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Harunko
2020-07-31
$苹果(AAPL)$
$苹果(AAPL)$怎么样
Harunko
2020-07-20
$阿灵顿资产投资公司(AI)$
沪深股指
Harunko
2020-07-20
$蔚来(NIO)$ 做一个粗略而简单的测算,假设蔚来年销量突破10万,收入达800亿rmb,净利率达到 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 最近一个Q的1%,给100倍PE,市值就是800亿rmb,大概114亿美金,低于但接近目前的市值。关键的就是你认为蔚来几年内能达到10万销量,2019年2万,2020Q1将近4k,而特斯拉2019整体销量已经36万,理想ONE从2019推出至今销量1万+,宝马X3的2019销量12万+。个人的认为蔚来和 $理想汽车(LI)$ 的销量攀升,超预期是大概率事件,很可能远超想象,只有规模上来才可能单用户降低服务成本,很可能也就2-3年,就能达到。
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的销量攀升,超预期是大概率事件,很可能远超想象,只有规模上来才可能单用户降低服务成本,很可能也就2-3年,就能达到。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/948987515","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515543156510844","authorId":"3515543156510844","name":"Hero_23","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150232f315ba62b70979a8dac77a5fca","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"目前阶段的新能源汽车估值不能用市盈率来衡量,也不能用特斯拉和蔚来横向对比,阶段不一样。如果非要比,几个点要考虑。一个是特斯拉作为行业绝对领先者溢价;一个是蔚来作为现在、将来汽车市场绝对第一的头部品牌,怎样给溢价。 个人观点就是近期看估值不算低也不算高了,但是长期看至少在中国市场,国产品牌和特斯拉在电动车领域还是可以一较高下的。我觉得特斯拉大概率卖不过国产品牌。","text":"目前阶段的新能源汽车估值不能用市盈率来衡量,也不能用特斯拉和蔚来横向对比,阶段不一样。如果非要比,几个点要考虑。一个是特斯拉作为行业绝对领先者溢价;一个是蔚来作为现在、将来汽车市场绝对第一的头部品牌,怎样给溢价。 个人观点就是近期看估值不算低也不算高了,但是长期看至少在中国市场,国产品牌和特斯拉在电动车领域还是可以一较高下的。我觉得特斯拉大概率卖不过国产品牌。","html":"目前阶段的新能源汽车估值不能用市盈率来衡量,也不能用特斯拉和蔚来横向对比,阶段不一样。如果非要比,几个点要考虑。一个是特斯拉作为行业绝对领先者溢价;一个是蔚来作为现在、将来汽车市场绝对第一的头部品牌,怎样给溢价。 个人观点就是近期看估值不算低也不算高了,但是长期看至少在中国市场,国产品牌和特斯拉在电动车领域还是可以一较高下的。我觉得特斯拉大概率卖不过国产品牌。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":948987515,"gmtCreate":1595228407037,"gmtModify":1704208113197,"author":{"id":"3553817520149840","authorId":"3553817520149840","name":"Harunko","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 做一个粗略而简单的测算,假设蔚来年销量突破10万,收入达800亿rmb,净利率达到 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 最近一个Q的1%,给100倍PE,市值就是800亿rmb,大概114亿美金,低于但接近目前的市值。关键的就是你认为蔚来几年内能达到10万销量,2019年2万,2020Q1将近4k,而特斯拉2019整体销量已经36万,理想ONE从2019推出至今销量1万+,宝马X3的2019销量12万+。个人的认为蔚来和 $理想汽车(LI)$ 的销量攀升,超预期是大概率事件,很可能远超想象,只有规模上来才可能单用户降低服务成本,很可能也就2-3年,就能达到。","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 做一个粗略而简单的测算,假设蔚来年销量突破10万,收入达800亿rmb,净利率达到 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 最近一个Q的1%,给100倍PE,市值就是800亿rmb,大概114亿美金,低于但接近目前的市值。关键的就是你认为蔚来几年内能达到10万销量,2019年2万,2020Q1将近4k,而特斯拉2019整体销量已经36万,理想ONE从2019推出至今销量1万+,宝马X3的2019销量12万+。个人的认为蔚来和 $理想汽车(LI)$ 的销量攀升,超预期是大概率事件,很可能远超想象,只有规模上来才可能单用户降低服务成本,很可能也就2-3年,就能达到。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 做一个粗略而简单的测算,假设蔚来年销量突破10万,收入达800亿rmb,净利率达到 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 最近一个Q的1%,给100倍PE,市值就是800亿rmb,大概114亿美金,低于但接近目前的市值。关键的就是你认为蔚来几年内能达到10万销量,2019年2万,2020Q1将近4k,而特斯拉2019整体销量已经36万,理想ONE从2019推出至今销量1万+,宝马X3的2019销量12万+。个人的认为蔚来和 $理想汽车(LI)$ 的销量攀升,超预期是大概率事件,很可能远超想象,只有规模上来才可能单用户降低服务成本,很可能也就2-3年,就能达到。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/948987515","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515543156510844","authorId":"3515543156510844","name":"Hero_23","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150232f315ba62b70979a8dac77a5fca","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"目前阶段的新能源汽车估值不能用市盈率来衡量,也不能用特斯拉和蔚来横向对比,阶段不一样。如果非要比,几个点要考虑。一个是特斯拉作为行业绝对领先者溢价;一个是蔚来作为现在、将来汽车市场绝对第一的头部品牌,怎样给溢价。 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