我心飞翔_9417的个人主页 - 老虎社区

我心飞翔_9417

我心飞翔_9417

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我心飞翔_9417

2021-11-18

$Sono Group N.V.(SEV)$不看好。官网说汽车由瑞典的NEVS代工，这个公司被恒大收购了，现在恒大债务危机要再次出售，自身难保。

我心飞翔_9417

2021-11-07

危言耸听！

最大的黑天鹅来了！

我心飞翔_9417

2021-11-07

危言耸听

抱歉，原内容已删除

我心飞翔_9417

2021-10-15

$默沙东(MRK)$就没人讨论这个股票吗？为什么跌跌不休

我心飞翔_9417

2021-09-17

$标普500ETF(SPY)$今天是除权日，除权日股价有什么影响呢？

我心飞翔_9417

2021-09-13

$Hepion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(HEPA)$真是垃圾股，所谓利好都是利空

我心飞翔_9417

2020-10-12

$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$大盘涨它就是不涨

我心飞翔_9417

2020-10-09

$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$垃圾。有利好都不涨

我心飞翔_9417

2020-10-07

$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$大盘涨它竟然跌

我心飞翔_9417

2020-10-06

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$为什么跌这么多

我心飞翔_9417

2020-10-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$太考验心脏了。超低超到半山腰

我心飞翔_9417

2020-09-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这算什么情况？横盘这么久，也不涨也不跌

我心飞翔_9417

2020-09-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$交易量怎么这么低

我心飞翔_9417

2020-09-24

$Sunworks, Inc.(SUNW)$这股太刺激了，太考验心脏了，过山车

我心飞翔_9417

2020-09-17

$康迪车业(KNDI)$有没有高位被套的

我心飞翔_9417

2020-09-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天成交额低，是机构资金没大量进来吗

我心飞翔_9417

2020-09-14

$英伟达(NVDA)$这么重要的信息老虎竟然没有推送

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SEV\">$Sono Group N.V.(SEV)$</a>不看好。官网说汽车由瑞典的NEVS代工，这个公司被恒大收购了，现在恒大债务危机要再次出售，自身难保。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SEV\">$Sono Group N.V.(SEV)$</a>不看好。官网说汽车由瑞典的NEVS代工，这个公司被恒大收购了，现在恒大债务危机要再次出售，自身难保。","text":"$Sono Group N.V.(SEV)$不看好。官网说汽车由瑞典的NEVS代工，这个公司被恒大收购了，现在恒大债务危机要再次出售，自身难保。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878516424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845316097,"gmtCreate":1636282503019,"gmtModify":1636282503019,"author":{"id":"3558084492045438","authorId":"3558084492045438","name":"我心飞翔_9417","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7538943cac4e0ac359cc35c215c9f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558084492045438","authorIdStr":"3558084492045438"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"危言耸听！","listText":"危言耸听！","text":"危言耸听！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845316097","repostId":"2181740184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2181740184","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1636271108,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2181740184?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-07 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"最大的黑天鹅来了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2181740184","media":"美股研究社","summary":"又到了周末和大家见面的时候，经历了无脑上涨的一周，TFAANMG七大巨头的躺赢组合涨到让人怀疑人生，似乎已经没有什么可以阻挡美股的上涨了，但平静之下暗潮汹涌。特斯拉下周会跌多少，对大盘影响有多大，伽马挤压失败之后，特斯拉的股价会如何波动，这些都是未知数，所以眼下已经成为未来一周最大的黑天鹅。","content":"<p>又到了周末和大家见面的时候，经历了无脑上涨的一周，TFAANMG七大巨头的躺赢组合涨到让人怀疑人生，似乎已经没有什么可以阻挡美股的上涨了，但平静之下暗潮汹涌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/818c33112ef945268f7261c7197d96dc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>周末一大早起来，一个重磅消息彻底刷屏，那就是马斯克在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>上发起投票，计划卖出10%的流通股，差不多230亿美元的股票，这本身不是什么大事，但可能引发的连锁反应却不得不令我们重视。</p>\n<p>首先，我们要回到上一周的文章，当时我对10月的预测进行了复盘，「<b>在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。我们的预测为什么错了？因为错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅</b>」。</p>\n<p>这段话对下面的分析相当重要，大家清楚的明白一件事，美股之所以在10月能够突破箱体，很大程度上依靠的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>两家公司的异常上涨，其中涨幅高达43.65%的特斯拉可以说居功至伟。机构给出的数据则显示，「<b>整个10月，只有9%的基金跑赢了大盘</b>」，原因主要是因为基金在9月就开始减持特斯拉，由此可见特斯拉对整个市场的影响。</p>\n<p>现在马斯克规模不小的卖出股票，那就必须值得我们重视起来了。马斯克为什么卖？这主要是因为美国计划对超级富豪征税，美国参议院民主党议员已经提议对亿万富翁未实现的资产收益征税，并提议额外向收入超过1000万美元的富人加征3%的附加税。</p>\n<p>马斯克的资产增值大多数来自股票收益，以前的美国只要你不卖出股票，政府是没办法向你征税的，现在美国政府很缺钱，准备对超级富豪开打，要对未实现的资产收益征税，那马斯克自然是压力相当大，毕竟枪打出头鸟，谁让你是宇宙首富，所以卖出股票在预期之内。</p>\n<p>如果真是这个原因，那长期的影响恐怕不会太小。因为超级科技巨头的高管们在过去一年财富都疯狂增值，翻个几倍的人比比皆是，一旦真的要开始对未实现的资产收益征税，那这些人恐怕都要和马斯克一样卖出一些股票，那对估值本就相当昂贵的美股来说，恐怕不是什么好消息。</p>\n<p>特斯拉当前每天成交额在300~500亿美元区间波动，但大多数都是机器算法的日内高频交易，实际上是净买盘可能没那么多，这230亿美元的抛售对特斯拉的股价势必造成不小的压力。毕竟市值1.2万亿美元的特斯拉，到底有多少机构愿意在这个价位接盘，这是一个非常大的不确定性因素。</p>\n<p>当然这些并不是最吓人的，我们知道特斯拉最近的上涨并不是因为基本面的改善，也不是空头平仓，而更多是来自伽马挤压。机构买入大量的看涨期权，期权做市商必须要买入相应的正股，这就会推动股价上涨，股价一涨，散户就会纷纷追涨，然后就会有更多人买看涨期权，最后逼迫期权做市商买更多的正股，进而推动股价继续暴涨，这就是所谓的伽马挤压。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99e2f91e19b44c88cd49aa2b8c2c5ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>伽马挤压到了一定阶段，期权做市商会不断上调期权的隐含波动率，让期权交易变得无利可图，最后机构不再买入看涨期权，相信大家最近也发现了一件事，特斯拉的看涨期权越来越赚不到钱了。以前正股涨3个点轻松翻几倍，现在正股涨5个点，特斯拉的看涨期权都不一定能翻倍。</p>\n<p>力的作用是相互的，伽马挤压从来都是双向的，当正向的伽马挤压失败之后，就会出现反向的伽马挤压。股价跌，引发机构买看跌期权对冲，期权做市商需要卖出股票对冲，进一步引发股票下跌，然后散户也疯狂卖，进一步引发机构买看跌期权对冲，期权做市场要卖更多的股票对冲，最后所有人都变成股票的净卖方，股价会在极短的时间引发巨大的抛售（一般超过20%）。</p>\n<p>特斯拉下周会跌多少，对大盘影响有多大，伽马挤压失败之后，特斯拉的股价会如何波动，这些都是未知数，所以眼下已经成为未来一周最大的黑天鹅。特斯拉是所有高Beta股票的龙头，一旦龙头真的暴跌，那对整个市场的情绪相信不是什么好事。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeb5549572742cc83ea8f481819ebc5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903b5bc53b87465f936c50a66575c2b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉对大盘的影响，暂时分析到这。我们还是回到大盘上来，上一周三大股指纷纷暴涨，道指单周收涨1.42%，纳指单周收涨3.05%，标普单周上涨2.02%，创下了自1980年以来最佳11月第一周表现。标普500指数连续7天创历史新高，上一次出现类似的行情，那是1955年、1964年、1965年、1995年和1997年，由此可见现在的市场有多么疯狂。</p>\n<p>纳斯达克指数连续第 10 天和连续第 5 周创下历史新高，自去年 3月份以来，我们还没有在纳斯达克指数中看到如此多的新高，股指的不断新高，对长期的走势肯定是好事，因为打开了向上的空间，但短期是不是得稍微休息一下，才显得比较合理呢？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f9de6f407048fb83a8c41db437ede8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>再看一个数据，标普500指数的席勒市盈率，希勒市盈率只在经济危机之后才有用。因为用了十年平均值，而经济危机之后企业利润会极速回落，这时候普通市盈率就会很奇怪。而十年平均值就不会。这个数据应该是当前最夸张的，自2000年以来的首次突破40，反映出当前美股的泡沫基本到一个很大的水平了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e429cbc7a30e4d5680d8f8733bc255a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9410f6580c5448e9b7c43c7131e0189f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"737\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>另外就是纳斯达克100指数的市销率，当前是已经创下了历史新高，估值的上涨远远跑赢了业绩的上涨。纳斯达克在经历连续暴涨之后，再一次突破了布林线上上轨，过去五年只出现过两次，一次是2018年1月，一次是2020年8月，随后大盘都出现了10%左右的回调。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0458b4b1a74ff99976ffa71dad820e\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>当然，我们没必要太过担心，毕竟美联储还在继续放水，按照历史走势去看，11月11日左右美股可能会开始一段季节性的调整，然后到12月再开始加速往上冲刺。</p>\n<p>做好准备，应对波动，等待时机！</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>最大的黑天鹅来了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最大的黑天鹅来了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-07 15:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>又到了周末和大家见面的时候，经历了无脑上涨的一周，TFAANMG七大巨头的躺赢组合涨到让人怀疑人生，似乎已经没有什么可以阻挡美股的上涨了，但平静之下暗潮汹涌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/818c33112ef945268f7261c7197d96dc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>周末一大早起来，一个重磅消息彻底刷屏，那就是马斯克在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>上发起投票，计划卖出10%的流通股，差不多230亿美元的股票，这本身不是什么大事，但可能引发的连锁反应却不得不令我们重视。</p>\n<p>首先，我们要回到上一周的文章，当时我对10月的预测进行了复盘，「<b>在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。我们的预测为什么错了？因为错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅</b>」。</p>\n<p>这段话对下面的分析相当重要，大家清楚的明白一件事，美股之所以在10月能够突破箱体，很大程度上依靠的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>两家公司的异常上涨，其中涨幅高达43.65%的特斯拉可以说居功至伟。机构给出的数据则显示，「<b>整个10月，只有9%的基金跑赢了大盘</b>」，原因主要是因为基金在9月就开始减持特斯拉，由此可见特斯拉对整个市场的影响。</p>\n<p>现在马斯克规模不小的卖出股票，那就必须值得我们重视起来了。马斯克为什么卖？这主要是因为美国计划对超级富豪征税，美国参议院民主党议员已经提议对亿万富翁未实现的资产收益征税，并提议额外向收入超过1000万美元的富人加征3%的附加税。</p>\n<p>马斯克的资产增值大多数来自股票收益，以前的美国只要你不卖出股票，政府是没办法向你征税的，现在美国政府很缺钱，准备对超级富豪开打，要对未实现的资产收益征税，那马斯克自然是压力相当大，毕竟枪打出头鸟，谁让你是宇宙首富，所以卖出股票在预期之内。</p>\n<p>如果真是这个原因，那长期的影响恐怕不会太小。因为超级科技巨头的高管们在过去一年财富都疯狂增值，翻个几倍的人比比皆是，一旦真的要开始对未实现的资产收益征税，那这些人恐怕都要和马斯克一样卖出一些股票，那对估值本就相当昂贵的美股来说，恐怕不是什么好消息。</p>\n<p>特斯拉当前每天成交额在300~500亿美元区间波动，但大多数都是机器算法的日内高频交易，实际上是净买盘可能没那么多，这230亿美元的抛售对特斯拉的股价势必造成不小的压力。毕竟市值1.2万亿美元的特斯拉，到底有多少机构愿意在这个价位接盘，这是一个非常大的不确定性因素。</p>\n<p>当然这些并不是最吓人的，我们知道特斯拉最近的上涨并不是因为基本面的改善，也不是空头平仓，而更多是来自伽马挤压。机构买入大量的看涨期权，期权做市商必须要买入相应的正股，这就会推动股价上涨，股价一涨，散户就会纷纷追涨，然后就会有更多人买看涨期权，最后逼迫期权做市商买更多的正股，进而推动股价继续暴涨，这就是所谓的伽马挤压。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99e2f91e19b44c88cd49aa2b8c2c5ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>伽马挤压到了一定阶段，期权做市商会不断上调期权的隐含波动率，让期权交易变得无利可图，最后机构不再买入看涨期权，相信大家最近也发现了一件事，特斯拉的看涨期权越来越赚不到钱了。以前正股涨3个点轻松翻几倍，现在正股涨5个点，特斯拉的看涨期权都不一定能翻倍。</p>\n<p>力的作用是相互的，伽马挤压从来都是双向的，当正向的伽马挤压失败之后，就会出现反向的伽马挤压。股价跌，引发机构买看跌期权对冲，期权做市商需要卖出股票对冲，进一步引发股票下跌，然后散户也疯狂卖，进一步引发机构买看跌期权对冲，期权做市场要卖更多的股票对冲，最后所有人都变成股票的净卖方，股价会在极短的时间引发巨大的抛售（一般超过20%）。</p>\n<p>特斯拉下周会跌多少，对大盘影响有多大，伽马挤压失败之后，特斯拉的股价会如何波动，这些都是未知数，所以眼下已经成为未来一周最大的黑天鹅。特斯拉是所有高Beta股票的龙头，一旦龙头真的暴跌，那对整个市场的情绪相信不是什么好事。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeb5549572742cc83ea8f481819ebc5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903b5bc53b87465f936c50a66575c2b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉对大盘的影响，暂时分析到这。我们还是回到大盘上来，上一周三大股指纷纷暴涨，道指单周收涨1.42%，纳指单周收涨3.05%，标普单周上涨2.02%，创下了自1980年以来最佳11月第一周表现。标普500指数连续7天创历史新高，上一次出现类似的行情，那是1955年、1964年、1965年、1995年和1997年，由此可见现在的市场有多么疯狂。</p>\n<p>纳斯达克指数连续第 10 天和连续第 5 周创下历史新高，自去年 3月份以来，我们还没有在纳斯达克指数中看到如此多的新高，股指的不断新高，对长期的走势肯定是好事，因为打开了向上的空间，但短期是不是得稍微休息一下，才显得比较合理呢？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f9de6f407048fb83a8c41db437ede8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>再看一个数据，标普500指数的席勒市盈率，希勒市盈率只在经济危机之后才有用。因为用了十年平均值，而经济危机之后企业利润会极速回落，这时候普通市盈率就会很奇怪。而十年平均值就不会。这个数据应该是当前最夸张的，自2000年以来的首次突破40，反映出当前美股的泡沫基本到一个很大的水平了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e429cbc7a30e4d5680d8f8733bc255a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9410f6580c5448e9b7c43c7131e0189f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"737\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>另外就是纳斯达克100指数的市销率，当前是已经创下了历史新高，估值的上涨远远跑赢了业绩的上涨。纳斯达克在经历连续暴涨之后，再一次突破了布林线上上轨，过去五年只出现过两次，一次是2018年1月，一次是2020年8月，随后大盘都出现了10%左右的回调。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0458b4b1a74ff99976ffa71dad820e\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>当然，我们没必要太过担心，毕竟美联储还在继续放水，按照历史走势去看，11月11日左右美股可能会开始一段季节性的调整，然后到12月再开始加速往上冲刺。</p>\n<p>做好准备，应对波动，等待时机！</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2181740184","content_text":"又到了周末和大家见面的时候，经历了无脑上涨的一周，TFAANMG七大巨头的躺赢组合涨到让人怀疑人生，似乎已经没有什么可以阻挡美股的上涨了，但平静之下暗潮汹涌。\n\n周末一大早起来，一个重磅消息彻底刷屏，那就是马斯克在Twitter上发起投票，计划卖出10%的流通股，差不多230亿美元的股票，这本身不是什么大事，但可能引发的连锁反应却不得不令我们重视。\n首先，我们要回到上一周的文章，当时我对10月的预测进行了复盘，「在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。我们的预测为什么错了？因为错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅」。\n这段话对下面的分析相当重要，大家清楚的明白一件事，美股之所以在10月能够突破箱体，很大程度上依靠的是特斯拉和英伟达两家公司的异常上涨，其中涨幅高达43.65%的特斯拉可以说居功至伟。机构给出的数据则显示，「整个10月，只有9%的基金跑赢了大盘」，原因主要是因为基金在9月就开始减持特斯拉，由此可见特斯拉对整个市场的影响。\n现在马斯克规模不小的卖出股票，那就必须值得我们重视起来了。马斯克为什么卖？这主要是因为美国计划对超级富豪征税，美国参议院民主党议员已经提议对亿万富翁未实现的资产收益征税，并提议额外向收入超过1000万美元的富人加征3%的附加税。\n马斯克的资产增值大多数来自股票收益，以前的美国只要你不卖出股票，政府是没办法向你征税的，现在美国政府很缺钱，准备对超级富豪开打，要对未实现的资产收益征税，那马斯克自然是压力相当大，毕竟枪打出头鸟，谁让你是宇宙首富，所以卖出股票在预期之内。\n如果真是这个原因，那长期的影响恐怕不会太小。因为超级科技巨头的高管们在过去一年财富都疯狂增值，翻个几倍的人比比皆是，一旦真的要开始对未实现的资产收益征税，那这些人恐怕都要和马斯克一样卖出一些股票，那对估值本就相当昂贵的美股来说，恐怕不是什么好消息。\n特斯拉当前每天成交额在300~500亿美元区间波动，但大多数都是机器算法的日内高频交易，实际上是净买盘可能没那么多，这230亿美元的抛售对特斯拉的股价势必造成不小的压力。毕竟市值1.2万亿美元的特斯拉，到底有多少机构愿意在这个价位接盘，这是一个非常大的不确定性因素。\n当然这些并不是最吓人的，我们知道特斯拉最近的上涨并不是因为基本面的改善，也不是空头平仓，而更多是来自伽马挤压。机构买入大量的看涨期权，期权做市商必须要买入相应的正股，这就会推动股价上涨，股价一涨，散户就会纷纷追涨，然后就会有更多人买看涨期权，最后逼迫期权做市商买更多的正股，进而推动股价继续暴涨，这就是所谓的伽马挤压。\n\n伽马挤压到了一定阶段，期权做市商会不断上调期权的隐含波动率，让期权交易变得无利可图，最后机构不再买入看涨期权，相信大家最近也发现了一件事，特斯拉的看涨期权越来越赚不到钱了。以前正股涨3个点轻松翻几倍，现在正股涨5个点，特斯拉的看涨期权都不一定能翻倍。\n力的作用是相互的，伽马挤压从来都是双向的，当正向的伽马挤压失败之后，就会出现反向的伽马挤压。股价跌，引发机构买看跌期权对冲，期权做市商需要卖出股票对冲，进一步引发股票下跌，然后散户也疯狂卖，进一步引发机构买看跌期权对冲，期权做市场要卖更多的股票对冲，最后所有人都变成股票的净卖方，股价会在极短的时间引发巨大的抛售（一般超过20%）。\n特斯拉下周会跌多少，对大盘影响有多大，伽马挤压失败之后，特斯拉的股价会如何波动，这些都是未知数，所以眼下已经成为未来一周最大的黑天鹅。特斯拉是所有高Beta股票的龙头，一旦龙头真的暴跌，那对整个市场的情绪相信不是什么好事。\n\n\n特斯拉对大盘的影响，暂时分析到这。我们还是回到大盘上来，上一周三大股指纷纷暴涨，道指单周收涨1.42%，纳指单周收涨3.05%，标普单周上涨2.02%，创下了自1980年以来最佳11月第一周表现。标普500指数连续7天创历史新高，上一次出现类似的行情，那是1955年、1964年、1965年、1995年和1997年，由此可见现在的市场有多么疯狂。\n纳斯达克指数连续第 10 天和连续第 5 周创下历史新高，自去年 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