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定投改变未来
2020-10-21
$跟谁学(GSX)$
小崽子守你一个月了,就知道你会跌回75去,果然没让我失望[吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜]
定投改变未来
2020-10-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
还有王法吗?还有法律吗??
定投改变未来
2020-08-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
早晨起来一看,我他么惊呆了[惊吓] ,昨晚16.5就拿不住了,草率了
定投改变未来
2020-08-28
$蔚来(NIO)$
今天一定要跌到15.5,我再把手里的PUT出掉,再全仓买进[财迷] 大家都来支持我来[开心] [开心] 感谢大家的支持,一起发财
定投改变未来
2020-08-29
$蔚来(NIO)$
有些人整天的在这里叽叽歪歪,一直涨吧 你就心想老子买你股票涨就是应该的,只要有点浮动就开始骂了,我问问这些人三四天涨幅百分之30应该!两天跌百分之十就受不了,这样别炒股了!就算蔚来现在跌倒7块一股,心里毫无波澜的人才能成为最后赢家[吃瓜] [吃瓜]
定投改变未来
2020-08-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
16.5已经卖掉了,我靠还往上拉,[难过]
定投改变未来
2020-10-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
短期空起来,没毛病[捂脸] 始终看好蔚来,跌到23左右,再做多[贱笑] [贱笑] 再
定投改变未来
2020-08-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
今天回调到15.5左右,
定投改变未来
2020-09-18
$跟谁学(GSX)$
敢涨到140,我就敢丫的全仓做空[贱笑]
定投改变未来
2020-11-24
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
年轻人不讲武德,耗子尾汁,我做空你你就上天
定投改变未来
2020-08-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
过了今天之后就一波空单,等跌到15左右在做多,妥妥[财迷]
定投改变未来
2020-08-30
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我觉得老虎应该发威了,只要是某个好股票在一片看跌声中肯定大涨,某个股票都贪婪的无法自拔时肯定会跌[吃瓜] [吃瓜]
定投改变未来
2020-08-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
16.5卖出了[开心]
定投改变未来
2020-08-31
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我凑,出乎意料啊,这刚重仓了就跌的我错手不及[笑哭] [笑哭]
定投改变未来
2020-08-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
我猜的没错的话,这批追涨的 杀跌的韭菜应该快出来骂街了因为都是买在最高点[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
定投改变未来
2020-06-18
中国房价未来会呈现两极分化趋势,三四线城市房价会贬值,而一线大城市房价会一直坚挺,由中国人口决定的,未来全国的精英人口会流向大城市!
美联储在玩儿大型“割韭菜”,就看泡沫何时破了
定投改变未来
2020-11-24
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
我要做空小鹏,谁也不要拦我[流泪]
定投改变未来
2020-10-14
$小牛电动(NIU)$
小牛🐂疯了吧,涨这么猛
定投改变未来
2020-09-07
$58同城(WUBA)$
58同城,一个垃圾的网站,充的余额一年没用完,就给清零,谁给你的权利??置顶帖子一天五六十块钱,都不够回本的,越做越烂了,也不知道老板怎么想的只看眼前,一点长远战略眼光都没有,我在58开的三个账号年度会员,加一年几万余额,连本回不了!垃圾早晚退市[愤怒] [愤怒]
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[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971192895","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971311100,"gmtCreate":1598861680100,"gmtModify":1704220297878,"author":{"id":"3554701825276009","authorId":"3554701825276009","name":"定投改变未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f988d99f8359610622850731a81e9df7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554701825276009","authorIdStr":"3554701825276009"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我猜的没错的话,这批追涨的 杀跌的韭菜应该快出来骂街了因为都是买在最高点[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我猜的没错的话,这批追涨的 杀跌的韭菜应该快出来骂街了因为都是买在最高点[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$我猜的没错的话,这批追涨的 杀跌的韭菜应该快出来骂街了因为都是买在最高点[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971311100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955268369,"gmtCreate":1592442099051,"gmtModify":1704199306062,"author":{"id":"3554701825276009","authorId":"3554701825276009","name":"定投改变未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f988d99f8359610622850731a81e9df7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554701825276009","authorIdStr":"3554701825276009"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国房价未来会呈现两极分化趋势,三四线城市房价会贬值,而一线大城市房价会一直坚挺,由中国人口决定的,未来全国的精英人口会流向大城市!","listText":"中国房价未来会呈现两极分化趋势,三四线城市房价会贬值,而一线大城市房价会一直坚挺,由中国人口决定的,未来全国的精英人口会流向大城市!","text":"中国房价未来会呈现两极分化趋势,三四线城市房价会贬值,而一线大城市房价会一直坚挺,由中国人口决定的,未来全国的精英人口会流向大城市!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955268369","repostId":"1172240737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172240737","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1592401561,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172240737?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-17 21:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储在玩儿大型“割韭菜”,就看泡沫何时破了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172240737","media":"金十数据","summary":"想靠市场泡沫盈利的交易者,最终难免也会被泡沫所伤。","content":"<p>经济衰退风险此起彼伏,各大市场波涛汹涌,如果你的银行账户里有闲钱,你会拿来干嘛?</p><p><b>美国人给出的第一个答案是,买股票。这样做的原因也很简单——有美联储托底。</b>金融咨询公司deVere Group的首席执行官奈杰尔•格林(Nigel Green)表示,美联储购买ETF、单个公司债等额外的刺激措施对部分股票起到了明显支撑作用,而且市场普遍预期美联储还将提供进一步支持。</p><blockquote>“投资者最近一直在增加自己的持仓规模,因为随着股市继续走高,未来的进场点位将不可避免地上升,所以不少人认为必须抓紧时间、抓住机会及早入场。”</blockquote><p><b>另一个答案,很是令人意外——垃圾债。</b>不用多说,我们都知道美联储有多重视债市。美联储最近再次测试市场的极限,开启购买单个企业债的新计划。自此之后,债市人气暴涨,曾经的“堕落天使”居然也聚拢了大量追捧者。</p><p>然而,一个不可忽视的事实是,<b>不管美联储采取什么行动,经济V型复苏的可能性都微乎其微。</b>美联储的扶助,也不太可能提振所有企业和行业。</p><p>因此,美联储如今的托市政策,从某种意义上讲更像是一场大型“诱割韭菜”行动。待市场泡沫被挤爆时,谁又能逃出生天?</p><p><span>01</span> <span>加仓!美联储成功吸引大批接盘侠入场</span></p><p>正如上文所说,将大量接近于零收益的现金储蓄存在银行账户中,对美国民众来说毫无作用。再加上美国国债收益率处于谷底,市场上缺乏更好的投资品种,所以波动极大的股市也好,违约风险极高的企业债市场也好,都吸引了大量资本注入。</p><p>以股市为例,贝莱德多元资产策略团队收入投资主管、贝莱德多元资产收入基金BIICX基金经理迈克尔•弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示:</p><p>“近段时间,我们看到了令人印象深刻的股市反弹,虽然不确定性依然存在,但情况已略有改善。因此, <b>我们现在愿意逐步增加风险敞口。</b>”</p><p>虽然上个星期市场又开始剧烈波动,周四道指大跌近千点,但仅花了两个交易日便收复绝大部分失地。很明显,美联储在当中发挥了重要作用。</p><p>格林表示,精明的投资者将继续增加自己的仓位,因为美联储的支持可能会持续数年,而不是几个季度。数据显示,<b>截至5月底,对冲基金的净股票敞口飙升至52%,为去年9月18日以来的最高水平,接近纪录高位。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc354e581fea86f12d0aa684854ffe40\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"538\"></p><p>值得留意的是,除了美联储的托底之外,美国消费、就业和制造业数据均出现温和改善,前景向好。接下来,投资者可能会出现越来越强烈的加仓意愿。</p><p><span>02</span> <span>美联储的难处有谁懂?</span></p><p>因为有美联储托底就盲目加仓,到底对不对?最近两周的行情,可以为我们提供一个很好的参考。</p><p>股小盘股在4天内大跌15%,随后在不到24小时之后反弹超10%。原因在于美联储迫于压力宣布立即实施企业债购买计划,时机把握得相当好。</p><p>很明显,<b>美联储不会容忍市场下跌,更害怕失去对自己亲手制造的资产泡沫的控制。</b>那么问题来了——虽然很多分析师都在抨击美联储制造泡沫,但是有没有人想过,美联储为何那么紧张市场的控制权?</p><p>事实上,美联储在本轮危机期间对市场的干预程度是历史罕见的,迄今为止已经砸出了数万亿美元。直接购买企业债、间接干预股市、将美债货币化……一系列操作过后,<b>美联储现在等于成为了美国的存钱罐。</b></p><p>如今美国正处于结构性萧条状态,所有增长都是靠债务融资来维持的。数据显示,<b>美国联邦债务可能最快在明年突破30亿美元大关。</b>而这个依赖债务融资的增长模式,完全靠美联储的刺激政策和流动性注入来维持运转。</p><p>时至今日,不会再有那么多经济学家坚持经济会出现V型复苏。那些对未来3年的收入和经济增长做出大胆预测的分析师,也开始认清事实,抛弃盲目乐观。事实上,未来几年失业率预计仍将居高不下。这就是为什么美联储不顾市场泡沫膨胀,坚持加强干预的原因。</p><p><b>换句话说,美联储不仅一手制造了巨大的市场泡沫,而且也开始依赖泡沫。</b></p><p><span>03</span> <span>泡沫什么时候破裂?</span></p><p>金十此前曾报道,美银最新基金经理调查显示,<b>78%的受访者认为市场被高估,这一数字创下历史新高。</b>也有超过半数的基金经理认为如今股市只是处于熊市反弹阶段,出现大幅回调的可能性很高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfe455f5453ba4e73aaa7986009d7b8\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"460\"></p><p>既然市场被高估是一个共识,那么接下来我们就需要分析一个问题:泡沫什么时候破裂?</p><p>蒙特利尔银行利率策略师林根(Ian Lyngen)指出,最近几年美联储的货币政策常常失效,无法达到预期效果,原因在于政策制定者十分面临很大的通胀压力。<b>正因如此,美联储此前一直十分依赖资产价格通胀的上升,并希望借此推高整体通胀率。</b></p><p>但自股市在3月底触底之后,这种动态平衡就被打破,美联储对资产价格的依赖减弱。在通胀回升无望的情况下,美联储的行动只能盯着就业这个唯一风向标。<b>一旦美国就业市场出现持续反弹并企稳迹象,哪怕股市出现投机过热现象以及系统性崩溃风险,恐怕也无法阻止鲍威尔转变政策。</b></p><p>失去了美联储的庇护之后,市场会出现什么惨状?相信大家都不难想象了。</p><p><span>04</span> <span>总结:风险已经相当明显</span></p><p>在大西洋彼岸,欧洲央行也通过前所未有的疯狂放水挽救了濒临崩溃的市场。欧央行通过向银行注入大量资金,同时放松对欧洲主权债务的限制,力图稳定资本市场。</p><p>这样做的效果是明显的,欧元区银行的利润得到保障。但后遗症也是很可怕了,<b>因为这会削弱银行的抗压能力,增加信贷风险。</b></p><p>央行一直放水并鼓励银行增加放贷规模,但由于借贷人的审查门槛下调,违约可能性也会随之上升。由于长时间生活在低利率环境中,欧元区银行的抗风险能力和盈利状况十分不理想。</p><p>美国本来是没有这种烦恼的,因为这里拥有全球最庞大的金融市场和实力最雄厚的大型银行。但别忘了,<b>现在这些银行也生活在零利率的环境里,一些以往被忽视的问题,可能会变得愈发严重。</b></p><p>如今市场暴力反弹,大量游资注入,掩盖了许多问题。不过正如上文分析的那样,泡沫总有破裂的时候。到那时候,如今狂热的多头,恐怕就会变成一群被割的韭菜。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储在玩儿大型“割韭菜”,就看泡沫何时破了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-17 21:46 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/61166><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经济衰退风险此起彼伏,各大市场波涛汹涌,如果你的银行账户里有闲钱,你会拿来干嘛?美国人给出的第一个答案是,买股票。这样做的原因也很简单——有美联储托底。金融咨询公司deVere Group的首席执行官奈杰尔•格林(Nigel Green)表示,美联储购买ETF、单个公司债等额外的刺激措施对部分股票起到了明显支撑作用,而且市场普遍预期美联储还将提供进一步支持。“投资者最近一直在增加自己的持仓规模,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/61166\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/61166","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172240737","content_text":"经济衰退风险此起彼伏,各大市场波涛汹涌,如果你的银行账户里有闲钱,你会拿来干嘛?美国人给出的第一个答案是,买股票。这样做的原因也很简单——有美联储托底。金融咨询公司deVere Group的首席执行官奈杰尔•格林(Nigel Green)表示,美联储购买ETF、单个公司债等额外的刺激措施对部分股票起到了明显支撑作用,而且市场普遍预期美联储还将提供进一步支持。“投资者最近一直在增加自己的持仓规模,因为随着股市继续走高,未来的进场点位将不可避免地上升,所以不少人认为必须抓紧时间、抓住机会及早入场。”另一个答案,很是令人意外——垃圾债。不用多说,我们都知道美联储有多重视债市。美联储最近再次测试市场的极限,开启购买单个企业债的新计划。自此之后,债市人气暴涨,曾经的“堕落天使”居然也聚拢了大量追捧者。然而,一个不可忽视的事实是,不管美联储采取什么行动,经济V型复苏的可能性都微乎其微。美联储的扶助,也不太可能提振所有企业和行业。因此,美联储如今的托市政策,从某种意义上讲更像是一场大型“诱割韭菜”行动。待市场泡沫被挤爆时,谁又能逃出生天?01 加仓!美联储成功吸引大批接盘侠入场正如上文所说,将大量接近于零收益的现金储蓄存在银行账户中,对美国民众来说毫无作用。再加上美国国债收益率处于谷底,市场上缺乏更好的投资品种,所以波动极大的股市也好,违约风险极高的企业债市场也好,都吸引了大量资本注入。以股市为例,贝莱德多元资产策略团队收入投资主管、贝莱德多元资产收入基金BIICX基金经理迈克尔•弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示:“近段时间,我们看到了令人印象深刻的股市反弹,虽然不确定性依然存在,但情况已略有改善。因此, 我们现在愿意逐步增加风险敞口。”虽然上个星期市场又开始剧烈波动,周四道指大跌近千点,但仅花了两个交易日便收复绝大部分失地。很明显,美联储在当中发挥了重要作用。格林表示,精明的投资者将继续增加自己的仓位,因为美联储的支持可能会持续数年,而不是几个季度。数据显示,截至5月底,对冲基金的净股票敞口飙升至52%,为去年9月18日以来的最高水平,接近纪录高位。值得留意的是,除了美联储的托底之外,美国消费、就业和制造业数据均出现温和改善,前景向好。接下来,投资者可能会出现越来越强烈的加仓意愿。02 美联储的难处有谁懂?因为有美联储托底就盲目加仓,到底对不对?最近两周的行情,可以为我们提供一个很好的参考。股小盘股在4天内大跌15%,随后在不到24小时之后反弹超10%。原因在于美联储迫于压力宣布立即实施企业债购买计划,时机把握得相当好。很明显,美联储不会容忍市场下跌,更害怕失去对自己亲手制造的资产泡沫的控制。那么问题来了——虽然很多分析师都在抨击美联储制造泡沫,但是有没有人想过,美联储为何那么紧张市场的控制权?事实上,美联储在本轮危机期间对市场的干预程度是历史罕见的,迄今为止已经砸出了数万亿美元。直接购买企业债、间接干预股市、将美债货币化……一系列操作过后,美联储现在等于成为了美国的存钱罐。如今美国正处于结构性萧条状态,所有增长都是靠债务融资来维持的。数据显示,美国联邦债务可能最快在明年突破30亿美元大关。而这个依赖债务融资的增长模式,完全靠美联储的刺激政策和流动性注入来维持运转。时至今日,不会再有那么多经济学家坚持经济会出现V型复苏。那些对未来3年的收入和经济增长做出大胆预测的分析师,也开始认清事实,抛弃盲目乐观。事实上,未来几年失业率预计仍将居高不下。这就是为什么美联储不顾市场泡沫膨胀,坚持加强干预的原因。换句话说,美联储不仅一手制造了巨大的市场泡沫,而且也开始依赖泡沫。03 泡沫什么时候破裂?金十此前曾报道,美银最新基金经理调查显示,78%的受访者认为市场被高估,这一数字创下历史新高。也有超过半数的基金经理认为如今股市只是处于熊市反弹阶段,出现大幅回调的可能性很高。既然市场被高估是一个共识,那么接下来我们就需要分析一个问题:泡沫什么时候破裂?蒙特利尔银行利率策略师林根(Ian Lyngen)指出,最近几年美联储的货币政策常常失效,无法达到预期效果,原因在于政策制定者十分面临很大的通胀压力。正因如此,美联储此前一直十分依赖资产价格通胀的上升,并希望借此推高整体通胀率。但自股市在3月底触底之后,这种动态平衡就被打破,美联储对资产价格的依赖减弱。在通胀回升无望的情况下,美联储的行动只能盯着就业这个唯一风向标。一旦美国就业市场出现持续反弹并企稳迹象,哪怕股市出现投机过热现象以及系统性崩溃风险,恐怕也无法阻止鲍威尔转变政策。失去了美联储的庇护之后,市场会出现什么惨状?相信大家都不难想象了。04 总结:风险已经相当明显在大西洋彼岸,欧洲央行也通过前所未有的疯狂放水挽救了濒临崩溃的市场。欧央行通过向银行注入大量资金,同时放松对欧洲主权债务的限制,力图稳定资本市场。这样做的效果是明显的,欧元区银行的利润得到保障。但后遗症也是很可怕了,因为这会削弱银行的抗压能力,增加信贷风险。央行一直放水并鼓励银行增加放贷规模,但由于借贷人的审查门槛下调,违约可能性也会随之上升。由于长时间生活在低利率环境中,欧元区银行的抗风险能力和盈利状况十分不理想。美国本来是没有这种烦恼的,因为这里拥有全球最庞大的金融市场和实力最雄厚的大型银行。但别忘了,现在这些银行也生活在零利率的环境里,一些以往被忽视的问题,可能会变得愈发严重。如今市场暴力反弹,大量游资注入,掩盖了许多问题。不过正如上文分析的那样,泡沫总有破裂的时候。到那时候,如今狂热的多头,恐怕就会变成一群被割的韭菜。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399416797,"gmtCreate":1606173971919,"gmtModify":1703841375125,"author":{"id":"3554701825276009","authorId":"3554701825276009","name":"定投改变未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f988d99f8359610622850731a81e9df7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554701825276009","authorIdStr":"3554701825276009"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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