五星出东方的个人主页 - 老虎社区

五星出东方

五星出东方

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IP属地：北京

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0勋章

五星出东方

2022-07-30

$快狗打车(02246)$快狗打车这是亏成狗呀

五星出东方

2021-07-02

$零氪科技(LDOC)$我试驾过零氪汽车，是国产品牌的典范，新出的电动汽车极氪001很有潜力，值得狠狠申购！🙃

五星出东方

2021-06-30

$奈雪的茶(02150)$幸亏没中签

五星出东方

2021-06-30

$叮咚(DDL)$今儿要创造记录，上市第一天不开盘。叮咚上有没有卖韭菜的？

五星出东方

2021-06-29

$叮咚(DDL)$申购等死的节奏，今天必破发，为什么要申购？

五星出东方

2021-06-28

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$这两天再拉高就是准备要坑港股打新团

五星出东方

2021-06-28

也是破发的命

每日优鲜上市即破发模式相似的叮咚买菜慌了吗？

五星出东方

2021-06-28

我看每日和叮咚就是一丘之貉

每日优鲜破发了，叮咚买菜咋办？

五星出东方

2021-06-26

$每日优鲜(MF)$放心，叮咚买菜会含泪把每日优鲜拉过发行价的，要不自己铁定发行失败

五星出东方

2021-06-26

$每日优鲜(MF)$我靠！我想明白了，每日优鲜在导演一出阴谋，它破发暴跌，叮咚买菜没人申购会发行失败，打压竞争对手。每日优鲜虽然破发，但好歹发行成功了

五星出东方

2021-06-25

$每日优鲜(MF)$叮咚买菜得骂街，半斤八两的公司，叮咚估值快60亿美金，每日优鲜30亿还破发30%，叮咚上市直接退市行了

五星出东方

2021-06-25

$每日优鲜(MF)$就这竞价结果，没有比叮咚买菜更紧张的了，每日优鲜破发，叮咚买菜会被投资者全部撤销申购

五星出东方

2021-06-25

$每日优鲜(MF)$每日优鲜是一家主要卖水果蔬菜的即时电商，热销产品包括韭菜，很绿很新鲜

五星出东方

2021-06-25

祝梦想成真

@AMANDAYE:$每日优鲜(MF)$不要破发

五星出东方

2021-06-25

$亚朵酒店(ATAT)$这个酒店入住感觉良好！床品很舒适，客房格调也小资且富有文化气息，总之我很喜欢！但有一个问题，性价比感觉很好的东西，商家还能赚钱吗？换句话说，如果亚朵涨价了，它的这一切优点都会荡然无存。

五星出东方

2021-06-23

跟叮咚买菜死磕！跟丫死磕！

五星出东方

2021-06-23

$满帮(YMM)$还三个小时美股收盘

五星出东方

2021-06-23

$满帮(YMM)$麻拎儿吧！再不开盘再三个小时收盘了

五星出东方

2021-06-22

你给朕退下去了！

抱歉，原内容已删除

五星出东方

2021-06-22

对不起看错了，13.75是爱回收今天的价格

@五星出东方:$满帮(YMM)$13.75！

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19:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"每日优鲜上市即破发 模式相似的叮咚买菜慌了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146835406","media":"第一财经","summary":"抢占“生鲜电商第一股”后，每日优鲜上市即破发，今天盘前再跌6%。作为生鲜“第二股”，叮咚买菜将于29日上市，它能否有不一样的命运？","content":"<div>\n<p>抢占“生鲜电商第一股”后，每日优鲜上市即破发，今天盘前再跌6%。作为生鲜“第二股”，叮咚买菜将于29日上市，它能否有不一样的命运？（文章来源：第一财经）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202106281976404980.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>每日优鲜上市即破发 模式相似的叮咚买菜慌了吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n每日优鲜上市即破发 模式相似的叮咚买菜慌了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 19:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202106281976404980.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>抢占“生鲜电商第一股”后，每日优鲜上市即破发，今天盘前再跌6%。作为生鲜“第二股”，叮咚买菜将于29日上市，它能否有不一样的命运？（文章来源：第一财经）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202106281976404980.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604b5a8595b17f13ade7eb1901dcc75e","relate_stocks":{"MF":"每日优鲜","DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202106281976404980.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146835406","content_text":"抢占“生鲜电商第一股”后，每日优鲜上市即破发，今天盘前再跌6%。作为生鲜“第二股”，叮咚买菜将于29日上市，它能否有不一样的命运？（文章来源：第一财经）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127644621,"gmtCreate":1624848151963,"gmtModify":1624848151963,"author":{"id":"3559711043856510","authorId":"3559711043856510","name":"五星出东方","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f131755b020cda538eeab90f1410c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559711043856510","authorIdStr":"3559711043856510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我看每日和叮咚就是一丘之貉","listText":"我看每日和叮咚就是一丘之貉","text":"我看每日和叮咚就是一丘之貉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127644621","repostId":"2146803000","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2146803000","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624836910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2146803000?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 07:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"每日优鲜破发了，叮咚买菜咋办？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146803000","media":"虎嗅","summary":"同样做的生鲜零售前置仓，但内核完全不一样","content":"<html><body><p><span label=\"备注\">本文来自微信公众号：</span><span>爱思考的柚子（ID：gh_c899544adc0a）</span><span>，作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人，题图来自：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">每日优鲜</a>上市即破发25%，又逢叮咚买菜上市在即，这俩都是生鲜零售前置仓模式的典型代表，于是吃瓜群众不免要替叮咚买菜的股价捏把汗。</p><p>这把汗的确得捏。</p><p><strong>但严格来说，叮咚买菜和每日优鲜除了都做了前置仓，却并无拿来比较的意义。</strong></p><p>你要问为什么不该拿出来比较，逻辑很简单：每日优鲜一开始搞的是O2O卖水果，后来搞无人货架，现在又搞菜市场，每个业务都是追着资本风口搞，而且没一个业务干成。</p><p>生鲜零售是个脏活苦活累活，要一路从田间地头捋到终端销售<span label=\"备注\">（或者反之）</span>，讲的是一点点的抠细节练内功，你觉得靠这种不断追风口的玩法，除了证明每日优鲜战略失焦，前置仓这个活他们搞不定，还能论证出啥呢？</p><p>不得不说，投机感强了点。</p><p>每日优鲜上市前估值230亿元估值，上市第一天就跌到140亿元。看来美国的韭菜也不傻。</p><p>有客官要问了，那既然不适合跟每日优鲜对标，叮咚买菜的对标该是谁？</p><p>往近了看，是盒马。往远了看，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>收购的全食。</p><p label=\"大标题\">亚马逊为什么收全食？</p><p>对于中美零售行业而言，亚马逊收购全食，都是一个具有转折点意义的事件。</p><p>2017年6月16日，亚马逊宣布以每股42美元，合计137亿美元现金，收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFM\">全食超市</a><span label=\"备注\">（Whole Foods Market）</span>。而同时期其他主要美国零售企业，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>，市值却下跌了数百亿美金。</p><p>Amazon在独霸美国电商市场，推出独领风骚的Echo后，已经拥有了庞大的用户数据。但离成就零售霸主，Amazon还缺了人们消费金额和频次最高的板块——生鲜零售。而全食成为补齐最后一块短板的关键。</p><p>同一年，甚至早于亚马逊这起收购，马云则在云栖大会上首提新零售。其目标与Amazon贝索斯一样：将线下商超纳入电商帝国之中。</p><p>自此群雄并起，逐鹿中原。前置仓电商、O2O+商超、社区团购各种模式和名头满天飞。</p><p>在大家关注亚马逊电商+商超的联动意图时，却忽略了Amazon收购的全食是全球最大的有机食品商超，卖的是有机食品。</p><p><strong>Amazon此次收购的目的在于：围绕中产阶级收集完整的用户数据，更好地通过线上电商+线下商超，提供有品质的商品。</strong></p><p>其重点是抓住中产阶级的消费和数据，而线上和线下都是手段。</p><p>如果按这个维度筛选，中国市场上能与亚马逊收购之后的全食对标的合格的选手，就只剩下盒马与叮咚买菜了。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202106/27/221505826268.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"大标题\">中国生鲜消费升级是大势所趋</p><p>盒马和叮咚买菜瞄上的都是与全食消费人群类似的这批中国消费者。</p><p>全食创立于1980年，彼时的美国与2020年的中国极为类似。全食所代表的有机食品潮流出现的背景是，当时美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">新生</a>人口变少，人均GDP增加，新世代消费者对环境和品质更加看重。</p><ul><li><p>1980年美国人均GDP为1.2w美元，2020年中国则为1w美元，但中国有14个城市已经超过2w美元。</p></li><li><p>1980年美国人口增长率不断降低，至0.6%，中国2019年为0.4%。</p></li><li><p>1975年，气候变暖概念第一次被提出。中国刚刚制定了2030年碳达峰的宏伟目标。</p></li></ul><p>在这股消费升级的大浪潮下。1992-2008年，全食超市17年收入复合增速高达24%，而同期美国居民人均可支配收入增速1.9%，两者竟差出了12倍！全食的这个增速，也远超过同期沃尔玛和好市多的增速。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202106/27/221509889407.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">1992~2017年美国主要生鲜零售商的营业收入，注：全食为右坐标轴，沃尔玛和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">好市多</a>为左轴。</p><p>在中国，人均可支配收入的年增速高达10%，对有品质商品的需求与日俱增。按全食的比较，中国对生鲜消费升级的需求增速可能高达120%。而老的商超如永辉等，为了满足原有中老年客群，无法快速转型。</p><p><strong>可见，消费升级才是中国新零售们真正的大机会。</strong></p><p>然而，新零售面临时代给予的机会的同时，却也面临极大挑战。他们不再能像当年永辉一样，开一家店赚了钱，再开一家新店，就这样慢慢开，逐渐建立起规模。</p><p>如今，因为线上的投入太重，竞逐同一市场的玩家又很多，新零售赛道上的竞争压力太大。</p><p>永辉2010年IPO时，只需投资1.26亿到IT系统，主要是用在建机房+40个IT人。而叮咚买菜的拥有1320名IT开发人员，占到总员工的43%，2020年更是花了3.2亿元。</p><p>2010年时没有VC会投资商超，而2016年前后阿里和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>在新零售赛道投资上千亿元。</p><p>因此，对于中国新零售的创业者而言，必须要先以融资建立<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>的服务体系，做大规模，抢占市场。在此基础上，打磨好每个运营环节，再逐渐通过商品力打败竞争对手，实现盈利。</p><p>这意味着，前期大幅亏损难以避免。</p><p>2020年叮咚买菜和每日优鲜分别亏损31亿和16亿。2021年Q1美团优选<span label=\"备注\">（社区团购业务）</span>亏损高达80亿。据了解，2020年盒马亏损也在数十亿。</p><p label=\"大标题\">新零售竞争的关键要素是？</p><p>新零售的竞争，其实并不发生在拉新抢客的前端。</p><p>事实上，商品力才是实现盈利，决胜负的关键。</p><p>新零售的履约方式是，线上下单，半小时送货到家。线上是为了抓住年轻的消费族群，也是为了更好收集用户数据。但其物流成本却更高了。</p><p>超市是消费者到店，新零售是货到消费者家里，这一单光送货小哥的成本就要至少5元。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202106/27/221511205076.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p><strong>降低配送成本的关键就是要提高消费者客单价，客单价越高，市场费用和履约费用都可以等比下降，最终实现盈利。</strong></p><p>如下图。我们根据某家新零售的数据，模拟了不同场景。</p><ul><li><p>客单为52元时，经营利润是-14%。</p></li><li><p>客单为62元时，经营利润是-3%。</p></li><li><p>客单为78元时，经营利润是4%。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202106/27/221512153890.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p>如果对比每日优鲜和叮咚买菜，会发现每日优鲜的客单已经远超过了盈利所需的78元，仍巨额亏损25%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202106/27/221513337742.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p>但其实，每日优鲜将商品价格定价较高，然后给予客户大幅优惠，这部分优惠在毛利而不是销售额中，被扣减。导致其客单价格很高，而毛利率却非常低，只有12%。这让每日优鲜成为全世界生鲜零售毛利率最低的公司。<span label=\"备注\">（之前的低毛利王者是好市多，毛利率为13%。）</span></p><p>经过我们的调整估算，每日优鲜的真实客单价只有60元左右。</p><p><strong>想要提高消费者单次消费的客单价，靠同质化的商品显然做不到。</strong></p><p>设想一个消费者打开多家新零售的App页面，会发现页面布局和产品都非常雷同，此时消费者该如何选择呢？如果商品没有非常优秀，为什么消费者要在这家消费高金额？</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202106/27/221519484306.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">（从左往右分别是永辉、盒马、叮咚买菜）</p><p label=\"大标题\">商品力从何而来？ </p><p>然而，在中国，商品力的建立是复杂、长期的。</p><p>中国零售商一直依赖的社会公共的供应商资源，导致的问题是商品同质化严重。新零售商想要自建研发商品，并找工厂代工是非常困难的。</p><p>2020年疫情，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>在家，不得不自己下厨，由此预制菜赛道迅猛爆发，商品的定制产能得到极大释放，给了新零售建立自身商品能力的机会。</p><p>预制菜就是新零售大战当前阶段的一场关键性战役。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>的蜀海不但自建工厂，还推出了“首届中餐预制菜名厨邀请赛”，帮同业推广。西贝开始餐饮零售化，推出了“贾国龙功夫菜”，并在内蒙投资6亿兴建预制菜工厂。橙心优选与菌菇龙头企业雪榕合资，共同兴建生鲜加工厂，推出“只卖一头猪”的生鲜品牌。</p><p>在这股全社会产能投入的热潮下，叮咚买菜也快速推出自建的预制菜匹配“快手菜”，并投资6亿美金兴建自有工厂。2021年“快手菜”的SKU达到1000多，4月全国销售额过亿，5月份华东区销售额过亿。在华东区订单渗透率已超过30%。这意味着叮咚买菜每10个订单，3个都购买了“快手菜”。</p><p>相比其他商超、餐饮巨头这些线下出身的玩家，盒马和叮咚买菜等新零售最大的优势在于——积累了海量的消费大数据。通过大数据，结合最新消费者反馈，可以与预制菜工厂合作，快速试错，在100款中找到数款预制菜的爆款。</p><p>商品力不太容易定量的比较，但可以相对定性的去判断。</p><p>如一个夏季爆款，小龙虾。以前大家都是在外面餐厅吃，自2019年起，超市开始大规模销售冷冻小龙虾，但量不大，都是小品牌。小龙虾一件33元，2件59元。如果商品能打动消费者，客单价提高到78元就不是问题。2021年一场小龙虾大战，能反相验证出各家在商品力的一些单品上是否足够琢磨和用心。</p><p>2021年4月，叮咚买菜率先推出自有品牌 “拳击虾”，做了大量运营工作，一个多月，销售额破亿，引来其他家迅速跟进。</p><p>盒马除了现场门店制作的“盒马工坊”小龙虾外，今年也推出了对标的“加油虾”。</p><p>永辉则是推出了“永辉农场小龙虾”。问题是“永辉农场”还是菜和生肉的品牌。这玩意可不能和预制食品的品牌混用啊。</p><p>最令人迷惑的是每日优鲜，其自有品牌“爆料麻小”居然在网上做了很多评测和软文。卖小龙虾不是卖手机。消费者谁会为了买个小龙虾去网上搜测评？</p><p label=\"大标题\">再看看开店能力 </p><p>开店能力是盒马与叮咚买菜最大的区别。</p><p>国内消费者的需求一直很旺盛，但却未被很好满足。中国主要是精品超市在提供有品质的商品。如Ole、BHG等盈利不错，但却一直增长很慢，CAGR约11%。主要制约因素是中国城市人口密度大，精品超市需要的5000平米场地十分不容易找到，因此制约了其开店速度。</p><p>盒马在前期扩张时根据淘宝数据选址开店，据说有一半不好，之后盒马先后关闭了昆山、福州的店铺。更惨的是永辉，关闭了全部的超级物种。</p><p>相比而言，前置仓只需要十分之一面积，不需要有线下客流，不需要商用街铺。这些条件的宽松使得前置仓选址范围就大很多，试错成本也更低。这意味着前置仓比线下超市可以渗透到更多小区，也可以覆盖到更多消费者。</p><p>有客官质疑说，前置仓不是门店，无法像门店那般引流，这是先天缺陷。对此，我想强调的是，超市是不需要引流的业态，其核心主要靠复购，长期拼的是选品和价格。</p><p>举两个反例，盒马和永辉。他们都曾尝试mini店业态来覆盖更多社区，但由于运营模型差异很大而放弃。盒马将mini的股权都卖给大润发，永辉则关闭了560+mini店的绝大多数。</p><p>2021年Q1，叮咚买菜覆盖29个城市，开设了950个前置仓。2020年6月，盒马门店在21个城市，开设了227家门店。两者的开店速度，都遥遥领先于其他精品商超和同业。</p><p>从战略上，新零售做大规模，再通过商品力决一胜负。从业务上，新零售面对的是不断而来的艰巨挑战，如新冠疫情、融资、上市。每一场大战都是淘汰弱者，强者越强的过程。</p><p>想要笑到最后，像叮咚买菜这样亚马逊+全食的中国学徒，除了血要够厚<span label=\"备注\">（哪怕是融资输血）</span>，商品力要够强，余下的，就是持续优化改进零售的每一个细小齿轮使之越来越精密的咬合运作。</p><p>最终，<strong>新零售剑指的仍是在下游做宽消费人群基数，以销售势能反向影响改造上游供应链，并不断的向上游要效率、要品质、控成本</strong>。因此，即便亚马逊+全食从中产人群入局，最终仍意在改造整个生鲜业态的流通效率，乃至能溯源至田间地头改造蔬菜瓜果，这就需要在前端人群上做到更广泛的触达与覆盖。</p><p>新零售最终的想象力，不能只在中产之上。</p><p>这活儿，绝无一蹴而就的可能。拼的就是耐力，以及活下去。</p><p><span label=\"备注\">本文来自微信公众号：</span><span>爱思考的柚子（ID：gh_c899544adc0a）</span><span>，作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人</span></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>每日优鲜破发了，叮咚买菜咋办？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n每日优鲜破发了，叮咚买菜咋办？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 07:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/437454.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号：爱思考的柚子（ID：gh_c899544adc0a），作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人，题图来自：视觉中国每日优鲜上市即破发25%，又逢叮咚买菜上市在即，这俩都是生鲜零售前置仓模式的典型代表，于是吃瓜群众不免要替叮咚买菜的股价捏把汗。这把汗的确得捏。但严格来说，叮咚买菜和每日优鲜除了都做了前置仓，却并无拿来比较的意义。你要问为什么不该拿出来比较，逻辑很简单：每日优鲜一开始搞的是O2O卖...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/437454.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/cover/201809/06/173020957307.jpg?imageView2/1/w/720/h/405/|imageMogr2/strip/interlace/1/quality/85/format/jpg","relate_stocks":{"MF":"每日优鲜","DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/437454.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146803000","content_text":"本文来自微信公众号：爱思考的柚子（ID：gh_c899544adc0a），作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人，题图来自：视觉中国每日优鲜上市即破发25%，又逢叮咚买菜上市在即，这俩都是生鲜零售前置仓模式的典型代表，于是吃瓜群众不免要替叮咚买菜的股价捏把汗。这把汗的确得捏。但严格来说，叮咚买菜和每日优鲜除了都做了前置仓，却并无拿来比较的意义。你要问为什么不该拿出来比较，逻辑很简单：每日优鲜一开始搞的是O2O卖水果，后来搞无人货架，现在又搞菜市场，每个业务都是追着资本风口搞，而且没一个业务干成。生鲜零售是个脏活苦活累活，要一路从田间地头捋到终端销售（或者反之），讲的是一点点的抠细节练内功，你觉得靠这种不断追风口的玩法，除了证明每日优鲜战略失焦，前置仓这个活他们搞不定，还能论证出啥呢？不得不说，投机感强了点。每日优鲜上市前估值230亿元估值，上市第一天就跌到140亿元。看来美国的韭菜也不傻。有客官要问了，那既然不适合跟每日优鲜对标，叮咚买菜的对标该是谁？往近了看，是盒马。往远了看，是亚马逊收购的全食。亚马逊为什么收全食？对于中美零售行业而言，亚马逊收购全食，都是一个具有转折点意义的事件。2017年6月16日，亚马逊宣布以每股42美元，合计137亿美元现金，收购全食超市（Whole Foods Market）。而同时期其他主要美国零售企业，比如沃尔玛，市值却下跌了数百亿美金。Amazon在独霸美国电商市场，推出独领风骚的Echo后，已经拥有了庞大的用户数据。但离成就零售霸主，Amazon还缺了人们消费金额和频次最高的板块——生鲜零售。而全食成为补齐最后一块短板的关键。同一年，甚至早于亚马逊这起收购，马云则在云栖大会上首提新零售。其目标与Amazon贝索斯一样：将线下商超纳入电商帝国之中。自此群雄并起，逐鹿中原。前置仓电商、O2O+商超、社区团购各种模式和名头满天飞。在大家关注亚马逊电商+商超的联动意图时，却忽略了Amazon收购的全食是全球最大的有机食品商超，卖的是有机食品。Amazon此次收购的目的在于：围绕中产阶级收集完整的用户数据，更好地通过线上电商+线下商超，提供有品质的商品。其重点是抓住中产阶级的消费和数据，而线上和线下都是手段。如果按这个维度筛选，中国市场上能与亚马逊收购之后的全食对标的合格的选手，就只剩下盒马与叮咚买菜了。中国生鲜消费升级是大势所趋盒马和叮咚买菜瞄上的都是与全食消费人群类似的这批中国消费者。全食创立于1980年，彼时的美国与2020年的中国极为类似。全食所代表的有机食品潮流出现的背景是，当时美国新生人口变少，人均GDP增加，新世代消费者对环境和品质更加看重。1980年美国人均GDP为1.2w美元，2020年中国则为1w美元，但中国有14个城市已经超过2w美元。1980年美国人口增长率不断降低，至0.6%，中国2019年为0.4%。1975年，气候变暖概念第一次被提出。中国刚刚制定了2030年碳达峰的宏伟目标。在这股消费升级的大浪潮下。1992-2008年，全食超市17年收入复合增速高达24%，而同期美国居民人均可支配收入增速1.9%，两者竟差出了12倍！全食的这个增速，也远超过同期沃尔玛和好市多的增速。1992~2017年美国主要生鲜零售商的营业收入，注：全食为右坐标轴，沃尔玛和好市多为左轴。在中国，人均可支配收入的年增速高达10%，对有品质商品的需求与日俱增。按全食的比较，中国对生鲜消费升级的需求增速可能高达120%。而老的商超如永辉等，为了满足原有中老年客群，无法快速转型。可见，消费升级才是中国新零售们真正的大机会。然而，新零售面临时代给予的机会的同时，却也面临极大挑战。他们不再能像当年永辉一样，开一家店赚了钱，再开一家新店，就这样慢慢开，逐渐建立起规模。如今，因为线上的投入太重，竞逐同一市场的玩家又很多，新零售赛道上的竞争压力太大。永辉2010年IPO时，只需投资1.26亿到IT系统，主要是用在建机房+40个IT人。而叮咚买菜的拥有1320名IT开发人员，占到总员工的43%，2020年更是花了3.2亿元。2010年时没有VC会投资商超，而2016年前后阿里和腾讯在新零售赛道投资上千亿元。因此，对于中国新零售的创业者而言，必须要先以融资建立线上线下的服务体系，做大规模，抢占市场。在此基础上，打磨好每个运营环节，再逐渐通过商品力打败竞争对手，实现盈利。这意味着，前期大幅亏损难以避免。2020年叮咚买菜和每日优鲜分别亏损31亿和16亿。2021年Q1美团优选（社区团购业务）亏损高达80亿。据了解，2020年盒马亏损也在数十亿。新零售竞争的关键要素是？新零售的竞争，其实并不发生在拉新抢客的前端。事实上，商品力才是实现盈利，决胜负的关键。新零售的履约方式是，线上下单，半小时送货到家。线上是为了抓住年轻的消费族群，也是为了更好收集用户数据。但其物流成本却更高了。超市是消费者到店，新零售是货到消费者家里，这一单光送货小哥的成本就要至少5元。降低配送成本的关键就是要提高消费者客单价，客单价越高，市场费用和履约费用都可以等比下降，最终实现盈利。如下图。我们根据某家新零售的数据，模拟了不同场景。客单为52元时，经营利润是-14%。客单为62元时，经营利润是-3%。客单为78元时，经营利润是4%。如果对比每日优鲜和叮咚买菜，会发现每日优鲜的客单已经远超过了盈利所需的78元，仍巨额亏损25%。但其实，每日优鲜将商品价格定价较高，然后给予客户大幅优惠，这部分优惠在毛利而不是销售额中，被扣减。导致其客单价格很高，而毛利率却非常低，只有12%。这让每日优鲜成为全世界生鲜零售毛利率最低的公司。（之前的低毛利王者是好市多，毛利率为13%。）经过我们的调整估算，每日优鲜的真实客单价只有60元左右。想要提高消费者单次消费的客单价，靠同质化的商品显然做不到。设想一个消费者打开多家新零售的App页面，会发现页面布局和产品都非常雷同，此时消费者该如何选择呢？如果商品没有非常优秀，为什么消费者要在这家消费高金额？（从左往右分别是永辉、盒马、叮咚买菜）商品力从何而来？ 然而，在中国，商品力的建立是复杂、长期的。中国零售商一直依赖的社会公共的供应商资源，导致的问题是商品同质化严重。新零售商想要自建研发商品，并找工厂代工是非常困难的。2020年疫情，全民在家，不得不自己下厨，由此预制菜赛道迅猛爆发，商品的定制产能得到极大释放，给了新零售建立自身商品能力的机会。预制菜就是新零售大战当前阶段的一场关键性战役。海底捞的蜀海不但自建工厂，还推出了“首届中餐预制菜名厨邀请赛”，帮同业推广。西贝开始餐饮零售化，推出了“贾国龙功夫菜”，并在内蒙投资6亿兴建预制菜工厂。橙心优选与菌菇龙头企业雪榕合资，共同兴建生鲜加工厂，推出“只卖一头猪”的生鲜品牌。在这股全社会产能投入的热潮下，叮咚买菜也快速推出自建的预制菜匹配“快手菜”，并投资6亿美金兴建自有工厂。2021年“快手菜”的SKU达到1000多，4月全国销售额过亿，5月份华东区销售额过亿。在华东区订单渗透率已超过30%。这意味着叮咚买菜每10个订单，3个都购买了“快手菜”。相比其他商超、餐饮巨头这些线下出身的玩家，盒马和叮咚买菜等新零售最大的优势在于——积累了海量的消费大数据。通过大数据，结合最新消费者反馈，可以与预制菜工厂合作，快速试错，在100款中找到数款预制菜的爆款。商品力不太容易定量的比较，但可以相对定性的去判断。如一个夏季爆款，小龙虾。以前大家都是在外面餐厅吃，自2019年起，超市开始大规模销售冷冻小龙虾，但量不大，都是小品牌。小龙虾一件33元，2件59元。如果商品能打动消费者，客单价提高到78元就不是问题。2021年一场小龙虾大战，能反相验证出各家在商品力的一些单品上是否足够琢磨和用心。2021年4月，叮咚买菜率先推出自有品牌 “拳击虾”，做了大量运营工作，一个多月，销售额破亿，引来其他家迅速跟进。盒马除了现场门店制作的“盒马工坊”小龙虾外，今年也推出了对标的“加油虾”。永辉则是推出了“永辉农场小龙虾”。问题是“永辉农场”还是菜和生肉的品牌。这玩意可不能和预制食品的品牌混用啊。最令人迷惑的是每日优鲜，其自有品牌“爆料麻小”居然在网上做了很多评测和软文。卖小龙虾不是卖手机。消费者谁会为了买个小龙虾去网上搜测评？再看看开店能力 开店能力是盒马与叮咚买菜最大的区别。国内消费者的需求一直很旺盛，但却未被很好满足。中国主要是精品超市在提供有品质的商品。如Ole、BHG等盈利不错，但却一直增长很慢，CAGR约11%。主要制约因素是中国城市人口密度大，精品超市需要的5000平米场地十分不容易找到，因此制约了其开店速度。盒马在前期扩张时根据淘宝数据选址开店，据说有一半不好，之后盒马先后关闭了昆山、福州的店铺。更惨的是永辉，关闭了全部的超级物种。相比而言，前置仓只需要十分之一面积，不需要有线下客流，不需要商用街铺。这些条件的宽松使得前置仓选址范围就大很多，试错成本也更低。这意味着前置仓比线下超市可以渗透到更多小区，也可以覆盖到更多消费者。有客官质疑说，前置仓不是门店，无法像门店那般引流，这是先天缺陷。对此，我想强调的是，超市是不需要引流的业态，其核心主要靠复购，长期拼的是选品和价格。举两个反例，盒马和永辉。他们都曾尝试mini店业态来覆盖更多社区，但由于运营模型差异很大而放弃。盒马将mini的股权都卖给大润发，永辉则关闭了560+mini店的绝大多数。2021年Q1，叮咚买菜覆盖29个城市，开设了950个前置仓。2020年6月，盒马门店在21个城市，开设了227家门店。两者的开店速度，都遥遥领先于其他精品商超和同业。从战略上，新零售做大规模，再通过商品力决一胜负。从业务上，新零售面对的是不断而来的艰巨挑战，如新冠疫情、融资、上市。每一场大战都是淘汰弱者，强者越强的过程。想要笑到最后，像叮咚买菜这样亚马逊+全食的中国学徒，除了血要够厚（哪怕是融资输血），商品力要够强，余下的，就是持续优化改进零售的每一个细小齿轮使之越来越精密的咬合运作。最终，新零售剑指的仍是在下游做宽消费人群基数，以销售势能反向影响改造上游供应链，并不断的向上游要效率、要品质、控成本。因此，即便亚马逊+全食从中产人群入局，最终仍意在改造整个生鲜业态的流通效率，乃至能溯源至田间地头改造蔬菜瓜果，这就需要在前端人群上做到更广泛的触达与覆盖。新零售最终的想象力，不能只在中产之上。这活儿，绝无一蹴而就的可能。拼的就是耐力，以及活下去。本文来自微信公众号：爱思考的柚子（ID：gh_c899544adc0a），作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125906153,"gmtCreate":1624638992472,"gmtModify":1624638992472,"author":{"id":"3559711043856510","authorId":"3559711043856510","name":"五星出东方","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f131755b020cda538eeab90f1410c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559711043856510","authorIdStr":"3559711043856510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">$爱回收(RERE)$</a>上市要黄？连新股都发不下来了？","text":"$爱回收(RERE)$上市要黄？连新股都发不下来了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166475902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125080794,"gmtCreate":1624636725918,"gmtModify":1624636725918,"author":{"id":"3559711043856510","authorId":"3559711043856510","name":"五星出东方","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f131755b020cda538eeab90f1410c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559711043856510","authorIdStr":"3559711043856510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>叮咚买菜得骂街，半斤八两的公司，叮咚估值快60亿美金，每日优鲜30亿还破发30%，叮咚上市直接退市行了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>叮咚买菜得骂街，半斤八两的公司，叮咚估值快60亿美金，每日优鲜30亿还破发30%，叮咚上市直接退市行了","text":"$每日优鲜(MF)$叮咚买菜得骂街，半斤八两的公司，叮咚估值快60亿美金，每日优鲜30亿还破发30%，叮咚上市直接退市行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125080794","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129612375,"gmtCreate":1624370785697,"gmtModify":1624370785697,"author":{"id":"3559711043856510","authorId":"3559711043856510","name":"五星出东方","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f131755b020cda538eeab90f1410c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559711043856510","authorIdStr":"3559711043856510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>别刷中签信息啦！有个鸟用！那个能看L2盘前交易数据的大神出来一分钟播报一次","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>别刷中签信息啦！有个鸟用！那个能看L2盘前交易数据的大神出来一分钟播报一次","text":"$满帮(YMM)$别刷中签信息啦！有个鸟用！那个能看L2盘前交易数据的大神出来一分钟播报一次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129612375","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180952906,"gmtCreate":1623171674205,"gmtModify":1623171674205,"author":{"id":"3559711043856510","authorId":"3559711043856510","name":"五星出东方","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f131755b020cda538eeab90f1410c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559711043856510","authorIdStr":"3559711043856510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">$掌门教育(ZME)$</a>知乎水滴这种行业龙头全破发，反而是没人申购的冷门股都能开盘涨50%","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">$掌门教育(ZME)$</a>知乎水滴这种行业龙头全破发，反而是没人申购的冷门股都能开盘涨50%","text":"$掌门教育(ZME)$知乎水滴这种行业龙头全破发，反而是没人申购的冷门股都能开盘涨50%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180952906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329769495,"gmtCreate":1615281401617,"gmtModify":1703486679759,"author":{"id":"3559711043856510","authorId":"3559711043856510","name":"五星出东方","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f131755b020cda538eeab90f1410c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559711043856510","authorIdStr":"3559711043856510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我是三个账户一手申购，三个账户都中了，稳稳的赔钱","listText":"我是三个账户一手申购，三个账户都中了，稳稳的赔钱","text":"我是三个账户一手申购，三个账户都中了，稳稳的赔钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329769495","repostId":"1191877089","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191877089","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615255397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191877089?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 10:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"朝云集团一手中签率50%，认购30手稳中一手","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191877089","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月9日，$朝云集团$发布公告，发售价已厘定为每股发售股份9.20港元，公开发售部分超购172.32倍，一手中签率50%，认购30手稳中一手。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：。乙组头需申购60万股，所需资金约558万元，稳中28手。以零售额计，截至2019年，朝云集团在中国驱蚊杀虫市场连续五年位居第一，于2019年在儿童适用驱蚊杀虫市场也位居市场份额第一，成为绝对龙头。","content":"<p>3月9日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06601\">朝云集团</a>发布公告，发售价已厘定为每股发售股份9.20港元，公开发售部分超购172.32倍，一手中签率50%，认购30手稳中一手。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e55589338b5fc265e4c30c36694dd5a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>甲组认购倍数125.23倍，认购30手稳中一手。</p><p>乙组头需申购60万股，所需资金约558万元，稳中28手（14000股）。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5021ad7bb181ed30570d5d8520b2774b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"794\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a297676ae2d367bb5986e8864bcb04bd\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>前景解析</b></p><p>朝云集团是立白集团控股的家居护理企业，旗下拥有“超威”、“贝贝健”、“威王”、“润之素”、“西兰”、“家居”、“DUX德是”、“ 倔强的尾巴” 七个知名品牌，主要产品涵盖杀虫驱蚊、居家清洁、空气护理、智能家居工具、宠物护理等多个领域。其中，公司的驱蚊产品销量领先。</p><p>一般情况下，“报价博弈”往往是投资者基于所掌握的信息，对企业估值形成合理的预期和判断的过程，上限定价代表公司IPO受到市场广泛追捧，意味着其新股发行价格更充分地贴近和回归自身价值。大幅超额认购同理，主要反映投资者对公司价值的认可程度。也无一例外地向外表明，市场对朝云集团的发展前景持乐观态度。</p><p>首先，宏观角度来看，从早前提出的“双循环”战略，到近期政治局会议明确的“需求侧改革”（即消费升级+消费扩容），扩内需促消费逐步成为一个中长期的发展方向。且中国拥有超14亿人口，内部消费市场兼具深度及宽度，共同为消费行业的发展奠基优质基础，因此本土消费品品牌崛起会是必然之势。</p><p>具体到日化行业，日用消费品天然具有刚需、高频等特点，市场空间足够广阔，而行业集中度、低线城市渗透率均有待提升，无疑存在孵化本土日化龙头的良好条件。叠加“扩内需促消费”带来的加速发展契机，已具备产品与渠道优势的头部企业势必率先受益，打开长远、巨大的发展空间，可谓崛起正当时。</p><p>遵循这一逻辑，朝云集团“高增速+高上限+高确定性”的未来发展预期，也逐渐明朗。</p><p><b>1、多品牌多品类战略布局，已拉动业绩出现显著增长</b></p><p>招股书显示，朝云集团是中国领先的一站式多品类家居护理、个人护理及宠护护理平台，旗下拥有威王、超威、贝贝健、西兰、润之素、倔强的尾巴及德是七大品牌，并在各细分领域中占据领先地位。</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f31ec088fc3f74ad0bbabe817c0aa8\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(来源：招股书)</p><p>以零售额计，截至2019年，朝云集团在中国驱蚊杀虫市场连续五年位居第一，于2019年在儿童适用驱蚊杀虫市场也位居市场份额第一，成为绝对龙头。同时，公司在家居清洁及空气护理市场位列第二，在个人护理行业中，花露水市场位列前三，全新推出的洗手液品类也在上市9个月内跃居细分品类领先地位；宠物品牌“倔强的尾巴”品牌上市4个月内，便已成为天猫宠物香水除味类目的第一品牌。</p><p>至2020年，朝云集团前期积累的产品成效得到集中释放，顺利拉动公司整体业绩显著增长。同年前3季度，公司录得营业收入14.61亿元，同比增长16.9%；经调整纯利2.41亿元，同比增长30.7%。家居清洁及个人护理板块收入分别同比增长29.7%及69.2%。</p><p>消费升级背景下，消费者对产品端的要求只会越来越高，消费品品牌的商业嗅觉和自我迭代能力愈发对自身发展起到至关作用。朝云集团前瞻性地开启多品牌多品类战略，并经由市场验证迅速取得成效，侧面展现公司强势的产品力与商品力，充分匹配行业消费升级的发展趋势。</p><p><b>2、全渠道优势突出，迎来“消费扩容”的时代机遇</b></p><p>渠道方面，朝云集团展现出突出的全渠道铺排、运营能力，实现线下线上双渠道增长。</p><p>线上而言，朝云集团自2018年开始布局，仅1年时间从单一渠道拓展到14个自营店铺，合共20多个渠道，并在自此以来的连续两年中实现超过100%增长。线下而言，截至2020年3季度末，朝云集团已拥有超过1200家线下经销商，约62万个销售网点，48名大客户，以及覆盖国内所有省份、所有地级市的11000个零售网点，全面渗透1至5线城市。</p><p>当前，中国低线城市（三线及以下城市及地区）的日化产品需求增速迅猛，朝云集团渠道优势充分显现，提前把握细分市场机遇，通过持续深耕创造更多增量。</p><p>具体举例来看，据灼识咨询，2019年至2024年，家居护理市场的低线市场规模预计将以9.2%的复合年增长率增至395.42亿元。低线市场规模的增速明显快于一线、二线城市，且预计2024年将占到整个市场规模的57%左右。同时看到，同期间内，一线、二线及低线城市中，洗手液品类的市场规模预计分别以13.4%、24.5%及27.0%的复合年增长率增长；宠物护理品类的市场规模预计分别以16.5%、18.4%及20.7%的复合年增长率增长。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b214bb71e3b59bdc15d19548fecfd246\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(来源：灼识咨询)</p><p>显而易见的是，低线城市是极具挖掘潜力、推动日化行业进一步发展，也是影响日化消费品品牌最终竞争格局的关键市场。</p><p>此外，还了解到，朝云集团在宠物护理领域告捷后，还将在2021年全面进军千亿级宠物蓝海市场。</p><p>综合来看，朝云集团的消费目标群体有望持续扩大，一方面得益于所处细分市场“消费扩容”的时代机遇，一方面得益于其自身不断“开疆拓土”，切入更多、更具想象力的细分市场。叠加上文提到朝云集团兼具强势的产品力与商品力等，有充分的理由预期，朝云集团正在加速打造成为“中国版<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>”，其发展潜能还将不断释放。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朝云集团一手中签率50%，认购30手稳中一手</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朝云集团一手中签率50%，认购30手稳中一手\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-09 10:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月9日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06601\">朝云集团</a>发布公告，发售价已厘定为每股发售股份9.20港元，公开发售部分超购172.32倍，一手中签率50%，认购30手稳中一手。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e55589338b5fc265e4c30c36694dd5a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>甲组认购倍数125.23倍，认购30手稳中一手。</p><p>乙组头需申购60万股，所需资金约558万元，稳中28手（14000股）。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5021ad7bb181ed30570d5d8520b2774b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"794\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a297676ae2d367bb5986e8864bcb04bd\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>前景解析</b></p><p>朝云集团是立白集团控股的家居护理企业，旗下拥有“超威”、“贝贝健”、“威王”、“润之素”、“西兰”、“家居”、“DUX德是”、“ 倔强的尾巴” 七个知名品牌，主要产品涵盖杀虫驱蚊、居家清洁、空气护理、智能家居工具、宠物护理等多个领域。其中，公司的驱蚊产品销量领先。</p><p>一般情况下，“报价博弈”往往是投资者基于所掌握的信息，对企业估值形成合理的预期和判断的过程，上限定价代表公司IPO受到市场广泛追捧，意味着其新股发行价格更充分地贴近和回归自身价值。大幅超额认购同理，主要反映投资者对公司价值的认可程度。也无一例外地向外表明，市场对朝云集团的发展前景持乐观态度。</p><p>首先，宏观角度来看，从早前提出的“双循环”战略，到近期政治局会议明确的“需求侧改革”（即消费升级+消费扩容），扩内需促消费逐步成为一个中长期的发展方向。且中国拥有超14亿人口，内部消费市场兼具深度及宽度，共同为消费行业的发展奠基优质基础，因此本土消费品品牌崛起会是必然之势。</p><p>具体到日化行业，日用消费品天然具有刚需、高频等特点，市场空间足够广阔，而行业集中度、低线城市渗透率均有待提升，无疑存在孵化本土日化龙头的良好条件。叠加“扩内需促消费”带来的加速发展契机，已具备产品与渠道优势的头部企业势必率先受益，打开长远、巨大的发展空间，可谓崛起正当时。</p><p>遵循这一逻辑，朝云集团“高增速+高上限+高确定性”的未来发展预期，也逐渐明朗。</p><p><b>1、多品牌多品类战略布局，已拉动业绩出现显著增长</b></p><p>招股书显示，朝云集团是中国领先的一站式多品类家居护理、个人护理及宠护护理平台，旗下拥有威王、超威、贝贝健、西兰、润之素、倔强的尾巴及德是七大品牌，并在各细分领域中占据领先地位。</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f31ec088fc3f74ad0bbabe817c0aa8\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(来源：招股书)</p><p>以零售额计，截至2019年，朝云集团在中国驱蚊杀虫市场连续五年位居第一，于2019年在儿童适用驱蚊杀虫市场也位居市场份额第一，成为绝对龙头。同时，公司在家居清洁及空气护理市场位列第二，在个人护理行业中，花露水市场位列前三，全新推出的洗手液品类也在上市9个月内跃居细分品类领先地位；宠物品牌“倔强的尾巴”品牌上市4个月内，便已成为天猫宠物香水除味类目的第一品牌。</p><p>至2020年，朝云集团前期积累的产品成效得到集中释放，顺利拉动公司整体业绩显著增长。同年前3季度，公司录得营业收入14.61亿元，同比增长16.9%；经调整纯利2.41亿元，同比增长30.7%。家居清洁及个人护理板块收入分别同比增长29.7%及69.2%。</p><p>消费升级背景下，消费者对产品端的要求只会越来越高，消费品品牌的商业嗅觉和自我迭代能力愈发对自身发展起到至关作用。朝云集团前瞻性地开启多品牌多品类战略，并经由市场验证迅速取得成效，侧面展现公司强势的产品力与商品力，充分匹配行业消费升级的发展趋势。</p><p><b>2、全渠道优势突出，迎来“消费扩容”的时代机遇</b></p><p>渠道方面，朝云集团展现出突出的全渠道铺排、运营能力，实现线下线上双渠道增长。</p><p>线上而言，朝云集团自2018年开始布局，仅1年时间从单一渠道拓展到14个自营店铺，合共20多个渠道，并在自此以来的连续两年中实现超过100%增长。线下而言，截至2020年3季度末，朝云集团已拥有超过1200家线下经销商，约62万个销售网点，48名大客户，以及覆盖国内所有省份、所有地级市的11000个零售网点，全面渗透1至5线城市。</p><p>当前，中国低线城市（三线及以下城市及地区）的日化产品需求增速迅猛，朝云集团渠道优势充分显现，提前把握细分市场机遇，通过持续深耕创造更多增量。</p><p>具体举例来看，据灼识咨询，2019年至2024年，家居护理市场的低线市场规模预计将以9.2%的复合年增长率增至395.42亿元。低线市场规模的增速明显快于一线、二线城市，且预计2024年将占到整个市场规模的57%左右。同时看到，同期间内，一线、二线及低线城市中，洗手液品类的市场规模预计分别以13.4%、24.5%及27.0%的复合年增长率增长；宠物护理品类的市场规模预计分别以16.5%、18.4%及20.7%的复合年增长率增长。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b214bb71e3b59bdc15d19548fecfd246\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(来源：灼识咨询)</p><p>显而易见的是，低线城市是极具挖掘潜力、推动日化行业进一步发展，也是影响日化消费品品牌最终竞争格局的关键市场。</p><p>此外，还了解到，朝云集团在宠物护理领域告捷后，还将在2021年全面进军千亿级宠物蓝海市场。</p><p>综合来看，朝云集团的消费目标群体有望持续扩大，一方面得益于所处细分市场“消费扩容”的时代机遇，一方面得益于其自身不断“开疆拓土”，切入更多、更具想象力的细分市场。叠加上文提到朝云集团兼具强势的产品力与商品力等，有充分的理由预期，朝云集团正在加速打造成为“中国版<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>”，其发展潜能还将不断释放。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fc3716db3df12d73bd3c695a8b0dd52","relate_stocks":{"06601":"朝云集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191877089","content_text":"3月9日，朝云集团发布公告，发售价已厘定为每股发售股份9.20港元，公开发售部分超购172.32倍，一手中签率50%，认购30手稳中一手。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：甲组认购倍数125.23倍，认购30手稳中一手。乙组头需申购60万股，所需资金约558万元，稳中28手（14000股）。前景解析朝云集团是立白集团控股的家居护理企业，旗下拥有“超威”、“贝贝健”、“威王”、“润之素”、“西兰”、“家居”、“DUX德是”、“ 倔强的尾巴” 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