那么即使VIX飙到44,你还是可以增加风险敞口。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be4150424767aa43652dbd7a3ab9fb5\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"502\"></p>\n<p>至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑,我们可以通过下表直观了解:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a57dff41968ff729e6a97000c9b6ec5\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>大选结果对于各类资产的影响,在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。</p>\n<p>对美股而言,<b>无论川普还是拜登获胜,都是有利的</b>——前者有减税政策,后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。</p>\n<p>而美股上涨的幅度,则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。</p>\n<p>当然了,<b>最坏的结果是:选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%</b>——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者,美股可能跌入熊市。</p>\n<p>富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡,如果结果不明,动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验,银行股最受伤。\n</blockquote>\n<p>同为风险资产,原油的前景就比美股惨多了。</p>\n<p>要是川普继续当选,当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变,美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续,油价应当获利上涨。</p>\n<p>但要是拜登上台,<b>无论民主党能否控制参议院,新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划,油价必遭重创。</b></p>\n<p>美元和黄金,预计不会展现出明显负相关性。</p>\n<p>一方面,虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满,但大选结果对美元汇率的影响,和美股一样,<b>更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩,而不是总统的个人意志。</b></p>\n<p>如果拜登当选且拿下参议院,超大规模刺激法案出炉,对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反,川普连任,两党分裂延续,美元便会得到喘息之机。</p>\n<p>另一方面,<b>要是大选结果出现争议,黄金和加密货币会受益。</b>因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡,还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5c2329872d8d675ac92f4a7a15d5c9\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p>总结下来,美股的大选交易逻辑就是:<b>国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果,因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。</b></p>\n<p>美股最担心的是,拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院,或者川普胜出,因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。</p>","source":"lsy1572248118994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-02 19:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA><strong>最贪婪的交易员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e092e4cceb42b6f10c3f508ff5e2078","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120240427","content_text":"美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅,接近44这个十分重要的水平。\n\nWTI原油跌到了34美元水平,为5月以来最低。\n总而言之,最关键也是最危险的一周,来了。\n最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程\n投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好,据说这利好民主党,共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。\n一些城市的街道严阵以待,商户用木板把店面封闭,以免在大选夜遭到破坏。\n\n投注网站PredictIt显示,拜登胜率为66%,高于一周前的62.9%;川普的胜率约为39%,也略高于一周前的37.1%。\nReal Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示,拜登的支持率为51.3%,川普为43.5%。\n我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。\n\n从周末的民调看,佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。\n另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际,前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意,这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程,体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。\n宾州也是最重要的战场州之一,现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年,川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州,拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。\n但民调不可尽信,如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车,会发生什么?结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张,而拜登只能赢得259张。\n若真如此,那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱,因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。\n\n刚刚过去的周末,还有一个重要的变化。\nCNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔,社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。\nCNN甚至发表了一篇社论称,川普值得第二个任期。\n\n在这大选前的最后时刻,如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸,难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。\n再者,虽然这个事件来得比较晚,可能还不足以逆转选情,但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面,大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下,事件的影响也会很长久。\n做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备\n摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%,川普更断言,“大选日当晚不会出结果,要等好几周”。\n在一些最重要的“摇摆州”,混乱的前兆已经出现。\n宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票,有些郡出现大量选票遗失,得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。\n整体而言,威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着,两位候选人的得票可能相当接近,从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。\n提醒一下:各个州验证结果,和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日(投票后35天),或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。\n根据目前已知的情况,佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回,北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票,并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。\n因此,佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉,给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。\n例如,如果川普拿不下佛州,胜选的可能性就会小很多,市场会立即认为他已经输了。\n同样的,如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席,那么,市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。\n不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天,如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近,那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。\n如何交易大选?\n首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。\n恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示,未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。按照经验,如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似,就应该降低风险敞口。\n相反,如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似,那么即使VIX飙到44,你还是可以增加风险敞口。\n\n至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑,我们可以通过下表直观了解:\n\n大选结果对于各类资产的影响,在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。\n对美股而言,无论川普还是拜登获胜,都是有利的——前者有减税政策,后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。\n而美股上涨的幅度,则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。\n当然了,最坏的结果是:选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者,美股可能跌入熊市。\n富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者:\n\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡,如果结果不明,动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验,银行股最受伤。\n\n同为风险资产,原油的前景就比美股惨多了。\n要是川普继续当选,当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变,美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续,油价应当获利上涨。\n但要是拜登上台,无论民主党能否控制参议院,新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划,油价必遭重创。\n美元和黄金,预计不会展现出明显负相关性。\n一方面,虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满,但大选结果对美元汇率的影响,和美股一样,更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩,而不是总统的个人意志。\n如果拜登当选且拿下参议院,超大规模刺激法案出炉,对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反,川普连任,两党分裂延续,美元便会得到喘息之机。\n另一方面,要是大选结果出现争议,黄金和加密货币会受益。因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡,还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。\n\n总结下来,美股的大选交易逻辑就是:国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果,因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。\n美股最担心的是,拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院,或者川普胜出,因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3564096079768640","authorId":"3564096079768640","name":"一遇风云便化龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/682c45bdf42f2059d1d9ae2d5d5da5e7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"小白兔有男朋友吗?","text":"小白兔有男朋友吗?","html":"小白兔有男朋友吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846663197,"gmtCreate":1636078469181,"gmtModify":1636078469181,"author":{"id":"3560766562298993","authorId":"3560766562298993","name":"fangqing0622","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554d88faf55cca810dd28ffc295e2c56","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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