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2021-12-08

Yes, indeed.

Apple: A True 'Never Sell' Position

2021-12-03

$RLX Technology(RLX)$Results is not that bad if you compare y-o-y. In addition, the company remains super cash rich. "As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments and long-term bank deposits of $2,284.6M, compared to RMB14,880.8M as of June 30, 2021."

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2021-12-03

Can Twitter still bounce back?

Latest CEO Appointment The latest leadership shift may signal Twitter ($Twitter(TWTR)$)'s possible change of strategic direction. This could be in a good way, i.e. the new leadership could help meet management's user growth and revenue targets. Alternatively, some analysts argues that an internally promoted CEO may fail to bring fresh outside perspectives and "reinvigorate growth". Condequently, do expect volatile short-term share performance. Financial Performance Twitter's 3Q21 financial performance was not keeping up with previous quarters' growth and profitability; thus, the share price has fallen -46% from its YTD high. It has recorded a quarterly loss of US$ -536.76 million due to the US$ 809.5 milion legal settlemen

Can Twitter still bounce back?

2021-12-01

unlikely... because Biden's party is afaving election next year. The Fed's tapering will only cause emerging markets to crash while US market will maintain its rosiness due to US Dollar's dominating position in the world.

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While I absolutely wish I would have bought more of this powerhouse in years past, I've made do with incremental gains from dividend reinvestment.</p>\n<p>The news cycle would have you believe that this behemoth has head-winds galore, and that the downfall could come any day now. With limited risk and potential galore, is the company worth buying today?</p>\n<p><b>Limited Risk</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe4e9d4f4aca197052840240959df43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"831\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image: Forbes magazine cover, 2007</span></p>\n<p>I am familiar with cellphone manufacturers of days past. Nokia, for example, used to be the titan of industry. It was thought to be untouchable and then came the iPhone. I mean, just look at the Forbes cover above, \"can anyone catch the cell phone king?\"</p>\n<p>That cover hit news stands on November 12, 2007, a few months after the iPhone had made its debut. The straw that broke Nokia's back, and the feature which gives Apple a moat wider than Apple Park today, The App Store launched in mid-2008.</p>\n<p>The App Store, as simple as it may seem, gave Apple the keys to the kingdom. Rather than be limited to the few apps that came on your Nokia device, you could use one of the thousands of apps sold by third-party developers on the iPhone. This was the beginning of a world-beating ecosystem.</p>\n<p>Today, Apple's ecosystem has grown in a significant way. The growth of that ecosystem means that Apple \"fanboys\" would have to spend thousands of dollars, or work through significant inconveniences to switch.</p>\n<p>Consider the user that has subscriptions to several apps, Air Pods, an Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, and perhaps a MacBook. That person is not an outlier. If they consider switching to Android they'll have to cancel those several apps, throw their Apple Watch out, replace the AirPods, and would lose lots of great tie-in messaging functionality across the iPad and MacBook.</p>\n<p>First-world problems, absolutely. The tie-in, however, is real. Apple make world-class products that users love. They get caught up in all the added accessories which deliver a great experience and then they are customers for life.</p>\n<p>Apple stock, for all intents and purposes, is a better place to keep your money than cash because of this lack of risk. Should something start to topple this house of cards, it wouldn't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen as rapidly as it happened to Nokia because of the switching costs Apple has built up.</p>\n<p><b>Enviable Metrics</b></p>\n<p>Despite running up against the law of large numbers, Apple continues to look stellar when considering a number of different metrics.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f0199dd5d3c8dade8af08d884a5459\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image: Apple's debt per 10-K (Page 45)</span></p>\n<p>The worst metric, in my opinion, Apple has is a 1.7 debt-to-equity ratio. However, on that figure, my mind may be stuck in a good days of positive interest rates. Much of Apple's $109B of debt is at a negligible (0.03-2%) interest rate. Higher end servicing costs sit a hair below 5%, but this makes up a minority of Apple's debt&nbsp;per the company's 10-K filings.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547e6241dab1a7aef3e649fb0f10d5ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>All of that money did not go into internal projects, however, it went to share buybacks. Perhaps no company epitomizes share buybacks like Apple has over the last decade. The company has retired hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of stock to shareholders benefit, and it continues to do so today.</p>\n<p>These share buybacks are why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) now owns 5.5% of Apple. Back when many lauded Buffett for being late to the Apple train, he has proven his conviction worthwhile and helped an already massive Berkshire portfolio continue to beat the market with this high concentration investment.</p>\n<p>Buffett aside, Apple does excel in several metrics one should be looking for when investing in high-quality stocks. Return on equity here sits at an eye-popping 140% due to a pandemic induced expansion in net income.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a898072faa8c46eeaa734222ff059\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Given the amount of debt, return on invested capital, likely, is the better metric to take a look at here. Apple's ROIC has been consistently over the 20% mark, which is a sign of a fantastic business.</p>\n<p>Oh, and it probably goes without mentioning, but this business is cash rich. Apple, as of its last report, has $35B in cash on hand and $155B in marketable securities (a mix of current and non-current). With $190B in capital that the company can still deploy, Apple is certainly in an enviable position.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation: Rich</b></p>\n<p>Those metrics are not unknown, but they are incredible. It's no surprise that Apple will likely cross $3T market cap in the next year or so, but is the company worth buying at these high levels?</p>\n<p>As mentioned above, I view Apple as an almost cash like position. In a world of inflation, Apple has the balance sheet to carry it through, it has significant pricing power, and it has exceptionally high margins on its products to be able to weather the storm. Would you rather your money lose 5% of its buying power per year, or grow in an American titan like Apple?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a160cc869ef1cc00bd4eb8db7bd93\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image: A mockup VR headset via BGR</span></p>\n<p>A valuation of Apple also has to include the potential for an Apple Car, or the AR/VR headsets that will be with us within the next 18-months. These types of projects have been kept well under wraps, but considering the valuations of EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), the market will reward Apple rather richly for a well-executed product.</p>\n<p>An Apple car with deep iOS integration,as is speculated, would further drive the ecosystem flywheel. In fact, it would take that flywheel to unimaginable levels. Imagine trying to leave an ecosystem where you have to replace a $50K (and I'm probably being cheap) car, a phone, a computer... it's quite the lock in.</p>\n<p>Taking AR/VR into account, one would have to consider that AR could be a cannibalizing force for the iPhone. If one can see all they need through lenses and control those lenses through gestures or the Apple Watch, Apple could cannibalize the phone market.</p>\n<p>That, however, is a good thing. Apple could price a novel item like AR glasses with higher margins than a phone. Fans and tech enthusiasts would pay that early adopter price and others would soon follow suit if the product lives up to the hype. It gets Apple out of the \"$1,000 for a phone\" line of thinking.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a008b34566e3309b095ad284807d12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>All this to say, Apple's rich valuation today is a worthy one. At a PE of ~29, it's hardly extortionate, but it is outside of Apple's average over the last five years.</p>\n<p>The ecosystem, one that ties its customers in for life, is where the value lies here and Apple has plans to expand that with vehicles and wearables. Even at a PE of 29, I believe this to be a secure long-term investment that will pay investors a dividend, albeit small, along the way while continuing to retire billions of dollars in stock ($315B authorized ~10%).</p>\n<p><b>Addressing The Risks</b></p>\n<p>Fear and inflation. Fear is the largest and most significant risk that Apple faces. Buyers told that bad times are coming tend to zip up their pocketbooks. Buyers who have to spend 10% more on groceries suddenly don't have enough to buy the latest iPhone.</p>\n<p>These are external concerns that Apple has little control over. The company has, over the years, introduced buy-now-pay-later and subscription programs that help buyers get the goods they want at an affordable monthly price, and, as discussed, Apple has substantial margins that it could use to overcome significant headwinds in this space.</p>\n<p>Execution is another risk Apple faces, especially as we look to these \"futuristic\" products. A self-driving car could be worth trillions of dollars in lifetime revenues, or it could be a dud upon release that never gets full approval to operate on the streets. Likewise, an AR headset that no one wants to be seen wearing, or that proves difficult to wear through the day, could be a dead-on-arrival product.</p>\n<p>Given the nature of these two products and the secrecy surrounding their development, one cannot truly assign a real risk rating to them. They're just things to be aware of. Apple does have a history of great execution (MacBook keyboard and Touch Bar aside), however, so an investor should feel at least somewhat comfortable that the company will put its best foot forward.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>At a valuation nearing $3T one would assume there isn't much room left to run in Apple, but investors still stand to beat the overall market in this name thanks to excellent capital allocation.</p>\n<p>Apple has $315B in authorized buybacks and returns some $14.5B in dividends each year. Apple will likely buyback close to $100B in stock during its 2022 fiscal year which, alone, represents a 3.7% return on today's prices. Combined with a dividend yield of 0.6%, investors will make 4.3% on this name through shareholder friendly practices alone.</p>\n<p>Those numbers will compound too, another $100B in 2023, $100B in 2024, it all adds up. That $300B is all authorized too.</p>\n<p>Along with those buybacks and dividends, investors are buying into a company that, last year, defied laws of large numbers and grew its top-line at 33%. While unlikely this year, I still expect that the wearables and services divisions will grow at double digits which will allow Apple to see high single-digit revenue growth through the coming 3-5 years.</p>\n<p>Those with a bearish view on Apple act as though this juggernaut will vanish overnight, but that's simply not true. Sure, you're unlikely to pull down 30%+ annual returns going forward, but if you're looking for a high-quality stable business that can beat the market little-by-little, Apple is a great horse (or car) to back.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: A True 'Never Sell' Position</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: A True 'Never Sell' Position\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-07 22:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWith $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.\nIn addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162682713","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.\nIn addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in wearables and services, even if iPhone slows down a little.\nThe Apple ecosystem also stands to get more intertwined with a potential Apple Car and AR/VR plays.\n\nCatLane/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAt an almost $3T market cap, I am still a holder of Apple (AAPL). While I absolutely wish I would have bought more of this powerhouse in years past, I've made do with incremental gains from dividend reinvestment.\nThe news cycle would have you believe that this behemoth has head-winds galore, and that the downfall could come any day now. With limited risk and potential galore, is the company worth buying today?\nLimited Risk\nImage: Forbes magazine cover, 2007\nI am familiar with cellphone manufacturers of days past. Nokia, for example, used to be the titan of industry. It was thought to be untouchable and then came the iPhone. I mean, just look at the Forbes cover above, \"can anyone catch the cell phone king?\"\nThat cover hit news stands on November 12, 2007, a few months after the iPhone had made its debut. The straw that broke Nokia's back, and the feature which gives Apple a moat wider than Apple Park today, The App Store launched in mid-2008.\nThe App Store, as simple as it may seem, gave Apple the keys to the kingdom. Rather than be limited to the few apps that came on your Nokia device, you could use one of the thousands of apps sold by third-party developers on the iPhone. This was the beginning of a world-beating ecosystem.\nToday, Apple's ecosystem has grown in a significant way. The growth of that ecosystem means that Apple \"fanboys\" would have to spend thousands of dollars, or work through significant inconveniences to switch.\nConsider the user that has subscriptions to several apps, Air Pods, an Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, and perhaps a MacBook. That person is not an outlier. If they consider switching to Android they'll have to cancel those several apps, throw their Apple Watch out, replace the AirPods, and would lose lots of great tie-in messaging functionality across the iPad and MacBook.\nFirst-world problems, absolutely. The tie-in, however, is real. Apple make world-class products that users love. They get caught up in all the added accessories which deliver a great experience and then they are customers for life.\nApple stock, for all intents and purposes, is a better place to keep your money than cash because of this lack of risk. Should something start to topple this house of cards, it wouldn't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen as rapidly as it happened to Nokia because of the switching costs Apple has built up.\nEnviable Metrics\nDespite running up against the law of large numbers, Apple continues to look stellar when considering a number of different metrics.\nImage: Apple's debt per 10-K (Page 45)\nThe worst metric, in my opinion, Apple has is a 1.7 debt-to-equity ratio. However, on that figure, my mind may be stuck in a good days of positive interest rates. Much of Apple's $109B of debt is at a negligible (0.03-2%) interest rate. Higher end servicing costs sit a hair below 5%, but this makes up a minority of Apple's debt per the company's 10-K filings.\nData by YCharts\nAll of that money did not go into internal projects, however, it went to share buybacks. Perhaps no company epitomizes share buybacks like Apple has over the last decade. The company has retired hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of stock to shareholders benefit, and it continues to do so today.\nThese share buybacks are why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) now owns 5.5% of Apple. Back when many lauded Buffett for being late to the Apple train, he has proven his conviction worthwhile and helped an already massive Berkshire portfolio continue to beat the market with this high concentration investment.\nBuffett aside, Apple does excel in several metrics one should be looking for when investing in high-quality stocks. Return on equity here sits at an eye-popping 140% due to a pandemic induced expansion in net income.\nData by YCharts\nGiven the amount of debt, return on invested capital, likely, is the better metric to take a look at here. Apple's ROIC has been consistently over the 20% mark, which is a sign of a fantastic business.\nOh, and it probably goes without mentioning, but this business is cash rich. Apple, as of its last report, has $35B in cash on hand and $155B in marketable securities (a mix of current and non-current). With $190B in capital that the company can still deploy, Apple is certainly in an enviable position.\nValuation: Rich\nThose metrics are not unknown, but they are incredible. It's no surprise that Apple will likely cross $3T market cap in the next year or so, but is the company worth buying at these high levels?\nAs mentioned above, I view Apple as an almost cash like position. In a world of inflation, Apple has the balance sheet to carry it through, it has significant pricing power, and it has exceptionally high margins on its products to be able to weather the storm. Would you rather your money lose 5% of its buying power per year, or grow in an American titan like Apple?\nImage: A mockup VR headset via BGR\nA valuation of Apple also has to include the potential for an Apple Car, or the AR/VR headsets that will be with us within the next 18-months. These types of projects have been kept well under wraps, but considering the valuations of EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), the market will reward Apple rather richly for a well-executed product.\nAn Apple car with deep iOS integration,as is speculated, would further drive the ecosystem flywheel. In fact, it would take that flywheel to unimaginable levels. Imagine trying to leave an ecosystem where you have to replace a $50K (and I'm probably being cheap) car, a phone, a computer... it's quite the lock in.\nTaking AR/VR into account, one would have to consider that AR could be a cannibalizing force for the iPhone. If one can see all they need through lenses and control those lenses through gestures or the Apple Watch, Apple could cannibalize the phone market.\nThat, however, is a good thing. Apple could price a novel item like AR glasses with higher margins than a phone. Fans and tech enthusiasts would pay that early adopter price and others would soon follow suit if the product lives up to the hype. It gets Apple out of the \"$1,000 for a phone\" line of thinking.\nData by YCharts\nAll this to say, Apple's rich valuation today is a worthy one. At a PE of ~29, it's hardly extortionate, but it is outside of Apple's average over the last five years.\nThe ecosystem, one that ties its customers in for life, is where the value lies here and Apple has plans to expand that with vehicles and wearables. Even at a PE of 29, I believe this to be a secure long-term investment that will pay investors a dividend, albeit small, along the way while continuing to retire billions of dollars in stock ($315B authorized ~10%).\nAddressing The Risks\nFear and inflation. Fear is the largest and most significant risk that Apple faces. Buyers told that bad times are coming tend to zip up their pocketbooks. Buyers who have to spend 10% more on groceries suddenly don't have enough to buy the latest iPhone.\nThese are external concerns that Apple has little control over. The company has, over the years, introduced buy-now-pay-later and subscription programs that help buyers get the goods they want at an affordable monthly price, and, as discussed, Apple has substantial margins that it could use to overcome significant headwinds in this space.\nExecution is another risk Apple faces, especially as we look to these \"futuristic\" products. A self-driving car could be worth trillions of dollars in lifetime revenues, or it could be a dud upon release that never gets full approval to operate on the streets. Likewise, an AR headset that no one wants to be seen wearing, or that proves difficult to wear through the day, could be a dead-on-arrival product.\nGiven the nature of these two products and the secrecy surrounding their development, one cannot truly assign a real risk rating to them. They're just things to be aware of. Apple does have a history of great execution (MacBook keyboard and Touch Bar aside), however, so an investor should feel at least somewhat comfortable that the company will put its best foot forward.\nFinal Thoughts\nAt a valuation nearing $3T one would assume there isn't much room left to run in Apple, but investors still stand to beat the overall market in this name thanks to excellent capital allocation.\nApple has $315B in authorized buybacks and returns some $14.5B in dividends each year. Apple will likely buyback close to $100B in stock during its 2022 fiscal year which, alone, represents a 3.7% return on today's prices. Combined with a dividend yield of 0.6%, investors will make 4.3% on this name through shareholder friendly practices alone.\nThose numbers will compound too, another $100B in 2023, $100B in 2024, it all adds up. That $300B is all authorized too.\nAlong with those buybacks and dividends, investors are buying into a company that, last year, defied laws of large numbers and grew its top-line at 33%. While unlikely this year, I still expect that the wearables and services divisions will grow at double digits which will allow Apple to see high single-digit revenue growth through the coming 3-5 years.\nThose with a bearish view on Apple act as though this juggernaut will vanish overnight, but that's simply not true. Sure, you're unlikely to pull down 30%+ annual returns going forward, but if you're looking for a high-quality stable business that can beat the market little-by-little, Apple is a great horse (or car) to back.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601229377,"gmtCreate":1638537060531,"gmtModify":1638537060531,"author":{"id":"3559733011538828","authorId":"3559733011538828","name":"1728fd41","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX Technology(RLX)$</a>Results is not that bad if you compare y-o-y.&nbsp;In addition, the company remains super cash rich. \"As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments and long-term bank deposits of $2,284.6M, compared to RMB14,880.8M as of June 30, 2021.\"","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX Technology(RLX)$</a>Results is not that bad if you compare y-o-y.&nbsp;In addition, the company remains super cash rich. \"As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments and long-term bank deposits of $2,284.6M, compared to RMB14,880.8M as of June 30, 2021.\"","text":"$RLX Technology(RLX)$Results is not that bad if you compare y-o-y. In addition, the company remains super cash rich. \"As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments and long-term bank deposits of $2,284.6M, compared to RMB14,880.8M as of June 30, 2021.\"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601229377","repostId":"2188525871","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601825129,"gmtCreate":1638511352907,"gmtModify":1638517498753,"author":{"id":"3559733011538828","authorId":"3559733011538828","name":"1728fd41","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Can Twitter still bounce back?","htmlText":"Latest CEO Appointment The latest leadership shift may signal Twitter (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>)'s possible change of strategic direction. This could be in a good way, i.e. the new leadership could help meet management's user growth and revenue targets.&nbsp; Alternatively, some analysts argues that an internally promoted CEO may fail to bring fresh outside perspectives and \"reinvigorate growth\". Condequently, do expect volatile short-term&nbsp;share performance. Financial Performance Twitter's 3Q21 financial performance was not keeping up with previous quarters' growth and profitability; thus, the share price has fallen -46% from its YTD high. It has recorded a quarterly loss of US$ -536.76 million due to the US$ 809.5 milion legal settlemen","listText":"Latest CEO Appointment The latest leadership shift may signal Twitter (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>)'s possible change of strategic direction. This could be in a good way, i.e. the new leadership could help meet management's user growth and revenue targets.&nbsp; Alternatively, some analysts argues that an internally promoted CEO may fail to bring fresh outside perspectives and \"reinvigorate growth\". Condequently, do expect volatile short-term&nbsp;share performance. Financial Performance Twitter's 3Q21 financial performance was not keeping up with previous quarters' growth and profitability; thus, the share price has fallen -46% from its YTD high. It has recorded a quarterly loss of US$ -536.76 million due to the US$ 809.5 milion legal settlemen","text":"Latest CEO Appointment The latest leadership shift may signal Twitter ($Twitter(TWTR)$)'s possible change of strategic direction. This could be in a good way, i.e. the new leadership could help meet management's user growth and revenue targets. Alternatively, some analysts argues that an internally promoted CEO may fail to bring fresh outside perspectives and \"reinvigorate growth\". Condequently, do expect volatile short-term share performance. Financial Performance Twitter's 3Q21 financial performance was not keeping up with previous quarters' growth and profitability; thus, the share price has fallen -46% from its YTD high. It has recorded a quarterly loss of US$ -536.76 million due to the US$ 809.5 milion legal settlemen","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601825129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000494","authorId":"9000000000000494","name":"MamieBenson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我很同意你的看法。Twitter一直在发展业务和规模，而且还会继续增长！","text":"我很同意你的看法。Twitter一直在发展业务和规模，而且还会继续增长！","html":"我很同意你的看法。Twitter一直在发展业务和规模，而且还会继续增长！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609770903,"gmtCreate":1638332301959,"gmtModify":1638337913045,"author":{"id":"3559733011538828","authorId":"3559733011538828","name":"1728fd41","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"unlikely... because Biden's&nbsp; party is afaving election next year.&nbsp; The Fed's tapering will only cause emerging markets to crash while US market will maintain its rosiness due to US Dollar's dominating position in the world.","listText":"unlikely... because Biden's&nbsp; party is afaving election next year.&nbsp; The Fed's tapering will only cause emerging markets to crash while US market will maintain its rosiness due to US Dollar's dominating position in the world.","text":"unlikely... because Biden's party is afaving election next year. The Fed's tapering will only cause emerging markets to crash while US market will maintain its rosiness due to US Dollar's dominating position in the world.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609770903","repostId":"1134775339","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":601825129,"gmtCreate":1638511352907,"gmtModify":1638517498753,"author":{"id":"3559733011538828","authorId":"3559733011538828","name":"1728fd41","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Can Twitter still bounce back?","htmlText":"Latest CEO Appointment The latest leadership shift may signal Twitter (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>)'s possible change of strategic direction. This could be in a good way, i.e. the new leadership could help meet management's user growth and revenue targets.&nbsp; Alternatively, some analysts argues that an internally promoted CEO may fail to bring fresh outside perspectives and \"reinvigorate growth\". Condequently, do expect volatile short-term&nbsp;share performance. Financial Performance Twitter's 3Q21 financial performance was not keeping up with previous quarters' growth and profitability; thus, the share price has fallen -46% from its YTD high. It has recorded a quarterly loss of US$ -536.76 million due to the US$ 809.5 milion legal settlemen","listText":"Latest CEO Appointment The latest leadership shift may signal Twitter (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>)'s possible change of strategic direction. This could be in a good way, i.e. the new leadership could help meet management's user growth and revenue targets.&nbsp; Alternatively, some analysts argues that an internally promoted CEO may fail to bring fresh outside perspectives and \"reinvigorate growth\". Condequently, do expect volatile short-term&nbsp;share performance. Financial Performance Twitter's 3Q21 financial performance was not keeping up with previous quarters' growth and profitability; thus, the share price has fallen -46% from its YTD high. It has recorded a quarterly loss of US$ -536.76 million due to the US$ 809.5 milion legal settlemen","text":"Latest CEO Appointment The latest leadership shift may signal Twitter ($Twitter(TWTR)$)'s possible change of strategic direction. This could be in a good way, i.e. the new leadership could help meet management's user growth and revenue targets. Alternatively, some analysts argues that an internally promoted CEO may fail to bring fresh outside perspectives and \"reinvigorate growth\". Condequently, do expect volatile short-term share performance. Financial Performance Twitter's 3Q21 financial performance was not keeping up with previous quarters' growth and profitability; thus, the share price has fallen -46% from its YTD high. It has recorded a quarterly loss of US$ -536.76 million due to the US$ 809.5 milion legal settlemen","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601825129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000494","authorId":"9000000000000494","name":"MamieBenson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我很同意你的看法。Twitter一直在发展业务和规模，而且还会继续增长！","text":"我很同意你的看法。Twitter一直在发展业务和规模，而且还会继续增长！","html":"我很同意你的看法。Twitter一直在发展业务和规模，而且还会继续增长！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601229377,"gmtCreate":1638537060531,"gmtModify":1638537060531,"author":{"id":"3559733011538828","authorId":"3559733011538828","name":"1728fd41","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX Technology(RLX)$</a>Results is not that bad if you compare y-o-y.&nbsp;In addition, the company remains super cash rich. \"As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments and long-term bank deposits of $2,284.6M, compared to RMB14,880.8M as of June 30, 2021.\"","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX Technology(RLX)$</a>Results is not that bad if you compare y-o-y.&nbsp;In addition, the company remains super cash rich. \"As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments and long-term bank deposits of $2,284.6M, compared to RMB14,880.8M as of June 30, 2021.\"","text":"$RLX Technology(RLX)$Results is not that bad if you compare y-o-y. In addition, the company remains super cash rich. \"As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments and long-term bank deposits of $2,284.6M, compared to RMB14,880.8M as of June 30, 2021.\"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601229377","repostId":"2188525871","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606561540,"gmtCreate":1638894807500,"gmtModify":1638894807500,"author":{"id":"3559733011538828","authorId":"3559733011538828","name":"1728fd41","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes, indeed.","listText":"Yes, indeed.","text":"Yes, indeed.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606561540","repostId":"1162682713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162682713","pubTimestamp":1638887298,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162682713?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-07 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: A True 'Never Sell' Position","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162682713","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on share","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>With $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.</li>\n <li>In addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in wearables and services, even if iPhone slows down a little.</li>\n <li>The Apple ecosystem also stands to get more intertwined with a potential Apple Car and AR/VR plays.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404c4a2883110ed556fd9700c5cffb83\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>CatLane/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>At an almost $3T market cap, I am still a holder of Apple (AAPL). While I absolutely wish I would have bought more of this powerhouse in years past, I've made do with incremental gains from dividend reinvestment.</p>\n<p>The news cycle would have you believe that this behemoth has head-winds galore, and that the downfall could come any day now. With limited risk and potential galore, is the company worth buying today?</p>\n<p><b>Limited Risk</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe4e9d4f4aca197052840240959df43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"831\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image: Forbes magazine cover, 2007</span></p>\n<p>I am familiar with cellphone manufacturers of days past. Nokia, for example, used to be the titan of industry. It was thought to be untouchable and then came the iPhone. I mean, just look at the Forbes cover above, \"can anyone catch the cell phone king?\"</p>\n<p>That cover hit news stands on November 12, 2007, a few months after the iPhone had made its debut. The straw that broke Nokia's back, and the feature which gives Apple a moat wider than Apple Park today, The App Store launched in mid-2008.</p>\n<p>The App Store, as simple as it may seem, gave Apple the keys to the kingdom. Rather than be limited to the few apps that came on your Nokia device, you could use one of the thousands of apps sold by third-party developers on the iPhone. This was the beginning of a world-beating ecosystem.</p>\n<p>Today, Apple's ecosystem has grown in a significant way. The growth of that ecosystem means that Apple \"fanboys\" would have to spend thousands of dollars, or work through significant inconveniences to switch.</p>\n<p>Consider the user that has subscriptions to several apps, Air Pods, an Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, and perhaps a MacBook. That person is not an outlier. If they consider switching to Android they'll have to cancel those several apps, throw their Apple Watch out, replace the AirPods, and would lose lots of great tie-in messaging functionality across the iPad and MacBook.</p>\n<p>First-world problems, absolutely. The tie-in, however, is real. Apple make world-class products that users love. They get caught up in all the added accessories which deliver a great experience and then they are customers for life.</p>\n<p>Apple stock, for all intents and purposes, is a better place to keep your money than cash because of this lack of risk. Should something start to topple this house of cards, it wouldn't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen as rapidly as it happened to Nokia because of the switching costs Apple has built up.</p>\n<p><b>Enviable Metrics</b></p>\n<p>Despite running up against the law of large numbers, Apple continues to look stellar when considering a number of different metrics.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f0199dd5d3c8dade8af08d884a5459\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image: Apple's debt per 10-K (Page 45)</span></p>\n<p>The worst metric, in my opinion, Apple has is a 1.7 debt-to-equity ratio. However, on that figure, my mind may be stuck in a good days of positive interest rates. Much of Apple's $109B of debt is at a negligible (0.03-2%) interest rate. Higher end servicing costs sit a hair below 5%, but this makes up a minority of Apple's debt&nbsp;per the company's 10-K filings.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547e6241dab1a7aef3e649fb0f10d5ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>All of that money did not go into internal projects, however, it went to share buybacks. Perhaps no company epitomizes share buybacks like Apple has over the last decade. The company has retired hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of stock to shareholders benefit, and it continues to do so today.</p>\n<p>These share buybacks are why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) now owns 5.5% of Apple. Back when many lauded Buffett for being late to the Apple train, he has proven his conviction worthwhile and helped an already massive Berkshire portfolio continue to beat the market with this high concentration investment.</p>\n<p>Buffett aside, Apple does excel in several metrics one should be looking for when investing in high-quality stocks. Return on equity here sits at an eye-popping 140% due to a pandemic induced expansion in net income.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a898072faa8c46eeaa734222ff059\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Given the amount of debt, return on invested capital, likely, is the better metric to take a look at here. Apple's ROIC has been consistently over the 20% mark, which is a sign of a fantastic business.</p>\n<p>Oh, and it probably goes without mentioning, but this business is cash rich. Apple, as of its last report, has $35B in cash on hand and $155B in marketable securities (a mix of current and non-current). With $190B in capital that the company can still deploy, Apple is certainly in an enviable position.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation: Rich</b></p>\n<p>Those metrics are not unknown, but they are incredible. It's no surprise that Apple will likely cross $3T market cap in the next year or so, but is the company worth buying at these high levels?</p>\n<p>As mentioned above, I view Apple as an almost cash like position. In a world of inflation, Apple has the balance sheet to carry it through, it has significant pricing power, and it has exceptionally high margins on its products to be able to weather the storm. Would you rather your money lose 5% of its buying power per year, or grow in an American titan like Apple?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a160cc869ef1cc00bd4eb8db7bd93\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image: A mockup VR headset via BGR</span></p>\n<p>A valuation of Apple also has to include the potential for an Apple Car, or the AR/VR headsets that will be with us within the next 18-months. These types of projects have been kept well under wraps, but considering the valuations of EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), the market will reward Apple rather richly for a well-executed product.</p>\n<p>An Apple car with deep iOS integration,as is speculated, would further drive the ecosystem flywheel. In fact, it would take that flywheel to unimaginable levels. Imagine trying to leave an ecosystem where you have to replace a $50K (and I'm probably being cheap) car, a phone, a computer... it's quite the lock in.</p>\n<p>Taking AR/VR into account, one would have to consider that AR could be a cannibalizing force for the iPhone. If one can see all they need through lenses and control those lenses through gestures or the Apple Watch, Apple could cannibalize the phone market.</p>\n<p>That, however, is a good thing. Apple could price a novel item like AR glasses with higher margins than a phone. Fans and tech enthusiasts would pay that early adopter price and others would soon follow suit if the product lives up to the hype. It gets Apple out of the \"$1,000 for a phone\" line of thinking.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a008b34566e3309b095ad284807d12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>All this to say, Apple's rich valuation today is a worthy one. At a PE of ~29, it's hardly extortionate, but it is outside of Apple's average over the last five years.</p>\n<p>The ecosystem, one that ties its customers in for life, is where the value lies here and Apple has plans to expand that with vehicles and wearables. Even at a PE of 29, I believe this to be a secure long-term investment that will pay investors a dividend, albeit small, along the way while continuing to retire billions of dollars in stock ($315B authorized ~10%).</p>\n<p><b>Addressing The Risks</b></p>\n<p>Fear and inflation. Fear is the largest and most significant risk that Apple faces. Buyers told that bad times are coming tend to zip up their pocketbooks. Buyers who have to spend 10% more on groceries suddenly don't have enough to buy the latest iPhone.</p>\n<p>These are external concerns that Apple has little control over. The company has, over the years, introduced buy-now-pay-later and subscription programs that help buyers get the goods they want at an affordable monthly price, and, as discussed, Apple has substantial margins that it could use to overcome significant headwinds in this space.</p>\n<p>Execution is another risk Apple faces, especially as we look to these \"futuristic\" products. A self-driving car could be worth trillions of dollars in lifetime revenues, or it could be a dud upon release that never gets full approval to operate on the streets. Likewise, an AR headset that no one wants to be seen wearing, or that proves difficult to wear through the day, could be a dead-on-arrival product.</p>\n<p>Given the nature of these two products and the secrecy surrounding their development, one cannot truly assign a real risk rating to them. They're just things to be aware of. Apple does have a history of great execution (MacBook keyboard and Touch Bar aside), however, so an investor should feel at least somewhat comfortable that the company will put its best foot forward.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>At a valuation nearing $3T one would assume there isn't much room left to run in Apple, but investors still stand to beat the overall market in this name thanks to excellent capital allocation.</p>\n<p>Apple has $315B in authorized buybacks and returns some $14.5B in dividends each year. Apple will likely buyback close to $100B in stock during its 2022 fiscal year which, alone, represents a 3.7% return on today's prices. Combined with a dividend yield of 0.6%, investors will make 4.3% on this name through shareholder friendly practices alone.</p>\n<p>Those numbers will compound too, another $100B in 2023, $100B in 2024, it all adds up. That $300B is all authorized too.</p>\n<p>Along with those buybacks and dividends, investors are buying into a company that, last year, defied laws of large numbers and grew its top-line at 33%. While unlikely this year, I still expect that the wearables and services divisions will grow at double digits which will allow Apple to see high single-digit revenue growth through the coming 3-5 years.</p>\n<p>Those with a bearish view on Apple act as though this juggernaut will vanish overnight, but that's simply not true. Sure, you're unlikely to pull down 30%+ annual returns going forward, but if you're looking for a high-quality stable business that can beat the market little-by-little, Apple is a great horse (or car) to back.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: A True 'Never Sell' Position</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: A True 'Never Sell' Position\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-07 22:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWith $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.\nIn addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162682713","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.\nIn addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in wearables and services, even if iPhone slows down a little.\nThe Apple ecosystem also stands to get more intertwined with a potential Apple Car and AR/VR plays.\n\nCatLane/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAt an almost $3T market cap, I am still a holder of Apple (AAPL). While I absolutely wish I would have bought more of this powerhouse in years past, I've made do with incremental gains from dividend reinvestment.\nThe news cycle would have you believe that this behemoth has head-winds galore, and that the downfall could come any day now. With limited risk and potential galore, is the company worth buying today?\nLimited Risk\nImage: Forbes magazine cover, 2007\nI am familiar with cellphone manufacturers of days past. Nokia, for example, used to be the titan of industry. It was thought to be untouchable and then came the iPhone. I mean, just look at the Forbes cover above, \"can anyone catch the cell phone king?\"\nThat cover hit news stands on November 12, 2007, a few months after the iPhone had made its debut. The straw that broke Nokia's back, and the feature which gives Apple a moat wider than Apple Park today, The App Store launched in mid-2008.\nThe App Store, as simple as it may seem, gave Apple the keys to the kingdom. Rather than be limited to the few apps that came on your Nokia device, you could use one of the thousands of apps sold by third-party developers on the iPhone. This was the beginning of a world-beating ecosystem.\nToday, Apple's ecosystem has grown in a significant way. The growth of that ecosystem means that Apple \"fanboys\" would have to spend thousands of dollars, or work through significant inconveniences to switch.\nConsider the user that has subscriptions to several apps, Air Pods, an Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, and perhaps a MacBook. That person is not an outlier. If they consider switching to Android they'll have to cancel those several apps, throw their Apple Watch out, replace the AirPods, and would lose lots of great tie-in messaging functionality across the iPad and MacBook.\nFirst-world problems, absolutely. The tie-in, however, is real. Apple make world-class products that users love. They get caught up in all the added accessories which deliver a great experience and then they are customers for life.\nApple stock, for all intents and purposes, is a better place to keep your money than cash because of this lack of risk. Should something start to topple this house of cards, it wouldn't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen as rapidly as it happened to Nokia because of the switching costs Apple has built up.\nEnviable Metrics\nDespite running up against the law of large numbers, Apple continues to look stellar when considering a number of different metrics.\nImage: Apple's debt per 10-K (Page 45)\nThe worst metric, in my opinion, Apple has is a 1.7 debt-to-equity ratio. However, on that figure, my mind may be stuck in a good days of positive interest rates. Much of Apple's $109B of debt is at a negligible (0.03-2%) interest rate. Higher end servicing costs sit a hair below 5%, but this makes up a minority of Apple's debt per the company's 10-K filings.\nData by YCharts\nAll of that money did not go into internal projects, however, it went to share buybacks. Perhaps no company epitomizes share buybacks like Apple has over the last decade. The company has retired hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of stock to shareholders benefit, and it continues to do so today.\nThese share buybacks are why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) now owns 5.5% of Apple. Back when many lauded Buffett for being late to the Apple train, he has proven his conviction worthwhile and helped an already massive Berkshire portfolio continue to beat the market with this high concentration investment.\nBuffett aside, Apple does excel in several metrics one should be looking for when investing in high-quality stocks. Return on equity here sits at an eye-popping 140% due to a pandemic induced expansion in net income.\nData by YCharts\nGiven the amount of debt, return on invested capital, likely, is the better metric to take a look at here. Apple's ROIC has been consistently over the 20% mark, which is a sign of a fantastic business.\nOh, and it probably goes without mentioning, but this business is cash rich. Apple, as of its last report, has $35B in cash on hand and $155B in marketable securities (a mix of current and non-current). With $190B in capital that the company can still deploy, Apple is certainly in an enviable position.\nValuation: Rich\nThose metrics are not unknown, but they are incredible. It's no surprise that Apple will likely cross $3T market cap in the next year or so, but is the company worth buying at these high levels?\nAs mentioned above, I view Apple as an almost cash like position. In a world of inflation, Apple has the balance sheet to carry it through, it has significant pricing power, and it has exceptionally high margins on its products to be able to weather the storm. Would you rather your money lose 5% of its buying power per year, or grow in an American titan like Apple?\nImage: A mockup VR headset via BGR\nA valuation of Apple also has to include the potential for an Apple Car, or the AR/VR headsets that will be with us within the next 18-months. These types of projects have been kept well under wraps, but considering the valuations of EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), the market will reward Apple rather richly for a well-executed product.\nAn Apple car with deep iOS integration,as is speculated, would further drive the ecosystem flywheel. In fact, it would take that flywheel to unimaginable levels. Imagine trying to leave an ecosystem where you have to replace a $50K (and I'm probably being cheap) car, a phone, a computer... it's quite the lock in.\nTaking AR/VR into account, one would have to consider that AR could be a cannibalizing force for the iPhone. If one can see all they need through lenses and control those lenses through gestures or the Apple Watch, Apple could cannibalize the phone market.\nThat, however, is a good thing. Apple could price a novel item like AR glasses with higher margins than a phone. Fans and tech enthusiasts would pay that early adopter price and others would soon follow suit if the product lives up to the hype. It gets Apple out of the \"$1,000 for a phone\" line of thinking.\nData by YCharts\nAll this to say, Apple's rich valuation today is a worthy one. At a PE of ~29, it's hardly extortionate, but it is outside of Apple's average over the last five years.\nThe ecosystem, one that ties its customers in for life, is where the value lies here and Apple has plans to expand that with vehicles and wearables. Even at a PE of 29, I believe this to be a secure long-term investment that will pay investors a dividend, albeit small, along the way while continuing to retire billions of dollars in stock ($315B authorized ~10%).\nAddressing The Risks\nFear and inflation. Fear is the largest and most significant risk that Apple faces. Buyers told that bad times are coming tend to zip up their pocketbooks. Buyers who have to spend 10% more on groceries suddenly don't have enough to buy the latest iPhone.\nThese are external concerns that Apple has little control over. The company has, over the years, introduced buy-now-pay-later and subscription programs that help buyers get the goods they want at an affordable monthly price, and, as discussed, Apple has substantial margins that it could use to overcome significant headwinds in this space.\nExecution is another risk Apple faces, especially as we look to these \"futuristic\" products. A self-driving car could be worth trillions of dollars in lifetime revenues, or it could be a dud upon release that never gets full approval to operate on the streets. Likewise, an AR headset that no one wants to be seen wearing, or that proves difficult to wear through the day, could be a dead-on-arrival product.\nGiven the nature of these two products and the secrecy surrounding their development, one cannot truly assign a real risk rating to them. They're just things to be aware of. Apple does have a history of great execution (MacBook keyboard and Touch Bar aside), however, so an investor should feel at least somewhat comfortable that the company will put its best foot forward.\nFinal Thoughts\nAt a valuation nearing $3T one would assume there isn't much room left to run in Apple, but investors still stand to beat the overall market in this name thanks to excellent capital allocation.\nApple has $315B in authorized buybacks and returns some $14.5B in dividends each year. Apple will likely buyback close to $100B in stock during its 2022 fiscal year which, alone, represents a 3.7% return on today's prices. Combined with a dividend yield of 0.6%, investors will make 4.3% on this name through shareholder friendly practices alone.\nThose numbers will compound too, another $100B in 2023, $100B in 2024, it all adds up. That $300B is all authorized too.\nAlong with those buybacks and dividends, investors are buying into a company that, last year, defied laws of large numbers and grew its top-line at 33%. While unlikely this year, I still expect that the wearables and services divisions will grow at double digits which will allow Apple to see high single-digit revenue growth through the coming 3-5 years.\nThose with a bearish view on Apple act as though this juggernaut will vanish overnight, but that's simply not true. Sure, you're unlikely to pull down 30%+ annual returns going forward, but if you're looking for a high-quality stable business that can beat the market little-by-little, Apple is a great horse (or car) to back.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609770903,"gmtCreate":1638332301959,"gmtModify":1638337913045,"author":{"id":"3559733011538828","authorId":"3559733011538828","name":"1728fd41","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"unlikely... because Biden's&nbsp; party is afaving election next year.&nbsp; The Fed's tapering will only cause emerging markets to crash while US market will maintain its rosiness due to US Dollar's dominating position in the world.","listText":"unlikely... because Biden's&nbsp; party is afaving election next year.&nbsp; The Fed's tapering will only cause emerging markets to crash while US market will maintain its rosiness due to US Dollar's dominating position in the world.","text":"unlikely... because Biden's party is afaving election next year. The Fed's tapering will only cause emerging markets to crash while US market will maintain its rosiness due to US Dollar's dominating position in the world.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609770903","repostId":"1134775339","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134775339","pubTimestamp":1638325598,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134775339?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 10:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is a Stock Market Correction Coming? Here’s a Big Red Flag","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134775339","media":"Barrons","summary":"To say that the Omicron variant is shaking the market would be an understatement. But add that stock","content":"<p>To say that the Omicron variant is shaking the market would be an understatement. But add that stocks are more expensive than they’ve ever been—and a true correction now wouldn’t surprise anybody.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has fallen almost 3% from its all-time high hit in late November, just before scientists in South Africa reported the new Covid-19 strain. On Friday, the market had its worst day of the year. Tuesday was more ugliness—producers of vaccines and treatments predicted their remedies probably wouldn’t be as effective against Omicron as other variants.</p>\n<p>But that true correction—a 10% drop—has been elusive, even during all these months of the pandemic. And that itself is a bit astonishing, since corrections are often a normal part of a larger bull market.</p>\n<p>One indicator, though, forecasts a correction—like a dark cloud usually brings rain. The total U.S. equity market capitalization is about 215% of U.S. gross domestic product—the highest level ever, according to Global Financial Data.</p>\n<p>Such a high number isn’t good. It’s bad, often a sign that a correction is just around the corner</p>\n<p>In 1929, market cap to GDP hit an all-time high of about 100%, just before the famous stock market crash late that year. In 2000, another high at about 150%, just before a bear market—a drop of at least 20%—began. In 2008, a multiyear high, just ahead of the financial crisis.</p>\n<p>The upshot: Maybe a correction; then again, maybe not. It’s all in the hands of investors.</p>\n<p>To be sure, stock valuations aren’t known to be the best timing tool for investors deciding if they should do more buying or selling. Valuations can stay high for a long time.</p>\n<p>For most of the pandemic era, in fact, the market has been valued at its highest level relative to GDP ever. But high valuations do indicate that when—and if—the economic outlook really does deteriorate, stocks can fall really hard.</p>\n<p>“There is certainly the potential for additional market drops and heightened volatility in coming weeks as a result of this variant, especially given all the uncertainty surrounding it,” wrote Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “There is room for a decent correction.”</p>\n<p>What the market needs now is a little hope—that vaccines will be effective against the new variant. Otherwise, get ready for a correction.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is a Stock Market Correction Coming? Here’s a Big Red Flag</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs a Stock Market Correction Coming? Here’s a Big Red Flag\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 10:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-correction-51638305804?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>To say that the Omicron variant is shaking the market would be an understatement. But add that stocks are more expensive than they’ve ever been—and a true correction now wouldn’t surprise anybody.\nThe...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-correction-51638305804?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-correction-51638305804?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1134775339","content_text":"To say that the Omicron variant is shaking the market would be an understatement. But add that stocks are more expensive than they’ve ever been—and a true correction now wouldn’t surprise anybody.\nThe S&P 500 has fallen almost 3% from its all-time high hit in late November, just before scientists in South Africa reported the new Covid-19 strain. On Friday, the market had its worst day of the year. Tuesday was more ugliness—producers of vaccines and treatments predicted their remedies probably wouldn’t be as effective against Omicron as other variants.\nBut that true correction—a 10% drop—has been elusive, even during all these months of the pandemic. And that itself is a bit astonishing, since corrections are often a normal part of a larger bull market.\nOne indicator, though, forecasts a correction—like a dark cloud usually brings rain. The total U.S. equity market capitalization is about 215% of U.S. gross domestic product—the highest level ever, according to Global Financial Data.\nSuch a high number isn’t good. It’s bad, often a sign that a correction is just around the corner\nIn 1929, market cap to GDP hit an all-time high of about 100%, just before the famous stock market crash late that year. In 2000, another high at about 150%, just before a bear market—a drop of at least 20%—began. In 2008, a multiyear high, just ahead of the financial crisis.\nThe upshot: Maybe a correction; then again, maybe not. It’s all in the hands of investors.\nTo be sure, stock valuations aren’t known to be the best timing tool for investors deciding if they should do more buying or selling. Valuations can stay high for a long time.\nFor most of the pandemic era, in fact, the market has been valued at its highest level relative to GDP ever. But high valuations do indicate that when—and if—the economic outlook really does deteriorate, stocks can fall really hard.\n“There is certainly the potential for additional market drops and heightened volatility in coming weeks as a result of this variant, especially given all the uncertainty surrounding it,” wrote Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “There is room for a decent correction.”\nWhat the market needs now is a little hope—that vaccines will be effective against the new variant. Otherwise, get ready for a correction.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}