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心想事成ljx

01-23

$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$ 3亿多股盘太大了[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

心想事成ljx

2021-06-16

$AMC院线(AMC)$继续看多 80左右

心想事成ljx

02-13

$Beamr Imaging(BMR)$ 5块入18卖不敢在买了[捂脸]

心想事成ljx

2021-06-26

$Orphazyme A/S(ORPH)$有希望

心想事成ljx

02-12

$Beamr Imaging(BMR)$ 10跑不掉

心想事成ljx

2021-06-17

$Orphazyme A/S(ORPH)$冲啊

心想事成ljx

2021-06-11

$AMC院线(AMC)$这就对了嘛看多60左右

心想事成ljx

05-13

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 又是不不眠夜

心想事成ljx

06-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

马斯克剧透新一代FSD硬件平台：4nm工艺，算力10倍提升

心想事成ljx

2021-06-12

$AMC院线(AMC)$继续看多

心想事成ljx

02-08

一直停牌怎么玩[捂脸]

心想事成ljx

01-26

$Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc.(CRBP)$ 牛批

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23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克剧透新一代FSD硬件平台：4nm工艺，算力10倍提升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199422668","media":"智能车参考","summary":"最直接的是开启智能汽车、自动驾驶的算力军备竞赛。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>放核弹之前，马斯克搞了一次小小的“试爆”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020a2fde49a85f0dff3a5b9018657b9f\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚透露了特斯拉下一代车载计算平台的信息：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不叫HW5.0，直接改名叫AI5。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">能耗提升5倍，算力提升10倍。</p><h2 id=\"id_1335176169\" style=\"text-align: start;\">为啥不叫HW5.0？有啥提升</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">HW其实就是Hardware的缩写，字面上自动驾驶系统硬件的意思。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这应该是早期马斯克直接把内部工程项目的代号拿来当产品名称了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">创业阶段初出茅庐，这样搞挺好，凸显特斯拉技术宅、工程师基因。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57fad413e2211c6404de5eded6444e79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但现在特斯拉家大业大，全球智能车行业都在模仿和试图超越，再这么随意，好像也不太合适。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">于是马斯克宣布，我们改名啦，新一代自动驾驶硬件平台，名字就叫——<strong>AI5</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这属于是自动驾驶第一性原理命名法了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">老马透露的相关信息还有这些：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先是算力比现款HW4.0提升10倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次是功耗整体提高4-5倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年下半年推出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有这么几个点值得留意。算力方面，马斯克特别提到整个平台的算力大概是HW4.0的10倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563122a489b238642d6298c2300f5721\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其实特斯拉从未明确公布过HW4.0的具体数据，只是说是HW3.0的5倍（国内三方资料中的750TOPS数据无官方证实），所以根据已知信息和国外发烧友的实机拆解测试，大概可以推测出HW4.0的算力在300TOPS-500TOPS之间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是单颗FSD芯片200多TOPS算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这样计算，AI5整个平台算力可能达到3000-5000TOPS。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个数据是十分恐怖的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前国内的TOP玩家，比如华为、小鹏等等，支撑无图、轻图城市NOA功能的算力平台，不过就在400-500TOPS左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“芯皇”英伟达Thor，顶配才2000多TOPS，而且业内已经有很多意见认为量产车并不需要如此过剩的算力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e914a3d189b461f3f0ad986450913a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克到底是在“放卫星”提振外界对特斯拉的信心，还是真的对自动驾驶技术范式做出了革命性变革，是个很大的悬念和看点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二个值得留意的是能耗方面。马斯克提到五代硬件平台，整体能耗比HW4.0提升4-5倍，相比于10倍的性能提升，其实证明特斯拉自动驾驶软硬结合能力更进一步，能耗控制更合理了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还要补充一点，车载计算芯片和手机计算芯片的不同之一，就是可以无后顾之忧的打“富裕仗”，不必过于把能耗、尺寸作为衡量优劣的指标。车载计算平台的散热条件，天然也比PC、手机优良得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毕竟电动车的电池容量远大于手机，而且就算芯片能耗再高，相比于电机、空调等等，也只能算零头。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一点容易被忽略，马斯克说AI5是“特斯拉最新一代计算平台”，但是严谨地说，特斯拉的业务就仅仅只有汽车吗？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3baf3c68884e951010b9af938eca0e12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以这也是大部分网友推测的依据：AI5很可能并不是专门为FSD准备，如此高的算力，匹配的可能是今年8月即将发布的特斯拉Robotaxi、人形机器人Optimus，以及未来支持L4、L5的特斯拉车型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也许那个时候的特斯拉产品，真的会取消驾驶舱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过也有用户提了一个很尖锐的问题：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">之前HW3.0面世时，马斯克就拍胸脯保证可以实现无监督的FSD功能，但显然是鸽了。直到今天的HW4.0仍然不行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5就一定可以吗？</p><h2 id=\"id_4270955727\" style=\"text-align: start;\">AI5会带来什么样的改变？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在已知的信息并不多，只有一点是较为确定的，AI5由三星代工，4nm工艺。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b096f8ae693705251f9891e17079a70a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最早特斯拉曾表示过100%给台积电代工，不过后来马斯克和三星高层见了一面后，又改了最初的决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据说是三星给马斯克开了一个“没法拒绝”的优惠价格，而且先进制程的良品率提升到70%多，和台积电相差不多了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以可以基本肯定，AI5仍然会采用基于Exynos-IP的内核。Exynos-IP是三星基于ARM构架设计的自有IP，谷歌的手机也用过。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2019年三星因为和高通合作，就停止了相关工作，不过Exynos-IP设计非常超前，基本上近似于目前ARM Cortex X系列的旗舰X3的设计，所以2020年之后才开始设计的HW4.0，经国外特斯拉爆料大神Greentheonly拆解发现，仍然采用了Exynos-IP。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5很可能延续这个路线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，今时不同往日，自动驾驶算法的技术范式已经发生了深刻变革，从最初的CNN为为主的模块化网络结构，转变为以Transformer为主的端到端一体化网络。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004d3de6fcf7516e6d738a3653a91d12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">外界通常更加关心自动驾驶芯片的NPU算力，这本身没错，大模型时代，当然需要更强的AI计算能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但对于自动驾驶任务来说，光NPU变强还不够，AI处理器的速度再快，算力再高，如果90%的时间都是在等内存搬运数据，那也是白搭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CNN时代外置CPU足以配合好AI处理器，但到了Transformer，CPU反而成了瓶颈，内置成了最佳选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">实际上，HW4.0就是添加了一个CPU以应对Transformer，刚好和特斯拉超算芯片Dojo的D1架构原理相同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也就解释了马斯克在剧透AI5的同时，还特意强调了<strong>HW4.0不是直接退役，而是拿去构建训练集群</strong>（和英伟达A100同时服役）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以特斯拉对于下一代计算平台AI5的安排和带来的影响，大概也能推测一二了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deaa7fac10cfaa2efe12408e313ef53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5的超大算力，极大可能不是单一芯片或双芯片实现，而是多个下一代4nm FSD芯片组合的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果真是单颗/双颗芯片数千TOPS算力，成本就会到几乎无法量产，不是汽车工业也不是科技行业的玩法。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也就说明，AI5很有可能是一个平台方案，根据任务、场景、产品成本要求不同，“丰俭由马斯克”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最复杂的人形机器人，可能会用到数千TOPS算力，Robotaxi可能就会低一点。相应的，特斯拉量产车可能会更低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于完全无监督的FSD在车端到底需要多大算力支持，可能马斯克自己现在也不清楚，仍在摸索中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f62ac69f9f879287b43d4f18138be05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“端到端”最合理最高效的模式，到底是全部AI模型化，做成一个大黑盒，还是有条件的、逐步一体化，业内也没有定论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5最终体现在特斯拉量产车的算力有多大，不好判断，但肯定大于现在的四五百TOPS。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以AI5带来的冲击和影响，最直接的是<strong>开启智能汽车、自动驾驶的算力军备竞赛</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全行业玩家在这样的竞赛过程中，逐渐就会明确端到端自动驾驶的实现基本前提和门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">L4也是同样，AI5在特斯拉的Robotaxi上的探索和试错，作用也相当于量产车，那就是给Robotaxi的落地打造出一个样板：多大算力、什么样的方案配置、多少成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更重要的，是特斯拉身体力行为所有“AGI”玩家打样：需要什么样的技术体系，底层通用平台如何打造，云端终端的架构分别怎么选择…</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1611665793971","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克剧透新一代FSD硬件平台：4nm工艺，算力10倍提升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克剧透新一代FSD硬件平台：4nm工艺，算力10倍提升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 23:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzOTE3Nzc5MA==&mid=2247529854&idx=2&sn=af93f8c9610ea372f0fcc9c8f5bff704&chksm=c3e673a7c2c455addcca87fa5650bd3081268ea70535a6e709fac78549d6330ffef9e4b54b11&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd><strong>智能车参考</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>放核弹之前，马斯克搞了一次小小的“试爆”。刚刚透露了特斯拉下一代车载计算平台的信息：不叫HW5.0，直接改名叫AI5。能耗提升5倍，算力提升10倍。为啥不叫HW5.0？有啥提升HW其实就是Hardware的缩写，字面上自动驾驶系统硬件的意思。这应该是早期马斯克直接把内部工程项目的代号拿来当产品名称了。创业阶段初出茅庐，这样搞挺好，凸显特斯拉技术宅、工程师基因。但现在特斯拉家大业大，全球智能车行业都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzOTE3Nzc5MA==&mid=2247529854&idx=2&sn=af93f8c9610ea372f0fcc9c8f5bff704&chksm=c3e673a7c2c455addcca87fa5650bd3081268ea70535a6e709fac78549d6330ffef9e4b54b11&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75856ca600aa7110c9cdf0d842b9cef3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzOTE3Nzc5MA==&mid=2247529854&idx=2&sn=af93f8c9610ea372f0fcc9c8f5bff704&chksm=c3e673a7c2c455addcca87fa5650bd3081268ea70535a6e709fac78549d6330ffef9e4b54b11&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199422668","content_text":"放核弹之前，马斯克搞了一次小小的“试爆”。刚刚透露了特斯拉下一代车载计算平台的信息：不叫HW5.0，直接改名叫AI5。能耗提升5倍，算力提升10倍。为啥不叫HW5.0？有啥提升HW其实就是Hardware的缩写，字面上自动驾驶系统硬件的意思。这应该是早期马斯克直接把内部工程项目的代号拿来当产品名称了。创业阶段初出茅庐，这样搞挺好，凸显特斯拉技术宅、工程师基因。但现在特斯拉家大业大，全球智能车行业都在模仿和试图超越，再这么随意，好像也不太合适。于是马斯克宣布，我们改名啦，新一代自动驾驶硬件平台，名字就叫——AI5。这属于是自动驾驶第一性原理命名法了。老马透露的相关信息还有这些：首先是算力比现款HW4.0提升10倍。其次是功耗整体提高4-5倍。2025年下半年推出。有这么几个点值得留意。算力方面，马斯克特别提到整个平台的算力大概是HW4.0的10倍。其实特斯拉从未明确公布过HW4.0的具体数据，只是说是HW3.0的5倍（国内三方资料中的750TOPS数据无官方证实），所以根据已知信息和国外发烧友的实机拆解测试，大概可以推测出HW4.0的算力在300TOPS-500TOPS之间。也就是单颗FSD芯片200多TOPS算力。这样计算，AI5整个平台算力可能达到3000-5000TOPS。这个数据是十分恐怖的。目前国内的TOP玩家，比如华为、小鹏等等，支撑无图、轻图城市NOA功能的算力平台，不过就在400-500TOPS左右。“芯皇”英伟达Thor，顶配才2000多TOPS，而且业内已经有很多意见认为量产车并不需要如此过剩的算力。马斯克到底是在“放卫星”提振外界对特斯拉的信心，还是真的对自动驾驶技术范式做出了革命性变革，是个很大的悬念和看点。第二个值得留意的是能耗方面。马斯克提到五代硬件平台，整体能耗比HW4.0提升4-5倍，相比于10倍的性能提升，其实证明特斯拉自动驾驶软硬结合能力更进一步，能耗控制更合理了。还要补充一点，车载计算芯片和手机计算芯片的不同之一，就是可以无后顾之忧的打“富裕仗”，不必过于把能耗、尺寸作为衡量优劣的指标。车载计算平台的散热条件，天然也比PC、手机优良得多。毕竟电动车的电池容量远大于手机，而且就算芯片能耗再高，相比于电机、空调等等，也只能算零头。还有一点容易被忽略，马斯克说AI5是“特斯拉最新一代计算平台”，但是严谨地说，特斯拉的业务就仅仅只有汽车吗？所以这也是大部分网友推测的依据：AI5很可能并不是专门为FSD准备，如此高的算力，匹配的可能是今年8月即将发布的特斯拉Robotaxi、人形机器人Optimus，以及未来支持L4、L5的特斯拉车型。也许那个时候的特斯拉产品，真的会取消驾驶舱。不过也有用户提了一个很尖锐的问题：之前HW3.0面世时，马斯克就拍胸脯保证可以实现无监督的FSD功能，但显然是鸽了。直到今天的HW4.0仍然不行。AI5就一定可以吗？AI5会带来什么样的改变？现在已知的信息并不多，只有一点是较为确定的，AI5由三星代工，4nm工艺。最早特斯拉曾表示过100%给台积电代工，不过后来马斯克和三星高层见了一面后，又改了最初的决定。据说是三星给马斯克开了一个“没法拒绝”的优惠价格，而且先进制程的良品率提升到70%多，和台积电相差不多了。所以可以基本肯定，AI5仍然会采用基于Exynos-IP的内核。Exynos-IP是三星基于ARM构架设计的自有IP，谷歌的手机也用过。2019年三星因为和高通合作，就停止了相关工作，不过Exynos-IP设计非常超前，基本上近似于目前ARM Cortex X系列的旗舰X3的设计，所以2020年之后才开始设计的HW4.0，经国外特斯拉爆料大神Greentheonly拆解发现，仍然采用了Exynos-IP。AI5很可能延续这个路线。当然，今时不同往日，自动驾驶算法的技术范式已经发生了深刻变革，从最初的CNN为为主的模块化网络结构，转变为以Transformer为主的端到端一体化网络。外界通常更加关心自动驾驶芯片的NPU算力，这本身没错，大模型时代，当然需要更强的AI计算能力。但对于自动驾驶任务来说，光NPU变强还不够，AI处理器的速度再快，算力再高，如果90%的时间都是在等内存搬运数据，那也是白搭。CNN时代外置CPU足以配合好AI处理器，但到了Transformer，CPU反而成了瓶颈，内置成了最佳选择。实际上，HW4.0就是添加了一个CPU以应对Transformer，刚好和特斯拉超算芯片Dojo的D1架构原理相同。这也就解释了马斯克在剧透AI5的同时，还特意强调了HW4.0不是直接退役，而是拿去构建训练集群（和英伟达A100同时服役）。所以特斯拉对于下一代计算平台AI5的安排和带来的影响，大概也能推测一二了。AI5的超大算力，极大可能不是单一芯片或双芯片实现，而是多个下一代4nm FSD芯片组合的结果。如果真是单颗/双颗芯片数千TOPS算力，成本就会到几乎无法量产，不是汽车工业也不是科技行业的玩法。这也就说明，AI5很有可能是一个平台方案，根据任务、场景、产品成本要求不同，“丰俭由马斯克”。最复杂的人形机器人，可能会用到数千TOPS算力，Robotaxi可能就会低一点。相应的，特斯拉量产车可能会更低。至于完全无监督的FSD在车端到底需要多大算力支持，可能马斯克自己现在也不清楚，仍在摸索中。“端到端”最合理最高效的模式，到底是全部AI模型化，做成一个大黑盒，还是有条件的、逐步一体化，业内也没有定论。AI5最终体现在特斯拉量产车的算力有多大，不好判断，但肯定大于现在的四五百TOPS。所以AI5带来的冲击和影响，最直接的是开启智能汽车、自动驾驶的算力军备竞赛。全行业玩家在这样的竞赛过程中，逐渐就会明确端到端自动驾驶的实现基本前提和门槛。L4也是同样，AI5在特斯拉的Robotaxi上的探索和试错，作用也相当于量产车，那就是给Robotaxi的落地打造出一个样板：多大算力、什么样的方案配置、多少成本。更重要的，是特斯拉身体力行为所有“AGI”玩家打样：需要什么样的技术体系，底层通用平台如何打造，云端终端的架构分别怎么选择…","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305452707156256,"gmtCreate":1715608050820,"gmtModify":1715608052125,"author":{"id":"3555510537311432","authorId":"3555510537311432","name":"心想事成ljx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555510537311432","authorIdStr":"3555510537311432"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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23:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克剧透新一代FSD硬件平台：4nm工艺，算力10倍提升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199422668","media":"智能车参考","summary":"最直接的是开启智能汽车、自动驾驶的算力军备竞赛。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>放核弹之前，马斯克搞了一次小小的“试爆”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020a2fde49a85f0dff3a5b9018657b9f\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚透露了特斯拉下一代车载计算平台的信息：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不叫HW5.0，直接改名叫AI5。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">能耗提升5倍，算力提升10倍。</p><h2 id=\"id_1335176169\" style=\"text-align: start;\">为啥不叫HW5.0？有啥提升</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">HW其实就是Hardware的缩写，字面上自动驾驶系统硬件的意思。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这应该是早期马斯克直接把内部工程项目的代号拿来当产品名称了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">创业阶段初出茅庐，这样搞挺好，凸显特斯拉技术宅、工程师基因。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57fad413e2211c6404de5eded6444e79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但现在特斯拉家大业大，全球智能车行业都在模仿和试图超越，再这么随意，好像也不太合适。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">于是马斯克宣布，我们改名啦，新一代自动驾驶硬件平台，名字就叫——<strong>AI5</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这属于是自动驾驶第一性原理命名法了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">老马透露的相关信息还有这些：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先是算力比现款HW4.0提升10倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次是功耗整体提高4-5倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年下半年推出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有这么几个点值得留意。算力方面，马斯克特别提到整个平台的算力大概是HW4.0的10倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563122a489b238642d6298c2300f5721\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其实特斯拉从未明确公布过HW4.0的具体数据，只是说是HW3.0的5倍（国内三方资料中的750TOPS数据无官方证实），所以根据已知信息和国外发烧友的实机拆解测试，大概可以推测出HW4.0的算力在300TOPS-500TOPS之间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是单颗FSD芯片200多TOPS算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这样计算，AI5整个平台算力可能达到3000-5000TOPS。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个数据是十分恐怖的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前国内的TOP玩家，比如华为、小鹏等等，支撑无图、轻图城市NOA功能的算力平台，不过就在400-500TOPS左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“芯皇”英伟达Thor，顶配才2000多TOPS，而且业内已经有很多意见认为量产车并不需要如此过剩的算力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e914a3d189b461f3f0ad986450913a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克到底是在“放卫星”提振外界对特斯拉的信心，还是真的对自动驾驶技术范式做出了革命性变革，是个很大的悬念和看点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二个值得留意的是能耗方面。马斯克提到五代硬件平台，整体能耗比HW4.0提升4-5倍，相比于10倍的性能提升，其实证明特斯拉自动驾驶软硬结合能力更进一步，能耗控制更合理了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还要补充一点，车载计算芯片和手机计算芯片的不同之一，就是可以无后顾之忧的打“富裕仗”，不必过于把能耗、尺寸作为衡量优劣的指标。车载计算平台的散热条件，天然也比PC、手机优良得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毕竟电动车的电池容量远大于手机，而且就算芯片能耗再高，相比于电机、空调等等，也只能算零头。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一点容易被忽略，马斯克说AI5是“特斯拉最新一代计算平台”，但是严谨地说，特斯拉的业务就仅仅只有汽车吗？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3baf3c68884e951010b9af938eca0e12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以这也是大部分网友推测的依据：AI5很可能并不是专门为FSD准备，如此高的算力，匹配的可能是今年8月即将发布的特斯拉Robotaxi、人形机器人Optimus，以及未来支持L4、L5的特斯拉车型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也许那个时候的特斯拉产品，真的会取消驾驶舱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过也有用户提了一个很尖锐的问题：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">之前HW3.0面世时，马斯克就拍胸脯保证可以实现无监督的FSD功能，但显然是鸽了。直到今天的HW4.0仍然不行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5就一定可以吗？</p><h2 id=\"id_4270955727\" style=\"text-align: start;\">AI5会带来什么样的改变？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在已知的信息并不多，只有一点是较为确定的，AI5由三星代工，4nm工艺。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b096f8ae693705251f9891e17079a70a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最早特斯拉曾表示过100%给台积电代工，不过后来马斯克和三星高层见了一面后，又改了最初的决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据说是三星给马斯克开了一个“没法拒绝”的优惠价格，而且先进制程的良品率提升到70%多，和台积电相差不多了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以可以基本肯定，AI5仍然会采用基于Exynos-IP的内核。Exynos-IP是三星基于ARM构架设计的自有IP，谷歌的手机也用过。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2019年三星因为和高通合作，就停止了相关工作，不过Exynos-IP设计非常超前，基本上近似于目前ARM Cortex X系列的旗舰X3的设计，所以2020年之后才开始设计的HW4.0，经国外特斯拉爆料大神Greentheonly拆解发现，仍然采用了Exynos-IP。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5很可能延续这个路线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，今时不同往日，自动驾驶算法的技术范式已经发生了深刻变革，从最初的CNN为为主的模块化网络结构，转变为以Transformer为主的端到端一体化网络。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004d3de6fcf7516e6d738a3653a91d12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">外界通常更加关心自动驾驶芯片的NPU算力，这本身没错，大模型时代，当然需要更强的AI计算能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但对于自动驾驶任务来说，光NPU变强还不够，AI处理器的速度再快，算力再高，如果90%的时间都是在等内存搬运数据，那也是白搭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CNN时代外置CPU足以配合好AI处理器，但到了Transformer，CPU反而成了瓶颈，内置成了最佳选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">实际上，HW4.0就是添加了一个CPU以应对Transformer，刚好和特斯拉超算芯片Dojo的D1架构原理相同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也就解释了马斯克在剧透AI5的同时，还特意强调了<strong>HW4.0不是直接退役，而是拿去构建训练集群</strong>（和英伟达A100同时服役）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以特斯拉对于下一代计算平台AI5的安排和带来的影响，大概也能推测一二了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deaa7fac10cfaa2efe12408e313ef53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5的超大算力，极大可能不是单一芯片或双芯片实现，而是多个下一代4nm FSD芯片组合的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果真是单颗/双颗芯片数千TOPS算力，成本就会到几乎无法量产，不是汽车工业也不是科技行业的玩法。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也就说明，AI5很有可能是一个平台方案，根据任务、场景、产品成本要求不同，“丰俭由马斯克”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最复杂的人形机器人，可能会用到数千TOPS算力，Robotaxi可能就会低一点。相应的，特斯拉量产车可能会更低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于完全无监督的FSD在车端到底需要多大算力支持，可能马斯克自己现在也不清楚，仍在摸索中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f62ac69f9f879287b43d4f18138be05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“端到端”最合理最高效的模式，到底是全部AI模型化，做成一个大黑盒，还是有条件的、逐步一体化，业内也没有定论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI5最终体现在特斯拉量产车的算力有多大，不好判断，但肯定大于现在的四五百TOPS。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以AI5带来的冲击和影响，最直接的是<strong>开启智能汽车、自动驾驶的算力军备竞赛</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全行业玩家在这样的竞赛过程中，逐渐就会明确端到端自动驾驶的实现基本前提和门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">L4也是同样，AI5在特斯拉的Robotaxi上的探索和试错，作用也相当于量产车，那就是给Robotaxi的落地打造出一个样板：多大算力、什么样的方案配置、多少成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更重要的，是特斯拉身体力行为所有“AGI”玩家打样：需要什么样的技术体系，底层通用平台如何打造，云端终端的架构分别怎么选择…</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1611665793971","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克剧透新一代FSD硬件平台：4nm工艺，算力10倍提升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克剧透新一代FSD硬件平台：4nm工艺，算力10倍提升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 23:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzOTE3Nzc5MA==&mid=2247529854&idx=2&sn=af93f8c9610ea372f0fcc9c8f5bff704&chksm=c3e673a7c2c455addcca87fa5650bd3081268ea70535a6e709fac78549d6330ffef9e4b54b11&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd><strong>智能车参考</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>放核弹之前，马斯克搞了一次小小的“试爆”。刚刚透露了特斯拉下一代车载计算平台的信息：不叫HW5.0，直接改名叫AI5。能耗提升5倍，算力提升10倍。为啥不叫HW5.0？有啥提升HW其实就是Hardware的缩写，字面上自动驾驶系统硬件的意思。这应该是早期马斯克直接把内部工程项目的代号拿来当产品名称了。创业阶段初出茅庐，这样搞挺好，凸显特斯拉技术宅、工程师基因。但现在特斯拉家大业大，全球智能车行业都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzOTE3Nzc5MA==&mid=2247529854&idx=2&sn=af93f8c9610ea372f0fcc9c8f5bff704&chksm=c3e673a7c2c455addcca87fa5650bd3081268ea70535a6e709fac78549d6330ffef9e4b54b11&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75856ca600aa7110c9cdf0d842b9cef3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzOTE3Nzc5MA==&mid=2247529854&idx=2&sn=af93f8c9610ea372f0fcc9c8f5bff704&chksm=c3e673a7c2c455addcca87fa5650bd3081268ea70535a6e709fac78549d6330ffef9e4b54b11&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199422668","content_text":"放核弹之前，马斯克搞了一次小小的“试爆”。刚刚透露了特斯拉下一代车载计算平台的信息：不叫HW5.0，直接改名叫AI5。能耗提升5倍，算力提升10倍。为啥不叫HW5.0？有啥提升HW其实就是Hardware的缩写，字面上自动驾驶系统硬件的意思。这应该是早期马斯克直接把内部工程项目的代号拿来当产品名称了。创业阶段初出茅庐，这样搞挺好，凸显特斯拉技术宅、工程师基因。但现在特斯拉家大业大，全球智能车行业都在模仿和试图超越，再这么随意，好像也不太合适。于是马斯克宣布，我们改名啦，新一代自动驾驶硬件平台，名字就叫——AI5。这属于是自动驾驶第一性原理命名法了。老马透露的相关信息还有这些：首先是算力比现款HW4.0提升10倍。其次是功耗整体提高4-5倍。2025年下半年推出。有这么几个点值得留意。算力方面，马斯克特别提到整个平台的算力大概是HW4.0的10倍。其实特斯拉从未明确公布过HW4.0的具体数据，只是说是HW3.0的5倍（国内三方资料中的750TOPS数据无官方证实），所以根据已知信息和国外发烧友的实机拆解测试，大概可以推测出HW4.0的算力在300TOPS-500TOPS之间。也就是单颗FSD芯片200多TOPS算力。这样计算，AI5整个平台算力可能达到3000-5000TOPS。这个数据是十分恐怖的。目前国内的TOP玩家，比如华为、小鹏等等，支撑无图、轻图城市NOA功能的算力平台，不过就在400-500TOPS左右。“芯皇”英伟达Thor，顶配才2000多TOPS，而且业内已经有很多意见认为量产车并不需要如此过剩的算力。马斯克到底是在“放卫星”提振外界对特斯拉的信心，还是真的对自动驾驶技术范式做出了革命性变革，是个很大的悬念和看点。第二个值得留意的是能耗方面。马斯克提到五代硬件平台，整体能耗比HW4.0提升4-5倍，相比于10倍的性能提升，其实证明特斯拉自动驾驶软硬结合能力更进一步，能耗控制更合理了。还要补充一点，车载计算芯片和手机计算芯片的不同之一，就是可以无后顾之忧的打“富裕仗”，不必过于把能耗、尺寸作为衡量优劣的指标。车载计算平台的散热条件，天然也比PC、手机优良得多。毕竟电动车的电池容量远大于手机，而且就算芯片能耗再高，相比于电机、空调等等，也只能算零头。还有一点容易被忽略，马斯克说AI5是“特斯拉最新一代计算平台”，但是严谨地说，特斯拉的业务就仅仅只有汽车吗？所以这也是大部分网友推测的依据：AI5很可能并不是专门为FSD准备，如此高的算力，匹配的可能是今年8月即将发布的特斯拉Robotaxi、人形机器人Optimus，以及未来支持L4、L5的特斯拉车型。也许那个时候的特斯拉产品，真的会取消驾驶舱。不过也有用户提了一个很尖锐的问题：之前HW3.0面世时，马斯克就拍胸脯保证可以实现无监督的FSD功能，但显然是鸽了。直到今天的HW4.0仍然不行。AI5就一定可以吗？AI5会带来什么样的改变？现在已知的信息并不多，只有一点是较为确定的，AI5由三星代工，4nm工艺。最早特斯拉曾表示过100%给台积电代工，不过后来马斯克和三星高层见了一面后，又改了最初的决定。据说是三星给马斯克开了一个“没法拒绝”的优惠价格，而且先进制程的良品率提升到70%多，和台积电相差不多了。所以可以基本肯定，AI5仍然会采用基于Exynos-IP的内核。Exynos-IP是三星基于ARM构架设计的自有IP，谷歌的手机也用过。2019年三星因为和高通合作，就停止了相关工作，不过Exynos-IP设计非常超前，基本上近似于目前ARM Cortex X系列的旗舰X3的设计，所以2020年之后才开始设计的HW4.0，经国外特斯拉爆料大神Greentheonly拆解发现，仍然采用了Exynos-IP。AI5很可能延续这个路线。当然，今时不同往日，自动驾驶算法的技术范式已经发生了深刻变革，从最初的CNN为为主的模块化网络结构，转变为以Transformer为主的端到端一体化网络。外界通常更加关心自动驾驶芯片的NPU算力，这本身没错，大模型时代，当然需要更强的AI计算能力。但对于自动驾驶任务来说，光NPU变强还不够，AI处理器的速度再快，算力再高，如果90%的时间都是在等内存搬运数据，那也是白搭。CNN时代外置CPU足以配合好AI处理器，但到了Transformer，CPU反而成了瓶颈，内置成了最佳选择。实际上，HW4.0就是添加了一个CPU以应对Transformer，刚好和特斯拉超算芯片Dojo的D1架构原理相同。这也就解释了马斯克在剧透AI5的同时，还特意强调了HW4.0不是直接退役，而是拿去构建训练集群（和英伟达A100同时服役）。所以特斯拉对于下一代计算平台AI5的安排和带来的影响，大概也能推测一二了。AI5的超大算力，极大可能不是单一芯片或双芯片实现，而是多个下一代4nm FSD芯片组合的结果。如果真是单颗/双颗芯片数千TOPS算力，成本就会到几乎无法量产，不是汽车工业也不是科技行业的玩法。这也就说明，AI5很有可能是一个平台方案，根据任务、场景、产品成本要求不同，“丰俭由马斯克”。最复杂的人形机器人，可能会用到数千TOPS算力，Robotaxi可能就会低一点。相应的，特斯拉量产车可能会更低。至于完全无监督的FSD在车端到底需要多大算力支持，可能马斯克自己现在也不清楚，仍在摸索中。“端到端”最合理最高效的模式，到底是全部AI模型化，做成一个大黑盒，还是有条件的、逐步一体化，业内也没有定论。AI5最终体现在特斯拉量产车的算力有多大，不好判断，但肯定大于现在的四五百TOPS。所以AI5带来的冲击和影响，最直接的是开启智能汽车、自动驾驶的算力军备竞赛。全行业玩家在这样的竞赛过程中，逐渐就会明确端到端自动驾驶的实现基本前提和门槛。L4也是同样，AI5在特斯拉的Robotaxi上的探索和试错，作用也相当于量产车，那就是给Robotaxi的落地打造出一个样板：多大算力、什么样的方案配置、多少成本。更重要的，是特斯拉身体力行为所有“AGI”玩家打样：需要什么样的技术体系，底层通用平台如何打造，云端终端的架构分别怎么选择…","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188287282,"gmtCreate":1623449027546,"gmtModify":1623449027546,"author":{"id":"3555510537311432","authorId":"3555510537311432","name":"心想事成ljx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555510537311432","idStr":"3555510537311432"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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